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Data Appendix Figure A.1 Real Gross National Product During the Antebellum Era: 1834–1859 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 18561858 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Ca219. Figure A.2 Selected U.S. Male Occupations: Selected Years, 1800–1960 80000 70000 Total 60000 Agriculture 50000 40000 Mining 30000 Construction 20000 Manufacturing 10000 0 Trade 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Ba814, Ba817, Ba819, Ba820, BA821, Ba824, Ba825, Ba826. Note: In thousands. 248 Source Source Note Source Figure A.5 Figure A.4 Figure A.3 : ThisistheSchwert’sIndexofCommonStock. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesAa36,Aa46, Aa56. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCh411. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCj979. 100000000 150000000 200000000 250000000 300000000 100000 120000 10 12 14 16 50000000 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 2 4 6 8 0 1802 0 U.S. PopulationforSelectedYears:1790–1990 Total NumberofU.S.BusinessFailures:1857–1997 1805 Stock IndexDuringtheAntebellumEra:1802–1870 1857 1790 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 1990 1808 1863 1869 1811 1875 1814 1881 1817 1887 1820 1893 1823 1899 1826 1905 1829 1911 1832 1917 1835 1923 1838 1929 1841 1935 1941 1844 1947 1847 1953 1850 1959 1853 Total RuralPopulation Total UrbanPopulation Total Population Total 1965 1856 Data Appendix 1971 1859 1977 1862 1983 1865 1989 1995 1868 249 Note Source Note Source Figure A.8 up totheGreatDepression:1869–1929 Figure A.7 250 Source: Figure A.6 : ThisistheIndustrialsIndex. : ThisdataisfromGallman-Kuznetsestimationandin1929dollars. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCj801. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCa208. Data Appendix Historical Statistics,SeriesDf343. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 100000 120000 10000 12000 20000 40000 60000 80000 2000 4000 6000 8000 Stock IndexDuringtheNationalBankingEra:1871–1914 Number ofPassengerCarsSold:1900–1996 1871 Real GrossNationalProductDuringtheBankingEraand 0 1873 0 1875 1869 1900 1877 1872 1905 1879 1875 1910 1881 1878 1915 1883 1881 1920 1885 1884 1925 1887 1887 1930 1889 1890 1935 1891 1893 1940 1893 1896 1945 1895 1899 1950 1897 1902 1955 1899 1905 1960 1901 1908 1965 1903 1911 1970 1905 1914 1907 1975 1917 1909 1980 1920 1911 1985 1923 1913 1926 1990 1915 1929 1995 Source Figure A.10 Note Source Figure A.11 Source Figure A.9 : Inmillionsof1996dollars. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCj1192. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCa9. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCh412. 100 120 140 160 180 1000000 1200000 20 40 60 80 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 200000 400000 600000 800000 0 Total NumberofBusinessFailuresper10,000Businesses:1870–1997 Average AnnualYieldonU.S.GovernmentBonds:1842–1899 Real GrossDomesticProduct:1929–1940 1842 1870 1910 0 1845 1876 1912 1848 1882 1914 1851 1888 1894 1916 1854 1900 1857 1918 1906 1860 1920 1912 1863 1922 1918 1866 1924 1924 1869 1930 1926 1872 1936 1928 1875 1942 1948 1930 1878 1954 1881 1932 1960 1884 1934 1966 1887 1936 1972 Data Appendix 1890 1978 1938 1893 1984 1940 1896 1990 1996 1899 251 252 Data Appendix Figure A.12 U.S. Unemployment Rate: 1890–2009 25 20 15 10 5 0 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Ba475. Figure A.13 Private Sector Earnings: 1929–1940 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Ca55. Note: In billions of dollars. Figure A.14 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index: 1910–1940 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Cj804. Data Appendix 253 Figure A.15 Farm Prices for Selected Commodities: 1900–1940 140 120 100 80 Tobacco Prices 60 Wool Prices 40 Cotton Prices 20 0 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Da757, Da762, Da765. Figure A.16 Net Farm Income: 1910–1950 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 Source: Historical Statistics, Series Da1295. Note: All prices are cents per pound in millions of dollars. 254 Figure A.17 Data Appendix 16000 14000 Number of Individuals Employed in Farming: 1910–1950 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: Historical1910 Statistics, Series Da612. Note: In thousands. 1912 1914 1916 1918 Figure A.18 1920 1922 16 1924 1926 14 Annual Average Rate of Inflation: 1960–1999 1928 12 1930 1932 10 1934 1936 8 1938 6 1940 1942 4 1944 2 1946 1948 0 1950 1960 Source: Calculated from CPI(U) data at BLS.gov. 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Source Figure A.19 Source Figure A.20 10 12 14 16 100 105 110 115 0 2 4 6 8 : Federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/indexn_m.txt. : HistoricalStatistics,SeriesCj1232. 