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Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: an International Perspective

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Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: an International Perspective E c o n o m i c & S o c I a l A f r s United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division DESA The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which Member States of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. Note The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The term “country” as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The designations “developed” and “developing” countries or areas and “more developed”, “less developed” and “least developed” regions are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. ESA/P/WP/223 United Nations publication Copyright © United Nations, 2011 All rights reserved Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: An International Perspective United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Contents Preface……………………………………………………………………………………………..i Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………….1 Part One. Urban growth: global trends and challenges 1. Preparing for sustainable urban growth in developing areas George Martine.......................................................................................................................6 2. Living with shelter deprivations: Slum dwellers in the world Eduardo López Moreno……………………………………………………………………..31 Part Two. Internal migration, population distribution and development 2. The spatial distribution of the population, internal migration and development in Latin America and the Caribbean Jorge Rodríguez……………………………………………………………………………54 4. Internal migration in China: trends, geography and policies Kam Wing Chan……………………………………………………………………………81 Part Three. Rural and urban development: linkages and disparities 5. Links between rural and urban development in Africa and Asia Cecilia Tacoli………………………………………………………………………………110 6. Social and environmental aspects of peri-urban growth in Latin American mega-cities Haroldo da Gama Torres…………………………………………………………………123 7. The changing nature of urban and rural areas in the United Kingdom and other European countries Anthony Champion………………………………………………………………………..144 Part Four. Population distribution, urbanization and climate change 8. The impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of the population and on migration Susana B. Adamo and Alexander de Sherbinin……………………………………………161 9. Urban population distribution and the rising risks of climate change Deborah Balk………………………………………………………………………………196 10. Socio-ecological systems and urban environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific region Peter J. Marcotullio…………………………………………………………………….....205 11. Demographic aspects of climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict Henrik Urdal.......................................................................................................................243 Part Five. Urbanization, health and poverty 12. The health of urban populations in development countries Mark R. Montgomery………………………………………………………………….......264 13. Progress toward the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization and access to clean water Jean-Christophe Fotso, Nyovani Madise, Alex Chicka Eze and James Ciera……………286 Part Six. Urban planning and governance 14. The planning and governance of Asia’s mega-urban regions Aprodicio A. Laquian……………………………………………………………………..302 15. Urban system planning in China: The case of the Pearl River Delta Mee Kam Ng………………………………………………………………………………323 16. Climate change and urbanization: Effects and implications for urban governance David Satterthwaite……………………………………………………………………….340 PREFACE The geographical distribution of the population has undergone major changes in the past fifty years, and will continue to experience significant transformations during the coming decades. While the developed world became mostly urban around 1950, developing regions, including Africa and Asia, which are still mostly rural today, will have more people living in urban areas than in rural areas by 2030. Urbanization has brought a number of advantages to the national economies and opportunities for improving people’s well-being, for poverty reduction and for the promotion of sustainable development, but it also brings serious challenges in many countries. Information and analysis are essential to understand these challenges and to assist policy-makers define, formulate and evaluate policies and programmes that address them. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations organized an Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development, which took place from 21 to 23 January of 2008 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. The meeting brought together experts from different regions of the world to present and discuss recent research on trends and challenges of urban growth, internal migration, and population distribution, the linkages and disparities between urban and rural development, the challenges of climate change for the spatial distribution of the population, social aspects of urbanization, including its impacts on health, and aspects of urban planning and urban governance. This publication includes selected papers presented at that meeting as well as two contributions prepared after the meeting. It brings to the fore some important new findings that can serve as the basis for well-informed policy recommendations, not only with respect to population distribution but also, more in general, with respect to social and economic development. Thanks are due to the experts who have contributed to this publication and to other participants to the Meeting who enlightened the discussions. Special thanks go also to the staff of the Population Division who helped organize the Meeting and in particular to Donna Culpepper, who assisted in editing and formatting this publication. This publication can be accessed on the website of the Population Division at www.unpopulation.org. For further information about this publication, please contact the office of Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director, Population Division, DESA, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA; tel. (1-212) 963-3179; fax: (1-212) 963-2147. i POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, URBANIZATION, INTERNAL MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE INTRODUCTION For the first time in history, more people live now in urban than in rural areas. In 2010, urban areas are home to 3.5 billion people, or 50.5 per cent of the world’s population. In the next four decades, all of the world’s population growth is expected to take place in urban areas, which will also draw in some of the rural population through rural to urban migration. Moreover, most of the expected urban growth will take place in developing countries, where the urban population is expected to double, from 2.6 billion in 2010 to 5.2 billion in 2050. In developed countries, the number of urban dwellers will grow more modestly, from 0.9 million in 2010 to 1.1 billion in 2050. During the same period, the world’s rural population will decline by 0.6 billion. The level of urbanization varies significantly across regions and countries. Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania are highly urbanized, with proportions urban ranging from 70 to 82 per cent in 2010. Africa and Asia remain mostly rural, with only 40 and 42 per cent of their population living in urban settlements, respectively. By mid-century, however, all regions will be mostly urban, indeed more than 60 percent urban, according to current projections. The speed of urbanization is slower now than it was in past decades in all regions, largely because many countries have already reached high levels of urbanization. The rate of urban population growth is also declining and is expected to continue declining until 2050, although it is still very high in Africa, where the urban population was growing at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent in 2005-2010, and in Asia, where urban population growth averaged 2.8 per cent in the same period. Nevertheless, the absolute size of these increments is unprecedented: Africa gained an average 13 million additional urban dwellers per year in 2005-2010, and is expected to gain some 25 million per year in 2045-2050.
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