Japan as a “Power” Discarding a Legacy Ingolf Kiesow John Rydqvist ASIA PAPER June 2008 Foreword This publication is the product of a co-operation between the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). The Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters is the main customer of the FOI production and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs is the main financial sponsor of the contribution of ISDP. The copyright belongs to both institutions. The co-operation-project started with a user report for the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters published in December 2007 by FOI (FOI-R--2402—SE) under the title Japan som “makt” I Östasien (Japan as a power in East Asia). It was written by John Rydqvist at the FOI and Ingolf Kiesow, then half-time employee at the FOI and half-time at ISDP. This research material has then been used to create a revised and substantially enlarged version, which has been written in English by the two authors, Ingolf Kiesow at ISDP and John Rydqvist at FOI. Alec Forss and Nicklas Norling at ISDP have assisted in the editing and linguistic improvement. Doctor Bert Edström at ISDP and Professor Robert Bedeski of the University of Victoria have been helpful with quality control and suggestions. Nacka, the 26th June, 2008 Dr. Niklas Swanström Director, ISDP Japan as a “Power” Discarding a Legacy Ingolf Kiesow John Rydqvist © Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden www.isdp.eu "Japan as a “Power”: Discarding a Legacy" is an Asia Paper published by the Institute for Security and Development Policy. The Asia Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Institute’s Asia Program, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Institute is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and cooperates closely with research centers worldwide. Through its Silk Road Studies Program, the Institute runs a joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The Institute is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. It is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute for Security and Development Policy or the Swedish Defence Research Agency. © Institute for Security and Development Policy & the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 2008 ISBN: 978-91-85937-31-8 Printed in Singapore Distributed in Europe by: Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Tel. +46-841056953; Fax. +46-86403370 Email: [email protected] Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Dr. Bert Edström at: [email protected] Table of Contents Key Abbreviations ..................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 5 I. Japan: A Country in Transition ........................................................................... 9 II. The Defense of Japan and the U.S.–Japan “Alliance” .................................... 18 III. China-Japan Relations: Turning the Tide ...................................................... 39 IV. Russia—Still a Bear! ......................................................................................... 54 V. The Korean Peninsula: A Dagger Aimed at the Heart of Japan ................... 61 VI. The Significance of Japan–U.S. Cooperation in Ballistic Missile Defense . 75 VII. Japan as a Power in East Asia ........................................................................ 85 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 95 About the Authors .................................................................................................. 99 Key Abbreviations ASAT – Anti-Satellite BMD – Ballistic Missile Defense DJP – Democratic Party of Japan DPRK – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea IMF – International Monetary Fund JSP – Japan Socialist Party LDP – Liberal Democratic Party NDPG-05 – 2005 National Defense Program Guidelines NDPO-96 – 1996 National Defense Program Outline SCO –Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDF – Self Defense Forces SLOCS – Sea Lanes of Communication TMD – Theater Missile Defense UNCLOS – United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction Executive Summary Generation changes and communication problems have caused foreign observers to talk about an “identity problem” in Japan. On the whole, the younger generation seems to be remarkably focused on “self-realization,” making it unlikely that they can easily be enthused to militaristic nationalism. Declining economic growth rates and an increasing loan-burden affects the status of Japan in Asia. The burden of history also looms large in its relations with other Asian countries. On the scene of domestic politics, the Japan Socialist Party has been dissolved because of both political mistakes and declining sympathy from voters for its North Korea-friendly attitude. Instead the “social democratic” Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) has become the greatest opposition party, and Japan in practice has become a country with a two party system. The traditional mainstream party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is no longer the sole decision-maker, but many important issues are still decided by the changes in the power-structure within the LDP. The U.S.-Japan security treaty has been the first pillar in Japanese foreign and security policy since the Second World War. It is of central importance also for U.S. strategy in Asia, and is for Japan a security guarantee in a world where two not always friendly neighbors (Russia and China) are nuclear powers. The current transformation of Japanese foreign and defense policy as well as the U.S.-Japan alliance alters much of the foundation upon which Japan’s foreign policy rested during the Cold War. Pivotal to these changes are Tokyo’s ambitions to become a more “normal” power with the full range of persuasive, dissuasive, and deterrent policy tools including an assertive regional military capability. Uncertainties presented by shifting power balances in the wake of China’s rise and North Korean aggression, as well as more direct security challenges presented by increased emphasis on energy security, globalization of trade, and disaster relief, are some of the issues driving change. In this “new” environment, Tokyo prepares for future 6 Ingolf Kiesow & John Rydqvist developments that may warrant the independent use of military power in defense or support of national objectives. The nuclear weapons issue has been of utmost importance during the entire postwar period. Public opinion in Japan is strongly opposed to any idea of a Japanese nuclear weapon; this stems from the WWII bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Although very unlikely now or in the foreseeable future, if the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence to Japan were to seriously decline, or the U.S. were to explicitly withdraw, Japan would face a situation where the acquisition of an independent nuclear arsenal would seem inevitable. In such an improbable scenario it is highly unlikely that Tokyo would be forced to take the decision to develop its own (modest) nuclear force, however. China’s rising economic power is causing uneasiness in Japan, because of the historical background. Resentment of Japan’s cruel warfare on Chinese soil during the Second World War, and the lack of transparency which surrounds China’s military modernization, add to these feelings of uneasiness. They tend to be combined with sensitivity against foreign interference in domestic Japanese matters, especially when Chinese leaders criticize visits by Japanese high officials to the Yasakuni Shrine in Tokyo, where some leading war criminals are supposed to be “enshrined.” This can also be seen as a convenient leverage for China, whenever its leaders wish to whip up nationalism within their own country. Territorial disputes over resources of oil and gas on the bottom of the sea between the two countries have embittered relations during recent years, but have also offered an opportunity to create significant Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) together, as has also been seen in relations between Japan and South Korea. History is also still having negative effects on relations with Russia. Territorial disputes caused by Russia’s annexation of four islands—the Kurile Islands—that had been in Japanese possession continue to represent an obstacle to real improvement and have made it impossible to conclude a peace agreement between the two countries since the Second World War. Japan has shown an interest in helping Russia to develop its Siberian natural resources, but old suspicions and a renewed