Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll
West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll ______
Released: Contact: Wednesday, November 6, 2019 PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) [email protected] Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick
NATIONAL: TRUMP 2020 REELECT STABLE
Warren and Sanders catch up to Biden on ‘electability’
West Long Branch, NJ – President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects have not taken a hit since the House formally moved ahead with impeachment proceedings. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders lead national Democratic voter preference to take on Trump, with the latter two rising in perceived electability since the summer. The poll also finds that the vast majority of Democrats are satisfied with the field of candidates currently running for the 2020 nomination. Just over 4-in-10 (42%) registered voters feel that Trump should be reelected in 2020, while a majority (55%) say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. These results are statistically similar to Monmouth’s September poll taken just after news broke about the Ukraine call (39% reelect and 57% someone new) and from August when the House impeachment inquiry was just getting started (39% reelect and 57% someone new). While the current results are statistically similar to prior polls, this marks the first time support for Trump’s reelection has nominally risen above 40% since Monmouth started asking this question one year ago. Prior to the current poll, support for Trump’s reelection stayed in a narrow range of 37% to 39% while the preference for someone new varied from 57% to 60%. “It’s important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic. Voter opinion remains baked in,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Trump currently has a 44% favorable and 54% unfavorable personal rating among registered voters. This is largely unchanged from his 43%-56% rating in late September. The leading Democratic contenders who want to take on the president in 2020 all had a net advantage over Trump in voter favorability last month, but this has now diminished. Biden has a rating of 43% favorable and 50%
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unfavorable, which is more negative than his 46%-45% rating in late September. Voters have also grown more negative about Sanders, giving him a 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, down from 42%- 49%. Warren’s current rating of 42% favorable and 44% unfavorable is similar to her 42%-40% rating in late September. California Sen. Kamala Harris gets a 27% favorable and 46% unfavorable rating (was 33%-42% in September) and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets a 27% favorable and 34% unfavorable rating (was 30%-31% in September). Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are divided over who they want to stand against Trump in 2020. The top contenders remain Biden (23%), Warren (23%), and Sanders (20%). In late September, these three stood at 25%, 28%, and 15%, respectively. Buttigieg garners 9% (up from 5%) and Harris gets 5% (same as 5% in late September). New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and entrepreneur Andrew Yang each get 3% and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar gets 2%. The remaining eight candidates included in the poll earn 1% or less. “It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August. But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place. This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet,” said Murray. While preferences may not be locked in, few Democratic voters (16%) say they would like to see another candidate in the running for their party’s nomination. The vast majority (74%) say they are satisfied with the current field. However, non-liberals (22%) are more likely than liberals (11%) to express a desire for having other candidates from which to choose. The poll tested the perceived “electability” of eight candidates among Democratic voters. While Biden remains the candidate seen as having the best chance of beating Trump next year, both Warren and Sanders have narrowed the gap. When asked to rate Biden on a scale from 0 (would definitely lose to Trump) to 10 (would definitely defeat Trump), 51% of Democratic voters give him an 8, 9 or 10 and just 11% score him less than 5. His average score is 7.3. In June, 59% gave Biden a high score and 9% gave him a low score, for an average of 7.7. Warren averages 7.1, which is up from a 6.4 score in June. This includes 49% who give her an electability rating of 8 to 10 (up from 32%) and 11% below 5 (down from 16%). Sanders averages 7.0, which is up from a 6.5 score in June. This includes 48% who give him an electability rating of 8 to 10 (up from 39%) and 10% below 5 (down from 17%). Electability ratings for other candidates have dropped slightly. This includes Harris with an average score of 5.5, down from 6.0 in June. Just 20% give her a score of 8 to 10 (down from 24%) and 29% rate her below 5 (up from 20%). Buttigieg earns a 5.3 electability rating (down from 5.6), Booker
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gets a 5.2 rating (from 5.3), and Klobuchar has a 4.5 rating (from 4.7). Yang also has a 4.5 rating, although he was not included in the June poll.
Biden’s electability rating has declined mainly among self-described liberals (from 7.7 in June to 6.8 now) while it has remained stable among non-liberals (from 7.8 to 7.7). Warren’s perceived electability has grown more among non-liberals (from 6.1 to 7.0) than among liberals (from 6.7 to 7.0). Similarly, Sanders’ electability score has grown more among non-liberals (from 6.1 to 6.8) than among liberals (from 6.9 to 7.2) since June. Harris has seen her rating decline more among liberals (from 6.4 to 5.3) than among non-liberals (from 5.7 to 5.4). Buttigieg’s electability score has declined among liberals (from 5.8 to 5.3) but remained stable among non-liberals (5.2 in both June and November). On average, most voters feel that the candidate they are currently supporting has a good chance of defeating Trump. Among the eight candidates tested for perceived electability in the poll, the average score from their own supporters is 8.4, including 9.0 for Biden, 8.6 for Warren, and 8.7 for Sanders. This perception is not much different than Monmouth’s June poll, when voters gave their preferred candidate an average electability rating of 8.3, including 8.9 for Biden among his supporters, 8.1 for Warren among her supporters, and 8.0 for Sanders among his supporters. Warren continues to see her ratings improve among Democrats and Democratic-leaners with every new poll. She currently earns a 79% favorable and 9% unfavorable rating, which is up from 75%- 9% in September, 65%-13% in August and 60%-14% in May. Ratings for Biden have also ticked up after having dropped in the last two Monmouth polls. He currently has a 76% favorable and 19% unfavorable
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rating, which is up from 72%-20% in September and 66%-25% in August, but similar to 74%-17% in May. The ratings for Sanders have ticked down slightly after making a big jump in the last poll. He currently has a 72% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating, compared with 75%-19% in September, 64%- 24% in August, and 65%-21% in May.
