Horizon Scanning-Metafore Towards a Shared Future-Base for the European Research Area Stephan De Spiegeleire, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) Report March 2013

Introduction Europe is one of the global leaders in strategic foresighti. From a continent that was mired in its own troubled and conlict‐ridden past, Europe has been gradually emerging over the past few decades as a region that wants to jointly and conidently embrace its future. The European Union is widely acknowledged as playing a key role in this transformation. Its very existence is forcing its member states and their citizens to explore new forms of governance in order to remain globally competitive in a future world that keeps changing at vertiginous speeds. Its high‐level initiatives such as ‘Europe 2020’ intend to push the European policy agenda towards ambitious objectives in areas such as employment, innovation, education, social inclusion and climate/energy. But nowhere is the forward‐leaning nature of the EU more visible than in the research area, where the European Union has been funding long‐term transnational framework programmes in many of the most promising ields of scientiic discovery. The size and scopeii of many of these programmes are truly unique – even in comparison to analogous ones in the United States, Japan or (increasingly) China. Foresight is an important ingredient in this overall research agenda. Across its different research priorities, the EU may very well fund more foresight work than any other actor in the world. And yet many of these efforts remain largely uncoordinated. Most research projects that address ‘the future’ tend to start from scratch and to do their own foresight work in their own ields with their own methods. This paper will examine whether it might be possible to develop a shared European future‐base by describing some experiences that were accumulated by a small European policy think tank from The Netherlands – the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies – that is primarily working in the ield of strategic studies. HCSS has been performing foresight work for various (national and multinational) public and private customers for about a decade now, and has also started building a more systematic ‘future‐base’ containing insights from a broad variety of global foresight studies. This paper will start by introducing the idea and the rationale behind such a ‘future‐base’, will then describe the method used by HCSS and present some examples from foresight studies published in 2012 in the ield of security. It will conclude with a brief analogous analysis of a number of EU FP7‐funded studies in order to show how EU research priorities could be compared to some of the indings from a future‐base like exercise.

Towards a European Future‐Base The idea that policy‐making should become increasingly ‘evidence‐based’ is becoming ever more engrained in the minds of policy‐makers across the globeiii. The main ambition behind this idea is to help “people make well informed decisions about policies, programmes and projects by putting the best available evidence from research at the heart of policy development and implementation. iv ” “ [ T ] h e evidence based approach to decision making has gained momentum in recent years as it strives to improve the eficiency and effectiveness of policy making processes by focusing on ‘what works’v”.

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But facts and evidence are by deinition about the past or – at best – the present. So what about the future? There are, by deinition, no ‘data’, no ‘facts’, no ‘evidence’ about the futurevi. In fact we are bombarded daily with various diverging views, visions, opinions about the future; with numerous quantitative attempts to extrapolate data about the future from data about the past (an endeavour that has proved quite perilous in many policy domains); and with various methodologies that the foresight community applies to ‘vision’ different futures. Although many of those elements may have numerous redeeming characteristics (they are often inspiring, challenging, threatening, amusing, etc.), it remains profoundly frustrating that we have no ways of empirically validating their reliability ex‐ante. And the few serious studies that have tried to assess their reliability ex‐post have arrived at quite bleak indingsvii. How then can we attempt to deal with the future in as dispassionate and rigorous a way as possible? And – most importantly – in a way that is actually useful for decision‐makers. What is the equivalent for the future of what ‘evidence’ is for the past and present? The The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has been struggling (and continues to struggle) with this question for the past decade. We conduct applied strategic research for a number of public and (to a smaller extent) private sector customers in The Netherlands and beyond, and have been looking for ways to present decision‐makers with as balanced and informative an overview of the different insights about the future as we can muster. We try hard not to take sides in the many substantive, ideological, methodological, political, etc. debates that permeate discussions about the future. We are constantly and painfully reminded in our work of the various well‐known pathologies that we humans encounter when we try to wrap our minds around the futureviii. And so, with our eyes wide open, we have developed a set of tools to both collect, process and visualize an ever larger number of serious foresight studies (in multiple language domains) with an eye towards mapping the bandwidth of the various views about the future in a number of policy ields. We have called this approach ‘Meta‐fore’, representing HCSS’ attempt to lift the debate about the future to a higher level: beyond trying to predict the future (forecasting) towards critically but constructively developing and curating a more intellectually modest and honest overview of various diverse insights ix culled from a variety of different methodological approaches, academic disciplines, ideological schools, cultural backgrounds, etc. ((meta‐)foresighting).

Figure 1 Future‐Base

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The main ideas behind the development of such a broader shared future‐base are closely related to recent insights from the ield of complexity theoryx. If, as recent events seem to illustrate quite vividly, many of today’s most burning policy challenges are complex in the sense that they are the emergent result of the interaction between many (often poorly or at least incompletely understoodxi) intertwined actors and factors, then it also stand to reason that the solutions to these challenges are likely to be the emergent result of the actions of a variety of different actors that are directly or indirectly involved in them. Most of these actors are likely to have their own idiosyncratic views and perspectives on what the future might bring and what their role might be. Although many (none more than governments or international organisations) may perceive themselves as being at the centre of that constantly self‐reconiguring complex ecosystem, very few – if any – are likely to end up there. But some key actors could still position themselves more centrally by mapping these different futuribles and by depositing and curating them in a future‐base, by putting that future‐base at the disposal of a broader audience and by thus nudgingxii their own ecosystem to become more future‐oriented and possibly even future‐proof. We submit that the European Union may be ideally positioned to do this in a European context. To illustrate what such a future‐base might look like, the remainder of this paper will document the process through which we at HCSS have started building our own Metafore Future‐base with a particular focus on the efforts we made last year. We will present the approach and some sample indings from the (multilingual) Metafore‐work we have done in 2012 in one policy domain – ‘national security’. This work is based on one of the contributions HCSS made to the Dutch government’s 2012 Strategic Monitorxiii, a yearly public interdepartmental effort by the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Security and Justice to sketch some of the key new future developments in the area of ‘national security’. This corresponds to the ‘security’ part of the European Union’s broader societal challenge ‘Inclusive, innovative and secure societies’ within Horizon 2020xiv . While only a small element in the broader ‘Horizon 2020’ agenda, it is our hope that we can demonstrate what a broader future‐base – also beyond the ‘security’ topic that will be developed in this paper – might look like based on our own experiences in one policy domain.

The HCSS ‘Metafore’‐Methodology HCSS maintains a database with security‐related foresight studies in different language domains. This year, the Dutch Ministry of Defense asked HCSS to update this database with security‐relevant foresight studies published last year in a number of different language domains and to systematically compare the views they contain about the future of the international system from a security perspective. The languages selected included English, French, German, Romanian, Russian, Chinese, and Turkish. The irst four language domains give an overview of Western perspectives, whereas the three other language domains capture views of other major regions that already play or are likely to play an important role in the global security environment. Our analysis of these indings draws upon an approach to foresight that has been developed by HCSS: the Metafore protocol. The protocol will be described succinctly in the next section; interested readers are referred to the HCSS online brochurexv and to some previous HCSS reports using the same approachxvi.

The Team

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HCSS assembled a multilingual team to conduct this analysis. Our partners were located in Ukraine for the Russian language domain, Singapore and the United States (hereinafter: US) for the Chinese language domain, and Ankara for the Turkish work. One Ukrainian, two Chinese and two Turkish analysts participated in the study alongside a 6‐person (also international, representing another 5 nationalities) in‐house team. The team coordinated its activities through various communication methods, in particular Rizzoma, a web‐based collaboration environment. Throughout the process, Rizzoma proved very Figure 2 The 2012 Meta‐Foresight Ecosystem useful in organizing the international foresight work with our Meta‐Foresight ecosystem, and keeping track of the research progress.

The Collection Process

Online search: Tools and queries The HCSS team collected a broad set of publicly available foresight studies on the future of the international security environment for the various language domains. These studies were published between 2011 and 2012 by diverse sources, including governmental, intergovernmental (e.g., OECD, United Nations), private sector or academic organizations, and with projections for the next twenty years and beyond. Each partner carried out research on the Internet using search engines with an analogous search algorithm that was deined and translated for each language domain. The algorithm consisted of four main ‘semantic baskets’: ● ‘Security’ as a central search term; ‘defense’; ‘security environment’; ‘national security’; ‘international security’; ● ‘The future’: words such as ‘foresight’, ‘forecast’, ‘scenarios’, ‘trends’, ‘drivers’, ‘in the future’, ‘21st century’, etc.; ● ‘International: the study or document had to deal with the broader international security environment, for which we used the world ‘global’; ● ‘Policy’: to ensure the studies were also policy‐relevant, we also included the word policy.

An example of an early search query in the English‐language domain was: (security OR defense OR defence) AND (foresight OR scenarios OR trends OR futures OR forecast) AND 2020..2050 AND policy ‐ "social security", with custom range: (from 1/1/2011). For the German search, we deined the following query: (Sicherheit OR Verteidigung) UND (Vorschau OR Szenarien OR Trends OR Zukunft OR Zukunftsforschung) UND (Politik OR Bestimmung OR Regel OR Richtlinie) UND (2020 OR 2025 OR 2030 OR 2035 OR 2040 OR 2050) iletype:pdf. In Chinese: 未来国际安全 (future + international security) 全球 安全环境展望 (global security + environment + forecast) 安全/冲突/和平(security/conlict/peace) AND 国 际/世界/多 边 (International/Global/Multinational) AND 未来/愿景/展望/预测/评估/趋势 (Future/Prospect/Forecast/Evaluation/Tendency). For the Turkish collection effort: (Güvenlik OR tehdit OR Savunma) AND (Gelecekte OR Vizyon OR O ngörü OR Senaryo OR Politika OR Strateji) AND (Uluslararası OR Bölgesel OR Ulusal OR Kü resel) AND iletype:pdf. Although in subsequent search iterations some adjustments were necessary to obtain more or better results, the objective always remained to yield comparable results across language domains and to avoid

