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The GeopolitThe t In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Artsof Masters ofthe degree for requirements the of fulfilment partialIn o Partnership Supervisor: Professor AntonPelinka Professor Supervisor: i cs of :Fromcs of Rivalry Department of Department Central European University European Central

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CEU eTD Collection Bibliography Appendix Chapter4 Conclusion AnalysisChapter3 andResults Chapter2 U.S. Chapter1 I Acknowledgement Abstract 1.1 Literature 1.1 review Structure: 3.4 3.4 Consequencesthedealof Nuclear onU.S.theforeign policy inAzerbaijan 3.3 Futureperspective ofagreementon nuclearprogram Groups 3.2 supporting nuclearprogram Groups 3.1 2. 2. Historical 2.1 Background 1.3 Methodologyandmethod 1.2 Theo 3 U.S.2 2.3.2 Negotiation2.3.2 onprocessnuclear Iran's program 2.3.1 2.2. Security2.2.2 Diplomacy Energy2.2.1 Diplomacy 1.2.2 Content1.3.1 analysis

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, the U.S has been involved in the democratization process and economic developments developments economic and process democratization the in involved been has U.S the , crucial role. crucialrole. interest in the region. While the strategic importance of th of importance strategic the While region. the in interest Location of the South Caucasus in the periphery of Russia, Turkey and Iran Iran and TurkeyRussia, of periphery inthe Caucasus South the of Location f ar and comparatively new, non new, comparativelyand ar blocks to the fight against international terrorism international against fight the to main powers and became active in the political affairs of the region. region. the of affairs political the in active became and powers main , it was not a major concern in the making of U.S. policy until until policy U.S. of making the in concern major a not was it ,

of the p the of Introduction Chapter rosecution of the global war on terrorism. terrorism. on war global the of rosecution 1

- traditional actor in this region paralleled to to paralleled regionin this actor traditional - 1990s, energy affairs became a reason of of reason a became affairs energy 1990s, 1

d Turkey. Although the U.S. U.S. the Although Turkey. d e South Caucasus had been been had Caucasus South e Furthermore, Furthermore,

made the South Caucasus Caucasus South the made the

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. is which country a region, Caucasus South integration of Azerbaijan into the international community as communityinternational the into Azerbaijan of integration of the US in the Caucasus the in US the of - Iran affect relations - Ukraine oaas we the when Nowadays, in particular in ? According to Congressman Dan Burton CongressmanDan to According

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government of Azerbaijan tried Azerbaijan of government United States. At same the States. Unitedtime First Secretary of the Azerbaijan Communist Party of the AzerbaijanSSR AzerbaijanPartyofSecretary the Communist First the of over Nagorno Karabakh Nagorno over st be represented” (Marx, 2014), and this was the same approach approach same the was this and 2014), (Marx, represented” be st - the humanized, antidemocratic, backward, barbaric, and so so and barbaric, backward, antidemocratic, humanized, Soviet Empire, Soviet 13 ,

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Washington also criticized the presidential election in Azerbaijan in 2013. In In 2013. in Azerbaijan in election presidential the criticized also Washington Moreover, Moreover, Baku - chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. Group. Minsk OSCE the chair of

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a stable country among the former Soviet republics, also also republics, Soviet former the among country stable a 5 er, fe te sai rvlto o 17, the 1979, of revolution Islamic the after years, 35

such development of relations, and the official visit of of visit official the and relations, of development such 21

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of the per the of In the following sub following the In

leader of the Islamic World. Such situation contributed to the emergence the to contributed situation Such World. Islamic the of leader curity and international peace. However, another reason of such hostile relations was was relations hostile such of reason another However, peace. international and curity

the president president the With

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of the theocratic hostile regime which was seen as a threat to the U.S. the to threat a as seen was which regime hostile theocratic the of in this country became Hassan Rouhani. Hassan became country inthis hostile relations between Iran and the U.S. and then following with the the with following then and U.S. the and Iran between relations hostile rna ncerporm between program nuclear Iranian Iranian assets inU assets Iranian - the the chapters chapters

f rna ol Te otgs ee eesd fe a e minutes few a after released were hostages The oil. Iranian of The United States imposed economic sanctions against Iran and and Iran against sanctions economic imposed States United The replacement of replacement U . S . - Iran relations Iran .