2020 CANDIDATE OPINION AMONG DEMOCRATIC VOTERS Net favorability rating: Nov ’19 Sep ’19 Aug ’19 May ’19 Apr ’19 Mar ’19 Jan ’19 Elizabeth Warren +70 +66 +52 +46 +32 +30 +40 Joe Biden +57 +52 +41 +57 +56 +63 +71 Bernie Sanders +47 +56 +40 +44 +44 +53 +49 Kamala Harris +33 +42 +39 +49 +40 +42 +33 Pete Buttigieg +33 +41 +29 +24 +29 n/a +2
The other two candidates included in this question have also seen their ratings among Democratic voters decline since September. Harris currently has a 53% favorable and 20% unfavorable rating, which is down from 60%-18% in September, 56%-17% in August, and 58%-9% in May. Buttigieg has seen his rating fall back since getting a bump last month. He currently gets a 49% favorable and 16% unfavorable rating, compared with 53%-12% in September, 43%-14% in August, and 35%-11% in May. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 30 to November 3, 2019 with 908 adults in the United States. The results in this release are based on 835 registered voters and have a +/- 3.4 percentage point sampling margin of error. This release also includes results based on 345 voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party which have a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
[Q1-7 previously released.]
[Note: Q8 was rotated with Q7-Trump impeachment question, which was released yesterday.] 8. Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be reelected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office? TREND: REGISTERED Nov. Sept. Aug. June May March Jan. Nov. VOTERS 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 Should be reelected 42% 39% 39% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% Someone else in office 55% 57% 57% 59% 60% 57% 57% 58% (VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% (n) (835) (1,017) (689) (660) (719) (746) (735) (716)
[Q9-10 previously released.]
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[Q11 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.] 11. I know the 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Democratic nomination for president if the candidates were the following? [INCLUDES LEANERS] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] TREND: Nov. Sept. Aug. June May April March Jan. (with leaners) 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Joe Biden 23% 25% 19% 32% 33% 27% 28% 29% Elizabeth Warren 23% 28% 20% 15% 10% 6% 8% 8% Bernie Sanders 20% 15% 20% 14% 15% 20% 25% 16% Pete Buttigieg 9% 5% 4% 5% 6% 8% <1% 0% Kamala Harris 5% 5% 8% 8% 11% 8% 10% 11% Cory Booker 3% 1% 4% 2% 1% 2% 5% 4% Andrew Yang 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% <1% 1% 1% Amy Klobuchar 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2% Tom Steyer 1% 1% <1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Michael Bennet <1% 0% <1% 0% <1% 0% <1% n/a Steve Bullock <1% <1% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0% n/a Tulsi Gabbard <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 0% <1% 1% Marianne Williamson <1% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% n/a Julián Castro 0% 1% 2% <1% 1% <1% 1% 1% John Delaney 0% <1% 0% 0% <1% 0% 0% <1% Joe Sestak 0% <1% <1% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a (VOL) Other 1% <1% 2% 3% 2% 5% 6% 9% (VOL) No one 1% 2% <1% 1% 2% 3% <1% 3% Beto O’Rourke * n/a 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% (VOL) Undecided 7% 10% 10% 11% 9% 14% 8% 9% (n) (345) (434) (298) (306) (334) (330) (310) (313) * O’Rourke was included in 10/30-31 interviewing only.
[Q12 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.] 12. Are you satisfied with the field of candidates running for the Democratic nomination right now or would you like to see someone else running? Nov.
