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Przegląd Geopolityczny PRZEGLĄD GEOPOLITYCZNY (GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW ) Przegląd Geopolityczny (Geopolitical Review) Lato (summer) 2018 tom (volume): 25 KWARTALNIK RECENZOWANY PEER-REVIEWED QUARTERLY JOURNAL (DOUBLE-BLIND REVIEW PROCESS) DOFINANSOWANO ZE ŚRODKÓW MINISTRA KULTURY I DZIEDZICTWA NARODOWEGO Publikacja jest udostępniona na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa-Użycie niekomercyjne-Bez utworów zależnych 3.0 Polska. Pewne prawa zastrzeżone na rzecz autorów. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pl/. Wszystkie tomy czasopisma w wersji elektronicznej są w otwartym dostępie na stronie internetowej kwartalnika. Wersją pierwotną „Przeglądu Geopolitycznego” jest wersja elektroniczna. Czasopismo ukazuje się w formie elektronicznej i drukowanej pod patronatem Polskiego Towarzystwa Geopolitycznego (www.ptg.edu.pl). Wydawca, adres redakcji (Publisher, editorial adress) P O L S K I E T O W A R Z Y S T W O G E O P O L I T Y C Z N E ul. mjr Łupaszki 7/26 30-198 Kraków http://www.ptg.edu.pl E-mail: [email protected] PRZEGLĄD GEOPOLITYCZNY (GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW) tom 25: 2018 (vol. 25: 2018) ISSN: 2080-8836 (print) 2392-067X (online) MIĘDZYNARODOWA RADA NAUKOWA (INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC BOARD) Gideon Biger (Uniwersytet w Tel Awiwie, Izrael), Georges G. Cravins (Uniwersytet Wisconsin-La Crosse, USA), Bretislav Dancak (Uniwersytet im. Masaryka w Brnie, Czechy), Piotr Eberhardt (Polska Akademia Nauk) – przewodniczący Rady, Vit Hloušek (Uniwersytet im. Masaryka w Brnie, Czechy), Robert Ištok (Uniwersytet Preszowski, Słowacja), Anatol Jakobson (Uniwersytet Kolei Państwowych w Irkucku, Rosja), Rustis Kamuntavičius (Uniwersytet im. Wlk. Ks. Witolda w Kownie, Litwa), Vakhtang Maisaia (Międzynarodowy Uniwersytet Kaukaski w Tbilisi, Gruzja), Kaloyan Metodyev (Uniwersytet Południowo-Zachodni w Błagojewgradzie, Bułgaria), John S. Micgiel (Uniwersytet Columbia w Nowym Jorku, USA), Gayane Novikova (Centrum Analiz Strategicznych Spectrum w Erewaniu, Armenia), Florent Parmentier (Instytut Nauk Politycznych Sciences-Po w Paryżu, Francja), Andrzej Pukszto (Uniwersytet im. Wlk. Ks. Witolda w Kownie, Litwa), Reinhard Rode (Uniwersytet im. Marcina Lutra w Halle- Wittenberg, Niemcy), Shanmugam Pillai Subbiah (Uniwersytet w Madrasie, Indie), Antonio Violante (Uniwersytet Mediolański, Włochy), Alessandro Vitale (Uniwersytet Mediolański, Włochy), Hong-key Yoon (Uniwersytet w Auckland, Nowa Zelandia), Jernej Zupančič (Uniwersytet Lublański, Słowenia). RADA REDAKCYJNA (SCIENTIFIC EDITORIAL COUNCIL) Selim Chazbijewicz (UWM, Olsztyn), Marcin Chełminiak (UWM, Olsztyn), Piotr Eberhardt (PAN, Warszawa), Adam Gwiazda (UKW, Bydgoszcz), Marek Ilnicki (AH, Pułtusk), Paweł Leszczyński (AJP, Gorzów Wielkopolski), Jarosław Macała (UZ, Zielona Góra), Jakub Potulski (UG, Gdańsk), Julian Skrzyp (ASzW, Warszawa), Paweł Soroka (UJK, Kielce), Mirosław Sułek (UW, Warszawa) – przewodniczący rady, Roman Szul (UW, Warszawa), Bogusław Ślusarczyk (URz, Rzeszów), Olga Wasiuta (UP, Kraków), Sergiusz Wasiuta (UP, Kraków), Jan Wendt (UG, Gdańsk), Andrzej Zapałowski (URz, Rzeszów). REDAKCJA (EDITORIAL BOARD) Redaktor naczelny (Editor-in-Chief): Witold J. Wilczyński Zastępcy redaktora naczelnego (Vice-editors): Stefan Bielański, Sergiusz Wasiuta Sekretarz redakcji (Assistant to the Editor): Piotr Nawała Redaktorzy tematyczni (Thematic Editors): Adam Myślicki, Marcin Semczuk, Leszek Trojan, Piotr L. Wilczyński, Mateusz Łakomy, Mirosław Sułek, Sebastian Szamol, Justyna Trubalska, Sergiusz Wasiuta, Witold J. Wilczyński, Łukasz Wojciechowski Redaktor statystyczny (Statistics Editor): Piotr L. Wilczyński Redaktorzy językowi (Linguistic Editors): Renata Gasek, Bethuel Matsili, Gregory Mikula Projekt okładki (Cover Design): Piotr L. Wilczyński Rycina na okładce: Fragment: Mappa pocztowa Królestwa Polskiego – Gubernia Suwalska, 1911 r. Redakcja techniczna, korekta i adjustacja (DTP): Oddział terenowy PTG w Krakowie Strona internetowa, kontakt z redakcją (Website, contact): www.przeglad.org, e-mail: [email protected] SPIS TREŚCI ARTYKUŁY Mirosław Sułek Geopolityczna transformacja świata po zimnej wojnie ..............................9 Jakub Potulski „Idea zachodnia” i geograficzny obraz „Polski piastowskiej” w polskiej polityce po II wojnie światowej ................................................................27 Monika Noviello Region w geografii i polityce włoskiej ......................................................46 Piotr L. Wilczyński Produkcja samolotów, śmigłowców i dronów bojowych w Europie .......65 Marek Górka Wybrane aspekty polityki cyberbezpieczeństwa Unii Europejskiej na przykładzie Europolu ..............................................................................86 Jan Kowalczewski Znaczenie polityczno-militarne