4 substantive biases. Google (including Google Scholar) was the main search engine that was used for all language domains, but on top of it the team also searched Yandex and Rambler for Russian and Baidu for Chinese studies. In addition, the team searched full‐text academic databases and the websites of some key research institutes, think tanks or governmental agencies resources. This allowed the team to identify a fairly large set of relevant foresights from respectable organizations. The results that were thus obtained were narrowed down based on a number of additional criteria. With respect to the content, the documents had to deal with the future, the security environment, and have a wide enough focus. The topics could be broader than purely security (e.g. energy or inance), as long as the foresights dealt with their implications on the international or national security environments (e.g. energy and security or inance and security). The sources of the documents we were looking for included governmental sources (military doctrines, security strategies, defense reviews), academia (books and periodicals), research institutes, substantive statements by public intellectuals, industry representatives, religious leaders or philosophers, etc. In addition, the studies had to be published in 2011 or 2012, with a time horizon of 2020 and beyond. Their length had to be at least over ten pages. Studies were included in the inal selection if and only if the author(s) had invested a considerable amount of time and effort in their production, and expressed a clear analytical line of argumentation. Documents that fulilled all of these criteria were then downloaded and added to the HCSS Metafore futurebase. The envisaged number of studies to be downloaded this year was about a hundred per language domain. 120 100 80 60 Western 40 20 Russian 0 Chinese Turkish

Figure 3. Western, Russian, Chinese and Turkish foresights by type of publishing organization

The overall focus We focused our research efforts primarily on ‘general’ studies, i.e., whose focus are chiely on the general aspects of security. However, the search queries led to the collection of a number of foresights that were studying more speciic topics. For instance, the English set had the following breakdown:

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0 5 10 15 20 25

General Defense Energy Technology Water Financial and Economic Development Logistics Natural Resources Cyber Environment Sustainable Development Food (security) and Agriculture Nuclear Terrorism Africa

Figure 4. English‐language foresights by topic Figure 4 shows that on the English language domain, the studies that the team found last year remained chiely in the realm of defense (e.g., publications on security strategies, armed forces, etc.). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

General Strategy Defense NATO Security Energy Nuclear Terrorism Financial and Economic Development Technology Cyberspace Environment Sustainable Development Natural Resources Water Biosecurity Food (security) and Agriculture Demographics Western Migration Russian Human Development Chinese Politics/Geopolitics Foreign Policy Turkish Regional Development Cooperation Frameworks Religion; Foreign Policy; and Security Religion Innovations Science European Union USA Africa Iran Russia Ukraine Black Sea Afghanistan Media Export control Intelligence Logistics

Figure 5. Western, Russian, Chinese and Turkish foresights by topic

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Figure 5 shows the studies broken down by topics across the different language domains based on the meta‐data that our Metafore‐team entered in the database for each study.

The Coding Process Once retrieved across the different language domains, the identiied foresight were analyzed based on a number of analytical categories. To do this in a systematic way, the team did not merely read the studies, but also subjected them to a double (manual and automated) coding process.

Manual coding For the manual coding, the team used a collaborative coding software program called Dedoose. The objective was to carefully tag the relevant passages from these texts based on a single coding scheme. This allowed us then to systematically compare the relative importance of various elements of the coding scheme (e.g., a certain region, or a certain theme) across languages. Analysts in the Russian and English teams had prior coding experience. The other partners were trained by the HCSS team through instructional materials (examples of coding and coding results, video clips, etc.) and through intensive feedback on Rizzoma. Issues encountered during the coding were discussed on Rizzoma, where the team was able to brainstorm and agree on common solutions.

Coding scheme All team members labeled (‘coded’) all relevant speciic passages describing key future security developments across the selected literature in Dedoose based on a singe coding scheme. ‘Key developments’ are the full selected text fragments or ‘excerpts’ in Dedoose. They had to be focused on future‐oriented and ongoing trends that were either national or international and security‐oriented. These developments could be both of a negative (security dangers, threats, risks), positive (opportunities, positive trends) or neutral nature. Past and strictly current events were not coded. Key developments were labeled according to their main topics ‐ for instance: ‘The costs of environmental degradation’, ‘The rise of new and/or major powers’, or ‘Efforts and investments in renewable resources’. After the coding process, this yielded a long list of ‘key developments’. ‘Actors’ are the main parties mentioned in various text fragments that may get involved in future security developments. To facilitate the analysis within the scenario framework, we coded either ‘State actors’, ‘Non‐state actors’ (the two main categories in the scenario framework of the Future Policy Survey (‘Verkenningen’)) or ‘Intergovernmental organizations’ (IGOs, including organizations such as the UN, the WHO, the EU or regional economic unions). Wherever applicable, the team also labeled the anticipated level of cooperation between these actors as either ‘more cooperative’ or ‘less cooperative’. ‘Regions’ are the geographical areas where key developments occur and which are thought to be strategically important. If a foresight only dealt with Japan or Kazakhstan or was very much focused on a particular region of strategic importance (e.g., the Black Sea region), the team coded and labeled these regions as such. In order to adapt to the different terms used across foresights, we deined a number of region types, including continents (e.g., Africa), groups of countries (e.g., developing world, developed world, BRICS, EU), strategic regions (e.g., the Arctic, the Paciic or the Black Sea region), or speciic, signiicant or sizeable countries that play or will play a major role in security (e.g., the US, Europe, China, Russia, Brazil, etc.). ‘Drivers’ are forces that are likely to trigger changes in the future and generate elements of the key development. As we were coding, we deined a number of high‐level drivers with a number of sub‐drivers. The main categories of drivers were: Political; Economic; Science, Technology and Cyber; Military Power; Resources; Nature and Environment; Health; Societal /Cultural; Demographics; Globalization; 7

Criminality; Ideas; and More uncertainty. Each of these higher‐level drivers also contained a number of sub‐drivers. To give an example: for the ‘Economic’ driver, subdrivers included ‘Unemployment’, ‘Economic growth’, Economic infrastructure’, ‘Financial/debt crisis’, ‘Austerity’, ‘Poverty’ or ‘Market, monetary and prices (in)stability’. ‘Domains’ are the primary (substantive, not geographical) arenas in which the key development may manifest itself. We started out with the categorization we also used in the HCSS study Contours of Conlict in the 21st Century:xvii Security dimension, related to military conlicts, including the Traditional military dimension (land, sea, air) and the Modern military dimension (space, cyberspace); Political dimension; Economic dimension; and the Human terrain (societal, social, mental, moral, psychological dimension. For example, national identity). But as always, the team remained open for alternative categories as it went through the various texts. When a team member felt s/he had identiied a useful addition, it was proposed as an addition to the shared coding scheme. When others agreed the addition was useful, it was added (sometimes leading to a re‐categorization of previously coded excerpts). In the process, the following additional types of domains were added: Legal (laws, regulations, policies, institutions); Environment; Energy (oil, nuclear, renewable, solar); Global logistics and trade; Technology (cyber); Culture/History; Vital elements (food, water, health); Nuclear weapons as a sub‐domain of the ‘security dimension’; Other security and conlict domain (e.g., terrorism). The results of the coding were then consolidated and classiied by Dedoose in table format, thus generating a global visualization of the indings. Among the various options provided by the program, we tabulated two types of charts: the code application (the number of excerpts of text a particular coding element was applied to) and the code co‐occurrence (which codes co‐occurred in the same text excerpts). While the former shows the relative ‘weight’ of the coding elements, the latter indicates the various cross‐ linkages between them.

Example To illustrate this on the basis of a concrete example, let us take a closer look at one particular text excerpt and at how it was coded in Dedoose: “Retirement ages are already rising in Western economies as people are living longer and funding public pensions proves too much of a burden on iscal positions. There could also be government incentives to try and raise the fertility rate. Russia has recently announced a scheme whereby couples producing three children or more are entitled to a certain amount of land. This again highlights the uncertainty around forecasting this far into the future”.xviii  This entire text fragment is coded as the ‘key development’. The main topic analyzed here is labeled as ‘Demographic outlooks’.  Driver(s): demographic (high‐level driver), with 2 sub‐drivers: (1) aging and (2) fertility rates. Aging is coded because “people are living longer” (see the use of tense = to be + ing: suggests an ongoing trend).  Actor(s): o 1) Which ones? State actor (“government”), non‐state actor (“people”). o 2) Are they adopting a more or less cooperative attitude? This is not shown in this text fragment here.  Region(s): Developed world (“Western economies”), Russia.  Domains(s): Economic (“funding public pensions”).

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Figure 6. Print screen of a coded text fragment in Dedoose

Rules and caveats When applicable, a number of codes were regularly re‐categorized or aggregated (‘merged’ ‐ when their meaning was considered close or similar) to avoid an ever‐expanding scheme and a limited visibility of the results. There is always a tension between a richer analysis with more sub‐codes and a more general overview that would be less complex to read but may miss some important nuances. The team decided to limit the number of sub‐codes to facilitate the selection and labeling of text fragments, and to provide a clearer overview of our research. For example, we discussed whether we should also code the actors according to their nature (public/private, private for‐proit/not‐for‐proit/public), or their functions: economic, cultural, military, etc. For pragmatic reasons (primarily time‐related), we decided to only code their status (state, non state...) and level of cooperation – but to try to include the aforementioned possibilities in the analysis. Time constraints meant the team was unable to manually code all studies. We therefore started by coding studies labeled as ‘General’ in the topic overviews. We then continued with the other topics on the basis of their representation in the overall set (in terms of number of studies). This meant that in the English set, for instance, defense‐ and energy‐related foresight studies received more attention than other ones (see Figure 4). While scanning through large documents, the team used a number of strategies were found to accelerate the coding process. One of them includes Dedoose’s search function, with which a number of keywords can be used: ‘future’, ‘will’, ‘likely’, ‘expected to’, ‘could’, ‘would’, ‘potentially’, ‘security’, ‘threat’, ‘long‐term’, ‘challenges’, ‘safety’, ‘danger’, ‘might’, ‘secure’, ‘probably’, etc., but also queries such as ‘2020’, ‘2030’, or ‘202’ to capture all years between 2020 and 2029. For the French studies, we used words such as ‘future’ or ‘futur’, ‘enjeu’, ‘*rait’ or ‘*ra’ or ‘*raient’, ‘*ront’ (from the French conditional/future tense like ‘pourrait’, ‘serait’ etc.), ‘risque’, etc. For the Chinese foresights, ‘be+ing/ will’ could be found with 会，将; future developments with 未来发展; trends with 趋势; future with 将（要, and being with 正（在）. For Russian sources we used the ‘Futur’ (будущ*), ‘Perspect’ (перспект*), ‘trend’ (тренд), ‘tendenc’ (тенденц) to catch the future‐related segments. It was also possible to scan through by looking at the table of contents, main indings, titles, etc. 9

Each element was coded if and only if the text fragment was explicit about it. For example, the ‘region’ was not coded if the text fragment dealt the planet or the global environment. It is possible that some elements did not appear in or around a text fragment and were therefore not coded. For Chinese foresights, there were relatively few words that described the future situation directly and there were quite a few excerpts that represented recommendations, i.e., indications of what should be done in the future as opposed to what might happen. As a result, there were relatively less excerpts extracted from the Chinese literature. Russian sources, on contrary, were full of foresight in the classical meaning of this word ‐ sources concentrated on describing the future, rather than prescribing various paths to it. A majority of Russian foresights also had a strong methodological section, which may relect the growing interest for quality foresight.

