FOREIGN POLICY and the DEMOCRATIC PARTY in 2020 Dougal Robinson September 2019 Table of Contents
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020 Dougal Robinson September 2019 Table of contents
The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated Executive summary 01 to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, Introduction 02 economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics Foreign policy: Rarely the dominant 04 shaping America — and critically — their implications for issue in US presidential elections Australia. The candidates 06 United States Studies Centre The key issues for Australia 13 Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Foreign policy in the general election 17 Australia Endnotes 18 Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] About the author 25 Twitter: @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au
This report may be cited as: Dougal Robinson, “The frontrunners: Foreign policy and the Democratic Party in 2020,” United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, September 2019.
Reports published by the United States Studies Centre are anonymously peer-reviewed by both internal and external experts. Cover photo: (L-R) Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Kamala Harris during the second night of the first Democratic presidential debate, June 2019 (Getty) UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Executive summary
The Democratic Party’s foreign policy platform is getting tougher on China and simultaneously growing more sceptical of the utility of free trade, high defence spending, and US leadership in the Middle East.
Consequently, Australia will likely face more difficult decisions hedging between Washington and Beijing, regardless of which candidate wins the 2020 election.
Although Democratic primaries always feature a pull to the left, the trend is more pronounced now than in recent cycles due to the strength of the party’s progressive wing.
The leading progressives, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, propose significant changes to President Obama’s foreign policy platform.
President Trump is unlikely to achieve major domestic successes before the election, so many of his most notable actions in the lead up to the general election in November 2020 — and what he will see as an electoral strength — will likely be foreign policy.
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Introduction
The Democratic Party is adopting a tougher approach example of bipartisan consensus between President to China and moving left on many issues of great Trump and Democrats in highly polarised Washington. consequence to Australia, including trade and defence Democrats broadly support President Trump’s spending. Since the end of the Cold War, foreign confrontational approach towards Beijing, though not policy centrists have led a party committed to liberal all of his methods. Moreover, Democrats use tough talk internationalism, alliances, and to some degree, free on China to build a greater sense of domestic unity in trade. In this presidential election cycle, more left- a fractured polity. Yet there are striking inconsistencies leaning ‘progressives’ such as Senators Elizabeth in Democrats’ approach to China, particularly that Warren and Bernie Sanders enjoy enthusiastic support they are calling for a tougher approach to China while and are pulling the party’s platform to the left on remaining hesitant, at best, about supporting high domestic and foreign policy. defence spending and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Unlike more centrist Democrats such as Joe Biden, progressives are sceptical or even hostile towards If a Democratic president is sworn in on 20 January free trade agreements and vocal in their calls to cut 2021, they will likely have won the Oval Office on a the defence budget. platform that is far more assertive towards China than In this election cycle, the Obama administration’s, and to the left of the last There are striking inconsistencies centrists and progressives two Democratic presidents on most foreign policy agree on foreign policy issues. Joe Biden, President Obama’s vice president, in Democrats’ approach to China, positions such as opposing is adopting a more competitive tone towards China and particularly that they are calling authoritarianism, reducing seeking to mollify criticism from progressives on issues for a tougher approach to China support for non-democratic such as the TPP. The leading progressives, Elizabeth while remaining hesitant, at allies, and raising the Warren and Bernie Sanders, propose major changes prominence of human to President Obama’s foreign policy platform. For best, about supporting high rights and climate change this wing of the Democratic Party, the 44th president defence spending and the in foreign policy.1 The key tolerated a rigged global economy and authoritarian Trans-Pacific Partnership. question for allies like regimes, and spent far too much on defence.2 The Australia is whether the other major candidates at this point — California current move to the left Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana Mayor on foreign policy translates into a new and lasting Pete Buttigieg — are responding to the prevalent Democratic Party foreign policy consensus, and political winds by talking tough on China, but seeking to perhaps a president whose foreign policy is to the left distance themselves from the Obama administration’s of the Obama and Clinton administrations. role in the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and trade agreements that are perceived as overly favourable Concurrently, the shift to a more confrontational tone towards big business. With a field that at one point towards China is highly noteworthy and driven by numbered 25 candidates, and the vast majority of concerns over economic issues, human rights and Democratic voters yet to decide on their preferred to a lesser extent, geopolitics. Democrats lament job candidate, the outcome of the Democratic primary is losses due to Beijing’s economic policies and criticise highly uncertain.3 But the foreign policy contours are China’s record on intellectual property. The increasingly becoming clear, and they will help shape the 2020 authoritarian nature of the Chinese Communist Party, election, the Democratic Party and US foreign policy. especially its influence operations overseas and conduct in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, are animating Australia, and other US allies and partners, must start issues for Democratic candidates who speak about considering the implications of these shifts. First, as the China in strong, often ideological terms. The China needle on China policy swings in a more competitive hardening is not a Trump-specific or a Republican-only direction across the American body politic, Australia phenomenon. Rather, getting tough on China is a rare and indeed most countries in the Indo-Pacific will
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President Barack Obama speaks about the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as Vice President Joe Biden looks on, October 2015 Photo: Getty
likely face more difficult decisions hedging between Third, as Democrats move to the left and Donald Trump Washington and Beijing. The increasingly ideological continues to remake the Republican platform, the and adversarial tone towards China means Washington gap between the United States’ two political parties will put more pressure on Canberra to stand shoulder is widening on all major foreign policy issues except to shoulder on issues that are highly sensitive for the China and trade policy.4 In turn, the United States will Chinese Communist Party, including Taiwan, Hong be a less consistent ally, with bigger shifts between Kong and Xinjiang. administrations of different political persuasions and lower prospects that foreign policy initiatives from one Second, the foreign policy platform of the Democratic administration will carry over, just as President Trump Party is no longer dominated by centrist figures who walked away from the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris are well known to Australia, such as Barack Obama, climate accords and the TPP. Bill and Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and John Kerry. There is the very real prospect that a Democratic candidate relatively unknown to allies and partners, with limited experience in foreign policy, or promising wholesale changes to foreign policy, triumphs in the general election. Indeed, this is the norm in recent presidential politics. All four US presidents elected after the Cold War — Presidents Donald Trump, Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton — won their first presidential term with a very thin foreign policy resume.
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Foreign policy: Rarely the dominant issue in US presidential elections
Foreign policy rarely determines who wins the do speak directly about foreign policy, they tend Democratic or Republican Party nomination or the to pivot back to their domestic platform,8 or craft general election because it is far less important to soundbite-length interjections to land blows on fellow American voters than more immediate concerns candidates or President Trump.9 For foreign policy to such as healthcare, the state of the economy, taxes be a major issue in primaries or the general election, or immigration. Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump all it generally needs to be a single, relatively clear-cut campaigned for their first term in the Oval Office by issue such as whether a candidate supported the Iraq promising to focus on nation building at home and do War.10 More broadly, foreign policy plays a role insofar less in the world, regardless of how they governed. as all frontline candidates face the ‘Commander- Public opinion surveys, Democratic candidates’ in-Chief’ test: whether Americans would trust the stump speeches and candidate to be the commander in chief of the US party debates all suggest military. However, in the 2016 election, polls showed American voters across both this trend is continuing in voters trusted Hillary Clinton more than Donald 5 Trump to be commander in chief, yet Trump was parties want US foreign the 2020 election cycle. A May 2019 survey by effective in neutralising this gap by using Clinton’s policy to focus on two key the Center for American extensive record against her, painting her as the latest objectives: firstly, protecting Progress (CAP), a incarnation of a foreign policy establishment that had the homeland and American progressive think tank in plunged the United States into endless wars and Washington, found that unpopular trade deals.11 people from external threats American voters across There are significant differences on foreign policy in (particularly terrorism), and both parties want US the Democratic field, and a wide gulf between the foreign policy to focus on secondly, protecting jobs worldview of major contenders Joe Biden and Bernie two key objectives: firstly, for American workers. Sanders. Yet, absent a war or major international crisis protecting the homeland in the next year, Democrats’ intra-party differences and American people from and their debates with President Trump are likely to external threats (particularly terrorism), and secondly, focus on domestic issues. protecting jobs for American workers.6 Perhaps the most significant finding of this poll and several others Democrats are currently spending most of their time is that a majority of Americans see China as the United and energy debating a suite of major domestic policy States’ main competitor, ahead of other countries such changes, including universal healthcare, the ‘green as Russia, Iran or North Korea. Moreover, many of the new deal’, and major immigration reform. Although key phrases used by foreign policy experts — the Democratic primaries always feature a pull to the left ‘liberal international order’, ‘fighting authoritarianism’, (and Republican primaries to the right), the trend is ‘working with allies and the international community’, more pronounced now than in recent cycles due to and ‘promoting democracy’ — all fell flat among a the strength of the party’s progressive wing. Some representative sample of voters, who “simply did but not all Democratic presidential candidates are not understand what any of these phrases and ideas embracing previously untouchable positions such as meant or implied”.7 abolishing private health insurance, far higher taxes for the rich and softening immigration policies. Unsurprisingly, the Democratic candidates are at this point devoting relatively limited speaking time The lack of focus on foreign policy relative to domestic to complex foreign policy matters. At this point of policy is anything but commensurate with the fact that the cycle, they are jostling with each other, trying foreign policy is the area in which the US president to make an impression with the electorate on the has greatest capacity to implement their vision. In all most important domestic issues. When Democrats likelihood, the winner of the 2020 presidential election
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will be elected on a domestic platform that will be partially or mostly stalled in Congress and perhaps The presidential the courts. President Trump’s record on domestic and foreign policy implementation is instructive. With election cycle some notable exceptions, the Trump administration’s The presidential election cycle can be domestic agenda and key campaign promises have so conceptualised in four phases. First, Democrats far been partially or entirely frustrated.12 By contrast, will be positioning until the Iowa caucus (3 President Trump has a strong record of implementing February 2020), with the remaining candidates his central foreign policy pledges from the 2016 competing for attention and the field narrowing election campaign, including putting tariffs on China, as candidates drop out. Second, the primary withdrawing from the Iran and Paris agreements, and phase will winnow the field to one nominee. recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The primaries commence with the first vote in One major difference in the Democratic Party on Iowa and last several months as all states hold foreign policy this election, relative to previous cycles, staggered votes including 15 states on Super is the influence of outside groups, particularly National Tuesday (3 March 2020), and the candidate Security Action (NSA). Founded in 2018 by Ben to be formally nominated at the Democratic Rhodes, former Deputy National Security Adviser to Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (13-16 President Obama, and Jake Sullivan, former National July 2020). Third, the Democratic nominee will Security Adviser to Vice President Biden, NSA directly compete with President Trump in the provides Democratic candidates with talking points general election phase from the convention and policy expertise to oppose President Trump. It sits until election day (3 November 2020). Fourth, at the centrist end of the Democratic Party, dedicated if a Democrat wins the election, they will be to “advancing American global leadership”.13 Rhodes in transition phase until they take the oath has said its objective is to disband in 2021 if the of office on 20 January 2021. As we get Democratic nominee wins the election.14 If a centrist further into the election cycle, the remaining wins the election, it is likely that NSA’s network of Democratic candidates and then the single more than 60 former senior officials from the Obama nominee will likely offer more fleshed-out and Clinton administrations, academic experts and foreign policy proposals. think tank leaders such as Tom Donilon, Susan Rice, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dennis McDonough and Samantha Power, will comprise much of the key foreign policy team of the incoming administration. Similarly, groups such as CAP and Middle East- focused J Street are also providing intellectual energy and talking points to Democrats.
