The Context 16th September 2019

1 The Context Inside this week’s edition…

A Feast of Central Banks China Insight: RRR Cut Reinforces Our Bullish View on CGBs - by Marcus Dewsnap, p3 - by Tim Cheung and Riki Zhang, p11-12 The ECB decision impacts other central banks. Most directly, the SNB who The RRR cut reinforces our bullish view on China government bonds, but it is possible that a downside test of 2.85% will not occur till we see the 3rd LPR fixing gather (Thursday). ECB easing also provides the Fed with some space given the on 20 October. Currently, CGB 10-year yield is at 3.04%. Eurozone economy is one of the FOMC’s concerns. A 25bp cut is fully priced.

Know The Flows: Outflows The Rule For Europe Funds Ahead of ECB’s Decision to Restart Quantitative Easing - by Cameron Brandt, p13 The NOK Week – Bias is Neutral to Bullish With speculation about the measures the European Central Bank (ECB) would - by Mark Mitchell, p4-5 take at its September policy meeting ranging widely, EPFR-tracked Europe Equity, Bond and Money Market Funds all experienced net redemptions during the week Eur/Nok dipped to 9.8736 in the early exchanges as the market reacted to the ending September 11. spike in oil prices after the weekend's attack on a Saudi oil facility that will remove 5% of global supplies. The pair has quickly returned to 9.9250/9300, US/UK 10yr Spread – Risk to 84.5/90.3 While 115.8 Caps with the market looking ahead to Thursday's Norges Bank meeting. - by Ed Blake, p15 Sell into near-term corrective gains as we await renewed narrowing targeting the 84.5/90.3 support zone. Place a protective stop above the 126.1 lower high. Euro Corp Comment: A Few Signs of Indigestion But The ECB Provides More Comfort - by Matthew Barrett, p6-7 It was another busy week for the euro investment grade corporate market in GBP/USD – Bulls Mount Stand Ahead of The 2016 Low - by Andrew Dowdell, p16 the w/e 13th September where EUR12.15bn hit the tape courtesy of 20 Gains above 1.2582 are needed to suggest wider basing. Failure to hold separate tranches. September’s 1.1959 low should quickly see a re-test of the 2016 low at 1.1841, then lower.

Weak Global Growth Environment May Weigh Greater on CE3s in H2 Palladium – New Record Highs, Scope to 1658.20/1684.20 - by Natalie Rivett, p8-10 - by Ed Blake, p17 This year has been characterised by slowing economic activity against a backdrop Buy into any near-term dips as we await new record highs targeting 1658.20, of rising geopolitical tensions, lingering Brexit-related uncertainty and, of course, perhaps 1684.20/1718.86. Place a stop under 1519.49. the ongoing US-China trade war.

