Carbon and Cost Analysis Set (CC1)
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A BSRIA Guide www.bsria.co.uk
Life Cycle Costing
By David Churcher and Peter Tse
BG 67/2016
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This guide supersedes BG 5/2008 Whole-Life Costing Analysis.
This revised edition was written by Peter Tse of BSRIA and David Churcher of Hitherwood Consulting. It was designed and produced by Claire Gould and Joanna Smith of BSRIA.
The guidance given in this publication is correct to the best of BSRIA’s knowledge. However, BSRIA cannot guarantee that it is free of errors. Material in this publication does not constitute any warranty, endorsement or guarantee by BSRIA. Risk associated with the use of material from this publication is assumed entirely by the user.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the publisher.
© BSRIA March 2016 ISBN 978-0-86022-749-6 Printed by Lavenham Press
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PREFACE REFRIGERATION
This guide has been prepared by BSRIA to complement existing knowledge of life cycle costing, and training courses provided by BSRIA. These theoretical and practical training courses are intended to help engineers, architects, facilities managers and clients understand the mechanics of calculating life cycle costs.
The analysis of life cycle costs is something that we all do in our everyday lives. Its principles help us decide whether to replace our car as the servicing and MOT costs grow in relation to its trade-in value, or whether to buy a cheap and cheerful dishwasher instead of a premium brand that we hope will last longer. In these circumstances we do not go through the process in a systematic, step-by-step way as we work on the basis that our intuition is good enough. However, business decisions can be much more significant, involving larger sums of money and longer timescales.
There is also the issue of good stewardship of corporate or public resources to be considered. For these reasons, more emphasis is being placed on life cycle costing studies as part of the decision-making process for new- build, refurbishment and plant replacement projects so that all the costs – not just the initial capital investment – can be taken into account. Life cycle costing complements the move towards use of information models to improve asset and project management. The appreciation of life cycle issues is fundamental to the use of BIM Level 2 as mandated by the UK Government on its centrally procured projects, and it is expected that similar standards will be applied by other parts of the public sector and by many private sector clients and asset owners.
This guide presents a simple process for the practical calculation of life cycle costs, with examples to show how the different stages of the process relate to one another, to show how the results are obtained and what they mean. Of course, life cycle costing is only one form of project appraisal, focusing on the economic outcome. Ultimately, a decision will be a compromise between this and other assessments, be they technical, environmental or political, but these are outside the scope of this guide.
This guide has been deliberately kept short by omitting some of the more complex aspects of life cycle costing. However, it is compatible with the parts of ISO 15686 that provide recommendations for life cycle costing. Clients, estates managers, engineers, consultants, quantity surveyors or cost advisers will find some parts of the guide more relevant than others, but all are recommended to read the entire guidance.
Life cycle costing is just one of a number of assessment techniques that help identify the appropriate solution to a problem. It focuses on economic assessment using profiles of current and future costs and benefits to arrive at a discounted net present value of the life cycle costs, incorporating lump sum investments, operating costs, end of life costs, and end of study benefits such as residual value.
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PREFACE
Although the life cycle costs calculated during the analysis can be presented to any number of decimal places this is not necessarily appropriate. The users of the results must be made aware of the level of confidence that the analysts have in the life cycle costs. Cynics may say that life cycle costs are nothing more than educated guesses.
BSRIA’s view, in line with that of HM Treasury, the Office of Government Commerce and a wide range of academic and practitioner commentators, is that this is actually a marked improvement on making significant decisions based on uneducated guesses or gut instinct.
In addition, the life cycle costing process forces the client and the project team to challenge their own assumptions and those of others. This will lead to proposed solutions that have been thought through more rigorously and which will stand up to scrutiny. The discipline of documenting assumptions such as sources of life expectancy and cost data will significantly assist those who need to examine the analysis at some future date. The data that is acquired for the life cycle costing models will also contribute to a building or estate-specific database that can be re-used in future analyses.
Finally, it is worth considering that life cycle costing studies require time and effort to complete. The overhead of carrying out the studies must always be considered in relation to the potential savings that emerge from the modelling and calculations.
