North London Sub-Regional Transport Plan 2016 Update Enter Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 Update

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North London Sub-regional Transport Plan 2016 update Enter Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

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Introduction

Sub-regional Transport Plans (SRTP) for North London

When the North Sub-Regional The sub-regional process is an Challenges in every sub-region ongoing programme, enabling Transport Plan was first developed in 2010 it helped to translate the TfL to work closely with Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) goals, boroughs to address strategic challenges and outcomes at a sub- issues, progress medium-longer regional level. Improve air quality to Transform the role of Meet CO2 targets term priorities and also respond It was agreed with boroughs that while meet and exceed legal cycling and walking in the requirements and ensure sub-region to changing circumstances. all MTS challenges must be considered across London, and addressed locally health benefits for through Local Implementation Plans Londoners (LIPs), there were some which would benefit from having a concerted effort at North London-specific challenges a sub-regional level. Consequently, the challenges of

improving air quality, reducing CO2 emissions and achieving the targets for – and desired results from – an increase Facilitate and respond Relieve crowding on the Manage highway in the mode share of cycling and walking to growth, especially in public transport network congestion and make were all identified as challenges for Brent Cross/Cricklewood more efficient use of the all sub-regions. In addition, five other and the Upper Lee Valley road network challenges were identified and agreed specifically for the north sub-region.

Enhance cvonnectivity Improve access to key and the attractiveness of locations and jobs and orbital public transport services

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Introduction

Sub-regional Transport Plans (SRTP) for North London

The focus of this year’s plans This ‘story’ includes a comprehensive Projects and schemes There has, of course, been significant analysis of recent population and engagement with Boroughs and sub- Since 2010, the North sub-region has Previous updates to the Sub-Regional employment growth, changes in travel regions during the past year to identify seen significant change. Population Transport Plan included a look behaviour and areas where the transport key priorities for investment, and to growth has been faster than expected, forward to identify the potential network will have to change to cope inform the development of major placing greater demand on the transport projects and schemes that could with the challenge of future growth. schemes. This process will continue, network. The sub-region needs to be delivered to address the sub- particularly as part of the preparation increase its rate of housing delivery This updated Story of Growth for each region’s transport challenges. of the new MTS, informed by the to cope with a growing population, sub-region has the following purpose: However, unlike previous years, we information set out in this document. with effective transport links critical • As a tool to help engage Boroughs are now in a unique environment to achieve this. The way that people in the preparation of the new where TfL will have a new funding travel has changed too, with growing Mayors Transport Strategy, settlement, as well as the recent arrival demand for rail and cycling in particular. particularly in the development of a new Mayor who will have his As we now have a new Mayor, we of new priorities and projects; own priorities about how to allocate the available funding. It is therefore will now need to prepare a new • To help Boroughs to develop not appropriate to assume that all London Plan and a new Mayor’s their own priorities for transport transport schemes recently considered Transport Strategy, with a new set of investment, including the will fit with the new Mayor's priorities. objectives and priorities for London. development of their LIPS; To inform this process, we will need For this reason, there is no map or to update our understanding of the • To inform Borough’s spatial list of projects in this year's plans. medium to longer-term challenges planning activities, including for London and the sub-regions. updates to Local Plans; This is the key purpose of this year’s • To assist TfL in developing Sub-Regional Transport Plans – to priorities for business planning. provide a comprehensive update on the ‘Story of Growth’ for each sub-region.

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Contents

Story of Growth Click on any of the six categories below to explore how the sub-region has changed, is expected to change, and the implications for how the transport network needs to adapt to Population Employment Mode and movement reflect this.

Network capacity Liveability Future growth and connectivity Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

Population Employment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Population Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

London's population has been increasing much faster than previously In 2011 London had anticipated, increasing 420,000 more the demand for travel people than expected The current Mayors Transport in earlier estimates Strategy (2010) was developed using population projections which underestimated the true level of population growth across London population growth – forecast vs actual London. The rate of population growth, and therefore the number of daily trips that are made, has Population been approximately twice the level which the MTS was based upon. 10,500,000 This much faster rate of growth 10,000,000 GLA 2013 means that the demand for forecast transport is already much higher 9,500,000 today than forecast, with crowding and congestion a serious issue 9,000,000 across many parts of the network. Actual 8,500,000 population In order to maintain quality growth of life and support economic 8,000,000 growth across the Capital, it will be necessary to bring forward 7,500,000 MTS 2010 investment in the capacity of the forecast transport network much sooner 7,000,000 than forecast in the MTS, to enable 6,500,000 people to get to work, businesses to access their customers and 6,000,000 suppliers, and residents to access local services without experiencing 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 significant overcrowding on public transport and congestion on the city's highways.

Population growth – London trip growth – forecast vs actual forecast vs actual Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

London's population has been increasing much faster than previously The growth in trips made anticipated, increasing has been twice as high as the demand for travel that expected since the 2010 The current Mayors Transport Mayors Transport Strategy Strategy (2010) was developed using population projections which underestimated the true level of population growth across London trip growth – forecast vs actual London. The rate of population growth, and therefore the number of daily trips that are made, has Index 2006 = 100 been approximately twice the level 120 which the MTS was based upon. This much faster rate of growth 115 means that the demand for transport is already much higher today than forecast, with crowding 110 Observed and congestion a serious issue across many parts of the network. 105 In order to maintain quality of life and support economic MTS 2010 growth across the Capital, it will 100 forecast be necessary to bring forward investment in the capacity of the 95 transport network much sooner than forecast in the MTS, to enable people to get to work, businesses 90 to access their customers and suppliers, and residents to access 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 local services without experiencing significant overcrowding on public transport and congestion on the city's highways.

Population growth – London trip growth – forecast vs actual forecast vs actual Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Some areas have seen very The sub-region's high levels of population population is 9% growth, placing strain on higher than expected certain parts of the network in earlier estimates Population growth in north London has exceeded the London average, with growth in all Boroughs in Population growth 2001 – 2011 excess of 13% between 2001 and 2011. The rate of growth has been faster than previously forecast, 20% generating additional demand for transport above that expected in 18% the Mayors Transport Strategy. In terms of absolute growth, the 16% southern parts of Waltham Forest, much of the Upper Lea Valley in 14% Enfield, and western Barnet have seen large increases, driving growth 12% in the demand for public transport in particular (as set out in the 10% Mode and Movement section). 8% Growth has been higher than expected at Walthamstow, 6% Leyton, Wood Green and in the Upper Lea Valley, but has 4% been lower than anticipated in the western areas of Barnet, 2% where significant development opportunities exist. This is 0% expected to change as the pace Waltham ForestHaringey Enfield Barnet East Total North Total West Total Central Total London South Total of development in many of these key regeneration areas increases.

Population growth Absolute population Difference between 2001 – 2011 growth 2001 – 2011 actual and forecast Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Some areas have seen very Absolute population growth 2001 – 2011 Absolute population growth high levels of population MSOA (2001 - 2011) growth, placing strain on up to 7,500 N 5 Kms certain parts of the network up to 1,800 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 1,200 Population growth in north London up to 800 has exceeded the London average, up to 400 with growth in all Boroughs in -3,000 to 0 excess of 13% between 2001 and 2011. The rate of growth has been faster than previously forecast, generating additional demand for transport above that expected in the Mayors Transport Strategy. In terms of absolute growth, the southern parts of Waltham Forest, much of the Upper Lea Valley in Enfield, and western Barnet have seen large increases, driving growth in the demand for public transport in particular (as set out in the Mode and Movement section). Growth has been higher than expected at Walthamstow, Leyton, Wood Green and in the Upper Lea Valley, but has been lower than anticipated in the western areas of Barnet, where significant development opportunities exist. This is expected to change as the pace of development in many of these key regeneration areas increases.

Population growth Absolute population Difference between 2001 – 2011 growth 2001 – 2011 actual and forecast Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Some areas have seen very Actual increase in high levels of population % difference between actual and forecast population growth 2007 – 2013 population by Ward growth, placing strain on (actual 2013 - forecast 2013 in 2007) certain parts of the network N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles over 15 Population growth in north London up to 15 has exceeded the London average, up to 10 with growth in all Boroughs in up to 5 excess of 13% between 2001 and under 0 2011. The rate of growth has been faster than previously forecast, generating additional demand for transport above that expected in the Mayors Transport Strategy. In terms of absolute growth, the southern parts of Waltham Forest, much of the Upper Lea Valley in Enfield, and western Barnet have seen large increases, driving growth in the demand for public transport in particular (as set out in the Mode and Movement section). Growth has been higher than expected at Walthamstow, Leyton, Wood Green and in the Upper Lea Valley, but has been lower than anticipated in the western areas of Barnet, where significant development opportunities exist. This is expected to change as the pace of development in many of these key regeneration areas increases.

Population growth Absolute population Difference between 2001 – 2011 growth 2001 – 2011 actual and forecast Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Housing has failed to keep Population growth in the sub- up with population growth, region has been twice the increasing household size rate of housing growth Across London, the average number of people per household started to increase after 2001 for the first time since the 1950s, which is a direct result of the supply of housing Change in housing stock 2001 – 2011 failing to keep up with the rate of population growth. Increasing the 20% rate of housing delivery across the sub-region will be key to addressing 18% affordability issues, reducing Population overcrowding and maintaining 16% growth London's competitiveness. Transport connectivity and 14% capacity is becoming increasingly important to unlocking new 12% homes, and is something which is now a key consideration in the 10% assessment of future transport investment decisions. 8% Whilst the sub-region's population has grown at 16%, the growth in the 6% number of homes has been just half that, resulting in the second largest 4% increase in average household size of any sub-region in London. 2%

Haringey has delivered the highest 0% number of new homes, with Haringey Enfield Waltham ForestBarnet Central East North West South London lower levels of housing delivery in Barnet and Waltham Forest. There may be opportunities for future densification across all Boroughs in the sub-region, particularly around key transport nodes (considered further in the Future Growth section).

Change in Change in average housing stock household size Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Housing has failed to keep up with population growth, Average household size has increasing household size increased by 0.16 persons Across London, the average number across the sub-region of people per household started to increase after 2001 for the first time since the 1950s, which is a direct result of the supply of housing Change in average household size 2001 – 2011 failing to keep up with the rate of population growth. Increasing the 12% rate of housing delivery across the sub-region will be key to addressing affordability issues, reducing overcrowding and maintaining 10% London's competitiveness. Transport connectivity and capacity is becoming increasingly 8% important to unlocking new homes, and is something which is now a key consideration in the 6% assessment of future transport investment decisions. Whilst the sub-region's population 4% has grown at 16%, the growth in the number of homes has been just half that, resulting in the second largest 2% increase in average household size of any sub-region in London.

Haringey has delivered the highest 0% number of new homes, with Waltham ForestBarnet Haringey Enfield North West East South Central London lower levels of housing delivery in Barnet and Waltham Forest. There may be opportunities for future densification across all Boroughs in the sub-region, particularly around key transport nodes (considered further in the Future Growth section).

Change in Change in average housing stock household size Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Most of the North's population live within areas where access to public 58% of the transport could be improved sub-region's The majority of the sub-region's population live population live in areas where the Public Transport Accessibility Level in PTALs 1 and 2 (PTAL) is scored as 1 or 2. These are areas where connectivity by public transport is at its lowest. There is scope for the public transport Share of population and growth by Public Transport Accessibility Level network to be enhanced where it serves existing communities, to support mode shift away from 70% Share of 2013 the private car and support the population movement of greater numbers of people, particularly as the 60% Share of population growth 2001 – 2013 population of the sub-region continues to grow. 50% Share of housing growth 2005 – 2011 Housing delivery in the sub-region has been slightly more focused 40% on more accessible locations by public transport, although just 20% of all new development has come 30% forward in the most accessible places. As the rate of housing 20% delivery has been slower than the rate of population growth, it 10% has not been possible to contain population growth solely within new development, so it has instead 0% PTALs 1 and 2 PTALs 3 and 4 PTALs 5 and 6 occured across all parts of the sub- region, with the majority of growth occuring in PTALs 1 and 2. By expanding the rate of housing delivery in more accessible public transport nodes, it will be easier to shape more sustainable travel behaviour, reduce highway congestion and support London's future economic growth. Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Increasing population Absolute Population density has driven higher Population density (excluding open space) 2011 Density by ha levels of public transport by LSOA 2011 use, with potential N 5 Kms over 190 0 1 2 3 Miles for further growth up to 190 up to 140 Population density across the up to 110 sub-region varies significantly from up to 90 Haringey and southern Waltham up to 65 Forest, which are more densely populated, to outer Barnet and Enfield, which contains large areas of lower density semi detached housing. There are also pockets of high population density around the Upper Lea Valley and on the Northern line corridor to Edgware. Across London, there is a positive relationship between the density of development and propensity to travel by public transport, as denser areas typically have access to more extensive public transport access, and the costs of highway congestion are generally higher. As the population of the sub-region continues to densify, it will be necessary to further improve the public transport network to support growth and encourage continued mode shift away from private vehicles to reduce congestion. There are some areas in the Upper Lea Valley and in western Barnet where the population density would be high enough to support a higher proportion of trips by public transport or active modes but private vehicles still form a high proportion of mode share. There is scope to improve the connectivity of the network in these locations to support the shift onto other modes. Population Density and mode Density and mode density 2011 of travel to work of travel to work Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Increasing population Absolute Population density has driven higher Pop density and mode of travel to work 2011 Density by ha levels of public transport by LSOA 2011 use, with potential N 5 Kms over 190 0 1 2 3 Miles for further growth up to 190 up to 140 Population density across the up to 110 sub-region varies significantly from up to 90 Haringey and southern Waltham up to 65 Forest, which are more densely Levels of commuting by populated, to outer Barnet and public or active transport Enfield, which contains large areas by MSOA of lower density semi detached Above average housing. There are also pockets of high population density around the Upper Lea Valley and on the Northern line corridor to Edgware. Across London, there is a positive relationship between the density of development and propensity to travel by public transport, as denser areas typically have access to more extensive public transport access, and the costs of highway congestion are generally higher. As the population of the sub-region continues to densify, it will be necessary to further improve the public transport network to support growth and encourage continued mode shift away from private vehicles to reduce congestion. There are some areas in the Upper Lea Valley and in western Barnet where the population density would be high enough to support a higher proportion of trips by public transport or active modes but private vehicles still form a high proportion of mode share. There is scope to improve the connectivity of the network in these locations to support the shift onto other modes. Population Density and mode Density and mode density 2011 of travel to work of travel to work Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Population

Increasing population density has driven higher People that live in levels of public transport London's most dense areas use, with potential are three times less likely for further growth to travel to work by car Population density across the sub-region varies significantly from Population density and mode of travel to work 2011 – Greater London Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, which are more densely populated, to outer Barnet and 50% Enfield, which contains large areas Least dense quintile of lower density semi detached 45% housing. There are also pockets 2nd quintile of high population density around 40% 3rd quintile the Upper Lea Valley and on the 4th quintile Northern line corridor to Edgware. 35% Across London, there is a positive Most dense quintile relationship between the density 30% of development and propensity to travel by public transport, as 25% denser areas typically have access to more extensive public transport 20% access, and the costs of highway congestion are generally higher. As 15% the population of the sub-region continues to densify, it will be necessary to further improve the 10% public transport network to support growth and encourage continued 5% mode shift away from private vehicles to reduce congestion. 0% Walk Cycle Car Bus Underground/Rail There are some areas in the Upper Lea Valley and in western Barnet where the population density would be high enough to support a higher proportion of trips by public transport or active modes but private vehicles still form a high proportion of mode share. There is scope to improve the connectivity of the network in these locations to support the shift onto other modes. Population Density and mode Density and mode density 2011 of travel to work of travel to work Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

PopulationEmployment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Employment Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

London is the powerhouse economy of the UK, Total workforce with strong employment jobs have increased growth and an increasing by over 1 million in share of GVA London since 2004 London has one of the most dynamic economies in the world, and is consistently rated as one of the premier World Cities which attracts Growth in workplace jobs 2004 – 2015 significant flows of international capital, people and ideas. The Capital's employment growth since 2004 has 125 consistently outstripped all other regions of the UK, with the rate of growth since 2011 nearly three London times faster than that of England 120 or the South East. As a result, London's share of England's Gross Value Added, which is a measure of economic output, has increased 115 from 23% in 2001 to 26% in 2013. As London's economy has continued to evolve, it has seen strong growth in high valued-added sectors such as 110 professional and scientific activities, South East which includes activities as diverse as Rest of England managment consultancy, architecture, 105 and research and development. These sectors are typically located in areas with the best public transport connectivity, and as they have grown, 100 more people are travelling to work by public transport, particularly by rail. Conversely, as sectors which are less well served by public transport, such 95 as manufacturing, have contracted, 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 the number of people driving to work has decreased. However, a significant number of jobs created have been in local services such as health and education. As these tend to be more local, with much of this employment in Outer London, the car and bus still play an important role in accessing these growing sectors. Growth in London's share of Employment growth workplace jobs (GVA) 1997-2013 in London by sector Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

London is the powerhouse economy of the UK, with strong employment London's Gross growth and an increasing Value Added has share of GVA increased by over London has one of the most dynamic 60% since 2003 economies in the world, and is consistently rated as one of the premier World Cities which attracts significant flows of international capital, people and ideas. The Capital's London's share of Gross Value Added (GVA) 1997 – 2013 employment growth since 2004 has consistently outstripped all other regions of the UK, with the rate 27% of growth since 2011 nearly three times faster than that of England 26% or the South East. As a result, London's share of England's Gross Value Added, which is a measure 25% of economic output, has increased from 23% in 2001 to 26% in 2013. 24% As London's economy has continued to evolve, it has seen strong growth in high valued-added sectors such as 23% professional and scientific activities, which includes activities as diverse as managment consultancy, architecture, 22% and research and development. These sectors are typically located in 21% areas with the best public transport connectivity, and as they have grown, more people are travelling to work by 20% public transport, particularly by rail. Conversely, as sectors which are less 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 well served by public transport, such as manufacturing, have contracted, the number of people driving to work has decreased. However, a significant number of jobs created have been in local services such as health and education. As these tend to be more local, with much of this employment in Outer London, the car and bus still play an important role in accessing these growing sectors. Growth in London's share of Employment growth workplace jobs (GVA) 1997-2013 in London by sector Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

