ABSTRACT
EVALUATING HOLOCENE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN THE BALTIC REGION USING OXYGEN ISOTOPES OF LACUSTRINE CARBONATE FROM ESTONIA
Carolyn Fortney, M.S. Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences Northern Illinois University, 2016 Nathan D. Stansell, Director
Oxygen isotopes derived from authigenic carbonate from open lake systems record variations in seasonal precipitation source. This study focuses on the sediment record from
Lake Nuudsaku in southern Estonia to evaluate how winter versus summer precipitation has changed throughout the Holocene as a result of fluctuating North Atlantic Ocean conditions, primarily the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Estonia receives precipitation with a lower
δ18O value from the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea during the winter months. In contrast, during the summer months Estonia receives precipitation with greater δ18O values from warmer North Atlantic waters and from the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. Therefore, lower δ18O values in the carbonate record were interpreted as periods of time in which there were increases in the amount of winter precipitation. Oxygen isotope data indicate relatively wet winters during the early Holocene (9960 to 8800 cal yr BP) followed by a shift toward drier winters during the middle of the Holocene (8800 to 4200 cal yr BP). The late Holocene
(4200 cal yr BP to the present) was characterized by the wettest winters recorded in the oxygen isotope record. The periods of increased winter precipitation in the Baltic region generally coincided with periods of increased NAO index between 5200 cal yr BP and 1000 cal yr BP. There was an inverse relationship between winter precipitation and NAO index during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (900 to 100 cal yr BP). The positive relationship between NAO index and winter precipitation in Northern Europe is present once again in the modern setting and has persisted since at least AD 1950. NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY DEKALB, ILLINOIS
AUGUST 2016
EVALUATING HOLOCENE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN THE
BALTIC REGION USING OXYGEN ISOTOPES OF LACUSTRINE
CARBONATE FROM ESTONIA
BY
CAROLYN FORTNEY ©2016 Carolyn Fortney
A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE
MASTER OF SCIENCE
DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL GEOSCIENCES
Thesis Director: Nathan D. Stansell ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank my advisor, Nathan Stansell, for providing me the opportunity, knowledge and material to make this project possible. I also thank my committee members
Justin Dodd and Eric Klein for their guidance and support. In addition, I would like to thank
Jaanus Terasmaa, Tanel Vainura, Kristyn Hill, Elizabeth Olson, Anna Buczynska, Matthew
Finkenbinder, Sten Sarap, Evelin Stansell, Luule Lauk and the Paavel family for additional assistance and Northern Illinois University’s Geology and Environmental Geosciences
Department for financial support to complete fieldwork and lab work.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF FIGURES ...... vi
Chapter
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1
Site Description ...... 4
Chemical Environment of Lake Nuudsaku ...... 9
2. METHODS ...... 11
Fieldwork ...... 11
Analytical Work ...... 12
Age Model ...... 12
Physical and Chemical Composition ...... 15
Delta Notation ...... 17
Water Isotopes ...... 17