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The frontrunners
At this stage, the five major candidates, from The differences between the candidates’ foreign centre to left on foreign policy, are Joe Biden, Pete policy positions are subtle but significant and will Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and shape the Democratic Party’s debates over coming Bernie Sanders. These candidates are well ahead of months. Although there is growing consensus on their fellow aspirants on all the key metrics, including a tougher China policy — despite candidates also polling, fundraising and name recognition. Each has a acknowledging the importance of co-operation with growing bench of foreign policy advisers. Moreover, Beijing on shared challenges such as climate change all bar Harris have thus far issued at least one major and nuclear proliferation — Democrats diverge in their foreign policy speech to bolster their commander relative emphasis on various aspects of the Chinese in chief credentials, and Warren and Sanders have Communist Party’s behaviour and key focus for US complemented their speeches with detailed essays policy towards China. Aside from the need to wind and policy proposals. It is unlikely but not impossible down the ‘forever wars’ in Iraq and Afghanistan, there that another candidate such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory are notable differences in their approach to Iran, Israel Booker or Beto O’Rourke captures the nomination, and Saudi Arabia. There is a spectrum on defence though at this stage these three and their fellow spending, from a flat budget top-line with greater ‘outsider’ candidates each focus on modernisation, to calls for lower or far lower consistently receive less spending. On trade agreements, some progressives than 5 per cent support exhibit outright hostility, whereas centrists call for The differences between the in polls of Democratic trade agreements such as the TPP to pay greater candidates’ foreign policy voters and trail far behind attention to environmental and labour provisions. positions are subtle but the frontrunners on fundraising.15 significant and will shape the Joe Biden Democratic Party’s debates There is a wide array of over coming months. similarities in Democrats’ Joe Biden has an extensive foreign policy record approach to foreign from his 44-year career in government, including as policy. If elected, a vice president during the Obama administration for Democratic president eight years, and three separate stints as chairman would immediately alter the style and much of the of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.16 The substance of President Trump’s foreign policy. To Democratic frontrunner is seeking to portray himself varying degrees, all candidates mention the need to as an elder statesman; a reliable and experienced rebuild strained ties with US allies and partners. Given choice for commander in chief. In July 2019, Biden’s President Trump’s affinity for generals, and the state campaign posted a 90-second video lambasting of civil-military relations, Democrats are in favour of Trump’s admiration for autocrats, warmongering using the military as the tool of last resort, instead towards Iran, withdrawal from the Iran and Paris emphasising the non-military tools of US international accords, and trade wars.17 The advertisement engagement, including diplomacy, trade, aid and coincided with Biden’s first significant foreign policy people-to-people links. Where President Trump speech of the campaign, at the City University of often admires authoritarian leaders, the Democratic New York, where he told the audience, “the world candidates are critical of authoritarian regimes. All sees [President] Trump for what he is: insincere, candidates champion re-entry to the Paris climate ill-informed, and impulsive. Sometimes corrupt. agreement. Similarly, Democrats widely support Dangerously incompetent, and incapable, in my re-entry to the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran, view, of world leadership and leadership at home”.18 though there would be significant hurdles involved in If elected, Biden would revert to many Obama- bringing Iran back to the negotiating table and winning era policies, pledges to renegotiate TPP to include renewed buy-in from the other parties to the deal. stronger environmental and labour protections, and
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foreign leaders and can restore a global system that Vice President Joe Biden on board the President Trump has attacked. At the Munich Security HMAS Adelaide in Conference in February 2019, Biden promised, Sydney, July 2016 “this too shall pass. We will be back”.24 He is also Photo: Getty the candidate who knows Australia best, having visited Melbourne and Sydney and addressed the United States Studies Centre and Lowy Institute in 2016, and developed relationships with many former Australian prime ministers and foreign ministers.25 Relative to the other candidates, Biden enjoys a deep bench of foreign policy advisers and has many of President Obama’s foreign policy team behind him. Consequently, Biden’s key advisers are well known to Australian officials. Ely Ratner, a leading Democrat Asia hand, China hawk and former adviser to the vice views it as a key plank of US leadership in Asia.19 president, would likely be a key figure on Asia policy in However, re-entering the TPP would require the a Biden administration. Moreover, Biden’s campaign agreement of the 11 other signatory nations (including will also receive advice from staff at the think tank Australia) and passage of the bill through Congress established in his name after he left the office: the would depend largely on Republican votes due to Penn Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania.26 the weak pro-trade constituency in the Democratic However, Biden’s extensive public record from Party.20 a lifetime of public service is also shaping as a As a major foreign policy figure in the Obama vulnerability in a Democratic Party. Rivals seek to administration, Biden has little capacity to make portray Biden as old and out of touch with America a significant break from its policies. The two key in 2019. On foreign policy, he faces the formidable differences between Biden’s comments in this challenge of defending his long record and campaign thus far and his record as vice president are simultaneously showing that he understands today’s his pledge to get tough on China and endorsement realities.27 Biden’s vulnerabilities with the Democratic of a ‘global summit for democracy’. The goal of the base include his support for TPP in the Obama summit would be to inspire a “renewal. . . of shared administration, and votes as a senator in favour of the purpose” among the world’s democracies at a time Iraq War, the North American Free Trade Agreement when autocracy seems on the march.21 Relatedly, he (NAFTA) and to establish permanent normal trade views greater unity of action among democracies as relations with China. In coming months, Biden will helpful for competing with China and his key advisers invariably seek to mollify these concerns from the left. believe that multilateral rather than unilateral pressure is the way to shape and change Beijing’s behaviour.22 During the speech, Biden explicitly declared that “we Pete Buttigieg need to get tough with China”, with the unsubtle suggestion that the United States build a “united ‘Mayor Pete’ Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, is an front” of “friends and partners to challenge China’s unlikely top-tier candidate in the Democratic primary. abusive behaviour”.23 His political identity is very different to the other frontrunners: he governs a town of 100,000 people Allies, partners and adversaries alike would view in the Midwest, is just 37 years old, gay, a veteran Biden as a stable and reliable foreign policy president. from the war in Afghanistan and a Rhodes Scholar.28 Part of Biden’s pitch is that he personally knows most Strong fundraising and decent polling have attracted
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South Bend, power in the Western Pacific, but rather on the Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg basis of a values-based scepticism of the Chinese addresses the Communist Party.32 He has called out China’s crowd at the South Carolina Democratic “techno-authoritarianism”, which is “being held up as Party State an alternative to ours [democracy] because ours looks Convention, June 2019 so chaotic compared to theirs right now because Photo: Getty of our internal divisions”. Consequently, he says, the United States must invest in its own domestic competitiveness and revitalise its democracy to improve its position relative to China.33 He views allies and partners like Australia as central to conducting this emerging ideological struggle with China.