London is the powerhouse economy of the UK, with strong employment growth and an increasing share of GVA Employment growth in London by sector 2004 – 2014 London has one of the most dynamic economies in the world, and is consistently rated as one of the premier World Cities which attracts 400,000 significant flows of international capital, people and ideas. The Capital's employment growth since 2004 has 300,000 consistently outstripped all other regions of the UK, with the rate of growth since 2011 nearly three 200,000 times faster than that of England or the South East. As a result, London's share of England's Gross 100,000 Value Added, which is a measure of economic output, has increased 0 from 23% in 2001 to 26% in 2013. ProfessionalHealth and and EducationAccommodationAdministrative Information andConstruction Real Estate Arts and EntertainmentTransport andWholesale Storage andFinancial Retail andPrimary Insurance Scientific Activities and Food Communication As London's economy has continued to evolve, it has seen strong growth -100,000 in high valued-added sectors such as Manufacturing professional and scientific activities, which includes activities as diverse as -200,000 managment consultancy, architecture, and research and development. These sectors are typically located in Most common modes to employment growth sectors areas with the best public transport 57% 37% 36% 40% 56% 51% 39% 39% 50% 36% 66% 49% 52% connectivity, and as they have grown, more people are travelling to work by public transport, particularly by rail. Conversely, as sectors which are less well served by public transport, such % of employment in PTALs 5 and 6 as manufacturing, have contracted, 72% 35% 60% 52% 66% 30% 62% 53% 32% 46% 84% 30% 20% the number of people driving to work has decreased. However, a significant number of jobs created have been in local services such as health and education. As these tend to be more local, with much of this employment in Outer London, the car and bus still play an important role in accessing these growing sectors. Growth in London's share of Employment growth workplace jobs (GVA) 1997-2013 in London by sector Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Employment growth has been focused on central Total employment growth 2003 – 2013 Outer London and Inner London, which • 6% employment growth depends on excellent 2003 - 2013 access by public transport • Loss of high value added activities but growth in The excellent levels of transport local services connectivity required by high value sectors means that central London, which is the best connected part of the UK, is the most attractive part of the Capital for businesses. It is therefore the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and locations on the edge of the CAZ within Inner London, which have seen the strongest employment growth, which is only been made possible by London's extensive rail network which allows access to over 3million people and thousands of businesses within 45 Central Activities Zone minutes by public transport. • 26% employment growth 2003-2013 As the density of businesses and • Growth focused on high value added employees increases, firms benefit activities from economies of agglomeration - • Gross value added per worker twice they are in greater competition with as high as Outer London average each other, become more innovative, and are therefore more productive. Employees in central London are twice as productive as those in Outer London. By facilitating the movement of large Inner London volumes of commuters into the CAZ, public transport is therefore key to • 23% employment growth maintaining the city's competitiveness 2003-2013 and World City status. • Growth focused on high value Conversely, as lower value office added activities, particularly sectors have increasingly sought less in areas closer to the centre expensive locations outside of the • Gross value added per worker Capital, Outer London has become a Absolute Employment Growth 50% higher than outer London less attractive place for businesses. 2003-2013 by MSOA average Although there are a number of notable over 15,000 to 67,000 exceptions, most of the employment up to 15,000 growth in Outer London has therefore up to 5,000 been related to serving a growing up to 1,000 population, including sectors such as under 0 health, education and retail with the car under -1,000 and bus remaining important modes to under -5,000 support these sectors. Total employment Access to labour -14,400 to -10,000 growth 2003 – 2013 market by PT Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Employment growth has been focused on central Access to labour market by public transport and Inner London, which depends on excellent access by public transport The excellent levels of transport connectivity required by high value sectors means that central London, which is the best connected part of the UK, is the most attractive part of the Capital for businesses. It is therefore the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and locations on the edge of the CAZ within Inner London, which have seen the strongest employment growth, which is only been made possible by London's extensive rail network which allows access to over 3million people and thousands of businesses within 45 minutes by public transport. As the density of businesses and employees increases, firms benefit from economies of agglomeration - they are in greater competition with each other, become more innovative, and are therefore more productive. Employees in central London are twice as productive as those in Outer London. By facilitating the movement of large volumes of commuters into the CAZ, public transport is therefore key to Working age population (16 - 74) within 45 mins public transport maintaining the city's competitiveness travel time from zone and World City status. Data: Railplan RC2011 all PT modes AM Peak, Working age Conversely, as lower value office population: 2011 GLA Forecasts sectors have increasingly sought less over 3.0 mil expensive locations outside of the Capital, Outer London has become a up to 3.0 less attractive place for businesses. up to 2.5 Although there are a number of notable up to 2.0 exceptions, most of the employment up to 1.5 growth in Outer London has therefore up to 1.0 been related to serving a growing up to 0.8 population, including sectors such as up to 0.6 health, education and retail with the car up to 0.4 and bus remaining important modes to up to 0.2 support these sectors. Total employment Access to labour up to 0.1 mil growth 2003 – 2013 market by PT Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

The North's town centres are key centres of Employment density 2011 CAZ International centre employment, with jobs Metropolitan town centre N 5 Kms in local services now Major town centre 0 1 2 3 Miles increasingly important Safeguarded industrial land Employment Density by The North sub-region has a Workplace Zone 2011 relatively diverse economy which over 600 supports a mix of local public up to 600 services, retail, industrial activities up to 150 and logistics and transport services. up to 55 It is one of the few sub-regions up to 30 where the manufacturing sector up to 15 has been growing, albeit, relatively slowly, during the past 5 years. Much of the retail, as well as some of the public services and office activity is located within the sub-region's town centres, whilst industrial and logistics businesses tend to be located in industrial estates, much of which are protected as Strategic Industrial Land. These locations all depend on different types of transport provision, with town centres depending on buses, rail and car, and business and industrial parks relying on car as well as van and 30% of employment lorry movements. Maintaining the in the sub-region is efficiency of these networks will within or on the edge be key to the future economic performance of the sub-region. of a Town Centre

Employment Main Employment density 2011 type 2013 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

The North's town centres Main Employment type 2013 CAZ are key centres of International centre employment, with jobs Metropolitan town centre N 5 Kms in local services now Major town centre 0 1 2 3 Miles increasingly important Safeguarded industrial land Main employment type The North sub-region has a Health education relatively diverse economy which and local services supports a mix of local public services, retail, industrial activities Office based and logistics and transport services. Road dependent It is one of the few sub-regions where the manufacturing sector Other transport has been growing, albeit, relatively Retail restaurants and slowly, during the past 5 years. hotels Much of the retail, as well as some of the public services and office activity is located within the sub-region's town centres, whilst industrial and logistics businesses tend to be located in industrial estates, much of which are protected as Strategic Industrial Land. These locations all depend on different types of transport provision, with town centres depending on buses, rail and car, and business and industrial parks relying on car as well as van and The sub-region lorry movements. Maintaining the has a strong efficiency of these networks will representation in be key to the future economic performance of the sub-region. retail, health and education sectors

Employment Main Employment density 2011 type 2013 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Employment growth has slowed in recent years, The rate of employment with most growth occuring growth in the sub-region in the least accessible since 2003 has been just areas by public transport half of that in London Employment growth in the sub- region has been relatively low, with only Waltham Forest above the London average. Haringey and Employment growth 2003 – 2013 Enfield have both seen almost zero growth during the past 10 30% years. This is also reflected in the sub-region's Gross Value Added, which is similar to that of the West and South sub-regions where employment growth has also been limited. Maintaining 20% connectivity by both public transport and highway will be vital to support future employment growth in the sub-region. 10% Much of the employment growth in the sub-region has taken place in the least accessible areas by public transport. Those areas where there has been growth of at least 0% 50 employees since 2003, with an Haringey Enfield Barnet Waltham ForestSouth North West Central East Outer MetropolitanLondon Area average PTAL of two or less are shown in the map. These areas are spread throughout the sub- region, which has implications for future travel patterns and the ability of those without a car to access growing employment opportunities.

Employment growth Growth in GVA Employment growth Employment growth in 2003 – 2013 by sub-region 2003 – 2013 areas with low PTAL Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Employment growth has slowed in recent years, with most growth occuring in the least accessible areas by public transport Employment growth in the sub- region has been relatively low, with only Waltham Forest above Growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) by sub-region the London average. Haringey and Enfield have both seen almost zero growth during the past 10 Index 2000 = 100 years. This is also reflected in the sub-region's Gross Value 225 Added, which is similar to that of East the West and South sub-regions where employment growth has 200 also been limited. Maintaining Central connectivity by both public transport and highway will be vital to support future employment 175 growth in the sub-region. North Much of the employment growth West 150 in the sub-region has taken place South in the least accessible areas by public transport. Those areas where there has been growth of at least 125 50 employees since 2003, with an average PTAL of two or less are shown in the map. These areas are spread throughout the sub- 100 region, which has implications for future travel patterns and the ability of those without a car to access 75 growing employment opportunities. 20042003200220012000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201220112013

Employment growth Growth in GVA Employment growth Employment growth 2003 – 2013 by sub-region 2003 – 2013 in areas with low PTAL Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Employment growth has Employment growth 2003 – 2013 CAZ slowed in recent years, International centre with most growth occuring Metropolitan town centre N 5 Kms in the least accessible Major town centre 0 1 2 3 Miles areas by public transport Safeguarded industrial land Absolute Employment Growth Employment growth in the sub- 2003 - 2013 by MSOA region has been relatively low, over 15,000 to 67,000 with only Waltham Forest above up to 15,000 the London average. Haringey and up to 5,000 Enfield have both seen almost up to 1,000 zero growth during the past 10 under 0 years. This is also reflected in under -1,000 the sub-region's Gross Value under -5,000 Added, which is similar to that of -14,400 to -10,000 the West and South sub-regions where employment growth has also been limited. Maintaining connectivity by both public transport and highway will be vital to support future employment growth in the sub-region. Much of the employment growth in the sub-region has taken place in the least accessible areas by public transport. Those areas where there has been growth of at least 50 employees since 2003, with an average PTAL of two or less are shown in the map. These areas are spread throughout the sub- region, which has implications for future travel patterns and the ability of those without a car to access growing employment opportunities.

Employment growth has Absolute employment slowed in recent years, Employment growth 2003 – 2013 in areas with low PTAL growth 2003 - 2013 with most growth occuring by LSOA 2011 in the least accessible N 5 Kms over 2000 0 1 2 3 Miles areas by public transport up to 2000 up to 1000 Employment growth in the sub- up to 500 region has been relatively low, up to 200 with only Waltham Forest above 50 to 100 the London average. Haringey and Enfield have both seen almost zero growth during the past 10 years. This is also reflected in the sub-region's Gross Value Added, which is similar to that of the West and South sub-regions where employment growth has also been limited. Maintaining connectivity by both public transport and highway will be vital to support future employment growth in the sub-region. Much of the employment growth in the sub-region has taken place in the least accessible areas by public transport. Those areas where there has been growth of at least 50 employees since 2003, with an average PTAL of two or less are shown in the map. These areas Over 80% of are spread throughout the sub- region, which has implications for employment growth future travel patterns and the ability since 2003 has been of those without a car to access in PTALs 1 and 2 growing employment opportunities.

The North has a strong Total Retail Floorspace (sqm) polycentric network of Total retail floorspace and vacancy by town centre 2013 over 100,000 town centres which depend N 5 Kms up to 100,000 on good transport links up to 50,000 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 30,000 The sub-region's only Metropolitan up to 25,000 town centre, Wood Green appears up to 15,000 to be performing reasonably well. However, other Major and District Percentage (%) of retail centres, such as Walthamstow, vacancies have higher levels of vacancy. This over 20 is likely to be partly due to an up to 20 increase in shoppers preferences up to 12.5 up to 10 for larger centres that can offer up to 7.5 a bigger range and quality of the up to 5 retail offer. Brent Cross Shopping Centre is not shown on these figures as it is not classified as a 'town centre' by the GLA, although there are plans to change this. The amount of retail floorspace has increased by 5%, mainly as a result of construction of out of centre retail parks along the North Circular and other locations. There are plans to add over 50,000sq.m of retail floorspace at Brent Cross Shopping Centre. Maintaining the viability of town centres will require multiple actions which include supporting continued access to the catchment areas of town centres, particularly by public transport; maintaining the quality of the place and shopping experience through traffic management and quality of the public realm; maintaining an appropriate level of car parking provision and supporting the efficient delivery of goods.

Total retail floorspace Retail floorspace and vacancy growth 2000 – 2015 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

The North has a strong Retail floorspace growth 2000 – 2015 Change in Retail Development polycentric network of 2000 to 2015 (m2) town centres which depend on good transport links N 5 Kms 10,000 to 82,000 0 1 2 3 Miles 5,000 to 10,000 The sub-region's only Metropolitan 2,500 to 5,000 town centre, Wood Green appears to be performing reasonably well. 1,000 to 2,500 However, other Major and District -1,000 to -2,500 centres, such as Walthamstow, -2,500 to -5,000 have higher levels of vacancy. This -5,000 to -10,000 is likely to be partly due to an -10,000 to -21,000 increase in shoppers preferences for larger centres that can offer a bigger range and quality of the retail offer. Brent Cross Shopping Centre is not shown on these figures as it is not classified as a 'town centre' by the GLA, although there are plans to change this. The amount of retail floorspace has increased by 5%, mainly as a result of construction of out of centre retail parks along the North Circular and other locations. There are plans to add over 50,000sq.m of retail floorspace at Brent Cross Shopping Centre. Maintaining the viability of town centres will require multiple actions Retail floorspace has which include supporting continued grown by 5% in the access to the catchment areas of town centres, particularly by public sub-region since 2001 transport; maintaining the quality of the place and shopping experience through traffic management and quality of the public realm; maintaining an appropriate level of car parking provision and supporting the efficient delivery of goods.

Total retail floorspace Retail floorspace and vacancy growth 2000 – 2015 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Freight growth has been Boroughs by total change growing faster than any Total freight vehicle kms 2014 up to 299 other sub-region, with vans N 5 Kms up to 158 increasingly important up to 109 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 68 The sub-region has a significant up to 46 concentration of businesses where LSOA with High Road the movement of freight is a key based employment part of their day to day operations, with total freight vehicle kms the second highest of any sub-region in London. However, these businesses both contribute to and suffer from road congestion. A key area where freight access is considered fundamentally important to both businesses in the sub-region and London as a whole is the Upper Lea Valley. The Upper Lea Valley is served by the A10, the North Circular and provides the outlay for freight transportation to the rest of London and beyond. The growth in the number of vans on the sub-region's roads has far outnumbered the growth in HGVs, driven in part by the growth of e-commerce.

Freight vehicles travelled 693m kms in 2014, the highest per population of any sub-region

Total freight Change in van Change in HGV vehicle kms 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Freight growth has been Boroughs by LGV change growing faster than any Change in van kms 2000 – 2014 up to 42.4 other sub-region, with vans N 5 Kms up to 4 increasingly important up to 2 0 1 2 3 Miles under 0 The sub-region has a significant under -2 concentration of businesses where -4 to -6.6 the movement of freight is a key LSOA with High Road part of their day to day operations, based employment with total freight vehicle kms the second highest of any sub-region in London. However, these businesses both contribute to and suffer from road congestion. A key area where freight access is considered fundamentally important to both businesses in the sub-region and London as a whole is the Upper Lea Valley. The Upper Lea Valley is served by the A10, the North Circular and provides the outlay for freight transportation to the rest of London and beyond. The growth in the number of vans on the sub-region's roads has far outnumbered the growth in HGVs, driven in part by the growth of e-commerce.

The number of vans on the sub-region's roads has increased by 20% since 2000, the most of any sub-region

Total freight Change in van Change in HGV vehicle kms 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Employment

Freight growth has been Boroughs by HGV change growing faster than any Change in HGV kms 2000 – 2014 up to 14.5 other sub-region, with vans N 5 Kms up to 4 increasingly important up to 2 0 1 2 3 Miles under 0 The sub-region has a significant under -2 concentration of businesses where -4 to -11.9 the movement of freight is a key LSOA with High Road part of their day to day operations, based employment with total freight vehicle kms the second highest of any sub-region in London. However, these businesses both contribute to and suffer from road congestion. A key area where freight access is considered fundamentally important to both businesses in the sub-region and London as a whole is the Upper Lea Valley. The Upper Lea Valley is served by the A10, the North Circular and provides the outlay for freight transportation to the rest of London and beyond. The growth in the number of vans on the sub-region's roads has far outnumbered the growth in HGVs, driven in part by the growth of e-commerce.

The number of HGVs on the sub-region's roads has decreased by 8% since 2000, the most of any sub-region

Total freight Change in van Change in HGV vehicle kms 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 kms 2000 – 2014 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

Population Employment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Mode and movement Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most trips in the North start and finish within Origin and destination of trips to/from the North sub-region 2013 the sub-region

Although residents of North 3% outside London make trips to many areas 77% within and outside London, the Within the majority of trips have both their North sub origin and destination within the region sub-region. Commuting trips are themost likely to be made outside North London, particularly to central London, whilst education, shopping and leisure trips are all much more likely to be internal to the sub-region. This reinforces the 6% East need to ensure a well functioning transport network that can support the huge range of local movements, 4% West particularly by bus, walking and 9% Central cycling, as well as the need for a network that can support both orbital and radial movements. A relatively high proportion of trips to the East sub-region are made from the North, largely from residents of Waltham Forest and Harigney travelling to Canary Wharf.

