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Strategic Yet Strained INTRODUCTION | i STRATEGIC YET STRAINED US FORCE REALIGNMENT IN JAPAN AND ITS EFFECTS ON OKINAWA Yuki Tatsumi, Editor September 2008 ii | STRATEGIC YET STRAINED Copyright ©2008 The Henry L. Stimson Center ISBN: 0-9770023-8-1 Photos from the US Government Cover design by Rock Creek Creative All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Henry L. Stimson Center. The Henry L. Stimson Center 1111 19th Street, NW 12th Floor Washington, DC 20036 phone: 202-223-5956 fax: 202-238-9604 www.stimson.org TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms............................................................................................................. v Preface ..............................................................................................................viii Acknowledgements............................................................................................. ix INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 1 Yuki Tatsumi and Arthur Lord SECTION I: THE CONTEXT CHAPTER 1: THE GLOBAL POSTURE REVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES: “REDUCE, MAINTAIN, AND ENHANCE”............................................................... 13 Derek J. Mitchell CHAPTER 2: THE US STRATEGY BEYOND THE GLOBAL POSTURE REVIEW ...... 25 Tsuneo “Nabe” Watanabe CHAPTER 3: THE LEGACY OF PRIME MINISTER KOIZUMI’S JAPANESE FOREIGN POLICY: AN ASSESSMENT .................................................................... 39 Koji Murata SECTION II: US MILITARY PRESENCE IN OKINAWA—REGIONAL FACTORS CHAPTER 4: US PERSPECTIVES ON THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN EAST ASIA .. 49 L. Gordon Flake CHAPTER 5: RECONFIGURATION OF THE US FORCES IN KOREA: IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL POSTURE REVIEW ........................................................ 61 Scott A. Snyder CHAPTER 6: US STRATEGY IN EAST ASIA: IMPACT OF THE CHINA FACTOR ..... 75 Eric Heginbotham SECTION III: THE DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW INITIATIVE iv | STRATEGIC YET STRAINED CHAPTER 7: THE DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW INITIATIVE: THE JAPANESE PERSPECTIVE .............................................................................. 91 Takashi Kawakami CHAPTER 8: CHANGING ROLES AND MISSIONS IN THE JAPAN–US ALLIANCE: DEFENSE COOPERATION UNDER THE DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW INITIATIVE AND FUTURE CHALLENGES ...................................................................................... 105 Sugio Takahashi CHAPTER 9: THE DEFENSE POLICY REVIEW INITIATIVE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE UNITED STATES .................................................................................... 123 Yuki Tatsumi SECTION IV: IMPLICATIONS FOR OKINAWA CHAPTER 10: US POLICY TOWARD JAPAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR OKINAWA...... 137 Weston S. Konishi CHAPTER 11: EVALUATION OF US FORCE REALIGNMENT IN OKINAWA: IS THE ROADMAP A BETTER ALTERNATIVE TO NO AGREEMENT?..................... 147 Yuji Uesugi CHAPTER 12: OKINAWA’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND THE 2006 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION ............................................................................. 167 Robert D. Eldridge CONCLUSION: THE WAY FORWARD ............................................................... 181 Yuki Tastumi and Arthur Lord ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS........................................................................... 193 ENDNOTES ....................................................................................................... 195 ACRONYMS III MEF Third Marine Expeditionary Force (J)ASDF (Japan) Air Self-Defense Force (J)GSDF (Japan) Ground Self-Defense Force (J)MSDF (Japan) Maritime Self-Defense Force (J)SDF (Japan) Self-Defense Force AB Air Base ADC Air Defense Command AFB Air Force Base APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASAT Anti-Satellite Test ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare AWAC Airborne Warning and Control BJOCC Bilateral Joint Operations Coordination Center BMD Ballistic Missile Defense BRAC Basic Realignment and Closure CAFTA Central America Free Trade Agreement CFC Combined Forces Command CINC Commander in Chief CJTF Combined Joint Task Force CJTF-HOA Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa CRF Central Readiness Force DFAA Defense Facilities Administration Agency DMZ De-Militarized Zone DOD United States Department of Defense DPJ Democratic Party of Japan DPRI Defense Posture Review Initiative DPRK Democratic People's Republic of Korea EASI East Asian Strategic Initiative FDI Foreign Direct Investment FOTA Future of the Alliance Initiative FRF Futenma Replacement Facility FTA Free Trade Agreement GAO Governmental Accountability Office GDP Gross Domestic Product GIMDP Guam Integrated Military Development Plan GOJ Government of