Spring_2012_COVER 4/23/2012 10:32 AM Page 3

american academy of arts & sciences

spring 2012 www.amacad.org Bulletin vol. lxv, no. 3

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Nuclear Future: After Fukushima Scott D. Sagan, Harald Müller, Noramly bin Muslim, Olli Heinonen, and Jayantha Dhanapala

The Future of the American Military Karl W. Eikenberry, John L. Hennessy, James J. Sheehan, David M. Kennedy, and William J. Perry

ALSO: Patrick C. Walsh, M.D., Awarded the Francis Amory Prize Humanities Indicators Track Signi½cant Changes in the Disciplines Strengthening Energy Policy through Social Science WikiLeaks and the First Amendment Upcoming Events Special Thanks to Donors

APRIL ore than $5.2 million was raised in the ½scal year completed on March 31, 25th M 2012. The Academy’s Annual Fund sur- Project Brie½ng–Washington, D.C. passed the $1.6 million mark for the ½rst The Alternative Energy Future time. Additional gifts and grants totaled Speakers: Steven Koonin (Institute for over $3.6 million, with more than 1,200 in- Defense Analyses; formerly, U.S. Depart- dividuals, 14 foundations, and 54 University ment of Energy); Robert Fri (Resources Af½liates contributing to make these results for the Future); Michael Graetz (Colum- possible. “This was a very successful year,” bia Law School); Michael Greenstone said Alan Dachs, Development and Public (Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Relations Committee Chair. “The Academy Brookings Institution); Kassia Yanosek is fortunate that so many Fellows support (Stanford University; Tana Energy the work we are doing.” Dachs expressed his Capital llc) deep appreciation to the members of the De- velopment Committee during the past year, MAY including Louise Bryson, Richard Cavanagh, 14th Jesse Choper, David Frohnmayer, Michael Reception–New York City Gellert, Matthew Santirocco, Stephen Reception in Honor of New York Area Fellows Stamas, Donald Stewart, Samuel Thier, and Nicholas Zervas, along with the continuing 16th involvement of Board Chair Louis Cabot. Stated Meeting–Cambridge “The growing number of leadership Annual Meeting and Spring Concert donors is a critical factor in our ability to re- main independent and nonpartisan while Performers: Arron Chamber Ensemble undertaking work that is having increasing influence on informed national policy. Our For updates and additions to the calendar, work, a broad range of publications, and visit http://www.amacad.org/event.aspx. Academy programs around the country de- pend on the resources provided by success- ful fund-raising efforts,” said Louis Cabot, Chair of the Board & Trust. A complete list of 2011–2012 contributors will appear in the Academy’s Annual Report, which will be published in the fall. Contents

Features

9 Prospects and Challenges for the Global Nuclear Future: After Fukushima A panel of global experts–Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University), Harald Müller (Frankfurt Peace Research Institute; Goethe- University), Noramly bin Muslim (National University of Malaysia), Olli Heinonen (Harvard Kennedy School; formerly, International Atomic Energy Agency), and Jayantha Dhanapala (Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs)–considers the global nuclear future in light of the accident at Fukushima.

18 WikiLeaks and the First Amendment 2 3 Legal scholar Geoffrey R. Stone (University of Chicago Law School) moderates a conversation with journalist Judith Miller (Manhattan Institute), Judge Richard A. Posner (U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit), and author Gabriel Schoenfeld (Hudson Institute; Witherspoon Institute) about the balance between freedom of the press and national security.

31 The Future of the American Military Historian David M. Kennedy (Stanford University), former 18 18 Secretary of Defense William J. Perry (Stanford University), historian James J. Sheehan (Stanford University), and former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl W. Eikenberry (Lt. Gen., ret., U.S. Army) discuss the changing relationship between the military and civilian society. Departments

2 Academy News 31 31 Francis Amory Prize Awarded to Patrick C. Walsh Beyond Technology Report Featured at National Energy Industry Gathering Dædalus on The Alternative Energy Future–Challenges for Technological Change Updated Humanities Indicators Track Changes in the Disciplines Around the Country Clockwise from top left: Patrick C. Walsh, M.D.; cover of 41 Remembrance Beyond Technology: Strengthening Energy Policy through Social Science; Richard A. Posner; Karl W. Eikenberry; William J. 42 Noteworthy Perry; Geoffrey R. Stone academy news

Francis Amory Prize Awarded to Patrick C. Walsh

K. Bartlett Professor of Surgery at Harvard Medical School, on “Advances in Reproductive Biology: The Impact on Disorders of Sexual Development and Ovarian Cancer.” Members of the 2012 Francis Amory Prize Committee include Randy W. Schekman, Chair (University of California, Berkeley), David E. Clapham (Harvard Medical School; Children’s Hospital, Boston), Barbara Jean Meyer (University of California, Berkeley), David C. Page (Whitehead Institute; mit), David W. Russell (University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center), and Leslie Berlowitz (American Academy).

The citation that was presented to Dr. Walsh reads: Society has bene½ted from your pathbreaking work as a sur- geon, researcher, and teacher. You have forever changed our fundamental understanding and treatment of prostate cancer. For three decades you directed the Brady Urological Institute, whose laboratories, clinics, and operating rooms produced David C. Page, 2012 Francis Amory Prize recipient Patrick C. Walsh, many of the most important advances in urology and trained and Leslie Berlowitz thousands of doctors from here and abroad. The anatomic ap- proach to radical prostatectomy that you developed has al- n March 14, 2012, the Academy presented the Francis Amory lowed far more men with early-stage disease to lead normal OPrize to Patrick C. Walsh, M.D., a renowned urologist who lives. pioneered work in the understanding and treatment of prostate can- Your characterization of the familial and genetic factors re- cer. First awarded in 1940, the Francis Amory Prize recognizes major sponsible for prostate cancer has broadened our understanding advances in reproductive biology and medical care. of the disease. You and your colleagues identi½ed the ½rst Dr. Walsh is University Distinguished Service Professor of Urol- genetic mutation associated with inherited prostate cancer. ogy at Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions. He served for thirty years Moreover, you have established the largest registry of men with as Director of the Brady Urological Institute, where he developed hereditary prostate cancer, and led efforts for improved and re½ned a new surgical approach to radical prostatectomy. The national standards for the early diagnosis and staging of the procedure, which has been performed on hundreds of thousands of cancer. patients worldwide, dramatically reduces the most serious side ef- A member of the Institute of Medicine and editorial board fects of the surgery. member of The New England Journal of Medicine, you have shared Along with colleagues at Johns Hopkins, he was the ½rst to de- your knowledge both in professional journals and in books for scribe the 5 alpha-reductase enzyme de½ciency, to develop an exper- the general public. The advances you have made in understand- imental technique for the induction of benign prostatic hyperplasia, ing and treating prostate cancer have galvanized research and to demonstrate the influence of reversible androgen deprivation on revolutionized the ½eld. bph, and to characterize hereditary prostate cancer. You have performed four thousand, ½ve hundred and sixty- Following the prize ceremony, Dr. Walsh participated in the Fran- nine life-saving surgeries, and with the same commitment and cis Amory Prize Symposium on advances in reproductive biology laser-like focus on men’s health, you continue to be a source of and medicine. He spoke about “The Impact of Anatomic Discover- healing and hope. Distinguished physician-scientist, skilled ies on Prostate Cancer Surgery.” The symposium also included pre- surgeon, inspired teacher, and relentless investigator, the sentations by David C. Page, Director of the Whitehead Institute, American Academy of Arts and Sciences is proud to confer Professor of Biology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, upon you the 2012 Francis Amory Prize. and Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator, on “The y Chromosome”; and by Patricia K. Donahoe, Director of Pediatric Surgical Research Laboratories and Chief Emerita of Pediatric Sur- gical Services at the Massachusetts General Hospital and Marshall