2 2 A Feast of Central Banks By Marcus Dewsnap, IGM Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The ECB decision impacts other central banks. Most directly, the SNB who gather (Thursday). ECB easing also provides the FED with some space given the Eurozone economy is one of the Dec19 EUROSWISS now implies -81bp versus -75bp official rate and CHF OIS is -70bp in Sep and FOMC’s concerns. A 25bp cut is fully priced (Tuesday-Wednesday) and the meeting comes with -85bp in Oct. the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), hence, the Committee’s outlook receives an airing in numbers. Market-based inflation expectations are still too low for comfort – 10-year BREAKEVEN at 1.62% - and other headwinds have not eased (despite the talk about trade talks and some pullback from the precipice regarding the US-China trade imbroglio). Powell holds a presser and Rosengren speaks (Friday). Latter is against rate cuts. What will be interesting with Powell are comments on the cyclical high core-CPI (sustainability) and ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ (short versus long set of rate cuts). Of course, he doesn’t talk about the Dollar per se, but a stronger currency does tighten financial conditions (therefore justifying a rate cut?). The BoJ (Wednesday-Thursday) is expected to leave its policy rates on hold, despite talk of a cut. Recent focus has been on arresting the slide in yields and the flattening yield curve. Governor Kuroda recently said that bringing interest rates further into negative territory is always an option and that the CB is considering combinations of the four policy tools (cutting short-term policy rate, lowering 10yr yield target, increasing asset purchases and increasing expansion of monetary base) as well as improved versions of these tools. That said, BoJ officials have been concerned about the negative impact of bringing rates further into negative territory and how asset purchases have distorted the JGB market. Main policy moves going forward are expected to revolve around purchase tweaks at their regular JGB purchase operation. The NORGES BANK is projected to hike for the last time in this cycle as the rate path is expected to be lowered to flat. Capacity utilization issues create a risk that this isn’t the last rate increase and CPI is forecast to accelerate back towards target. The BoE (Thursday) isn’t likely to change policy given the ever so muddy waters. It is also unlikely to change its tightening bias, unless its central scenario of an orderly Brexit changes, but watch the statement (no presser) for comments on the impact of the Brexit process. On this, note the This suggests the market is biased towards a 10bp rate cut, but not entirely sure. SNB sight ongoing legal case against the Government for proroguing Parliament, the EU’s Barnier saying deposits (Monday) will be of interest too given FX intervention is the preferred policy tool. there is no reason currently to grant the UK an extension beyond October 31 and reports that the DUP maybe prepared to let Northern Ireland keep some EU rules which might help unlock the Irish Backstop hurdle. PM Johnson will probably be in constant communication with EU peers (when he isn’t defending proroguing). GBP/USD implied volatility has fallen recently.

This is an excerpt from Marcus’ Week Ahead. For the full piece see HERE. Back to Index Page 3 The NOK Week - Bias is Neutral to Bullish By Mark Mitchell, Senior FX Analyst

continued page 5

Back to Index Page 4 The NOK Week – cont’d

Expected EUR/NOK trading range is: 9.8200-9.9600

Eur/Nok dipped to 9.8736 in the early exchanges as the market reacted to the spike in oil prices after the weekend's attack on a Saudi oil facility that will remove 5% of global supplies.

The pair has quickly returned to 9.9250/9300, with the market looking ahead to Thursday's Norges Bank meeting. As you can see from the top, left pane of the above dashboard, the Nok remains the clear loser of the G10 currency bloc in the past three months, despite the Norges Bank's rate hike cycle.

Nordea have gone short of Eur/Nok aiming for 9.8000, as they still expect a hike on Thursday, despite last week's CPI and the regional network survey showing possible peaks. They also expect a slight hiking bias in the rate path, which will leave the Norges Bank more inclined to hike rates than cut ahead.

While we think the Norges Bank decision is a coin toss, recent price action shows that the Krone has not been helped by the fact that the central bank has been bucking the global trend and has hiked rates, so we are not confident that a hike on Thursday will change sentiment materially.

Tech analysis: • Declined from 10.0708 (29 August high) to reach 9.8294 (12 September low), before ranging under 9.9595 (13 September high) • Studies are stable and above 9.9595 suggests the broader uptrend is resuming for 10.0708 then 10.0969 (2019 peak - 7 August) • Only below 9.8294 dampens and risks 9.7799-9.7710 (61.8% retrace of 9.5840/10.0969 and 200-dma)

RISKS - If the Norges Bank stands pat, the market may assume that their tightening cycle is over.

Back to Index Page 5 Euro Corp Comment: A Few Signs of Indigestion But The ECB Provides More Comfort By Matthew Barrett, Senior Analyst

It was another busy week for the euro IG corporate market in the w/e 13th September where EUR12.15bn hit the tape courtesy of 20 separate tranches. Whilst that was a decent haul, it was still almost less than half the previous week's EUR23.05bn haul which marked the highest volume total on record for the asset class.

As expected, the majority of primary market activity came at the start of the week as issuers front-loaded ahead of the latest ECB verdict on Thursday which saw the central bank delve into its toolbox and announce an open-ended fresh QE programme of EUR20bn per month from 1- Nov alongside the expected 10bp deposit rate cut.

That resulted in risk-assets rallying on Thursday afternoon and in particular saw credit spreads tighten considerably with participants knowing that the central bank's crutch is to remain in place for a prolonged period of time.

