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The Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza Strip – Opportunities and Constraints

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The Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza Strip – Opportunities and Constraints THE FLOERSHEIMER INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES Injustice and Folly On the Proposals to Cede Arab Localities from Israel to Palestine Shaul Arieli, Doubi Schwartz With the participation of Hadas Tagari July, 2006 1 1 Principal Editor: Shunamith Carin Text Editor: Liora Hertzig Translator: Dan Kayros English Editors: Kalela Lancaster and Avivit Hai Printed by Ach va Press Ltd. Publication No. 3/48e ISSN 0792-6251 © 2006 The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies Ltd. Diskin St. 9a, Jerusalem 96440 tel: +972-2-5666243; fax: +972-2-5666252 office@fips.org.il www.fips.org.il 2 2 About the Authors Shaul Arieli is a Reserve Colonel who served as Commander of the Gaza Brigade and as Head of Prime Minister Ehud Barak's Negotiation Administration. He holds a Masters degree in Management Sciences from Tel Aviv University. Today, he is a senior researcher in the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF). He was among the initiators of the Geneva Initiative and is currently a member of the Board of the Council for Peace and Security. Doubi Schwartz is a Project Director at the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF), and has a BA in Political Science from Tel Aviv University and an MA in International Relations from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Hadas Tagari is a Lawyer and an expert in human rights and social change, holding an LLM in International Human Rights Law from American University Washington College of Law. About the Study Proposals for ceding Arab localities from Israeli to Palestinian sovereignty, in the framework of a permanent status agreement, have recently taken root in Israeli public debate. The proposals are presented as an "exchange of populated territory". Since the events of October 2000, which resulted in the deaths of thirteen Israeli Arabs, there are indications of support for such proposals within the Jewish public, from all walks of the political spectrum. The Arab public and its leaders, as well as some Jewish figures, vehemently oppose proposals involving revocation of the citizenship of tens of thousands of Arabs against their will. This study examines and maps the Jewish voices in favor of the basic idea, the different plans for implemen- tation according to various proposals, and the Arab discourse opposing the idea. The study further examines aspects of Israeli and International Law which are relevant to the possibility of ceding Arab localities from Israeli to Palestinian sovereignty, as well as analysing the demographic aspect of these proposals. The findings of the study serve to emphasize the infeasibility and the great danger involved in these proposals. This study was prepared by the Economic Cooperation Foundation, and was sup- ported by the Kahanoff Foundation. The data and maps were collected in the frame- work of a project supported by the Ford Foundation. In addition, we would like to thank Yossi Chen, a partner in the development of the strategic thinking, Professor Amiram Gonen and Professor Shlomo Hasson of the Floersheimer Institute, as well as the many people who read and commented upon the study. 3 3 About the Institute The awareness to the importance of policy research has been growing in Israel in recent years. The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies is the initiative of Dr. Steven H. Floersheimer to establish an institute focusing on long term policy issues. The institute’s objective is to research fundamental trends which future policy makers will face, to analyze their long term ramifications, and to recommend policy and strategy options to policy makers. The fields of research at the Institute are: Relations between Religion Society and State in Israel; Jews and Arabs in Israel; Israel and its Arab Neighbors; Society, Space and Governance in Israel. The members of the Board of Directors are Dr. Stephen H. Floersheimer (chair- man), Mr. I. Amihud Ben-Porath (vice chairman), Mr. David Brodet, formerly Director-General of the Ministry of Finance, and Mr. Hirsch Goodman, Senior Research Fellow at the Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University. The director of the Institute is Professor Amiram Gonen of the Geography Department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The deputy director of the Institute is Pro- fessor Shlomo Hasson of the Geography Department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Additional English Publications on Jews and Arab in Israel And Israel and its Arab Neighbors Planning and Development of Localities in the Emerging Palestinian En- tity, Rassem Khamaisi, 1994. New Palestinian Towns Alongside Existing Towns, Rassem Khamaisi, 1996. The Separation Barrier and Jerusalem’s Arab Neighborhoods: Integrate or Separate but Don’t Postpone, Yaakov Garb, 2004. Coordinated Disengagement: Opportunities and Barriers, Yohanan Tzoref, 2005. Urban Trauma in Jerusalem: Impacts and Possibilities for Recovery, Yaacov Garb and Hank Savitch, 2005. Non-State Peace Spoilers and the Middle East Peace Efforts, Avraham Sela, 2005. 