Automatic coding Alongside the manual coding of the identiied security foresight studies, the team also used a few automated tools to textmine these studies.

Leximancer Whereas we made a signiicant effort to code a sizeable amount of studies in the various language domains manually, we also decided to process each set of selected foresights (except for the Chinese selectionxix) with an Australian commercial textmining tool, Leximancer.xx Recent experimental and empirical research into human cognition in general xxi ‐ and into expert knowledge in particularxxii ‐ has revealed a number of discomfortingly widespread human cognitive laws that should give the expert community cause for pause. Even highly educated and trained brains seem disappointingly susceptible to various mental foibles that make them pay attention to certain pieces of information at the expense of others – without regard to their actual or potential relevance. This means that various biases tend to creep ‐ often even subconsciously ‐ into the analyses of individual analysts At the same time, the techniques that the scientiic community uses for quality control (such as the peer review process ‐ in many more complex areas one of the few defensive mechanisms we have against the individual cognitive laws we just described) are also increasingly under attack. In many ields, new techniques and technologies now make it much easier to detect scientiic fraud, plagiarism, unjustiied stovepiping, etc.xxiii And the resulting picture is far from lattering. Finally, there are many rumblings in the ield of philosophy of science that point to a new approach to the canon of scientiic research in which the balance between deductive (from theory‐based hypothesis to data) and inductive (from data to hypotheses) research is being rebalanced in favor of the latter. This is why HCSS is constantly exploring new ways to counterbalance some of these well‐known biases, and new advances in automated textmining tools are an important part of this effort. This year, we made use of an Australian textmining tool – Leximancer. Leximancer in essence builds a semantic network out of the co‐occurrences of terms in certain sets of documents.xxiv The best way to think about these themes is that they are clusters of concepts that tend to travel together through this entire set of texts. In a sense, Leximancer does with words what social network sites such as Facebook or LinkedIn do with people. When people befriend each other, Facebook’s graph draws a line between each of them. As people start connecting to more additional contacts, Facebook starts building up a more dense network of associations between them all. This is what Leximancer does with words. After some initial cleaning of texts (e.g., by identifying sentences; by ignoring frequently used words such as ‘the’ or ‘it’; or by merging various grammatical versions of the same word such as ‘link’, ‘links’, ‘linked’ and ‘linking’ into the ‘concept’ ‘link’, etc.), Leximancer starts drawing lines between words that co‐occur within two sentences. The main underlying

10 intuition is that when an author decides to put his or her ideas in words, he or she is likely to put words that occur in the same ‘line of thought’ close to each other ‐ meaning within one or two sentences of one another. Leximancer uses this intuition to build up an ever richer semantic ‘network’ as it systematically goes ‐ in a number of iterations ‐ through all of these documents sentence by sentence. When it inishes this analysis, it is able ‐ on the basis of these associations between co‐occurring concepts ‐ to identify the main ‘themes’ within a set of documents: those concepts that ‘travel together’ through the various texts. By clustering these terms, it provides human analysts with a number of important ‘themes’ that emerge out of the texts and with a numerical value for the relative ‘weight’ of each theme. Since we only collected articles that deal with future security issues, these themes essentially summarize the main substantive issues that the texts collectively focus on. At the end of its lexical analysis, Leximancer also generates lists of (ranked) concepts with some numerical values relecting their centrality in the texts (not only how often they occur in the text, but also ‐ and even more importantly ‐ how often they co‐occur with other words). This provides us with an ability to zoom in on all concepts that co‐occur within two sentences of the word ‘security’. These are also numerically ranked, allowing our analysts to quickly (and without any preconceptions or other biases) get a sense of what security‐associated concepts tend to be more important throughout the set. Since Leximancer then also allows the user (in this case the analysts that worked on these write‐ups) to drill down to the actual snippets of text in which those two concepts co‐occur, the broader context can then also be used to ‘make sense’ of the purely numerical data. Within the context of this project, we typically had a few iterations of usage of Leximancer for every set of foresights we collected per language domain. In the irst iteration, we ran Leximancer to identify the key themes that emerged automatically from each set (in the sense of concepts that appear to travel together through the entire set of documents) and to rank the individual discovered concepts in terms of their centrality to the texts: both in terms of how often those concepts occur throughout the text, but also in terms of their ‘relevance’. We then zoomed in on the concept ‘security’ itself and looked at the concepts that are most frequently associated with it. Since Leximancer calculates the likelihood of a concept (e.g., security) occurring within a certain block of text (a ‘window’ of two sentences before and after the sentence within which that concept is mentionedxxv), the numerical value of that association measures the likelihood of that concept being mentioned ‘near’ security.

Themes from Metafore Multilingual 2012 and from FP7 Security Projects

Themes What were the key themes to emerge from the 2011‐12 security foresight literature? To answer this question we performed a fully automated analysis of each language domain’s selected literature (with the exception of Chinese foresights as indicated in the Methodology section).

Western studies We used two textmining tools to analyze the picture of main themes emerging from English foresights: Leximancer and Papermachines for Zotero. For the French and German foresights, we only used Leximancer.

English studies Processing the 209 English‐language foresight studies produced the following picture:

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Table 1. Themes and concepts generated by Leximancer for the English‐language foresights This table shows the key themes that were automatically generated by Leximancer. The left column indicates the discovered themes, clusters of concepts that tend to travel together throughout the entire set of documents, in declining order of importance. The second column shows the concepts themselves that are contained in this theme, and the third column the theme’s relative importance in the set of studies, with the most important theme always receiving 100% and the other ones scaled accordingly. The table indicates that the most dominant theme in this year’s security foresight crop can best be labeled ‘resources’. It contains a number of resources (most dominantly energy, but also water and land) as well as concepts related to the (supposedly tightening) market for these resources around which these studies think security challenges may possibly develop in the future. In addition, the themes of ‘increase’ (74%) and ‘use’ (50%) seem related to the resources theme, as they zoom in on respectively tightening markets and the need for more technology to optimize the use of various resources. The second most relevant theme in this year’s (English‐language) security foresights is more dificult to label, but by far the most dominant concepts within this cluster are the concepts of ‘countries’ (with 11593 hits) and ‘change’ (9926 hits). The presence of concepts like ‘climate’, ‘economic’, ‘inancial’ , ‘China’ and ‘social’ suggests that this cluster refers to the many ‐ also security ‐ challenges that countries are likely to face in these different policy areas. This also conirms the inding that countries once again appear in the driver’s seat of the international system ‐ for better or for worse. We furthermore notice that the environmental cluster scores quite highly, as do a number of clusters that deal with governance issues: (international) system management and policy. Of particular interest to us are the concepts that ‘travel together’ with the concept ‘security’ through all of these texts. Whereas the previous picture shows the key themes emerging from the entire full text of all these documents, this picture simply zooms in on the text fragments that contain the word ‘security’

12 and identiies the terms that tend to co‐occur frequently with ‘security’. Figure 7 below shows all concepts whose association with ‘security’ has a relevance ranking of 40% or more.

Figure 7. Word‐like associations with ‘security’ The concept that co‐occurs the most with the word ‘security’ appears the be the word ‘countries’, which conirms our previous inding that states are back in the driver’s seat. The second and third most security‐ relevant concepts appear to be the words ‘energy’ and ‘climate’, indicating that these two themes obtained much attention in the 2012 security foresight debate. If we look further down the list we note the importance of ‘technologies’ (63%), ‘water’ (57%), ‘market’ (57%), ‘economic’ (55%) and ‐ again ‐ ‘resources’ (48%). The inal piece of analysis we extract from the Leximancer tool is the various concepts that are associated with the compound concept ((defense OR defence OR security) AND future). The following igure shows the name‐like entities (countries, organizations, etc.) that are associated with that compound concept:

Figure 8. Name‐like associations with ‘defense’/’security’ and ‘future’ 13

This igure (which shows the number of co‐occurrence on the left y‐axis, and the likelihood of co‐ occurrence on the (differently scaled) right y‐axis) has a number of interesting characteristics:  As soon as we throw the term ‘defense’ into the basket, NATO remains the dominant name‐like entity ‐ even when we just zoom in on those excerpts that also contain the word ‘future’. This suggests that the Western foresight community continues to attribute a key role for NATO also in the future. We also note that the terms ‘EU’ (2%) and ‘European Union’ (3%) score much lower here.  In addition, we observe the re‐emergence of ‘Russia’ (8%) and ‘Russian’ (9%) in the top of this list, suggesting that this set of documents thinks that Russia will continue to play a key role in the future of international security. While we have no quantitative base to compare this score with (yet), we do surmise that Russia’s prominence has once again increased over the past few years with the apparent failure of the US ‘reset’.  The US also figures very prominently in this list ‐ with ‘American’ (8%), ‘America’ (7%) and ‘United States’ (6%) scoring in the top‐6. The next igure shows the regular (non‐name‐like) concepts that tended to co‐occur with both ‘defenc/se/security’ and ‘future’ in the 2012 set of security foresight documents:

Figure 9. Word‐like associations with ‘defense’/’security’ and ‘future’ Some interesting indings from this graph include:  The dominance of US‐based foresight studies in this cluster (the UK/European spelling of the word defence receives a 6% vs 100% for the US spelling): the US appears more likely to associate ‘defense’ with future security than the UK does.  The importance of Allies, which is the second highest scoring ‘association’ (16%) ‐ also the score of ‘cooperation’ (7%) may be of relevance here.  The relevance of traditional military capabilities in this set: ‘military’, ‘weapons’, ‘aircraft’, ‘forces’, ‘capabilities’ all score within the top‐10. The following visual shows the key themes that were identiied by a new textmining tool, Papermachines for Zotero. The word clouds show the concepts that (similar to Leximancer, but then differently visualized ‐ bigger fonts represent more important concepts within the theme) are included in the various themes, which are all color‐coded and shown here in stacked bar‐charts for the different types of sources that were collected: academic sources, governmental ones, international organizations, private sector foresight and inally research institutes.