In terms of the week's issuance, some signs of indigestion were starting to show as markets try to absorb the jumbo EUR53.6bn of euro IG corporate paper seen since the market re-opened after the summer break.

Across the deals where book sizes were communicated, the average cover ratio dropped to 2.38x from 2.61x the previous week and marked the lowest weekly reading of the year. That comes with investors perhaps being a bit more discerning following the recent deluge of supply and not just throwing cash at everything that comes out.

With demand for the bonds shrinking slightly, that resulted in issuers being less aggressive in In turn, the less robust spread compression resulted in the average NIC creeping up with the the execution stage and not tightening pricing as much from IPTs to reoffer. The average 9.6bps figure also the highest since the last week of May. That came despite Coca-Cola spread compression during the week slipped to 18.7bps which is the lowest since the w/e European Partners and EDP managing to print paper through and flat to fair value respectively. 31st May. That average drops further to a shade over 18bps if you discount the longest 10yr trade of Dassault's well-received debut EUR3.65bn four-part, which was ramped in 30bps continued page 7 during the execution process.

Back to Index Page 6 Euro Corp Comment – cont’d

However, the latest ECB stimulus package has given the market another shot in the arm and In the secondary market, all of the week's trades were trading inside their respective reoffers should keep conditions attractive for borrowers. Kerry Group certainly appeared to find on Friday having received a boost on Thursday afternoon, with the higher-beta EUR500m investors receptive, where the borrower wasted no time diving in post-ECB and attracted PNC7.5 hybrid deal from Orange seen outperforming. The trade was bid an eye-catching 17bps demand of over EUR2.6bn for its EUR750m 10yr on Friday. tighter than its m/s +218 landing point on Friday morning.

Looking ahead, and following the sharp tightening in secondary spreads, we could see another active week for the European corporate market this week as issuers make the most of favourable conditions and secure cheap funding.

However, after the glut of issuance seen since the summer break and over the year in general, how many borrowers actually need to raise cash is probably not that high whilst corporates will be wary of printing at low rates for the sake of it.

One of those which is expected to come with a euro bond is PostNL which wrapped up a roadshow last week, whilst Wintershall Dea and ITV may also go live in the single currency.

Other than that trio though the euro pipeline is empty after last week's flurry of deals emptied it out, meaning opportunistic issuance will have to be plentiful if we are to maintain the frenetic pace seen since the summer break came to an end. Headline event risk in the form of the latest BoE and FOMC verdicts could also minimise the optimum issuance window.

Back to Index Page 7 Weak Global Growth Environment May Weigh Greater on CE3s in H2 By Natalie Rivett, Senior EM Analyst

continued page 9 Back to Index Page For the full viewpoint, please click HERE. 8 Weak Global Growth Environment May Weigh Greater on CE3s in H2 - cont’d

The global cycle has turned, putting an end to the strong growth of 2017 and early 2018 There are, however, still some bright spots in Europe, courtesy of the CE3s, which although not immune to the global slowdown, continued to enjoy impressive levels of growth in Q2 given the This year has been characterised by slowing economic activity against a backdrop of rising weakness in the Eurozone. On balance growth surprised to the upside in the first half of the year, geopolitical tensions, lingering Brexit-related uncertainty and, of course, the ongoing US-China trade supported by domestic demand that is helping to offset the noticeable slowdown in the Eurozone. war that escalated further at the beginning of the month, when the US slapped tariffs on roughly USD110bn of Chinese imports. For Poland, while the growth rate has come down from levels above 5% y/y in 2018, the economy still grew by around 4.5% in the first half of 2019; whilst Hungary saw a surprisingly high growth rate GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, have pointed to weaker- of 5.3% y/y in Q1, and even with a slowdown in the following three months, H1 growth managed to than-anticipated global activity, and concerns over the health of the global economy have been a hold above the 5% mark. Czech Republic growth rates are less impressive by comparison, but have key driver of demand for safe haven assets. No more apparent are these concerns than in the nonetheless shown resilience so far this year, holding above 2.5% (see the dashboard). inversion of the US yield curve, which has historically been the most consistent recession indicator. Helping to keep domestic demand growing at a healthy pace in the region is a combination of tight Just this week, Fitch revealed that it has slashed its growth forecasts for the US, China and the labour markets and solid wage growth, whilst fiscal policy has also been loose in Poland and Eurozone, with protectionist policies seen choking GDP prospects across the globe. Hungary, and has been combined with accommodative monetary policy, particularly in the latter.