2 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Beyond Technology Report Featured at National Energy Industry Gathering

new Academy report, Beyond Technology: lagher added, “As a direct result of these and A Strengthening Energy Policy through Social other innovation investments, as well as Science, was featured at the 2012 National market-formation policies in the United Electricity Forum, a meeting organized by States and elsewhere, the commercial avail- the U.S. Department of Energy (doe) and ability of many advanced, ef½cient, and the National Association of Regulatory Util- cleaner energy technologies has increased ity Commissioners (naruc) that drew while the costs have fallen substantially dur- policy-makers, energy industry leaders, and ing the last four decades. Nevertheless, the scholars from around the country to address U.S. energy system of 2011 looks much like challenges facing the electricity industry in that of 1971.” the twenty-½rst century. Beyond Technology argues that as the exist- In her keynote presentation, Kelly Sims ing technological infrastructure changes, Gallagher, a member of the Academy’s Al- the legal, social, and economic infrastruc- ternative Energy Future steering committee tures will need to change, too. Indeed, the and Associate Professor of Energy and Envi- societal barriers to new technologies are ronmental Policy at Tufts University, dis- often much harder to overcome than the Kelly Sims Gallagher cussed how social science tools and analysis technical barriers, particularly, as Gallagher could help address the nontechnical barriers stated, “in a country that is fractured politi- ing collaboration between social scientists to implementing new energy technologies, cally and has multiple layers of governance, and policy-makers to move energy policy such as the behavior of individuals, house- and where public understanding of energy- forward. They include: holds, and institutions in adopting those related challenges and opportunities is l technologies. weak.” demonstrating the value of social and To date, energy policy has largely focused Yet energy policy and planning today are behavioral research for enhancing the on the technical barriers to change. Noting inattentive to many of these nontechnical effectiveness of energy policy; that the doe has invested more than $70 barriers. As a consequence, experimental l encouraging the use of interdiscipli- billion in research programs to develop energy projects are often poorly designed nary social science research within cleaner energy technologies since 1977, Gal- and duplicative, or they produce results that energy programs; are not well analyzed or communicated to l building capacity to connect the en- the public. “Siting of infrastructure is a clas- ergy policy and social science com- sic example,” Gallagher noted. “It has be- munities; come conventional wisdom here in the United States that public attitudes make it l incorporating behavioral considera- nearly impossible to implement a national tions into energy-related economic vision that requires new transmission lines, modeling efforts; and new power plants, or even a single wind tur- l engaging state and local governments bine on top of a hill.” and regulatory communities to design Creating a national vision for an energy more effective energy policies. future will require better understanding of how society shapes and is shaped by its en- In thinking about policy design at the ergy system. Here, Gallagher pointed out, community level, Gallagher explained, so- social science research can provide system- cial science can “turn the question upside atic, interdisciplinary analysis of problems down and ask: when and why do communi- and solutions to inform sound policy design. ties accept new energy technologies?” She She outlined the report’s main ½ndings and recommendations, which focus on enhanc- continued on page 4

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 3 academy news

Beyond Technology: continued from page 3 Beyond Technology is based on ongoing work of the Academy’s Alternative Energy Social Science and the Future project, which is supported by the Alternative Energy Future described successful wind energy initiatives doe in New Jersey and Denmark that demonstrate and the National Science Foundation, Beyond Technology Steering Committee how long-term visions can be implemented two anonymous foundations, and contribu- through effective public engagement and an tors to the American Academy Intellectual Robert W. Fri (Chair), Resources for emphasis on policy experimentation and Venture Fund, including The Fremont the Future Group, Kleiner Perkins Cau½eld & Byers, evaluation. Stephen Ansolabehere, Harvard Social science research can also shed light and Novartis. University on consumer behavior. Studies have shown that individuals often do not conduct ration- Douglas Arent, National Renewable Beyond Technology: Strengthening Energy al cost-bene½t analyses, but rather make de- Policy through Social Science is available Energy Laboratory cisions based on other considerations. For online at http://www.amacad.org/pdfs/ Ann Carlson, University of California, example, it has been observed that trust is alternativeEnergy.pdf. More informa- Los Angeles a crucial ingredient to having a successful tion about the Alternative Energy Future siting outcome, and that trust can be gained project may be found on the Academy’s Thomas Dietz, Michigan State website at http://www.amacad.org/ University and established through early, careful, and projects/alternativeNEW.aspx. systematic stakeholder engagement and Kelly Sims Gallagher, Tufts University decision-making procedures. “An intriguing consumer behavior ques- M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon tion relates to the so-called smart grid,” Gal- University lagher said. “We’ve seen a lot of experimen- Maxine Savitz, Honeywell, Inc. (ret.) tation with demand response programs. If Paul C. Stern, National Research real-time electricity pricing were available to Council consumers, would they adjust their con- sumption behavior? Would they act ‘smart’? James L. Sweeney, Stanford University Structured experiments could be conducted Michael P. Vandenbergh, Vanderbilt to determine what consumers are likely to University do, based on recent experience and research on residential feedback programs.” Project Staff To this end, Beyond Technology encourages utilities to adopt social science-based best John Randell, American Academy practices when deploying new technologies, of Arts and Sciences like smart meters, whose success depends on public acceptance by individual consumers. “Implementing any of our visions for a twenty-½rst-century electricity industry will require more effective implementation strategies than we have utilized in recent years,” Gallagher concluded. “Those strate- gies could be better informed by social sci- ence research and policy analysis, and Beyond Technology provides some useful ideas for how social science could be used to strengthen energy policy.”