S sn o te eiie worsening decisive the for ason 22 . the the

banks were frozen and the Carter administration Carter the frozenand bankswere

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ing Soviet intervention However, inthis Afghanistan. kind ing Soviet administrations tried to put Tehran under control, using using control, under Tehran put to tried administrations became relatively stable. There were specific areas of of areas specific were There stable. relatively became - communism, communism, The m The Despite the fact that U.S. econo U.S. that fact the Despite 23 ain desire of the American ruling circl ruling American the of desire ain

its energy reserves, the direction of oil and gas gas and oil of direction the reserves, energyits - western Shah Pahlavi in 1979 1979 in Pahlavi Shah western

and and to European countries. Consequently countries. European to With t With

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the Iranian nuclear issue nuclear Iranian the

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(2014)

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the “Big Six” and Iran and Six” “Big the the "Big Six" and Iran signed an agreement on the Iranian Iranian the on agreement an signed Iran and Six" "Big iiig alsi msie use. missiles ballistic limiting

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Analysis and Analysis the

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the Chapter

nuclear prog nuclear analysis reveals the fact that that fact the reveals analysis analysis of analysis 26

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parameters parameters 27

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Despite the fact that Iran and Despitefact the the that ontent ontent those who are really skeptical are who those ,

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for could achieve agreement. achieve could prepared a billrequiring a prepared mation confirming that Iran in all aspects complies complies aspects all in Iran that confirming mation 29

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the fact that there is quite a lot of skepticism about the Iranian nuclear program, program, nuclear Iranian the about skepticism of lot a quite is there that fact the

providing by far Europe’s demand for natural gas and oil, respectively 29% and and 29% respectively oil,and natural gas for demand Europe’s far providingby Muslim he Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain called the U the called Bahrain ofAffairs Foreign of Ministerhe Although

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future that such problems can be resolved through peaceful means in order to avoid new new avoid to order in means peaceful through resolved be can problems such that future However, it is important to take into account the fact that even if both parties achieve a achieve parties both if even that fact the account into take to important is it However, the

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Iran has 10% of world oil reserves and 20% of world gas gas world of 20% and reserves oil world of 10% has Iran and cooperation with Islamic Republic of Iran. of Republic Islamic with cooperation and

ok the took 38 is

elected from elected

James Baker who was former secretary of of secretary former was who Baker James

the edn pstos in positions leading those who were involved in the research research the in involved were who those , 2015 ,

current foreign policy advisor of 2016 2016 of advisor policy foreign current toe f hs agreeme this of utcome . Though it is not known yet how yet known not is it Though . the the relations between relations However Republican Party as a new a as Party Republican . the Barack Obama Obama Barack the , Some experts think think experts Some again, back to the to back again, and Nonetheless, t to nt the United United the

of oil and and oil of Benjamin Benjamin

the

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full capacity after after fullcapacity

Its geographical location is in in islocationgeographical Its

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Russia and Iran, becoming the only world power power world only the becoming Iran, and Russia uncement of agreement on April 2 led to to led 2 April on agreement of uncement 39

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the financial and economic situation of the country. All this can have Allcan this country. the situationof financial economic and the at the level the at ,

y of Azerbaijan) is the evidence of the occurrence of the economic crisis in in crisis economic the of occurrence the of evidence the is Azerbaijan) of y 1.1 million during the period of sanctions (2015:1). sanctions of period the during million 1.1 before tougher sanctions tougher before a very good reason for Azerbaijan to bring its Caspian oil and gas to world to gas and oil Caspian its bring to Azerbaijan for reason good very

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rces an rces Iran exported 2.5 million 2.5 exported Iran 40

the the The recent devaluation of the Azerbaijani manat Azerbaijani the of devaluation recent The militaryIran,bridgehead Russiaand against set Azerbaijani’s state budget for 2015 with 2015 for budget state Azerbaijani’s set

apoiaey 35 o te tt bde is budget state the of 53.5% approximately , d serious irregularities in public in irregularities serious d Iranian nuclear puzzle may reduce strategic strategic reduce may puzzle nuclear Iranian Despite the fact that Azerbaijani that fact the Despite Initially the U Initiallythe devalued manat by 35% and and 35% by manat devalued

barrels per day, day, per barrels

(2014)