0% South Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

More people are commuting Change in Borough level commuting movements 2001 – 2011 In and outbound into central and Inner change in flows Boroughs for work 2001 - 2011 N 5 Kms over 4,000 As employment has increased 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 4,000 rapidly within central and Inner up to 2,000 London, and with lower levels up to 1,000 of growth in Outer London, 100 to 500 there has been an increase in -500 to -100 people commuting towards -1,000 to -500 more central areas, particularly -2,000 to - 1,000 from Haringey. Maintaining the capacity and frequency of public inbound flow outbound flow transport connections between the sub-region and central London will be important, both to support employment growth in the most productive part of the UK and also to enable North London's residents to access the huge range of employment opportunities that exist there. There has also been an increase in commuting flows between some of the sub-region's Boroughs, particularly between from and to Enfield. Again, maintaining connectivity between the sub- region's Boroughs is vital to ensure continued access to local jobs, therefore supporting economic growth in North London.

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Percentage (%) who the sub-region, particularly % that work in Central London 2011 work in Central London within its town centres, MSOA although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 62 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 38 up to 28 There is significant variation in up to 20 where residents commute to work. up to 16 Whilst 22% of the sub-region up to 12 works in central London, including a majority of residents in Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, in most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the 22% of the sub-region's dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting residents work in the commuting trips within the sub- Central Activities Zone region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London.

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Travel time to Central the sub-region, particularly Travel time to Central London 2011 London (minutes) within its town centres, MSOA although Central London is N 5 Kms 0 to 15 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important 15 to 30 30 to 45 There is significant variation in 45 to 60.5 where residents commute to work. 60.5 to 75 Whilst 22% of the sub-region 75 + works in central London, including a majority of residents in Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, in most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London.

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Percentage (%) who the sub-region, particularly % that work outside London 2011 work outside London within its town centres, MSOA although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 25 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 12 up to 8.0 There is significant variation in up to 5.5 where residents commute to work. up to 4.0 Whilst 22% of the sub-region up to 3.5 works in central London, including a majority of residents in Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, in most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, 6.4% of the sub- it is the car which is still the region's residents dominant mode. Rail plays a work outside London relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London.

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Percentage (%) who the sub-region, particularly % in work in Canary Wharf 2011 work in Canary Wharf within its town centres, MSOA although Central London is N 5 Kms over 4 to 31 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 4 up to 2.5 There is significant variation in up to 1.8 where residents commute to work. up to 1.2 Whilst 22% of the sub-region up to 0.8 works in central London, including a majority of residents in Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, in most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, 1% of the sub- it is the car which is still the region's residents dominant mode. Rail plays a work at Canary Wharf relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London.

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Largest commuting flows within the sub-region and neighbouring Boroughs 2011 Total number of journeys the sub-region, particularly over 175 within its town centres, up to 175 although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 150 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 125 50 to 77 There is significant variation in All TTW maps show where residents commute to work. outbound sub-region to Whilst 22% of the sub-region sub-region and neighbouring LA MSOA’s flows and works in central London, including inbound neighbouring LA a majority of residents in Haringey MSOA’s to sub-region flows and southern Waltham Forest, in excluding to and from CAZ most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London. All modes Rail Bus Private vehicle Walking & Cycling

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Largest rail commuting flows within the sub-region and neighbouring Boroughs 2011 Number of journeys the sub-region, particularly over 65 within its town centres, up to 65 although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 55 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 45 25 to 35 There is significant variation in All TTW maps show where residents commute to work. outbound sub-region to Whilst 22% of the sub-region sub-region and neighbouring LA MSOA’s flows and works in central London, including inbound neighbouring LA a majority of residents in Haringey MSOA’s to sub-region flows and southern Waltham Forest, in excluding to and from CAZ most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London. All modes Rail Bus Private vehicle Walking & Cycling

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Largest bus commuting flows within the sub-region and neighbouring Boroughs 2011 Number of journeys the sub-region, particularly over 65 within its town centres, up to 65 although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 55 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 45 25 to 35 There is significant variation in All TTW maps show where residents commute to work. outbound sub-region to Whilst 22% of the sub-region sub-region and neighbouring LA MSOA’s flows and works in central London, including inbound neighbouring LA a majority of residents in Haringey MSOA’s to sub-region flows and southern Waltham Forest, in excluding to and from CAZ most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London. All modes Rail Bus Private vehicle Walking & Cycling

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Largest car commuting flows within the sub-region and neighbouring Boroughs 2011 Number of journeys the sub-region, particularly over 65 within its town centres, up to 65 although Central London is N 5 Kms up to 55 0 1 2 3 Miles becoming more important up to 45 25 to 35 There is significant variation in All TTW maps show where residents commute to work. outbound sub-region to Whilst 22% of the sub-region sub-region and neighbouring LA MSOA’s flows and works in central London, including inbound neighbouring LA a majority of residents in Haringey MSOA’s to sub-region flows and southern Waltham Forest, in excluding to and from CAZ most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London. All modes Rail Bus Private vehicle Walking & Cycling

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Largest walking and cycling commuting flows within Number of journeys the sub-region, particularly over 65 within its town centres, the sub-region and neighbouring Boroughs 2011 up to 65 although Central London is up to 55 becoming more important N 5 Kms up to 45 0 1 2 3 Miles 25 to 35 There is significant variation in All TTW maps show where residents commute to work. outbound sub-region to Whilst 22% of the sub-region sub-region and neighbouring LA MSOA’s flows and works in central London, including inbound neighbouring LA a majority of residents in Haringey MSOA’s to sub-region flows and southern Waltham Forest, in excluding to and from CAZ most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, it is the car which is still the dominant mode. Rail plays a relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London. All modes Rail Bus Private vehicle Walking & Cycling

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Most residents work within Most common place of work the sub-region, particularly Most common place of work 2011 LSOA 2011 by category 2 within its town centres, within sub-region although Central London is N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles within CAZ becoming more important within borough There is significant variation in where residents commute to work. CAZ boundary Whilst 22% of the sub-region works in central London, including a majority of residents in Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, in most other parts of the sub-region the majority of people work locally. 50% of North London's labour force works within the sub-region, within its town centres, business and industrial parks, or other locations. The sub-region as a whole is home to a high number of people who work within its town centres, with almost 30% of all employment located here. 6% of North London residents work outside London, particularly in Hertfordshire, whilst many residents from these locations also work in the sub-region. Whilst the bus plays a significant role in local commuting trips, x% of the sub-region's it is the car which is still the residents work within dominant mode. Rail plays a the sub-region relatively minor role in supporting commuting trips within the sub- region, but it is hugely important inenabling the West's residents to access central London.

% that work in Travel time to % that work outside Central London 2011 Central London 2011 London 2011

% that work in Largest commuting Most common place Canary Wharf 2011 flows within the SR of work 2011 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

More trips are being made by rail and bus across London as more people travel into central locations and the quality of service improves As employment has increasingly Growth in total journey stages by mode 2001 – 2013: Greater London moved towards more central locations, which are typically most Index 2000 = 100 easily accessed by rail, there has been a strong growth in journeys 180 made using National Rail and the Underground across London. 170 Investment in service quality has Bus also played a major part in this, with Rail 160 customer satisfaction levels across the Tube and London Overground now at historically high levels. 150 The number of journeys made 140 by bus has also grown rapidly, particularly up to 2010 as significant Underground investment in the network was 130 made during the previous decade to increase frequency, reliability 120 and service quality, although the Population number of trips by bus has now 110 remained stable in recent years Conversely, the number of trips 100 made using the private car has fallen during the same period, as people 90 have switched to public transport Car driver and active travel modes. The largest 80 shift has been within Central and 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner London, although Outer London has also seen a decline in car use too. Further analysis of the reasons behind this is available in TfL's Drivers of Demand study: https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/ documents/drivers-of-demand- for-travel-in-london.pdf. Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 2% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.6%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 32% 6% whilst Barnet's mode share by (+0.2%) (+0.2%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 2% 15% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.7%) (+0.5%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 42% 1% connectivity of the network, (-2.0%) (-0.2%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 5% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.7%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 32% 8% whilst Barnet's mode share by (-0.1%) (+0.7%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 3% 15% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.9%) (+0.2%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 37% 1% connectivity of the network, (-2.4%) (+0.0%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 8% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.5%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 38% 16% whilst Barnet's mode share by (+1.6%) (+1.6%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 4% 16% by rail and Underground. The share (+1.2%) (-0.6%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 16% 2% connectivity of the network, (-4.6%) (+0.3%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 6% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.4%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 30% 2% whilst Barnet's mode share by (-1.3%) (+0.1%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 3% 12% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.5%) (+1.1%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 45% 1% connectivity of the network, (-1.1%) (+0.2%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 5% largest of any sub-region apart from (+1.0%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 31% 6% whilst Barnet's mode share by (-1.1%) (+0.7%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 2% 15% by rail and Underground. The share (+1.0%) (+0.2%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 40% 1% connectivity of the network, (-1.6%) (-0.2%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement 45% (-2.7%)

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 2% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.4%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 29% 8% whilst Barnet's mode share by (-1.0%) (+0.5%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 2% 14% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.2%) (+0.9%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 43% 1% connectivity of the network, (-0.9%) (0.0%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement 45% (-2.7%)

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 1% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.5%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 26% 5% whilst Barnet's mode share by (-4.2%) (+0.6%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 1% 12% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.2%) (+1.1%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 54% 1% connectivity of the network, (+1.7%) (+0.1%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement 45% (-2.7%)

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 3% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.7%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 30% 3% whilst Barnet's mode share by (+0.8%) (-0.4%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 1% 14% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.4%) (-1.3%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 49% 1% connectivity of the network, (-0.4%) (+0.1%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement 45% (-2.7%)

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 2% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.3%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 37% 8% whilst Barnet's mode share by (+3.8%) (-0.4%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 3% 21% by rail and Underground. The share (+1.4%) (+0.8%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 28% 1% connectivity of the network, (-5.2%) (-0.6%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement 45% (-2.7%)

There has been some mode shift from the car to public transport, particularly bus, in the sub-region, although it has been relatively limited The changes in mode share across Mode share 2013 North London follow a similar pattern to that of London as a whole, although there are some notable differences. The sub-region 2013 Mode share Change since 2006 has a high share of trips made by car, with 42% of all journeys made using this mode. However, the reduction in car mode share is the 3% largest of any sub-region apart from (+0.8%) Central, driven by Haringey and Waltham Forest, which saw declines of 5.2% and 4% respectively, 34% 8% whilst Barnet's mode share by (+0.5%) (+1.1%) car actually increased by 1.7%. The sub-region has seen a small increase in the share of trips made 2% 14% by rail and Underground. The share (+0.9%) (+1.3%) of National Rail trips, at 2%, is the lowest of any sub-region, which reflects the somewhat limited 39% 1% connectivity of the network, (-4.0%) (-0.6%) which is instead better served by the Underground instead. Waltham Forest has seen the largest increase in mode share by Underground and rail, probably as a result of more people commuting in central London from here. Bus mode share has also continued to increase, particularly in Barnet and Waltham Forest.

London Central South East & SE North West

Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

The sub-region has seen strong growth in cycling, but not so with walking The North has seen strong growth in the number of cycling trips, rising by 83% since 2007, largely driven by Enfield and Barnet. Change in walking trips 2007/08 – 2012/13 However, walking trips grew much more slowly, at just 1% compared to 6% for London as a whole, 25% with a decline in walking trips in Barnet of 22%, balanced out by 20% strong growth in Haringey of 22%. 15% Enabling the sub-region's residents to make their journeys 10% by cycling and walking will be key to reducing highway congestion 5% as the population continues to grow. Key to this will be the 0% provision of an extensive network of cycle routes to allow simpler -5% and safer access to and around London and local town centres. -10%

-15%

-20%

-25% Haringey Enfield Waltham ForestBarnet East Central London South North West

Walking Cycling Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

The sub-region has seen strong growth in cycling, but not so with walking The North has seen strong growth in the number of cycling trips, rising by 83% since 2007, largely driven by Enfield and Barnet. Change in cycling trips 2007/08 – 2012/13 However, walking trips grew much more slowly, at just 1% compared to 6% for London as a whole, 160% with a decline in walking trips in Barnet of 22%, balanced out by 140% strong growth in Haringey of 22%. Enabling the sub-region's 120% residents to make their journeys by cycling and walking will be key to reducing highway congestion 100% as the population continues to grow. Key to this will be the 80% provision of an extensive network of cycle routes to allow simpler and safer access to and around 60% London and local town centres. 40%

20%

0% Enfield Barnet Haringey Waltham ForestEast North South London Central West

Walking Cycling Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Car is still the dominant Most common mode of travel to workplace 2011 Most common mode share mode used to travel to 2011 work in the sub-region, Train and Tube although bus and train N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles Private Motorised are playing a larger role Bus The car is still the dominant mode used to travel to work across Walk much of the sub-region. Most people travel to workplaces in North London by car, although some significant areas of Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, are reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 41% of people that The number of commuting trips by work in the sub- car has decreased across parts of region travel by car North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Most common mode Travel to work Growth in Largest commuting of travel to work from residence commuting mode growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Car is still the dominant Most common mode of travel to work from residence 2011 Most common mode share mode used to travel to 2011 work in the sub-region, Train and Tube although bus and train N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles Private Motorised are playing a larger role Bus The car is still the dominant mode used to travel to work across Walk much of the sub-region. Most people travel to workplaces in North London by car, although some significant areas of Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, are reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 32% of people that The number of commuting trips by live in the sub-region car has decreased across parts of travel to work by car North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Car is still the dominant Growth in train and tube mode used to travel to Growth in commuting by train and tube 2001 – 2011 journeys to work work in the sub-region, By MSOA (2001-2011) although bus and train N 5 Kms over 500 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role up to 500 up to 400 The car is still the dominant mode up to 300 used to travel to work across up to 200 much of the sub-region. Most up to 100 people travel to workplaces in up to 0 (decrease) North London by car, although below -100 (decrease) some significant areas of Haringey no data (missing either and southern Waltham Forest, are 2001 or 2011 data) reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 34% growth in The number of commuting trips by commuting to work car has decreased across parts of by train 2001 - 2011 North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Train & Tube Bus Private vehicle Cycle Walk

Car is still the dominant Growth in bus mode used to travel to Growth in commuting by bus 2001 – 2011 journeys to work work in the sub-region, By MSOA (2001-2011) although bus and train N 5 Kms over 500 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role up to 500 up to 400 The car is still the dominant mode up to 300 used to travel to work across up to 200 much of the sub-region. Most up to 100 people travel to workplaces in up to 0 (decrease) North London by car, although below -100 (decrease) some significant areas of Haringey no data (missing either and southern Waltham Forest, are 2001 or 2011 data) reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 54% growth in The number of commuting trips by commuting to work car has decreased across parts of by bus 2001 - 2011 North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Train & Tube Bus Private vehicle Cycle Walk

Car is still the dominant Growth in private motorised mode used to travel to Growth in commuting by car and motorbike 2001 – 2011 journeys to work work in the sub-region, By MSOA (2001-2011) although bus and train N 5 Kms over 500 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role up to 500 up to 400 The car is still the dominant mode up to 300 used to travel to work across up to 200 much of the sub-region. Most up to 100 people travel to workplaces in up to 0 (decrease) North London by car, although below -100 (decrease) some significant areas of Haringey no data (missing either and southern Waltham Forest, are 2001 or 2011 data) reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 2% decline in The number of commuting trips by commuting to work car has decreased across parts of by car 2001 - 2011 North London, particularly in more - the largest of any central locations such as Haringey sub-region and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Train & Tube Bus Private vehicle Cycle Walk

Car is still the dominant Growth in cycle mode used to travel to Growth in commuting by cycle 2001 – 2011 journeys to work work in the sub-region, By MSOA (2001-2011) although bus and train N 5 Kms over 500 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role up to 500 up to 400 The car is still the dominant mode up to 300 used to travel to work across up to 200 much of the sub-region. Most up to 100 people travel to workplaces in up to 0 (decrease) North London by car, although below -100 (decrease) some significant areas of Haringey no data (missing either and southern Waltham Forest, are 2001 or 2011 data) reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 96% growth in The number of commuting trips by commuting to work car has decreased across parts of by cycle 2001 - 2011 North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Train & Tube Bus Private vehicle Cycle Walk

Car is still the dominant Growth in walking mode used to travel to Growth in commuting by walking 2001 – 2011 journeys to work work in the sub-region, By MSOA (2001-2011) although bus and train N 5 Kms over 500 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role up to 500 up to 400 The car is still the dominant mode up to 300 used to travel to work across up to 200 much of the sub-region. Most up to 100 people travel to workplaces in up to 0 (decrease) North London by car, although below -100 (decrease) some significant areas of Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, are no data (missing either 2001 or 2011 data) reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. 12% growth in The number of commuting trips by commuting to work car has decreased across parts of by foot 2001 - 2011 North London, particularly in more - the lowest of any central locations such as Haringey sub-region and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Train & Tube Bus Private vehicle Cycle Walk

Car is still the dominant Largest growth by mode mode used to travel to Largest commuting mode growth 2001 – 2011 Bus work in the sub-region, although bus and train N 5 Kms Private Motorised 0 1 2 3 Miles are playing a larger role Train and Tube The car is still the dominant mode Cycle used to travel to work across Walk much of the sub-region. Most people travel to workplaces in No data North London by car, although some significant areas of Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, are reached by bus or train (including Underground). As residents of the sub-region often travel into central London for work, residence based mode shares are greater for rail, particularly within more central locations, but also close to Underground stations, where large numbers of people work in central London. There has been strong growth in the number of journeys to work by train and Tube, particularly along key radial rail corridors such as the Picadilly line. There has also been a strong growth in bus journeys, particularly in the Upper Lea Valley, and between Hendon to Edgware. The number of commuting trips by car has decreased across parts of North London, particularly in more central locations such as Haringey and southern Waltham Forest, although there has been growth in other parts, notable around Mill Hill, Chingford and parts of Enfield.

