The Vale of Aylesbury Plan Aylesbury Vale Fact Pack February 2011
Aylesbury Vale from Coombe Hill
This is a paper produced for background work into the potential next planning policy documents. The paper does not form planning policy for Aylesbury Vale.
Forward Plans, AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT COUNCIL 66 High Street Aylesbury HP20 1SD Telephone: 01296 585439 Email: [email protected] www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/planning-building Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
Contents
The contents of this fact pack have been taken from Life in Aylesbury Vale District Profile (October, 2010), with parts of the Annual Monitoring Report (March, 2010) and Hometrack Housing intelligent data (January, 2011).
Summary pg. 4
1. Location and Setting pg. 8
2. Demographics pg. 10
3. Employment pg. 22
4. Housing pg. 38
5. Access to the Countryside pg. 59
6. River Quality pg. 60
7. Transport and Travel pg. 61
8. Access to Services pg. 63
9. Health and Wellbeing pg. 65
10. Community Safety pg. 67
11. What Residents Think pg. 69
Glossary pg. 71
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Front cover photo source: AVDC, 2011 The Sustainable Communities Strategy for Aylesbury Vale 2009-2026
The Sustainable Communities Strategy sets out the long term vision for the district and the key local priorities – many of which will be addressed and delivered through other district or county-wide strategies, including the Vale of Aylesbury Plan. It is based on comprehensive consultation with local stakeholders, residents and the community and voluntary sector. It’s aim is to develop a sustainable community in Aylesbury Vale where people want to live and work now and in the future. The Strategy will look to shape Aylesbury Vale as a place by balancing and integrating the social, economic and environmental components that define our area. It is a vehicle for addressing difficult cross-cutting issues such as economic direction, community cohesion, social exclusion and climate change. The SCS has five themes, these are:-
• Thriving Economy: through this the partnership will build business and enterprise, develop skills and employment, support strategic infrastructure requirements and promote investment. • Sustainable Environment: Tackling climate change enhancing and protecting the local environment, reducing waste, re-use resources, increasing recycling and energy recovery and by efficiently managing the transport network. • Safe Communities: Reducing the level and fear of crime, anti-social behaviour, improving the safety of local people and promoting safe development. • Health and Wellbeing: Promoting healthy lifestyles, reducing health inequalities, improving the quality of life, reducing homelessness and providing well- connected communities. • Cohesive and Strong Communities: Sustained growth of a thriving voluntary community sector, increasing the confidence of communities and reducing social inclusion.
There are also three cross-cutting themes which are:-
• Responding to demographic change • Addressing inequalities • Personal responsibility
To view the document and for more information please see:-
http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/community-living/community-planning- partnerships/aylesbury-vale-community-plan/
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Summary
Population
• Aylesbury Vale’s population is based in the three major settlements of Aylesbury, Buckingham and Wendover and mid to small rural parishes. According to the 2001 Census over half of the parishes have less than 500 residents.
• According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid year estimates the population in Aylesbury Vale grew by almost 8,000 people between 2001 and 2009, an increase of almost 5%.
• The latest ONS ethnicity estimates for Aylesbury Vale show 13.2% of the population from ethnic minority groups in mid-2007 (up from 9.5% in 2001), with the “Other White” category remaining the largest non-white British group in the district.
• Between 2008 and 2033, Aylesbury Vale’s total population is expected to increase by 16%, according to ONS projections, with the population group aged 75 and over expected to grow by 135% over the same period.
• One of the contributors to this growth in the older population is increasing life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth has increased in Aylesbury Vale and the gap between females and males appears to have decreased.
• In 2008/09 the number of overseas nationals registering for National Insurance numbers in Aylesbury Vale fell by 12% compared to the previous year.
Economy
• Between 2007 and 2008 the Annual Business Inquiry data showed a rise in the overall number of employee jobs in Aylesbury Vale (up by 6%).
• According to the ONS Annual Population Survey, Aylesbury Vale has a relatively high proportion of its working population employed as managers and senior officials and a relatively low proportion in ‘elementary occupations’. Elementary occupations consist of simple and routine tasks which mainly require the use of hand-held tools and often some physical effort.
• The number of Aylesbury Vale residents claiming Job Seeker Allowance has decreased over the past year. The June 2010 total of 1,928 claimants was down by 20% over the past year (2,411 in June 2009).
• Over the past 12 months Aylesbury Vale’s claimants as a proportion of the
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resident working age population has fallen in line with the other Buckinghamshire districts.
• According to ONS Business Demography data, there were 920 new enterprises created in Aylesbury Vale district in 2008, 29% of the total in Buckinghamshire. 7.6% of these new businesses were larger than 0-4 employees - a rate below the regional and national averages.
• Four areas in Aylesbury Vale are in the worst 10% in England on the skills, education and training domain of the Index of Deprivation 2007.
• In 2009, Aylesbury Vale residents earned slightly more (£5.50) in gross weekly pay than residents in the South East.
• Many of the postcodes in Aylesbury Vale with no broadband service or with speeds less than 1Mbps are in rural areas.
Housing
• Aylesbury Vale has a “younger” stock of private sector housing than the national average. According to Aylesbury Vale District Council’s 2009 Private Sector House Condition Survey, 80% of private properties were constructed later than 1944 compared with 61% across England.
• Aylesbury Vale’s latest figures (2009) shows an increase in affordable housing completions (excluding key worker housing) in the district for the third year in succession. In 2009/10 a total of 460 new affordable homes were completed in Aylesbury Vale compared with 381 in 2008/09, 219 in 2007/08 and 124 in 2006/07.
• As of January 2010, lower quartile house prices - the cheapest market housing - in Aylesbury Vale were 8% below the peak (in quarter 3 2007).
• Aylesbury Vale remains the most affordable district for housing in Buckinghamshire, however, as of 2009, median house prices were still nearly 8 times median earnings.
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Environment
• Analysis of natural greenspace provision in the South East of England by Natural England and Forestry Commission shows Aylesbury Vale ranked third to bottom (behind all other district and unitary authorities in the region other than West Oxfordshire and Cherwell), with 69% of households meeting none of the Accessible Natural Green Space requirements.
• Aylesbury Vale’s rivers have been consistently assessed as poorer in chemical quality than rivers in other districts in Buckinghamshire.
• Between 2008/09 and 2009/10, residual waste collected per head in Aylesbury Vale fell by 2.3%. Aylesbury Vale’s recycling rate remains below other districts in the county with 22.2% of household waste recycled in 2009/10.
Transport and Access to Services
• Historical census surveys have shown a significant increase in car ownership in Aylesbury Vale.
• In 2001 43% of people in Aylesbury Vale travelled less than 5km to get to work.
• Almost 70% of people in Aylesbury Vale travelled to work by car or van in 2001.
• Aylesbury Vale ranked very poorly on a national measure of geographical accessibility of services (indices of deprivation 2007).
• In 2001, 25% of people with a limiting long term illness in Aylesbury Vale were without access to a car.
People and Communities
• The most recent Active People Survey (2008/09) shows that the proportion of Aylesbury Vale residents participating in sport and active recreation was at 13.6%, below Buckinghamshire’s other districts and below the regional (17.1%) and national (16.6%) averages.
• Aylesbury Vale continues to be a relatively safe place to live. Rates of crime fell in 2009/10 compared with the previous year and remain below the Thames Valley average.
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What our residents think
The top five things our residents think make Aylesbury Vale a good place to live are;
* Health Services * Low Crime * Education Provision * Affordable Decent Housing * Clean Streets
The top five things our residents think need improving are:
* Road and Pavement Repairs * Traffic Congestion * Activities for Teenagers * Public Transport * Affordable Decent Housing
• A survey in July 2010 showed that 80% or respondents were satisfied with their local area as a place to live.
