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For the first time in the last several years, the global economy is showing signs of recovery. The Forum will discuss how to consolidate the emerging trends and assess the risks and challenges related to the introduction of new technologies. The sweeping changes taking place today require effective measures by the international community to enhance the international governance architecture in order to take coordinated steps to ensure that all population groups benefit from the fruits of globalization and thereby guarantee sustainable and balanced development. Over these years, the Forum has gained substantial authority as a recognized global discussion platform open for direct and engaged dialogue on the relevant issues we face today. This June, heads of state and government, prominent public and political figures, and business and expert community representatives from Russia and many other countries will once again gather in St. Petersburg. I am confident that the initiatives and recommendations the Forum produces will contribute to developing common, consolidated approaches, and the contracts and agreements executed on the Forum’s sidelines will give impetus to international cooperation and help to launch and implement new, mutually advantageous projects. I wish you productive and successful work. Vladimir Putin TO PARTICIPANTS AND GUESTS OF THE ST. PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM DEAR FRIENDS, It is my pleasure to welcome all of our guests to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. As always, participants can look forward to a rich and varied business programme. Discussion will focus on the current status of the international economic system and prospects for its sustainable development, the search for the best paths to solving pressing problems, and how to make use of emerging opportunities. This year, special attention will be devoted to the Forum’s key topics, which include analysing fundamental trends in the global economy, issues on Russia’s economic agenda, and problems associated with human capital as a key vector of development. Time will also be taken to consider those advances in science and technology that are having an increasingly noticeable impact on our lives. We are pleased offer our guests a variety of event formats at the Forum, which we hope will assist them in establishing new business contacts and developing existing ones. The Forum’s exciting cultural programme includes theatrical productions, concerts, receptions, charity events, exhibitions, and a wide variety of sightseeing tours, which we trust will be entertaining for all. On behalf of the Organizing Committee, I would like to express my hope that participants and guests of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum are able to engage in constructive and interesting work, accomplish new goals, and have an enjoyable time! Sergei Prikhodko Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Government Chief of Staff, and Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 3 4 IN THIS ISSUE Page 8 WHAT TO EXPECT AT THE FORUM: people, events, discussions Page 28 ELVIRA NABIULLINA, Governor of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation The economy is learning how to get by amidst stable low inflation Page 32 DENIS MANTUROV, Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Import substitution: not a fad, but a conscious policy Page 36 ALEXANDER TKACHEV, Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation What’s the secret to the success of domestic agribusiness Page 40 SVETLANA CHUPSHEVA, Director General of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives Who makes the “investment weather” in the Russian regions Page 44 ANTONIO FALLICO, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Banca Intesa The global economy is struggling to find a new development model Page 48 ALEXANDER BUGAYEV, Author and Director of the Federal Agency for Youth Affairs Who will shape the country’s economy in 20 years Page 52 VLADIMIR SUNGORKIN, Director General of Komsomolskaya Pravda Publishing House Why is it becoming increasingly difficult for the powers that be and entrepreneurs to navigate the information flow Page 61 VIKTOR VEKSELBERG, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Renova Group, President of Skolkovo Innovation Centre Is it possible to survive in the 21st century without getting off the “commodity boat”? Page 66 ALEXANDER SHOKHIN, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs How can we reform oversight activities Page 70 KIRILL DMITRIEV, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund What can sovereign investment funds do for economic growth? Page 74 ANATOLY CHUBAIS, CEO of RUSNANO The most profitable ideas are originating in high-tech industries Page 82 GARY BLUMENTHAL, President of World Perspectives, Inc., USA Why growth in productivity is by no means the most important thing in agribusiness Page 88 BORIS TITOV, Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ Rights How much reserves is the shadow economy hiding? Page 90 ANDY BALDWIN, EY Managing Partner for Europe, Middle East, India and Africa Europe: the decline of the Old World or the new technological future? Page 98 HEMANT KANORIA, Chairman of the Board and Managing Director of Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited, India How Russia and India should cooperate in a new economic situation Page 104 MARKO ČADEŽ, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia How a small country in the Balkans managed to conduct effective economic reforms Page 118 SERGEY GORKOV, Chairman of Vnesheconombank What is blockchain and how can it help to reform the financial sector ST. PETERSBURG 5 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM 2017 6 П 7 2017 8 FORUM: WHAT TO EXPECT 9 THE ST. PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM: FORUM: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ITS WHAT DISCUSSIONS, MEETINGS, AND WAYS TO SPEND YOUR TO EXPECT TIME IN THE MOST BEAUTIFUL CITY OF THE WORLD 10 FORUM: BUSINESS PROGRAMME The Forum’s business programme was The SPIEF programme includes sessions, roundtables, business developed with the involvement of the traditional BRICS session and B20 breakfasts, and televised debates. more than 200 leading experts from International Trade and Investment On the Zero Day of SPIEF, Russia, Europe, Asia, the United States, Forum, the Energy Summit, and a the Russian Small and Medium- and North and Latin America. number of business dialogues between Sized Enterprises Forum (SME), In 2017, the Forum events will be countries. Several business breakfasts the International Conference on united under the theme ‘Achieving a are to be held: ‘EAEU–India’, IT Developing Cooperation ‘from Lisbon New Balance in the Global Economic Breakfast, and more. Sessions of the to Vladivostok’, the Interregional Forum Arena’. Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ‘Women’s Entrepreneurship: Problems Discussions will focus on five main the Valdai Club are also planned, as well and Solutions in Europe and Arab pillars: as the Russia–India Forum of CEOs. Countries’, the second Interregional ƴ Dynamics of the Global Economy A session of the World Festival of Forum ‘Strengthening International ƴ Russian Economic Agenda Youth and Students will be held on the SME Alliances between the Russian ƴ Embracing Tech Disruptors Forum’s sidelines for the first time. Federation and Latin American and ƴ Focus on the Human Factor Discussions will be held in the Caribbean Countries (LAC)’ and the ƴ Foresight Series Forum’s traditional formats of panel World Sport Forum will be held. ST. PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL 11 ECONOMIC FORUM 2017 SPIEF INVESTMENT & BUSINESS EXPO A special communications ƴNovgorod Region WELIKE platform for companies to RUSSIA showcase their promising Russian and international ƴNP “North-West Cluster investment projects, B2B of Medical, Pharmaceutical REFERENCE INFORMATION solutions and technologies. Industry and Radiation Technologies” SPIEF 2017 information services Exhibition participants: Tel.: +7 (812) 680 0000 ƴOrenburg Region (24 hours) ƴAssociation of Innovative Fax: +7 (812) 680 0034 Regions of Russia ƴRussian Ministry of North Email: info@forumspb.сom Caucasus Affairs (North FORUMSPB.COM ƴBelarus Caucasus Development Corporation and Resorts of Forum financial services ƴCOALCO “IQ REGION” the North Caucasus) Participants can pay the ƴForesight ƴSevastopol participation cost in cash or with a bank card at the Forum’s ƴHeliports of Russia ƴSiberian Generating payment offices at Accreditation Company Centre 1 (Outlet Village Pulkovo, ƴHubei Xishui Kemei 60/1, Pulkovskoye Shosse). Machinery Co. Ltd. ƴSmolensk Region The financial services