• China's growth rate is now expected to fall to 6.1% in 2019 and 5.7% in 2020, down from 6.2% The supportive monetary policy backdrop within the CE3 has added to the attractiveness of CE3 and 6.0%, respectively government bonds this year, in an increasingly dovish environment and even with negative yields on offer, it is perhaps unsurprising that ytd, the cumulative net inflows to Poland, Hungary and the • US growth forecasts have been lowered to 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020 compared to 2.4% and Czech Republic have outstripped that of all EM focused bond funds (see the dashboard). 1.8% respectively, in June

• Eurozone growth is now forecast at 1.1% in both 2019 and 2020 compared to 1.2% for 2019 and 1.3% for 2020 in June External backdrop may well take a greater toll on CEE economies

The CE3 region has relatively low direct exports to China compared to other Emerging Markets, notably in South-East Asia and LatAm. Yet, the region can still be indirectly impacted by US-China CE3 remains a bright spot within Europe, but not immune to the global slowdown trade war effects via Germany, which is the most important export partner for many European countries and is already feeling the pressure of tougher global trade conditions. The Eurozone economy barely grew at all in Q2 on q/q basis (see the dashboard) as economies across the bloc lost steam and that of the largest member, Germany, contracted (-0.1% q/q), in a reflection of the dire situation in manufacturing, which has been hit by the trade war-induced softening of international trade. continued page 10

Back to Index Page 9 CE3s – cont’d

This was no less evident than in the July manufacturing PMIs, with Germany's slump deeper into Little scope for any fiscal and monetary policy support contraction (to a record low 43.2) followed by a broadly weaker performance from the CEE. Notably, Hungary's PMI print slumped to a 3-year low (albeit, still comfortably above the 50 boom-bust Against this backdrop, there seems to be little space left in Poland and Hungary for any further divide), Poland's to a 6-year low and that for the Czech Republic to a 10-year trough. fiscal support. The former, which has already pledged a multi-billion Zloty plan of additional spending and reliefs ahead of the parliamentary elections next month, is now ambitiously August proved a mildly better month for manufacturing all round, per the PMIs (see the proposing the country's first balanced central government budget in three decades in 2020, in an dashboard), and whilst we could see some more reprieve in the near-term via a boost to attempt to boost its reputation for economic management. Additionally, Hungary will really need sentiment on potential monetary policy easing from the Fed, on top of the ECB this month, it is to tighten fiscal policy, despite slowing economic growth, as the government seeks to make unlikely to be anything more than temporary. This is because the US and China still appear far progress towards its medium-term objective of a structural deficit of 1%/GDP from 2020. from reaching a trade deal (talks to resume next month), whilst later in 2019 and in 2020, it is the end of the cycle in the US that will likely drive the global slowdown, adding a new dimension to Meanwhile, with inflation in the Czech Republic and Poland close to the upper limit of central global growth pressures. bank tolerance bands, there is currently little room for monetary stimulus. In Hungary, inflation has been on a downward trajectory in recent months and with underlying measures hovering So, whilst domestic demand is expected to remain supportive for CEE economies, we would around target, though even here, the relatively high risks stemming from external factors would suggest the external backdrop will become increasingly challenging and may well start to take a favour the continuation of a wait and see approach. A stronger than expected global growth bigger toll on the region's growth into year-end and potentially beyond. slowdown and the resultant feed-through of disinflationary pressures would, however, tilt the balance of risks towards rate cuts, rather than hikes as the next policy move. According to the most recent central bank forecasts, growth is already seen slowing notably this year and the next in Poland and Hungary, and is expected to be more stable in the Czech Republic, as listed below. A stronger global growth slowdown than currently anticipated could pose downside risks to these projections.