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Figure 10. Key themes identified by Papermachines for Zotero by publishing organization Below, an overview of how security relates to other concepts sorted by different sources:

Figure 11. Associations of ‘security’ with other concepts by publishing organization

Topic modeling

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Figure 12. Overview of the ten most common ‘topics’ in five runs with Papermachines topic modeling

Caveat In the igure above, it can be seen that the consistency of Papermachines topic modeling output does not seem to be very high. The same settings and set of documents were run ive times. The differences between the runs might be explained by the following things:  As all textmining tools, MALLET, the software package that is used in Papermachines for Zoero to perfom the topic modeling, contains stochastic elements; as a result, about every run is different.  In addition, the values of topics seems do not greatly differ, which makes them more likely to vary in order over different runs. That is also why the same topics re‐occur but in a different order and context in our case. For example, Run 5 (see picture below) shows that the relative (to the whole dataset) share of the topics is not that different.

Figure 13. Topic modeling output for the English‐language Zotero collection using Papermachines

Figure 14. Changes between 2011 and 2012

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Policy, role, political The word cloud for this topic, which did not emerge from all runs, seems to reveal a collection of fairly general concepts related to policy and politics. The are most likely attributable to the fact that much foresight work is done for policy purposes. The topic is also quite evenly distributed across the different sources. But so this topic does not provide much information about possible future security development, as can be seen with the following text excerpt: “Detailed proposals have been adopted in relation to the Connecting Europe Facility and Cohesion Policy, the Common Agriculture Policy and Rural Development, with further proposals close to adoption, i.e. on Horizon 2020”.xxvi

Energy, renewable, electricity ‘Energy’ is a topic that was present in all ive runs. It was in the top four topics of four runs, hence it seems to be an important theme across the foresight literature. This suggests that energy ‐ and particularly ‘renewable’ energy ‐ is thought to play an important role in the future of international security. It is important to note that the ‘energy’ theme particularly emerges from the foresights published by international organizations (e.g., the OECD and the UN). “The results show that the total terminal energy demands in the three kinds of scenarios are respectively 6.095 billion tons of standard coal, 5.236 billion tons of standard coal, and 6.239 billion tons of standard coal in 2050. The study indicates that China has achieved a considerable decrease in its CO2 emissions mainly due to improved energy intensity.In addition, fuel switching and renewable energy penetration also exhibit positive effect to the CO2 decrease.It is a more effective guarantee for achieving the goal of low‐carbon economy to adjust the industrial structure, fully develop clean coal and coal technology, and improve energy eficiency”.xxvii

Research, european, innovation ‘Research’, in combination with ‘innovation’ and mostly also with ‘european’, is a topic that recurred in all ive runs. An explanation for the presence of innovation in research together with european and innovation could be the Europe Union’s Horizon 2020 strategy, set in 2010 and thus generating a number of references In the foresight studies published in the past year, and whose agenda places investments in research and development fueling innovation as a top objective. Further, it is interesting to note that ‘research’ and ‘innovation’ occur together with ‘Europe’, as the US currently remains one of the world’s most important R&D and innovation hotspots.xxviii This topic is relatively equally distributed among the different sources, however it is less present in reports published by research institutes. “From the ield of nanotechnology there are two signals of change: nano‐assemblers and medical nano‐ robots. From the ield of robotics there are also two signals of change: ethical control and swarm robotics. Many of these technologies are related to human brains. One interpretation for this could be that ethical issues may break surface in future. That is the reason why cognition science may be the focus of research in future. The prioritization of signals of change caused a few surprises as well. Beforehand it was assumed that biotechnologies might be one of the most threatening technologies, but iPS cells and bio‐ mimicking were ruled out because of their potentiality for malicious use was so low”.xxix

Capabilities, operations, strategic ‘Capabilities’ as a topic is present in just one run, however, when looking at its association with other concepts in the word cloud reveals that it can be perceived as a military/defence theme across all runs. It is associated with concepts such as ‘operations’, ‘strategic’, ‘military’, ‘forces’, ‘environment’ and ‘air’. This seems to point to future military developments with a focus on the air domain. Publications by private

17 sector organizations and research institutes are the ones emphasizing this topic, whereas and the other sources ‐ particularly the academic literature ‐ hardly focus on it. The indings of one publication suggest that the Air Force should focus on ive critical capabilities over the next two decades: “(1) power projection, (2) freedom of action in air, space, and cyberspace, (3) global situational awareness, Its indings suggest the Air Force should focus on ive critical capabilities over the next two decades: (1) power projection, (2) freedom of action in air, space, and cyberspace, (3) global situational awareness (4) air diplomacy, and (5) military support to civil authorities (MSCA)”. There is also an underlying theme that runs throughout the study. Success—for the Air Force—will depend on “the service’s ability to integrate the application of American power through the air, space, and cyber domains. No longer is it possible to think or act principally in a single domain”.xxx

Global, world, economic ‘Global’, in combination with ‘world’ and ‘economic’, is present in all ive runs and always within the top ive topics. In the word cloud, it is most closely associated with ‘population’, ‘countries’, ‘growth’, ‘people’, amongst others. The emerging seems could be the globalization of the world economy fueled by population growth. The topic is evenly distributed across the different types of publishers. “The next 40 years are likely to see the further consolidation of the major companies in the global food sector but also the emergence of new and powerful enterprises from emerging economies who will have a major impact not only on the structure of the food systems in the countries from which they emerge, but also the global food system in general. The Chinese and Indian markets, for example, represent such a signiicant consumption base that national retail companies will be able to use it for signiicant expansion into new markets. These companies are also likely to have the buying power to acquire the brands and retail networks needed for entry into more established markets”.xxxi

Technology, industry, systems The topic grouping ‘technology’, ‘industry’ and ‘systems’ did not make the top ten of the other four runs and will therefore not be analyzed.

Oil, energy, demand ‘Oil’, ‘energy’ and ‘demand’ did not occur together in other runs. ‘Energy’ was present in all ive runs but more often in relation to ‘renewables’ ‐ which is already covered in an aforementioned topic.

Internet, information, networks ‘Internet’, in combination with ‘information’ occurs in three other runs. As a result, it can be seen as a signiicant topic within our sample of English foresight literature. It is associated with concepts such as ‘networks’, ‘security’, ‘attacks’, ‘states’, ‘cyber’ and ‘computer’. Hence, it can be associated with the cyber domain. The topic is evenly distributed among sources except for publishing organizations from the private sector, whose foresights mention it less. “This future promises not just greater prosperity and more reliable networks, but enhanced international security and a more sustainable peace. In it, states act as responsible parties in cyberspace—whether coniguring networks in ways that will spare others disruption, or inhibiting criminals from using the Internet to operate from safe havens. States know that networked infrastructure must be protected, and they take measures to secure it from disruption and sabotage. They continue to collaborate bilater‐ally, multilaterally, and internationally to bring more of the world into the information age and into the consensus of states that seek to preserve the Internet and its core characteristics”.xxxii

East, power, regional This topic did not make the top ten of the other four runs and will therefore not be analyzed.

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Food, agriculture, climate ‘Food’ as a topic emerged from three other runs. It is associated with concepts such as ‘agriculture’, ‘climate’, ‘production’, ‘security’, ‘land’ and ‘sustainable’. It is mostly present in the literature published by academic and international organizations, yet hardly in the foresights of private sector and research institutes. “The results suggest three conclusions: (i) there are a number of regions where climate change poses a signiicant threat for food production [by 2050]; (ii) the global balance of food production potential for rain‐fed cereal production of current cultivated land might slightly improve in the short term [between 2010 and 2020]; effective agronomic adaptation by farmers to a changing climate and the actual strength of the so‐called CO2 fertilization effect on crop yields will be decisive . . . and (iii) beyond 2050, negative impacts of warming dominate and cause a rapid decrease of the crop production potential in most regions and for the global aggregate”.xxxiii

Russian studies

Table 2. Themes and concepts generated by Leximancer for the Russian foresights The Russian set of 2012 foresight studies displays ‐ quite typically ‐ a very systemic approach to the future of international security: a cluster of concepts that can best be characterized as ‘systemic governance’ (‘system’, ‘process’, ‘level’, ‘management’, ‘technologies’, etc.) is by far the dominant theme in the Russian set. Also here, states appear to be very much in the driver’s seat: the second most important cluster has the word ‘states’ as the leading concept and also contains terms such as policy, relations, national, spheres, interests, solutions, etc; and the fourth most important cluster is ‘countries’, including words like economic and economy, security, foreign. The set also appears to be quite ‘applied’: rather than merely spelling out the future security issues, they appear to pay much attention to what should be done about it, with themes such as ‘development’ (with concepts such as ‘creation’, ‘realization’, etc.) and ‘political’ scoring in the top‐5 themes.

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Figure 15. Key concepts co‐appearing with ‘security’ across Russian foresights Figure 15 above shows the 15 key concepts that co‐appear with the concept ‘security’ throughout the set of Russian foresight studies that were selected this year (the orange line represents the likelihood that a term co‐occurs with security; the blue bars represent the times these concepts occur in general): ● We observe a strong ‘realist’ focus here, with terms such as ‘ensuring’ (as in the term ‘ensuring national security’ ‐ 40%), ‘national’ (25%), ‘interests’ (16%), ‘influence’ (16%) and ‘states’ (14%, but note that the term ‘states’ occurs 310 times in the entire set). ● The focus also appears to be more ‘economic’ (21%) and political (with ‘policy’ co‐occurring 13% and ‘political’ 7%) than military (not represented at all). Our manual coding of Russian foresights also revealed a focus on several themes – as exempliied in the ‘key developments’ we deined in Dedoose. Here, the most frequently coded text fragments refer to hegemonies and shifts in power balance. The idea of responsible leadership emerges from this perspective on a new power balance. New tensions, conlicts or wars (similarly to the theme evolution of conlicts identiied based on coding results for the Western domain) and multipolarity are other topics of importance. Interestingly, science, technology and innovation forms a key focus across Rusian foresights, followed by economic trends. Lastly, we also note an institutional perspective, with the transformation of national/internal structures, which comes close to the key concepts ‘system’ or ‘governance’ identiied in the automated analysis. With this theme, Russian authors refer to topics such as decentralization, democratization, revolutions, regionalism and integration. Although energy and resources or food security are not among the most important key developments identiied, demographics (including migrations) are afforded a relatively important role.