4 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 New Publication

Dædalus on The Alternative Energy Future–Challenges for Technological Change

he Spring 2012 issue of Dædalus examines the current state of Tenergy policy and the prospects for technological change in the Spring 2012 issue of Dædalus on U.S. energy system. It explores how a more effective national energy The Alternative Energy Future policy could better respond to three drivers of change: climate change, national security, and global competition. Introduction by Robert W. Fri (Resources for the Future) & Guest edited by Robert W. Fri (Resources for the Future) and Stephen Ansolabehere (Harvard University) Stephen Ansolabehere (Harvard University), the volume docu- ments a multi-decade record of misdirected policy initiatives and a “Paying Too Much for Energy? The True Costs of Our Energy history of underpricing energy relative to its societal costs. The es- Choices” by Michael Greenstone (Massachusetts Institute of says explore political resistance to addressing the pricing problem Technology; Brookings Institution) & Adam Looney (Brook- and identify a lack of public understanding of the link between cli- ings Institution) mate change and the need to transform the energy system. In addi- tion, the authors note that focusing on local bene½ts, and employing “Energy Policy: Past or Prologue?” by Michael J. Graetz(Colum- regulatory approaches rather than pricing strategies, may be the bia Law School) most productive approaches to building public support for cleaner “Using the Market to Address Climate Change: Insights from energy in the short term. Theory & Experience” by Joseph E. Aldy (Harvard University) But accounting for societal costs is not the only challenge facing & Robert N. Stavins (Harvard University) policy-makers. A successful national energy policy must also en- courage the development of affordable, reliable, and clean energy “The American Public’s Energy Choice” by Stephen Ansol- technologies. Innovation involves more than inventing new tech- abehere (Harvard University) & David M. Konisky (George- nology; it also requires that the technology diffuse throughout the town University) economy at a suf½cient scale to make a difference. The essays in the “Is Shale Gas Good for Climate Change?” by Daniel P. Schrag Dædalus issue offer recommendations both for stimulating innova- (Harvard University) tion and for ½nancing the widespread deployment of promising technologies. “Stimulating Energy Technology Innovation” by Ernest J. As Fri and Ansolabehere note in their introduction to the issue, Moniz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) “Regardless of how the price and politics of energy play out, it will be essential to create technology that can grasp the holy grail of “Policies for Financing the Energy Transition” by Kassia Yanosek (Stanford University; Quadrant Management; Tana affordable, reliable, and clean energy.” llc As a companion to this issue, the Winter 2013 issue of Dædalus will Energy Capital ) explore how societal responses to the transformation of the energy “National Policies to Promote Renewable Energy” by system could help or hinder the emergence of new technologies, and Mohamed T. El-Ashry (United Nations Foundation) how social science research can be incorporated into energy-policy development. For more information about Academy publications, visit http:// www.amacad.org/publication.aspx.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 5 academy news

Updated Humanities Indicators Track Changes in the Disciplines

ith the support of the Andrew W. ciological and cultural impact of their ½elds rection of project leader Norman Bradburn, WMellon Foundation and the National as a whole and little understanding of how Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Endowment for the Humanities, the Hu- the public uses the humanities in its everyday Service Professor Emeritus at the University manities Indicators have become a valuable life,” said Gerald Early, Merle Kling Profes- of Chicago and Senior Fellow at norc, source of information about the state of the sor of Modern Letters at Washington Uni- project staff have created a new Indicator on humanities, providing data to the higher ed- versity in St. Louis and Chair of the Acad- Study Abroad (both U.S. students studying ucation community, the media, cultural or- emy Council. “But such knowledge is essen- abroad and foreign students studying in the ganizations, and policy-makers. tial if the humanities are to make a com- United States), which will be posted this To date, the Humanities Indicators web- pelling case for themselves in the twenty- summer. site (http://www.humanitiesindicators.org/ ½rst century.” Among the trends highlighted by recent humanitiesData.aspx) has received more A priority of the project has been the up- updates to the Indicators are: than two million hits from over 100 coun- dating of data from the original Indicators. The persistent weakness of high school tries, and the data have been widely cited in The Academy, in cooperation with the Na- history teacher preparation: journalism and scholarship addressing the tional Opinion Research Center (norc) at Approximately 29 percent of history stu- strengths and weaknesses of American educa- the University of Chicago, has added new dents in public schools were taught by tion. The data sets currently include 75 Indi- data and explanatory narratives to 19 Indica- teachers with degrees and certi½cation in cators and 213 ½gures and supporting tables. tors, including 58 updated ½gures with sup- history, according to data for the 2007– “Many scholars and students in the hu- porting tables and 39 ½gures for which 2008 school year. By comparison, 73 per- manities have little understanding of the so- revisions are now under way. Under the di-

6 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 cent of students in the natural sciences This year, the Academy will also begin a sec- ulty, teaching, and students at hundreds of were taught by certi½ed teachers with sci- ond round of data collection to update the two-year colleges; this new data will reflect ence degrees (see Figure I-9a). Humanities Departmental Survey. The ½rst an important sector of higher education An ongoing decline in reading to children: survey was administered in 2007 and 2008 comprising 44 percent of the nation’s under- to over 1,400 humanities departments in the graduates. In 2007, only 55 percent of children ages 3 ½elds of history, English and literature, for- Citing the importance of the project, sev- to 5 were read to by a family member each eign languages, art history, linguistics, and eral national learned societies–including day, compared to 60 percent in 2005. The religion. It provided baseline data reflecting the Modern Language Association, the Amer- sharpest decline was seen in households the state of the humanities in colleges and ican Historical Association, the Linguistic in which the mother had less than a high universities. The second survey, to be pub- Society of America, and the American Mu- school education–from 41 percent to 31 lished in 2013, will add new disciplines and sicological Society–are providing annual percent during the same period. Only chil- enable scholars to track trends over time. support for the Indicators and for the next dren whose mothers had at least a bache- The associations participating in the sec- round of updates to the Humanities Depart- lor’s degree were more likely than their ond round include: American Academy of mental Survey. 2005 predecessors to have been read to Religion, American Folklore Society, Amer- “The ready availability of these data daily by a family member. ican Historical Association, American Mu- serves the needs, not only of scholars and the Decreasing spending on humanities sicological Society, American Philological general public, but also of policy-makers,” and education research: Society, American Philosophical Associa- said Francis Oakley, Edward Dorr Grif½n Though the decline in college and univer- tion, College Art Association, History of Sci- Professor of the History of Ideas, Emeritus, sity spending on humanities research was ence Society, Linguistic Society of America, at Williams College and a member of the slight, from approximately $259 million in Modern Language Association, and the Na- Oversight Committee of the Academy’s Ini- 2007 to $253 million in 2009, the humani- tional Communication Association. tiative for Humanities and Culture. “It is ties and education were the only academic Additionally, in conjunction with the hard now to imagine having to manage ½elds for which research expenditures Community College Humanities Association, without them.” were lower (see Figure IV-10a). we will be collecting data on humanities fac-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 7 around the country

