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The Influence of Libyan Intervention on the Duration of the Darfur Crisis

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The Influence of Libyan Intervention on the Duration of the Darfur Crisis NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CRISIS MANAGEMENT: THE INFLUENCE OF LIBYAN INTERVENTION ON THE DURATION OF THE DARFUR CRISIS ASHRAF ALI O. HAMED A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Nottingham Trent University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 2014 Copyright Statement This work is the intellectual property of the author. You may copy up to 5% of this work for private study, or personal, non-commercial research. Any re-use of the information contained within this document should be fully referenced, quoting the author, title, university, degree level and pagination. Queries or requests for any other use, or if a more substantial copy is required, should be directed in the owner(s) of the Intellectual Property Rights. ii Abstract This thesis lies in the broader topic of the impact of external intervention on the interstate crises and conflicts and each one's duration. The purpose of this study is to address the gaps and contradictions in the related literature. This study achieves this purpose by investigating the factors that drive the duration of intrastate conflicts, and understand why and how the duration of such conflicts may be affected by the role of regional third-party interveners. It focuses primarily on understanding the factors underlying the duration of the Darfur crisis in Sudan by analysing the Gaddafi regime’s role in that crisis during the 2003–11 period. This dissertation investigates the association between the long duration of the crisis and Libyan involvement as a major regional third party, as a form of crisis management and as an aspect of the international management of internal conflicts. In doing so a number of questions were asked regarding the causes of the Darfur Crisis and how they impacted on its duration: what were key Libyan national incentives and agenda behind the Gaddafi regime involvement in the Darfur Crisis; how did the scale of Libyan involvement effectiveness relate to the duration of the crisis in addition to Libyan mechanisms and techniques used; and how might the regime change in Libya affect the resolution of the crisis? In this respect, a new theoretical model was developed from the literature to show the theoretical relationship between external/regional third-party intervention in internal conflicts and the likelihood of ending these conflicts in shorter or longer time. Hypotheses were developed and tested based on the relationships identified in the model. It has been found that the causes of the rebellion in Darfur are multiple and complicated, internal and external, political and economic, social and environmental. All these factors have had a significant impact on the eruption of the Darfur Crisis and its continuation. Thus, any attempts to end this crisis without taking all these dimensions into consideration would be quite meaningless and ineffective. Each regional and extra- regional actor significantly sought to guide the violence in the direction which would allow them to gain certain outcomes. The major research finding was that when an external state becomes (in)directly involved with military, economic or diplomatic manoeuvres with a separate agenda that is independent of the motivations of the domestic fighters, parties, in an intrastate conflict that involves ethnic and tribal societies, iii and where there are multiple opposition armed groups with independent preferences, the likelihood of prolonging the duration of the conflict is greater. These developed hypotheses were tested and explained by utilising a qualitative case study of Libyan involvement in the Darfur Crisis. This thesis then shows how the Libyan intervention (under the Gaddafi regime), exactly in line with our developed model, has prolonged the duration of the Darfur Crisis in Sudan. This thesis demonstrates that the Gaddafi regime has its own agenda, interests, and ambitions in the Darfur region, and its involvement was a key factor in prolonging the duration of the crisis there. The key incentive behind the Libyan strategy of interference in the Darfur crisis over the past decade or so was founded on the basis of Gaddafi’s desire “to gain from the conflict, not to resolve the conflict.” It is found that Gaddafi appears to have played one of the most complex and ambiguous roles in the crisis as it was dual in nature, and at different times showed how the Libyan leadership influenced the parties to the crisis in Darfur in different ways and levels. The originality of this thesis lies in both what is studied and how it is studied. This study simultaneously combines and employs two different types of literature: material focusing on the Crisis’ historical roots, its domestic, regional, and international implications; and distinguished studies relating to the theoretical framework underpinning this thesis that address the impact of external intervention on the internal crises and conflicts and who long they last. This a comprehensive technique of looking at and analysing primary and secondary data is, to the best of our knowledge, new and has not been used in any other study in the literature. In short, this study contributes to our understanding the causes of the outbreak of the Darfur Crisis and factors underlying its continuation, as well as why the crisis has been prolonged for over ten years. Furthermore, the study analyses the strategies variability to advance knowledge in the field of crisis management. This study attempts to address a gap in the literature which, broadly speaking discusses the impact of outside third parties on the expected duration of intrastate conflicts. This study concludes that the adoption of this particular model would increase the probability of domestic and international dissension-makers and mediators of minimising the worst negative effects of external state intervention on the possibility of making internal crises and conflicts last longer. Both the limitations and the implications of this research as well as recommendations are given, along with possible directions for future research. iv Dedication This thesis is lovingly dedicated to: the greatest and the most beautiful and kind woman in my life, my mum. the spirit: my father and my brother Faraj, the endless love, may Allah forgive them and have mercy upon them. my loving wife, for her support, encouragement, and constant love have sustained me throughout each step of the way. my children, Ala, Anas and Aws whose love and confidence is a constant source of inspiration and encouragement. my brothers and sister for their love, endless support and encouragement. v Acknowledgements Acknowledging all the people who provided assistance to me in this academic adventure is, in itself, a very daunting task, as one always runs the risk of forgetting to put a key name in this acknowledgment. I would like to thank my co-supervisors Dr Imad El-Anis and Dr Roy Smith for their generous support during the PhD process and for their critical comments on earlier drafts and for inspiring me to form the theoretical and conceptual basis of this thesis, and for their helpful suggestions on the development of this thesis. I want to thank my Director of Studies, Dr Imad El-Anis for his full support and dedication. Dr El- Anis was the academic guide that with enthusiasm, energy and professionalism helped me to walk to the end of this road. Dr El-Anis worked long hours on this project and was always available for critical discussion. I would also like to thank my second supervisor Dr Roy Smith for his useful advice, particularly during the confirmation process. My academic and PhD colleagues were invaluable in helping me to test the various arguments in this thesis to strengthen and deepen it. And, of course, for the support through the ups and downs of undertaking such a demanding piece of research. I am grateful to the administrative staff of the School of Graduate Studies for their unending patience and help. Particular thanks go to all those individuals who agreed to share their time, experiences, feeling and knowledge with me in interviews or who helped me at various stages of the field research to complete this thesis. My thanks and appreciation goes also to Dr Adam Mohamed Ahmed, director of the Centre for Sudanese and International Studies in Khartoum, Sudan, who facilitated carrying my field research and access to research respondents in Sudan. I would like to thank all my family for their generous support and for helping me get this far, beginning with my dad and my brother Faraj, who passed away last year after impatiently waiting for this moment and before seeing this achievement. Special thanks to the exceptionally wise women who inspired my life through her gritty strength, enduring faith, and boundless love, my mum for her infinite giving and support, which made the PhD process that much easier. I also would like to vive my surest thanks and appreciation to my dear brothers who shared my emotions and have followed their own with me on every step of this work from beginning to end. I would like to acknowledge my wife, and kids, Ala, Anas and Aws, who have endured my physical and often mental absence for too long and I thank them immensely for their love and patience. They have been endlessly patient and the unwavering force behind my motivation to complete this thesis. Finally, thanks and appreciation to all my friends for their inspiration, positive influence, love, motivation and support. vi List of Abbreviations AU African Union AUPD African Union High-level Panel on Darfur CAQDA Computer-Assisted
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