Car availability is declining % of households with no access to a car 2011 Percentage (%) of households as people switch modes. with no car or van (MSOA) Potential exists for further up to 83 N 5 Kms mode shift, particularly up to 60 0 1 2 3 Miles in more denser areas up to 50 up to 40 Levels of car ownership vary quite up to 30 significantly across the sub-region. up to 20 Haringey and southern Waltham Forest have the lowest levels of car ownership, with more than half of residents not owning a car, primarily due to their more central location, greater availability of public transport services and limited space allocated to parking. Southern parts of the Upper Lea Valley, particularly Edmonton, also have relatively low levels of car ownership, mostly in areas with good access to public transport. Car ownership levels are highest in Barnet. As residents have switched to public transport, car ownership levels have declined across all Boroughs, but particularly in Haringey and Waltham Forest, which have seen the greatest mode shift to bus and rail. 31% of people do There is still significant potential not have access for further mode shift away from to a car, up from the car, particularly in Haringey and Waltham Forest. Further details 26% in 2001 on the methodology used to estimate the potential for mode shift are available from TfL.

% of households with Potential for mode no access to a car shift away from car Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Mode and Movement

Car availability is declining Potential for mode shift away from car Volume of daily car trips by as people switch modes. 500m hexcell Potential exists for further over 5,000 N 5 Kms mode shift, particularly up to 5,000 0 1 2 3 Miles in more denser areas up to 2,500 up to 1,500 Levels of car ownership vary quite under 750 significantly across the sub-region. no trips in LTDS 2005/10 Haringey and southern Waltham Forest have the lowest levels of car ownership, with more than half of residents not owning a car, primarily due to their more central location, greater availability of public transport services and limited space allocated to parking. Southern parts of the Upper Lea Valley, particularly Edmonton, also have relatively low levels of car ownership, mostly in areas with good access to public transport. Car ownership levels are highest in Barnet. As residents have switched to public transport, car ownership levels have declined across all Boroughs, but particularly in Haringey and Waltham Forest, which have seen the greatest mode shift to bus and rail. There is still significant potential for further mode shift away from the car, particularly in Haringey and Waltham Forest. Further details on the methodology used to estimate the potential for mode shift are available from TfL.

% of households with Potential for mode no access to a car shift away from car Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

Population Employment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Network capacity and connectivity Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

AlthoughRailplan there is sufficient Scenario WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Underground and DLR crowding 2011 Chesham capacity on the rail network Amersham at present, low frequencyWatford Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois services on National Rail Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley lines may hold back growth Southgate Loughton Chorleywood North London is generally Totteridge & Whetstone Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove well served by the London Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill NorthwoodUnderground network. Crowding West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon Northwood levelsHills are generally low within Roding Valley Chigwell Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip much of the sub-region,Harrow &but Wealdstone Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Queensbury Grange Hill Manor increase as trains approach Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford North Harrow Kenton Colindale Eastcotecentral London on the Northern, Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens VictoriaRayners Lane and PiccadillyHarrow- lines.Northwick Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip ThereWest are Harrow a number of radial Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South Harrow Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central National Rail routes in the sub- Hampstead Willesden Newbury Park Manor Snaresbrook region, with crowding levelsNorth Wembley Green House Redbridge Upminster relatively low for suburban stopping Kilburn Northolt Sudbury Hill Wembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster services. However, the Gospel Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone Oak to Barking orbital line suffers Hornchurch Sudbury Town Harlesden Kentish Town Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park from significant crowding.Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East National Rail services generally Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green do not provide as frequent a Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent service as the Underground. Stratford Becontree Frequency is a key component Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross of the overall perception of the Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger qualityLane of service and low levels Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding of frequency can make an area Farringdon Abbey Road Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road seemPark Royal less connected, therefore Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street restrictingActon the potential for future Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford housing and employment growth.Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h ImprovingBroadway the frequency and quality Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel of service of National Rail lines will Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate be key to maximising the growth High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Leicester House potentialEaling of the sub-region. Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner Square Common Piccadilly 2 Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent < 1 standing / m Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge Charing 2 Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's1 to 2 standing / m Cross South Barons Gloucester Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith Sloane West Ealing Court Court Road 2 Silvertown 2 to 3 standing / mSquare Victoria Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor 2 Quay Northfields 3 to 4 standing / m River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's Embankment Osterley 2 Park Green Brook Park Kensington 4 to 5 standingKensington / m Park Beckton North Hounslow 2 Bermondsey > 5 standing / m Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and Lambeth National Rail Station West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2011 Borough crowding 2011 frequency 2015 Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Mitcham Elmers End Beddington Waddon Arena Lane Marsh Wandle Park Woodside Mitcham Therapia Ampere Reeves Junction Blackhorse Lane Lane Way Corner West Croydon Addiscombe Centrale Wellesley Road Lebanon George Street Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 < 1 standing / m Addington Village 1 to 2 standing / m2 Fieldway King Henry’s Drive 2 to 3 standing / m2 New Addington 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 > 5 standing / m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Although there is sufficient capacity on the rail network National Rail crowding 2011 Railplanat present, low frequency Scenario WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) services on National RailTowards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill lines may hold back growth Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont New Barnet North London is generallyBushey Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park well served by the London Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood Carpenders Park Enfield Lock High Underground network. Crowding Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford Park levels are generallyHatch low End within Southbury Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford much of the sub-region, but Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End Headstone Lane New Southgate Edmonton Green increase as trains approach Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park Angel Road central LondonHarrow & Wealdstone on the Northern, Silver Street Brentwood Victoria and Piccadilly lines. Alexandra Palace Wood Street Kenton White Hart Lane Northumberland There are a number of radial Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards NationalHarrow Rail- routes in the sub- Bruce Grove Southend and on-the-Hill Hendon Shoeburyness region, with crowding levels Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill relatively low forSouth suburban Kenton stopping Cricklewood Green Lanes Central Sudbury Hill services. However, the GospelWembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Walthamstow Oak to Barking orbital line suffers Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road Sudbury & Wembley Central Street fromHarrow significant Road crowding. Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton Stonebridge Park & Frognal West Midland Heath Road National Rail servicesHarlesden generally Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory do not provideWillesden as Junction frequent a Park Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes service as the Underground. Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings Frequency is a key component Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred of the overall perception Queen'sof the Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields quality of service and low levels Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate of frequency can make an area Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend seem less connected, therefore Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park restricting the potential for future Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock housing and employment growth. Old Street Paddington Liverpool Improving the frequency and quality Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking of service of National Rail lines will Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West Broadway Mainbe key to maximisingWhite City the growthBush Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line potential of the sub-region. Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Court Road Thameslink Acton < 1 standing / m Central 1 to 2 standing / m2 Custom House Kensington Shadwell for ExCel 2 South (Olympia) 2 to 3 standing / m Blackfriars Cannon Acton 2 3 to 4 standing / m Charing Street Limehouse Cross 4 to 5 standing / m2 Fenchurch Street Wapping > 5 standing /Victoria m2 River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail StationCanary Wharf Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLRWaterloo crowding 2011 crowding 2011 frequency 2015 Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches 2 < 1 standing / m Belmont Purley Towards Guildford Sanderstead 1 to 2 standing / m2 Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham Chipstead Riddlesdown 2 to 3 standing / m2 Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South Kingswood Kenley 3 to 4 standing / m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Whyteleafe South 4 to 5 standing / m2 Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Towards 2 > 5 standing / m Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Although there is sufficient capacity on the rail network Station frequency 2015 at present, low frequency services on National Rail lines may hold back growth North London is generally well served by the London Underground network. Crowding levels are generally low within much of the sub-region, but increase as trains approach central London on the Northern, Victoria and Piccadilly lines. There are a number of radial National Rail routes in the sub- region, with crowding levels relatively low for suburban stopping services. However, the Gospel Oak to Barking orbital line suffers from significant crowding. National Rail services generally do not provide as frequent a service as the Underground. Frequency is a key component of the overall perception of the quality of service and low levels of frequency can make an area seem less connected, therefore restricting the potential for future housing and employment growth. River Thames Frequency of rail service Improving the frequency and quality in south London is notably of service of National Rail lines will lower than north London be key to maximising the growth Lines with a potential of the sub-region. consistent stopping pattern and London terminus every 10 minutes or better throughout the day Lines with an inconsistent or infrequent (less often than every 10 minutes) stopping pattern Underground and National Rail Station throughout the day DLR crowding 2011 crowding 2011 frequency 2015 Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Increasing congestion Average Bus Speed in has decreased journey Bus speeds (AM peak) 2013 the AM peak (km/h) time reliability at key over 20 locations, and has N 5 Kms up to 20 0 1 2 3 Miles increased bus wait times up to 16 up to 12 Highway delays and congestion up to 8 are a significant problem across the sub-region and affect access to a number of key radial and orbital routes. This may constrain employment growth in these locations, as congestion and poor journey time reliability adds costs to business operations and restricts accessibility to potential customers and suppliers. Continued employment and population growth have meant that congestion has increased in recent years. Over the past ten years excess wait time for high-frequency buses has continued to fall (and is now just over a minute on average). However, bus wait times have begun to increase during the past two years, largely as a result of congestion. Whilst bus speeds are lowest towards central London there are a number of orbital routes corridors in the North, particularly along the North Circular where they are also slow. As London continues to grow there is a need to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to maintain attractive and reliable bus services.

Bus speeds Bus performance Junction (AM peak) 2013 gap 2013 delay 2012

Highway delay Highway journey (AM peak) 2013 time reliability 2013 Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Increasing congestion Bus Performance Gap has decreased journey Bus performance gap 2013 (minutes/km) time reliability at key over 1 min 30 sec locations, and has N 5 Kms up to 1 min 30 sec 0 1 2 3 Miles increased bus wait times up to 1 min up to 45 sec Highway delays and congestion up to 30 sec are a significant problem across the sub-region and affect access to a number of key radial and orbital routes. This may constrain employment growth in these locations, as congestion and poor journey time reliability adds costs to business operations and restricts accessibility to potential customers and suppliers. Continued employment and population growth have meant that congestion has increased in recent years. Over the past ten years excess wait time for high-frequency buses has continued to fall (and is now just over a minute on average). However, bus wait times have begun to increase during the past two years, largely as a result of congestion. Whilst bus speeds are lowest towards central London there are a number of orbital routes corridors in the Average wait times for North, particularly along the North buses have gone up by Circular where they are also slow. 5% during the past two As London continues to grow there years in the sub-region is a need to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to maintain attractive and reliable bus services.

Bus speeds Bus performance Junction (AM peak) 2013 gap 2013 delay 2012

Increasing congestion Junction delay 2012 Junction Delay (PCU Hours) has decreased journey 2012 AM peak time reliability at key N 5 Kms locations, and has over 400 0 1 2 3 Miles increased bus wait times up to 400 Highway delays and congestion up to 300 are a significant problem across up to 200 the sub-region and affect access up to 100 to a number of key radial and 20 to 100 orbital routes. This may constrain employment growth in these locations, as congestion and poor journey time reliability adds costs to business operations and restricts accessibility to potential customers and suppliers. Continued employment and population growth have meant that congestion has increased in recent years. Over the past ten years excess wait time for high-frequency buses has continued to fall (and is now just over a minute on average). However, bus wait times have begun to increase during the past two years, largely as a result of congestion. Whilst bus speeds are lowest towards central London there are a number of orbital routes corridors in the North, particularly along the North Circular where they are also slow. As London continues to grow there is a need to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to maintain attractive and reliable bus services.

Bus speeds Bus performance Junction (AM peak) 2013 gap 2013 delay 2012

Increasing congestion Highway Delays in has decreased journey Highway delay (AM peak) 2013 the AM peak time reliability at key 2013-2014 (min/km) locations, and has N 5 Kms over 5 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 5 increased bus wait times up to 3 Highway delays and congestion up to 1 are a significant problem across the sub-region and affect access to a number of key radial and orbital routes. This may constrain employment growth in these locations, as congestion and poor journey time reliability adds costs to business operations and restricts accessibility to potential customers and suppliers. Continued employment and population growth have meant that congestion has increased in recent years. Over the past ten years excess wait time for high-frequency buses has continued to fall (and is now just over a minute on average). However, bus wait times have begun to increase during the past two years, largely as a result of congestion. Whilst bus speeds are lowest towards central London there are a number of orbital routes corridors in the Average delay (mins/ North, particularly along the North km) on sub-region's Circular where they are also slow. roads has increased by As London continues to grow there 18% since 2007/08, the is a need to ensure that appropriate most of any sub-region measures are taken to maintain attractive and reliable bus services.

Bus speeds Bus performance Junction (AM peak) 2013 gap 2013 delay 2012

Increasing congestion Highway journey time reliability 2013 Journey Time has decreased journey Reliability Difference time reliability at key Between segment and N 5 Kms benchmark locations, and has 0 1 2 3 Miles over 0.10 increased bus wait times up to 0.10 Highway delays and congestion up to 0.07 are a significant problem across up to 0.04 the sub-region and affect access up to 0.01 to a number of key radial and orbital routes. This may constrain employment growth in these locations, as congestion and poor journey time reliability adds costs to business operations and restricts accessibility to potential customers and suppliers. Continued employment and population growth have meant that congestion has increased in recent years. Over the past ten years excess wait time for high-frequency buses has continued to fall (and is now just over a minute on average). However, bus wait times have begun to increase during the past two years, largely as a result of congestion. Whilst bus speeds are lowest towards central London there are a number of orbital routes corridors in the North, particularly along the North Circular where they are also slow. As London continues to grow there is a need to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to maintain attractive and reliable bus services.

Bus speeds Bus performance Junction (AM peak) 2013 gap 2013 delay 2012

Some areas need Public transport accessibility levels (PTAL) PTAL score 2015 improvements in public 0 4 transport connectivity 1a 5 N 5 Kms to support high 1b 6a 0 1 2 3 Miles levels of activity 2 6b 3 Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTALs) are based on the combination of the walk distance to the nearest public transport service and the wait time for that service. The extensive bus network plays a fundamental role in providing public transport connectivity throughout the sub-region, including orbital journeys and journeys to town centres, with rail supporting largely radial journeys. Poor accessibility levels are located throughout the region but are particularly prominent in parts of Barnet and Enfield. There are some areas where total population and employment density is higher than would usually be expected for the PTAL level. These include parts of Walthamstow and Colindale. There may be opportunities to enhance public transport accessibility here, to enable faster journeys for those that already use bus and rail, and to encourage further mode shift away from the car and reduce congestion.

Public transport High employment and accessibility levels density but low PTAL Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Some areas need % of London average improvements in public Areas of high employment and population density but low PTAL density transport connectivity LSOA with PTAL < 2 to support high N 5 Kms over 400 0 1 2 3 Miles levels of activity up to 400 up to 300 Public Transport Accessibility up to 200 Levels (PTALs) are based on the 100 to 150 combination of the walk distance to the nearest public transport service and the wait time for that service. The extensive bus network plays a fundamental role in providing public transport connectivity throughout the sub-region, including orbital journeys and journeys to town centres, with rail supporting largely radial journeys. Poor accessibility levels are located throughout the region but are particularly prominent in parts of Barnet and Enfield. There are some areas where total population and employment density is higher than would usually be expected for the PTAL level. These include parts of Walthamstow and Colindale. There may be opportunities to enhance public transport accessibility here, to enable faster journeys for those that already use bus and rail, and to encourage further mode shift away from the car and reduce congestion.

Radial public transport movements are typically rail based and quicker Average speed by public transport 2011 than orbital movements Radial movements by public transport are typically faster than Orbital Radial orbital movements, with cars providing quicker journey times Brent Cross 6.7 mph Wood Green for this type of trip This is likely to be a key reason as to why cars are the dominant mode in the North. Brent Cross 7.0 mph Enfield Enhancing orbital connectivity, and connectivity between key Wood Green 7.3 mph Walthanstow centres in particular, will be key to ensuring the sub-region remains competititve and can support Wood Green 8.6 mph Edgeware future employment growth. Most public transport journeys, and those made by rail based Brent Cross 10.1 mph Walthamstow modes modes in particular, will see small reductions in total journey time between 2011 and 2031 as a Wood Green 7.4 mph Enfield result of committed investment. However, journey times by car are expected to increase as a Brent Cross 10.0 mph Edgware result of growing congestion. Ponders End 13.4 mph Stratford

Ponders End 16.3 mph Liverpool Street

0 4 8 12 16 20 mph

Average speed by Journey times public transport 2011 between key locations Story of SpatialGrowth Growth Sub-RegionalSub-Regional Transport Transport Plan Plan for Northfor North London London - 2016 - 2015 update update Network Capacity and Connectivity

Radial public transport movements are typically rail based and quicker Journey times between key locations – public transport than orbital movements Radial movements by public transport are typically faster than orbital movements, with cars 58.6 2012 providing quicker journey times Brent Cross Wood Green for this type of trip This is likely to 50.9 2031 be a key reason as to why cars are 84.9 the dominant mode in the North. Brent Cross Enfield 74.6 Enhancing orbital connectivity, and connectivity between key 39.2 Wood Green Walthanstow centres in particular, will be key to 36.3 ensuring the sub-region remains 61.0 competititve and can support Wood Green Edgeware future employment growth. 53.0 Most public transport journeys, 68.2 and those made by rail based Brent Cross Walthamstow 60.4 modes modes in particular, will see small reductions in total journey 39.6 time between 2011 and 2031 as a Wood Green Enfield 39.2 result of committed investment. However, journey times by car 27.0 Edgware are expected to increase as a Brent Cross 24.8 result of growing congestion. 54.3 Ponders End Stratford 47.6 40.8 Ponders End Liverpool Street 40.2

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 minutes

Public Transport Drive

Radial public transport movements are typically rail based and quicker Journey times between key locations – highway than orbital movements Radial movements by public transport are typically faster than orbital movements, with cars 26.5 2012 providing quicker journey times Brent Cross Wood Green for this type of trip This is likely to 22.2 2031 be a key reason as to why cars are 36.5 the dominant mode in the North. Brent Cross Enfield 31.8 Enhancing orbital connectivity, and connectivity between key 20.1 Wood Green Walthanstow centres in particular, will be key to 21.6 ensuring the sub-region remains 36.3 competititve and can support Wood Green Edgeware future employment growth. 36.6 Most public transport journeys, 42.3 and those made by rail based Brent Cross Walthamstow 38.4 modes modes in particular, will see small reductions in total journey 22.7 time between 2011 and 2031 as a Wood Green Enfield 21.0 result of committed investment. However, journey times by car 14.3 Edgware are expected to increase as a Brent Cross 15.6 result of growing congestion. 38.7 Ponders End Stratford 43.2 45.8 Ponders End Liverpool Street 58.8

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 minutes

Public Transport Drive

Average speed by Journey times public transport 2011 between key locations Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

Population Employment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Liveability Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Outer London has seen an increase in Change in rank of economic deprivation 2000 – 2009 relative deprivation The pattern of deprivation in London is changing, with Inner London becoming less deprived and Outer London becoming more deprived in relative terms. The reasons for this are complex, but include an influx of well qualified, high earning people into Inner London, as well as housing affordability pressures pushing less affluent groups into Outer London. Changing patterns of deprivation mean that the Upper Lea Valley, as well as nothern Waltham Forest and parts of Barnet, have become relatively more deprived. These changes are likely to impact on the demand for travel as people from less affluent socio-economic groups traditionally tend to travel more by bus than rail or Tube, with trips also typically more local.

