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Download Thesis This electronic thesis or dissertation has been downloaded from the King’s Research Portal at https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Gill, Amandeep Singh Awarding institution: King's College London The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without proper acknowledgement. END USER LICENCE AGREEMENT Unless another licence is stated on the immediately following page this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Non Commercial: You may not use this work for commercial purposes. No Derivative Works - You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you receive permission from the author. Your fair dealings and other rights are in no way affected by the above. Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 04. Oct. 2021 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Amandeep Singh Gill Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for a degree of Doctor of Philosophy to King’s College London University of London 2016 1 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums 2 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Abstract The thesis asks if governments "learn" about nuclear weapons in dialogue with other governments and how new areas of nuclear learning such as nuclear security emerge and get consolidated in multilateral forums. A model of nuclear learning is proposed bringing together insights from the fields of sociology of knowledge, organisational learning, decision-making, policy learning and international relations. This model, which integrates power among other explanatory factors, is tested against evidence from nuclear history and from the current practice of nuclear negotiations. The outcome builds on the efforts of Joseph Nye in the 1980s to examine nuclear learning in the bilateral Soviet-U.S. context, updates and extends nuclear learning to the multilateral field and underscores nuclear security as a new area of nuclear learning in its own right. 3 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Acknowledgments This research project would not have taken off without the encouragement of Lynn Eden, David Holloway, WPS Sidhu and Anand Narasimhan. It could not have been sustained without the support of my supervisors, Professor Wyn Bowen and Sir Lawrence Freedman. And it would not have reached fruition without the understanding of my wife, Ashma, daughter, Bani, son, UjJay and mother, Harbans. Finally, I want to acknowledge the contribution of my fellow nuclear learners, many of whom generously shared their experience and insights and showed incredible sympathy for my struggle to balance work and research. 4 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages Title Page 1 Abstract 3 Acknowledgements 4 Table of Contents 5 List of Tables and Figures 6 Abbreviations 7 - 9 Chapter 1 Introduction 11 - 36 Chapter 2 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums: A Conceptual Framework 37 - 68 Chapter 3 The Birth and Practice of Multilateral Nuclear Learning, 1945-1964 69 - 112 Chapter 4 A History of the Idea of Nuclear Security, 1945-2009 113 - 138 Chapter 5 The 2010 Nuclear Security Summit: Realising a Forum for 139 – 168 Nuclear Learning Chapter 6 The 2012 Nuclear Security Summit at Seoul 169 - 198 Chapter 7 The 2014 Nuclear Security Summit at The Hague 199 - 228 Chapter 8 Coming Full Circle: The 2016 Washington Nuclear Security Summit 229 - 250 Chapter 9 Conclusion: The Past as Future of Nuclear Learning 251 - 282 Bibliography 283 - 320 Annexes 321 - 369 5 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums List of Tables and Figures List of Tables Table 2.1: A Model of International Learning 64 Table 3.1: Nuclear learning in the London talks 1954-57 93-94 Table 3.2: Nuclear learning in TNDC-McCloy Zorin talks 1958-61 98 Table 3.3: Nuclear learning in the ENDC 1962-64 109-110 Table 4.1: Nuclear Security: Evolution of an idea 138 Table 5.1: Schedule of Meetings for the 2010 NSS 145 Table 5.2 Nuclear learning in the Washington Summit 167-168 Table 6.1: Schedule of Meetings for the 2012 NSS 172 Table 6.2: Assessment of National Progress Reports, 190-192 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit Table 6.3 Nuclear learning in the Seoul Summit 198 Table 7.1: Schedule of Meetings for the 2014 NSS 203 Table 7.2 Nuclear learning in The Hague Summit 227 Table 8.1: Schedule of Meetings for the 2016 NSS 230 Table 8.2: Assessing learning in the Nuclear Security Summits 250 Table 9.1: The drivers of nuclear learning 272 List of Figures Figure 2.1: 4Is Learning Spiral: From Ideas to Institutions 46 Figure 9.1: Nuclear Learning and security regimes 278 (modified from Nye, Jr. 1987; additions in bold) 6 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Abbreviations ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency ADA Atomic Development Authority AEC Atomic Energy Commission ATT Arms Trade Treaty BTWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention CWC Chemical Weapons Convention CCW Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons CD Conference on Disarmament CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CPPNM Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ENDC Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee FMCT Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty GCD General and Complete Disarmament GICNT Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism HEU High-Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile ICSANT International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism IED Improvised Explosive Device IND Improvised Nuclear Device 7 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces IPPAS International Physical Protection Advisory Service ITDB Incident and Trafficking Database ISIS/L Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/the Levant ITWG International Technical Working Group MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NAM Non-Aligned Movement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NEST Nuclear Emergency Search Team NNWS Non-Nuclear Weapon States NSAs Negative Security Assurances NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NSS Nuclear Security Summit NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons OEWG Open-Ended Working Group OSART Operational Safety and Review Team PALs Permissive Action Links PAROS Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space PNE Peaceful Nuclear Explosion PSI Proliferation Security Initiative PTBT Partial Test Ban Treaty RDD Radiological Dispersal Device 8 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums ROK Republic of Korea SDI Strategic Defence Initiative START Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty TNDC Ten Nation Disarmament Committee UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNDC United Nations Disarmament Commission UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC/R United Nations Security Council/Resolution UNSCEAR UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation U.S. United States USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction 9 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums 10 Nuclear Learning in Multilateral Forums Chapter 1 Introduction Not ideas but materials and ideal interests directly govern men’s conduct. Yet very frequently the “world images” that have been created by “ideas” have, like switchmen, determined the tracks along which action has been pushed by the dynamics of interest. MaX Weber The research question underpinning this thesis is the role of multilateralism in international learning on nuclear weapons related policies. While there could be several approaches to studying change in international policy, this thesis seeks to explore the explanatory power of the learning model of change. The field chosen for applying this model is nuclear weapons related policy. Since nuclear weapons entered the international arena in 1945, governments have struggled to manage the political and security dilemmas surrounding these weapons in the backdrop of shifts in politics, science and society. National political, diplomatic and scientific elites have learnt about nuclear weapons including possibly through interaction with elites from other countries. While learning has been applied to international regimes on economic development, environment and trade, there has been insufficient study of the what and how of nuclear learning in multi-player forums. Nuclear learning has been studied so far in either a country-specific or a bilateral context; the prime examples being Joseph Nye's study of learning in the Soviet-U.S. context in the early 1980s and Emmanuel Adler’s 1992 study of the role of the U.S. arms control community in learning within the U.S. and bilaterally with the Soviet Union. This needs extension to the multilateral context with solid case studies, which also showcase new areas (such as nuclear security) and new actors (such as China, India and Pakistan)
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