4 4 Table of Contents Abstract 7 Preface 12 1 Historical Background 15 Partition – The Two State Solution 15 The War of Independence 17 The Armistice Agreements at Rhodes 19 The Situation of the Arab Minority in the State of Israel 21 The Treatment of the Arab Minority in Israel 25 Background 25 Positions Prior to the Establishment of the State 26 Military Rule (1948-1966) 28 After the Six Day War 29 2 The Jewish Discourse 32 Ensuring a Jewish Majority through Negotiated Agreement 35 The Intermediate Approach – Vagueness Regarding Implementation 40 Coercive Cession 46 Conclusion 50 3 The Arab Discourse 52 The Debate in the Arab Public in Israel 52 The Interests and Positions of the Palestinian Side 59 5 5 4 The Legal Aspect 62 Border Alterations 62 The Status of the Residents 64 The Status of the Residents in Israeli Law 65 The Status of the Residents in International Law 70 Historical Precedents Around the World 76 5 The Demographic and Geographic Aspect 79 The Nationwide Demographic Aspect 79 The Regional Demographic and Geographic Aspect 82 Conclusions and Recommendations 87 Sources 96 6 6 Abstract In recent years the focus of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been the future control of the territories of the West Bank. Will Israeli rule continue, or will a viable Palestinian State be established alongside the State of Israel, in a way that ensures both states' existence, in peace and security? The major subjects on the negotiation agenda are borders, refugees and East Jerusalem. The Arab citizens of Israel,1 who make up one fifth of its citizens and approximately one fifth of the Palestinian people from the Jordan to the Mediterranean, were not listed among Israel-PLO permanent status issues, and were not discussed. The idea of (unpopulated) territorial exchange between Israel and the Palestini- ans in the framework of the permanent status agreement, based on the precedent in the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan in 1994, was expressly mentioned in President Clinton's December 2000 proposal. The increase in tension and alienation between the Jewish and Arab populations, especially after the events of October 2000, reinforced the call within the Jewish population in Israel for the transfer of territory inhabited by its Arab citizens to a Palestinian state, when established. Talk of "demographic balance", which became the new strategy of the Zionist left's public struggle to end the occupation and achieve a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians, expanded into the borders of the State of Israel. These voices are heard not only from the right wing of the political map 1 This study will usually use the term "Arab Israeli citizens" or "the Arabs in Israel". The issue of the identity and self-definition of the Arab citizens of Israel, who are members of the Palestinian People, is complex, and has undergone many changes. Many today define themselves as “Palestinian citizens of Israel.” 7 7 in Israel, such as Avigdor Lieberman, but also from circles far from it, such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak. To date, no detailed program defining territory and population data has been presented, nor has any substantive dis- cussion taken place regarding the feasibility, interests, and implications stem- ming from this idea. The goal behind the idea of transferring Arab inhabited territories to the Pales- tinian state is primarily the reinforcement of the Jewish majority in the State of Israel, and some believe that such a transfer will also allow the State of Israel to retain a number of settlement blocs. The logic of the idea is identical to the 1947 partition principles – splitting the country into two nation states according to demographic and settlement layout, with the "green line" serving as a line of reference. However, the implications of implementing such an idea are the revocation of the Israeli citizenship of tens of thousands of citizens, against their will, due to their identity as members of the Arab-Palestinian people; turning them into citizens of another state; detaching them from the lives they built in the State of Israel; and transferring them to a new-old lifestyle. For some of its supporters, this idea is presumed to "kill two birds with one stone" – annexation of settlement blocs and reinforcement of the Jewish majority; for others, it is merely self defense on the part of the Jewish majority, against efforts by a part of the Arab minority to annul the Jewish character of the State of Israel. The feasibility of this idea depends primarily upon Palestinian consent. The determination of the border between the states and the transfer of population cannot be undertaken unilaterally, rather only as a part of a bilateral agreement. Under the present circumstances, the idea has no Palestinian partner. The Pales- tinian side, represented by the PLO, has no interest in implementing such a plan. Nor does it appear that Palestinian leaders would agree to a step opposed by Arab citizens who are to become citizens of their state, especially when implementation of the plan is part of a territorial exchange which would leave settlement blocs deep within the Palestinian state.
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