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China Yearbook 2014 Editor Prashant Kumar Singh Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 2015 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in ISBN: 978-93-82512-26-4 First Published: August 2015 Cover image source: Brahma Chellaney, “What Are Chinese Submarines Doing in the Indian Ocean?” The Huffington Post, May 19, 2015 at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brahma-chellaney/chinese-subs- in-indian-ocean_b_7320500.html?ir=India&adsSiteOverride=in Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute or the Government of India. Published by: Magnum Books Pvt Ltd Registered Office: C-27-B, Gangotri Enclave Alaknanda, New Delhi-110 019 Tel.: +91-11-42143062, +91-9811097054 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.magnumbooks.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Contents Introduction 5 Section I: Internal Issues 9 1 2014: The Year of Questions in China’s Domestic Politics 11 Avinash Godbole 2 Chinese Society in 2014: The Forces of Transformation 23 Gunjan Singh 3 Return of the Iron Fist: Censorship and Control Stifle Chinese Media and the Internet 35 Shruti Pandalai 4 The ‘Tibet Issue’ in 2014 and the Way Forward 47 Antara Ghosal Singh 5 The Developments in the Chinese Armed Forces in 2014 63 Naval Jagota Section II: China and Great Powers 75 6 A Partnership of Mutual Expediency: China-Russia Relations in 2014 77 M.S. Prathibha 7 China-Japan Relations: Moving beyond the Impasse 91 Titli Basu 8 Sino-US Relations 2014: Decoding the New Model of Major Country Relations 105 Rup Narayan Das 9 EU-China Relations: An Overview 117 Stuti Banerjee Section III: China and Global Governance 129 10 China and the United Nations 131 Arpita Anant 3 Section IV: China and the Regions 147 11 Relations between China and the Korean Peninsula in 2014: Dilemma over Engagement and Estrangement 149 Pranamita Baruah 12 Maintaining the Status Quo: China in Southeast Asia 165 Sampa Kundu 13 China and West Asia in 2014: Linking Together 175 Neha Kohli 14 Dragon’s Footprints in Africa: Diplomacy and Dilemmas 189 Pranav Kumar 15 China-Australia Relations in 2014: An Assessment 199 Rahul Mishra 16 China’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean 211 Prashant Kumar Singh Section V: China and South Asia 235 17 India-China Relations: Pointing to a Transitional Course? 237 Jagannath Panda 18 China’s Attitude towards Pakistan 249 Sumita Kumar 19 China-Nepal Relations in 2014 259 Nihar R. Nayak 20 Bhutan-China Review 2014 267 Charisma M.S. Kundan 21 Bangladesh-China Relations in 2014 275 Smruti S. Pattanaik 22 China-Sri Lanka Relations in 2014 283 Gulbin Sultana 23 Maldives-China Relations in 2014 293 Anand Kumar About the Authors 297 4 Introduction China’s high growth rate, which it has witnessed which might have implications on regime stability. in the post-reform era, has made the country the Besides, ethnic unrest within China persists. second largest economy in the world in nominal Moreover, tensions with its maritime neighbours terms and the largest economy in terms of continue. Countries such as Japan and the purchasing power parity (PPP). Its recent Asian Philippines, with whom China has disputes, Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiative are also a part of the US security alliance; could emerge as a challenger to the existing hence there is always potential for a US-China international financial architecture. The AIIB has confrontation. Thus, China’s territorial assertions been signed upon by 50 countries at the time of have implications on regional stability. Therefore, writing. The countries include US allies such as the developments in China need to be continuously UK and Australia who have backed this initiative observed and analysed. The China Yearbook 2014 despite US reservations. China has emerged as is an attempt to track domestic developments in an alternative source of loans for many developing China, closely study the dynamics of its external countries spread over diverse geographies. It relations, and present a fresh perspective. had a defence budget of about US $ 132 billion in 2014. Its defence budget has, in fact, been China Yearbook 2014 comprises of 23 chapters increasing steadily every year, due to plans for arranged in five sections. The Yearbook opens military modernisation. President Xi Jinping’s with the section on China’s internal issues. In his One Belt, One Road vision has gained traction chapter on China’s domestic political scenario, and is steadily winning endorsements from more Avinash Godbole analyses the three issues of and more countries. Many see this initiative as the anti-corruption campaign, rule of law, and Xi Jinping’s Asia Rebalancing. In recent years, Hong Kong protests which took place in 2014 Chinese and Russian vetoes against UN Security through the