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1. Location and Setting
Aylesbury Vale is a large shire district (900 square kilometres or 350 square miles) which is mainly rural in character and has a high quality environment. Parts of Aylesbury Vale have been designated for their landscape quality, either as forming part of the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, Areas of Attractive Landscape or Local Landscape Areas.
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. AVDC 100019797 2010 The Northern Part of the District
The northern part of the district directly adjoins Milton Keynes and Leighton Buzzard. This proximity means that there are strong linkages with these areas, with Milton Keynes and Leighton Buzzard both providing a source of employment and retail facilities for the area.
Buckingham is the second largest settlement in the district, and is located to the north of Winslow. It has a strong employment base and a wide range of other facilities serving
Page 8 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack the town and surrounding villages. Regular bus services exist to Aylesbury, Milton Keynes, Oxford and Cambridge.
Winslow is a small historic market town serving surrounding rural areas to the north of Aylesbury. It has a wide range of shops, including a number of specialist shops serving a wider catchment area. It has some employment on the Station Road Industrial Estate and in the town centre.
The Silverstone Motor Racing Circuit straddles the northernmost boundary between Aylesbury Vale and South Northamptonshire District, and is another important source of employment in this vicinity. The area north of Buckingham includes the internationally renowned grade 1 historic manmade parkland landscape of Stowe.
The Southern Part of the District
The southern part of the district contains substantial tracts of high quality landscape including areas designated as forming part of the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and the Metropolitan Green Belt. It also includes three of the larger settlements in the district:
Aylesbury is the administrative centre for both the District Council and Buckinghamshire County Council and is a focal point for housing, employment and retail development. The town has road transport links to London, the Midlands, Heathrow and the M1, M25 and M40 motorways, but links to other areas are weak. In terms of public transport there are good rail links to London, and bus services in the town and to the major settlements of the district are reasonably frequent.
Wendover is situated on the northern edge of the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and London’s Metropolitan Green Belt. The settlement acts as a service centre for a number of smaller villages in the area as well as a tourist base for visitors to the Chilterns. The RAF Halton training station is adjacent to Wendover. Like Aylesbury, Wendover has good rail links into London.
Haddenham is a large village with a good range of small shops, public houses and other services. It has a large number of jobs on the Haddenham Business Park. It has relatively good bus services to other urban areas, including Aylesbury and Oxford, and a railway station with train services to London and Birmingham.
The southern part of Aylesbury Vale is unusual in that the rural areas play a more significant role in providing employment, particularly on old airfields and former mineral workings, than one might normally expect. (For example, Long Crendon is one of the most important sources of employment in the district, particularly for manufacturing and business service activities, whilst Westcott and Pitstone also serve as important sources of employment in the rural areas).
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2. Demographics
Aylesbury Vale’s population is based in the two major settlements of Aylesbury, Buckingham and small and mid-sized rural parishes/towns.
• According to the 2001 Census, 51% of the parishes in the district (56 out of 110) had fewer than 500 residents.
• 45% of parishes in Aylesbury Vale had between 500 and 5,000 residents in 2001, while only 4% of parishes had a population over 5,000.
• In 2001 51% of Aylesbury Vale’s population lived in small and mid-sized rural parishes, while 49% lived in the major urban settlements.
Parishes by population size (percentage) (2001)
70% Aylesbury Vale 60% Chiltern South Bucks 50% Wycombe 40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Under 500 500 to 5,000 over 5,000
Settlement size (population)
Source: ONS census 2001, crown copyright reserved, htt p://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
According to the Office for National Statistics population estimates, the total resident
population of Aylesbury Vale in mid-2009 was 173,500 including 33,100 children aged 0 to 15 and 25,600 people over 65 years old.
• Children aged 0 to 15 represented almost one in five (19%) of the total population of Aylesbury Vale in 2009, just above the regional (18%) and national (17.5%) averages.
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• The district also has an above average proportion of people aged 30 to 44 and 45-64 and a below+ average proportion of people over 65.
• 15% of people in Aylesbury Vale are over 65 compared with 17% in the South East region.
Population by percentage age b and
Aged 0-15
Aylesbury Vale South East United Kingdom Aged 16-29
Aged 30-44
Aged 45-64
Aged 65+
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: ONS mid year 2009 population estimates, from ONS website. crown copyright reserved
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Population Characteristics
In 2001, 9.5% of Aylesbury Vale’s resident population was from ethnic minority groups the largest of which was “other White”. However, Aylesbury Vale had the lowest proportion of people in this group compared to the rest of Buckinghamshire.
• 2.4% of the population (over 4,000 people) was in the group “other White” in Ayesbury Vale compared with 3.2% in Wycombe, 3.8% in Chiltern and 5.1% in South Bucks.
• Indian and Pakistani groups together represented 2.8% (over 4,500 people) of the population of Aylesbury Vale in 2001 compared with 2.22% in Chiltern. The proportion of people in this group in South Bucks and Wycombe were higher than in Aylesbury Vale
Residential Population by ethnic group – Buckinghamshire District (2001)
• The latest ONS ethnicity estimates for Aylesbury Vale show 13.2% of the population from ethnic minority groups in mid-2007 (up from 9.5% in 2001) and the “Other White” category remaining the largest non-white British group in the district.
• The “Other White” group is predicted to have increased from 4029 people in mid-2001 to 5,800 in mid-2007 (a growth of +44%).
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• The largest increase is predicted in the African population with an increase of 132% or 967 people.
• There are also large increases predicted in the Mixed White and Black African, Bangladeshi and other ethnic group populations.
Population estimates by ethnic group 2001 and 2007
Note: These ONS population estimates are experimental. They are also based on the old 2007 mid year estimates before figures were revised in 2009 to take into account changes in migration calculations. They do give an indication of the predicted change since 2001, but should be used with caution.
The age profile of Aylesbury Vale’s population varies by ethnic group.
• At the time of the 2001 Census, the group with the highest proportion of young people aged 0 to 15 was “Mixed” (56%) followed by Asian/Asian British (33%), each of which was well above the proportion of people aged 0-15 in the District as a whole (21%).
• The groups with the highest proportion of older people were White-Irish (9%) and White-British (6%). All other groups had a lower proportion of older people than the district average (6%).
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Age profile of Aylesbury Vale’s population by ethnic group (2001)
70% 0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 59 60 to 74 75 and over 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% White - British White - Irish White - Other Mixed Asian or Asian Black or Black Chinese or White British British Other
Source: Source: ONS 2001 Census Ethnicity theme table T13 downloaded from nomis
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The map below shows ACORN data for Aylesbury Vale by postcode using the Bucks 10 Groups. Please see the glossary for full definition of each ACORN group. • In Aylesbury Vale the largest group is secure families (22%) closely followed by flourishing families at 18%.
• 11% of the district are in the hard pressed groups with a further 9% in the moderate means group. ACORN data for Aylesbury Vale by postcode using the Bucks 10 Groups
Buckingham Aylesbury
© Crown copyright. All rights reserved 100019797 2010 Source: ACORN data supplied by CACI under a partnership license.
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The largest group in Aylesbury Vale is secure families (22%) closely followed by flourishing families at 18%, these are both higher than the Buckinghamshire average.
• Aylesbury Vale has fewer wealthy mature professionals than the Buckinghamshire average and a higher percentage of people in the hard pressed group.
• The graph below shows Aylesbury Vales ACORN groups compared to Buckinghamshire average.