2019 Satisfied with field 74% Would like someone else 16% (VOL) Don’t know 9% (n) (345)
[ASKED OF EVERYONE] 13. I’m going to read you the names of some people who are running for president in 2020. Please tell me if your general impression of each is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Very Somewhat Somewhat Very No Not TREND: ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (n) favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable opinion heard of Former Vice President Joe Biden 18% 25% 17% 33% 7% 0% (835) -- September 2019 20% 26% 18% 27% 8% 1% (1,017)
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 20% 21% 14% 40% 4% 1% (835)
-- September 2019 18% 24% 12% 37% 7% 1% (1,017)
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 20% 22% 9% 35% 9% 5% (835) -- September 2019 22% 20% 9% 31% 11% 8% (1,017)
California Senator Kamala Harris 8% 19% 13% 33% 17% 10% (835) -- September 2019 12% 21% 12% 30% 14% 11% (1,017)
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 9% 18% 13% 21% 20% 18% (835) -- September 2019 13% 17% 11% 20% 18% 21% (1,017)
President Donald Trump 34% 10% 4% 50% 2% 0% (835) -- September 2019 30% 13% 6% 50% 3% 0% (1,017)
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TREND: Favor- Unfavor- No Not (n) DEMOCRATS/DEM LEANERS ONLY able able opinion heard of Former Vice President Joe Biden 76% 19% 5% 0% (345) -- September 2019 72% 20% 7% 1% (434) -- August 2019 66% 25% 8% 1% (298) -- May 2019 74% 17% 7% 1% (334) -- April 2019 72% 16% 12% 1% (330) -- March 2019 76% 13% 9% 2% (310) -- January 2019 80% 9% 8% 3% (313)
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 72% 25% 3% 1% (345) -- September 2019 75% 19% 5% 1% (434) -- August 2019 64% 24% 10% 2% (298) -- May 2019 65% 21% 12% 2% (334) -- April 2019 65% 21% 13% 1% (330) -- March 2019 70% 17% 10% 3% (310) -- January 2019 68% 19% 9% 4% (313)
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 79% 9% 9% 4% (345) -- September 2019 75% 9% 10% 6% (434) -- August 2019 65% 13% 16% 7% (298) -- May 2019 60% 14% 14% 12% (334) -- April 2019 51% 19% 18% 12% (330) -- March 2019 49% 19% 15% 17% (310) -- January 2019 57% 17% 16% 11% (313)
California Senator Kamala Harris 53% 20% 17% 10% (345) -- September 2019 60% 18% 13% 9% (434) -- August 2019 56% 17% 16% 11% (298) -- May 2019 58% 9% 15% 18% (334) -- April 2019 50% 10% 19% 21% (330) -- March 2019 53% 11% 16% 20% (310) -- January 2019 46% 13% 21% 20% (313)
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49% 16% 21% 13% (345) -- September 2019 53% 12% 18% 17% (434) -- August 2019 43% 14% 20% 23% (298) -- May 2019 35% 11% 24% 30% (334) -- April 2019 35% 6% 25% 34% (330) -- March 2019 ------January 2019 8% 6% 27% 58% (313)
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[Q14 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS] 14. I’m going to read you the names of some Democrats who are running for president in 2020. Regardless of whether you would support them, I want to know how strong you think they would be against President Trump if they were the Democratic nominee. For each one, please rate them on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would lose to Trump and 10 means they definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 chance. You may use any number between zero and 10. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED] TREND: DEMOCRATS/DEM Definitely lose to Trump <<<<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>>>> Definitely beat Trump LEANERS ONLY 0 5 10 Not (VOL) Definitely 1 2 3 4 50/50 6 7 8 9 Definitely heard Don’t (n) lose chance win of know Former Vice President 2% 1% 1% 5% 2% 11% 11% 15% 14% 12% 25% 0% 0% (345) Joe Biden -- June 2019 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 8% 5% 14% 17% 13% 29% 0% 5% (306)
Vermont Senator 3% 0% 2% 2% 3% 16% 11% 14% 18% 10% 20% 0% 1% (345) Bernie Sanders -- June 2019 4% 2% 2% 4% 5% 16% 11% 12% 18% 8% 13% 3% 4% (306)
Massachusetts Senator 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 14% 10% 13% 20% 10% 19% 2% 2% (345) Elizabeth Warren -- June 2019 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 17% 8% 11% 11% 12% 9% 11% 5% (306)
California Senator 6% 2% 4% 6% 11% 19% 13% 11% 7% 5% 8% 5% 2% (345) Kamala Harris -- June 2019 3% 2% 2% 4% 9% 17% 9% 13% 11% 7% 6% 11% 6% (306)
Minnesota Senator 10% 3% 7% 5% 9% 20% 8% 8% 7% 0% 3% 11% 8% (345) Amy Klobuchar -- June 2019 6% 3% 2% 6% 11% 14% 9% 6% 4% 1% 4% 25% 9% (306)
South Bend, Indiana Mayor 6% 2% 4% 4% 10% 20% 12% 12% 7% 3% 6% 9% 6% (345) Pete Buttigieg -- June 2019 5% 2% 2% 5% 7% 16% 10% 11% 9% 4% 4% 18% 7% (306)
New Jersey Senator 6% 1% 5% 4% 16% 19% 9% 14% 6% 2% 4% 10% 3% (345) Cory Booker -- June 2019 5% 1% 3% 7% 6% 18% 12% 11% 7% 2% 4% 16% 6% (306)
Entrepreneur 9% 1% 6% 11% 13% 17% 9% 6% 4% 1% 5% 13% 5% (345) Andrew Yang -- June 2019 ------
[Q15-26 previously released.]
METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 30 to November 3, 2019 with a national random sample of 908 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 364 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 544 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 835 registered voters. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on the registered voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
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DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) REGISTERED VOTERS
31% Republican 39% Independent 30% Democrat
48% Male 52% Female
27% 18-34 35% 35-54 39% 55+
66% White 12% Black 14% Hispanic 8% Asian/Other
66% No degree 34% 4 year degree
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
38% Male 62% Female
29% 18-34 30% 35-54 41% 55+
56% White 26% Black 8% Hispanic 10% Asian/Other
57% No degree 43% 4 year degree
MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted moe sample (+/-) REGISTERED VOTERS 835 3.4% SELF-REPORTED Republican 257 6.1% PARTY ID Independent 340 5.3% Democrat 231 6.5% Rep + leaners 378 5.1% PARTY ID True independent 110 9.4% LEANERS ADDED Dem + leaners 345 5.3% IDEOLOGY Liberal 194 7.0% Moderate 292 5.7% Conservative 325 5.4% GENDER Male 401 4.9% Female 434 4.7% AGE 18-34 132 8.5% 35-54 342 5.3% 55+ 358 5.2% RACE White, non-Hispanic 647 3.9% Other 155 7.9% COLLEGE GRADUATE No degree 366 5.1% 4 year degree 466 4.5% WHITE COLLEGE White, no degree 289 5.8% White, 4 year degree 356 5.2% INCOME <$50K 232 6.4% $50 to <100K 254 6.2% $100K+ 279 5.9% 2016 VOTE BY COUNTY Trump 10+ pts 282 5.8% Swing <10 pts 167 7.6% Clinton 10+ pts 385 5.0%
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MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted moe
sample (+/-) DEMOCRATIC VOTERS 345 5.3% IDEOLOGY Liberal 170 7.5% Moderate/Conservative 167 7.6% GENDER Male 131 8.6% Female 214 6.7% AGE 18-49 135 8.4% 50+ 209 6.8% RACE White, non-Hispanic 245 6.3% Other 93 10.2% COLLEGE GRADUATE No degree 121 8.9% 4 year degree 224 6.6% PRIMARY CALENDAR Early state 146 8.1% After March 3 199 7.0%
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REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 8. Looking ahead to the 2020 Should be re-elected 42% 85% 38% 2% 82% 30% 2% 3% election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should Someone else should be in office 55% 11% 58% 97% 14% 64% 97% 96% be re- elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in [VOL] Dont know 3% 3% 4% 1% 4% 7% 1% 1% office?
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 8. Looking ahead to the 2020 Should be re-elected 30% 75% 49% 34% 31% 47% 44% 48% 29% election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should Someone else should be in office 66% 23% 48% 62% 64% 50% 54% 49% 68% be re- elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in [VOL] Dont know 5% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 1% 3% 3% office?
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 8. Looking ahead to the 2020 Should be re-elected 48% 28% 55% 34% 36% 47% 39% election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should Someone else should be in office 49% 69% 42% 63% 60% 51% 58% be re- elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in [VOL] Dont know 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% office?
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 8. Looking ahead to the 2020 Should be re-elected 62% 38% 29% election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should Someone else should be in office 35% 62% 67% be re- elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in [VOL] Dont know 3% 0% 4% office?
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REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 11. I know the Joe Biden 23% 13% 34% 18% 27% 21% 26% 18% 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Bernie Sanders 20% 23% 17% 28% 15% 33% 10% 17% Democratic nomination for Elizabeth Warren 23% 26% 17% 19% 25% 17% 28% 29% president if the candidates were the following:? [with leaners] Kamala Harris 5% 8% 2% 4% 6% 3% 7% 5% [Names below received at least 1 vote. See release for full list of 16 Amy Klobuchar 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% cands] Pete Buttigieg 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 5% 12% 12% Cory Booker 3% 5% 1% 2% 3% 5% 1% 3% Tulsi Gabbard 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Andrew Yang 3% 5% 2% 6% 1% 6% 1% 2% Marianne Williamson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Steve Bullock 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tom Steyer 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% [VOL] Other 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% [VOL] No one 1% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 2% 1% [VOL] Dont know 7% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 11. I know the Joe Biden 31% 23% 24% 22% 25% 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Bernie Sanders 24% 21% 18% 20% 20% Democratic nomination for Elizabeth Warren 15% 22% 24% 20% 25% president if the candidates were the following:? [with leaners] Kamala Harris 6% 5% 5% 4% 6% [Names below received at least 1 vote. See release for full list of 16 Amy Klobuchar 1% 0% 4% 3% 2% cands] Pete Buttigieg 4% 9% 10% 10% 9% Cory Booker 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tulsi Gabbard 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Andrew Yang 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% Marianne Williamson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Steve Bullock 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Michael Bennet 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tom Steyer 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% [VOL] Other 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% [VOL] No one 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% [VOL] Dont know 8% 8% 6% 8% 7%
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REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 12. Are you Satisfied with field 74% 82% 69% 76% 73% 76% 72% 77% satisfied with the field of candidates running for the Would like someone else 16% 11% 22% 15% 17% 15% 18% 17% Democratic nomination right now or would you like to see someone [VOL] Dont know 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 6% else running?