Members Gather at The Getty Center

At a Stated Meeting at The Getty Center in Los Angeles on March 3, 2012, Getty curatorial staff led more than 150 Academy members and guests on tours of the Getty Museum, the Getty Research Institute, and the Getty Conservation Institute. Fellows James Cuno, President and Chief Executive Of½cer of the J. Paul Getty Trust, and Thomas W. Gaehtgens, Director of the Getty Research Institute, spoke about the institution’s exhibitions and collections, its global art restoration and conservation efforts, and its research program. The meeting also featured the of½cial Induction of 16 previously elected Academy members.

Gene Block (University of California, Los Angeles) and Marianne Bronner (California Institute of Technology), James Cuno (J. Paul Getty Trust) Frances Arnold (California Institute of Technology), and Bill Viola (Bill Viola Studio)

Thomas Hines (University of California, Los Angeles), Academy President Leslie Berlowitz, Louise Bryson (J. Paul Getty Trust), and Thomas Gaehtgens (Getty Research Institute)

8 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Prospects and Challenges for the Global Nuclear Future: After Fukushima

n 2010, the American Academy joined with Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation to assess game-changing events that Iwould fundamentally alter the future of nuclear energy. The workshop on game changers was part of the Academy’s ongoing Global Nuclear Future Initia- tive, which explores the possibility of international cooperation and collaboration with regard to nuclear energy. The workshop convened of½cials from govern- ment, industry, the national labs, and academia to discuss the potential game changers that could result from innovations in the fuel cycle and in reactor de- signs, or from a military attack, a terrorist event, a catastrophic accident, or a nat- ural disaster. Six-and-a-half months after that meeting, an earthquake and tsunami crip- pled the Fukushima nuclear complex in Japan and had an impact on nuclear energy deployment worldwide. On October 25, 2011, the Academy convened a panel of global experts at Stanford University. Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University), Harald Müller (Frankfurt Peace Research Institute and Goethe-University), Noramly bin Muslim (National University of Malaysia), Olli Heinonen (Harvard Kennedy School; formerly, International Atomic Energy Agency), and Jayantha Dhanapala (Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs) considered the global nuclear future in light of the accident at Fukushima. The panel discussion served as the Academy’s 1975th Stated Meeting. The following is an edited transcript of the discussion.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 9 after fukushima

Russia, while not starting construction of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and new nuclear power plants, approved a num- World Affairs. His previous posts include ber of “lifetime-extension” programs of ex- Senior Advisor to the President of Sri Lanka, isting reactors after March 2011. Some states Sri Lankan Ambassador to the United States have even used the Japanese accident to and to Mexico, and un Under-Secretary- argue that their new nuclear facilities are General for Disarmament Affairs. In 1995, better than older plants. Iran, for example, he was President of the npt Review Con- announced that its new Russian-supplied ference, in which the inde½nite extension reactor is the safest reactor in the world. of the npt was negotiated. The nuclear future has become both more complex and more uncertain since the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident.

To help us understand the nuclear future, I will start with a question for Harald. we have put together a distinguished, di- After the Fukushima accident, the German verse, and international panel of specialists. government was one of a handful of govern- Harald Müller is Director of the Frankfurt ments around the world to announce that it Peace Research Institute and Professor of In- would phase out all domestic production ternational Relations at Goethe-University of nuclear energy. Why was that decision in Frankfurt. In 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010, made, is it likely to stick, and is it also influ- Scott D. Sagan he participated as a member of the German encing German nuclear export policy? Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Pro- delegation to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (npt) Review Conference. Noramly fessor of Political Science at Stanford University, bin Muslim is Professor Emeritus in the De- where he is also a Senior Fellow in the Freeman partment of Science and Technology at the Spogli Institute and Codirector Emeritus of the National University of Malaysia. He is the Center for International Security and Coopera- former Chairman of the Malaysian Atomic tion. He has been a Fellow of the American Energy Licensing Board and former Deputy Academy since 2008. He serves as Codirector of Director-General of the International Atomic the Academy’s Global Nuclear Future Initiative. Energy Agency (iaea) and Head of its De- partment of Technical Assistance and Coop- he nuclear future has become both more eration. He has also served as Head of the Tcomplex and more uncertain since the Malaysian Nuclear Research Center. Olli March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident. A Heinonen is a Senior Fellow at the Belfer small number of countries–including Ger- Center for Science and International Affairs many, Italy, Israel, Venezuela, and Myan- at the Harvard Kennedy School. Previously, mar–have announced that they will end he served for twenty-seven years at the iaea their existing nuclear power programs or in Vienna. Until ½ve years ago, he was Dep- stop their planned programs; many others uty Director-General of the iaea and Head have announced that they will move forward of its Department of Safeguards, where he or even expand their civilian nuclear energy was responsible for, among many things, programs. The United Arab Emirates, for ex- efforts to shut down A. Q. Khan’s nuclear ample, broke ground on its new nuclear re- proliferation network and efforts to mon- actor site immediately after the Fukushima itor and contain Iran’s nuclear program. Daiichi accident, and the United States and Finally, Jayantha Dhanapala is President of