1 Wealthy mature professionals
2 Villages with wealthy commuters
3 Well-off managers
4 Affluent Greys
5 Flourishing Families
6 Urban Professionals
7 Secure Families
8 Settled Suburbia/Prudent Pensioners
9 Moderate Means
10 Hard Pressed
Not classified
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: ACORN data supplied by CACI under a partnership license.
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Long Term Population Growth
By 2033 the number of older people living in Aylesbury Vale is expected to increase significantly.
• Between 2008 and 2033, Aylesbury Vale’s total population is expected to increase by 16% a total of 27,700 people.
• Over the same period, the population aged 65-74 is expected to grow by 74% and the group aged 75 plus by 135%. This trend is similar to that expected nationally and is driven by increasing life expectancy and the current age profile of the population.
• This trend would result in an additional 25,300 people aged 65 and over in the district by 2033 equivalent in numerical terms to adding a town more that twice the size of Buckingham (Buckingham = 11,572 population).
120 2008 2033 100
80
60
40 Population in 000s in Population
20
0 0-4 5-14 15-19 20-64 65-74 75 and over
Source: ONS 2008-based population Projections, crown copyright reserved.
Note: ONS projections are past trend based and there will be local variations within the district. The projections are based on the age/gender structure of the population, alongside past trends of births, deaths and migration. They do not factor in the number of people that can 'fit' into the area due to planned number of house builds e.g. if a lot of housing has been created in the past, this is reflected in past migration trends with a lot of people moving into the area to fill the houses, so it assumes that lots of houses will be created in the future (and vice versa).
Page 17 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack The percentage increase in the population aged 75 and over in Aylesbury Vale is significantly higher than in the other districts in Buckinghamshire, the South East and England.
Percentage change in predicted population between 2008 and 2033
140% Aylesbury Vale 120% Chiltern South Bucks 100% Wycombe 80% South East
60% England
40%
20%
0% 0-4 5-14 15-19 20-64 65-74 75 and over All ages -20%
Source: ONS 2008-based population Projections, crown copyright reserved.
Aylesbury Vale currently has a higher proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 than the south east region, although this is predicted to continue into 2033 the gap is set to narrow.
The Vale currently has a lower proportion of people aged 75+ than the south east region this gap is also predicted to narrow with Aylesbury Vale having overtaken the South East by 2033.
Growth in 0-14 and 65+ population - Aylesbury Vale vs South East
30%
28% South East 0-14 26% Aylesbury Vale 0-14 24% South East 65 plus Aylesbury Vale 65 plus 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Source: ONS 2008-based population Projections, crown copyright reserved. Page 18 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack One of the contributors to the growth in the older population is increasing life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth has increased in Aylesbury Vale and the gap between females and males has decreased over the last 16 years.
• Life expectancy in Aylesbury Vale increased by 3 years for females and 5.2 years for males between 1991/93 and 2006/08.
• The gap between male and female life expectancy has decreased from 4.3 years in 1991/93 to 2.1 years in 2006/08.
By comparison the life expectancy trends in the other districts in Buckinghamshire also show a narrowing of the gap between males and females detailed in the table.
Life expectancy at birth trend - Aylesbury Vale district
84.0 Males Females
82.0
80.0
78.0
years 76.0
74.0
72.0
70.0 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS Life expectancy at birth (years) by local authority in England & Wales, from ONS website.
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Migration
According to the ONS, in 2007/08 levels of internal in-migration in Aylesbury Vale were above that of the other districts in Buckinghamshire, while International Migration was static.
Internal (UK) and international migration 2007/08
10000
8000
6000
People 4000
2000
0 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe Internal In-migration 7600 4700 4300 7400 Internal Out-migration 7100 4700 4000 8100 International In-migration 800 800 600 1100 International Out-migration 800 800 600 1300
Source: ONS Migration Indicator Tool mid-2004 to mid-2008
The trend in international migration (based mainly on International Passenger survey data) in Aylesbury Vale shows a change in the most recent year of data with out- migration not exceeding in-migration for the first time since 2004/05.
Aylesbury Vale International migration 2003/04 to 2008/09
1200
1000
800
600
400 International In-migration 200 International Out-migration
0 Mid-2003 to Mid-2004 to Mid-2005 to Mid-2006 to Mid-2007 to Mid-2008 to Mid-2004 Mid-2005 Mid-2006 Mid-2007 Mid-2008 Mid-2009
Source: ONS Migration Indicator Tool mid-2004 to mid-2008
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In 2008/09 the number of overseas nationals registering for National Insurance numbers in Aylesbury Vale dropped, reversing the upward trend of the previous 5 years.
• Registrations by adults in Aylesbury Vale in 2008/09 fell by almost 12% over the previous year, down from 1,180 in 2007/08 to 1,040 in 2008/09.
NINo Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals entering Buckinghamshire
1800 Aylesbury Vale 1600 Chiltern 1400 South Bucks 1200 Wycombe
1000
800
600
400
200
0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Source: DWP Website http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/niall/nino_allocation.asp
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3. Employment
The most recent Annual Business Inquiry (2008) shows 86,200 people employed in Aylesbury Vale with the largest sector of employment in “Public Admin, Education & Health” accounting for 27% of total in the district (19,300 employees).
• Note that the ABI is a survey of businesses and does not include those who are self- employed.
• Compared with the other Districts in Buckinghamshire, Aylesbury Vale had a higher proportion of employment in “Public Administration, education and health” and a lower proportion in “Banking, finance and insurance” and in “Transport and Communications.
Percentage of total employees by broad industry 2008
Public Admin, Education & Health
Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants
Banking, Finance & Insurance
Manufacturing
Other Services
Transport & Aylesbury Vale Communications Chiltern South Bucks Construction Wycombe South East Great Britain Agriculture & Fishing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry downloaded from Nomis.
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According to the ONS Annual Population Survey, Aylesbury Vale has a relatively high proportion of its working population employed as managers and senior officials and a relatively low proportion in ‘elementary occupations’.
• 18.9% of Aylesbury Vale’s working population were employed as managers and senior officials – above the national average (15.7%) and regional average (17.7%) but below other districts in the county.
• 15.8% of Aylesbury Vale’s working population were employed in administrative and secretarial occupations – above the national average (11.2%) and regional average (11.6%) and above other districts in the county.
Employment by occupation - % of working population Jan 09 – Dec 09
Employment by occupation - % of working population Jan 09 - Dec 09
1 Managers and senior officials
2 Professional occupations
3 Associate professional & technical
4 Administrative & secretarial
5 Skilled trades occupations
6 Personal service occupations Aylesbury Vale 7 Sales and customer service occs Buckinghamshire 8 Process plant & machine operatives South East 9 Elementary occupations Great Britain
0 5 10 15 20 25
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, downloaded from Nomis; % of those over 16 in employment Page 23 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
Unemployment Trend
The district claimant count - the number of Aylesbury Vale residents claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance decreased in May and in June 2010.
Claimant Count June 20 08 to June 2010
3500 Aylesbury Vale 3000 Chiltern
2500 South Bucks Wycombe 2000
1500
1000
Number of Claimants Number 500
0 Jul-08 Jul-09 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jun-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-09
Source: Claimant Count, ONS crown copyright reserved, downloaded from Nomis website The present total of 1,928 claimants is more than double that of two years ago (923 in June 2008) and about a third of the peak of the 1990s (5,857 in December 1992).