Chinese studies Looking at the key developments that have been coded manually (as Chinese studies could not be textmined), it appears that Chinese foresights strongly focus on the idea that more cooperation is important. It is a central theme, followed by the rising awareness of changes in the general strategic environment, and the rise of new and/or major powers. (Economic) development is also a recurring theme. Peaceful developments and the peaceful rise of new powers, as well as ‘responsible leadership’ relect the views of China on its own growing inluence. Such peaceful dimensions emerge less from the Western literature, which rather tends to assess the rise of China as a potential threat. Sino‐US relations and Sino‐Japanese relations are major issues on the Chinese government’s diplomatic agenda. The central role that the US and Japan play with respect to the Taiwan issue can serve as one explanation. The territorial disputes in the South China Sea are also a priority of China’s foreign policy. The Chinese studies claim that China intends to solve these problems by negotiating and consulting

20 peacefully. This is relected by the frequent use of the term ‘peaceful developments’ across the selected Chinese literature and the governmental white papers. The word ‘共 识’ (Gongshi, ‘consensus’) appears very often in China’s oficial documents, further illustrating the country’s attachment to ‘peaceful developments’ and corroborating the impression that cooperation is a key theme for tomorrow’s security environment in Chinese views. For example, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Liu Weimin, China is committed to friendly cooperation with neighboring nations. In addition, it is emphasized that Sino‐African relations have been friendly for more than half a century. In December 2010, China launched the new policy of ‘Sino‐African Economic and Trade Cooperation’ aiming at promoting balanced development of trade, expanding mutual investment ields, etc. This stands as another proof of China’s will to cooperate. China is making considerable efforts to improve its global image and eliminate the idea that China’s rise is unpeaceful and negatively impacts foreign relations.

Turkish studies The most dominant theme in this year’s security foresight selection is ‘ülke’ (81%), which means ‘country’ ‐ and highlights again the signiicant role of state actors in this language domain. The theme ‘Iran’ (13%) also stands out and has a particularly dominant place in a considerable amount of Turkish foresights. This suggests that Iran is a leading, strategic igure in shaping the future of the region. Across Turkish foresights, security is closely linked to nations, allies and/or neighbors. ‘Ulusal’ (i.e., ‘national’, 42%) is an important word‐like concept associated with ‘security’ (‘güvenlik’). Most demographic, economic, environmental domains in the foresights seem to be associated with Turkey’s future challenges. ‘Region’ is another concept that emerges rather prominently (overall list of concepts: 31%; list of concepts associated with security: 18%: ‘bölge’ and 11%: ‘bölgesel’), suggesting a focus on regional security. Regarding this key word, the overall list of name‐like concepts are the most revealing as we analyze the textmining results. Turkey itself (‘Türkiye’, 26%, ‘Türkiye’nin’, 19% and ‘Türkiye’de’, 8%) is the main focus across all Turkish foresights, followed by the US (‘ABD’, 18%) as Turkey’s close security ally, Russia (‘Rusya’, 14 %), the EU (13%), and Iran (12%). Russia seems to be a recurring player in most of the events that Turkey is expected be involved, in particular with respect to energy security issues. Turkish views emphasize the EU as remaining a solid partner for Turkey. Here again, the relative predominance of Iran with respect to future security challenges is striking. Our manual coding of Turkish foresights unveils an overall focus on several themes – as exempliied in the ‘key developments’ we deined in Dedoose. Here, the results allow to complete the picture provided by the automated analysis. Rather than focusing on actors or major security igures, the coding results seem to emphasize the main issues they may face in the future. In particular, improving energy security is one of Turkish authors’ biggest concerns. More cooperation is the second most important type of key development. Sub‐key developments indicate that cooperation should be an objective in energy and environmental matters (with the EU) and also implies a form of interdependence (with respect to the relations with Russia). It is also envisaged in the military domain, with a more multinational defense. NATO’s new role and new inluence is another key theme, relecting the results of the automated analysis: the Alliance seems to be afforded a particular role in tomorrow’s security environment. Further, the transformation of the Arab world and the future effects of climate change are important topics as well.

Cross‐language comparison In line with the Western language domains, the nation‐state ‐ as a theme emerging from textmining results ‐ appears to be very much in the driver’s seat in Russian and Turkish views. Important clusters include words such as ‘national’, ‘states’ and ‘policy’, neighboring countries (China for English studies, the

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US for Turkey and Russia, or Iran for Turkey) or regional actors (the EU, NATO). The difference may lie in the meaning and dimension of security: while being rather economic in Russian views and socio‐ economic in German and French views (with concepts such as ‘skills’), or strikingly political in the Chinese perspective (e.g., cooperation, consensus, peace, foreign relations), the dimension mostly emanating from Turkish foresights can be associated with defense and military affairs. As revealed by the results generated from Papermachines and Leximancer, English foresights focus on economic themes (as in French and Russian foresights most particularly); political dimensions; the EU and development (as in German and French foresights); energy and resources (including food, as for French results); ‘capabilities’; NATO (unlike French, Chinese and Russian foresights); and ‘countries’ ‐ i.e., the national dimension which emerges from practically all other language domains. Most of these results also come close to the other Western languages investigated as well ‐ to a certain extent. Although ‘Capabilities’ seems to point towards the development of skills, the term seems to mostly refer to military means and operations ensuring security in the future. This element, as well as the focus on the US, comes closer to the Turkish focus than to the German, French and even Russian and Chinese respective pictures. In addition, research and innovation are much more visible than among French or German studies. Themes that are associated with technology, the Internet and connectivity are however much less emphasized overall, as seen with the results processed for the other language domains.

Themes from Selected EU FP7‐Security‐Funded Studies To demonstrate how the indings of the Futurebase in any policy domain could be regularly compared to the research prioirities in that same domain, the HCSS team textmined a number of available FP‐7 studies with the same tools and techniques that were used for the broader foresight of 2011‐2012. The studies that were analyzed for FP7 were all project reports that could be retrieved from the Cordis databasexxxiv The search retrieved the following 43 projects, which together produced 52 documents. Project

2013‐02‐01 Final Report ‐ CBRNEMAP (Road‐mapping study of CBRNE demonstrator) 14230 100 report Project

2013‐02‐01 Periodic Report ‐ DETECTER (Detection Technologies, Terrorism, Ethics and Human Rights) 14239 100 report Project

2013‐02‐01 Periodic Report ‐ DESURBS (Designing safer urban spaces) 14258 100 report Project

2013‐01‐18 Periodic Report ‐ NMFRDISASTER (Identifying the needs of medical first responder in disasters) 14323 100 report Project

2013‐01‐18 Final Report ‐ NMFRDISASTER (Identifying the needs of medical first responder in disasters) 14373 100 report Periodic Report ‐ BIO‐PROTECT (Ionisation‐based detector of airborne bio‐agents, viruses and toxins Project 2013‐01‐08 14086 100

for fast‐alert and identification) report Final Report ‐ SECURECHAINS (Integration of security technology supply chains and identification ofProject 2013‐01‐08 14093 100

weaknesses and untapped potential) report Periodic Report 2 ‐ MULTIBIODOSE (Multi‐disciplinary biodosimetric tools to manage high scaleProject 2013‐01‐08 14120 100

radiological casualties) report Periodic Report ‐ DITSEF (Digital and Innovative Technologies for Security and Efficiency of FirstProject 2013‐01‐08 14140 100

Responders operation) report Periodic Report ‐ HELP (Enhanced Communications in Emergencies by Creating and ExploitingProject 2013‐01‐08 14162 100

Synergies in Composite Radio Systems) report Project

2013‐01‐08 Periodic Report ‐ A4A (Alert for All) 14163 100 report Periodic Report ‐ MULTISENSE CHIP (The lab‐free CBRN detection device for the identification of Project 2012‐12‐12 14031 100

biological pathogens on nucleic acid and immunological level…) report Periodic Report ‐ OPARUS (Open Architecture for UAV‐based Surveillance System (topic: SEC‐Project 2012‐12‐12 14078 100

2009.3.4.1 Continuity, coverage, performances, secure datalink)) report Project

2012‐10‐31 Periodic Report ‐ COCAE (Cooperation across Europe for Cd(Zn)Te based Security Instruments) 13906 100 report Periodic Report ‐ SUBITO (Surveillance of Unattended Baggage and the Identification and Tracking ofProject 2012‐10‐31 13907 100

the Owner) report

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Project

2012‐10‐31 Periodic Report ‐ PREVAIL (Precursors of explosives: Additives to inhibit their use including liquids) 13963 100 report Project

2012‐10‐12 Periodic Report ‐ LOTUS (Localisation of Threat Substances in Urban Society) 10729 100 report Project

2012‐09‐20 Periodic Report ‐ SEABILLA (Sea border surveillance) 13805 100 report Periodic Report ‐ OSMOSIS (Overcoming Security Market Obstacles for SMEs Involvement in the Project 2012‐07‐27 13528 100

technological Supply chain) report Project

2012‐07‐27 Periodic Report 2 ‐ COPE (Common Operational Picture Exploitation) 13564 100 report Periodic Report ‐ ISTIMES (Integrated system for transport infrastructures surveillance andProject 2012‐07‐27 13594 100

monitoring by electromagnetic sensing) report Periodic Report ‐ BESECU (Human behaviour in crisis situations: A cross cultural investigation to tailorProject 2012‐07‐23 13778 100

security‐related communication) report Periodic Report ‐ PROTECTRAIL (The railway‐industry partnership for integrated security of rail Project 2012‐07‐23 13404 100

transport) report Project

2012‐07‐23 Final Report ‐ ESC (European security challenge) 13429 100 report Project

2012‐06‐11 Periodic Report ‐ BOOSTER (Bio‐dosimetric tools for triage to responders) 13204 100 report Final Report ‐ LOGSEC (Development of a strategic roadmap towards a large scale demonstrationProject 2012‐06‐11 13219 100

project in European logistics and supply chain security) report Periodic Report ‐ CRISIS (Critical incident management training system using an interactive simulation Project 2012‐06‐11 13203 100

environment) report Periodic Report 2 ‐ ODYSSEY (Strategic Pan‐European Ballistics Intelligence Platform for CombatingProject 2012‐06‐11 13268 100

Organised Crime and Terrorism) report Project

2012‐04‐12 Periodic Report ‐ TALOS (Transportable autonomous patrol for land border surveillance) 10314 100 report Periodic Report 1 ‐ SAFE‐COMMS (Counter‐terrorism crisis communications strategies for recovery Project 2012‐04‐12 10760 100

and continuity) report Project

2012‐04‐12 Periodic Report ‐ DETECTER (Detection technologies, terrorism, ethics and human rights) 10819 100 report Project

2012‐04‐12 Periodic Report ‐ COCAE (Cooperation across Europe for Cd(Zn)Te based security instruments) 10693 100 report Project

2012‐04‐12 Final Report ‐ STRAW (Security technology active watch) 10313 100 report Project

2012‐04‐12 Periodic Report ‐ NI2S3 (NET information integration services for security systems) 10411 100 report Periodic Report ‐ EU‐SEC II (Coordinating national research programmes and policies on security at Project 2012‐04‐12 10315 100

major events in Europe) report Periodic Report ‐ SUBITO (Surveillance of unattended baggage and the identification and tracking ofProject 2011‐09‐21 11684 100

the owner) report Project

2011‐04‐14 Periodic Report 2 ‐ FESTOS (Foresight of evolving security threats posed by emerging technologies) 13886 100 report Periodic Report ‐ RAPTOR (Rapid deployable, gas generator assisted inflatable mobile security kits forProject 2011‐04‐14 13889 100

ballistic protection of European civilians against crime and terrorist attacks) report Project

2011‐03‐29 Periodic Report ‐ STRAW (Security technology active watch) 10802 100 report Project

2011‐01‐17 Periodic Report ‐ INFRA (Innovative and novel first responders applications) 10616 100 report

Periodic Report 1 ‐ INDECT (Intelligent information system supporting observation, searching andProject 2011‐01‐17 10692 100

detection for security of citizens in urban environment) report Periodic Report ‐ BESECU (Human behaviour in crisis situations: A cross cultural investigation to tailor Project 2011‐01‐17 10670 100

security‐related communication) report Project

2011‐01‐17 Periodic Report ‐ SECURENV (Assessment of environmental accidents from a security perspective) 10691 100 report

These 52 documents were processed with the same textmining tool that was used for the foresight studies (Leximancer). We present here some of the main results of the processing, in line with the reporting on the foresight studies: the key themes, the key concepts that are contained in the studies and the key associations with the concept ‘security’.

