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China's Quest for Global Primacy: an Analysis of Chinese International

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China's Quest for Global Primacy: an Analysis of Chinese International C O R P O R A T I O N TIMOTHY R. HEATH, DEREK GROSSMAN, ASHA CLARK China’s Quest for Global Primacy An Analysis of Chinese International and Defense Strategies to Outcompete the United States For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA447-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0615-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover images: prospective56/iStock/ Getty Images Plus; MF3d/iStock/Getty Images Plus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This research explores possible international and defense strategies that China might employ to outcompete the United States and achieve a position of international primacy. The posited strategies, although cre- ated by the authors, are framed by findings regarding Chinese political processes, concepts, policies, and national goals. The purpose of the analysis is threefold: to support U.S. planning and decisionmaking, to educate readers about China’s strategy and policymaking process, and to spur discussion about the stakes and nature of the competition. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Develop- ment Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. The research reported here was completed in August 2020 and under- went security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Pre- publication and Security Review before public release. For more information on the RAND International Security and Development Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figure and Tables ................................................................ ix Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Sources and Research Approach .................................................12 CHAPTER TWO Context: Strategy, Frameworks, and Processes for Achieving the China Dream ................................................................17 Policy Processes ....................................................................18 Trend Analysis and Theoretical Interpretation: Pursuing the China Dream ................................................................ 23 Framework for Development Strategy ..........................................29 The End State: China Dream ...................................................31 CHAPTER THREE Context: International Framework, End State, and Directives .........37 General Framework for Foreign Relations .....................................37 International End State: China as Preeminent Power ........................41 Directives: International Strategy Through 2035 .............................52 v vi China’s Quest for Global Primacy CHAPTER FOUR Context: Defense Framework, End State, and Directives ................59 Defining China’s “Defense Strategy” ...........................................59 Threat Assessment ................................................................62 Framework for Defense Strategy ................................................63 China’s Defense Strategy End State ............................................ 66 Directives: Strategy Through 2035 .............................................69 CHAPTER FIVE Chinese Perspectives on Competition with the United States ..........79 Chinese Perspective: Structural Drivers of U.S. Competition ............. 80 Regional and Global Competition ............................................ 86 CHAPTER SIX China’s Desired End States for U.S. Competition .........................93 Bilateral End State: China as the Superior Power ............................95 Chinese Foreign Policy End State for Successful U.S. Competition ...... 103 China’s U.S. Competition Strategy: Defense End States ................... 106 CHAPTER SEVEN China’s International Strategy for U.S. Competition ................... 111 Major Powers .................................................................... 112 China’s Periphery ................................................................ 121 Developing World ............................................................... 137 Multilateral Organizations ..................................................... 144 Domains of Global Governance ............................................... 148 CHAPTER EIGHT China’s Defense Strategy for U.S. Competition ......................... 155 PLA Missions in the U.S. Competition ...................................... 156 Chinese Directives Regarding Force Development and Employment in the U.S. Competition ................................................... 163 CHAPTER NINE Vulnerabilities in China’s Approach to U.S. Strategic Competition ................................................... 167 Domestic Vulnerabilities ....................................................... 168 Contents vii Vulnerabilities in International Strategy ..................................... 170 Defense Strategy Vulnerabilities ............................................... 174 CHAPTER TEN Conclusions and Implications .............................................. 179 Implications ...................................................................... 183 APPENDIX Sample Subobjectives for the International Dimension of China’s Strategy for U.S. Competition ......................................... 189 References ....................................................................... 209 Figure and Tables Figure 2.1. Four Steps in the Chinese Policy Process .........................19 Tables 2.1. Commonly Cited Trends in Chinese Documents on Foreign and Security Policies ...................................... 27 2.2. CCP’s Development Policy Framework .......................... 30 2.3. China Dream Domestic End State by 2050 ......................32 3.1. CCP’s Foreign Policy Framework ................................. 38 3.2. China Dream International End State by 2050 ..................49 3.3. China’s International Strategy Directives ........................ 54 4.1. CCP’s Defense Strategy Missions Framework .................. 64 4.2. CCP’s Defense Strategy Military Modernization Framework ............................................................65 4.3. End States for Defense Strategy ....................................67 4.4. China Defense Strategy Directives ................................73 6.1. Assessed Chinese “Victory” Condition in U.S.-China Relations ............................................................ 102 6.2. Assessed Chinese Foreign Policy End State for U.S. Competition ....................................................... 104 ix x China’s Quest for Global Primacy 6.3. Assessed Chinese-U.S. Competition Defense Strategy End State ............................................................ 107 7.1. Assessed Chinese Objectives for Major-Power Aspect of U.S. Competition .................................................. 120 7.2. Assessed Chinese Objectives for Periphery Aspect of U.S. Competition .................................................. 129 7.3. Assessed Chinese Objectives for the Developing World Aspect of U.S. Competition ...................................... 145 7.4. Assessed Chinese Objectives for the Multilateral Aspect of U.S. Competition .................................................. 147 7.5. Assessed Chinese Objectives for the Domains of Global Governance Aspect of U.S. Competition ....................... 153 8.1. Assessed Chinese Objectives for the U.S. Competition Defense Strategy: Missions (1) ................................... 158 8.2. Assessed Chinese Objectives for the U.S. Competition Defense Strategy: Missions (2) ..................................
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