On other foreign policy issues, Buttigieg is firmly in a number of high-profile foreign policy advisers line with the prevalent political winds in the party. to the Buttigieg campaign, led by Doug Wilson, a He plays up his opposition to the Iraq War while he former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Obama was a student at Harvard, drawing an implicit contrast 34 administration and the first openly gay Pentagon with Joe Biden, and promises to block American official confirmed by the US Senate. funding for Israeli annexation of the West Bank, an increasingly common stance among Democrats Buttigieg’s practical experience of international affairs who are likely to face criticism from Republicans for is limited, but he has started to thoughtfully engage being insufficiently supportive of Israel. Moreover, in foreign policy. In a June 2019 speech at Indiana Buttigieg frequently mentions his service in uniform University, ‘National Security for a New Era’, Buttigieg in Afghanistan in 2014 as a sign that he has “seen sought to allay fears that a young midwestern mayor first-hand the costs of our long conflict[s]” and argue was unfit to serve as commander in chief. He that it is time to end endless wars.35 started with a thinly veiled criticism of Biden and the Democratic foreign policy establishment: “For the better part of my lifetime, it has been difficult to identify Kamala Harris a consistent foreign policy in the Democratic Party.”29 Buttigieg is also unsparing in his words on President Senator Kamala Harris has the most limited foreign Trump’s foreign policy, but contends, “much was policy record of the major candidates. She was already broken when this president arrived”. Where elected to the Senate in 2016 and her prior career policy has erred, Buttigieg argued in a long-form was as the District Attorney of San Francisco and interview, is that “everything we have to say about Attorney General of California. In Washington, Harris’ foreign policy has to be tied back to what it means at involvement in international issues has been on the home”. 30 This sort of rhetoric, adopted by Buttigieg Senate Intelligence Committee, and as an outspoken and his more progressive counterparts, is increasingly voice on trade and intellectual property issues, in vogue because many voters hold the Washington typically adopting a narrow law-based approach. foreign policy establishment responsible for long wars Unlike the other frontline candidates, Harris has not in Iraq and Afghanistan, trade agreements identified yet made a major foreign policy speech or published with job losses, and rising nuclear threats posed by an essay. From a political perspective, Harris’ limited North Korea and Iran. foreign policy record is to some extent a strength, because she is at liberty to choose her positions. Buttigieg frames the China challenge as a battle of competing ideologies.31 His proposals rest not on Harris’ most notable comments on foreign policy a geopolitical ambition to remain the pre-eminent issues centre on criticism of China’s economic
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practices and her frequent calls to protect American and foreign policy. The central thrust of Warren’s democracy. As a senator from California, the home domestic message is that corporate power plays to many of America’s tech giants, Harris has urged too large a role in public policy. This has important the Trump administration to protect American ramifications for her approach to trade policy, defence technology from China.36 She has accused China of spending and management of the Pentagon.40 Warren engaging in “unfair industrial policies and outright has a very extensive record of speeches, essays and theft of American intellectual property”, and said policy proposals, calling for a more progressive, less America should address “the threat [China] presents interventionist foreign policy with a reduced role for to our economy, the threat it presents to American the private sector. If she wins the nomination, Warren workers”. 37 During the 2016 election, Harris argued would represent a wholesale break from Democratic against the TPP on the basis that it would invalidate Party foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. California’s progressive climate change and environmental laws.38 Much of her criticism of the Warren’s message rests on a rejection of the Trump administration has focused on its insufficient Washington foreign policy establishment, support defence of democracy and inappropriate links to for democracy and opposition to authoritarians, and authoritarian regimes: “We have foreign powers very explicitly connects international issues with infecting the White House like malware.”39 pocket-book issues for American voters. These themes permeate Warren’s November 2018 Foreign Affairs essay, “A Foreign Policy For All”, which opens Senator Kamala with an overt attack on recent decades of foreign Harris speaks policy: “From endless wars that strain military during her presidential families to trade policies that crush our middle class, campaign launch Washington’s foreign policy today serves the wealthy rally in California, January 2019 and well-connected at the expense of everyone Photo: Getty else.”41 If she is elected president, Warren would, like President Trump, enter office with a very clear set of foreign policy priorities and a worldview unlikely to shift.
Economic policy is the key focus for Warren’s domestic platform and her vision of America’s role in the world. She would pursue “an agenda of economic patriotism, using new and existing tools to defend and create quality American jobs and promote 42 Should Harris continue to be among the Democratic American industry”. She envisages a bigger role for frontrunners, she will likely publish an essay or make the US government in the economy, championing an a speech laying out her foreign policy platform. At that industrial policy to invest in key technologies where 43 point, outsiders will gain a far better sense of how she Chinese system may have an edge. American trade would govern if elected President. policy, Warren charges, has “worked gloriously well for elites around the world”, but it has “left working people discouraged and disaffected”.44 Warren Elizabeth Warren opposed the TPP in 2015, calling it “a rigged process” producing “a rigged outcome” and suggesting it As a former Harvard Law professor, Massachusetts would “tilt the playing field even more in favour of senator and presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren big multinational corporations and against working has built a reputation as a progressive policy wonk who families”. More recently, she voted against President champions fundamental changes to American society Trump’s renegotiated trade deal with Mexico and
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Senator Elizabeth merely line the pockets of defense contractors”.50 It Warren addresses a crowd at a is less clear how Warren would approach defence town hall event in policy on issues ranging from deterrence to support South Carolina, August 2019 for NATO. That said, Warren has been an outspoken Photo: Getty proponent of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons, a position that would represent a major change in US defence policy and arguably weaken American extended deterrence for allies, including Australia.51
Bernie Sanders
An independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders is setting the goalposts at the progressive end of the Democratic field by proposing radical Canada (the United States Mexico Canada Trade changes to domestic and foreign policy. Since his Agreement), calling it “NAFTA 2.0”.45 2016 Democratic primary loss to Hillary Clinton, Sanders has started to lay out a more comprehensive At this stage, it is unclear how, exactly, Warren would foreign policy vision that he has espoused in a range implement her vision of “trade on our terms and of essays and speeches starting in 2017. Although only when it benefits American families”, which has he has engaged on issues such as the Chinese been likened to President Trump’s approach.46 The Communist Party’s human rights record, unlike fellow plan would apply nine very strict criteria to both new Democratic candidates Sanders has largely avoided and existing trade deals, including “upholding and discussing China policy and US-China competition.52 enforcing the labor rights laid out by the International Labour Organization, eliminating all domestic fossil Sanders proposes a fundamental restructuring of fuel subsidies, fulfilling commitments from the Paris US foreign policy. He has called for a worldwide Climate Agreement, not running afoul of the State struggle against oligarchy and corporate power — Department’s Country Reports on Human Rights, and a “global progressive movement” for economic not being on the Treasury Department’s monitoring equality, democratic rights and environmental list for manipulative currency practices”.47 As Warren sustainability.53 Moreover, Sanders says he will be has conceded, the United States does not currently both “commander in chief and organizer in chief”,54 meet these criteria, and nor do many US allies.48 If Warren is elected president, there is likely to be a major overhaul of US trade policy, a grinding slowdown to existing free trade agreements, few or no new trade agreements, and increased protectionism.49
Additionally, Warren is vocal on defence issues, and endorses a significantly smaller budget and an overhaul to how the Pentagon does business. A few years ago, Warren joined the Senate Armed Services Committee, which bolsters her credentials to serve Senator Bernie as commander in chief. She has argued that “the Sanders addresses Pentagon’s budget has been too large for too long” and a rally in New York City, March 2016 proposes an audit of the Pentagon to try to separate Photo: Getty effective defence acquisitions from those “which
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who will “reconceptualize a global order based on Like President Trump, Sanders has the politically potent human solidarity”.55 This language is somewhat ability to frame issues in simple, short soundbites tempered by his belief that the United States should to criticise rivals. He has particularly lambasted Joe “lead the struggle to defend and expand a rules- Biden on foreign policy: “I helped lead the opposition based international order in which law, not might, to what turned out to be the worst foreign policy makes right”.56 Sanders explicitly rejects isolationism disaster in the modern history of America. Joe voted — yet his conception of the international order is for it [the Iraq War]” and “Joe voted for NAFTA and nonetheless very different to the Obama and Clinton permanent trade relations, trade agreements with administrations’.57 China. I led the effort against that. Joe voted for the deregulation of Wall Street, I voted against that”.61 Sanders has been outspoken in his opposition to But Sanders’ diagnosis of the issues afflicting the authoritarian regimes and has consistently championed United States do not necessarily translate into easily greater emphasis on climate change in foreign policy. deliverable foreign policy governance. He laments the “rise of a new authoritarian axis” in the world, arguing that it is interwoven with income inequality.58 His major foreign policy initiative since the last presidential election was championing a congressional resolution invoking the War Powers Act of 1973 to suspend the Trump administration’s support of Saudi Arabia’s military campaign in Yemen. The bill passed the House and Senate in the aftermath of the Saudi Arabian government’s murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but was vetoed by President Trump.59 And, among the major Democratic candidates, Sanders vows to give climate change the most prominent role in foreign policy.60