Change in Economic deprivation 2000 - 2009 by LSOA up to 18,900 up to 3,000 up to 1,500 under 0 under -1,200 AverageChange inspeed rank byof PublicChange transport in rank of -15,600 to -2,500 publiceconomic transport deprivation 2011 accessibilityIndices of deprivation levels Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Outer London has Change in rank of Indices of seen an increase in Change in rank of Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010 – 2015 Multiple Deprivation relative deprivation 2010 - 2015 by LSOA N 5 Kms up to 18,000 The pattern of deprivation in 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 500 London is changing, with Inner up to 200 London becoming less deprived under 0 and Outer London becoming under -200 more deprived in relative terms. -500 to -1,500 The reasons for this are complex, but include an influx of well qualified, high earning people into Inner London, as well as housing affordability pressures pushing less affluent groups into Outer London. Changing patterns of deprivation mean that the Upper Lea Valley, as well as nothern Waltham Forest and parts of Barnet, have become relatively more deprived. These changes are likely to impact on the demand for travel as people from less affluent socio-economic groups traditionally tend to travel more by bus than rail or Tube, with trips also typically more local.

AverageChange inspeed rank byof PublicChange transport in rank of publiceconomic transport deprivation 2011 accessibilityIndices of deprivation levels Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

There are a number of Index of Multiple deprived areas in the sub- 20% and 40% most deprived areas Deprivation (England) region where access to by LSOA (2010) N 5 Kms jobs could be improved Most deprived 20% 0 1 2 3 Miles North London contains some of the most deprived areas in England, Next most deprived 20% to 40% with particular concentrations across the east of the sub-region, and only small pockets in Barnet. Ensuring that residents of deprived areas have sufficient access to a range of suitable employment opportunities is key to tackling deprivation. At present, a large proportion of the sub-region's most deprived areas have access to fewer jobs by public transport within 45 minutes. This is particularly the case in the Upper Lea Valley and northern Waltham Forest. Affordability of transport is also a key issue to ensure equality of access to employment opportunities. Most of the sub-region's residents with the lowest incomes live in the Upper Lea Valley. There are parts of northern Enfield where incomes are low and high proportions of people travel more than 10km to work, with costs for these journeys also likely to be higher.

20% and 40% most Access to jobs within Access to jobs vs Low income areas vs deprived areas 45 minutes by PT most deprived areas avg distance to work Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

There are a number of Jobs within 45 mins public deprived areas in the sub- Access to jobs within 45 minutes by public transport transport travel time from zone region where access to Data: LOHAM RC2012 HW N 5 Kms Modes AM Peak, Jobs: 2011 GLA jobs could be improved Forecasts 0 1 2 3 Miles North London contains some of over 3.0 mil the most deprived areas in England, up to 3.0 with particular concentrations up to 2.5 across the east of the sub-region, up to 2.0 and only small pockets in Barnet. up to 1.5 up to 1.0 Ensuring that residents of deprived up to 0.8 areas have sufficient access to up to 0.6 a range of suitable employment up to 0.4 opportunities is key to tackling up to 0.2 deprivation. At present, a large up to 0.1 mil proportion of the sub-region's most deprived areas have access to fewer jobs by public transport within 45 minutes. This is particularly the case in the Upper Lea Valley and northern Waltham Forest. Affordability of transport is also a key issue to ensure equality of access to employment opportunities. Most of the sub-region's residents with the lowest incomes live in the Upper Lea Valley. There are parts of northern Enfield where incomes are low and high proportions of people travel more than 10km to work, with costs for these journeys also likely to be higher.

There are a number of Jobs within 45 mins public deprived areas in the sub- Access to jobs vs most deprived areas transport travel time from zone region where access to Data: LOHAM RC2012 HW N 5 Kms Modes AM Peak, Jobs: 2011 jobs could be improved GLA Forecasts 0 1 2 3 Miles North London contains some of over 3.0 mil the most deprived areas in England, up to 3.0 with particular concentrations up to 2.5 across the east of the sub-region, up to 2.0 and only small pockets in Barnet. up to 1.5 up to 1.0 Ensuring that residents of deprived up to 0.8 areas have sufficient access to up to 0.6 a range of suitable employment up to 0.4 opportunities is key to tackling up to 0.2 deprivation. At present, a large up to 0.1 mil proportion of the sub-region's most 20% most deprived deprived areas have access to fewer jobs by public transport within 45 minutes. This is particularly the case in the Upper Lea Valley and northern Waltham Forest. Affordability of transport is also a key issue to ensure equality of access to employment opportunities. Most of the sub-region's residents with the lowest incomes live in the Upper Lea Valley. There are parts of northern Enfield where incomes are low and high proportions of people travel more than 10km to work, with costs for these journeys also likely to be higher.

There are a number of Areas with low income vs average distance travelled to work Percentage (%) of households deprived areas in the sub- below 60% median income region where access to by LSOA 2001 jobs could be improved N 5 Kms over 35 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 35 North London contains some of up to 30 the most deprived areas in England, up to 25 with particular concentrations up to 20 across the east of the sub-region, up to 15 and only small pockets in Barnet. % households travelling over Ensuring that residents of deprived 10km to work areas have sufficient access to by 2011 LSOA a range of suitable employment opportunities is key to tackling deprivation. At present, a large proportion of the sub-region's most deprived areas have access to fewer jobs by public transport within 45 minutes. This is particularly the case in the Upper Lea Valley and northern Waltham Forest. Affordability of transport is also a key issue to ensure equality of access to employment opportunities. Most of the sub-region's residents with the lowest incomes live in the Upper Lea Valley. There are parts of northern Enfield where incomes are low and high proportions of people travel more than 10km to work, with costs for these journeys also likely to be higher.

Air quality in the sub-region NO2 annual mean is an issue which affects Air quality 2011 concentrations (µg/m3) the health of its residents 97 43 28 N 5 Kms The North sub-region suffers from 76 40 25 0 1 2 3 Miles 73 37 22 poor air quality in some areas. Air 58 34 19 quality is generally poorest around 55 31 16 major road corridors such as the 13 North Circular, A10, A12 and M1. Air quality is also generally poorer Source: Interim update for the London Atmospheric Emissions within the south of the sub-region, Inventory 2010 closer to central London, than other parts where the highway network is less dense. Tackling poor air quality, including reducing harmful emissions from motorised vehicles, will have significant health benefits for residents of the sub-region. Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Safety on the network Fatal or serious collisions 2013 Collision Locations has been improving 2013 but more needs to be Fatal done on key routes N 5 Kms Serious 0 1 2 3 Miles Significant improvements in road safety have been achieved in London during the last 15 years. However, there is still scope for further improvement. In 2013, Barnet suffered more fatalities than any other borough in the sub-region. Each borough had at least one fatality. Incidences of serious injury were also evenly spread across the sub-region along major highway corridors. Where there is evidence of clusters of accidents occurring consideration should be given to implementing local road safety schemes. The majority of KSIs occurred on 30mph 'A' roads in the North sub-region, although there were also some on the local highway network. While reductions in speed limits are generally not appropriate for these roads, there could be scope for targeted enforcement and public information campaigns to improve awareness and behaviour across all road users. Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

The sub-region needs to Average number of balance efficient movement Movement and place vehicles observed with quality of place AM peak 2013-2014 N 5 Kms over 10,000 The sub-region's streets perform 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 10,000 a wide range of movement up to 5,000 functions from roads carrying up to 3,000 very high volumes and mixed up to 2,000 of vehicular traffic and people Town centre to streets which only have a local movement function. But the sub-region's streets also perform a wide variety of functions which are specific to the quality of place. These include living and functioning and are equally as important to movement. They have an impact economically as well as on quality of life of local residents. Many of the sub-region's main 'A' roads carry significant flows of traffic, in particular the A10 through the boroughs of Enfield and Haringey, and the North Circular through Barnet, Enfield and Waltham Forest. Some of these roads pass through town centre locations where quality of place is very important, including Tottenham and Finchley. Managing and mitigating the impact of heavy flows of traffic on these places will be important to maintain the attractiveness and viability of the retail and service offer here.

Movement and place Street types Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

The sub-region needs to Street types balance efficient movement TfL street types Core Road with quality of place N 5 Kms High Road The sub-region's streets perform 0 1 2 3 Miles City Hub a wide range of movement Connector functions from roads carrying High Street very high volumes and mixed City Street Local Street of vehicular traffic and people Town Square to streets which only have a City Place local movement function. But the sub-region's streets also perform a wide variety of functions which are specific to the quality of place. These include living and functioning and are equally as important to movement. They have an impact economically as well as on quality of life of local residents. Many of the sub-region's main 'A' roads carry significant flows of traffic, in particular the A10 through the boroughs of Enfield and Haringey, and the North Circular through Barnet, Enfield and Waltham Forest. Some of these roads pass through town centre locations where quality of place is very important, including Tottenham and Finchley. Managing and mitigating the impact of heavy flows of traffic on these places will be important to maintain the attractiveness and viability of the retail and service offer here.

Movement and place Street types Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

There is significant potential Percentage (%) of people to increase active travel Proportion of people not in good health 2011 with activities limited by to address health issues health problems by MSOA 2011 across the sub-region N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles over 17 London's transport system plays up to 17 an important role in people's up to 15.5 health by providing access to jobs, up to 14.5 education, services and leisure, all up to 13.5 of which are essential for a healthy, up to 12 fulfilling life. It also provides access to healthcare. But the biggest role of transport in health is to help people stay active and prevent a wide range of illnesses including heart disease, stroke, depressions, type 2 diabetes and some cancers. TfL is taking a whole-street approach to improving health in London, to make them good for health and attractive places to spend time. Further details of the whole street approach can be found in TfL's 'Improving the health of Londoners' transport action plan: http://content.tfl.gov.uk/ improving-the-health-of-londoners- transport-action-plan.pdf. Overall more residents in the east of the sub-region tend to describe themselves as not being in good 17% of the sub- health than in any of the other region's population boroughs in the sub-region, which correspond with concentrations are not in good health of deprivation here too. There is significant scope to improve levels of physical activity across the sub-region, and therefore improve health. Providing a safe environment to support the growth of trips on these modes will be important to supporting the health of the North London's residents. Population not Time spent Time spent in good health walking 2013 cycling 2013 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

There is significant potential Time spent walking 2013 Average daily time spent to increase active travel walking by Borough (minutes) to address health issues up to 35 across the sub-region up to 30 up to 25 London's transport system plays up to 22.5 an important role in people's up to 20 health by providing access to jobs, up to 15 education, services and leisure, all no data of which are essential for a healthy, fulfilling life. It also provides access to healthcare. But the biggest role of transport in health is to help people stay active and prevent a wide range of illnesses including heart disease, stroke, depressions, type 2 diabetes and some cancers. TfL is taking a whole-street approach to improving health in London, to make them good for health and attractive places to spend time. Further details of the whole street approach can be found in TfL's 'Improving the health of Londoners' transport action plan: http://content.tfl.gov.uk/ improving-the-health-of-londoners- transport-action-plan.pdf. Overall more residents in the east of the sub-region tend to describe themselves as not being in good health than in any of the other boroughs in the sub-region, which correspond with concentrations of deprivation here too. There is significant scope to improve levels of physical activity across the sub-region, and therefore improve health. Providing a safe environment to support the growth of trips on these modes will be important to supporting the health of the North London's residents. Population not Time spent Time spent in good health walking 2013 cycling 2013 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

There is significant potential Time spent cycling 2013 Average daily time spent to increase active travel cycling by Borough (minutes) to address health issues up to 4 across the sub-region up to 3.5 up to 3 London's transport system plays up to 2 an important role in people's up to 1 health by providing access to jobs, up to 0.5 education, services and leisure, all no data of which are essential for a healthy, fulfilling life. It also provides access to healthcare. But the biggest role of transport in health is to help people stay active and prevent a wide range of illnesses including heart disease, stroke, depressions, type 2 diabetes and some cancers. TfL is taking a whole-street approach to improving health in London, to make them good for health and attractive places to spend time. Further details of the whole street approach can be found in TfL's 'Improving the health of Londoners' transport action plan: http://content.tfl.gov.uk/ improving-the-health-of-londoners- transport-action-plan.pdf. Overall more residents in the east of the sub-region tend to describe themselves as not being in good health than in any of the other boroughs in the sub-region, which correspond with concentrations of deprivation here too. There is significant scope to improve levels of physical activity across the sub-region, and therefore improve health. Providing a safe environment to support the growth of trips on these modes will be important to supporting the health of the North London's residents. Population not Time spent Time spent in good health walking 2013 cycling 2013 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Travel times on the step Percentage (%) of free network have improved Proportion of population aged over 75 2011 people aged 75+ but more needs to be done > 12% N 5 Kms 8% to 12% As London's population ages, its 0 1 2 3 Miles 4% to 8% transport network will need to 0 to 4% adapt to allow more people with mobility impairment to access services. Parts of outer Barnet and Enfield have a high proportion of older people, where public transport accessibility is not particular extensive. There are also high concentrations of people whose day to day activities are limited, particularly in Wood Green and northern Waltham Forest. Other residents may have problems accessing the transport network due to mobility issues and a corresponding lack of step- free access. In north Enfield in particular, a lack of step-free access increases journey times for those with mobility needs. Consideration should be given to implementing measures which could help to rectify this. Physical accessibility involves the design and layout of all the main component parts of the transport 5.4% of sub-region's network; vehicles, stations and population are aged streets. Improving one of these over 75 - the most of alone however is likely to produce any sub-region little benefit and all three need to be addressed simultaneously to have significant impacts.

Population Population whose Difference in step aged over 75 activities are limited free travel time Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Travel times on the step Percentage (%) of people free network have improved Proportion of population whose day to day activities are limited 2011 with activities limited by but more needs to be done health problems N 5 Kms by MSOA 2011 As London's population ages, its 0 1 2 3 Miles over 17 transport network will need to up to 17 adapt to allow more people with up to 15.5 mobility impairment to access up to 14.5 services. Parts of outer Barnet up to 13.5 and Enfield have a high proportion up to 12 of older people, where public transport accessibility is not particular extensive. There are also high concentrations of people whose day to day activities are limited, particularly in Wood Green and northern Waltham Forest. Other residents may have problems accessing the transport network due to mobility issues and a corresponding lack of step- free access. In north Enfield in particular, a lack of step-free access increases journey times for those with mobility needs. Consideration should be given to implementing measures which could help to rectify this. Physical accessibility involves the design and layout of all the main component parts of the transport Day to day activities network; vehicles, stations and are limited for 14.5% streets. Improving one of these of the sub-region's alone however is likely to produce population little benefit and all three need to be addressed simultaneously to have significant impacts.

Population Population whose Difference in step aged over 75 activities are limited free travel time Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Liveability

Travel times on the step Difference in step free travel time Difference in total time free network have improved weighted but more needs to be done Greatest difference N 5 Kms As London's population ages, its 0 1 2 3 Miles transport network will need to adapt to allow more people with Least difference mobility impairment to access services. Parts of outer Barnet and Enfield have a high proportion of older people, where public transport accessibility is not particular extensive. There are also high concentrations of people whose day to day activities are limited, particularly in Wood Green and northern Waltham Forest. Other residents may have problems accessing the transport network due to mobility issues and a corresponding lack of step- free access. In north Enfield in particular, a lack of step-free access increases journey times for those with mobility needs. Consideration should be given to implementing measures which could help to rectify this. Physical accessibility involves the design and layout of all the main component parts of the transport network; vehicles, stations and streets. Improving one of these alone however is likely to produce little benefit and all three need to be addressed simultaneously to have significant impacts.

Population Population whose Difference in step aged over 75 activities are limited free travel time Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

Population Employment Mode and movement Network capacity and connectivity Liveability Future growth

Future growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

London's population will continue to grow, generating more demand for transport Population projections which informed the Further Alterations to the London Plan estimate that the Capital's population will increase to almost 10 million by 2030. Further projections produced to London's future population growth inform the London Infrastructure Plan 2050 estimate that the population will continue to grow to almost 11.5 million by 2050. This 16,000,000 will only be possible if sufficient infrastructure, particularly transport 14,000,000 infrastructure, is delivered to Trend - High support what will be a much larger and denser city compared to today. 12,000,000 Despite previous predictions of Trend - Central homeworking and technology 2013 SHLAA capped 10,000,000 reducing the need to travel, trip Trend - Low rates have remained stable for many years. While there may some more 8,000,000 flexible working, individual trip rates are likely to remain fairly stable 6,000,000 and, with increasing population, overall the number of trips are expected to increase. This would 4,000,000 mean an increase of 35-40% in the number of trips under the central population projection by 2050, with 2,000,000 an increase in public transport trips of about 70% compared to today. 0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Insufficient levels of housing are a risk to London's competitiveness. Transport is key to unlocking new homes In order to cater for London's rapidly growing population, the GLA estimates that the city will need 49,000 housing units a year. Delivery of housing units vs current London wide housing target However, just half this rate is currently being delivered across the city. The only time that London has ever built more than 49,000 80,000 units was in the interwar period, although during this time London 70,000 Annual housing did not have a planning system or delivery a Greenbelt to manage growth. Figures estimated The shortage of housing has been 60,000 from national data a key factor in rising prices, with low levels of affordability driving 50,000 London Plan annual overcrowding, restricting locational target – 42,000 p.a choice and causing concern from businesses who believe that it is 40,000 constraining the labour market and hurting London's competitiveness. 30,000 Good transport connectivity, as well as frequency and quality of 20,000 service are key drivers in unlocking housing. Accessible places are more attractive, attract higher 10,000 prices and therefore increase the viability of housing development. 0 Investment in the existing network, as well as extensions to 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011 the network, can help to unlock significant levels of housing.