Long term trend in claimant count March 1992 to June 2010
6,000 Aylesbury Vale 5,000 Chiltern South Bucks 4,000 Wycombe
3,000
2,000
Number of Claimants 1,000
0 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Source: Claimant Count, ONS crown copyright reserved, downloaded from Nomis website
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Over the past 24 months Aylesbury Vale’s claimants as a proportion of working age population have increased and decreased in line with the other Buckinghamshire districts, with the exception of Wycombe.
• The claimant rate for Aylesbury Vale was around 1% in June 2008 and this increased to 2.2% in 2009 and decreased to 1.7% in 2010. This represents an overall increase of 0.9 percentage points between June 2008 and June 2010. • JSA Claimant rate (% of residents working age population) 2008 to 2010
Source: ONS Business Demography Dataset http://wwww.statistics.gov.uk/statBase/Product.asp?vink=15186
JSA claimant rate (% of resident working age population) 2005 to 2010
3 Aylesbury Vale 2.5 Chiltern South Bucks 2 Wycombe
1.5
Claimant rate 1
0.5
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Claimant Count, ONS crown copyright reserved, downloaded from Nomis .
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Business growth
According to ONS Business Demography data, there were 920 new enterprises created in Aylesbury Vale in 2008, 29% of the total in Buckinghamshire.
Births of new enterprises by size band (2008)
Source: ONS Business Demographic dataset http://wwww.statistics.gov.uk/statBase/Product.asp?vink=15186
7.6% of these new businesses were larger than 0-4 employees, below the regional and national averages.
Proportion of new enterprises that are 5 employees or more (2008)
England 9.0%
South East 8.6%
Buckinghamshire 7.4%
Aylesbury Vale 7.6%
Chiltern 7.5%
South Bucks 8.5%
Wycombe 6.4%
Source: ONS Business Demography dataset http://wwww.statistics.gov.uk/statBase/Product.asp?vink=15186
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In 2008 the number of new enterprises in Aylesbury Vale fell after an increase in 2007.
Count of start -ups of new enterprises 2004 to 2008
1,200
1,000
800
600
400 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern 200 South Bucks Wycombe 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS Business Demography dataset http://wwww.statistics.gov.uk/statBase/Product.asp?vink=15186
The number of businesses in Aylesbury Vale ceasing to trade has decreased every year since 2004 unlike South Bucks and Chiltern who saw an increase in “collapses” in 2007.
Count of collapse of new enterprises 2004 to 2008
1,200
1,000
800
600
400 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern 200 South Bucks 0 Wycombe 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 http://www.statistic s.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=15186 Source: Source: ONS Business Demography dataset
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Taking into account the “start-ups” and “collapses” of enterprises there were 8,810 active businesses in Aylesbury Vale in 2008, 29% of the Buckinghamshire total.
• The number of active enterprises in Aylesbury Vale is fairly stable, with an increase of 5% between 2004 and 2008.
Trend in the number of active enterprises 2004 to 2008
10,000
9,000 8,000 7,000
6,000
5,000 4,000
3,000 Aylesbury Vale 2,000 Chiltern South Bucks 1,000 Wycombe 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS Business Demography dataset Number of Jobs
The number of jobs in Aylesbury Vale District over the past few years is shown in the table and graph below:
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Number of 64,500 63,900 65,000 69,500 70,200 66,300 65,900 69,700 jobs – employees Number of 12,700 10,300 11,600 12,700 13,500 12,400 16,000 16,500 jobs – self employed Total 77,200 74,200 76,600 82,200 83,700 78,700 81,900 86,200 Source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp Annual Business Inquiry. © Crown Copyright. Source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp Labour Market Profile. © Crown Copyright.
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Number of jobs
88000 86000 84000 82000
80000 78000 76000 74000 72000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp Annual Business Inquiry and Labour Market Profile
Note that the format and basis of employment data changed in 2006 and advice from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is that estimates of change across this period are unreliable. So we cannot say if the apparent decrease from 2005 to 2006 is real or due to changes in calculation. The figure of 78,700 is the baseline from which to measure growth.
The figures show a growth in the number of jobs from 2006 to 2008. There is still a need to tackle out-commuting from the district, and to ensure that future plans for the District successfully deliver new jobs.
The pie chart below shows the number of jobs (2008) broken down by employment use classes. This shows the importance of non-B use classes for the provision of jobs in the District (in other words, jobs in sectors such as retail, health, education, leisure etc). The proportions have changed little when compared to 2007.
12%
7% Industrial (B1(c) & B2)
Warehousing (B8)
Offices (B1(a) & B1(b))
60% 21% Non B
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system. Page 29 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
Percentage of employees in knowledge based sectors
Knowledge based sectors comprise the following categories of employment: • High-tech manufacturing • Financial and business services • Communications • Computing and research and development • Media
The number of employees in knowledge based sectors in the last four years is shown below. Note that, as explained above, it is not possible to make a direct comparison between 2006 employment data and data for earlier years.
Year Employees in % of total knowledge based employees sectors 2008 12,800 18% 2007 12,500 19% 2006 11,900 18% 2005 12,700 18% Source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp Annual Business Inquiry employee analysis. © Crown Copyright.
There has been little change in the percentage of employees in knowledge based sectors over these four years.
Use class Floorspace Floorspace lost gained (m 2) (m 2) B1 (a) Offices 1,699 2,945 B1 (b) Research and development 0 545 B1 (c) Light industry 162 794 B1 Business (planning permission not specific to subclasses of B1) 8 575 B2 General industry 3,183 4,745 B8 Storage or distribution 1,877 626 B1/B2/B8 (planning permission not specific within B use classes) 2,425 254 Total for all B classes 9,354 10,484 Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system.
It can be seen that overall there was a small loss in employment floorspace in the 2009/10 year. There was only one large contributor (gain or loss over 2,000m 2 on a single site) to the total figures:
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• Change of use from B1/B2 to a training centre (D1) at Smeaton Close, Aylesbury (loss of 3,050m 2 floorspace).
Completed floorspace (B use classes)
60000 40000 Floorspace gained 20000 (m2) Floorspace lost (m2) 0
-20000 Net completions (m2) Square metres Square -40000 -60000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year ending 31st March
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The year-by-year trend for the amount of completed floorspace (all B classes) is shown in the graph below. It can be seen that there has been little growth in B use employment floorspace over the last four years.
The division between Aylesbury and the rest of the district of the amount of completed floorspace (in the current monitoring year) is as follows:
Floorspace Floorspace lost gained (m 2) (m 2) Aylesbury 4,198 6,185 Rest of the district 5,156 4,299 Total for district 9,354 10,484 Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The figures in the table above demonstrate the important contribution to employment development made by sites outside Aylesbury.
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Total amount of employment floorspace on previously developed land
The table below shows the % of gains in floorspace which were on previously developed (brownfield) sites. Obviously all losses in floorspace occur on brownfield sites.
Use class Floorspace gained (m 2) Floorspace gained on on brownfield sites brownfield sites as a percentage of floorspace gained on all sites B1 (a) Offices 1,474 87% B1 (b) Research and development 0 N/A B1 (c) Light industry 62 38% B1 Business (planning permission 8 100% not specific to subclasses of B1) B2 General industry 2,195 69% B8 Storage or distribution 1,374 73% B1/B2/B8 (planning permission not 2,077 86% specific within B use classes) Total for all B classes 7,190 77% Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The year-by-year trend for the proportion of floorspace developed for employment on previously developed land is shown in the graph below:
90 80 70 60 50
% 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year ending 31st March
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
This core output indicator is defined as land (in hectares) comprising (i) sites allocated for employment uses in Development Plan Documents (or in this case AVDLP), and (ii) sites for which planning permission has been granted for employment uses. For sites
Page 32 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack allocated in AVDLP (but not yet with planning permission) it is not possible to disaggregate the total site area into use classes. For sites with planning permission, the floorspace for each use class is generally recorded, but for some outline permissions, the detailed floorspace breakdown may not be available. Thus the figures are given separately in the tables below for allocated sites that do not have planning permission or that have outline planning permission but with no floorspace details, and sites with planning permission.