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 12. Are you Satisfied with field 71% 72% 77% 69% 78% satisfied with the field of candidates running for the Would like someone else 16% 17% 15% 21% 13% Democratic nomination right now or would you like to see someone [VOL] Dont know 13% 11% 8% 10% 9% else running?
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13A. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 18% 4% 10% 42% 3% 8% 38% 26% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 25% 7% 30% 36% 8% 39% 38% 40% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 17% 20% 22% 8% 22% 21% 10% 11% have an opinion]: Former Vice President Joe Biden? Very unfavorable 33% 61% 29% 10% 59% 23% 9% 15% No opinion 7% 8% 8% 3% 7% 9% 5% 7% Not heard of 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13A. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 22% 9% 13% 23% 16% 16% 21% 16% 22% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 35% 7% 21% 28% 26% 21% 26% 22% 29% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 17% 22% 17% 17% 19% 18% 15% 16% 20% have an opinion]: Former Vice President Joe Biden? Very unfavorable 21% 54% 41% 26% 31% 35% 33% 38% 24% No opinion 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 5% Not heard of 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13A. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 13% 30% 11% 17% 25% 13% 16% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 26% 23% 21% 35% 21% 31% 27% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 19% 13% 18% 21% 17% 15% 16% have an opinion]: Former Vice President Joe Biden? Very unfavorable 35% 29% 41% 24% 28% 34% 36% No opinion 7% 5% 8% 3% 9% 5% 6% Not heard of 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
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2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13A. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 13% 17% 23% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 22% 24% 27% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 18% 21% 15% have an opinion]: Former Vice President Joe Biden? Very unfavorable 41% 32% 28% No opinion 6% 7% 7% Not heard of 1% 0% 1%
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13B. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 20% 3% 18% 40% 2% 16% 40% 42% general impression is very/somewhatf avorable or Somewhat favorable 21% 7% 25% 31% 7% 33% 32% 35% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 14% 9% 16% 17% 11% 17% 17% 15% have an opinion]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders? Very unfavorable 40% 76% 36% 10% 75% 27% 8% 4% No opinion 4% 4% 5% 2% 4% 7% 3% 3% Not heard of 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13B. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 21% 5% 20% 20% 33% 16% 14% 19% 22% general impression is very/somewhatf avorable or Somewhat favorable 26% 10% 17% 25% 21% 20% 21% 19% 25% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 17% 10% 15% 14% 10% 16% 16% 13% 18% have an opinion]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders? Very unfavorable 30% 72% 45% 36% 32% 43% 43% 44% 33% No opinion 5% 3% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 2% Not heard of 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13B. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 13% 34% 13% 13% 21% 22% 15% general impression is very/somewhatf avorable or Somewhat favorable 22% 20% 19% 27% 23% 20% 24% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 14% 14% 12% 19% 15% 13% 18% have an opinion]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders? Very unfavorable 45% 29% 49% 38% 34% 44% 40% No opinion 5% 1% 6% 3% 7% 1% 3% Not heard of 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13B. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 6% 28% 26% general impression is very/somewhatf avorable or Somewhat favorable 20% 17% 23% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 15% 11% 16% have an opinion]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders? Very unfavorable 52% 39% 33% No opinion 6% 5% 2% Not heard of 2% 0% 0%
Page 4 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13C. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 20% 2% 15% 44% 2% 8% 42% 49% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 22% 9% 21% 36% 8% 25% 37% 33% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 9% 8% 14% 4% 11% 14% 6% 6% have an opinion]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren? Very unfavorable 35% 69% 34% 4% 68% 27% 3% 2% No opinion 9% 4% 14% 6% 4% 23% 9% 7% Not heard of 5% 7% 2% 5% 6% 3% 4% 3%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13C. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 16% 4% 17% 22% 17% 19% 22% 18% 22% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 30% 9% 21% 24% 29% 16% 23% 19% 28% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 12% 9% 10% 9% 8% 10% 10% 8% 12% have an opinion]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren? Very unfavorable 26% 65% 42% 29% 29% 41% 36% 39% 28% No opinion 11% 6% 7% 10% 10% 11% 6% 9% 8% Not heard of 5% 6% 3% 6% 8% 3% 4% 7% 1%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13C. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 20% 20% 17% 25% 21% 16% 26% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 17% 34% 14% 24% 21% 24% 20% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 10% 7% 10% 11% 8% 11% 11% have an opinion]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren? Very unfavorable 41% 24% 44% 33% 28% 39% 36% No opinion 6% 12% 6% 7% 12% 8% 5% Not heard of 6% 2% 9% 1% 10% 3% 2%