AverageLondon's speed future by PublicDelivery transport of housing publicpopulation transport growth 2011 accessibilityunits vs current levels target Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Insufficient levels of Delivery of housing 2009 – 2014 and proximity to a rail station housing are a risk to The rate of housing London's competitiveness. delivery since 2000 Transport is key to has been twice as unlocking new homes high within 1km of In order to cater for London's a TfL station rapidly growing population, the GLA estimates that the city will need 49,000 housing units a year. However, just half this rate is currently being delivered across the city. The only time that London has ever built more than 49,000 units was in the interwar period, although during this time London did not have a planning system or a Greenbelt to manage growth. The shortage of housing has been a key factor in rising prices, with low levels of affordability driving overcrowding, restricting locational choice and causing concern from businesses who believe that it is constraining the labour market and hurting London's competitiveness. Good transport connectivity, as well as frequency and quality of service are key drivers in unlocking housing. Accessible places are more attractive, attract higher prices and therefore increase the viability of housing development. Investment in the existing Properties built from 2009 - 2014 network, as well as extensions to the network, can help to unlock up to 1,120 significant levels of housing. up to 500 up to 250 up to 100 TfL services National Rail services AverageLondon's speed future by PublicDelivery transport of housing Opportunity areas publicpopulation transport growth 2011 accessibilityunits vs current levels target Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Future employment growth in office based sectors will increase demand for rail based modes Change in employment sectors in London 2011 – 2031 London's strong employment growth is expected to continue, with a 14% increase in employment Most common modes to employment growth sectors 2001 2031 across all sectors to 2031. 1,000 Growth is expected to continue in office based sectors, including 900 professional and scientific 49% 52% 51% 36% 36% 50% 36% 56% 66% 57% 40% 37%n.a. 37% 39% n.a. activities, whilst employment in manufacturing, transport, wholesale 800 and construction will decline. 700 As office based sectors are % of employment in PTALs 5 and 6 increasingly seeking the most 30% 20% 30% 46% 46% 32% 60% 66% 84% 72% 52% n.a. 35%35%53% n.a. accessible locations by public 600 transport, particularly in Central London, demand for public 500 transport modes is likely to increase. It will be important to ensure there is sufficient capacity 400 on the network to serve these ('000s) Employment growing sectors, and support 300 London's economic growth.

Most of the sectors which are 200 expected to contract are typically access by car, which could continue to push down commuting to work 100 by car. The decline of these sectors also has the potential to free up 0 land for housing or other land uses Primary andManufacturing UtilitiesConstructionWholesaleRetail Transport Accommodationand StorageInformation andFinancial Food and Communication andProfessional InsuranceAdministrative and ScientificPublic AdminActivitiesEducation and DefenceHealth Arts and EntertainmentOther for more intensive development.

Almost 700,000 additional jobs in London by 2031 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

The sub-region's population will continue to grow, along 147,000 additional with its housing need people in the sub- Population projections which region by 2031 informed the Further Alterations to the London Plan estimate that the population of the sub- region will grow by an additional Population growth 2011 – 2031 147,000 people between 2011 and 2031, with some boroughs expected to see significantly higher 80,000 levels of growth than others. Barnet has significant potential for 70,000 housing growth, and is therefore expected to see the greatest 60,000 poppulation increase. At the other end of the scale, population growth in Enfield, where there is little 50,000 housing development planned, is expected to be relatively low. 40,000 Rates of housing delivery will need to increase in all Boroughs 30,000 in the sub-region if London Plan housing targets are to be met, particularly Barnet and Haringey, 20,000 with a well functioning transport network key to achieving this. 10,000

0 Barnet Haringey Waltham Forest Enfield

The sub-region's population will continue to grow, along with its housing need Population projections which informed the Further Alterations to the London Plan estimate that the population of the sub- region will grow by an additional Annual housing delivery 2004 – 2014 147,000 people between 2011 and 2031, with some boroughs 2,500 expected to see significantly higher Annual housing levels of growth than others. target 2015 - 2025 Barnet has significant potential for housing growth, and is therefore 2,000 expected to see the greatest poppulation increase. At the other end of the scale, population growth in Enfield, where there is little 1,500 housing development planned, is expected to be relatively low. Rates of housing delivery will need to increase in all Boroughs 1,000 in the sub-region if London Plan housing targets are to be met, particularly Barnet and Haringey, with a well functioning transport 500 network key to achieving this.

0 Barnet Haringey Waltham Forest Enfield

There is potential to Opportunity Area support higher levels of Population growth 2011 – 2031 (London Plan scenario) population growth than N 5 Kms Absolute population growth currently being planned for by LTS zones (2011 - 2031) 0 1 2 3 Miles The Further Alterations to up to 30,500 the London Plan identified up to 12,000 up to 8,000 opportunities for significant housing up to 4,000 growth at Cricklewood/Brent up to 2,000 Cross, Colindale, Wood Green and up to 1,000 the Upper Lea Valley. Maintaining under 0 (decrease) the capacity and connectivity of the transport network will be key to unlcoking these growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see housing growth from conversions, infill and smaller development schemes. There is also significant potential for higher levels of growth than those set out in the Further Alterations to the London Plan, particularly at locations already well served by transport infrastructure and at places where significant improvements are planned. In particular there is potential for .higher growth than that planned along the Upper Lea Valley and at New Southgate, as a result of Crossrail 2. Denser levels of development could also come forward around station locations, subject to addressing wider planning policy objectives.

Population growth Population growth Potential locations 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2041 for further growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

There is potential to Population growth 2011 – 2041 (Maximum growth scenario) Absolute population growth support higher levels of by LTS zones (2011 - 2041) population growth than up to 30,500 N 5 Kms currently being planned for up to 12,000 0 1 2 3 Miles up to 8,000 The Further Alterations to up to 4,000 the London Plan identified up to 2,000 opportunities for significant housing up to 1,000 growth at Cricklewood/Brent under 0 (decrease) Cross, Colindale, Wood Green and the Upper Lea Valley. Maintaining the capacity and connectivity of the transport network will be key to unlcoking these growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see housing growth from conversions, infill and smaller development schemes. There is also significant potential for higher levels of growth than those set out in the Further Alterations to the London Plan, particularly at locations already well served by transport infrastructure and at places where significant improvements are planned. In particular there is potential for .higher growth than that planned along the Upper Lea Valley and at New Southgate, as a result of Crossrail 2. Denser levels of development could also come forward around station locations, subject to addressing wider planning policy objectives.

Population growth Population growth Potential locations 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2041 for further growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

There is potential to Potential location for support higher levels of Potential location for further growth further growth population growth than N 5 Kms currently being planned for Absolute population growth 0 1 2 3 Miles by LTS zones (2011 - 2041) The Further Alterations to up to 30,500 the London Plan identified up to 12,000 opportunities for significant housing up to 8,000 growth at Cricklewood/Brent up to 4,000 Cross, Colindale, Wood Green and up to 2,000 the Upper Lea Valley. Maintaining up to 1,000 the capacity and connectivity of under 0 (decrease) the transport network will be key to unlcoking these growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see housing growth from conversions, infill and smaller development schemes. There is also significant potential for higher levels of growth than those set out in the Further Alterations to the London Plan, particularly at locations already well served by transport infrastructure and at places where significant improvements are planned. In particular there is potential for .higher growth than that planned along the Upper Lea Valley and at New Southgate, as a result of Crossrail 2. Denser levels of development could also come forward around station locations, subject to addressing wider planning policy objectives.

Population growth Population growth Potential locations 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2041 for further growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Some major growth locations will need Housing growth 2011 – 2031 vs current 2015 PTAL better public transport connectivity to unlock N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles development As the shift to public transport modes continues, with households increasingly less likely to own a car, proximity to the public transport network is becoming ever more important to where people chose to live. Housing development is therefore increasingly dependent on good public transport access. Most places where significant housing development is planned already have good public transport accessibility within the sub-region, although there will be a need to improve links to and from the Upper Lea Valley to maximse the significant growth potential that exists here. Whilst Crossrail 2 will provide a step change in connectivity, local transport links will be required to ensure the sub-region's residents can access jobs here, and new residents in the Upper Lea Vallley can access jobs and local services elsewhere in the sub-region.

Homes growth / sqm PTAL score 2015 2011 to 2031 0 500 1a 1,000 1b 2,000 2 3,000 3 4 5 6a AverageHousing speedgrowth by PublicHousing transport growth 6b public2011 – transport2031 2011 accessibility2011 – 2041 levels Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Some major growth locations will need Housing growth 2011 – 2041 (maximum growth) vs 2031 PTAL better public transport connectivity to unlock N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles development As the shift to public transport modes continues, with households increasingly less likely to own a car, proximity to the public transport network is becoming ever more important to where people chose to live. Housing development is therefore increasingly dependent on good public transport access. Most places where significant housing development is planned already have good public transport accessibility within the sub-region, although there will be a need to improve links to and from the Upper Lea Valley to maximse the significant growth potential that exists here. Whilst Crossrail 2 will provide a step change in connectivity, local transport links will be required to ensure the sub-region's residents can access jobs here, and new residents in the Upper Lea Vallley can access jobs and local services elsewhere in the sub-region.

Potential location PTAL score 2031 for further growth 0 1a Homes growth / sqm 1b 2011 to 2041 2 500 3 1,000 4 2,000 5 3,000 6a AverageHousing speedgrowth by PublicHousing transport growth 6b public2011 – transport2031 2011 accessibility2011 – 2041 levels Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

The proportion of older Increase in population aged over 65 2011 – 2031 Increase in share of people will increase, population aged over 65 generating more demand (2011 - 2031) for an accessible N 5 Kms up to 2.4% 0 1 2 3 Miles transport network up to 0.9% up to 0.7% The number of people aged over up to 0.5% 65 is expected to increase by up to 0.3% 77,000 between 2011 and 2031, -0.2% to 0% with the greatest increase in the share of the population at Hornsey, Colindale and Blackhorse Road.

The number of North sub-region residents aged over 65 will increase by 58% between 2011 and 2031 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

There is potential to support higher levels of 51,000 more employment growth at jobs in the sub- key transport nodes region by 2031 The Further Alterations to the London Plan identified that employment could grow by Employment growth 2011 – 2031 13% between 2011 and 2031 in the sub-region. The Plan also identified opportunities for 18,000 employment floorspace growth at Wood Green, the Upper Lea Valley and Cricklewood/Brent 15,000 Cross. Maintaining the capacity and connectivity of the transport network, as well as providing new links, will be key to unlocking these 12,000 growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see employment growth 9,000 through redevelopment and the expansion of existing businesses. Retail floorspace in the sub-region's 6,000 town centres is also expected to grow, with most of the growth expected to occur at the larger 3,000 centres of Wood Green and Enfield Town, and smaller District Centres expected to contract. 0 Although not yet classified as a Haringey Barnet Enfield Waltham Forest 'town centre', and so not shown in the figures here, there are plans to increase the amount of retail floorspace at Brent Cross Shopping Centre by over 50,000sq.m

Employment growth Employment growth Growth in town centre 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2031 retail floorspace Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

There is potential to Opportunity Area support higher levels of Employment growth 2011 – 2031 employment growth at N 5 Kms Absolute employment growth key transport nodes by LTS zones (2011-2031) 0 1 2 3 Miles The Further Alterations to the up to 50,500 London Plan identified that up to 12,000 up to 8,000 employment could grow by up to 4,000 13% between 2011 and 2031 up to 2,000 in the sub-region. The Plan also up to 1,000 identified opportunities for under 0 (decrease) employment floorspace growth at Wood Green, the Upper Lea Valley and Cricklewood/Brent Cross. Maintaining the capacity and connectivity of the transport network, as well as providing new links, will be key to unlocking these growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see employment growth through redevelopment and the expansion of existing businesses. Retail floorspace in the sub-region's town centres is also expected to grow, with most of the growth expected to occur at the larger centres of Wood Green and Enfield Town, and smaller District Centres expected to contract. Although not yet classified as a 'town centre', and so not shown in the figures here, there are plans to increase the amount of retail floorspace at Brent Cross Shopping Centre by over 50,000sq.m

Employment growth Employment growth Growth in town centre 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2031 retail floorspace Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

There is potential to Growth in town centre retail floorspace 2001 – 2031 Retail floorspace required by 2031 support higher levels of (sqm) employment growth at N 5 Kms key transport nodes over 25,000 0 1 2 3 Miles The Further Alterations to the up to 25,000 London Plan identified that up to 10,000 employment could grow by up to 3,000 13% between 2011 and 2031 up to 1,000 in the sub-region. The Plan also below 0 (decrease) identified opportunities for employment floorspace growth at Wood Green, the Upper Lea Valley and Cricklewood/Brent Cross. Maintaining the capacity and connectivity of the transport network, as well as providing new links, will be key to unlocking these growth sites. Other locations throughout the sub-region will also see employment growth through redevelopment and the expansion of existing businesses. Retail floorspace in the sub-region's town centres is also expected to grow, with most of the growth expected to occur at the larger centres of Wood Green and Enfield Town, and smaller District Centres expected to contract. Although not yet classified as a 'town centre', and so not shown in the figures here, there are plans to increase the amount of retail floorspace at Brent Cross Shopping Centre by over 50,000sq.m

Employment growth Employment growth Growth in town centre 2011 – 2031 2011 – 2031 retail floorspace Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

The number of vans on the highway network Vehicle kms by van will continue to grow expected to increase by 23% by 2031 The logistics sector plays a key role in supporting London's economy, providing vital support to commercial activities through London London the delivery of goods. Online Growth in van vehicle kms 2011 – 2031 commerce is expected to continue growing, in part contributing to an 35% estimated 23% increase in demand for vans on the sub-region's roads. 30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

0% Waltham ForestBarnet Enfield Haringey East Total West Total North Total South Total Central Total London Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Public transport mode share will continue to increase, but only if capacity is increased to accommodate growth Based on the continuation of recent trends, mode share of public Mode shift 2011 – 2031 transport and active travel modes will increase as mode share for car falls. Much of this change is Car expected to come about from new 6% Public transport residents, whose travel patterns are Active often different to existing residents. 4% Boroughs will therefore need to take action to encourage mode shift amongst existing travellers 2% too. In order to achieve this shift to more sustainable modes there 0% will need to be considerable behavioural change in addition to investment in infrastructure. -2% Measures to encourage a shift away from car could include smarter -4% travel initiatives and measures to turn walking and cycling potential into reality. Other measures -6% still allow access to services without having to travel as far, -8% for example through better use of IT and freight consolidation. -10% Harringey Enfield Barnet Waltham Forest Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Highway congestion will Junction delay 2031 (AM peak) Junction Delay (PCU Hours) get worse without many 2031 low car AM peak more people switching N 5 Kms to alternative modes up to 1,100 0 1 2 3 Miles Under current forecasts, whilst car up to 800 mode share will fall, population up to 600 and employment growth mean up to 400 there will be an increase in the up to 200 number of cars using the highway 50 to 100 network in the sub-region, resulting in increased congestion. This could constrain economic growth, lower quality of life for existing residents and prevent the sub- region from fulfilling its growth potential. Particular locations where congestion is expected to be most significant are the A406, with pinch points at Henlys Corner and Bounds Green, the A10, with pinch points at Soutbury Road, Caterhatch Lane and Bullsmoor Lane and the A5 from Brent Cross to Cricklewood. Continued efforts to support mode shift away from motorised highway modes, as well as measures to optimise the operation of the highway network, will be required to tackle these issues.

AverageJunction speed delay by PublicChange transport in junction public2031 (AM transport peak) 2011 accessibilitydelay 2011 – levels2031 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Highway congestion will Change in junction delay 2011 – 2031 (AM peak) Change in junction delay get worse without many PCU hours more people switching over 300 to alternative modes N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles 200 to 300 Under current forecasts, whilst car 100 to 200 mode share will fall, population 20 to 100 and employment growth mean -100 to -20 there will be an increase in the number of cars using the highway -200 to -100 network in the sub-region, resulting -300 to -200 in increased congestion. This could constrain economic growth, lower quality of life for existing residents and prevent the sub- region from fulfilling its growth potential. Particular locations where congestion is expected to be most significant are the A406, with pinch points at Henlys Corner and Bounds Green, the A10, with pinch points at Soutbury Road, Caterhatch Lane and Bullsmoor Lane and the A5 from Brent Cross to Cricklewood. Continued efforts to support mode shift away from motorised highway modes, as well as measures to optimise the operation of the highway network, will be required to tackle these issues. Average car speed expected to decrease by 2% by 2031

Increased levels of Bus delay 2031 (AM peak) Speed (km/h) congestion will slow AM peak bus services, which are over 40 a vital element of the N 5 Kms up to 33 0 1 2 3 Miles public transport network up to 29 up to 25 in the sub-region up to 15 London's strong employment growth is expected to continue, with a 14% increase in employment across all sectors to 2031. Growth is expected to continue in office based sectors, including professional and scientific activities, whilst employment in manufacturing, transport, wholesale and construction will decline. As office based sectors are increasingly seeking the most accessible locations by public transport, particularly in Central London, demand for public transport modes is likely to increase. It will be important to ensure there is sufficient capacity on the network to serve these growing sectors, and support London's economic growth. Most of the sectors which are expected to contract are typically access by car, which could continue Average bus to push down commuting to work speed expected by car. The decline of these sectors to decrease by also has the potential to free up 2% by 2031 land for housing or other land uses for more intensive development.