Peter Tse and David Churcher November 2015
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1 CONTENTS REFRIGERATION
INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING 1 1 DEFINING THE PROBLEM 9 2 ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS 11 2.1 Identifying alternative solutions 11 2.2 Specifying the fundamentals 12 2.3 Building the life cycle costing models 15 2.4 Sources of timing information for life cycle activities 17 2.5 Sources of cost information for life cycle activities 19 2.6 Storing data for future use 23
3 CALCULATING LIFE CYCLE COSTS 24 3.1 Net present values for lump sum costs and benefits 24 3.2 Net present values for recurring costs and benefits 29 3.3 Summarising net present values 36 3.4 Calculating equivalent annual costs 36
4 FINE-TUNING LIFE CYCLE COSTS 38
4.1 Single variable sensitivity 38 4.2 Dual variable sensitivity 42 4.3 Probabilistic simulation 43
5 INTERPRETING THE RESULTS 44 5.1 The Golden Rule 44 5.2 Initial rate of return 45 5.3 Payback 45 5.4 Independent projects 46 5.5 Economic planning 48 5.6 Precision in life cycle costing 53
BENEFITS OF THE LIFE CYCLE COSTING PROCESS 55
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A1 : LOOK-UP TABLES 56 APPENDIX A2 : EXAMPLE 60 APPENDIX A3 : GLOSSARY OF TERMS 76
REFERENCES 78
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INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING TABLES
Table 1: Discount rates for long-term public sector projects 12 Table 2: Selecting the required data 15 Table 3: Service life factors from ISO 15686 19 Table 4: Model of life cycle costing studies 37 Table 5: Example of projects with limited initial investment 47 Table 6: Example of projects with maximum savings for a limited initial investment 48 Table 7: Present value of £1 (discount factors for lump sums) 56 Table 8: Present value of £1 per year (discount factors for recurring sums) 57 Table 9: Equivalent annual cost discount factors 58 Table10: Future value of £1 (Inflation factors for lump sums) 59
FIGURES
Figure 1: The step-by-step process for life cycle costing 1 Figure 2: Assessments required for project decision-making 2 Figure 3: Definitions of whole life cost and life cycle cost in ISO 15686-5 4 Figure 4: Profile of inflation, gilt yields and corporate bond yields 13 Figure 5: Example of project timelines 17 Figure 6: Variability of life expectancy information 18 Figure 7: Profile of fuel prices 20 Figure 8: Project timelines for the base case and alternatives 1-3 22 Figure 9: Timeline for escalating energy costs 23 Figure 10: Graph of recurring cost net present value 29 Figure 11: Discount factor for a deferred recurring cost 31 Figure 12: Effect of different gas price rises on life cycle costs 40 Figure 13: Effect on life cycle costs of the varying discount rate 41 Figure 14: Plot of dual variable sensitivity analysis 43 Figure 15: Project timelines for Alternatives 2 and 2A 53 Figure 16: Example of life cycle cost precision at different stages of design 54
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INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING
INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING
This guide presents a practical approach to life cycle costing for the construction and operation of buildings. A detailed example is used throughout to illustrate the principles as they are discussed.
How to use this For ease of use, the process of life cycle costing is broken down into five guide sequential, colour-coded logical steps that are used throughout this guide. These are illustrated in Figure 1. Other guides to life cycle costing may use different numbers of steps, but the overall process is the same. As the figure also shows, life cycle costing is an iterative process. The number of iterations will depend on the degree of precision required from the end result, the type of assumptions made in Steps 1 and 2, and the quality of the data obtained for the costs and timings of the activities that make up the project.
STEP 1 Defining the problem
STEP 2 Alternative solutions
STEP 3 Calculating life cycle costs
STEP 4 Fine-tuning life cycle costs
STEP 5 Interpreting the results
Figure 1: The step-by-step process for life cycle costing
STEP 1 STEP 5 Scenario Defining the Interpreting Decision- and context problem the results making
STEP 2 STEP 4 Timing and Alternative Fine-tuning cost data solutions life cycle costs
STEP 3 Calculating life cycle costs
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1 INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING
Life cycle costing is about providing an economic appraisal of different REFRIGERATION solutions to a given problem, so that a better decision can be made. Of course there are other assessments that also have to be taken into account, as shown in Figure 2. The final decision will be a compromise between the recommendations obtained from the different assessments.