10 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 ment. We gave up on commercial reprocess- not afford another turnabout of that sort. ing. We scrapped the experimental repro- For the foreseeable future, we have a cessing plant, the commercial fast breeder strongly antinuclear government, and the (which is now the center of a holiday park), four big utilities have an incentive to prevent and the experimental breeder. We gave up a brownout or blackout because the entire on mox fuel production and the high-tem- country would accuse them of intentionally perature reactor, turning to full-scope safe- manufacturing such an event. They are also guards as a condition of the supply of nuclear facing a great deal of competition from small and related dual-use goods, strengthening utilities at the local level. export controls, and negotiating and signing Does it impact our exports? Sure it does; the npt’s Additional Protocol. it has been doing so for a while. Germany Then the Red-Green government, which has not exported nuclear facilities for some was unnoticed in most parts of the world, time, but I do not think it will cease to export decided to phase out nuclear energy. After equipment, materials, and technology that long negotiations, the government made an can be used in nuclear power plants or other Germany’s decision to end domestic production of nuclear energy came at the end of a long road lead- ing in that direction; Fukushima was simply the last Harald Müller nail in the coffin. Harald Müller is Director of the Frankfurt Peace agreement with the four utilities holding facilities. Our industry is always capable of nuclear power plants. The phaseout was to producing dual-use goods, which are bound Research Institute and Professor of International be effected by 2030. The utilities agreed, to entail proliferation risks. Relations at Goethe-University in Frankfurt. tongue-in-cheek, because they were waiting I think that we will phase out domestic for a new conservative government, and not production of nuclear energy. Usually, when ermany’s decision to end domestic pro- for nothing: when Angela Merkel came to we undertake a project of that size, we do it Gduction of nuclear energy came at the power, she and members of the liberal party successfully, for better or worse, and maybe end of a long road leading in that direction; negotiated an extended phaseout in what we will be the shining example for countries Fukushima was simply the last nail in the was actually a bonanza for the utilities. Pub- like Belgium and Switzerland, or other coun- cof½n. Recall that in 1957, Germany made a lic protests ensued, and at that moment, tries that want to phase out, in the future. secret agreement with France and Italy to Fukushima happened. Public opinion polls jointly create the bomb. Germany resigned npt showed that some 70 percent of Germans from this effort when it joined the and, held antinuclear views. The conservatives as compensation, turned to unrestrained use lost an election in a crucial state where con- of civilian nuclear power, including unre- servative governments had essentially been strained exports. That decision was based on in power since the Middle Ages. Within two a national consensus. The change in Ger- weeks, the liberals and the conservatives many’s outlook on nuclear energy started completely reversed their policy and decided with a grassroots movement in the mid- to accelerate the phase-out, closing down six 1970s that gave birth to the Green Party. plants in straightforward fashion. After that, the Social Democrats left the na- Is that decision reversible? I don’t believe tional consensus, and suddenly, two major so. We have two parties, Red and Green, for parties were against nuclear power. More re- which being antinuclear is a matter of their markable was the fate of German fuel-cycle identity. We have two other parties that can- policy under the conservative Kohl govern-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 11 after fukushima

Question from Scott Sagan: has decided not to proceed. Fukushima has Noramly, how has the Fukushima accident indeed had an effect within the region. influenced prospects for the development of In Malaysia, for example, we have pro- civilian nuclear power in Southeast Asia? ceeded with our tender documents. The ½rst Which countries in the region are likely to tender that we awarded was to an Austrian move forward and develop nuclear power company that will look into the legal and plants, and from whom will they purchase regulatory requirements to go forward with the technology? nuclear power. We have also asked the law faculty of the National University of Malay- sia to study the legal requirements for Malaysia to move ahead with the next phase. The Fukushima accident affected the nuclear pro- grams within the Associ- ation of Southeast Asian Nations. In fact, the next phase has already begun: we invited ten international contractors to Noramly bin Muslim compete for the tender on siting, the feasi- Noramly bin Muslim is Professor Emeritus in the bility study, and the preparation of the bid Faculty of Science and Technology at the Na- documents. Unfortunately, after the acci- dent at Fukushima, two companies with- tional University of Malaysia. Formerly he served drew from the tender; but we have evaluated as Chairman of the Malaysian Atomic Energy the remaining companies and are working Licensing Board and as Deputy Director-General on the details. With the election around the of the IAEA. corner, however, we cannot make the an- nouncement just yet. So the project is being he Fukushima accident does affect the put on hold at the moment. nuclear programs within the Associa- We have not decided the country from T asean tion of Southeast Asian Nations ( ). which we will acquire the necessary tech- asean Of the ten countries, seven had in- nologies, but a number of suppliers and ven- dicated their interest in moving forward dors have come to Malaysia to give pre- with a nuclear power program. Vietnam has sentations and engage in discussions, as well indicated that it will proceed with its pro- as to recruit some of our citizens to visit and gram; so has Malaysia, though the Malay- be trained at their companies. Japan, Korea, sian program will maintain a low pro½le. and France have more or less offered their Thailand has indicated that it will put its technologies to us. Once our consultant pre- program on hold for at least two years. In- pares the bid document, and once that bid donesia has also indicated interest in nuclear goes out, we will decide from which country energy, but because of Fukushima, the coun- to purchase. In the meantime, we have try is dragging its feet due to public concern. moved ahead with our training program, Singapore is still doing feasibility studies. human resource development, and public The Philippines had plans to revive its cur- relations efforts to create public awareness rently inactive nuclear power plant, but now and acceptance. We have sent politicians