AverageBus delay speed 2031 by PublicChange transport in bus public(AM peak) transport 2011 accessibilitydelay 2012 – levels2031 Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Increased levels of Change in bus delay 2012 – 2031 (AM peak) % change in speed congestion will slow 2031 vs 2012, AM peak bus services, which are over 50 a vital element of the N 5 Kms 10 to 50 0 1 2 3 Miles public transport network 0 to 10 -10 to 0 in the sub-region -50 to -10 For many people, buses provide -100 to -50 the main means to access their local jobs, schools, shops and services across the sub-region. But as highway congestion increases, this could have the result of reducing average bus speeds without measures to further prioritise bus operations. This also needs to be set against an anticipated increase in overall bus demand, driven by increasing levels of population and employment growth, in the sub-region. Services will need to respond to changes in demand through the process of continuing consultation and review, with new or expanded services desirable, particularly to serve growth areas. Any measures to maintain bus reliability and journey times will need to be designed to complement measures for pedestrains, cyclists, smoother traffic flows and the urban realm.

WithoutRailplan investment in Scenario WE094A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Underground and DLR crowding 2031 without investment Chesham the rail network, many Amersham lines will be at capacity,Watford Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois constraining growth Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley As the sub-region's population Loughton Chorleywood continues to grow, and as its Totteridge & Whetstone Southgate Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove residents increasingly use rail Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodbased modes to access growing West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon employmentNorthwood opportunities across Hills Roding Valley Chigwell London, the demand for rail and Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip Harrow & Wealdstone Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Underground trips will increase Queensbury Grange Hill Manor Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford significantly.North HarrowWithout investment,Kenton Colindale Eastcote Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens thisRayners will Lane mean sectionsHarrow- ofNorthwick both Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop the Underground and National Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South HarrowRail network will be over capacity Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead by 2031. The Northern, Picadilly Willesden Newbury Park Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green and Victoria lines will all be over House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudburycapacity Hill approaching centralWembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone London. The Gospel Oak to Hornchurch SudburyBarking Town Line will be over capacity,Harlesden Kentish Town Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford with parts of the West Anglia and Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Great Northern lines also very Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale crowded. Without investment, Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent this will restrict the number of Stratford Becontree people that can access jobs and Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross services from, to and within the Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger sub-region,Lane harming quality of Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road life and constraining growth. Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner Square Common Piccadilly 2 Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent < 1 standing / m Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge Charing 2 Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's1 to 2 standing / m Cross South Barons Gloucester Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith Sloane West Ealing Court Court Road 2 Silvertown 2 to 3 standing / mSquare Victoria Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor 2 Quay Northfields 3 to 4 standing / m River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's Embankment Osterley 2 Park Green Brook Park Kensington 4 to 5 standingKensington / m Park Beckton North Hounslow 2 Bermondsey > 5 standing / m Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2031 crowding 2031Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 < 1 standing / m Addington Village 1 to 2 standing / m2 Fieldway King Henry’s Drive 2 to 3 standing / m2 New Addington 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 > 5 standing / m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Without investment in the rail network, many National Rail crowding 2031 without investment Railplanlines will be at capacity, Scenario WE094A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) constraining growth Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill As the sub-region's population Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont continues to grow, and as its New Barnet Bushey Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park residents increasingly use rail Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood based modesCarpenders to access Park growing Enfield Lock High Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford employment opportunities across Park Hatch End Southbury London, the demand for rail and Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End UndergroundHeadstone trips will Lane increase New Southgate Edmonton Green Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park significantly. Without investment, Angel Road Harrow & Wealdstone Silver Street Brentwood this will mean sections of both Alexandra Palace Wood Street the Underground andKenton National White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards Rail networkHarrow- will be over capacity Bruce Grove Southend and by 2031.on-the The-Hill Northern, Picadilly Hendon Shoeburyness Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park and Victoria lines will all be over Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill capacity approachingSouth Kenton central Cricklewood Green Lanes Central Sudbury Hill Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster London. The Gospel Oak to Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road BarkingSudbury &Line Wembley will be Central over capacity, Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton with parts ofStonebridge the West Park Anglia and & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Great Northern lines also very Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park crowded. Without investment, Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes this will restrict the number of Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings people that can access jobs and Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford services from, to and within the Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields sub-region, harming quality of Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate life and constraining growth. Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West Broadway Main White City Bush Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Court Road Thameslink Acton < 1 standing / m Central 1 to 2 standing / m2 Custom House Kensington Shadwell for ExCel 2 South (Olympia) 2 to 3 standing / m Blackfriars Cannon Acton 2 3 to 4 standing / m Charing Street Limehouse Cross 4 to 5 standing / m2 Fenchurch Street Wapping > 5 standing /Victoria m2 River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail Change in UG and Canary Wharf Change in National Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLR crowding 2031Waterloo crowding 2031 DLR crowding Rail crowding Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches 2 < 1 standing / m Belmont Purley Towards Guildford Sanderstead 1 to 2 standing / m2 Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham Chipstead Riddlesdown 2 to 3 standing / m2 Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South Kingswood Kenley 3 to 4 standing / m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Whyteleafe South 4 to 5 standing / m2 Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Towards 2 > 5 standing / m Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Railplan ScenarioWithout investment WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio in vs WE094A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Change in Underground and DLR crowding 2031 without investment Chesham the rail network, many Amersham lines will be at capacity,Watford Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois constraining growth Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley As the sub-region's population Loughton Chorleywood continues to grow, and as its Totteridge & Whetstone Southgate Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove residents increasingly use rail Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodbased modes to access growing West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon employmentNorthwood opportunities across Hills Roding Valley Chigwell London, the demand for rail and Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip Harrow & Wealdstone Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Underground trips will increase Queensbury Grange Hill Manor Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford significantly.North HarrowWithout investment,Kenton Colindale Eastcote Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens thisRayners will Lane mean sectionsHarrow- ofNorthwick both Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop the Underground and National Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South HarrowRail network will be over capacity Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead by 2031. The Northern, Picadilly Willesden Newbury Park Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green and Victoria lines will all be over House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudburycapacity Hill approaching centralWembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone London. The Gospel Oak to Hornchurch SudburyBarking Town Line will be over capacity,Harlesden Kentish Town Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford with parts of the West Anglia and Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Great Northern lines also very Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale crowded. Without investment, Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent this will restrict the number of Stratford Becontree people that can access jobs and Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross services from, to and within the Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger sub-region,Lane harming quality of Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road life and constraining growth. Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park 2 Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Reduction of > 1 standing / m Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner 2 Square Common Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standing / mPiccadilly Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge 2 Charing Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's Cross South Barons Gloucester 2 Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith +/- 0.2 standing / mSloane West Ealing Court Court Road Silvertown Square Victoria 2 Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Quay Northfields River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's 2 Embankment Osterley Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Park Green Brook Park Kensington Kensington Park Beckton 2 North Hounslow Increase of > 1 standing / m Bermondsey Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2031 crowding 2031Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 Reduction of more than 1 person standing per m Addington Village 2 Reduction of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m Fieldway Reduction of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 King Henry’s Drive +/- 0.2 people standing per m2 New Addington Increase of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Increase of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m2 Increase of more than 1 person standing per m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Without investment in the rail network, many Change in National Rail crowding 2031 without investment Railplan Scenariolines will WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio be at capacity, vs WE094A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) constraining growth Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill As the sub-region's population Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont continues to grow, and as its New Barnet Bushey Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park residents increasingly use rail Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood based modesCarpenders to access Park growing Enfield Lock High Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford employment opportunities across Park Hatch End Southbury London, the demand for rail and Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End UndergroundHeadstone trips will Lane increase New Southgate Edmonton Green Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park significantly. Without investment, Angel Road Harrow & Wealdstone Silver Street Brentwood this will mean sections of both Alexandra Palace Wood Street the Underground andKenton National White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards Rail networkHarrow- will be over capacity Bruce Grove Southend and by 2031.on-the The-Hill Northern, Picadilly Hendon Shoeburyness Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park and Victoria lines will all be over Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill capacity approachingSouth Kenton central Cricklewood Green Lanes Central Sudbury Hill Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster London. The Gospel Oak to Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road BarkingSudbury &Line Wembley will be Central over capacity, Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton with parts ofStonebridge the West Park Anglia and & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Great Northern lines also very Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park crowded. Without investment, Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes this will restrict the number of Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings people that can access jobs and Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford services from, to and within the Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields sub-region, harming quality of Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate life and constraining growth. Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West White City Broadway Main Bush 2 Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Reduction of > 1 standing / m Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standingCourt / Road m Thameslink Acton 2 Central Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Custom House Kensington +/- 0.2 standing / m2 Shadwell for ExCel South (Olympia) 2 Blackfriars Acton Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Cannon Charing Street Limehouse 2 Cross Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Fenchurch Street Increase of > Victoria1 standing / m2 Wapping River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail Change in UG and Canary Wharf Change in National Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLR crowding 2031Waterloo crowding 2031 DLR crowding Rail crowding Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches 2 Reduction of more than 1 person standing per m Belmont Purley Towards2 Reduction of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per mGuildford Sanderstead Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham 2 Reduction of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m Chipstead Riddlesdown Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South +/- 0.2 people standing per m2 Kingswood Kenley Increase of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Whyteleafe South Increase of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m2 Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Increase of more than 1 person standing per m2 Towards Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

With plannedRailplan levels of Scenario WE003A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Underground and DLR crowding with investment as per 2015 business plan Chesham investment in the rail Amersham network, there willWatford be Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois sufficient capacity to Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley support growth to 2031 Southgate Loughton Chorleywood In order to address the forecast Totteridge & Whetstone Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove increase in demand for rail, both TfL Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodand Network Rail have commited West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon Northwood to Hillsinvestment which will increase Roding Valley Chigwell Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip the capacity of rail linesHarrow serving& Wealdstone the Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Queensbury Grange Hill Manor sub-region. This investment will Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford North Harrow Kenton Colindale Eastcotebring estimated crowding down to Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens levelsRayners Lanesimilar to thoseHarrow- experiencedNorthwick Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop today. However, this still means Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South Harrowthat, despite funded interventions, Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead Willesden Newbury Park crowding will worsen on a number Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green of lines, including from Barking to House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudbury Hill Wembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Gospel Oak, from Enfield Lock to Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone Tottenham Hale and along much Hornchurch Sudbury Town Harlesden Kentish Town of the Great Northern line. Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent Stratford Becontree Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger Lane Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner Square Common Piccadilly 2 Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent < 1 standing / m Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge Charing 2 Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's1 to 2 standing / m Cross South Barons Gloucester Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith Sloane West Ealing Court Court Road 2 Silvertown 2 to 3 standing / mSquare Victoria Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor 2 Quay Northfields 3 to 4 standing / m River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's Embankment Osterley 2 Park Green Brook Park Kensington 4 to 5 standingKensington / m Park Beckton North Hounslow 2 Bermondsey > 5 standing / m Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2031 crowding 2031Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 < 1 standing / m Addington Village 1 to 2 standing / m2 Fieldway King Henry’s Drive 2 to 3 standing / m2 New Addington 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 > 5 standing / m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Railplan ScenarioWith planned levelsWE001A08A_SQM_Ratio of vs WE003A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Change in Underground and DLR crowding 2031 with investment as per 2015 business plan Chesham investment in the rail Amersham network, there willWatford be Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois sufficient capacity to Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley support growth to 2031 Southgate Loughton Chorleywood In order to address the forecast Totteridge & Whetstone Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove increase in demand for rail, both TfL Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodand Network Rail have commited West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon Northwood to Hillsinvestment which will increase Roding Valley Chigwell Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip the capacity of rail linesHarrow serving& Wealdstone the Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Queensbury Grange Hill Manor sub-region. This investment will Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford North Harrow Kenton Colindale Eastcotebring estimated crowding down to Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens levelsRayners Lanesimilar to thoseHarrow- experiencedNorthwick Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop today. However, this still means Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South Harrowthat, despite funded interventions, Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead Willesden Newbury Park crowding will worsen on a number Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green of lines, including from Barking to House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudbury Hill Wembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Gospel Oak, from Enfield Lock to Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone Tottenham Hale and along much Hornchurch Sudbury Town Harlesden Kentish Town of the Great Northern line. Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent Stratford Becontree Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger Lane Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park 2 Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Reduction of > 1 standing / m Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner 2 Square Common Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standing / mPiccadilly Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge 2 Charing Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's Cross South Barons Gloucester 2 Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith +/- 0.2 standing / mSloane West Ealing Court Court Road Silvertown Square Victoria 2 Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Quay Northfields River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's 2 Embankment Osterley Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Park Green Brook Park Kensington Kensington Park Beckton 2 North Hounslow Increase of > 1 standing / m Bermondsey Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2031 crowding 2031Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 Reduction of more than 1 person standing per m Addington Village 2 Reduction of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m Fieldway 2 Reduction of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m King Henry’s Drive +/- 0.2 people standing per m2 New Addington Increase of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Increase of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m2 Increase of more than 1 person standing per m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

With planned levels of investment in the rail National Rail crowding 2031 with investment Railplannetwork, there will Scenario be WE003A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) sufficient capacity to Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill support growth to 2031 Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont New Barnet In order to addressBushey the forecast Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park increase in demand for rail, both TfL Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood Carpenders Park Enfield Lock High and Network Rail have commited Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford Park to investment whichHatch Endwill increase Southbury Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford the capacity of rail lines serving the Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End Headstone Lane New Southgate Edmonton Green sub-region. This investment will Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park Angel Road bring estimatedHarrow & Wealdstone crowding down to Silver Street Brentwood levels similar to those experienced Alexandra Palace Wood Street today. However, thisKenton still means White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards that, despiteHarrow- funded interventions, Bruce Grove Southend and on-the-Hill Hendon Shoeburyness crowding will worsen on a number Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park of lines, including from Barking to Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill South Kenton Cricklewood Green Lanes Central SudburyGospel Hill Oak, from Enfield Lock to Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Tottenham Hale and along much Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road of Sudburythe Great & Wembley Northern Central line. Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton Stonebridge Park & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West Broadway Main White City Bush Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Court Road Thameslink Acton < 1 standing / m Central 1 to 2 standing / m2 Custom House Kensington Shadwell for ExCel 2 South (Olympia) 2 to 3 standing / m Blackfriars Cannon Acton 2 3 to 4 standing / m Charing Street Limehouse Cross 4 to 5 standing / m2 Fenchurch Street Wapping > 5 standing /Victoria m2 River Thames

Rotherhithe

With planned levels of investment in the rail Change in National Rail crowding 2031 with investment Railplan Scenarionetwork, WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio there will be vs WE003A25E_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) sufficient capacity to Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill support growth to 2031 Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont New Barnet In order to addressBushey the forecast Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park increase in demand for rail, both TfL Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood Carpenders Park Enfield Lock High and Network Rail have commited Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford Park to investment whichHatch Endwill increase Southbury Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford the capacity of rail lines serving the Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End Headstone Lane New Southgate Edmonton Green sub-region. This investment will Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park Angel Road bring estimatedHarrow & Wealdstone crowding down to Silver Street Brentwood levels similar to those experienced Alexandra Palace Wood Street today. However, thisKenton still means White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards that, despiteHarrow- funded interventions, Bruce Grove Southend and on-the-Hill Hendon Shoeburyness crowding will worsen on a number Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park of lines, including from Barking to Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill South Kenton Cricklewood Green Lanes Central SudburyGospel Hill Oak, from Enfield Lock to Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Tottenham Hale and along much Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road of Sudburythe Great & Wembley Northern Central line. Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton Stonebridge Park & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West White City Broadway Main Bush 2 Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Reduction of > 1 standing / m Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standingCourt / Road m Thameslink Acton 2 Central Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Custom House Kensington +/- 0.2 standing / m2 Shadwell for ExCel South (Olympia) 2 Blackfriars Acton Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Cannon Charing Street Limehouse 2 Cross Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Fenchurch Street Increase of > Victoria1 standing / m2 Wapping River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail Change in UG and Canary Wharf Change in National Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLR crowding 2031Waterloo crowding 2031 DLR crowding Rail crowding Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches Reduction of more than 1 person standing per m2 Belmont Purley Towards2 Reduction of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per mGuildford Sanderstead Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham Reduction of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Chipstead Riddlesdown +/- 0.2 people standing per m2 Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South Kingswood Kenley Increase of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Increase of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m2 Whyteleafe South Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Increase of more than 1 person standing per m2 Towards Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

But furtherRailplan investment Scenario WE054A40G_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Underground and DLR crowding 2041 with investment as per 2015 business plan Chesham on the rail network above Amersham that already committedWatford Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois will be required to support Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley higher levels of growth Southgate Loughton Chorleywood Once higher levels of growth Totteridge & Whetstone Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove to 2041 are taken into account, Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodcrowding is expected to worsen West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon Northwood alongHills the Edgware branch of the Roding Valley Chigwell Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip Northern line, as wellHarrow as & from Wealdstone Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Queensbury Grange Hill Manor Seven Sisters on the Victoria line. Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford North Harrow Kenton Colindale EastcoteCrowding will also become much Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens worseRayners Laneon the GreatHarrow Northern- Northwick Line. Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop These estimates do not include Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South Harrowthe significant potential levels of Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead Willesden Newbury Park growth which could be unlocked by Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green Crossrail 2 in the Upper Lea Valley. House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudbury Hill Wembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone Hornchurch Sudbury Town Harlesden Kentish Town Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent Stratford Becontree Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger Lane Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner Square Common Piccadilly 2 Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent < 1 standing / m Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge Charing 2 Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's1 to 2 standing / m Cross South Barons Gloucester Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith Sloane West Ealing Court Court Road 2 Silvertown 2 to 3 standing / mSquare Victoria Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor 2 Quay Northfields 3 to 4 standing / m River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's Embankment Osterley 2 Park Green Brook Park Kensington 4 to 5 standingKensington / m Park Beckton North Hounslow 2 Bermondsey > 5 standing / m Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2041 crowding 2041Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