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We want to emphasize here that this comparison is substantively unfair, as the international foresight studies that were analyzed were mostly policy analyses, whereas the research documents are reports from research reports – often even just the inal project summaries. This comparison should therefore be read with considerable caution as it is only intended as a proof of concept for how comparing FP7 projects with foreight studies could be achieved.

Themes

development, results, requirements, objectives, provided, achieved, areas, integration, potential, capabilities, tools, applications, current, possible, surveillance, development tasks, real, view, generated, monitoring, considered, overall, step, wide, applied, context, associated, goal 100% project, technologies, security, needs, communication, European, aim, knowledge, project products, established, awareness, large, experience, access, sharing, cooperation 76% system, detection, SUBITO, threat, operational, demonstration, scenarios, baggage, system functions, cameras, defined, track, architecture, unattended, sensors, complex, video, devices 73% identify, user, support, level, field, ensure, structure, understanding, take, common, identify target, end‐users, basis, thus, particular, transport, previous 61% information, different, responders, during, human, issues, final, protection, crisis, information ethical, better, natural, factors, standards, terrorist, period, team 58% activity, involved, Security, partners, supply, organisations, industrial, Smes, activity consortium, services, promote, companies, contribute, opportunities, facilitate, Securechains, exchange, STSC 57% performance, improve, design, process, data, analysis, individual, people, allow, performance approach, control, additional, able, components, validation 55% work, including, package, management, effective, impact, address, building, focus, work framework, risk, privacy, place, methodology, investigated 53% main, network, stakeholders, related, key, create, available, plan, initiatives, actions, main proposed, market, R&d, deliver, interest 47% based, assessment, carried, study, measures, case, enabling, produced, decision, based several, critical, aspects, limited 46% following, specific, solutions, future, existing, infrastructure, further, exploitation, following etc., collection, successfully, directly, technical 38% research, order, events, relevant, meet, groups, important, major, Eu, international, research Europe, coordination 38% use use, situations, time, model, behaviour, types, simulation, social 34% implemented, environment, increase, identification, expected, concept, various, implemented terms 27% response response, emergency, disaster, training, report, medical, legal 22% algorithm algorithm, images, Figure, module, abandoned, alarms, robust 17% test test, scene, evaluation, person 17% public public, organizations, participation, rights, workshops, countries 17% dissemination dissemination, programmes, presented, national 12% methods methods, detailed, techniques 12% document document, title, subject 8% described described 3% PPDR PPDR 2% CRISIS CRISIS 1% Description Description 1% Table Table 0% officers officers 0% The themes of the processed FP7‐reports show a stark contrast with the themes that emerged from the foresight studies. Not surprisingly, the FP7 themes are far more related to internal security that to external security. There is a much clearer focus on methods, tools and technologies than on substantive themes (be they of a functional – like terrorism, or border security – or geographical – like failed states or concrete conlict zones – nature). It can even be called striking that not a single substantive theme emerged from these documents, and ot even a substantive word within the themes (with the exception of something like ‘response’

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Top Concepts

Named entities If we look at the top‐25 named entities that are extracted from this set, we notice that they are exclusively inward‐looking: FP7‐Security related project acronyms, Europe, SMEs. R&D, etc. There is not a single non‐European or non‐EU related concept that emerges from this analysis. Concept Count Relevance_percentage SUBITO 181 30 Description 31 5 Security 84 14 PPDR 28 5 Figure 83 14 Research 25 4 European 81 14 PTZ 25 4 Smes 62 10 Work 24 4 Eu 51 9 Table 24 4 R&d 48 8 CRISIS 22 4 Securechains 44 7OSMOSIS203 Europe 43 7 Furthermore 20 3 PROJECT 43 7 INDECT 20 3 WP 39 7 UK 19 3 Ref 34 6Fr173 STSC 31 5

Concepts If we turn then to the top‐25 regular concepts, we again notice the overwhelming dominance of project‐ technical terms as opposed to more substantive ones Concept Count Relevance_percentage project 595 100 objectives 182 31 use 432 73 provided 178 30 information 408 69 activity 165 28 system 380 64 performance 154 26 development 371 62 identify 147 25 technologies 362 61 including 145 24 security 314 53 main 143 24 research 254 43 operational 142 24 results 225 38 achieved 142 24 detection 218 37 different 139 23 requirements 206 35 following 138 23 work 201 34 user 137 23 threat 192 32

Top Associations with Security In order to try to zoom in on the non‐project‐technical content of the project reports, we also took a look at all the concepts that tended to co‐occur with the word ‘security’.

Named Entities With respect to named entities, we are again struck by the exclusively Euro‐ and EU‐centric focus of these associations. No other parts of the world are mentioned and even within the EU, only the UK appears in the top‐25 (France is in 27th position).

RelatedConcept Count "Likelihood Percent" Fp7 9 64 Due 3 30 European 44 54 Furthermore 5 25 Security 44 52 Integration 2 25 Securechains 23 52 PPDR 6 21 Smes 30 48 UK 4 21 Expected 7 47 PROJECT 9 21 STSC 13 42 RESULTS 3 20 Europe 18 42 INDECT 4 20 OSMOSIS 8 40 Description 6 19 R&d 18 38 Research 4 16

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Eu 18 35 Work 3 12 Summary 5 33 SUBITO 15 8 Ed 4 31

Concepts The only substantive concepts that we ind back in any of these analyses are with the regular concepts that are associated with the word ‘security’. And here the indings are quite surprising too. Whereas crime might have been expected (the concept of ‘crime’ has a 60% likelihood of co‐occuring with the concept ‘security’), the dominance of rail‐ (or railway‐) security in this list is quite striking. The focus on opportunities (as opposed to risks or threats) can be seen as another aspects that differentiates these EU‐ projects from the overall more threat‐focused foresight literature (although we do not that risk and threat were present in the overall themes).

RelatedConcept Count "Likelihood Percent" rail 8 89 private 10 53 joint 16 76 civil 12 52 crime 16 70 global 13 52 railway 10 67 pose 25 51 weak 14 64 speed 5 50 creation 10 62 industrial 33 49 domain 13 62 sector 13 46 opportunities 24 62 resilience 6 46 cooperation 19 58 wide 17 46 market 24 57 policy 16 46 stakeholders 46 57 valuable 5 45 citizens 17 57 trade 9 45 supply 40 56

i R. Popper and European Foresight Monitoring Network, “Mapping Foresight: Revealing How Europe and Other World Regions Navigate into the Future,” Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission (2009): 126. ii Despite obvious financial-economic strictures, the new ‘Horizon 2020’ Framework Programme for Research and Innovation wields an €80 billion budget for the period 2014-2020. iii But note the caveats by Dr Ray Pawson, Evidence-Based Policy: A Realist Perspective (SAGE, 2006). iv Philip Davies, “Is Evidence-Based Government Possible?” (presented at the 4th Annual Campbell Collaboration Colloquium, Washington, DC, February 19, 2004), 3, http://www.ebpdn.org/resource/resource.php?id=645. v Gary Banks, “Evidence-Based Policy-Making: What Is It? How Do We Get It?,” February 4, 2009, http://www.pc.gov.au/speeches/cs20090204. vi An interesting analogy here can be found in the ways in which some Indian tribes in the Andean think of time in spatial terms. In most Western languages, we think of the past as being ‘behind’ us and the future as being ‘in front of’ us. This suggests that to most Western audiences, time is thought of a straight arrow that comes from behind us, runs through our body and then continues in a forward motion away from us. In these Amerindian languages, however, the arrow moves in the opposite direction: people point to their back when they talk about the future, and gesture ahead when talking about the past. So to them, “present is metaphorically located immediately at the front of the speaker’s body, whereas the past is the space farther in front of the speaker.” One interpretation for this difference is that we can only ‘see’ (i.e. it is in front of us) the present and the past, whereas we can not see (i.e. are turned with our back towards) the future. Núñez, Rafael E., and Eve Sweetser. “With the Future Behind Them: Convergent Evidence From Aymara Language and Gesture in the Crosslinguistic Comparison of Spatial Construals of Time.” Cognitive Science 30, no. 3 (2006): 401–450. See also De Jouvenel’s comments on Cicero’s distinction (presumably from Cicero’s De divinatione) between ‘facta’ and ‘futura’ Bertrand De Jouvenel, Futuribles, P-3045 (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1965), http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3045.pdf.