11 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Table 1: Where the candidates currently stand on foreign policy issues
CANDIDATE CHINA TRADE DEFENCE SPENDING IRAN MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY ADDRESS/ESSAY JOE BIDEN “We are in a competition with China. We need “I would not rejoin the TPP as it was initially put “Our military is one tool in our toolbox — along “Two of America’s vital interests in the Middle East Speech, 11 July 2019: “The Power of to get tough with China. They are a serious forward. I would insist that we renegotiate ... with diplomacy, economic power, education, are preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon America’s Example: The Biden Plan for challenge to us, and in some areas a real threat.” Either China’s going to write the rules of the road science and technology. We must invest in and and securing a stable energy supply through the Leading the Democratic World to Meet for the 21st century on trade or we are. We have strengthen all elements of our power. And, we Strait of Hormuz … Trump is failing on both counts.” the Challenges of the 21st Century” “The United States should push back to join with the 40 per cent of the world that we must modernize our military to prepare for the on China’s deepening authoritarianism, “If Tehran returns to compliance with the Speech, 1 November 2017: “Global had with us and this time make sure that there’s wars of tomorrow, while ensuring that we only even as we seek to cooperate on issues [JCPOA] deal, I would rejoin the agreement, Engagement in an Age of Uncertainty”66 no one sitting at that table doing the deal unless deploy American troops into harm’s way when where our interests are aligned.“62 and work with our allies to strengthen and 64 environmentalists are there and labor is there.” it is in our vital national security interest.” extend it, while more effectively pushing back “President Trump may think he’s being tough on against Iran’s destabilizing activities.”65 China. All that he’s delivered as a consequence of that is American farmers, manufacturers and consumers losing and paying more.”63 PETE “I’m not among the Democrats who think “Quick reminder: a tariff is a tax. On Americans.” “To shape this young century to our advantage, “I will rejoin our international partners and Speech, 11 June 2019: “America and the that China’s nothing to worry about ... There’s we must renew our national security architecture recommit the United States to the Iran nuclear World: National Security for a New Era”71 BUTTIGIEG “It’s also a fool’s errand to think you will be something about the orientation on China [under — our military, certainly, but also our intelligence, deal. Whatever its imperfections, this was perhaps able to get China to change the fundamentals Trump] that I think is not completely wrong.” communications, diplomatic, and development as close to a true “art of the deal” as it gets.”70 of their economic model by poking them institutions ... It begins with taking a hard look “The challenge of China presents perhaps in the eye with some tariffs.”68 at our defense. To adequately prepare for the most pressing example anywhere of our evolving security challenges, we need to the need to stand for American values look not only at how much we’re spending on amid the rise of a potent alternative.”67 our military but what we’re prioritizing.”69 KAMALA “China’s abysmal human rights record must “Because of the so-called trade policy this president “As a senator from the state with the largest “I would plan to rejoin the JCPOA so long as Iran None to date. HARRIS feature prominently in our policy toward the has, that has been nothing more than the Trump number of military personnel in the country, I also returned to verifiable compliance. At the same country … Under my administration, we will trade tax, that has resulted in American families support providing them with the necessary tools time, I would seek negotiations with Iran to extend cooperate with China on global issues like spending as much as $1.4 billion more a month on to keep our country safe in a world of growing and supplement some of the nuclear deal’s existing climate change, but we won’t allow human everything from shampoo to washing machines.”73 national security threats … They deserve to be provisions, and work with our partners to counter rights abuses to go unchecked.”72 outfitted with tools that offer protection to all of Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region, including us. They deserve research that will allow them with regard to its ballistic missile program.”75 to provide a safe and secure nation for decades into the future. It is deeply unfortunate that we cannot vote on a clean bill to reauthorize all of those programs and more, and that reflects our shared support for our Armed Forces.”74
ELIZABETH “China is on the rise, using its economic “I think that our trade deals have been “If more money for the Pentagon could solve our “Our intelligence community told us again and Essay, January 2019: “A Foreign Policy for All: WARREN might to bludgeon its way onto the world negotiated for a very, very long time now security challenges, we would have solved them again: The Iran deal was working to prevent Strengthening Democracy — at Home and Abroad” stage and offering a model in which to benefit large, multinational corporations, by now. It is time to identify which programs Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. If Iran Speech, 28 November 2018: “A Foreign economic gains legitimize oppression.”76 not to benefit the American worker.” actually benefit American security in the 21st continues to abide by the terms of the deal, Policy that Works for All Americans”80 century, and which programs merely line the you bet I will support returning to it.”79 “What I’d like to see us do is rethink all of our trade pockets of defense contractors — then pull policy. And, I have to say, when President Trump out a sharp knife and make some cuts.”78 says he’s putting tariffs on the table, I think tariffs are one part of reworking our trade policy overall.”77 BERNIE “My administration will work with allies to “Yeah of course [I would use tariffs], it is used in a “So what I would be prepared to do is to understand “By withdrawing from the Iran nuclear Essay, 24 June 2019: “Ending America’s SANDERS strengthen global human rights standards and rational way within the context of a broad, sensible that we are now spending more than the next 10 agreement, a move opposed by his own top Endless War: We Must Stop Giving make every effort to let Beijing know that its trade policy. It is one tool that is available.”82 countries combined — we are spending over $700 security officials, Trump has isolated the US Terrorists Exactly What They Want” behavior is damaging its international standing and billion a year. At the same time, you have veterans from its closest allies and put us on a dangerous Speech, 9 October 2018: “Building A Global undermining relations with the United States.” sleeping out on the streets, major crisis after path to conflict. We should rejoin the deal and Democratic Movement to Counter Authoritarianism“ major crisis in affordable housing, infrastructure. work with allies to effectively enforce it.”84 “But what we have to say about China in fairness to I think we have to get our priorities right, and our Speech, 21 September 2017: “John China and its leadership is if I’m not mistaken they 85 priorities should include not spending more than Findley Green Foundation lecture” have made more progress in addressing extreme the 10 next nations on earth. As president, I would poverty than any country in the history of civilization, certainly look at a very different military budget.”83 so they’ve done a lot of things for their people.”81
12 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
The key issues for Australia
Australia should be paying close attention to the by investing in the United States’ domestic strength, shifts in the Democratic Party’s debate on China and code for investing in infrastructure, research and the related questions of trade policy and Asia policy, development, and greater economic resilience.90 as well as the Middle East and defence spending. Economic threat and China, trade and Asia policy Trump’s tariffs The extent of China hardening in the Democratic The perceived threat to American jobs posed by the Party, and across the United States, towards a Chinese economy and Beijing’s trade practices is the less co-operative and more competitive policy is China issue that resonates most with voters, especially 86 highly significant. US voters across the political in ‘Rust Belt’ states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and spectrum overwhelmingly view China as America’s Pennsylvania that will be key battlegrounds in 2020. 87 top competitor. According to recent polling by Pew Democrats tend to support President Trump’s tougher Research Center, just 26 per cent of Americans approach to China on trade and economic policy, even have a favourable view of China, compared to 60 if they do not necessarily support the style or some per cent with an unfavourable view, the highest level of the substance of his policies. The state of the 88 since Pew began asking the question in 2005. Democratic Party, writ large, and emerging bipartisan As Thomas Wright has written, unlike every other consensus on China economic issues is best country or foreign policy issue, China and the US- summarised by Senator Chuck Schumer. Where the China relationship “directly affects the economy, the leader of the Senate Democrats constantly lambasts financial system, technological innovation, values, President Trump on a wide array of domestic and 89 and national security”. Notably, outside Washington, foreign policy issues, Schumer supports Trump’s Democrats’ tough language on China is not especially China hardening: “We have to be really tough on motivated by Asia-focused geopolitical concerns China. They’ve taken advantage of us… America has such as China’s rapid military modernisation, island- lost trillions of dollars and millions of jobs because building in the South China Sea or potential threats China has not played fair. And being tough on China is to US allies. Rather, whether a candidate cares about the right way to be.”91 These views are broadly shared labour, trade, currency manipulation, technological by the field of Democratic candidates. competition, intellectual property, human rights, Beijing’s influence operations overseas, or democracy The Democratic frontrunners have a mixed approach versus authoritarianism, Democrats see the to President Trump’s tariffs on China. They call his Communist Party as presenting an ‘embarrassment trade war reckless, but, when asked, none of the of riches’ for criticism. leading contenders said they would immediately drop the tariffs if elected president.92 Progressives The refrain that the United States should get tough on are most favourably disposed to Trump’s tariffs: China will be a mainstay of the primary and the general Sanders says he “strongly supports” tariffs against election campaign. The Democratic frontrunners China but thinks “Trump gets it wrong in terms of all adopt tough language, with subtle differences implementation”, and Warren says that “tariffs are between the relative importance of different aspects one part of reworking our trade policy”.93 However, of the China relationship. However, they vary in their more centrist candidates view Trump’s tariffs as emphasis on the right balance between competition a “fool’s errand”, a tax on American consumers, and cooperation in the relationship with Beijing, the who are paying hundreds of dollars more per year right domains of competition, and how sharply the for ordinary products like “washing machines and United States should compete. The major candidates shampoos”. 94 Buttigieg, Harris and Biden argue and all suggest that the best way to compete with China is vow to put far more emphasis on different tools in the