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13C. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 11% 19% 25% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 17% 26% 25% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 10% 7% 10% have an opinion]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren? Very unfavorable 42% 35% 31% No opinion 11% 8% 7% Not heard of 8% 5% 2%
Page 5 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13D. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 8% 2% 4% 21% 2% 1% 18% 18% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 19% 3% 17% 37% 5% 13% 35% 34% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 13% 11% 16% 12% 12% 14% 14% 15% have an opinion]: California Senator Kamala Harris? Very unfavorable 33% 60% 32% 7% 62% 21% 6% 9% No opinion 17% 13% 25% 11% 12% 36% 17% 14% Not heard of 10% 11% 6% 12% 8% 15% 10% 10%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13D. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 8% 2% 7% 9% 5% 12% 8% 8% 10% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 22% 6% 16% 21% 13% 15% 26% 15% 25% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 16% 10% 14% 11% 16% 13% 10% 9% 20% have an opinion]: California Senator Kamala Harris? Very unfavorable 23% 57% 43% 24% 27% 35% 36% 37% 24% No opinion 20% 15% 13% 21% 22% 17% 14% 18% 16% Not heard of 11% 10% 6% 13% 18% 8% 6% 13% 5%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13D. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 7% 13% 5% 10% 11% 5% 12% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 20% 16% 17% 27% 16% 20% 21% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 13% 13% 11% 17% 10% 15% 17% have an opinion]: California Senator Kamala Harris? Very unfavorable 36% 25% 40% 28% 26% 38% 33% No opinion 14% 22% 15% 13% 21% 17% 12% Not heard of 10% 11% 12% 5% 16% 4% 5%
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13D. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 5% 6% 11% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 14% 21% 21% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 10% 12% 16% have an opinion]: California Senator Kamala Harris? Very unfavorable 43% 32% 26% No opinion 18% 18% 17% Not heard of 10% 11% 9%
Page 6 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13E. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 9% 1% 7% 21% 1% 5% 20% 22% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 18% 5% 19% 31% 7% 20% 29% 33% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 13% 12% 18% 8% 16% 13% 10% 7% have an opinion]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg? Very unfavorable 21% 42% 17% 6% 37% 13% 6% 9% No opinion 20% 17% 24% 18% 16% 31% 21% 20% Not heard of 18% 24% 14% 15% 23% 18% 13% 9%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13E. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 11% 1% 7% 12% 5% 11% 11% 7% 14% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 23% 7% 15% 21% 14% 18% 21% 16% 24% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 12% 16% 16% 10% 15% 14% 11% 11% 16% have an opinion]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg? Very unfavorable 10% 38% 30% 12% 19% 18% 25% 22% 18% No opinion 22% 17% 17% 23% 22% 20% 18% 22% 17% Not heard of 22% 21% 15% 21% 24% 19% 13% 22% 11%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13E. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 12% 4% 8% 20% 8% 8% 14% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 21% 14% 19% 25% 20% 17% 23% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 13% 12% 12% 14% 11% 13% 16% have an opinion]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg? Very unfavorable 22% 20% 24% 16% 16% 25% 19% No opinion 16% 28% 17% 15% 22% 24% 12% Not heard of 16% 22% 20% 9% 24% 12% 15%
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13E. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 5% 9% 12% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 15% 22% 19% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 12% 17% 12% have an opinion]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg? Very unfavorable 24% 19% 20% No opinion 21% 17% 21% Not heard of 21% 17% 17%
Page 7 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO POLITICAL VOTE PARTY ID PARTY ID-LEANERS ADDED IDEOLOGY Yes Rep Ind Dem Rep+leaners True Ind Dem+leaners Lib 13F. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 34% 72% 27% 3% 67% 20% 2% 2% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 10% 15% 13% 0% 17% 13% 1% 2% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 4% 2% 9% 2% 4% 10% 3% 3% have an opinion]: President Donald Trump? Very unfavorable 50% 8% 50% 93% 9% 54% 93% 91% No opinion 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% Not heard of 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 3-WAY COLLEGE GRAD Mod Con Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ No degree 4 yr degree 13F. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 22% 63% 39% 29% 18% 36% 43% 40% 22% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 10% 14% 13% 7% 13% 13% 4% 10% 9% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 7% 2% 6% 3% 9% 3% 2% 2% 8% have an opinion]: President Donald Trump? Very unfavorable 58% 18% 40% 59% 55% 45% 50% 45% 60% No opinion 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 0% 3% 1% Not heard of 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
