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The Future of Allied Air Power

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The Future of Allied Air Power CAN UNCLASSIFIED The Future of Allied Air Power The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Brad Gladman DRDC – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Royal Canadian Air Force Aerospace Warfare Centre Prepared For: Commander of the Royal Canadian Aerospace Warfare Centre, Canadian Forces Base Trenton Terms of Release: This document is approved for public release. Defence Research and Development Canada Scientific Report DRDC-RDDC-2021-R104 June 2021 CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED IMPORTANT INFORMATIVE STATEMENTS This document was reviewed for Controlled Goods by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) using the Schedule to the Defence Production Act. Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by Defence Research and Development Canada an agency of the Department of National Defence. The information contained in this publication has been derived and determined through best practice and adherence to the highest standards of responsible conduct of scientific research. This information is intended for the use of the Department of National Defence, the Canadian Armed Forces (“Canada”) and Public Safety partners and, as permitted, may be shared with academia, industry, Canada’s allies, and the public (“Third Parties”). Any use by, or any reliance on or decisions made based on this publication by Third Parties, are done at their own risk and responsibility. Canada does not assume any liability for any damages or losses which may arise from any use of, or reliance on, the publication. Endorsement statement: This publication has been peer-reviewed and published by the Editorial Office of Defence Research and Development Canada, an agency of the Department of National Defence of Canada. Inquiries can be sent to: [email protected]. Template in use: EO Publishing App for SR-RD-EC Eng 2021-02-11.dotm © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada (Department of National Defence), 2021 © Sa Majesté la Reine en droit du Canada (Ministère de la Défense nationale), 2021 CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED Abstract The purpose of this Scientific Report is to inform discussions of capability and concept development within both the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) and the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). This is the fourth in a series of reports written for the Commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force Aerospace Warfare Centre. The method adopted for this paper starts with an analysis of the policy and supporting strategy framework of, in this case, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Based on this understanding of the key tenets of NATO strategic thinking it is possible to identify those air power concepts and capabilities of importance to the alliance to meet the challenges of the anticipated operating environments. This analysis, in the context of the other Scientific Reports in the series, could serve a range of functions within the Department of National Defence (DND) and the CAF, from focusing RCAF capability and concept development to informing Joint Force Development Significance to Defence and Security This Scientific Report is the fourth in a larger analytical effort whose reports are being used in Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) joint-level force development (FD) activities, and have been distributed to the Five-Eyes (FVEY) joint FD organizations. When completed, this study will help to provide a focus for RCAF and CAF concept and force development. Through the development of a more comprehensive understanding of the orientation, threat perception, and capability and concept development efforts of Canada’s key allies, this analytical effort will identify areas that RCAF and CAF concept and force development communities need to explore to ensure the CAF maintains its position as a trusted and capable ally. Moreover, the general analytical approach developed in these reports, of creating and using an understanding of “future warfare” as the main method for force development across the services, has been gaining momentum within the CAF, and is recommended for wider use. DRDC-RDDC-2021-R104 i CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED Résumé Le présent rapport scientifique vise à éclairer les discussions sur le développement de capacités et de concepts au sein de l’Aviation royale canadienne (ARC) et des Forces armées canadiennes (FAC). Il s’agit du quatrième d’une série de rapports à l’intention du commandant du Centre de guerre aérospatiale de l’ARC. La méthodologie adoptée dans ce rapport consistait tout d’abord à procéder à une analyse de la politique et du cadre de la stratégie d’appui de l’Organisation du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN). En vertu de cette compréhension des principes clés de la pensée stratégique de l’OTAN, il est possible de déterminer les concepts et les capacités en matière de puissance aérienne qui sont importants pour l’alliance afin de pouvoir relever les défis des environnements opérationnels prévus. Cette analyse, dans le cadre des autres rapports scientifiques de la série, pourrait servir à un vaste éventail de fonctions au sein du ministère de la Défense nationale (MDN) et des FAC, qu’il s’agisse d’orienter le développement des capacités et des concepts de l’ARC ou d’éclairer le développement de la force interarmées. Importance pour la défense et la sécurité Le présent rapport scientifique est le quatrième dans le cadre d’un plus vaste travail d’analyse consacré aux activités de développement de la force (DF) interarmées des Forces armées canadiennes (FAC) et diffusé aux organisations responsables de ces activités au sein du Groupe des cinq (Gp5). Une fois menée à terme, cette étude aidera à orienter le développement des forces et des concepts de l’ARC et des FAC. En approfondissant la compréhension de cette orientation, de la perception des menaces et des efforts de développement des capacités et des concepts des alliés clés du Canada, ce travail d’analyse permettra de déterminer les domaines que les communautés responsables de leur développement au sein de l’ARC et des FAC devront explorer pour que ces dernières conservent leur statut d’allié digne de confiance et compétent. On recommande en outre l’utilisation à plus grande échelle de la démarche analytique générale élaborée pour les rapports de cette série. Cette démarche, de plus en plus en vogue au sein des FAC, consistait à acquérir et à utiliser une compréhension de la « guerre de l’avenir » comme principale méthode de développement de la force dans les différents services. ii DRDC-RDDC-2021-R104 CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents Abstract ................................ ... i Significance to Defence and Security ......................... i Résumé ................................ ... ii Importance pour la défense et la sécurité ....................... ii Table of Contents ............................... iii 1 Introduction ................................ 1 2 Background and Threat Context ......................... 2 2.1 A Word on Russian Resurgence ....................... 5 2.2 Russian Military Modernisation ....................... 6 2.3 Russian Hybrid Warfare ......................... 11 3 NATO Strategic Guidance .......................... 13 3.1 The Future of the NATO Alliance ..................... 13 3.2 The 2% of GDP Debate ......................... 15 3.3 Strategic Concept ........................... 16 3.4 The Future Vector Project ........................ 18 3.5 NATO Air Power Strategy ........................ 19 4 Capability Development Expectations for NATO Member Nations ........... 23 4.1 Air Combat ............................. 24 4.2 Fifth-Generation Fighters ........................ 26 4.3 Unmanned or Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) in Combat Roles ...... 27 4.4 Control of the Air ........................... 28 4.5 Command and Control ......................... 30 4.6 Attack ............................... 33 4.7 Air Mobility ............................. 35 4.8 Air-to-Air Refuelling—The Multi-Role Tanker Transport Capability ........ 37 4.9 Joint ISR .............................. 38 4.10 Manned ISR ............................. 39 4.11 Unmanned ISR ............................ 39 4.12 Maritime Patrol and Anti-Submarine Warfare ................. 41 4.13 Rotary Wing Aviation ......................... 43 5 Effective Air Power in the Context of Strategy—Joint All Domain Operations ....... 46 6 Conclusion ................................ 48 References ................................ 51 List of Symbols/Abbreviations/Acronyms/Initialisms .................. 63 DRDC-RDDC-2021-R104 iii CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED This page intentionally left blank. iv DRDC-RDDC-2021-R104 CAN UNCLASSIFIED CAN UNCLASSIFIED 1 Introduction This paper is the final part of a larger analytical effort seeking to develop a comprehensive understanding of how Canada’s key allies see the evolution in warfare, with a focus on understanding their views on the future of air warfare.1 The method developed for this project, and used in this analysis, involves looking first at the subject’s strategic thinking in order to set an appropriate context with which to understand the path being charted with its investment in concept and capability development. In this instance it is not an ally but an alliance. Yet, while this complicates the analysis somewhat, an appreciation of The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) understanding of the threats to European and world security, as well as the challenges and opportunities to meeting those threats, will help to understand NATO’s thinking on the future of air power. This,
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