Figure 2: Assessments required for project decision-making
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This section explains why life cycle costing is particularly important and sets out when it can and cannot be used. Subsequent sections of the guide explain each step in the life cycle costing process in turn.
Importance of life It is important that the underlying arguments supporting life cycle cycle costing costing, its core principles and the restrictions on how it can be used, are understood by everyone involved in scoping, designing and delivering the project. For public sector procurement, the government has set out a policy of making decisions on the basis of best value rather than lowest initial cost, which is the essence of life cycle costing. This is emphasised in the UK Construction 2025 strategy document dated July 2013. By working in partnership, the construction industry and Government jointly aspire to achieve, by 2025, a 33% reduction in both the initial cost of construction and the life cycle cost of assets.
The long term The built environment is a key ingredient in the UK’s post-industrial picture of building economy. It is a visible statement of our achievement and progress, ownership generating 8-10% of GDP and employment for 2 million people.
The longevity of the built environment, and of the organisations that use it, means that its cost cannot be judged just in terms of capital investment. The operational costs of construction and infrastructure are significant and have to be taken into account. The precise nature of the balance between construction cost, operation and maintenance costs, and the costs of the business processes enclosed in a building, have been argued in papers by
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INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING
Evans, Hargott, Haste and Jones — The Long Term Costs of Owning and Using Buildings[1], and by Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst — Exposing the Myth of the 1:5:200 Ratio Relating Initial Cost, Maintenance and Staffing Costs of Office Buildings[2]. The most important message is that these different types of costs and benefits, traditionally managed by separate groups of people, are not independent of each other. They all contribute to the economic value of a project.
The case for higher capital investment in return for lower running costs or improved worker productivity is there to be argued. Life cycle costing is one of the tools that can be used to support decision-making that takes account of the long-term view of the costs and benefits involved in building and infrastructure projects. Some other relevant assessments are shown in Figure 2.
In our own lives, we find no difficulty in balancing a higher capital investment with a reduced operating cost or a higher resulting value – these are the judgements we make when justifying the purchase of low energy lamps, loft insulation, or a new car with a higher resale value or greater fuel efficiency. Why then, should organisations find it so difficult to apply the same rational approach to their investments in buildings and plant?
Part of this is due to the much greater complexity of the projects, together with the fact that organisations break down complexity by dividing up roles and responsibilities, to the extent that they fail to see the big picture. Another issue is the difficulty of obtaining data with which to calculate life cycle costs. A third part may be a perception that very precise results are required and if these are not available then it’s better not to bother at all.
This guide shows how these issues can be overcome or dealt with, and the ways in which life cycle costing can provide valuable information for appraising projects.
International ISO 15686-5[3] provides an international code of practice for life cycle standard costing in relation to the built environment. This is part of a series of ISO15686-5 standards covering service life planning, or the long-term understanding of building elements, components and equipment.
ISO 15686-5 makes the distinction between life cycle costing and whole life costing. This is illustrated in Figure 3. Under the ISO definition, life cycle costing covers the initial construction and through-life activities associated with a built asset whereas whole life costing also includes non- construction activities and income generation such as receiving rent from tenants. The implication is that life cycle costing will be more pertinent to designers, contractors and facility or asset managers, whereas whole life costing will be more appropriate to owner-occupiers, developers and landlords. However, in practical terms the difference is one of scale rather than the techniques used and in this guide the term life cycle costing has been used to cover both situations.
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1 INTRODUCTION TO LIFE CYCLE COSTING
The components of life cycle costing in Figure 3 are explained in more REFRIGERATION detail in Section 2.3.
ISO 15686-5 also explains in detail how the principles of life cycle costing can be applied to the built environment at different levels of detail. This may be to a whole building or piece of infrastructure, to a system type within a building or asset, or to a range of alternative materials or manufactured products. At system or product level, life cycle costing may be focused on structural, enclosing, engineering or finishing elements, either singly or collectively.
Figure 3: Definitions of whole life cost and life cycle cost based on ISO 15686-5