Calcite Isotopes ...... 18
Paleo-Water Isotopes ...... 19
3. RESULTS ...... 21
Physical Changes in Lake Nuudsaku ...... 21
Age Model ...... 21
X-Ray Diffraction Results ...... 24
Principal Component Analysis ...... 24 iv Chapter Page
SEM Images ...... 24
Biogenic Silica ...... 28
Loss on Ignition ...... 28
Water Chemistry Data ...... 28
Bathymetric Profile ...... 30
Modern Water Isotopes ...... 30
Calcite Isotopes ...... 31
Calculated Paleo-Water Composition ...... 34
4. DISCUSSION ...... 37
North Atlantic Influence ...... 37
North Atlantic Oscillation ...... 37
Applications of Paleolimnology ...... 38
Calcite Precipitation ...... 39
Sediment Constituents ...... 41
Lake Hydrology ...... 42
Relationship Between δ13C and δ18O ...... 42
Global Meteoric Water Line ...... 43
δ18O Drivers in Lake Nuudsaku ...... 44
Temperature ...... 44
Seasonal Precipitation Changes ...... 46
Paleo-water Composition ...... 47
Oxygen Isotope Record ...... 48 v Chapter Page
9963 to 8800 cal yr BP ...... 48
8800 to 4200 cal yr BP ...... 48
4200 to 1200 cal yr BP ...... 48
1200 cal yr BP to Present ...... 49
Regional Climate Reconstructions ...... 49
NAO Reconstructions ...... 52
NAO Between 5200 and 300 cal yr BP ...... 52
NAO Between 900 and -65 cal yr BP ...... 54
Deviations from NAO Index Records ...... 55
Other Baltic Region Climate Drivers ...... 57
Societal Importance ...... 58
5. CONCLUSIONS ...... 59
REFERENCES ...... 61
APPENDIX ...... 68
LAKE NUUDSAKU DATA ...... 68
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1. Seasonal changes in precipitation source and 18O values in Estonia ...... 2
2. Location of Estonia in the Baltic Region ...... 5
3. Temperature variations in Tartu and Karksi-Nuia ...... 6
4. Precipitation variations in Tartu and Karksi-Nuia ...... 7
5. Bathymetric profile of Lake Nuudsaku ...... 8
6. Water chemistry data from August 2014 ...... 10
7. Water chemistry data from May 2015 ...... 10
8. Images of sediment cores from Lake Nuudsaku ...... 13
9. Temperature and lake level changes in Lake Nuudsaku ...... 22
10. Age-depth model of Lake Nuudsaku’s sediment core ...... 23
11. Intensities measured using X-Ray diffraction...... 25
12. Principal Component 2 plotted against Ca and Zn ...... 26
13. SEM image of calcite and diatoms from Lake Nuudsaku ...... 27
14. Biogenic silica, organic matter, calcium carbonate and bulk density variations with
time ...... 29
15. Water 18O and 2H values from Estonia ...... 32
16. Calcite 18O values ...... 33
17. Calcite 18O vs. 13C values ...... 35
18. Calculated paleo-water 18O values ...... 36 vii Figure Page
19. Holocene atmospheric temperature reconstruction from the Baltic region ...... 45
20. Lake Nuudsaku δ18O values compared to NAO index since 5200 cal yr BP ...... 53
21. Lake Nuudsaku δ18O values compared to NAO index since 900 cal yr BP ...... 56 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant driver of the regional distribution of winter precipitation in Europe (Hurrell 1995; Hurrell and van Loon, 1997).
NAO indices are currently positively correlated with winter precipitation in Northern Europe
(Bladé et al., 2012). Recent intensification of the positive mean state of the NAO correlates with increased winter precipitation in Estonia since 1951 (Jaagus, 2006). Climate models predict that the Baltic region will continue to experience wetter winters in the future (IPCC,
2014), which could be amplified by further persistence of positive mean state NAO conditions in the coming decades (López-Moreno et al., 2011).