• Poland 4.5% 2019 & 4.0% in 2020, from 5.1% in 2018

• Hungary 4.3% & 3.3% in 2019 and 2020, from 4.9% in 2018

• Czech Republic 2.6% and 2.9%, from 2.9% in 2018

Back to Index Page 10 China Insight: RRR Cut Reinforces Our Bullish View on CGBs By Tim Cheung, Head of China, Riki Zhang EM Analyst

PBOC on 6 September announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all financial institutions by 50bps and a cut for some city commercial banks by an additional 100bps, effective on 16 September. As per PBOC, the RRR cut will release liquidity to the amount of CNY900bn (chart 1). The PBOC stressed that the 900 billion yuan of liquidity should enhance the source of funds for financial institutions to support financing needs of the real economy. China's RRR cut further confirmed monetary easing is underway. We expect the loan prime rate (LPR) will fall further by as much as 10bp in the next fixing on 20 September (chart 2). Meanwhile, the PBOC policy rate, i.e. medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, will likely be trimmed by as much as 20bps twice by end of this year. A cut in the benchmark deposit and lending rates is also possible in Q4, but less certain than the MLF rate, if we see a sustained fall in the LPR fixing on 20 September and subsequently 20 October.

Accommodative monetary stance is favourable for rates and duration exposure. Recall, we provided our bullish view on China government bonds in the 21 August issue of this publication (here). continued page 12

Back to Index Page 11 China Insight – cont’d

"We are bullish on China government bonds and expect CGB 10-year yield will reach 2.85% before the National Day on 1 October". The RRR cut reinforces the above view, but it is possible that a downside test of 2.85% will not occur till we see the 3rd LPR fixing on 20 October. Currently, CGB 10-year yield is at 3.04% (chart 3).

Back to Index Page 12 Know The Flows: Outflows The Rule For Europe Funds Ahead of ECB’s Decision to Restart Quantitative Easing By Cameron Brandt, Director, Research

With speculation about the measures the European Central Bank (ECB) would take at its September policy meeting ranging widely, EPFR-tracked Europe Equity, Bond and Money Market Funds all experienced net redemptions during the week ending September 11. For Europe Equity Funds it was the 11th consecutive outflow and 35th in the 37 weeks year-to-date while Europe Bond Funds saw their longest inflow streak on record come to an end.

With slowing economic growth and political instability in the UK, Italy and Spain underpinning the aggressive package of measures unveiled by the ECB, investors looked to the US where positive interest rates, sub-4% unemployment and 2% GDP growth are still on offer. Flows into US Equity Funds jumped to a 12-week high and US Bond Funds extended their current inflow streak to 35 weeks and $305 billion.

Anticipating that US interest rates will follow Eurozone ones lower, albeit not into negative territory, fixed income investors steered fresh money into Emerging Markets Bond Funds for the third straight week and drove flows into High Yield Bond Funds to an 11-week high. Overall, EPFR- tracked Equity and Bond Funds took in $14.4 billion and $5.4 billion respectively during the seven days ending Sept. 11, with Alternative Funds absorbing $1.6 billion and Money Market Funds posting modest outflows.

At the single country and asset class fund levels, Singapore Bond Funds set a new weekly inflow record and France Equity Funds an outflow record, flows into China Equity Funds climbed to an 11-week high and Italy Equity Funds recorded their biggest inflow since 4Q15. Inflation Protected Bond Funds saw their longest run of inflows in over a year come to an end while redemptions from Bank Loan Funds dropped to their lowest level since the last week of February.

Financial Sector Funds posted their biggest inflow since mid-3Q18 and Technology Sector Funds took in fresh money for the third time in the past four weeks during the week ending September 11 as sector-oriented investors exhibited a modest increase in their appetite for risk. Gold Funds, meanwhile, saw inflows drop to an eight-week low and both Consumer Goods and Utility Sector Funds experienced net redemptions.