13 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
US President Donald Trump and Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison hold a meeting in the sidelines of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Buenos Aires, November 2018 Photo: Getty
trade relationship. There is widespread agreement Ideology and values among Democrats that President Trump’s approach to China is counterproductive because it has Democratic candidates are also adopting an alienated US allies and partners who could help build increasingly ideological and values-based tone a wider coalition to try to shape Chinese behaviour. towards the Chinese Communist Party. Earlier A Democratic administration will want Australia’s this year, Biden said that the United States finds support for its trade policy towards China. itself in “an ideological struggle… a competition of systems [and] a competition of values” with Beijing.95 A centrist Democratic administration would likely Buttigieg’s language is stronger, singling out “The enter office focused on making substantive wins Chinese Communist Party’s shocking treatment on intellectual property and technology transfer, of the Uighurs and other minorities and growing as well as potentially re-joining an amended TPP. pressure on Hong Kong” as “symptomatic of a Technology would also be a key focus for Democrats, broader, and intensifying” ideological competition in who have criticised President Trump for focusing which “Beijing seems committed to consolidating and on the industries of the past — such as steel and legitimating authoritarian capitalism as an alternative autos — without sufficiently engaging with future to the democratic capitalism embraced by the United technologies. A Democratic administration would also States and its closest allies and partners”.96 For all focus more bandwidth on building up cyber defences the Democratic candidates, criticising the Communist and making government investments in technologies Party’s behaviour in Xinjiang simultaneously serves that will be critical in the ongoing technological many beneficial political objectives. It plays to competition with China. the narrative that a candidate is tough on Beijing,
14 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
compassionate towards minorities, and carries administration would likely ask Australia and other implicit criticism of President Trump’s approach to allies to do more to complement US force posture minorities, immigration policies (especially towards and help counterbalance China’s growing power the border with Mexico), admiration for authoritarians and assertiveness in the region. China aside, the and reluctance to speak about human rights. Given candidates have spent little attention discussing how Democrats’ focus on the role of allies and partners they would approach other issues in Asia, not least vis-à-vis China, Canberra can expect Washington North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, competition to ask Australia to take a stronger unilateral stance in Southeast Asia and alliances. towards Beijing and join multilateral statements that criticise the Chinese Communist Party’s approach to Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Middle East
There are deep, emotional, intra-party divides on All criticism no strategy Middle East policy. Progressives are coalescing around a very different approach to those taken by At this early stage in the campaign, Democrats’ tough the Obama or Clinton administrations. talk on China has not translated to a coherent China policy or Asia strategy. The candidates lack an overall Iran policy is shaping as a significant foreign policy framework for whether they view China as a rival, a issue in this election. The major candidates all partner, or both.97 All candidates pay some lip service suggest re-joining the Obama-era nuclear deal to the need to cooperate with Beijing on shared with Iran, but often with different conditions. Their global priorities such as climate change, terrorism, language features variations of the theme that the nuclear proliferation and peacekeeping, but these deal is imperfect, but better than the alternatives. comments are overshadowed by their loud criticisms For example, Biden has promised to “strengthen and of the Communist Party. The emerging bipartisan extend it [the Iran nuclear deal]”.98 Harris “would also consensus on China, Democrats’ language on the look toward expanding [the deal]” and “would like campaign trail, and the increasingly authoritarian and to see it also cover ballistic missile testing”.99 Unlike uncompromising nature of Xi Jinping’s regime all her more centrist colleagues, Warren’s statement suggest the US-China relationship will continue to indicates less concern about other aspects of Iran’s move in a more competitive direction no matter who behaviour, promising that if Iran abides by the terms, wins the election. her administration would support returning to it.100 Re- negotiating the deal will be highly complex, requiring Finally, from the perspective of allies and partners, buy-in from the regime in Tehran and other parties to the absence of discussion of broader Asia policy is the deal, amidst likely opposition from Republicans, notable but not surprising at this early stage of the some powerful Democrats and Israel. Whether campaign. There is little indication so far of how tough President Trump is re-elected or defeated by a talk on China would translate into the projection of US Democrat, Washington will want to enlist Australian military power across the Pacific. Many Democrats support for an Iran policy that will feature military hold the contradictory preferences for competing pressure, sanctions, or both. with China while cutting the defence budget. Even if a candidate such as Joe Biden wants to re-invigorate Democratic candidates are also re-evaluating long- US force posture in the region, it is unlikely that standing US policy towards Israel and Saudi Arabia. he would ask Congress to significantly increase Israel has become a divisive issue within parts of defence spending in a difficult political and budgetary the party, defined by the differences between older, environment or meaningfully shift military assets powerful pro-Israel members of Congress and those out of the Middle East. Regardless, any Democratic who argue that the United States should reduce its
15 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
military and political support for Jerusalem. In the and domestic programs, including a detailed plan to presidential race, for example, Buttigieg has taken a ‘Rebuild the State Department’.107 Neither Buttigieg firm line against Israeli annexation of the West Bank,101 nor Biden calls for higher defence spending despite and Sanders has said US policy “cannot just be pro- the deteriorating global security outlook, but instead Israel, pro-Israel, pro-Israel”.102 Similarly, following make the case to modernise the US military to the Saudi Arabian government’s murder of journalist deal with future threats. However, top-line defence Jamal Khashoggi, Sanders and Warren called for the spending is determined by Congress, following a United States to “thoroughly re-evaluate” the United request from the president, and defence has a strong 103 States’ relationship with the Saudis. Biden and political constituency across the United States that Buttigieg have been critical of the Saudis’ behaviour makes major cuts or reallocations of funds politically but have not gone as far in proposing changes to the challenging. long-standing alliance. Regardless, if a Democrat wins, they will invariably continue President Obama and President Trump’s Defence spending calls for allies to do more burden-sharing because of the United States’s political and budgetary constraints. The Democratic frontrunners exhibit significant Australia and other US allies and partners in Asia will differences in their approach to defence spending, an face calls to increase defence expenditure and do increasingly important issue given the eroding balance more to complement US forward deployed forces. of power in the Indo-Pacific. The size and relative allocation within the US defence budget has major implications for Australian interests. As argued in a Other issues recent United States Studies Centre report, ‘Averting Crisis’, “America no longer enjoys military primacy in Finally, US policy towards Europe and Russia, the Indo-Pacific and its capacity to uphold a favourable immigration and climate change are set to feature in 104 balance of power is increasingly uncertain”. Even a predictable way in the Democratic foreign policy sustained increases to defence spending — which debate. Democrats are making a lot of noise about are unlikely in a highly polarised Congress — would the Trump administration’s links with Russia, the not preserve the current balance of power with oligarchic nature of Vladimir Putin’s regime, and China amidst a range of budgetary pressures such threat of Russian interference in the 2020 election. as spiralling operations and maintenance costs and Moreover, given Russia’s role in the 2016 election and a military modernisation backlog. Put another way, a President Trump’s vacillations on NATO, Democrats major cut in the defence budget would crowd out the are adopting a tougher position towards Russia, space available for investments required to compete including calls for more extensive sanctions, and with China. greater support for European allies. All candidates Many of the Democratic frontrunners propose a re- can be expected to support NATO, while repeating evaluation of the Pentagon’s budget. Sanders and the regular bipartisan refrain that European NATO Warren favour cuts to the US defence budget and allies need to spend more on defence. Climate hew towards proposing military sufficiency rather change will receive plenty of attention, particularly than superiority.105 Sanders lambasts the US$700 from progressives such as Sanders. Moreover, young billion defence budget “when our infrastructure is people and the Democratic base show widespread collapsing and kids can’t afford to go to college”,106 support for the federal government doing more on and Warren has argued “the Pentagon’s budget has climate change, and the Pentagon is also focused on been too large for too long”, proposed to invest money the risks climate change poses to low-lying military saved for other forms of international engagement bases and global security.
