Title: a TRANSMISSION-VIRULENCE EVOLUTIONARY TRADE-OFF
1 Title: A TRANSMISSION-VIRULENCE EVOLUTIONARY TRADE-OFF EXPLAINS 2 ATTENUATION OF HIV-1 IN UGANDA 3 Short title: EVOLUTION OF VIRULENCE IN HIV 4 François Blanquart1, Mary Kate Grabowski2, Joshua Herbeck3, Fred Nalugoda4, David 5 Serwadda4,5, Michael A. Eller6, 7, Merlin L. Robb6,7, Ronald Gray2,4, Godfrey Kigozi4, Oliver 6 Laeyendecker8, Katrina A. Lythgoe1,9, Gertrude Nakigozi4, Thomas C. Quinn8, Steven J. 7 Reynolds8, Maria J. Wawer2, Christophe Fraser1 8 1. MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease 9 Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom 10 2. Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, 11 Baltimore, MD, USA 12 3. International Clinical Research Center, Department of Global Health, University of 13 Washington, Seattle, WA, USA 14 4. Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda 15 5. School of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda 16 6. U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, 17 MD, USA 18 7. Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA 19 8. Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of 20 Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA 21 9. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom 22 23 Abstract 24 Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as 25 a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. 26 We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in 27 Uganda.
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