As at 31 st March 2010 Sites allocated in AVDLP that do not have planning 61.125ha permission or only have outline planning permission with no floorspace details (see table on pages 64-68) Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
It should be emphasised that this total area includes some estimates for the amount of employment land that might come forward from mixed-use allocations. Sites with outline permission (with no floorspace details) include: • Berryfields major development area (9ha B1/B2/B8).
Sites with planning permission as at 31 st Floorspace gains Floorspace losses March 2010 (m 2) (m 2) B1 (a) Offices 19,604 3,068 B1 (b) Research and development 32,754 6,315 B1 (c) Light industry 10,993 3,665 B1 Business (planning permission not 15,046 6,935 specific to subclasses of B1) B2 General industry 25,557 8,625 B8 Storage or distribution 27,558 29,545 B1/B2/B8 (planning permission not specific 59,139 2,720 within B use classes) Total for all B classes 190,651 60,873 Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The most significant sites with permission in terms of floorspace size (net gain or loss over 10,000m 2) are:
• Expansion of Haddenham business park (gain of 26,822m 2 B1/B2/B8 floorspace). • Erection of data processing centre at Pitstone Green business park (gain of 34,434m 2 B1 floorspace). • Development of land for employment purposes at Buckingham Road/Furze Lane, Winslow (gain of 15,000m 2 B1/B2/B8 floorspace). • Demolition of existing structure and erection of commercial (B1) units and residential units at Tingewick Road industrial estate, Buckingham (gain of 2,046m 2 floorspace and loss of 12,395m 2 B8 floorspace).
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• Demolition of existing buildings and erection of commercial buildings at Westcott Venture Park (loss of 6,165m 2 B1(b) floorspace and gain of 27,870m 2 B1/B2/B8 floorspace).
The amount of floorspace with planning permission over the last four years is shown in the graph below. It can be seen that there is a slight upwards trend.
Floorspace with planning permission (B use classes)
250000
200000 Floorspace gains (m2) 150000 Floorspace losses (m2) 100000 Net gain (m2)
Squaremetres 50000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year (as at March 31st)
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
Skills
Four areas in Aylesbury Vale are in the worst 10% in England on the skills, education and training domain of the Index of Deprivation 2007.
This includes two areas in Southcourt ward and two areas in Quarrendon ward.
• The Education, Skills and Training domain includes measures of pupil attainment, absence rates, young people not in education and adult skills.
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Education, Skills a nd Training domain of the index of multiple deprivation 2007
Aylesbury
Source: CLG IMD 2007, © Crown copyright. All rights reserved 100019797 2010
Earnings and Income
According to the 2009 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, there is a slight variation in full-time earnings between people who live and people who work in Aylesbury Vale.
• The median gross weekly income for residents in Aylesbury Vale in 2009 was £542, around £40 above that of workers in the district.
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Median weekly full -time earnings 2009, residents vs workplace
700
600
500
400
300
200 £ average weekly £ average 100
0 Buckinghamshire Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe Workplace 556.1 502.2 537.8 609.8 573.6 Residents 597.6 542.1 680.1 625.4 607.5
Source: ONS, 2009 Annual Survey of Hours a nd Earnings, downloaded fr om www.statistics.gov.uk Median = the earnings value separating the higher half of a sample from the lower half.
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Between 2008 and 2009 the gross weekly full time earnings of Aylesbury Vale residents levelled off after an increase between 2006 and 2008. Those working in the Vale saw an increase in gross weekly pay in 2009 after a decrease between 2007 and 2008.
• In 2009, Aylesbury Vale residents earned slightly more (£5.50) in gross weekly pay than residents in the South East.
• Those working in Aylesbury Vale in 2009 earned £11 less a week than those working in the South East region.
Median gross weekly pay of full time workers
600 South East - residents South East - workplace 550 Aylesbury Vale - residents Aylesbury Vale - workplace
500
450
400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, downl oaded from www.statistics.gov.uk
Note that the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings is a sample survey and confidence intervals apply.
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4. Housing
Housing Profile
The total number of dwellings in the district at 31st March 2010 was 72,195. This figure is arrived at by starting with the number of dwellings as given by the 2001 census, adding subsequent completions of new dwellings and conversions, and subtracting dwellings lost. (Note that the number of dwellings is always somewhat larger than the number of households because of vacant homes, second homes, holiday homes etc). The upward trend in the number of dwellings since 2000 is illustrated in the graph below:
Number of dwellings
73,000 72,000 71,000 70,000 69,000 68,000 67,000 66,000 65,000 64,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year (as at March 31st)
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
Aylesbury Vale has a “more modern” stock of private sector housing than the national average.
• According to Aylesbury Vale District Council’s 2007 Private Sector house condition survey, 80% of private properties were constructed later than 1944 compared with 61% across England.
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Age of private properties, Aylesbury Vale v s England (% of total stock)
35.00%
30.00% Aylesbury Vale England 25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00% pre 1919 1919 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1980 post 1980
Source: Aylesbury Vale Private Sector House Condition survey, 2007; England average English Housing Condition Survey 2007
The most common type of house in Aylesbury Vale is Detached, of which there are 21,988 and represent 33% of all housing in the area.
Household Type
1% 7% 1% Detached Semi-detached 34% Terraced Flats - purpose built block 24% Flats - conversion Flats - commercial building Mobile or temporary structure In a shared dwelling
33% Source: Hometrack, 2011
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Household Occupancy
2% 2%
Occupied household space
Second residence/holiday accommodation
Unoccupied household space
Vacant household space
96%
Source: Census, 2001 accessed from ONS
The most common housing tenure in Aylesbury Vale is Owned with a mortgage or loan, of which there are 30,821 and represent 48% of all housing in the area
Only 16.8% of properties in Aylesbury Vale were classified as “non decent” compared with 35% nationally (Aylesbury Vale District Council’s 2007 Private Sector house condition survey)
• Private rented properties were more likely to be classed non-decent than Owner occupied properties.
Number of empty dwellings and number that have been empty for six months or more
Following a decrease in the number of empty homes in 2009, there has been an increase this year back to 2008 levels, as shown by the graph overleaf.
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3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year (as at 1st April)
Empty dwellings Of which, empty for over 6 months (private sector only*)
Source: AVDC Strategic Housing Team
The number of dwellings that have been empty for over six months is only available for private sector homes (i.e. excluding Local Authority, registered social landlord, and other public sector homes).
District Housing Growth
As at 31 st March 2010, there were 6,947 dwellings (net of demolitions and other losses) with valid planning permission. The trend since 2000 is shown in the graph below.
The very large increase in the number of dwelling commitments from 2007 to 2008 is mainly a result of the approval of planning permission for the Berryfields Major Development Area (3,000 dwellings) in November 2007.
Note that the number of dwelling commitments is not the same as the deliverable housing land supply. The deliverable land supply also includes some sites that do not yet have planning permission (but have either been approved subject to the completion of a planning obligation agreement, or are allocated in the Aylesbury Vale District Local Plan). The deliverable land supply also excludes sites for five or more dwellings that have planning permission but that have not passed the tests of deliverability , and only includes 90% of the total dwellings on sites under five dwellings that have full planning permission.
