Biden's Strengths and Weaknesses Ahead of 2024

POLL REPORT: BIDEN’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES AHEAD OF 2024

President Joe Biden lost the 2020 Iowa caucuses by a long shot, but a lot has changed since then. Does he now have the support of Iowa Democrats? If not, who do they support? Read on for more details.

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Poll conducted April 8, 2021 via IVR among more than 600 Democrats in Iowa. MoE ±4.2%.

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(A) Executive Summary

Just three months into Biden’s presidency, speculation had already begun regarding the race for the 2024 Democratic nomination. Following Biden’s statement in March of 2021 that his “plan is to run for reelection,”, Victory Insights conducted a poll assessing his viability in Iowa, the state which typically holds the first election contest in the Presidential nomination process.

First things first, Biden maintains strong support among Iowa Democrats. Though he’s experienced his fair share of setbacks in his first 100 days, Biden’s support has multiplied since the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. Here are some key takeaways from the poll:

 Joe Biden remains the clear leader of the Democratic Party, at least in Iowa. 63% of Democratic voters want Biden to be the Democrats’ nominee in 2024, compared to just 11% who would prefer someone else.

 In Iowa, progressives are more supportive of Biden than moderates are. Section D of the report highlights an interesting trend. As the spectrum moves from more progressive to more moderate, support for Biden decreases while the proportion of undecided voters increases.

 Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead over Pete Buttigieg and other major players. Winning the most votes from both moderates and progressives, Harris has set herself up for success if she decides to run for the nomination.

 Bernie Sanders’ support has drastically declined since the 2020 caucuses. Though Sanders won the popular vote in the 2020 Iowa Caucuses, he is not expected to make another presidential run. After all, if he won in 2024, he would be 83 years old upon taking office. Much of his progressive base has likely shifted to Kamala Harris.

 Michelle Obama would be a viable candidate, despite Barack Obama’s guarantee that the former First Lady would never run for President. Nevertheless, her name has often been thrown around as a future Democratic contender, and she placed third in our poll, with 12% of the vote.

 Iowa Democrats are not concerned about Biden’s mental state, but other voters are. Fewer than 12% of Democrats believe that Biden suffers from any degree of cognitive decline, as opposed to the 45% of nonpartisan voters and 74% of Republican voters who believe so.

Read on for charts, insights, and more detailed results. Note: With the exception of Section I, all results are among self-identified Democrats.

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(B) How Would You Define Your Political Ideology? Unsure Very Moderate 5% 5%

Very Progressive 31%

Somewhat Moderate 23%

Somewhat Progressive 36% (C) Who Would You Prefer as the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

Undecided 26%

Someone Else Biden 11% 63%

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(D) 2024 Preference by Political Ideology Paradoxically, a higher proportion of progressives than moderates want Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. One possible explanation for this is that some of Biden’s more progressive policies and decisions have alienated moderate Iowa Democrats, such that a significantly higher proportion of moderates (32.3% vs. 20.9%) are “undecided” about whether they want him to run in 2024.

80% 73% 70% 67% 63% 60% 56%

50% 43% 39% 40% 31% 30% 30% 26%

18% 20% 15% 11% 13% 10% 8% 8%

0% Very Progressive Somewhat Progressive Somewhat Moderate Very Moderate Unsure

Biden Someone Else Undecided

(E) If Biden Doesn’t Run in 2024, Who Would You Support for the Democratic Nomination?

30% 28%

25%

20% 15% 16% 15% 12%

10% 9% 7% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2%

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(F) Non-Biden 2024 Preference by Political Ideology This chart gives insights into whom moderates and progressives would support if Biden doesn’t run for the nomination in 2024. While Vice President Kamala Harris dominates the progressive lane, Buttigieg (who narrowly won the 2020 Iowa Caucuses) is a close second in the moderate lane.

31%

30%

25% 24%

20% 20%

17%

15% 15% 15% 14%

13%

10% 9%

8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

3% 2% 2%

1% 0% 0%

Moderate Progressive

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(G) Non-Biden 2024 Preference by Biden Running Preference More than a third of those who want Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee would shift their support to Kamala Harris if Biden doesn’t run. However, among those who want someone besides Biden to be the nominee, votes are much more evenly split, with 6 of the 8 listed candidates garnering between 5% and 16% of the vote.

35% 34%

30%

26%

25%

20% 19%

17% 16%

15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11%

10% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%

2% 2%

1% 1% 0% 0%

Wants Biden as Nominee Wants Someone Else as Nominee Undecided

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(H) Democrats’ Belief in Biden’s Cognitive Decline The vast majority of Democrats either disbelieve that Biden faces any cognitive decline or have no opinion on the matter. Strongly Believe 8% Neutral/No Opinion Somewhat Believe 22% 4% Somewhat Disbelieve 13%

Strongly Disbelieve 53% (I) Republicans’ and Others’ Beliefs in Biden’s Cognitive Decline However, Republicans and nonpartisan voters believe Biden is experiencing some degree of cognitive decline. Nearly 3 in 4 Republicans believe so, and nearly 1 in 2 other/nonpartisans believe so as well.

70% 62% 60%

50%

40%

29% 30% 22% 19% 20% 16% 14% 12% 9% 10% 8% 8%

0% Strongly Believe Somewhat Believe Somewhat Disbelieve Strongly Disbelieve Neutral/No Opinion

Nonpartisan/Other Republican

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