Przesmyku Suwalskiego .....................104 Adam Gwiazda Transformacja Arabii Saudyjskiej w cieniu walki o tron .........................116 Przemysław Mazur, Martyna Targ Geopolityczne i ekonomiczne korzyści zaangażowania się Rosji w konflikt syryjski .......................................................................................124 Krzysztof Danielewicz Konflikt zbrojny w Mali 2012-2013 (część II) ..........................................133 Kinga Kiepura Wojna z kartelami narkotykowymi w Meksyku ......................................151 ANALIZY I MATERIAŁY Gaweł Strządała, Biała i kolorowa rewolucja w twórczości Oswalda Spenglera .................................................................................................162 - 5 - Witold J. Wilczyński, Odzyskanie niepodległości przez Polskę w perspektywie geopolitycznej. Część I: Ofiara Kresów na ołtarzu niepodległości ojczyzny (dokończenie z nr 24) ......................................172 RECENZJE Bogdan Grenda, Radosław Bielawski, Rozwój lotniczych środków rażenia, Wyd. Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa 2017 – R. Kopeć .....................185 Rafał Kopeć, Przemysław Mazur, Odstraszanie militarne w XXI wieku. Polska – NATO – Rosja, Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie, Kraków 2017 – M. Papla ......................................190 * * * Noty o autorach .........................................................................................195 Zasady publikowania ..................................................................................197 - 6 - TABLE OF CONTENTS ARTICLES Mirosław Sułek Geopolitical transformation of the World after the Cold War ....................9 Jakub Potulski The Western idea and the geographical image of „the Piast Poland” in Polish politics after the Second World War ..............................................27 Monika Noviello Concept of region in Italian geography and politics ................................46 Piotr L. Wilczyński Production of military aircraft in Europe .................................................65 Marek Górka Selected aspects of European Union cyber security policy on the example of Europol .................................................................................................86 Jan Kowalczewski Political and military importance of the Suwalki Gap ............................104 Adam Gwiazda Transformation of Saudi Arabia in the shade of the struggle for the throne ..................................................................................................................116 Przemysław Mazur, Martyna Targ Geopolitical and economic benefits of Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict .....................................................................................................124 Krzysztof Danielewicz Armed conflict in Mali in 2012-2013 (final part) ......................................133 Kinga Kiepura War against drug cartels in Mexico..........................................................151 ANALYSIS & SOURCES Gaweł Strządała, The white and colorful revolutions in works of Oswald Splengler ..................................................................................................162 - 7 - Witold J. Wilczyński, Polish regaining independence in a geopolitical perspective. Part I: Borderlands sacrifice on an altar of fatherland’s independence (continuation from vol. 24) ..............................................172 REVIEWS Bogdan Grenda, Radosław Bielawski, Rozwój lotniczych środków rażenia, Wyd. Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa 2017 – R. Kopeć .....................185 Rafał Kopeć, Przemysław Mazur, Odstraszanie militarne w XXI wieku. Polska – NATO – Rosja, Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie, Kraków 2017 – M. Papla ......................................190 * * * Contributors ..............................................................................................195 Guidelines for Authors ...............................................................................197 - 8 - Sułek, M., 2018, Geopolityczna transformacja świata po zimnej wojnie, Przegląd Geopolityczny, 25, s. 9-26. Mirosław SUŁEK Uniwersytet Warszawski GEOPOLITYCZNA TRANSFORMACJA ŚWIATA PO ZIMNEJ WOJNIE Abstrakt: Przedmiotem artykułu są zmiany w globalnym układzie sił w okresie po zimnej wojnie. Na początku zaprezentowano tło demograficzne w długim horyzoncie czasowym (lata 1800 – 2050). Następnie, stosując model formalny oraz – pomocniczo – oceny eksperckie, przedstawiono zmiany w geopolitycznej strukturze świata. Zdaniem autora, ich głębokość usprawiedliwia zastosowany termin „geopolityczna transformacja”. Artykuł zawiera też jednowariantową prognozę kształtowania się globalnego układu sił w perspektywie 2050 roku. Wyniki badań pokazały, że do
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