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Net dwelling commitments
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year (as at March 31st)
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
At 31 st March 2010, there were 736 dwellings that were under construction, but not yet completed. This is a small increase compared to the figure a year earlier. The trend since 2000 is shown in the graph overleaf.
Number of dwellings under construction
1000
900
800
700
600
500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year (as at March 31st)
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
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Housing completions
1000
800
600 Rest of District 400 Aylesbury 200
0 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The bar chart above shows the past trend in dwelling completions in Aylesbury and the rest of District. It can be seen that the number of completions in Aylesbury over the past three years has exceeded the number of completions in the rest of District. This trend is expected to continue over the next few years, due in particular to completions at the major development area at Berryfields.
Dwelling completions for the current year
A more detailed breakdown of the completions for the 2009/10 monitoring year is given in the table below:
New dwellings completed 737 Conversions/changes of use completed 97 Gross additional dwellings 834 Dwellings demolished 22 Dwellings lost by reason of conversions/changes of use 17 Losses of dwellings 39 Net additional dwellings 795 Source: AVDC Forward Plans monitoring system
The main sites contributing to the housing completions were:
• Weedon Hill, Aylesbury (Buckingham Park) – 181 completions. • Former Stoke Mandeville Hospital site, Aylesbury (The Green and The Avenue) – 97 completions. • Former Princess Mary’s Hospital, Wendover (Princess Mary Gate) – 92 completions. • Walton Street, Aylesbury (Viridian Square) – 52 completions.
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• Bearbrook Single Persons Unit, Oxford Road, Aylesbury – 28 completions (36 bedspaces). • Former Big Hand Mo’s, Oxford Road/Friarage Road, Aylesbury (Morlands House) – 24 completions.
The housing trajectory published in the 2009 AMR (showing the position as at the end of September 2009) predicted that we would achieve 765 completions in 2009/10. Actual completions exceeded this prediction by 30 dwellings. There were more completions than expected at Weedon Hill, Princess Mary’s Hospital and Stoke Mandeville Hospital, as well as on some smaller sites. This was partly cancelled out by less completions than estimated at Moreton Road (Buckingham), former Pitstone Cement works, and some other smaller sites.
The maps on the next two pages show the geographical spread of completions across the wards of the District.
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Housing Completions by Wards
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District Affordable Housing Completions by Ward
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Buckingham and Aylesbury Affordable Housing Completions by Ward
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Housing Supply and Demand
• Properties in Aylesbury Vale (District) take on average 10.1 weeks to sell, compared to the regional average of 8.9 weeks.
• In Aylesbury Vale properties achieve on average 89% of their asking price, compared to the regional average of 92.4%.
• There are on average 13.1 viewings per sale in Aylesbury Vale (District), compared to the regional average of 12.5.
Housing Supply and Demand 25 Newly listed properties 20 Newly registered buyers
15
10
5
0
-5 D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N a u u a u u e e e e e p u o e p u o n c n c b a a n l p b a a n l p c r - g t v c r - g t v - r y - 0 - r y - 1 ------0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 1 1 - 1 1 1 0 9 0 1 0 1 9 0 9 0 1 0 -10 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 0 -15
Source: Hometrack, 2010
Housing sales
• 1,832 sales during 2010. This equates to 2.8% of the private housing stock
• turning over, compared to a regional average of 2.6%.
• 123 new build sales during 2010.
• Price band with most sales was between £150,000 to £175,000
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Number of Dwelling Sales by Property Type
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Flat/Maisonette property sales 3,000 Detached property sales 2,500 Semi-detached property sales 2,000 Terraced property sales
Number of Sales of Number 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Hometrack, 2011
Annual Dwelling Stock Turnover
8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Percentage of Dwelling Stock Dwelling of Percentage 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Hometrack, 2011
New Builds and Previously Owned Dwellings Sales
4,000 Previously Owned House Sales 3,500 Previously Owned Flat Sales 3,000 New Build House Sales 2,500 New Build Flat Sales 2,000 1,500
Number of Sales of Number 1,000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Hometrack, 2011
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Number of Sales by Price Band for 2010
300 250 250 230
200 184 158 142 150 109 92 95 88 100 77 63 63 Number of of Sales Number 55 50 47 33 50 29 25 22 10 6 3 1 0 50-75K 75-100K over2M+ 100-125K 125-150K 150-175K 175-200K 200-225K 225-250K 250-275K 275-300K 300-325K 325-350K 350-375K 375-400K 400-450K 450-500K 500-550K 550-600K 600-800K 1.0-1.25M 1.25-1.5M 800K-1.0M 1.5M-1.75M 1.75M-2.0M Source: Hometrack, 2011
House Prices
Between the peak in 2007 and the dip in 2009, lower quartile house prices (the cheapest market housing) in Aylesbury Vale fell by almost £39,000 or 22%. This was the largest percentage decrease across Buckinghamshire and more than neighbouring Cherwell and Milton Keynes.
• Equivalent house prices in Chiltern and Wycombe have shown an increase between 2007 and the first quarter of 2010 of 8%.
Change in lower quartile house price 2007 to 2010
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Lower quartile house prices 1996 to 2010
£300,000 Buckinghamshire
£250,000 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern £200,000 South Bucks Wycombe £150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0 1996-Q1 1996-Q3 1997-Q1 1997-Q3 1998-Q1 1998-Q3 1999-Q1 1999-Q3 2000-Q1 2000-Q3 2001-Q1 2001-Q3 2002-Q1 2002-Q3 2003-Q1 2003-Q3 2004-Q1 2004-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2010-Q1 2006-Q1
Source: Lower quartile house prices CLG table 583; 2010 Quarter 1 prices are provisional (June 10)
• The average house price in Aylesbury Vale (District) is currently £300,400 (based on sales and valuations over the last 3 months), compared to a regional average of £305,000 (Hometrack, 2010).
• The lower quartile house price in Aylesbury Vale (District) is currently £180,700 (based on sales and valuations over the last 3 months), compared to a regional average of £173,200 (Hometrack, 2010).
• The average price of a new build flat in Aylesbury Vale (District) is currently £155,400, compared to a regional average of £195,100 (Hometrack, 2010).
• The average price of a new build house in Aylesbury Vale (District) is currently £297,200, compared to a regional average of £326,100 (Hometrack, 2010).
• The number of bedrooms is a key determinant of price, current average prices in Aylesbury Vale (District) by bedrooms count and property type are as follows; o 1 bedroom flat - £110,600 o 2 bedroom flat - £137,900 o 2 bedroom house - £190,700 o 3 bedroom house - £252,600 o 4 bedroom house - £417,100
(Hometrack, 2010).
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Aylesbury Vale District Average Dwelling Price
£350,000 £300,000 £250,000 £200,000 £150,000 £100,000 £50,000 £0
03 4 08 09 0 03 008 09 20 20 200 2005 2 0 20 201 y v y 2004 y 2005 v y 2 v y 2010 ov 2002 o ov 2007 o o May 2002N Ma N Ma Nov Ma Nov May 2006Nov 2006May 2007N May 20N Ma N Ma Nov
Source: Hometrack, 2011
Affordability
Between 2006/07 and 2009/10, the majority of new affordable homes (excluding key worker housing) in the district were built in Aylesbury.
• Aylesbury accounted for 81% of the total of 1184 affordable housing completions in Aylesbury Vale between 2006/07 and 2009/10.
• In the latest year (2009/10), Aylesbury accounted for 71% of the total in the district.