RACE WHITE COLLEGE DEGREE INCOME White non-Hisp Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth White no degree White college <$50K $50-100K $100K+ 13F. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 38% 25% 44% 25% 33% 34% 31% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 12% 6% 11% 12% 8% 14% 9% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 4% 5% 2% 7% 3% 7% 3% have an opinion]: President Donald Trump? Very unfavorable 44% 63% 39% 56% 54% 43% 56% No opinion 2% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% 1% Not heard of 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
2016 MARGIN by COUNTY Trump 10+pts Swing <10pts Clinton 10+pts 13F. [Please tell me if your Very favorable 53% 31% 22% general impression is very/somewhat favorable or Somewhat favorable 11% 9% 9% unfavorable, or if you don’t really Somewhat unfavorable 2% 2% 6% have an opinion]: President Donald Trump? Very unfavorable 31% 56% 61% No opinion 2% 2% 2% Not heard of 1% 0% 0%
Page 8 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14A. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 5% 9% 1% 8% 3% 9% 2% 4% chance]: Former Vice President Joe Biden 4 2% 4% 1% 5% 0% 4% 1% 2% 5 - 50-50 chance 11% 13% 9% 11% 11% 14% 8% 15% 6 11% 12% 12% 11% 11% 16% 8% 10% 7 15% 16% 16% 17% 14% 19% 12% 18% 8 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 12% 16% 18% 9 12% 13% 12% 11% 13% 7% 15% 12% 10 - definitely win 25% 16% 30% 19% 29% 16% 33% 16% Not heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% [VOL] Dont know 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14A. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 7% 5% 5% 8% 3% chance]: Former Vice President Joe Biden 4 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 5 - 50-50 chance 7% 11% 11% 18% 5% 6 13% 10% 13% 9% 13% 7 12% 15% 14% 16% 14% 8 10% 9% 21% 15% 14% 9 12% 12% 12% 10% 14% 10 - definitely win 36% 32% 17% 19% 31% Not heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% [VOL] Dont know 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Page 9 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14B. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 0% 5% 4% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 0% 4% 4% chance]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 4 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% 5% 2% 5% 5 - 50-50 chance 16% 12% 20% 12% 19% 13% 18% 16% 6 11% 12% 9% 9% 12% 10% 11% 14% 7 14% 18% 11% 19% 10% 17% 10% 16% 8 18% 19% 18% 15% 20% 21% 15% 17% 9 10% 11% 10% 12% 9% 14% 7% 9% 10 - definitely win 20% 18% 18% 25% 17% 16% 23% 11% [VOL] Dont know 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14B. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 1% 4% 1% 2% 4% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 0% 1% 3% 1% 3% chance]: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 4 1% 2% 5% 4% 3% 5 - 50-50 chance 15% 14% 19% 21% 13% 6 7% 10% 11% 12% 10% 7 11% 12% 15% 16% 12% 8 20% 13% 24% 15% 20% 9 12% 12% 8% 11% 9% 10 - definitely win 31% 26% 11% 15% 23% [VOL] Dont know 2% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Page 10 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14C. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 3% 3% 3% 6% 1% 4% 2% 2% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% 4% chance]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 4 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% 5 - 50-50 chance 14% 16% 13% 13% 15% 18% 12% 14% 6 10% 12% 10% 14% 8% 15% 7% 10% 7 13% 16% 12% 6% 18% 15% 13% 17% 8 20% 19% 22% 22% 19% 19% 21% 19% 9 10% 9% 11% 8% 11% 6% 12% 12% 10 - definitely win 19% 17% 16% 20% 18% 6% 29% 16% Not heard of 2% 0% 5% 0% 4% 4% 1% 2% [VOL] Dont know 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 4% 0% 1%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14C. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 4% 2% 4% 1% 4% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 1% 3% 2% 4% 2% chance]: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 4 4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 5 - 50-50 chance 16% 15% 13% 17% 12% 6 11% 7% 15% 12% 9% 7 8% 12% 16% 15% 13% 8 22% 18% 23% 25% 17% 9 6% 9% 11% 8% 11% 10 - definitely win 23% 24% 12% 11% 25% Not heard of 3% 4% 0% 3% 2% [VOL] Dont know 3% 3% 1% 1% 3%
Page 11 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14D. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 6% 6% 7% 10% 4% 7% 6% 4% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 4% 3% 6% 2% 6% 5% 3% 3% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 6% 7% 5% 4% 7% 9% 4% 4% chance]: California Senator Kamala Harris 4 11% 14% 10% 16% 9% 15% 8% 12% 5 - 50-50 chance 19% 20% 18% 14% 22% 15% 22% 19% 6 13% 14% 12% 17% 11% 14% 12% 20% 7 11% 13% 9% 11% 11% 9% 12% 14% 8 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 6% 9 5% 2% 8% 2% 7% 2% 8% 3% 10 - definitely win 8% 6% 6% 11% 6% 4% 11% 5% Not heard of 5% 2% 9% 2% 7% 7% 4% 6% [VOL] Dont know 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14D. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 9% 6% 6% 6% 7% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 8% 4% 9% 7% 5% chance]: California Senator Kamala Harris 4 11% 7% 16% 13% 10% 5 - 50-50 chance 19% 18% 20% 17% 21% 6 5% 13% 13% 15% 11% 7 7% 8% 15% 12% 11% 8 8% 6% 9% 5% 9% 9 8% 6% 3% 5% 5% 10 - definitely win 12% 12% 3% 7% 8% Not heard of 4% 8% 1% 6% 5% [VOL] Dont know 4% 3% 1% 1% 3%
