Israel: Demography and Density 2007-2020 Evgenia Bystrov gy Arnon Soffer Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy University of Haifa Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy University of Haifa Israel: Demography and Density 2007-2020 Evgenia Bystrov Arnon Soffer May 2008 Reuven Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy, University of Haifa This Chair is concerned with issues of national security that contain a spatial expression, such as natural resources and their distribution, population spread, physical infrastructure, and environmental elements. The Chair publishes position papers, offers consultation to senior decision makers, initiates research projects, holds study days and conferences, publishes books and scholarly works, and assists research students in the fields listed above. It likewise engages in the proliferation of these matters at high schools and academic institutions. The Late Reuven Chaikin (1918-2004) Reuven Chaikin was born in Tel Aviv, and became a senior partner in the Somekh-Chaikin accounting firm. He evinced deep interest in geography and geopolitics, and offered great assistance in these areas at the University of Haifa. May his memory be for a blessing. Prof. Arnon Soffer Holder of the Reuven Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy Translated by: Murray Rosovsky Cartography Editor: Noga Yoselevich Printed by: a.a.a. print ltd. http://geo.haifa.ac.il/~ch-strategy © All rights reserved to the Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy, University of Haifa. ISBN 965-7437-06-3 Printed in Israel in May 2008 Preface to the 2007 Edition Since the publication of the last edition of Israel, Demography 2006-2020 in Light of the Process of Disengagement (Soffer and Bystrov 2006) the document Tel Aviv State – A Threat to Israel (Soffer and Bystrov 2005) has appeared. Its essence is the doomsday process of concentration of the entire Jewish population of Israel into the Dan bloc. Meanwhile, five printings have appeared in Hebrew and English of the demographic account, and demand is only increasing. In public declarations at least, Israeli leaders (prime ministers, ministers, directors- general, mayors) and many others have applauded our conclusions and concur with the need to halt the condensing into 'Tel Aviv state' lest Jewish Israel be swallowed up. The present updated study reviews recent developments in demography, and mainly warns that Israel is turning into the most densely populated state in the Western world; this will intensify the violence, the feeling of strangulation, the flight of young people from Israel, and its descent to the level of a third-world country. Evgenia Bystrov wrote about this in her study Israel between the Developed and the Developing World, likewise published by the Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy (Bystrov 2007). This time too we return to what seems to us solutions that may still be workable in a democratic regime so as to change the disastrous direction in which Israel is heading. But we believe ever less that with the present form of government that has developed in Israel ways can be found to apply what is proposed. This is a grim and sad conclusion, and we counsel the responsible reader to weigh matters up with due consideration. Israel today reminds us of the story of the Titanic: the vessel sailed into a huge large iceberg but in its ballrooms the party went one, with refusal of the dancers to listen to the warnings. We have decided to try to change the Titanic's course. We have no passport except the Israeli, but we have discovered that foreign passports are to be found in abundance in the pockets of some of the dancers, particularly those issued by Western countries (the European Union and the USA). Do their possessors plan to leap into the lifeboats reserved exclusively for the nobility? We are not content with writing and a warning; we race from government department to government department, and make it quite clear that the data in the document entail a threat, and something may still be done. We also turn to you, Israeli citizens who care: read these things in a responsible fashion, and help us steer the ship of all of us to a safe haven! Arnon Soffer and Evgenia Bystrov, October 2007 Preface to the 2004 Edition Disengagement: To protect Israel as an island of Western-ness in a mad region The booklet Israel – Demography 2003-2020: Dangers and Opportunities, published by the Chaikin Chair in Geogstrategy, sold out after two printings in Hebrew and English. The English version was distributed among the board of the Jewish Agency, the board of the world Keren Hayesod [Foundation Fund], the Anti-Defamation League, and leaders of the Jewish communities in France and in various cities in the USA: Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, New York, and Los Angeles, and in southern California. Demand for the booklet is never ending – which goes to show that the issue of demography and its implications for the future of Israel are the focus of public interest in this country and among world Jewry. This may stem from the understanding of many – Jews and non-Jews – that Israel must remain an isolated island of Western-ness in this tempestuous and crazy part of the world. The present book is intended mostly for two population groups that continue to deny the demographic danger, and on that account also deny the necessity of disengagement – the only course that will allow the state of Israel to continue to preserve its Jewish, Zionist, and democratic nature. These two groups – the extremist right and the extremist left – are augmented by a large group of Israel-haters who are bitterly opposed to disengagement, among them Palestinians, the Arab states, Muslim Europe, the anti-Semitic institution of the United Nations, and the judges of The Hague who present themselves as seekers after justice. Disengagement has set out on the road, and there is no going back. Some cosmetic changes may perhaps be made in it at the request of the Israeli Supreme Court. This institution consists of judges who are not geographers or versed in security matters, and they would be better off refusing to discuss matters they do not understand or are not judgeable. In the same breath we say to people of the security system that in their plotting the lie of the disengagement line it would be most useful if they considered not only the day after, but also the processes that will unfold in the area in twenty years and more. This small book attempts to present different aspects of the day after the disengagement, naturally with emphasis on the demographic changes it will bring about, all of which are positive. Arnon Soffer and Evgenia Bystrov, September 2004 Preface to the 2003 Edition This small book was first published in 2001, and tens of thousands of copies were distributed to the wider public, senior economists, senior people in Israel's security systems, and to politicians, prime ministers past and present, ministers, Members of Knesset, and directors-general in the government. The latter persons also held a penetrating discussion with the author. The book appeared in English translation, of which several thousand copies were distributed among the Jewish community and decision makers in the USA; the author met personalities in the American administration and also US ambassadors in Israel on this subject. The responses surpassed all expectations. There was almost national consensus in Israel regarding the data and regarding the recommendation on unilateral separation from the Palestinians. Furthermore, after unnecessary postponements, which also cost much blood, the government of Israel adopted the document. Meanwhile several civil movements arose to struggle against the construction of the separation fence, and if that job is not done resolutely and quickly, it is not impossible that a political movement will sprout from these movements also (the author is not active in any organization or movement). Since the interest shown by the public in the subject shows no sign of abating, and the problems under discussion in the document have only grown worse – all against the background setting of paralysis in the legislative and executive branches, we decided to publish a new and updated edition, intended for the Zionist and concerned community among the citizens of Israel. Arnon Soffer, March 2003 Preface to the 2001 Edition In 1988 I published a document entitled Geography and Demography: Is This the End of the Zionist Dream? (published by Gestelit, Haifa). In it I analysed the significance of the visual geographic development in Palestine, and I warned of the danger of the disappearance of the Jewish Zionist state. In retrospect it emerges that the document I published contained two errors: I did not foresee the immigration of the Jews of the Soviet Union, and I did envisage a decline in the natural increase of the Arabs of Israel. The danger that I warned against then is as real as ever, and has even become more acute. Thirteen years after the appearance of the document, and despite the immigration to Israel of about a million Jews, not only has the demographic threat not diminished or disappeared, it has begun to materialize before our eyes, more rapidly than expected, and already today it assails many domains of our lives. And still the Israeli government displays total inertia in the presence of these dangers. Recent governments of Israel, and the Knesset as a whole, have not found time to take decisions on the national level, but are instead occupied with media gimmickry on a level of activity suitable for a Jewish community in a small town in Poland or Morocco. Considering this helplessness, and to avert the evil decree, a broad-based civil movement, conscious of the facts and the dangers, may perhaps be able to put pressure on the government to initiate and take hard national decisions in the framework of national unity.