Affordable Housing Completions excludi ng key worker housing
500
400
300
200
100 Affordable completions Affordable 0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Remaining area 49 24 21 114 Buckingham 0 0 4 18 Aylesbury 75 195 356 328
Source: Aylesbury Vale District Council Housing Team Page 53 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
For local residents Aylesbury Vale remains the most affordable district for housing in Buckinghamshire, however, as of 2009, median house prices were still nearly 8 times median earnings.
Aylesbury Vale’s “affordability index” of 7.50 was below the other districts in Buckinghamshire and below the South East region as seen in the graph overleaf.
Ratio of median house price to median earnings 2009
England 6.28
South East 7.71
Buckinghamshire 8.38
Aylesbury Vale 7.50
Wycombe 8.58
South Bucks 9.64
Chiltern 9.88
Source: CLG table 577 based on land registry data and the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Most affordable housing will be provided through a registered social landlord at rates substantially lower than the prevailing market rates. It does not include low cost market housing.
At the end of the financial year 2009/10 there were approximately 4,128 applicants registered as looking for property in Aylesbury vale as part of the Choice based letting scheme.
• This included around 1,038 looking to move from an existing social rented property.
• There were none in Band A, 211 in Band B, 669 in Band C and 3,248 in Band D.
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• The gross weekly rent for a 2 bed property rented from a Housing Association is £81 per week. The cost of buying an average 2 bed property with a 40% Homebuy product is £101 assuming a 90% mortgage and an 3.57% mortgage rate.
• The cost of buying an average 2 bed property in Aylesbury Vale (District) with an 85% mortgage is currently £143 per week assuming a 3.57% mortgage rate.
Source: Hometrack, 2011
The graph above shows how much you need to be earning in order to by a house or flat. If you are a first time buyer you need to be earning at least £30,000 to £35,000. If you are already a property owner you need to be earning at least £25,000 to £30,000.
Housing Need
Number of households on the housing register
Following a decrease in 2009, there has been an increase in the number of households waiting for housing. This returns to the upward trend of the previous few years, as shown by the graph overleaf (note that this graph shows the number of households on the waiting list excluding those waiting for a transfer): Page 55 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
Number of households on housing register
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year (as at 1st April)
Source: AVDC Strategic Housing Team
The maps on the next two pages show the geographical spread of the number of households on the housing register across the wards of the district (note that the numbers shown on these maps include households waiting for a transfer). There are also 1,022 households on the register but currently living in locations outside Aylesbury Vale District. There are a further 120 households for which we do not have full postcode information, and so we are unable to map these.
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Aylesbury vale district waiting list
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Buckingham and Aylesbury households on the waiting list
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5. Access to the countryside
According to the analysis of natural greenspace provision in the South East of England by Natural England and the Forestry Commission, Aylesbury Vale is ranked third to bottom (behind all other district and unitary authorities in the region other than West Oxfordshire and Cherwell), with 69% of households meeting none of the Accessible Natural Green Space requirements.
• This is a reflection of the relatively low number of country parks and areas of common land in the district – likely to be a result of historical land ownership.
• The analysis did not include access solely through public rights of way and Natural England are now looking at a new assessment using “green chains” based on a wider definition of greenspace provision.
Bottom 10 Councils in South East - %households meeting none of the ANGSt requirements
A study into the provision of accessible natural greenspace in the South East, produced for the South East AONBs Woodlands Programme, the Forestry Commission, and Natural England, February 2007; http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7d4mgd
Accessible Natural Greenspace standard: • That no person should live more than 300m from their nearest area of natural greenspace of at least 2ha in size. • That there should be at least one accessible 20ha site within 2km of home • That there should be one accessible 100ha site within 5km of home • That there should be one accessible 500ha site within 10km of home
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6. River quality
Aylesbury Vale’s rivers have been consistently assessed as poorer in chemical quality than rivers in other districts in Buckinghamshire for over 10 years.
• In 2006 (the latest data from the Environment Agency) 31% of Aylesbury Vale’s rivers were assessed as good chemical quality compared with 100% of rivers in Chiltern.
• Chemical measurements detect the most common types of pollution. Grades are defined by standards for dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and ammoniacal nitrogen.
Percentage of rivers assessed as of good chemical quality
100.00 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern 80.00 South Bucks Wycombe 60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: DEFRA River Water Quality table from 'http://www.defra.gov.uk/evidence/statistics/environment/inlwater/iwriverquality.htm
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7. Transport and travel
Historical census surveys have shown a huge increase in car ownership in Aylesbury Vale.
• Between 1981 and 2001 the number of cars in Aylesbury Vale increased by over 47,000 (101%), over double the growth in households (45%).
Growth in households and c ars between 1981 and 2001
Households 1981 Households 1991 Households 2001 All Cars 1981 All Cars 1991 All Cars 2001 100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe
Source: Census surveys ONS crown copyright reserved from Nomis website .
In 2001 43% of people in Aylesbury Vale travelled less than 5km to get to work.
• In Aylesbury Vale 11% of people worked mostly at or from home in 2001 and 20% of people travelled less than 2km to work.
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Distance travelled to work, 2001 census
25% Aylesbury Vale Chiltern 20% South Bucks Wycombe 15% South East England 10%
5%
0% Work at or Less than 2km to 5km to 10km to 20km to 30km to 40km to 60km and from home 2km 5km 10km 20km 30km 40km 60km over
Source: Census 2001, ONS Crown copyright reserved.
Almost 70% of people travelled to work by car or van in 2001, while 19% of people used a method of travel other than car, van, motorcycle, scooter or moped.
Mode of transport used to travel to work, 2001 census
70% Aylesbury Vale 60% Chiltern South Bucks 50% Wycombe 40% South East England 30% 20%
10%
0% Work at or from Public Transport Car or Van Motorcycle, Bicycle On foot Other home Scooter or Moped
Source: Census 2001, ONS Crown copyright reserved.
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8. Access to services
Aylesbury Vale ranked very poorly on a national measure of geographical accessibility of services (index of deprivation 2007).
Of the 112 super output areas in Aylesbury Vale, 26 (23%) are ranked in the worst 10% nationally and of these, 16 are ranked in the worst 5%
Access to services sub -domain of Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Aylesbury
Source: CLG IMD 2007, © Crown copyright. All rights reserved 100019797 2010
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People with limiting long term illness and with no access to private transport as % of all people with LLTI. with LLTI
England 36%
South East 30%
Buckinghamshire 24%
Aylesbury Vale 25%
Chiltern 22%
South Bucks 21%
Wycombe 25%
Source: ONS Census 2001 table S022 from nomis, Crown copyright reserved.
Some wards had much higher rates of people with LLTI without access to a car.
Wards in Aylesbury Vale with the highest rates of people with a limiting long term illness and with no access to private transport
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9. Health and Wellbeing Aylesbury Vale at a glance • The health of people in Aylesbury Vale is generally better than the England average. Deprivation is lower than average, however 3,925 children live in poverty.
• Life expectancy for men is higher than the England average. Life expectancy is 5.3 years lower for men and 4.8 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Aylesbury Vale than in the least deprived areas (based on the Slope Index of Inequality published on 5 th January 2011).
• Over the last 10 years, all cause mortality rates have fallen. Early death rates from cancer and from heart disease and stroke have also fallen and are better than the England average.
• About 15.0% of Year 6 children are classified as obese. A lower than average percentage of pupils spend at least three hours each week on school sport.
• An estimated 16.4% of adults smoke and 22.4% are obese. There were 2,118 hospital stays for alcohol related harm in 2009/10 and there are 210 deaths from smoking each year. Priorities in Aylesbury Vale include those outlined in Health Inequalities
The map overleaf shows differences in deprivation levels in this area based on local quintiles (of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 by Lower Super Output Area). The darkest coloured areas are the most deprived in this area.