The primary sources of precipitation in Estonia are from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea (Fig. 1), which supply the Baltic region with precipitation all year (Gimeno et al., 2010). Estonia also receives precipitation from a southern source (Mediterranean Sea) during the summer months (Gimeno et al., 2010). Precipitation transported from the North
Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea has much lower δ18O values than precipitation transported from the Mediterranean Sea (Bowen, 2002). The seasonal changes in precipitation δ18O values drive changes in the mean oxygen isotopic composition of water (Talbot, 1990) in
Lake Nuudsaku, a hydrologically open, groundwater-fed lake in Southern Estonia. As a result, authigenic calcite in equilibrium with the lake water also records changes in precipitation
δ18O (McKenzie et al., 1985; Gasse et al., 1987). 2
(A) 19°E 60°N
Baltic Sea Tallinn
Estonia Russia
Nuudsaku Lake
Latvia January (B) 19°E 60°N Baltic Sea Tallinn
Estonia
Nuudsaku Lake
Latvia July 18O of Seasonal Precipitation (‰)
-9.9 to-8.9 -9 to-7.9 -8 to-6.9 -7 to -6 -18.9 -17.9to -18 to-16.9 -17-15.9 to -16-14.9 to -15 to-13.9 -14 to-12.9 -13 -11.9to -12 -10.9to -11 to -10 Figure 1: Seasonal change in precipitation source and 18O values in Estonia. (A) Distribution of 18O values of January precipitation in Estonia (modified from Bowen, 2013). Arrows depict source of winter precipitation (North Atlantic and Baltic Sea); (B) Distribution of 18O values of July precipitation in Estonia (modified from Bowen, 2013). Arrows depict source of summer precipitation (Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea in addition to North Atlantic and Baltic Sea). 3
The first goal of this study was to utilize the 18O values of authigenic calcite from the sediment record of Lake Nuudsaku to reconstruct variations in the relative amounts of winter and summer precipitation since 9960 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), relative to
AD 1950. Because average winter precipitation 18O values are much lower (-14.6‰) than average summer precipitation 18O values (-6.1‰), decreases in calcite 18O values from
Lake Nuudsaku were interpreted as relative increases in winter precipitation relative to summer precipitation. The modern 18O value of calcite (-12.5‰) is lower than much of the previous 18O values from the sediment record, indicating that Estonia is currently receiving more winter precipitation than it has since at least 9960 cal yr BP. These changes in seasonal precipitation were compared to other regional paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the spatial variation in precipitation throughout the Baltic region since 9960 cal yr BP.
The second goal of this study was to increase the spatial resolution of proxy records in the Baltic region and to better understand, qualitatively, how atmospheric circulation patterns attributed to NAO variability have driven past changes in winter precipitation in the Baltic region by comparing the 18O record from Lake Nuudsaku to existing NAO index reconstructions (Trouet et al., 2009; Olsen et al., 2012). Presently, the mean positive state of the NAO provides the Lake Nuudsaku sediment record with lower 18O values, associated with increased winter precipitation relative to summer precipitation in the Baltic region.
Better understanding the relationship between NAO indices and Baltic region climate in the past will allow for more accurate predictions of future changes in regional precipitation. All raw data collected during this study are presented in Appendix. 4
Site Description
Estonia is located in the Baltic region of subarctic Northern European (Fig. 2) and receives warm, maritime air from the North Atlantic, resulting in a temperate climate.
Average (between AD 2000 and 2012) temperatures (Fig. 3) in Tartu (~100 km northwest of
Lake Nuudsaki) ranged from -3.5°C in the winter months (DJF) to 16.3°C in the summer months (JJA) and average precipitation amounts (Fig. 4) range from 44.2 mm per month in the winter to 76.7 mm per month in the summer (World Weather Online). Weather station data recorded in Karksi Nuia (~12 km south of Lake Nuudsaku) between June 2015 and May
2016 revealed that average temperature ranged between -2.1°C in the winter of 2016 and
16.4°C in the summer of 2015 and precipitation ranged from 53.8 mm per month in the summer of 2015 and 59.6 mm per month in the winter of 2016 (Fig. 3; Fig. 4).
Lake Nuudsaku is located in Viljandi County in south-central Estonia (58° 11’ 47” N,
25° 37’ 34” E) at an elevation of ~100 m above sea level. The lake reaches a maximum depth of 5.1m and is ~500 m long by ~160 m wide. There are two streams that connect Lake
Nuudsaku to other lakes in the region, such as Lake Müüri (Fig. 5). There is a hill on the southeast side of the lake, but most of the topography around Lake Nuudsaku is relatively flat, which likely gives the lake a relatively small watershed. Agricultural fields cover the region immediately surrounding Lake Nuudsaku.
Lake Nuudsaku rests in Quaternary-aged glacial and fluvioglacial deposits associated with till formations from numerous glacial periods throughout the Quaternary (Raukas and
Kajak, 1995). The Scandinavian Ice Sheet receded from Estonia by 12,000 cal yr BP, ending the most recent glacial period (Kalm, 2006; Rinterknecht et al., 2006), which resulted in the North Atlantic Ocean
Baltic Sea
Figure 2: Location of Estonia in the Baltic Region. Lake Nuudsaku’s location is highlighed by the star. 5