16 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Foreign policy in the general election
Absent a new war or international crisis, foreign policy Conclusion is unlikely to be a key issue in the 2020 election. However, it will play a role, and President Trump At this stage, Australian political leaders and officials will see it as an electoral strength: he will argue that need to understand these trends, consider their he has been successful where Obama was not. implications, and meet the candidates and key This narrative might be surprising to foreign policy advisers who would staff a Democratic administration. professionals in Canberra, but it enjoys support from a The China hardening in the Democratic Party is now majority of the American electorate. National Security and will likely continue to embolden President Trump Action released a survey late last month that found in his approach to Beijing up to the 2020 election and voters had a net positive view of Trump on national perhaps beyond. Moreover, the contours of China security: 55 per cent approval compared to 45 per policy in a potential Democratic administration are cent disapproval, far higher than President Trump’s becoming clear. Regardless of who wins the election, historically low overall approval rating.108 Canberra will need to prepare to be called on by the United States for a tougher approach to China. On During his campaign to ‘Keep America Great’, defence spending, Democrats’ positions presage a President Trump will argue that he has reasserted plateau or cut to top-line spending. If nothing else, America’s military strength, forced allies to spend Australia must build sufficiently deep connections more on defence, that North Korea is no longer a to the Democratic campaigns so that, if a Democrat threat, Iran is under pressure, he has been the most wins, the Australian prime minister will not be relying pro-Israel president in recent memory, withdrawn on golfer Greg Norman to tee up a congratulatory from Afghanistan and “100 percent” defeated phone call with the president-elect. ISIS.109 Trade will also play a prominent role in his pitch for another four years: he will ask voters to give him more time to reach major trade deals with China and renegotiate other agreements to benefit American workers. Moreover, with a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives until the 2020 election, President Trump is unlikely to achieve domestic successes before the election, so many of his most notable actions in the two years leading up to November 2020 will likely be in foreign policy.
17 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Endnotes
1. Van Jackson, ‘Wagering on a Progressive ‘Biden changes tone on China: “They are a serious Versus Liberal Theory of National Security’, challenge to us”’, Axios, 11 June 2019, accessed via Texas National Security Review, vol. 2, no. 1, https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-china-competition- 14 January 2019, accessed via: https://tnsr. c58cff27-0386-4602-a380-c398e0f86a7e.html. org/roundtable/wagering-on-a-progressive- 9. For example, Biden ““The world sees [President versus-liberal-theory-of-national-security/ Donald] Trump for what he is: insincere, ill- 2. Thomas Wright, ‘Buttigieg Splits From the informed, and impulsive. Sometimes corrupt” Progressives on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, 12 and Harris: “we have foreign powers infecting the June 2019, accessed via: https://www.theatlantic. White House like malware,” Sources: Jen Kirby, com/ideas/archive/2019/06/what-buttigieg- ‘Joe Biden wants to restore the pre-Trump world left-out-his-foreign-policy-speech/591502/ order’, Vox, 11 July 2019, accessed via: https:// 3. Eighty-four percent of Democrats and Democratic- www.vox.com/world/2019/7/11/20690243/joe- leaning independents have not made up their biden-foreign-policy-speech-new-york-trump and mind about which candidate to support in 2020, James Lindsay, ‘Election 2020: Kamala Harris, according to a poll by PBS NewsHour-NPR-Marist. Democratic Presidential Candidate’, Council on Gretchen Frazee, ‘Do Democrats want a candidate Foreign Relations, 11 February 2019, accessed who shares their values or can beat Trump? via: https://www.cfr.org/blog/campaign-2020- Voters are split’, PBS, 7 June 2019, accessed kamala-harris-democratic-presidential-candidate via: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ 10. For example, Barack Obama’s anti-Iraq do-democrats-want-a-candidate-who-shares- War credentials were helpful in the 2008 their-values-or-can-beat-trump-voters-are-split Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton 4. Congressional Republicans have split with President and general election against John McCain. Trump and joined bipartisan congressional initiatives 11. Josh Rogin, ‘2020 Democrats must run on foreign on issues such as sanctions on Russia, weapons policy, not away from it’, Washington Post, 23 May sales to Saudi Arabia and support for NATO. 2019, accessed via: https://www.washingtonpost. 5. For example, in one of the two Democratic Party com/opinions/global-opinions/2020-democrats-must- debates in July, just five minutes in the two- run-on-foreign-policy-not-away-from-it/2019/05/23/ and-a-half-hour debate were devoted to foreign e08775cc-7d88-11e9-a5b3-34f3edf1351e_story.html policy. Fred Kaplan, ‘Five Minutes to Explain 12. Though Congress passed a major tax cut and the World’, Slate, 1 August 2019, accessed via: President Trump has appointed two conservative https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/08/ justices to the Supreme Court, he has thus far democratic-debates-foreign-policy.html failed to implement key election promises such 6. The survey was conducted with public opinion as the repeal of Obamacare and constructing the research firm GBAO. John Halpin, Brian Katulis, border wall with Mexico. See Kathryn Watson, Peter Juul, Karl Agne, Jim Gerstein, and Nisha ‘How Trump is doing on his campaign promises Jain, ‘America Adrift: How the US Foreign Policy as he launches his reelection bid’, CBS News, 18 Debate Misses What Voters Really Want’, Center June 2019, accessed via: https://www.cbsnews. for American Progress, 5 May 2019, accessed via: com/news/how-trump-is-doing-on-his-campaign- https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/ promises-as-he-launches-his-reelection-bid/ reports/2019/05/05/469218/america-adrift/ 13. Wording taken from the landing page of the 7. John Halpin, Brian Katulis, Peter Juul, Karl Agne, National Security Action website, accessed Jim Gerstein, and Nisha Jain, ‘America Adrift: via: https://nationalsecurityaction.org/ How the US Foreign Policy Debate Misses 14. “We’re a temporary organization. Our hope is to be What Voters Really Want’, Center for American out of business in three years,” Rhodes said in an Progress, 5 May 2019, accessed via: https:// interview. From Anne Gearan, ‘Democrats marshal www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/ strike force to counter Trump on national security in reports/2019/05/05/469218/america-adrift/ 2018, 2020 elections’, Washington Post, 27 February 8. For example, Joe Biden: “IF we stand up for 2018, accessed via: https://www.washingtonpost. American interests, IF we invest in our people, com/politics/democrats-marshal-a-strike-force-to- live our values, and work with our partners — We counter-trump-on-national-security-in-2018-2020- can out-compete anyone.” From Ursula Perano, elections/2018/02/26/6b08540a-1b5b-11e8-b2d9-
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08e748f892c0_story.html?utm_term=.b9b7529facdb the University of Sydney, 23 March 2018, accessed 15. Polls: Fivethirtyeight, ‘National 2020 Democratic via: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/australia- Presidential Primary Polls’, accessed via: https:// and-the-2018-us-midterm-elections-a-primer projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/ 21. Greg Jaffe and Cleve R. Wootson Jr. ‘Biden attacks democratic/national/, and polling and fundraising from Trump’s foreign policy as an embarrassment’, Jasmine C. Lee, Annie Daniel, Rebecca Lieberman, Washington Post, 11 July 2019, accessed via: Blacki Migliozzi and Alexander Burns, ‘Which https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race?’, biden-attacks-trump-doctrine-on-foreign-policy- New York Times, Updated 30 August 2019, accessed as-an-embarrassment/2019/07/11/985febb4- via: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/ a347-11e9-bd56-eac6bb02d01d_story. us/elections/democratic-polls.html?module=inline; html?utm_term=.fb643c92cf2f More information on fundraising: For the most 22. Biden: “On our own, we represent about one- recent quarter for which data is available (up to 30 quarter of global GDP. When we join together with June 2019), the top 5 candidates all raised between fellow democracies, that number doubles.” From Kamala Harris’ $11.8 million and Bernie Sanders Axios, ‘Top 2020 Democrats on U.S. policy toward $25.7 million. The sixth performance was by China’, 28 July 2019, accessed via: https://graphics. wealth former Congressman John Delaney ($8.0 axios.com/2019-07-28-dem-china-responses/ million) and all other candidates had a haul of less index.html?subset=china&directLink=true#_ than $4.5 million. See Beatrice Jin and Maggie ga=2.105090051.1083380823.1564682567- Severns, ‘The Money’, Politico, Updated 15 July 1066467934.1560529251 2019, accessed via: https://www.politico.com/2020- 23. Sydney Ember and Katie Glueck, ‘Biden, in Foreign election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/ Policy Speech, Castigates Trump and Urges Global fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/ Diplomacy’, New York Times, 11 June 2019, 16. He was on SFRC for decades, and had three accessed via: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/ separate stints as chairman, totalling over 4 years. us/politics/joe-biden-foreign-policy.html From Alex Ward, ‘Why Joe Biden’s foreign policy 24. Griff Witte and Michael Birnbaum, ‘Democrats offer experience is both a weakness and a strength in European allies the promise of a post-Trump future. 