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Industry Trends and Performance: a Global View

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Industry Trends and Performance: a Global View © 2018 jwc gmbh Industry Trends and Performance: A Global View Jochen Witt www.jwc.eu.com Based in Germany and Hong Kong, jwc has clients in most of the important trade fair countries across the globe www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 2 April 2018 We provide services to the complete range of stakeholders in the Trade Fair Industry Venues Venue/ Organizer Organizers Government organizations Service Providers Associations Private Equity www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 3 April 2018 Agenda Setting the stage Global Industry trends jwc’s Global Exhibition Industry Survey Industry performance INFORMA / UBM Summary www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 4 April 2018 Revenues in the trade fair industry have grown at stable levels Trade fair industry growth and global GDP, turnover of Top 40, 2007-2016 Turnover Global GDP bn €* US$ tr** CAGR Top 40: +4.3 % +4.5 % 10.6 140 11 10.2 10 9.6 8.9 8.8 120 9 3.6 8.0 3.6 8 7.5 7.6 3.1 100 7.2 2.8 7 6.8 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 80 6 2.0 5 60 4 6.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 40 3 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.0 4.8 2 20 1 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Global GDP Non-venue owners Venue owners and organizers with own venue * Source: Company reports, jwc research, jwc estimates; including turnover from services, venue management and other live events ** Source: IMF, GDP (PPP) valuation of country GDP www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 5 April 2018 IMF expects that only six of 192 economies will fail to grow in 2018 -0.9 +0.6 GDP* %-age growth forecasts – Comparing Oct. 2016 Oct. 2017 7.6 -0.1 6.7 6.8 6.2 5.3 5.2 China India Indonesia +0.9 +0.3 +0.6 +0.7 +0.7 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.8 Spain France Italy Germany Russia -0.1 +0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 South Africa Nigeria Oct. 2016 forecast Oct. 2017 forecast is better +/-0 -0.2 +0.2 Oct. 2017 forecast is worse 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 Negative growth forecast in Oct. 2017 0.5 0.7 Difference in %-age points USA Brazil Argentina Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2016 and 2017; *GDP in real terms (base year 2010) www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 6 April 2018 A long lasting trade war would constitute a major risk for the global economy A trade war is good and easy to win PROTECTIONISM GLOBALIZATION www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 7 April 2018 My button is much bigger than yours www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 8 April 2018 © 2018 jwc gmbh Policy of the Central Banks of doing „whatever it takes“ resulting in overvalued assets and high risk taking www.jwc.eu.com Agenda Setting the stage Global Industry trends jwc’s Global Exhibition Industry Survey Industry performance INFORMA / UBM Summary www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 10 April 2018 Emerging markets are the growth drivers of our industry* Net rented space in major economies, Index 2007=100 179 +6.7% USA 27.8 180 170 +5.7% 164 China 12.1 160 158 +5.2% 150 Germany 7.6 140 France 4.2 130 120 Italy 3.6 +1.2% 110 112 100 -0.3% ASEAN 1.9 97 90 86 -1.7% Russia 1.4 80 79 -2.6% 70 India 1.1 77 -2.9% 60 Net rented space in mil. m2 (2016) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR * jwc prediction in 2008 Source: UNIMEV Bilan chiffré, OJS; AUMA, The trade fair industry in Asia by bsg 2017, CEIR Index 2017; RUEF; jwc research; jwc database www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 11 April 2018 US exhibition industry needed 10 years for getting close to pre-crisis levels US trade fair KPIs, Index 2007=100 CAGR Forecast 2007-2016 110 +0.3% 105 103 -0.3% 100 -0.6% 97 -0.7% Detailed view 95 2016 94 Exhibitors 1.35m 90 Visitors 33.24m 85 Net rented 27.78m m² space 80 Revenue* $9.97bn. 75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: CEIR report [2017], *Revenue inflation adjusted www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 12 April 2018 Value based pricing is becoming common in our industry* Approaches used to set prices for service to exhibitors and visitors 28.2% 25.7% 22.9% 18.2% Exhibitors 2.8% 2.2% Value based Competition History based Cost based Other I don’t know based 5.0% Visitors/ 11.7% Attendees 13.1% 20.7% 23.0% 26.6% jwc prediction in 2008; source: jwc Global Exhibition Industry Survey 2017 www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 13 April 2018 Consolidation in our industry is likely to continue* Major acquisitions over the last years in the exhibition industry 2013-15 2016 2017 Likely in 2018 Transactions 64 (2015) 66 66 Total deal volume 3.7 billion USD (2015) 3.3 billion USD 2.5 billion USD 6.2 billion USD The 3 biggest acquisitions $1,078m $1,534m $781m $5,500m Strategic investors Informa UBM $598m $470m $489m $425m ITE Private equity $950m $72m $366m $300m [Name] 2013-15 2016 Deal size 2017 Likely in 2018 * jwc prediction in 2009. Exchange rate as of date of announcement. Source: JEGI m&a summary, Financial Times, company‘s annual reports, jwc analysis ** Olympia