12 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 and parliamentarians to Korea, Japan, and the atmosphere in the iaea. Then, for a pe- France. There are also people from the riod of time between the end of 2003 and United States who have a special interest 2004, Iran implemented provisionally the in some of the matters related to nuclear Additional Protocol of the iaea and pro- energy in Malaysia. vided also a declaration about its past nuclear In terms of organization, Malaysia follows program. Unfortunately, this declaration the procedures and guidelines prepared by was not complete. Iran omitted essential the iaea, and we also hire some consul- details from its documentation, such as the tants. Originally, we had nineteen possible so-called p-2 centrifuge program. sites; an initial evaluation by consultants Parallel to that development, information from Korea brought the number of potential related to the military aspects of the pro- sites to ½ve, and after a second evaluation, to gram began to surface. Though not all nu- three. Now we have three sites to present to clear weapons-related, those military as- the consultants selected to conduct feasibil- pects clearly indicated that the Iranian mili- ity studies. So we are moving ahead. And tary establishment was involved in the r&d after the election, we hope to move ahead at and the procurement of materials for the full speed. civil nuclear program–providing certain services and manufacturing components, for example. In 2004, 2005, and 2006, exper- iments that could be relevant to the develop- ment of nuclear weapons came to light. Question from Scott Sagan: Olli Heinonen These activities included high-explosive Olli, since the Fukushima accident, the Ira- tests, missile reentry vehicle design, and nian government has both begun its opera- Olli Heinonen is a Senior Fellow at the Belfer neutron physics experiments. iaea tions at what it claims is the safest nuclear Center for Science and International Affairs The Board asked Iran to suspend its power plant in the world, the Bushehr nu- at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is former enrichment activities until these questions clear reactor, and enriched uranium up to were resolved. Unfortunately, Iran did not Deputy Director-General of the IAEA and Head 20 percent at the Natanz facility, claiming heed to that request, and the un Security of its Department of Safeguards. that it is for the research reactor in Tehran. Council took up the issue. The Security Given your experience as former Deputy Di- Council has issued six resolutions since iaea will address the topic in three parts. First, rector-General of the , your comments iaea then, but rather than complying, Iran has expressing your concern that Iran is com- Iwhat led the to the conclusion that been slowly building its enrichment capabil- mitted to developing a nuclear weapons op- Iran is in noncompliance with its safeguards ities while leaving all the questions about agreement, why did the iaea refer this prob- tion have been widely represented in the un military-related activities unanswered. press. Why has the international commu- lem to the Security Council, and what From 2007 until Summer 2008, the iaea nity, and the iaea more speci½cally, been are the subsequent resolutions and remain- Secretariat was able to talk about these mil- unable to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment ing concerns? Second, what does the Iranian itary aspects, but since then, there has been program? What do you hope–and what do nuclear program consist of today? Third, no constructive discussion with Iran. you predict–will happen with respect to and most dif½cult, what will it consist of a Iran started larger-scale uranium enrich- Iran’s nuclear program in the coming year? year from now? ment in early 2007 in Natanz. Today, the Iran conducted nuclear experiments for growth of its capabilities has been less like almost twenty years without reporting some a hundred-yard dash and more like a of its activities under its comprehensive iaea marathon run. Although the enrichment safeguards agreement with the . When program is a matter of concern, we feel that, these clandestine operations became public because Iran has been building its nuclear in late 2002 and 2003, instead of admitting capabilities slowly, we still have time to solve its de½ciencies, Iran took the route of denial the problem before it gets out of hand. Con- and deception, which had a tremendous im- sider these facts: Natanz has about six thou- pact on the international community and

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 13 after fukushima

sand ir-1 centrifuges. They have produced The needs of the Tehran research reactor now have a small, semi-industrial demon- about ½ve tons of uranium hexafluoride have been used to justify the 20 percent stration plant–which it does not. It has only (uf6), which is 3.5 percent enriched. At that enriched uranium production. But Iran has just begun to feed the ½rst cascades. We have level, the work of creating high-enriched another approach that has not received time, but that time will probably run out in uranium, which is needed for weapons pur- much attention: the heavy-water reactor it 2013. poses, is 75 percent complete. Five tons, or is building in Arak. When Iran announced The commissioning of new advanced cen- ten thousand pounds, of uf6 is enough to construction of the reactor to the iaea in trifuges will be the game changer in Iran’s power perhaps four nuclear weapons, de- 2003 (Iran recon½rmed its plans a month capacity. Regardless of how well the cen- pending on the design and sophistication of ago), the reactor was supposed to replace the trifuges perform, they will be ½ve times those weapons. Iran has no urgent reason for Tehran research reactor. It is odd to produce more powerful than the current ir-1s. enriching its uranium. Iran can wait for the fuel for a reactor that is supposedly being re- Everything will multiply by four or ½ve over questions surrounding its program to be re- placed. Moreover, the Tehran research reac- that time period. solved before continuing the enrichment tor was built in the 1960s, so it is ½fty years program. In addition, the performance of its old, and is located in an area that is vulnera- centrifuges has been fairly poor. Indeed, out- ble to earthquakes. For safety reasons, the put has declined in the last year. reactor should be somewhere else. So the Today, the growth of Iran’s nuclear capabilities has been less like a hundred-yard dash and more like a marathon run.

But also during this past year, Iran took justi½cations for the enrichment program do one more step, raising additional concern. not add up. The country has produced 3.5 percent en- The numbers I have discussed suggest that riched uranium and fed it to another cascade Iran has enough material to build nuclear system, which has been producing 20 per- weapons. Yet what remains unclear is the ac- cent enriched uranium. If the goal is to cre- tual route that Iran is pursuing. All the low- ate high-enriched uranium at 90 percent enriched uranium from Natanz feeds the enrichment, achieving 20 percent enrich- 20 percent enriched uranium. At this point, ment means that 90 percent of the work is the entire enrichment program is dedicated done. If at some point Iran decides to leave to producing 20 percent enriched uranium. the npt, the time frame in which the coun- Iran has announced that it will triple its pro- try is vulnerable to international actions will duction. By the end of 2012, it will have decrease considerably. about two hundred kilos of 20 percent en- According to recent iaea reports, the poor riched uranium. By comparison, the ½ve performance of Iran’s centrifuges is per- tons of low-enriched uranium probably haps good news. To produce a single nuclear presents the greater proliferation concern. weapon–using a scheme that I believe they Can Iran make the 20 percent enriched must have taken from A.Q. Khan–it will take uranium faster? Based on the information a half-year for those nearly six thousand ma- the iaea has in its reports–and provided chines to shift from 3.5 percent to 90 percent that Iran is not engaged in any additional ef- enriched uranium. Iran will not likely desert forts to build nuclear capacity–it is not very from its commitments in the next year or so likely that the country can boost its capaci- because it does not have the technical means ties considerably in the next year. The devel- to do so. Thus, the international community opment of an advanced centrifuge has also can use this time to its advantage and nego- been lagging behind. Considering that ex- tiate a solution with Iran. periments began in 2007, Iran should by