Japan GPR Global Posture Review HQ Headquarters ICBM Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IPR Intellectual Property Rights IRBM Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile JDA Japan Defense Agency (now MOD) JSA Joint Security Area JTF Joint Task Force KORUS FTA Korea-US Free Trade Agreement LDP Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) vi | STRATEGIC YET STRAINED MCAS Marine Corps Air Station MEB Marine Expeditionary Brigade MEU Marine Expeditionary Unit MOB Main Operating Base MOD Japan Ministry of Defense MOFA Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs MRBM Medium Range Ballistic Missile NAFTA North America Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NAS Naval Air Station NDA Northern Development Assistance NDPG National Defense Program Guideline NDS National Defense Strategy NEO Non-combat Evacuation Operation NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIDS National Institute for Defense Studies (Japan) NLP Night Landing Practice NM Nautical Mile NMS National Military Strategy NSC National Security Council NSS National Security Strategy ODA Official Development Assistance OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OPG Okinawa Prefectural Government PACOM United States Pacific Command PLA People's Liberation Army (China) PLAN PLA Navy PRC People’s Republic of China PSI Proliferation Security Initiative QDR Quadrennial Defense Review RADM Rear Admiral RBP Relocation Basic Plan RMA Revolution in Military Affairs RMC Roles, Missions, and Capabilities ROK Republic of Korea SACO Special Action Committee on Okinawa SCAP Security Consultation for Alliance Partnership SCC Security Consultative Committee SCM Security Consultative Meeting SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SLBM Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile SOFA Status of Forces Agreement SPI Strategic Policy Initiative SS Ship Submersible (Submarine) SSN Ship Submersible Nuclear Powered Submarine SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine (Nuclear Powered) TMD Theater Missile Defense UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States USFJ United States Forces in Japan USFK United States Forces in Korea USG United States Government WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction WTO World Trade Organization viii | STRATEGIC YET STRAINED PREFACE Dear Colleague, It is a pleasure to present to you Strategic Yet Strained: US Force Realignment in Japan and its Effects on Okinawa. This edited volume is the newest addition to Stimson’s work on the US-Japan security relationship, ably led by Senior Associate Yuki Tatsumi in partnership with the Okinawa Peace Assistance Center (OPAC). This edited volume focuses on the critical case of Okinawa, the site of the largest US military facility in Japan and historic source of controversy and tension in the US-Japan alliance. The volume also weaves a larger tapestry around the Okinawa story, addressing a rich set of Asian security issues. The volume provides an original and provocative context for considering related topics such as the US presence in Korea, and how China factors into the US force realignment in Japan. Ms. Tatsumi assembled an outstanding group of scholars in Japan and the United States, who worked collaboratively to assess these issues, then wrote chapters on distinct topics, some strategic and some deeply detailed about the US decision to realign its forces and the effects of those choices on Okinawa. We hope you find this new book, and our earlier work on Japan and other East Asian topics, of value. We hope that this work will help educate interested citizens in the US and Asia, and provide more depth to policy deliberations in Washington and Tokyo about this key relationship. Sincerely, Ellen Laipson President and CEO ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, my deep gratitude goes to Yuji Uesugi, who headed the Okinawa Peace Assistance Center (OPAC) when this project was initially conceptualized and launched. Yuji provided the Stimson Center the opportunity to collaborate with OPAC on this important project, and without his initiative, I could not have dreamed of nor would have had the wherewithal to gather the team of twelve talented scholars of whom we had to ask much. Special thanks go to Mao Shimizu and Kazue Nakadomari of OPAC for their efforts in coordinating all Japan-based meetings as well. I also cannot sufficiently thank my US-based teammates—L. Gordon Flake, Eric Heginbotham, Derek J. Mitchell, Scott A. Snyder, and Weston S. Konishi—for their constant encouragement and support throughout the process. There were a number of occasions when I almost gave up on following through with this project, but their commitment to the project was a constant inspiration and at times the biggest motivation in pressing ahead despite occasional setbacks. Japan-based contributors—Robert E. Eldridge, Takashi Kawakami, Koji Murata, Sugio Takahashi, and Tsuneo Watanabe—also deserve
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