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vii Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton University Press, 2005); Dan Gardner, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better, First Edition (Dutton Adult, 2011). See also Abhijit V. Banerjee, “A Simple Model of Herd Behavior,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, no. 3 (1992): 797, doi:Article; Roy Batchelor, “Accuracy Versus Profitability,” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting no. 21 (April 2011): 10–15; George B. Henry, “Wall Street Economists: Are They Worth Their Salt?,” Business Economics 24, no. 4 (October 1989): 44+; Philip Hans Franses, Michael McAleer, and Rianne Legerstee, “Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments,” Journal of Economic Surveys (September 2012): no–no, doi:10.1111/joes.12000; H.O. Stekler, “The Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting: Understanding the Forecasting Process,” International Journal of Forecasting 23, no. 2 (April 2007): 237–248, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.002; Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser, “Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An Empirical Comparison for the G7,” International Journal of Forecasting 27, no. 2 (April 2011): 452–465, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.016; Roy Batchelor, “Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts,” International Journal of Forecasting 23, no. 2 (April 2007): 189–203, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.004; Owen Lamont, Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters, Working Paper (National Bureau of Economic Research, October 1995), http://www.nber.org/papers/w5284. viii To give some examples of these pathologies: presentism and recentism; lack of imagination; herd mentality; overconfidence in datasets; underestimating ‘framing’ effects; reductionism and underappreciating systems effects; dubious timing; stovepiping; systematic normative bias (e.g. in some areas in favor of gloom and doom; in others in favor of unbridled optimism); analytical hybris; ‘Masking’ uncertainty; etc. Stephan De Spiegeleire et al., STRONG in the 21st Century. Strategic Orientation and Navigation Under Deep Uncertainty (The Hague: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, 2010). ix We were inspired in some of this work by French futurist Bertrand De Jouvenel’s concept of ‘futuribles’ - . Bertrand de Jouvenel, L’art de la conjecture (Éditions du Rocher, 1964). See also De Jouvenel, Futuribles; P. Malaskai and I. Virtanenii, “Theory of Futuribles” (2005); P. Malaska and I. Virtanen, “Theory of Futuribles and Historibles,” Futura 28, no. 1 (2009). x For an introduction to these insights, see Melanie Mitchell, Complexity: A Guided Tour (Oxford University Press, USA, 2009); Scott E. Page, Diversity and Complexity (Princeton University Press, 2011). xi And – according to some scholars – even fundamentally defying (a priori) comprehension. xii Richard H Thaler and Cass R Sunstein, Nudge : Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New York: Penguin Books, 2009). xiii Stephan De Spiegeleire et al., De Toekomst in Alle Staten. HCSS Strategic Monitor 2013. [The Future in All Its States], vol. 20, HCSS Report (The Hague: HCSS, 2013). xiv Commission of the European Communities, “Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Horizon 2020 - The Framework Programme for Research and Innovation” (Commission of the European Communities, 2011), 5, http://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/pdf/proposals/communication_from_the_commission_- _horizon_2020_-_the_framework_programme_for_research_and_innovation.pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none. xv See http://www.hcss.nl/products‐and‐services/. xvi De Spiegeleire et al., De Toekomst in Alle Staten. HCSS Strategic Monitor 2013. [The Future in All Its States]; Stephan De Spiegeleire, Tim Sweijs, and Tong Zhao, Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century (The Hague: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), March 2011), The Hague, http://www.hcss.nl/reports/contours-of- conflict-in-the-21st-century/17/. xvii Stephan De Spiegeleire, Tim Sweijs, and Tong Zhao, Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century. xviii Karen Ward, The World in 2050 (HSBC, January 2011), http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCMQFjAA&url=ht tp%3A%2F%2Fwww.research.hsbc.com%2Fmidas%2FRes%2FRDV%3Fp%3Dpdf%26key%3Dej73gSSJVj%26n%3 D282364.PDF&ei=DguJUKL1KOaY1AXf34C4BQ&usg=AFQjCNE8Ysfn8aGLXr9sCHbVuKIy2R07eg. xix HCSS is working on including a Chinese textmining tool into its Meta‐Fore tool suite, but was not able to use it this year yet. The results from the Chinese set in this analysis are therefore only based on the manual coding effort. 27

xx “Leximancer,” n.d., https://www.leximancer.com; A. E. Smith, “Machine Mapping of Document Collections: The Leximancer System,” in Proceedings of the Fifth Australasian Document Computing Symposium, 2000, 39– 43; A. E. Smith, “Automatic Extraction of Semantic Networks from Text Using Leximancer,” in Proceedings of the 2003 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics on Human Language Technology: Demonstrations, vol. 4, 2003, 23–24; A. E. Smith and M. S. Humphreys, “Evaluation of Unsupervised Semantic Mapping of Natural Language with Leximancer Concept Mapping,” Behavior Research Methods 38, no. 2 (2006): 262–279. xxiDaniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (Penguin Books, 2012); Jonathan Baron, Thinking and Deciding (Cambridge University Press, 2008). xxii See footnote vii. xxiii Stroebe Wolfgang, Tom Postmes, and Russell Spears, “Scientific Misconduct and the Myth of Self- Correction in Science,” Perspectives on Psychological Science 7, no. 6 (November 1, 2012): 670–688; Jha Alok, “False Positives: Fraud and Misconduct Are Threatening Scientific Research,” The Guardian, September 13, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/sep/13/scientific-research-fraud-bad-practice. xxiv We want to emphasize that Leximancer does NOT use any pre‐defined ontologies or taxonomies in building this semantic network (e.g., things like “we ‘KNOW’ that security is mostly ‘military’, and therefore we link ‘security’ automatically to that ‘known’ association”). Whereas taxonomies can certainly be useful for certain purposes, we intentionally opted for a fully ‘open’ approach like Leximancer’s (without any preconceived notions). xxv We used the default value for this parameter, which is two sentences. So Leximancer in this case looks for all concepts that occur within two sentences (either before or after) of the concept ‘security’. xxvi European Commission, PROGRESS REPORT ON THE EUROPE 2020 STRATEGY, November 23, 2011, http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/president/news/documents/pdf/annex_1_en.pdf. xxvii Z. Tao, L. Zhao, and Z. Changxin, “Research on the Prospects of Low-carbon Economic Development in China Based on LEAP Model,” Energy Procedia 5 (2011): 695–699. xxviii John Kao, “Tapping the World’s Innovation Hotspots,” Harvard Business Review (March 2009), http://hbr.org/hbr-main/resources/pdfs/comm/fmglobal/tapping-worlds-innovation-hotspots.pdf. xxix Burkhard Auffermann and Liisa Luoto, Foresight of Evolving Security Threats Posed by Emerging Technologies: WP3: Emerging Threats, August 2011. xxx J.A. Shaud and A.B. Lowther, Air Force Strategic Vision for 2020-2030, 2011, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi- bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA537570. xxxi UK Government Office for Science, Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures - Synthesis Report C3: State of Play and Trends: Governance and Globalisation (London, 2011), http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/food-and-farming/synthesis/11-623-c3-state-of-play-trends- governance-globalisation.pdf. xxxii W. Halal and M. Marien, “Global Megacrisis: A Survey of Four Scenarios on a Pessimism-optimism Axis,” Journal of Futures Studies 16, no. 2 (2011): 65–84. xxxiii J. C. Rice and S. M. Garcia, “Fisheries, Food Security, Climate Change, and Biodiversity: Characteristics of the Sector and Perspectives on Emerging Issues,” ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal Du Conseil 68, no. 6 (2011): 1343–1353. xxxiv The European Union’s Community Research and Development Information Service (Cordis) is an information space that is managed by the EU’s Publications Office and is devoted to European research and development (R&D) activities and technology transfer. The repository stores information about research and development (R&D) projects, financed wholly or partly from the European Union budget. The only search parameters that was used was the programme acronym: FP7-Security. That yielded 64 results (typically periodic or final reports),

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Степанова, Е. “Глобальные тенденции в области одностороннего насилия против гражданского населения.” Демоскоп Weekly no. 459–460. Accessed November 23, 2012. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2011/0459/analit05.php. Сыроежкин, К. Центральная Азия сегодня: вызовы и угрозы. Алматы: КИСИ при Президенте РК, 2011. http://www.kisi.kz/img/docs/5702.pdf. Темирбулатов, А. “Геополитические аспекты формирования системы региональнои безопасности Закавказья.” Исторические, философские, политические и юридические науки, культурология и искусствоведение. Вопросы теории и практики, 2011. Фюкс, Р., Р. Штенблок, and К. Пютц. “Солидарность и мощь: размышления о будущем ЕС.” Московскии офис Фонда имени Генриха Бёлля, 2012. http://www.ru.boell.org/downloads/Solidaritaet_und_Staerke_RU.pdf. Шишков, В. “Неоимперские центры в политическои проектности XXI века.” Грамота no. 5 (19) (2012): 223–227. “中国发布《钓鱼岛是中国固有领土》白皮书.pdf.” The State Coucil Information Ofice of the People’s Republic of China, n.d. 俞新天. “中国主权理论的发展与扩大台湾国际空间的思考.” Think Tank. 上海问题研究院, 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000503. 刘中民中民. “中东变局与中国外交的几个基本问题.” Chinese Digital Library. 知网空间 CNKI, 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL‐GJGC201201002.htm. 刘友发. “未来 10 年中国周边经济安全形势及对策思考.” Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究所, July 23, 2012. http://210.72.21.12:8008/servlet/PagePreviewServlet?type=1&articleid=5182521&nodeid =521565&siteid=453. 刘友法. “未来 10 年中国周边经济安全形势及对策思考.” 国际问题研究 no. 4 (20120903): 80–89. 吕耀东. “深化同盟机制:日美双边互动的战略愿景.” Research Institute. 中国社会科学院日本研究所, July 5, 2012. http://ijs.cass.cn/2012/0705/627.html. 吴寄南. “中日关系进入新的历史转型期——兼论两国增强战略互信的路径选择.” Think Tank. 上海 问题研究院, 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000519. 张明德. “拉美新兴大国的崛起及面临的挑战.” Think Tank. 上海问题研究院, 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000529. 张春. “中非关系：应对国际对非合作的压力和挑战.” Think Tank. 上海问题研究院, 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000484. ———. “非洲冲突后重建：中国日益增长的作用.” Think Tank. 上海问题研究院, 2011. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000447. 张晓慧. “中欧能源合作的未来——基于能源安全与气候变化的分析,” March 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal‐GJJH201203007.htm. 张瑶华. “日本在中国南海问题上扮演的角色_中国国际问题研究所.” Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究 所, August 3, 2011. http://www.ciis.org.cn/chinese/2011‐08/03/content_4381397.htm. 曲星. “联合国宪章、保护的责任与叙利亚问题.” Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究所, March 31, 2012. http://210.72.21.12:8008/servlet/PagePreviewServlet?type=1&articleid=4913651&nodeid =521565&siteid=453. 杜萌, and 张媛. “浅析维护我国的国家安全问题.” 法制与社会：旬刊 no. 10 (20120611): 142–144. 江凌飞. “现实中国的国际安全困境及其挑战.” 新华月报 no. 15 (20121008): 58–60. 王沙骋, and 王鹏飞. “欧盟共同安全与防务的新挑战——科索沃独立问题.” 沧桑 no. 1 (20110627): 171–172. 王眉. “政协委员解读——新国际安全环境下的对外传播.” 对外传播 no. 4 (20120514): 7–8.