.S. preferred to solvethe preferred to .S. Such developments Such try’s economy. - , hostili , eore sectors. resources . the Moreover investments ty between between ty a oil factor. oil while the the while very bad very th experts experts e U.S. U.S. as it it as The The can , an an

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of the abovementioned projects projects abovementioned the of the . According to Freedom House, Azerbaijan is considered as a “not free” “not a as considered isAzerbaijan House, Freedom to According future role of Azerbaijan as main energy supplier of Europe. Europe. of supplier energy main as Azerbaijan of role future udmna dmcai fedm ms b gu be must freedoms democratic fundamental

will ch will contribute to ending to willchcontribute s

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n ipeetto o sm mjr nrsrcue and infrastructure major some of implementation and a consolidated authoritarian regime. authoritarianregime. consolidated erbaijan itself? T itself?erbaijan

All thesedevelopments All 41 s between Iran and the U.S. has between U.S. s theIran and

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decreased in instability political further a cause may which population, Ilham Aliyev, Ilham

threat of threat 42 unavoidable

the President Azerbaijan President the

s the as

the war towards Armenia. towards war South Caucasus region, region, Caucasus South . the A reduction in salaries will worsen worsen will salaries in reduction A .. and U.S. Declining the world oil prices prices oil world the Declining Iran can be changing changing be can Iran Republic, shows that shows Republic, If earlier particularly - Karabakh. Ilham Ilham the the

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hc ws agr ote .. ainl euiy n international and security national U.S. the to danger was which when Washington was willing to use military force against the the against force military use to willing was Washington when identify the consequences of consequences the identify preliminary t oblem he in 2012 six international mediators started talks with Iran in Iran with talks started mediators international six 2012 in Conclusion Chapter nuclear problem nuclear .

a S itga pr o the of part integral n tates which l which tates will will agreement reached between Iran and the “Big Six” “Big the and Iran between reached agreement 43

bring (1) (1) . the First of all, it will mainly affect the U the affect mainly will it all, of First

However, it was never realized and realized never was it However, 4 changes in the world politics. politics. world the in changes consequences of the normalization of of normalization the of consequences asted approximately 35 years 35 approximately asted (2) (2)

tions between Iran and the U.S. was U.S. betweentheIran and tions

the which resulted in resulted which how these processes would affect affect would processesthese how

American

American foreign policy. policy. foreign American - Iranian Nuclear deal deal Nuclear Iranian

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take other measures against Iran. Iran has complied has Iran Iran. against measures other take might Putin’s Putin’s Presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani will will Rouhani Hassan and Obama Barack Presidents likely

30, 2015. 2015. 30, the

have a negative impact on the democratization process in Azerbaijan in process democratization the on impact negative a have the the regime. economy is entirely dependent on oil. on dependent entirely is economy parties will not partiesnot will

untry. (2) (2) Regarding its impact on Azerbaijan, on impact its Regarding oee, omlzto o American of normalization However, reach a final agreement. However,final ifreachU.S. not, the aagreement. do they 44

.

of Iran to the world energy markets markets energy world the to Iran of This, in turn, turn, in This, might with all terms of the agreement agreement the of terms all with attempt

there are both positive and and positive both are there cause more cooperative with cooperative more - might adversely might Iranian relations will will relations Iranian

have been used as an an as used been have

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an i n

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AppendixA is

nly enrich uranium at the Natanz nlyuraniumthe withonlyenrich 5,060 IR facility, at - thirds of Fordow’sinfrastructurethirdswillcentrifuges of andremoved. Thebe remaining

The FrameworkThe for aJoint Comprehensive Planof onAction Iran'sNuclear Program –

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years. facilityitis so that peacefulfor used only purposes

Availableat

- 45

thirds its installeditsthirds fromcentrifuges. Iran will go

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an’s development or an’sor development

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