Church East Sandilands Street Croydon Lloyd Park Coombe Lane Gravel Hill 2 < 1 standing / m Addington Village 1 to 2 standing / m2 Fieldway King Henry’s Drive 2 to 3 standing / m2 New Addington 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 > 5 standing / m2 Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

But further investment on the rail network above National Rail crowding 2041 with investment Railplanthat already committed Scenario WE054A40G_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) will be required to supportTowards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill higher levels of growth Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont New Barnet Once higher levelsBushey of growth Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park to 2041 are taken into account, Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood Carpenders Park Enfield Lock High crowding is expected to worsen Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford Park along the EdgwareHatch branch End of the Southbury Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford Northern line, as well as from Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End Headstone Lane New Southgate Edmonton Green Seven Sisters on the Victoria line. Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park Angel Road CrowdingHarrow will &also Wealdstone become much Silver Street Brentwood worse on the Great Northern Line. Alexandra Palace Wood Street These estimates doKenton not include White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards the significantHarrow- potential levels of Bruce Grove Southend and on-the-Hill Hendon Shoeburyness growth which could be unlocked by Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park Crossrail 2 in the Upper Lea Valley. Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill South Kenton Cricklewood Green Lanes Central Sudbury Hill Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road Sudbury & Wembley Central Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton Stonebridge Park & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West Broadway Main White City Bush Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Court Road Thameslink Acton < 1 standing / m Central 1 to 2 standing / m2 Custom House Kensington Shadwell for ExCel 2 South (Olympia) 2 to 3 standing / m Blackfriars Cannon Acton 2 3 to 4 standing / m Charing Street Limehouse Cross 4 to 5 standing / m2 Fenchurch Street Wapping > 5 standing /Victoria m2 River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail Change in UG and Canary Wharf Change in National Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLR crowding 2041Waterloo crowding 2041 DLR crowding Rail crowding Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches 2 < 1 standing / m Belmont Purley Towards Guildford Sanderstead 1 to 2 standing / m2 Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham Chipstead Riddlesdown 2 to 3 standing / m2 Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South Kingswood Kenley 3 to 4 standing / m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Whyteleafe South 4 to 5 standing / m2 Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Towards 2 > 5 standing / m Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Railplan ScenarioBut further investment WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio vs WE054A40G_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) Change in Underground and DLR crowding 2011 – 2041 with investment as per 2015 business plan Chesham on the rail network above Amersham that already committedWatford Junction Epping Watford Theydon Bois will be required to support Cockfosters Chalfont High Barnet & Latimer Oakwood Debden Croxley higher levels of growth Southgate Loughton Chorleywood Once higher levels of growth Totteridge & Whetstone Rickmansworth Moor Park Arnos Grove to 2041 are taken into account, Woodside Park Edgware Buckhurst Hill Northwoodcrowding is expected to worsen West Ruislip Stanmore West Finchley Bounds Green Hillingdon Northwood alongHills the Edgware branch of the Roding Valley Chigwell Canons Park Mill Hill East Uxbridge Ickenham Ruislip Northern line, as wellHarrow as & from Wealdstone Burnt Oak Ruislip Pinner Queensbury Grange Hill Manor Seven Sisters on the Victoria line. Finchley Central Wood Green Woodford North Harrow Kenton Colindale EastcoteCrowding will also become much Kingsbury Hainault Hendon Central Ruislip East Finchley Turnpike Lane Gardens worseRayners Laneon the GreatHarrow Northern- Northwick Line. Preston on-the-Hill Park Road Wembley Park Brent Cross Fairlop These estimates do not include Highgate Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Woodford South Ruislip West Harrow Neasden Golders Green Sisters Hale Road Barkingside Walthamstow South Harrowthe significant potential levels of Archway South Kenton Dollis Hill Central Hampstead Willesden Newbury Park growth which could be unlocked by Manor Snaresbrook North Wembley Green Crossrail 2 in the Upper Lea Valley. House Redbridge Upminster Kilburn Northolt Sudbury Hill Wembley Central Wanstead Gants Hill Upminster Tufnell Park Bridge Stonebridge Park Leytonstone Hornchurch Sudbury Town Harlesden Kentish Town Belsize Park Arsenal Finsbury Park Elm Park Willesden Junction Stratford Greenford Chalk Farm Holloway Road International Leyton Alperton Dagenham East Finchley Road Camden Town Kensal Green Caledonian Road Dagenham Perivale Queen's Park Swiss Cottage Mornington Heathway Crescent Stratford Becontree Kilburn Park Highbury & St. John's Wood King’s Islington Maida Vale Cross Warwick Edgware Great Stratford High Street Avenue Road Marylebone Baker Street Portland Euston Hanger Lane Street Upney Royal Oak Angel Pudding Farringdon Abbey Road Edgware Mill Lane Warren Euston Old Street Bethnal Road Park Royal Street Square Barbican Green Mile End Bow Bromley Upton Paddington Liverpool West Regent's Road by-Bow Plaistow Park East Ham Westbourne Park Russell Street Acton Park North Ealing Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Goodge Square Barking Latimer Bond Street Bow Oxford Road Lancaster Street Chancery Moorgate Churc Ealing North Shepherd's Notting Circus Holborn Stepney Green West Ham Acton White City Gate Lane h Broadway Bush Hill Gate Devons Road St. Paul's Aldgate East Marble Tottenham Whitechapel Holland Queensway East Langdon Park Star Lane Acton Wood Park Arch Court Road Covent Bank Lane Garden Aldgate High Street All Saints Kensington Green Park 2 Mansion Canning Royal Custom House Shepherd's Reduction of > 1 standing / m Leicester House Ealing Shadwell Westferry Blackwall Town Victoria for ExCel Bush Market Hyde Park Corner 2 Square Common Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standing / mPiccadilly Blackfriars Poplar Prince Regent Circus Cannon Monument Tower Tower East Goldhawk Road Knightsbridge 2 Charing Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Street Hill Gateway Limehouse India Royal Albert Acton Earl's Cross South Barons Gloucester 2 Temple West Beckton Park Town Hammersmith +/- 0.2 standing / mSloane West Ealing Court Court Road Silvertown Square Victoria 2 Westminster India Cyprus Boston Manor Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Quay Northfields River Thames Pontoon Dock Gallions Reach Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West South St. James's 2 Embankment Osterley Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Park Green Brook Park Kensington Kensington Park Beckton 2 North Hounslow Increase of > 1 standing / m Bermondsey Canary Wharf Greenwich East West London City Airport Brompton Pimlico Hounslow Southwark London Bridge Canada Water Heron Quays Waterloo Central South Quay Gunnersbury Fulham and Hounslow Waterloo Crossharbour King George V Broadway Underground and NationalLambeth Rail Change in UG and Change in National West East Mudchute North Hatton Island Gardens Cross DLR crowding 2041 crowding 2041Borough DLR crowding Rail crowding Vauxhall Elephant & Castle Cutty Sark for Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Maritime Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Greenwich Greenwich Woolwich River Thames Arsenal Deptford Bridge Kennington Oval Elverson Road Heathrow Heathrow Stockwell Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond 5 East Putney Clapham North Lewisham Southfields Clapham Common Wimbledon Park Clapham South Brixton Wimbledon Balham

Tooting Dundonald Bec Road Tooting Broadway

Merton Park Colliers Wood

South Wimbledon Birkbeck

Morden Road Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Morden Phipps Bridge Road Road Junction Harrington Belgrave Walk Road

But further investment on the rail network above Change in National Rail crowding 2011 – 2041 with investment Railplan Scenariothat already WE001A08A_SQM_Ratio committed vs WE054A40G_SQM_Ratio, AM Peak Hour (54% of peak period) will be required to supportTowards Towards Towards Towards Towards Towards Hemel Hempstead Luton Airport Parkway Welwyn Garden City Hertford North Hertford East and Stansted Airport Broxbourne Aylesbury Amersham Watford Junction Elstree & Borehamwood Hadley Wood Crews Hill higher levels of growth Gordon Hill Cheshunt Theobalds Enfield Chase Grove Chalfont New Barnet Once higher levelsBushey of growth Waltham Cross & Latimer Grange Park to 2041 are taken into account, Enfield Turkey Town Street Towards Chorleywood Carpenders Park Enfield Lock High crowding is expected to worsen Oakleigh Park Winchmore Hill Towards Bush Hill Wycombe Rickmansworth Chelmsford Park along the EdgwareHatch branch End of the Southbury Palmers Green Brimsdown Chingford Northern line, as well as from Mill Hill Broadway West Ruislip Ponders End Headstone Lane New Southgate Edmonton Green Seven Sisters on the Victoria line. Shenfield Bowes Park Highams Park Angel Road CrowdingHarrow will &also Wealdstone become much Silver Street Brentwood worse on the Great Northern Line. Alexandra Palace Wood Street These estimates doKenton not include White Hart Lane Northumberland Park Hornsey Harold Wood Towards the significantHarrow- potential levels of Bruce Grove Southend and on-the-Hill Hendon Shoeburyness growth which could be unlocked by Harringay Seven Tottenham Blackhorse South Ruislip Sisters Hale Road Gidea Park Crossrail 2 in the Upper Lea Valley. Harringay Walthamstow Crouch Hill South Kenton Cricklewood Green Lanes Central Sudbury Hill Wembley Upper South Romford Emerson Harrow North Wembley Hampstead Heath Upminster Stadium Holloway Tottenham Park Northolt Walthamstow Gospel Oak St. James Park Queen's Road Sudbury & Wembley Central Street Harrow Road Finchley Road Kentish Town Stoke Chadwell Newington Leyton Stonebridge Park & Frognal West Midland Heath Road Harlesden Kentish Town Clapton Lea Bridge Ockendon Brondesbury West Hampstead Finsbury Park Rectory Willesden Junction Park Road Leytonstone Greenford Goodmayes Kensal Rise Brondesbury High Road Camden Hackney Kensal Green Seven Kings Road Drayton Dalston Downs Hackney Hackney Chafford Canonbury Wanstead Park Hundred Queen's Park Park Kingsland Central Wick Ilford Manor Park Homerton Stratford St. Pancras Caledonian London Fields Road & Highbury & Dalston Kilburn South Inter- King’s Maryland Forest Barnsbury Islington Junction Cambridge Heath Woodgrange South Greenford High Road Hampstead national Cross Gate Park Towards Haggerston Bethnal Green Southend Marylebone Euston Essex Road Castle Bar Park Dagenham Rainham Purfleet Grays Farringdon Hoxton Dock Old Street Paddington Liverpool Street Drayton Green Shoreditch Barking Bond High Street Moorgate Ealing Acton Shepherd's Street West Ham Towards West Hayes & West White City Broadway Main Bush 2 Slough Drayton Harlington Southall Hanwell Ealing Line Reduction of > 1 standing / m Tottenham City Whitechapel 2 Reduction of 0.5 to 1 standingCourt / Road m Thameslink Acton 2 Central Reduction of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Custom House Kensington +/- 0.2 standing / m2 Shadwell for ExCel South (Olympia) 2 Blackfriars Acton Increase of 0.2 to 0.5 standing / m Cannon Charing Street Limehouse 2 Cross Increase of 0.5 to 1 standing / m Fenchurch Street Increase of > Victoria1 standing / m2 Wapping River Thames

Rotherhithe

West Underground and National Rail Change in UG and Canary Wharf Change in National Brompton London Bridge Canada Water DLR crowding 2041Waterloo crowding 2041 DLR crowding Rail crowding Gunnersbury and Waterloo Kew Surrey Quays Bridge East Imperial Chiswick Wharf Brentford Battersea Vauxhall Park Elephant & Castle Heathrow Westcombe Woolwich Terminals Syon Lane Deptford Park Dockyard Plumstead Kew Gardens South 1,2,3 Belvedere Bermondsey Greenwich Maze Charlton Abbey Barnes Bridge Queenstown Woolwich Isleworth River Thames Hill Arsenal Wood Road (Battersea) New Cross Erith North Camberwell Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Wandsworth Queens Road Peckham Heathrow Heathrow Road St. Johns Slade Green Loughborough Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Nunhead New Cross Gate Ebbsfleet 5 St. Margarets Town Junction Blackheath Kidbrooke Falconwood Bexleyheath Hounslow Brockley Lewisham Eltham Welling Barnehurst Earlsfield Wandsworth Peckham Rye Common Honor Oak Park Towards Twickenham East Dulwich Staines Feltham Brixton Forest Hill Hither Green Wimbledon Balham Ladywell North Dulwich Crofton Park Whitton Haydons Sydenham Albany Road Herne Hill Crayford West Sydenham Lee New Eltham Park Dulwich Hill Catford Catford Bridge Strawberry Mottingham Sidcup Bexley Towards Bellingham Hill Raynes Park Grove Park Dartford and Crystal Towards Tulse Beckenham Hill Gravesend Palace Lower Sydenham Shepperton New Malden Streatham Hill West Elmstead Hill Gipsy Hill Woods Tooting Norwood Sundridge Park Wimbledon Penge East New Beckenham Chase Bromley North Chislehurst Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Kent House Ravensbourne Bickley St. Mary Cray Wick Penge West Birkbeck Towards Streatham Swanley and Motspur Shortlands Bromley Sevenoaks Berrylands Park South Streatham Anerley Petts Common Beckenham Wood Junction Mitcham Norbury Malden Hampton Thames Eastfields Norwood Orpington Surbiton Manor Court Ditton Junction Clock House Thornton Heath Chelsfield South Merton Selhurst Elmers End Knockholt Tolworth Morden South Eden Park Mitcham Junction Worcester St. Helier West Croydon West Wickham Park Towards Sutton Common Hackbridge Hayes Sevenoaks Chessington North West Sutton Stoneleigh Carshalton East Towards Croydon Woking and Waddon Guildford South Croydon Chessington South Wallington Sutton Carshalton Purley Oaks Beeches 2 Reduction of more than 1 person standing per m Belmont Purley Towards2 Reduction of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per mGuildford Sanderstead Ewell West Cheam Woodmansterne Coulsdon Town Reedham 2 Reduction of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m Chipstead Riddlesdown Ewell East Banstead Coulsdon South +/- 0.2 people standing per m2 Kingswood Kenley Increase of between 0.5 and 0.2 people standing per m2 Whyteleafe Tadworth Upper Warlingham Whyteleafe South Increase of between 1 and 0.5 people standing per m2 Epsom Downs Tattenham Corner Caterham Increase of more than 1 person standing per m2 Towards Epsom and Towards Towards East Grinstead Dorking Gatwick Airport and Uckfield Note: NR is Railplan demand, otherwise observed 2011 factored by Railplan growth Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

The number of jobs Change in Access to Jobs within 45 accessible by public Change in access to jobs from highway investment 2011 – 2031 minutes highway travel time from transport will increase, the zone 2011 to 2031 although congestion will N 5 Kms over 750,000 0 1 2 3 Miles reduce access to jobs 500,000 to 750,000 250,000 to 500,000 by car in some areas 50,000 to 250,000 Committed investment in the -50,000 to 50,000 Underground network will result in -250,000 to -500,000 -500,000 to -750,000 increased frequency and capacity below -750,000 that will mean residents of the sub-region will be able to access a greater number of jobs by public transport within a 45 minute travel time. However, due to forecast increases in highway congestion, fewer jobs will be accessible within 45 minutes by car. This means that residents of places which do not have good access to the Underground network, such as the Upper Lea Valley, are at a disadvantage. This is also where deprivation is also greatest within the sub-region. Measures to improve public transport access, such as improvements to National Rail lines and bus priority measures will be required to ensure residents of these areas have the greatest possible range of employment opportunities, and maintain the attractiveness of these areas for future growth.

Highway Public Transport Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

The number of jobs Change in Access to Jobs within accessible by public Change in access to jobs from public transport investment 2011 – 2031 45 minutes public transport travel transport will increase, time from the zone 2011 to 2031 although congestion will N 5 Kms over 750,000 0 1 2 3 Miles reduce access to jobs 500,000 to 750,000 250,000 to 500,000 by car in some areas 50,000 to 250,000 Committed investment in the -50,000 to 50,000 Underground network will result in -250,000 to -500,000 -500,000 to -750,000 increased frequency and capacity below -750,000 that will mean residents of the sub-region will be able to access a greater number of jobs by public transport within a 45 minute travel time. However, due to forecast increases in highway congestion, fewer jobs will be accessible within 45 minutes by car. This means that residents of places which do not have good access to the Underground network, such as the Upper Lea Valley, are at a disadvantage. This is also where deprivation is also greatest within the sub-region. Measures to improve public transport access, such as improvements to National Rail lines and bus priority measures will be required to ensure residents of these areas have the greatest possible range of employment opportunities, and maintain the attractiveness of these areas for future growth.

Highway Public Transport Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update Future Growth

Air quality is expected NO2 annual mean to improve with Air Quality 2025 concentrations (µg/m3) technology, but more 97 43 28 will need to be done N 5 Kms 0 1 2 3 Miles 76 40 25 Although harmful emissions from 73 37 22 vehicles are expected to reduce as 58 34 19 55 31 16 vehicles become more efficient, 13 growth and development in the sub- region presents challenges in terms Source: Interim update for the London Atmospheric Emissions of balancing air quality management Inventory 2010 with economic and transport objectives. Measures to restrict harmful emissions from motorised vehicles, particularly within along the major road corridors of the North Circular, A10 and A5, will be required to improve air quality and improve the health of Londoners. Story of Growth Sub-Regional Transport Plan for North London - 2016 update

North London Sub-Regional Transport Plan Story of Growth - 2016 Update

Contact details Policy & Strategy Unit Transport for London 10th Floor, Windsor House, 42-50 Victoria Street, London, SW1H 0TL email: [email protected] www.tfl.gov.uk