14 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Question from Scott Sagan: country was, in effect, indicating its ambi- Jayantha, in another post-Fukushima devel- tions to become a nuclear weapon state. nsg Therefore, the approval process had to be opment, the Nuclear Suppliers Group ( ) nsg decided in June 2011 to adopt more restric- treated very cautiously. Second, the tive criteria for countries exporting nuclear outlined Dual-Use Guidelines, which also technology. Those countries must use the call for special attention to export applica- criteria to determine which nations can ac- tions for components that could lead to a nu- clear weapons program. quire sensitive nuclear technology. Can you nsg briefly outline those criteria and explain In June 2011, the –which has now how world governments are reacting to grown to forty-six members and includes them? For example, are the criteria consid- developing countries like Brazil and Argen- ered a violation of Article iv of the npt, tina as well as China (which for a long time which gives countries the right to acquire had declined to join)–met in the Nether- nuclear technology? Will efforts to sign lands to approve a revised set of guidelines civilian nuclear agreements with India fur- for exports relating to uranium enrichment ther complicate the matter? and spent-fuel reprocessing and technology. The new rules effectively bar exports to states that have not signed or are not in com- pliance with the npt, that have not insti- tuted comprehensive iaea safeguards, and that do not allow extensive monitoring under the terms of the Additional Protocol, Jayantha Dhanapala among other criteria. Jayantha Dhanapala is President of the Pugwash The statement issued after this meeting Conferences on Science and World Affairs. was brief; it did not explicitly lay out the new guidelines, but it agreed to strengthen Previously he served as Senior Advisor to the the guidelines on the transfer of sensitive en- President of Sri Lanka, UN Under-Secretary- richment and reprocessing (enr) technol- General for Disarmament Affairs, and Sri Lankan ogies. It talked about the Brasilia Plenary Ambassador to the United States and to Mexico. decision to review the status of adherence to He was President of the 1995 NPT Review and the Additional Protocol and went on to Extension Conference and the 1984 Conference make several other points. But it was not on Disarmament. until July, in a communication from the president of the nsg to the iaea, that the broad swath of countries in the global amendments were spelled out. The revisions A South belonging to the Non-Aligned consisted of a change in paragraphs six and Movement have no nuclear-weapon ambi- seven of the Part 1 guidelines. Paragraph six tions but want to use nuclear power for discussed special controls on sensitive ex- peaceful purposes, particularly in the service ports and called on supplier states to exer- of developing their countries. They see the cise a policy of restraint in the transfer of nsg as a self-appointed cartel that has de- sensitive facilities, equipment, technology, cided, without consulting them, on guide- and material usable for nuclear weapons or lines to prevent the export of dual-use other nuclear explosive devices. The new technology. When the nsg formed around guidelines specify the above-mentioned sce- 1974, it established the Zangger Committee narios in which states would be deemed in- Trigger List of exports subject to safeguards eligible to receive exports. Section 6c details and controls. It was understood that by ap- the exemptions that can be made, including plying for access to exports on that list, a exemptions to cooperative enrichment en-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 15 after fukushima

In the past, members of the NSG were asked only to number of experts who have read the U.S. legislation on the subject, including the exercise restraint in the export of sensitive technology. Hyde Act, believe that India certainly will . . . The reference to the Additional Protocol as a con- not receive permission for enr technology. But comments from the Indian press and the dition of supply is a controversial new requirement external affairs minister, among others, because joining the Additional Protocol is entirely make it clear that India understands the agreement to preclude restrictions on enr voluntary. technology in India. So that issue remains undecided. terprises such as the agreement between and the Missile Technology Control Regime, Brazil and Argentina, abacc (Brazilian- developing countries are subject to the same Argentine Agency of Nuclear Materials level of controls if they wish to acquire con- Accounting and Control). ventional weapons. Commentators have noted that, in the The arrangements do not appear to be Questions from the Audience past, members of the nsg were asked only mutually cooperative. If the new guidelines to exercise restraint in the export of sensitive were a result of consultation between the Question technology; the much more speci½c condi- importing countries and the exporting coun- tions laid out in the revised guidelines estab- tries, some consensus could have been There is an opportunity cost associated with lished objective criteria that had not been reached. But because the importing coun- shutting down base-load nuclear power there before. The reference to the Additional tries were not consulted, the guidelines ap- plants in Germany: namely, that coal plants Protocol as a condition of supply is a contro- pear to be an additional limitation on these could have been shut down with the same ef- versial new requirement because joining the countries’ development. fect on electricity generation and the same Additional Protocol is entirely voluntary. In India, the situation is completely differ- need to provide replacement power. An ex- Some countries balk at agreeing to the Addi- ent. For one, the problem stems from the tensive study performed in Europe looked at tional Protocol because they feel strongly controversial U.S.-India Nuclear Coopera- the local consequences in terms of public that as long as Article vi (the disarmament tion Agreement, which was widely viewed, health and environmental and external article) of the npt is not being completely including by nonaligned countries that have costs. For Germany, the study showed that ful½lled by the nuclear weapon states, there friendly relations with India, as a violation the external costs associated with coal plants is no justi½cation for imposing further of the npt and as inconsistent with un Se- are much larger than for nuclear plants. burdens and controls on the non-nuclear curity Council Resolution 1172, which con- What is the basis behind the decision to weapon states. The exemption made for the tains very harsh language with regard to forgo the opportunity to shut down coal abacc arrangement is also questionable; both India and Pakistan on the 1998 explo- plants and to close nuclear plants instead? some think that the abacc does not offer sion of nuclear devices. The fact that India, the same level of assurance regarding a which is outside the npt, was embraced Harald Müller country’s nuclear program that the Addi- and given the facilities normally reserved for The decision was made on political grounds tional Protocol provides. countries that are in good standing in the by a panicky government. There were no npt The revised guidelines are perceived as an- as non-nuclear weapon states was con- studies conducted or opportunity costs cal- other burden on the non-nuclear weapon sidered a complete reversal of policy and a culated. With the decision made, our engi- opec npt states. By comparison, if (the Orga- betrayal of the . Aggressive U.S. diplo- neers and economists will try to make the nsg nization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), macy persuaded the to accept the Nu- best of it. We have shut down six older nu- for example, imposed guidelines that re- clear Cooperation Agreement and waive the clear power plants, and you can make the quired purchasing countries to contribute guidelines, making it a clean exemption, case that because of insuf½cient safety fea- gdp enr 1 percent of their for, say, Millennium although the question of was not spe- tures, this was not by nature a wrong deci- Development Goals, the move would anger ci½cally referred to at that time. sion. We had an overhanging base-load oil-purchasing nations. Arguably, exports of India now feels that it is not accountable capacity, and we secretly buy a small amount nuclear weapon components are different to the June 2011 guidelines, and whether the of nuclear electricity from our French because they are weapons of mass destruc- guidelines apply to India has now become a friends to make up for the loss (though that tion; but under the Wassenaar Arrangement signi½cant and unresolved controversy. A is a temporary measure). There are plans to