2020’, Vox, 26 April 2019, accessed via: https://www. But can they deliver?’, Washington Post, 17 February vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/26/18515680/ 2019, accessed via: https://www.washingtonpost. joe-biden-2020-foreign-policy-record-iraq com/world/europe/democrats-offer-european- 17. See Joe Biden, ‘The Trump Doctrine’, 11 allies-the-promise-of-a-post-trump-future-but-can- July 2019, accessed via: https://www. they-deliver/2019/02/17/35717ce2-2fad-11e9-8781- youtube.com/watch?v=gbc9Kp3lIG8 763619f12cb4_story.html?utm_term=.a9e87d0af779 18. Jen Kirby, ‘Joe Biden wants to restore the pre- 25. See Joe Biden, ‘Remarks by Vice President Trump world order’, Vox, 11 July 2019, accessed via: Joe Biden on the Future of the U.S.-Australian https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/11/20690243/ Relationship in Asia’, The White House of President joe-biden-foreign-policy-speech-new-york-trump Barack Obama, 20 July 2016, accessed via: 19. Adam Behsudi and Doug Palmer, ‘Biden says https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press- he would renegotiate TPP’, Politico, 1 August office/2016/07/20/remarks-vice-president-joe- 2019, accessed via: https://www.politico.com/ biden-future-us-australian-relationship-asia newsletters/morning-trade/2019/08/01/biden- 26. The staff at the Center include former Deputy says-he-would-renegotiate-tpp-464000 Secretary of State and senior advisor to the Biden 20. For example, the successful vote in the House campaign Anthony Blinken. Nahal Toosi, ‘Democrats for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in June 2015 challenging Trump scramble to hire foreign policy — which in effect served as a proxy vote for the aides’, Politico, 3 May 2019, accessed via: https:// TPP — passed by the narrow margin of 218-208. www.politico.com/story/2019/05/03/2020- Only 28 of 186 House Democrats voted in favour foreign-policy-advisers-1301083 of TPA, despite the fact that it was championed by 27. Josh Rogin, ‘Joe Biden tries to adapt his traditional then-President Obama. See Dougal Robinson and foreign policy to a new era’, Washington Post, Matilda Steward, ‘Australia and the 2018 US Midterm 11 July 2019, accessed via: https://www. Elections: A Primer’, United States Studies Centre at washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/07/11/
19 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
joe-biden-tries-adapt-his-traditional-foreign- accessed via: https://supchina.com/2020- policy-new-era/?utm_term=.38a4c02dcd19 president-election-china-tracker/ 28. Buttigieg spent seven months as a Navy 38. Claire Landsbaum, ‘California’s First New Senator intelligence officer in Kabul in 2014. Among other in 24 Years Will Be a Woman, But Which One?’, candidates, Tulsi Gabbard is also a veteran, and 1 November 2016, accessed via: https://www. Cory Booker also held a Rhodes Scholarship. thecut.com/2016/11/where-loretta-sanchez- 29. Pete Buttigieg, ‘National Security For a New Era’, and-kamala-harris-stand-on-the-issues.html 11 June 2019, accessed via: https://peteforamerica. 39. James M. Lindsay, ‘Election 2020: Kamala com/national-security-for-a-new-era/#transcript Harris, Democratic Presidential Candidate’, 30. George Packer, ‘Buttigieg Looks to Truman, CFR, 11 February 2019, accessed via: https:// Not Obama, on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, www.cfr.org/blog/campaign-2020-kamala- 11 June 2019, accessed via: https://www. harris-democratic-presidential-candidate theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/ 40. Daniel W. Drezner, ‘Elizabeth Warren’s trade plan buttigieg-foreign-policy-speech/591436/ is bad politics and worse policy’, Washington 31. George Packer, ‘Buttigieg Looks to Truman, Post, 30 July 2019, accessed via: https://www. Not Obama, on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/30/ 11 June 2019, accessed via: https://www. elizabeth-warrens-trade-plan-is-bad-politics- theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/ worse-policy/?utm_term=.7ce78722fac7 buttigieg-foreign-policy-speech/591436/ 41. Elizabeth Warren, ‘A Foreign Policy for All, 32. George Packer, ‘Buttigieg Looks to Truman, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019, Not Obama, on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, accessed via: https://www.foreignaffairs. 11 June 2019, accessed via: https://www. com/articles/2018-11-29/foreign-policy-all theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/ 42. Team Warren, ‘A Plan For Economic buttigieg-foreign-policy-speech/591436/ Patriotism’, 4 June 2019, accessed via: 33. Eleanor Albert, ‘What Do the US Democratic https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-plan- Presidential Contenders Think About China?’, for-economic-patriotism-13b879f4cfc7 The Diplomat, 6 July 2019, accessed 43. Thomas Wright, ‘Buttigieg Splits From the via: https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/ Progressives on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, 12 what-do-the-us-democratic-presidential- June 2019, accessed via: https://www.theatlantic. contenders-think-about-china/ com/ideas/archive/2019/06/what-buttigieg- 34. George Packer, ‘Buttigieg Looks to Truman, left-out-his-foreign-policy-speech/591502/ Not Obama, on Foreign Policy’, The Atlantic, 44. Elizabeth Warren, ‘A Foreign Policy for All’, 11 June 2019, accessed via: https://www. Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019, theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/ accessed via: https://www.foreignaffairs. buttigieg-foreign-policy-speech/591436/ com/articles/2018-11-29/foreign-policy-all 35. Jeff Zeleny, ‘Buttigieg wields his military 45. Brianna Stewart and Sasha Pezenik, ‘2020 credentials: ‘It’s not like I killed Bin Laden,’ but it Democrats split in growing divide on US trade policy’, was dangerous’, CNN, 17 May 2019, accessed ABC News, 25 May 2019, accessed via: https:// via: https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/17/politics/ abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-democrats-split- buttigieg-military-service-2020/index.html and growing-divide-us-trade-policy/story?id=63217252 CFR, ‘Candidates Answer CFR’s Questions: 46. Elizabeth Warren, Tweet, 29 July 2019, Pete Buttigieg’, 30 June 2019, accessed via: accessed via: https://twitter.com/ewarren/ https://www.cfr.org/article/pete-buttigieg status/1155870615800352770?s=20 and 36. Alex Fang, ‘Democratic US presidential front- “Elizabeth Warren released a trade plan Monday runners split on China tariffs’, Nikkei Asian that’s closer to Donald Trump’s agenda than Review, 3 March 2019, accessed via: https:// Barack Obama’s”, from Alex Thompson and asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Democratic-US- Adam Behsudi, ‘Warren moves to outflank Trump presidential-front-runners-split-on-China-tariffs on trade’, Politico, 29 July 2019, accessed via: 37. SupChina, ‘2020 U.S. presidential election https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/29/ China tracker’, updated 4 September 2019, elizabeth-warren-trump-trade-2020-1439186
20 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
47. Alex Thompson and Adam Behsudi, ‘Warren 54. Bernie Sanders, Tweet, 1 August 2019, moves to outflank Trump on trade’, Politico, accessed via: https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/ 29 July 2019, accessed via: https://www. status/1156920512179818502?s=20 politico.com/story/2019/07/29/elizabeth- 55. Benjamin Wallace-Wells, ‘Bernie Sanders warren-trump-trade-2020-1439186 Imagines a Progressive New Approach to 48. Daniel W. Drezner, ‘Elizabeth Warren’s trade plan Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, 13 April 2019, is bad politics and worse policy’, Washington accessed via: https://www.newyorker.com/news/ Post, 30 July 2019, accessed via: https://www. the-political-scene/bernie-sanders-imagines-a- washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/30/ progressive-new-approach-to-foreign-policy elizabeth-warrens-trade-plan-is-bad-politics- 56. Benjamin Wallace-Wells, ‘Bernie Sanders worse-policy/?utm_term=.7ce78722fac7 Imagines a Progressive New Approach to 49. According to Council on Foreign Relations Senior Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, 13 April 2019, Fellow Edward Alden, Warren’s trade plan is an accessed via: https://www.newyorker.com/news/ “unwieldy mess that will leave the U.S. with few, if the-political-scene/bernie-sanders-imagines-a- any, new trading partners, and do little to persuade progressive-new-approach-to-foreign-policy Americans sceptical on trade that the Democrats 57. Benjamin Wallace-Wells, ‘Bernie Sanders are doing anything to look after their interests.” See Imagines a Progressive New Approach to Edward Alden, ‘Elizabeth Warren’s “New Approach Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, 13 April 2019, to Trade” Looks Awfully Dated’, CFR, 30 July 2019, accessed via: https://www.newyorker.com/news/ accessed via: https://www.cfr.org/blog/elizabeth- the-political-scene/bernie-sanders-imagines-a- warrens-new-approach-trade-looks-awfully-dated progressive-new-approach-to-foreign-policy 50. Elizabeth Warren, ‘A Foreign Policy for All, 58. Benjamin Wallace-Wells, ‘Bernie Sanders Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019, Imagines a Progressive New Approach to accessed via: https://www.foreignaffairs. Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, 13 April 2019, com/articles/2018-11-29/foreign-policy-all accessed via: https://www.newyorker.com/news/ 51. In January 2019, Warren introduced the No First the-political-scene/bernie-sanders-imagines-a- Use Act, which seeks to establish in law that it is progressive-new-approach-to-foreign-policy the policy of the United States not to use nuclear 59. Patrick Goodenough, ‘Update: After Sanders weapons first. See Elizabeth Warren, ‘Senator Urges Trump to Sign Resolution on Yemen Warren, Chairman Smith Unveil Legislation to War, He Vetoes It’, CNS News, 16 April 2019 Establish “No-First-Use” Nuclear Weapons Policy’, https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ 30 January 2019, accessed via: https://www. patrick-goodenough/sen-sanders-urges-trump- warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/ sign-resolution-ending-support-saudi-war senator-warren-chairman-smith-unveil-legislation- to-establish-no-first-use-nuclear-weapons-policy 60. “I look at climate change as a very, very serious threat—to the entire planet, to every country on 52. As Peter Beinart has pointed out, in his two earth.” From Benjamin Wallace-Wells, ‘Bernie major foreign policy speeches since the 2016 Sanders Imagines a Progressive New Approach election, Sanders “mentioned China only three times: twice as a potential partner in fighting to Foreign Policy, The New Yorker, 13 April 2019, climate change and once as a potential partner accessed via: https://www.newyorker.com/news/ in denuclearizing North Korea.” Peter Beinart, the-political-scene/bernie-sanders-imagines-a- ‘Elizabeth Warren Illuminates the Left’s Foreign- progressive-new-approach-to-foreign-policy Policy Divide’, The Atlantic, 29 November 2018, 61. Brianna Stewart and Sasha Pezenik, ‘2020 accessed via: https://www.theatlantic.com/ Democrats split in growing divide on US trade policy’, ideas/archive/2018/11/what-elizabeth-warrens- ABC News, 25 May 2019, accessed via: https:// foreign-policy-speech-means/576928/ abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-democrats-split- 53. Peter Beinart, ‘Elizabeth Warren Illuminates the Left’s growing-divide-us-trade-policy/story?id=63217252 Foreign-Policy Divide’, The Atlantic, 29 November 62. Joe Biden quoted in: Rebecca Klar, “Biden now 2018, accessed via: https://www.theatlantic. labeling China a ‘serious challenge’ to US,” The com/ideas/archive/2018/11/what-elizabeth- Hill, 11 August 2019. Accessed online: https:// warrens-foreign-policy-speech-means/576928/ thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447954-biden-
21 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
now-labeling-china-a-serious-challenge-to-us; com/national-security-for-a-new-era/ Council on Foreign Relations, “The Democratic 70. Pete Buttigieg, “America and the World: National Candidates on China and Human Rights,” 30 July Security for a New Era,” campaign website, 11 2019. Accessed online: https://www.cfr.org/article/ June 2019. Accessed online: https://peteforamerica. democratic-candidates-china-and-human-rights com/national-security-for-a-new-era/ 63. Joe Biden quoted in: Adam Behsudi and Doug 71. Pete Buttigieg, “America and the World: National Palmer, “Biden says he would renegotiate Security for a New Era,” campaign website, 11 TPP,” Politico, 1 August 2019. Accessed June 2019. Accessed online: https://peteforamerica. online: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/ com/national-security-for-a-new-era/ morning-trade/2019/08/01/biden-says-he-would- 72. Kamala Harris quoted in: Council on Foreign renegotiate-tpp-464000; Joe Biden, “American Relations, “The Democratic Candidates on Leadership.” Speech delivered at City University, China and Human Rights,” 30 July 2019. New York, 11 July 2019. Accessed Online: Accessed online: https://www.cfr.org/article/ https://joebiden.com/AmericanLeadership/ democratic-candidates-china-and-human-rights 64. Joe Biden, “Joe’s vision for America,” 73. Kamala Harris quoted in: Rebecca Ballhaus, campaign website. Accessed Online: “Kamala Harris Hits ‘Trump Trade Tax” on https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/ American Families,” The Wall Street Journal, 65. Joe Biden, Twitter, 21 June 2019. Accessed 31 July 2019. Accessed online: https://www. Online: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/ wsj.com/livecoverage/democratic-debates- status/1141722705038905348?s=20; Joe Biden round-two-night-two/card/1564625137 “American Leadership.” Speech delivered at City 74. Kamala Harris, “Harris Statement on Vote Against University, New York, 11 July 2019. Accessed NDAA,” Kamala D. Harris U.S. Senator for California Online: https://joebiden.com/AmericanLeadership/ (website), 18 June 2018. Accessed online: https:// 66. Joe Biden “American Leadership.” Speech www.harris.senate.gov/news/press-releases/ delivered at City University, New York, 11 July harris-statement-on-vote-against-ndaa 2019. Accessed Online: https://joebiden.com/ 75. Kamala Harris quoted in: Council on Foreign AmericanLeadership/; The Chicago Council on Relations, “Candidates Answer CFR’s Questions: Global Affairs, “Joe Biden: Global Engagement in an Kamala Harris,” 21 August 2019. Accessed online: Age of Uncertainty,” 1 November 2017. Accessed https://www.cfr.org/article/kamala-harris online: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/file/ joe-biden-global-engagement-age-uncertainty 76. Elizabeth Warren, “A Foreign Policy for All: Strengthening Democracy- at Home and 67. Pete Buttigieg quoted in: George Packer, “Buttigieg Abroad,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019. Looks to Truman, Not Obama, on Foreign Policy,” Accessed online: https://www.foreignaffairs. The Atlantic, 11 June 2019. Accessed online: https:// com/articles/2018-11-29/foreign-policy-all www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/ buttigieg-foreign-policy-speech/591436/; Pete 77. Elizabeth Warren quoted in: Pete Schroeder, “Tariffs Buttigieg, “America and the World: National should be part of U.S. trade policy, Trump foe Security for a New Era,” campaign website, 11 Warren says,” Reuters, 12 March 2018. Accessed June 2019. Accessed online: https://peteforamerica. online: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- com/national-security-for-a-new-era/ trade-warren/tariffs-should-be-part-of-u-s-trade- policy-trump-foe-warren-says-idUSKCN1GN0LB 68. Pete Buttigieg, Twitter, 14 May 2019. Accessed online: https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/ 78. Elizabeth Warren, “It’s Time to Reduce Corporate status/1128118908899287041?s=20 ; Pete Influence at the Pentagon,”Medium , 16 May Buttigieg quoted in: Devan Cole, “Buttigieg: Trump 2019. Accessed online: https://medium.com/@ administration’s China tariffs ‘a fool’s errand,’” teamwarren/its-time-to-reduce-corporate- CNN, 18 August 2019. Accessed online: https:// influence-at-the-pentagon-98f52ee0fcf1 edition.cnn.com/2019/08/18/politics/pete-buttigieg- 79. Elizabeth Warren, Twitter, 24 February donald-trump-china-trade-war-cnntv/index.html 2019, accessed online: https://twitter.com/ 69. Pete Buttigieg, “America and the World: National ewarren/status/1099432996099231751 Security for a New Era,” campaign website, 11 80. Elizabeth Warren, “A Foreign Policy for All,” Foreign June 2019. Accessed online: https://peteforamerica. Affairs, January/February 2019. Accessed online:
22 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
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23 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
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24 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
About the author
Dougal Robinson Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre
Dougal Robinson is a Non-Resident Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, based in Washington DC. He is concurrently a Fulbright Scholar in Strategic Studies and International Economics at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
As a Research Fellow at the Centre in 2017-18, Dougal wrote several research publications on US foreign and defence policy, the US-Australia relationship and US Congress. His writing has been printed in publications including Security Challenges, The American Interest, Australian Financial Review, The Australian and Sydney Morning Herald. A regular commentator on Australian television and radio, his analysis has been quoted by international outlets including the Financial Times and New York Times.
Dougal has previously served in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, where he worked on Australia’s relationship with both the United States and China. He holds a BA with First Class Honours from the University of Sydney.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank many people who generously lent their time and insights to this report. A major debt is owed to over a dozen individuals in Washington DC who spoke to the author anonymously. These individuals, from the Democratic and Republican parties, think tanks, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Australian Embassy all volunteered candid and valuable judgements. Bruce Wolpe and two anonymous peer reviewers provided helpful feedback that sharpened the report. Thank you to Jared Mondschein for his perceptive edits, management of a flawless review process and above all being a pleasure to work with. Elliott Brennan provided excellent input, and Susan Beale and Drew Sheldrick are always instrumental in turning reports into publications. Finally, the author is very grateful to Lindsey Ford — who has now moved to the Brookings Institution — for hosting him at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington from June to August.
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