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IGM 14 US/UK 10yr Spread – Risk to 84.5/90.3 While 115.8 Caps

Technical Analysis by Ed Blake

• Accelerated the 10-month narrowing trend to 95.8 (2019 low – 5 September, near a 12- month Head and Shoulders top target), before bouncing

• However, gains are viewed as corrective and while the 113.7/115.8 barrier caps, watch for renewed narrowing

• Sub 95.8 risks 84.5-90.3 zone (equality target, 2018 low and six-year rising trendline), under which signals new 34-month lows

• Only over the 113.7/115.8 barrier would offer further relief to the 126.1 lower high – which should hold

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STRATEGY SUMMARY Resistance Levels R5 152.0 2019 peak - 12 February Sell into near-term corrective gains as we await renewed narrowing targeting the 84.5/90.3 R4 147.2 21 March 2019 high, near 2 April 2019 peak at 147.0 support zone. Place a protective stop above the 126.1 lower high R3 142.4 30 July 2019 lower high R2 126.1 9 August 2019 high R1 115.8 19 June 2019 former low, near 19 August 2019 minor lower high at 113.7 Support Levels S1 95.8 2019 low - 5 September, near a former 12-month head and shoulders top target at 96.3 S2 88.6 2017 low – 25 September, near a six-year rising trendline at 90.3 S3 84.5 Equality projection of 173.7/115.8 fall from 142.4 S4 78.6 11 November 2016 low S5 70.8 1.236 projection of 173.7/115.8 fall from 142.4

Back to Index Page 15 GBP/USD – Bulls Mount Stand Ahead of The 2016 Low Technical Analysis by Andrew Dowdell

• Key weekly reversal bar is in place following last week’s sharp bounce from 1.1959

• Proximity of the 2016 low at 1.1841, coupled with the recent weekly Stochastics bullish cross, strengthens

______STRATEGY SUMMARY Resistance Levels R5 1.3381 13 March 2019 high Gains above 1.2582 are needed to suggest wider basing. Failure to hold September’s 1.1959 low R4 1.3220 200-Week MA (approx.) should quickly see a re-test of the 2016 low at 1.1841, then lower. R3 1.3185 6 May 2019 high R2 1.2784 25 June 2019 high R1 1.2582 15 July 2019 high Support Levels S1 1.1959 3 September 2019 low, near the 16 January 2017 low at 1.1986 S2 1.1841 7 October 2016 low S3 1.1702 .50x 1.7192-1.1841 fall projected off 1.4377 S4 1.1445 1x 1.4377-1.2441 fall projected off 1.3381 S5 1.1070 .618x 1.7192-1.1841 fall projected off 1.4377

Back to Index Page 16 Palladium – New Record Highs, Scope to 1658.20/1684.20

Technical Analysis by Ed Blake

• Extends the long-term uptrend via 1384.03 (2 August higher low) to new record highs over 1614.88 (21 March peak)

• Bullish studies suggest upside potential to Fibonacci projections at 1658.20-1684.20, perhaps an equality target at 1718.86

• Any near-term dips should hold 1519.49 (6 September low) and only below cautions for 1456.88 (23 August higher low)

______STRATEGY SUMMARY Buy into any near-term dips as we await new record highs targeting 1658.20, perhaps Resistance Levels 1684.20/1718.86. Place a stop under 1519.49 R5 1797.88 1.236 projection of 1267.78/1602.61 rally from 1384.03 R4 1750.34 .618 projection of 834.04/1614.88 rally from 1267.78 R3 1718.86 Equality projection of 1267.78/1602.61 rally from 1384.03 R2 1684.20 1.236 projection of 451.85/1139.68 from 834.04 R1 1658.20 .5 projection of 834.04/1614.88 rally from 1267.78 Support Levels S1 1519.49 6 September 2019 low S2 1456.88 23 August 2019 minor higher low S3 1424.80 Supportive 200DMA S4 1384.03 2 August 2019 reaction low, near 30 May 2019 former high at 1380.60 S5 1312.18 3 June 2019 higher low

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