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胡锦涛. “加强互利 合作共创美好未来——在金砖国家领导人第四次会晤大范围会谈时的讲话.” 新 世纪领导者 no. 4 (20120910): 1–1. 薛理泰. “美国‘重返亚洲’趋势应对.” 人民论坛 no. 21 (20111219): 6–6. 闫利娟. “联合国集体安全机制的现实挑战与未来展望.” 法制与社会：旬刊 no. 2 (20120305): 178– 179.

Annex: Analyzed Foresight Studies (2011‐2012)

Chinese “《钓鱼岛是中国固有领土》白 皮书” (White Paper of the Chinese Government “Diaoyu Island: China’s Inherent Territory”). 政府新闻机构. 中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室 (The State Council Information Ofice of the People’s Republic of China), September 25, 2012. http://www.scio.gov.cn/ztk/dtzt/85/index.htm. Golley Jane, and 宋立刚 (Song Ligang). “多变世界格局下的中国崛起” (China’s Rise Under The Changeable Global Structure). In 崛起的中国：全球机遇与挑战 (The Rise of China: Global Opportunities and Challenges), 1–9. First Edition. 048365. Beijing: 社会科学文献出版社 (Social Sciences Academic Press), 2012. 何一鸣 [Héyı̄mı́ng] (He Yiming). “杨原俄罗斯气候政策转型的驱动因素及国际影响分析” [èluósı ̄ qı̀hòu zhèngcè zhuǎnxı́ng de qū dòng yı̄nsù jı́ guójı̀ yı̌ngxiǎng fēnxı̄] (Explaining the Motivation and International Inluence of Russian Climate Policy Transformation), 2011. 侯自强 [Hou Ziqiang] (Ziqiang Hou). “国际安全的结构性矛盾与中国的国际形象建设 ” [guoji anquan de jiegouxing maodun yu zhongguo de guoji xingxiang jianshe] (Structural Contradiction of International Security and China’s International Image Construction), 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal‐DWDC201204011.htm. 俞新天 (Yu Xintian). “中国主权理论的发展与扩大台湾国际空间的思考” (Thoughts on China’s Sovereignty Theory Development and Taiwan’s Expansion Into International Space). Think Tank. 上 海 问题研究院 (Shanghai Institute of International Studies), 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000503. 俞新天 (Yu Xintian). “美国对冲政策的新特点与中国的应对” (New Features of the U.S. Hedge Policy and Response of China). Think Tank. 上海问题研究院 (Shanghai Institutes for International Studies), 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000531. 俞新天 (Yu Xintian). “两岸在涉外领域合作的经验及前景” (Experience and Prospects of Cross‐strait Cooperation in Foreign Fields). Think Tank. 上海问题研究院 (Shanghai Institute for International Studies), 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000527. 冯华 [Feng Hua] (Hua Feng). “基于国际危机管理的中美海上军事安全合作” [jiyu guoji weiji guanli de zhongmei haishang junshi anquan hezuo] (The Marine Security Cooperation Between Chinese and American Navy: Viewed from the Perspective of International Crisis Management), 2011. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD‐90002‐1012020485.htm.

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冯涛 [Feng Tao] (Tao Feng). “综合核安全:冷战后国际核安全威胁及其应对” [zonghe heanquan: lengzhan hou guoji heanquan weixie jiqi yingdui] (The Comprehensive Nuclear Safety: The post‐Cold War International Nuclear Security Threats and Their Responses), 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal‐SKZH201203035.htm. 冯玉军 (Feng Yujun). “普京复任后的俄美关系前景” (The Prospects for Russian‐US Relations After Putin Reinstatement). 机关刊物. 前 线 (Frontline), November 30, 2012. http://www.bjqx.org.cn/qxweb/n60670c776.aspx. 刘中民中民 (Liu Zhongmin). “中东变局与中国外交的几个基本问题” (Several Basic Problems of The Situation Change in the Middle East and China Diplomacy). Chinese Digital Library. 知网空间 CNKI (HowNet Space), 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL‐GJGC201201002.htm. 刘亚伟 [Liu Yawei] (Yawei Liu). “被本·拉丹改变的美国” [bei benladeng gaibian de meiguo] (Osama Bin Laden Changed the United States). 决策与信息, no. 7 (20120507): 42–44. 刘友发 (Liu Youfa). “未来 10 年中国周边经济安全形势及对策思考” (China’s Economic Security Surroundings in Next 10 Years and Thoughts on Solutions). Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究所 (China Institute of International Studies), July 23, 2012. http://210.72.21.12:8008/servlet/PagePreviewServlet?type=1&articleid=5182521&nodeid=5215 65&siteid=453. 刘友法 (Liu Youfa). “中国与亚洲国家关系概况及对策思考” (Description and Countermeasures of State‐To‐State Relations Between China and The Rest of Asia). Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究所 (China Institute of International Studies), June 21, 2012. http://www.ciis.org.cn/chinese/2012‐ 06/21/content_5149047.htm. 刘友法 [Liu Youfa] (Youfa Liu). “未来 10 年中国周边经济安全形势及对策思考” [weilai shinian zhongguo zhoubian jingji anquan xingshi ji duice sikao] (China’s Neighbouring Economic Security Situation and Countermeasures in Following Ten Years). 国际问题研究, no. 4 (20120903): 80–89. 刘子奎 (liu Zikui). “奥巴马政府出口控制改革评析” (Comment and Analysis on Reform of Export Control in Obama Administration). 现代国际关系 (Contemporary International Relations), no. 3 (2012): 31–37. 刘封 [Liu Feng] (Feng Liu). “国际政治中的联合阵线” [guoji zhengzhi zhong de lianhe zhengxian] (Alliances in International Politics), 2012. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal‐ WJXY201205007.htm. 刘小溪 [Liu Xiaoxi] (Xiaoxi Liu). “国际环境干预与中国环境外交” [guoji huanjing ganyu yu zhongguo huanjing waijiao] (International Climate Internvetion and China’s Environmental Diplomacy), 2011. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD‐10183‐1011094907.htm. 刘强 (Liu Qiang), and 董庆安 (Dongqing An). “权力结构变迁下的东北亚政治经济生态: 国际政治经 济学中的结构性权力视角” (The Ecology of the Northeast Asian Political and Economic Power Structure Changes: The Perspective of Structural Power in the International Political Economy). 国际 观察 (International Observation), no. 5 (2011): 8. 刘强 [Liu Qiang] (Qiang Liu). “未来 5～10 年国际安全形势的主要趋势” [weilai wu dao shi nian guoji anquan xingshi de zhuyao qushi] (Major Tendency of International Security Situation in Following Five to Ten Years). 和平与发展, no. 5 (20101227): 6–12.

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刘思思 [Liu Sisi] (Sisi Liu). “北约的未来,动能何在?” [beiyue de weilai, dongneng hezai] (Dynamics of the NATO in the Future), 2012. http://www.qikan.com.cn/Article/ddsj/ddsj201206/ddsj20120614.html. 刘波 [TUSIAD] (Toktaş Şule). “中东剧变与人道主义干预的新发展” [Zhongdong jubian yu rendao zhuyi ganyu de xinfazhan] (The Middle East Upheaval and Development of Humanity Intervention), April 2012. http://mall.cnki.net/magazine/Article/XDGG201204009.htm. 刘艳玲 [Liúyànlı́ng] (Liu Yanling). “全球治理视阈下核武器扩散问题控制研究” [Quánqiú zhı̀lı̌ shı̀ yù xià héwǔ qı̀ kuòsàn wèntı́ kòngzhı̀ yánjiū ] (Global Governance and Nuclear Proliferation Control), 2011. 刘莎 [Liú sh ā] (Liu Sha). “冷战后东北亚安全合作探析” [Lěngzhàn hòu dōngběi yà ānquán hézuò tànxı̄] (Northeast Asian Security Cooperation After the Cold War), 2011. 刘飞涛 (Liu Feitao). “美国涉台政策辩论及对台军售政策走势” (US Debate on Taiwan‐related Policy and Trend of Arms Sales Policy to Taiwan). Think Tank. 中国国际问题研究所 (China Institute of International Studies), July 23, 2012. http://210.72.21.12:8008/servlet/PagePreviewServlet?type=1&articleid=5182463&nodeid=5215 65&siteid=453. 卢静 [Lú j ı̀ng] (Lu Jing). “冷战后大国安全关系的特征与走向” [Lěngzhàn hòu dàguó ānquán guānxı̀ de tèzhēng yǔ zǒuxiàng] (International Security Relationship Between the Great Powers After the Cold War: Core Features and New Trends), 2012. 吕耀东 (Lv Yaodong). “深化同盟机制:日美双边互动的战略愿景” (Strengthening Alliance Mechanism: Strategic Prospect of US‐Japan Bilateral Interaction”). Research Institute. 中国社会科学 院日本研究所 (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Japanese Studies), July 5, 2012. http://ijs.cass.cn/2012/0705/627.html. 吴兆利 [Wu Zhaoli] (Zhaoli Wu). “印巴全面对话:进程、成果与未来走向” [yinba quanmian duihua: jincheng, chengguo yu weilai zouxiang] (Comprehensive India‐Pakistan Dialogue: Process, Achievements and Trends), April 2010. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal‐ LAYA201004011.htm. 吴寄南 (Wu Jinan). “中日关系进入新的历史转型期——兼论两国增强战略互信的路径选择” (Incoming Historical Transition of China‐Japan Relations and Studies on Path Selection to Strengthen Strategic Trust Between Two Countries). Think Tank. 上海问题研究院 (Shanghai Institutes for International Studies), 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000519. 吴寄南 (Wu Jinan). “中日关系：‘不惑之年’的思考” (Sino‐Japanese Relations: Thoughts on 40th Anniversary of the Establishment of Bilateral Relations). Think Tank. 上海问题研究院 (Shanghai Institute of International Studies), 2012. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000525. 吴晓燕 [Wu Xiaoyan] (Xiaoyan Wu). “论中国—东盟自由贸易区的启动及其影响‐‐《山东师范大学》 2012 年硕士论文” [lun zhongguo dongmeng ziyou maoyiqu de qidong jiqi yingxiang] (On the Formation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area and Its Impact), 2012. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD‐10445‐1012338835.htm. 周士新 (Zhou Shixin). “东盟整合的议程选择” (Agenda Selection of ASEAN Integration). Think Tank. 上海问题研究院 (Shanghai Institutes for International Studies), 2011. http://www.siis.org.cn/Lunwen_View.aspx?lid=10000528. 40

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