Exhibition center acquired by a consortium consisting of Yoo Capital and a group of German investors www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 14 April 2018 Of the top 40 companies in the trade fair industry, the top 5 increased their market share in terms of revenue by more than 10% Annualized average market share of the top 5 exhibition companies in revenue of top 40 3.8% 2.7% 39.15% 37.70% 6.9% 34.99% 28.13% 2004 - 2005 2008 - 2009 2012-2013 2015-2016 Source: AUMA, annual reports; jwc analysis www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 15 April 2018 M&A continues to be a major growth driver UBM’s revenue, EBIT, total transferred consideration and major acquisition per year Revenue £866.4m Adjusted EBIT £711.6m 40% £630.6m 22% £437.6m £462.7m £450.5m 28% £397m £310m Annual revenue and £295.6m EBIT £202.5m £229.1m £93.5m £133.3m £142.4m £148.9m £140.6m 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Biggest acquisition and deal size £186m £3m £10m £8m £599m £31m £383m £2m Total acquisition volume £258m £72m £30m £12m £719m £40m £462m £6m * jwc prediction in 2010 www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 16 April 2018 Our industry is highly attractive to private equity Major acquisitions in the exhibition industry over the last 5 years Total deal volume EBITDA (2013 to 2017) multiple 15.0 Acquired by: In million US$ 14.5 Private Equity 14.0 Informa 13.5 Private UBM 3,410 13.0 Equity 12.5 12.0 Yachting 11.5 Promotion 11.0 Informa 2,042 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 Average EBITDA purchase price multiple UBM 1,617 for US LBO transactions* 8.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 jwc prediction in 2011. Source: Company‘s annual reports, JEGI, press releases, jwc analysis, bubble size represents deal size * Bain, Global PE Report 2018; EBITDA multiple = Deal size (total consideration)/LTM EBITDA www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 17 April 2018 Organizers are increasingly focusing on emerging markets, reducing their share of historic core markets Asia 2007 2016 Asia 2007 2016 Europe (exc. GER) Europe Americas 0,2% Central Asia & Caucasus 1,7% 13.7% 13.5% Germany Russia 18.2% 18,0% 4,8% 29.6% Africa ROW 3,6% 14.3% 17.9% 61.6% * 2,5% 6,1% 62.2% 16.4% 77.8% 37.8% Asia Asia Europe (exc. UK) 2007 2017 Europe (exc. UK) 2007 2016 North America North America 3,9% 4,5% 4,2% 14.0% UK 15.0% UK 5,5% 11,0% 23.0% 18,9% Middle East 16.0% 43.6% Latin America 41.7% 5.0% 24.8% Global 8.6% 79,0% 46.0% 8.2% 24.5% * jwc prediction in 2011. Source: Company reports, jwc estimates. *ITE‘s Asia share included in Rest of the world for 2007. Geographical split of UBM in 2007 refers to all UBM segments www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 18 April 2018 Dynamics of venue investments in exchange for indirect returns will remain…. Selected major planned investments in exhibition venues in the United States Venue (Investment) McCormick Washington Place Convention Center ($1.1 billion) ($1.4 billion) Seattle Javitz Convention New York Chicago Center LVCC ($1.5 billion) ($1.4 billion) Las Vegas Orlando OCCC Orlando Houston 2 Convention Miami ($1.3 billion) Centers in Houston ($1.5 billion) Miami Beach CC ($0.6 billion) * jwc prediction in 2013. Source: TSNN.com, Seattle Times, New York Times, Houstonpublicmedia.org, internationalmeetingsreview.com www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 19 April 2018 …also in China: The new venue in Shenzhen will be the largest venue in the world Pearl River Delta >18m sqft exhibition space 50% of net space sold in China www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 20 April 2018 Agenda Setting the stage Global Industry trends jwc’s Global Exhibition Industry Survey Industry performance INFORMA / UBM Summary www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 21 April 2018 For most companies IT has gained strongly in importance 2014 2015 2016 2017 Highlights • C-Level well in line with overall 1 1 1 1 Products/Offerings views • Sales considers HR as the most 2 2 2 2 Human Resources important focus area 3 3 3 3 IT • Venue owners consider BoS as 4 4 4 4 Branding of show(s) least important • Large companies (>250m turnover) Organization 5 5 5 5 consider M&A as third most 6 6 6 6 Cost important focus area 7 7 7 7 Pricing 8 8 8 8 M&A 9 9 9 9 Branding of company Black outline denotes highest rank reached Source: jwc’s GEIS 2014-2017 www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 22 April 2018 IT is the area where companies are currently performing lowest but have the highest focus for the future Plotting topics by “Future focus” and “Today’s performance” IT High Products/Offerings Human resources M&A Organisation Branding of show(s) Future Pricing focus Branding of company Cost Low Today’s performance High NB: Weighted average scores for Future focus are on a scale of 0 (Less emphasis on this area), 1 (About the same), 2 (More in this area); Weighted average scores for Today’s performance are on a scale of 0 (We’ve not started and are behind where we need to be), 1 (We’ve started working on this but have some way to go, 2 (We are performing well and are highly focus in this area) www.jwc.eu.com © 2018 jwc gmbh 23 April 2018 © 2018 jwc gmbh Growth www.jwc.eu.com Acquisition multiples are likely to increase further Organic vs.
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