Page 12 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14E. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 10% 10% 9% 15% 7% 12% 8% 5% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 7% 8% 7% 8% 6% 11% 4% 4% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 4% 7% chance]: Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 4 9% 10% 8% 12% 7% 9% 9% 8% 5 - 50-50 chance 20% 20% 21% 16% 22% 19% 20% 18% 6 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 9% 13% 7 8% 11% 7% 9% 8% 5% 11% 11% 8 7% 7% 8% 5% 8% 4% 9% 8% 9 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 10 - definitely win 3% 1% 3% 5% 2% 1% 5% 3% Not heard of 11% 11% 12% 9% 13% 17% 7% 12% [VOL] Dont know 8% 6% 8% 6% 9% 2% 12% 6%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14E. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 15% 9% 11% 10% 10% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 3% 3% 5% 2% 5% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 9% 6% 8% 10% 5% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 2% 4% 7% 4% 6% chance]: Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar 4 10% 8% 10% 10% 8% 5 - 50-50 chance 22% 17% 24% 22% 18% 6 2% 8% 8% 10% 6% 7 6% 8% 9% 7% 10% 8 5% 8% 6% 6% 8% 9 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 10 - definitely win 4% 5% 2% 4% 2% Not heard of 11% 14% 7% 11% 12% [VOL] Dont know 10% 12% 3% 5% 10%
Page 13 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14F. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 6% 6% 7% 9% 5% 8% 5% 3% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% 0% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 4% 2% 6% 2% 5% 7% 1% 2% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 4% 5% 3% 6% 2% 5% 2% 3% chance]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 4 10% 8% 12% 14% 8% 12% 9% 9% 5 - 50-50 chance 20% 23% 19% 15% 23% 23% 18% 23% 6 12% 16% 9% 13% 11% 11% 12% 15% 7 12% 12% 13% 11% 13% 9% 14% 16% 8 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 4% 9% 9% 9 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 1% 6% 3% 10 - definitely win 6% 4% 5% 5% 6% 3% 8% 5% Not heard of 9% 5% 12% 7% 9% 11% 7% 7% [VOL] Dont know 6% 8% 3% 6% 6% 4% 8% 4%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14F. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 10% 4% 10% 8% 5% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 4% 2% 1% 4% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 6% 3% 4% 5% 3% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 4% 1% 7% 3% 4% chance]: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg 4 12% 11% 9% 12% 9% 5 - 50-50 chance 17% 21% 19% 20% 20% 6 9% 13% 10% 10% 13% 7 6% 11% 13% 10% 13% 8 3% 4% 10% 6% 7% 9 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 10 - definitely win 5% 7% 3% 6% 6% Not heard of 11% 9% 8% 11% 7% [VOL] Dont know 10% 10% 2% 3% 9%
Page 14 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14G. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 4% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 8% 2% 4% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% chance]: New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 4 16% 21% 13% 19% 14% 20% 13% 13% 5 - 50-50 chance 19% 16% 22% 19% 19% 13% 24% 24% 6 9% 11% 9% 11% 8% 11% 8% 11% 7 14% 18% 11% 14% 14% 12% 16% 17% 8 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 4% 7% 7% 9 2% 1% 4% 0% 4% 1% 3% 1% 10 - definitely win 4% 2% 5% 5% 4% 1% 7% 3% Not heard of 10% 6% 12% 7% 11% 15% 6% 9% [VOL] Dont know 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14G. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 6% 6% 3% 4% 5% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 5% 2% 7% 6% 3% chance]: New Jersey Senator Cory Booker 4 20% 14% 19% 16% 17% 5 - 50-50 chance 14% 20% 18% 16% 22% 6 7% 7% 12% 10% 9% 7 11% 14% 14% 15% 13% 8 4% 5% 7% 5% 7% 9 4% 3% 1% 2% 3% 10 - definitely win 6% 6% 2% 4% 5% Not heard of 11% 13% 5% 13% 7% [VOL] Dont know 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Page 15 Monmouth University Poll -- NATIONAL REG VOTERS -- 11/06/19
REGISTERED TO VOTE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY GENDER AGE 2-WAY RACE Yes Lib Mod-Con Male Female 18-49 50+ White non-Hisp DEM VOTERS: 14H. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 11% 7% 7% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 3% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 8% 4% 6% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 11% 11% 12% 7% 13% 14% 9% 10% chance]: Entrepreneur Andrew Yang 4 13% 16% 11% 14% 13% 12% 15% 18% 5 - 50-50 chance 17% 17% 17% 19% 15% 13% 20% 18% 6 9% 11% 7% 10% 7% 11% 7% 8% 7 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 3% 8% 5% 8 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 9 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 10 - definitely win 5% 4% 5% 10% 2% 5% 5% 2% Not heard of 13% 7% 17% 9% 16% 11% 15% 14% [VOL] Dont know 5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 4% 6% 5%
RACE COLLEGE GRAD State Primary-Caucus Calendar Hsp-Blk-Asn-Oth No degree 4 yr degree Early After March 3 DEM VOTERS: 14H. [Please rate 0 - definitely lose 11% 9% 9% 9% 10% on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would 1 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% lose to Trump and 10 means they 2 5% 3% 10% 4% 7% definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 3 13% 6% 18% 11% 11% chance]: Entrepreneur Andrew Yang 4 6% 16% 9% 14% 12% 5 - 50-50 chance 16% 16% 18% 15% 18% 6 10% 7% 10% 9% 8% 7 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8 5% 5% 4% 6% 3% 9 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 10 - definitely win 9% 7% 3% 7% 3% Not heard of 12% 18% 7% 13% 13% [VOL] Dont know 5% 6% 3% 3% 6%
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