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Source: Association of Public Health Observatories, online http://www.apho.org.uk/resource/
This chart shows the life expectancy at birth for males and females (2005-2009) for each of the quintiles in Aylesbury Vale.
Source: Association of Public Health Observatories, online http://www.apho.org.uk/resource/
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10. Community safety
Aylesbury Vale continues to be a relatively safe place to live. Rates of crime fell by 4% in 2009/10 compared to the previous year, remaining below the Thames Valley average.
• Aylesbury Vale had 32 British Crime Survey comparator offences per 1,000 population, below all the other districts in Buckinghamshire.
• Aylesbury Vale had the 5th lowest BCS crime rate in the Thames Valley area in 2009/10. The four areas with lower crime rates were; South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, West Oxfordshire and Wokingham UA.
Recorded crime BCS comparator offences per 1,000 population 07/08
Thames Valley Total 46
Aylesbury Vale 32
Wycombe 41
South Bucks 52
Chiltern 34
Source: Home Office r esearch statistics: Recorded crime BCS comparator 2008/09 to 2009/10
The Recorded crime BCS comparator is a sub set of recorded crimes which can be aligned to categories in the British Crime Survey. The following crimes are included in the recorded crime/BCS comparator measure: Theft of a vehicle, theft from a vehicle, vehicle interference and tampering, domestic burglary, theft of a pedal cycle, theft from a person, criminal damage, common assault, wounding and robbery (of personal property not business property). This set of crimes covers about 60% of all recorded crimes.
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Aylesbury Vale has consistently had one of the lowest crime rates per 1,000 population across Buckinghamshire for the last five years and has remained well below the average for the Thames Valley region.
Recorded crime BCS comparator offences per 1,000 population 2005/06 to 2009/10
Aylesbury Vale 80 Chiltern South Bucks 70 Wycombe Thames Valley Area 60
50
40
30
20 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Source: Home Office research statistics: Recorded crime BCS comparator 200 5/06 to 2009/10
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11. What our residents think
The top five things that residents thought made Aylesbury Vale a good place to live remained unchanged between the 2008 Place Survey and the 2009 Interim Place Survey.
In 2009 Health overtook crime as the most important factor.
Top five things that make Aylesbury Vale a good place to live
60% 2009 Interim Place Survey 50% 2008 Place Survey
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Health Services Crime Education Provision Affordable Decent Clean Streets Housing
Source: Place Survey and Interim Place Survey
The top five things that residents thought needed improving also remained unchanged between the 2008 Place Survey and the 2009 Interim Place Survey.
• In 2009 Pavement and road repair were asked as two separate questions.
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Top five things that need improving in Aylesbury Vale
60% 2009 Interim Place Survey 50% 2008 Place Survey
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Road Repairs Road & Traffic Activities for Pavement Public Transport Affordable Pavement Congestion Teenagers Repairs decent housing Repairs
Source: Place Survey and Interim Place Survey
Resident satisfaction with “...your local area as a place to live” has remained consistently above 80% for some time. • The survey in July 2010 shows the highest satisfaction rating. There may be a seasonal feel good factor that improves the levels of satisfaction during the summer months.
Level of satisfaction with your local area as a place to live
100% Satisfied Dissatisfied 88% 85% 87% 87% 82% 80%
60%
40%
20% 9% 10% 5% 5% 5%
0% Jul 10 Mar 10 Jan 10* Nov 09 Dec 08*
Source: AVDC regular satisfaction sur veys, place survey (*) and interim place survey results (*). Page 70 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack
Glossary- Bucks 10 ACORN Group Summary
1. Wealthy Mature Professionals - The household income of this group is extremely high and people from this group live in the very least deprived areas of Buckinghamshire and England. Their affluence and middle aged family profile may be linked to the importance they place on further education and secondary school education, where there is a strong engagement to attain qualifications. Public and private transport is important, with higher rates of car ownership and commuting by train/tube, but people are also more likely to work from home. People are less satisfied with transport issues than average. Interest in charity work is higher than average, as is their interest in health care, but lifestyle choices can be poor.
2. Villages with Wealthy Commuters - Located in rural areas, this group places importance on education, but has a slightly older age profile than average with marginally less children. Household incomes are high and overall deprivation levels are very low. People tend to be fairly active, pursuing outdoor and indoor activities. They value their health, but not all lifestyle choices are healthy. A variety of modes of transport and flexible home working are important to this group, even though car ownership rates are high.
3. Well-off Managers - Household income is very high and people live in the very least deprived areas of Buckinghamshire. Educational achievement is of particular significance, which can be seen in the educational services that their children use, and in the slightly lower proportion of adults without qualifications. Personal transport is important to this group who are also more likely to work from home. With one or two exceptions, people in this group make fairly healthy lifestyle and active leisure choices, which tends to reflect their average level of health.
4. Affluent Greys - This group is made up of higher proportions of middle aged and older people, with incomes which are higher than the UK average. These people tend to make healthy lifestyle choices whilst also pursuing healthy exercise related leisure interests. Although there are small proportions of households with children, the proportion (with children) that take-up educational support services is high, and the adults in this group are more likely to feel that education is important. This group is more likely to work from home.
5. Flourishing Families - With a slightly younger age profile, this group are more likely to need and choose to use education services. Their health, lifestyle choices and leisure activities tend to mirror the Buckinghamshire average. Income levels are slightly higher than average and overall deprivation is relatively low. Private transport and a variety of other modes of transport are important including car sharing.
6. Urban Professionals - These people are more likely to be young single adults that have completed their education. They live in areas of average income, but can experience some forms of deprivation, particularly relating to crime. Their
Page 71 of 73 Aylesbury Vale District Fact Pack predominately urban dwellings mean that they are more likely to live close to work, or to travel by public transport. This group is interested in leisure activities, and is also more likely to make some lifestyle choices that affect their health.
7. Secure Families - Education is important to this group, who have more very young children than average. Households are not economically deprived, or well off, but have fairly average incomes. People’s health is generally good, but a slightly larger proportion than average make poor lifestyle choices.
8. Settled Suburbia and Prudent Pensioners - People in this group experience more economic deprivation than average. They are more likely to make use of public transport, and experience health and social care issues, although they lead lifestyles that are only marginally less healthy than average. Adult education is important, perhaps because the group has higher proportions of single occupant households.
9. Moderate Means - People in this group experience more economic deprivation than average. They tend to feel that there are more social cohesion issues in their area, and are likely to have a greater need for education services (particularly for very young children and adults), although adults are less likely to be engaged with these services. They tend to have an average take-up of leisure services, lead less healthy lifestyles and have more health and social care issues. Local working and alternative means of transport to the car are very important for these people.
10. Hard Pressed - This group are economically deprived. They tend to feel that there are more social cohesion issues in their area, and are likely to have a greater need for education and related services - even though adults may not be fully engaged in these services. They tend to have a low, or average, take-up of leisure services and may place more demands on health or social services - whether through direct service take-up or through unhealthy lifestyle choices. Local working, public transport and other alternative means of transport are an important necessity for these people.
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References
• ACORN Ward Profile, Bucks County Council, 2010
• Aylesbury Vale District Council Housing Team, 2010
• AVDC Forward Plans Monitoring Systems, 2010
• AVDC regular satisfaction surveys, place survey
• DEFRA River Quality table, www.defra.gov.uk
• Hometrack Housing Intelligent Data, http://www.housingintelligence.co.uk/ 2011
• Home Office research statistics: Recorded crime BCS comparator 2008/09 to 2009/10
• Online National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp
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