prism of systemic legitimacy. While Council resolutions for UN action in conflict-torn President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive has Syria demonstrate China as an effective lever been ongoing since 2013, the rule of law was in international politics. Given the above, some the theme of the fourth plenum of the Communist countries could be tempted to view China as a Party. The protests in Hong Kong in the latter countervailing force to US pre-eminence in the half of the year emerged as a serious political world. Thus, China has emerged as a power issue for the Chinese government. Gunjan Singh which cannot be ignored in the international explains tensions that Chinese society faced economic, political and security calculations. in 2014. She argues that the post-reform era in China has introduced changes in Chinese However, China has its vulnerabilities too. In society which the Communist Government is the domestic arena for example, there is mass still finding hard to negotiate. She analyses one- dissatisfaction against the quality of governance, child policy, media regulations, environmental 5 degradation, and ethnic issues with reference makes an attempt to ascertain implications of this to Tibet and Xinjiang. Shruti Pandalai contends relationship for India’s strategic autonomy. Stuti that the Xi Jinping era in China has reversed the Banerjee flags developments in China-Europe earlier trend of permissiveness towards media relations during the year 2014. She underscores freedom. She points out that the year 2014 that while the relationship is essentially economy witnessed intensified curbs on the media and and development oriented, the EU has received argues that in 2013 the Xi Government made red increased attention in China. China has brought lines for the media and in 2014 mounted legal out two policy papers on its relations with the EU. enforcement of those red lines. Antara Ghosal Both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang Singh provides an assessment of the situation in paid official visits to Europe in 2014. Tibet during 2014 from the Chinese and Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) perspective. She In the section on China and Global Governance, makes an attempt ‘to trace a pattern leading to Arpita Anant analyses China’s engagements in the a potential solution to the Tibet issue in days to United Nations in 2014, which according to her come.’ Naval Jagota studies the anti-corruption was indicative of ‘an ongoing trend of engaging drive in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with the multilateral system when it has the (PLA) in 2014. He also flags the developments on scope to influence it, developing alternatives to it budget, training, and induction and technology and preventing the system from constraining its front during 2014. behaviour when its concerns territorial issues.’ In the section on China’s relations with the Great This issue of the China Yearbook has provided Powers, M.S. Prathibha analyses how China- extensive coverage of China’s relations with Russia relations have undergone tremendous regions across the world. Pranamita Baruah changes in 2014 in the context of the crisis in studies China’s relations with the two Koreas: Ukraine. She argues that the crisis has expanded North Korea and South Korea. The involvement their strategic partnership. She maintains that of US-China dynamics in the peninsula and its this partnership has ‘dented western pressure on implication on regional stability justifies the study Russia.’ Titli Basu captures thaw in China-Japan of China-Korea relations in a regional context. relations after ‘a period of escalated tensions.’ She argues that North Korea’s ‘belligerency and According to her, the first Xi-Abe meeting on the provocative behaviour’ tends to create tensions in sideline of APEC summit marked this thaw. She China-North Korea relations. On the other hand, maintains that ‘while the relation will continue to China-South Korea relations have witnessed encounter tense moments’, the two countries positive developments that are new and she need to maintain overall positive overtones in their elucidates on the implications of this improved relations ‘by creating space for peaceful dialogue.’ relationship for the region. She, however, Rup Narayan Das underlines how China-US asserts that to conclude confidently on possible relations, arguably ‘the most consequential abandonment of North Korea by China is ‘still relations in the world today’ sought ‘to harmonise a little far-fetched’. Sampa Kundu underscores their complex relationship amidst security dilemma China’s assertive behaviour in the South China in the theater of Asia-Pacific and mutuality of Sea and the involvement of extra-regional powers economic and commercial interest’ in 2014.

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