90 95 1931 1933 Jan-73 1935 Major CurrenciesDollarIndex:Monthly1973–1981 1937 Three MonthTreasury-BillRate:1931–1997 Jul-73 1939 1941 Jan-74 1943 1945 Jul-74 1947 Jan-75 1949 1951 Jul-75 1953 1955 Jan-76 1957 1959 Jul-76 1961 Jan-77 1963 1965 Jul-77 1967 1969 Jan-78 1971 1973 Jul-78 1975 Jan-79 1977 1979 Jul-79 1981 Data Appendix 1983 Jan-80 1985 Jul-80 1987 1989 Jan-81 1991 1993 Jul-81 1995 1997 255 corporations. Note data.htm. Source 2009 Figure A.21 Note data.htm. Source 256 Figure A.22 : Thisistheratioofcommercialpaperissuedtobankloansatnonfinancial,nonfarm : Thisistheratioofshort-termloans tototalassetsatfinancecompanies. : FederalReserveFlowofFunds,http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/ : FederalReserveFlowofFunds,http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/ Data Appendix 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 5 0 1955 1955 Role ofFinanceCompaniesinProvidingBusinessCredit:1955–2009 1957 Nonfinancial Corporation’sRelianceonCommercialPaper:1955– 1959 1958 1961 1961 1963 1965 1964 1967 1967 1969 1971 1970 1973 1973 1975 1977 1976 1979 1979 1981 1983 1982 1985 1985 1987 1988 1989 1991 1991 1993 1994 1995 1997 1997 1999 2000 2001 2003 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2009 Data Appendix 257 Figure A.23 Asset Growth at Mutual Funds and Money Market Mutual Funds: 1955–2009 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 Mutual Funds: total assets 4000 MMMF: total assets 3000 2000 1000 0 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/ data.htm. Note: Dollars in billions. Figure A.24 Regional Four-Quarter Change in FHFA House Price Indices: Panels A–C Panel A 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 –2 –4 –6 –8 –10 W.N. Central E.N. Central E.S. Central United States 258 Data Appendix Panel B 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 New England Mid Atlantic South Atlantic United States Panel C 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –25 Pacific Mountain W.S.Central United States Source: www.fhfa.gov. Note: Pacific includes Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California; Mountain includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico; West South Central includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana; West North Central includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri; East North Central includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio; East South Central includes Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama; New England includes Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut; Middle Atlantic includes New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania; South Atlantic includes Delaware, Maryland, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida. Source Figure A.25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 : http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Monthly/H15_FF_O.txt. Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Federal FundsRate:January2000–March2010 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Data Appendix Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 259 Jan-10 Notes Chapter 1 Commercial Bank Instability 1 Definitions of bank crisis and financial stability are found later in this chapter. 2 Much of this discussion draws from Grossman (1994). 3 Grossman’s (1994) analysis is during the Great Depression and considers the performance of many nations during this period. 4 These three perspectives are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For example, Bordo and James (2009) find more than one perspective to be important in understanding the cause of bank crises. 5 See, for example, Hayek (1937), Kirzner (1992), Mises (1949). 6 The term “bank crisis” is synonymous with “bank panic” in this work. The earliest episodes are often referred to as panics and later episodes are often characterized as crises. However, the author does not find a discernible dif- ference in the meaning of these word choices. 7 For an example of the many different scholarly perspectives and definitions, see Wolfson (1994), Gorton (1985, 1988), Wicker (1996), Schwartz (1986), Kindleberger and Aliber (2005), Mishkin (1991). 8 It would be more feasible to form a more precise definition if the time frame under consideration was smaller (e.g. if this book only considered a single era in commercial banking). However, over time banking markets evolve and regulation becomes more burdensome both of which change the elements of the crisis. Consequently, a broader definition is constructed to capture only the elements that prevail over the entire history of commercial banking.
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