16 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 build more natural gas base-load plants and Question Question to meet our Kyoto goals by phasing out oil What is the U.S. position, in the context of and coal from our home heating supply, and The Additional Protocol was adopted by iaea the nsg, on India and exemption from the those efforts have been rapidly progressing. consensus by the membership of the some years ago. It was negotiated in re- new guidelines? If you drive through any lower Franconian iaea village, you will see about half the houses sponse to revelations that the did not Jayantha Dhanapala plastered with solar cells, and that is impres- have the capacity to regulate all exports. The iaea has said that it needs the Additional sive. I think that our neighbors to the east During his visit to India last year, President Protocol in order to carry out its mission. will suffer from marginally higher electricity Obama said he would support India’s join- Rather than the North, or the United States, prices in the short term because we demand ing the nsg. But my impression is that the or any other nation imposing controls, it is some imports, but that effect will not last. United States has not committed itself to a the iaea saying, we need this tool in order It was good to have some nuclear energy position on whether the June guidelines will to carry out our vital safeguards mission. for the base load, but Germany typically be speci½cally applicable to India. The issue Why is this seen as such a terrible thing in completes the big industrial projects it takes has been kept very vague. In India, of½cials light of sensitive technologies? on. I think that we will face some dif½culties, have repeatedly remarked that they believe but only temporarily. the clean exemption also exempted them Jayantha Dhanapala from any restrictions on the enr technol- iaea ogy issue. Question When the adopted the Additional Pro- tocol after a long process of negotiation, Would it be possible to negotiate a conven- signing it was voluntary. It was never made © 2012 by Scott D. Sagan, Harald Müller, tion on export control to replace the nsg, mandatory, and that is the spirit in which it Noramly bin Muslim, Olli Heinonen, and thereby addressing the perception that the was accepted. In fact, a large number of non- Jayantha Dhanapala, respectively nsg is a cartel while still achieving control aligned countries signed the Additional Pro- of sensitive technology and mitigating the tocol. As a voluntary measure, it entailed To view or listen to the presentations, risk that it could spread outside legitimate cooperation. But a mandatory requirement visit http://www.amacad.org/events/ ends? to have the Additional Protocol signed as a nuclearFuture/nuclearFutureStanford condition for importing certain technolo- .aspx. Jayantha Dhanapala gies raises questions about the npt’s asym- metrical allocation of obligations. The nu- I think that an attempt to negotiate such an clear weapon states get off scot-free, while agreement would be seen as a good faith ef- the non-nuclear weapon states are subjected fort to bridge the current gap between the to safeguards under Article iii, based on the exporters and the importers. If such an likelihood of diverting peaceful uses of nu- agreement made clear that dual-use tech- clear energy to nonpeaceful uses. And yet nologies require an additional set of precau- Article iv states that the peaceful uses of nu- tions to be taken, as the Additional Protocol clear energy are an inalienable right. There does with iaea safeguards, then I think the is a fundamental contradiction, and unless developing countries would feel that they there is further progress in the realization of are participating in a multilateral effort, one Article vi (which has been, in the view of that has nonproliferation as its objective but developing countries, underlined by the In- also does not act as a brake on their develop- ternational Court of Justice advisory opin- ment. If cooperative arrangements such as ion), the asymmetry of the treaty cannot be abacc are now being exempted, regional further extended. The voluntary nature of arrangements, for example, within asean, the agreement will continue to be the pri- could also be taken into account within the mary aspect of the Additional Protocol that nuclear-weapon-free zones that mainly exist the nonaligned countries would like to see in developing countries. Then an agreement preserved. could be built on multilateral consensus rather than an arbitrary North/South divide.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 17 WikiLeaks and the First Amendment

n November 12, 2011, at a meeting sponsored by the Academy in col- laboration with the Chicago Humanities Festival, University of OChicago law professor Geoffrey R. Stone moderated a conversation with journalist Judith Miller, Judge Richard A. Posner, and author Gabriel Schoenfeld about the balance between freedom of the press and national se- curity. Each panelist offered his or her perspective on bridging legal and ethical issues. Together they attempted to address the critical question at the heart of the WikiLeaks issue: what is the balance between the secrecy a government must maintain and the transparency a healthy democracy requires? The panel discussion served as the Academy’s 1978th Stated Meeting. The following is an edited transcript of the discussion.

“We classify a great deal of material that in fact need not be kept secret. This state of affairs breeds cynicism about the whole enterprise of government secrecy. To have a more effective, credible classi½cation system, we must eliminate a vast amount of classi½cation that currently exists. But that still leaves the question: What should be classi½ed?” –Geoffrey R. Stone Edward H. Levi Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago Law School

18 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 leased cables contained a great deal of in- Our ½rst speaker is Judith Miller, an au- nocuous and uninteresting information, thor and Pulitzer Prize-winning investiga- some of the intelligence turned out to be en- tive reporter. She worked for The New York lightening and helpful to public understand- Times from 1997 to 2005 and is now an Ad- ing, while some of it proved to be harmful to junct Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the national interest. a Contributing Editor of its magazine, City In an example of the latter, the American Journal. Since 2008, she has been a commen- ambassador to Mexico was forced to resign tator for Fox News, speaking on terrorism under Mexican pressure after WikiLeaks and other national security issues, and on disclosed a cable to the State Department in the need to strike the balance between pro- which the ambassador said that the Mexican tecting both national security and civil lib- Army had been risk averse in going after erties in a post-9/11 world. Prior to leaving drug traf½ckers. In another example, the The New York Times in November 2005, Judy Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, an opponent spent eighty-seven days in jail to defend a re- of the despot Robert Mugabe, is now under porter’s right to protect con½dential sources

In 2010 and early 2011, WikiLeaks published 77,000 classified State Department cables. Even though the released cables contained a great deal of innocuous Geoffrey R. Stone and uninteresting information, some of the intelligence turned out to be enlightening and helpful to public Geoffrey R. Stone is the Edward H. Levi Distin- guished Service Professor at the University of understanding, while some of it proved to be harmful Chicago Law School. He has been a Fellow of the to the national interest. American Academy since 1990. investigation for treason because one of the in the controversy over cia operative Valerie ikiLeaks is an international, nonpro½t classi½ed cables released by WikiLeaks re- Plame’s leaked identity. That year, she re- Worganization that publishes submis- ported a statement that he had made to the ceived the Society of Professional Journal- sions of private, secret, and classi½ed mate- U.S. ambassador suggesting that the United ists’ First Amendment Award for her pro- rials from con½dential sources, news leaks, States should continue its sanctions against tection of sources. Judy has written four and whistle-blowers. It was launched in his country. books, including Germs: Biological Weapons 2006 by Julian Assange, an Australian Inter- WikiLeaks received the State Department and America’s Secret War, God has Ninety-Nine net activist. In 2010, WikiLeaks published cables in a data dump from Private Bradley Names, which explores the spread of Islamic secret footage of a 2007 American helicopter Manning, who had access to the cables extremism, and Saddam Hussein and the Crisis attack in Baghdad that killed several Iraqi through his job in the Pentagon. Manning is in the Gulf. journalists. Later that year and in early 2011, currently being held in military custody at Our second speaker, Judge Richard A. it published some 480,000 previously secret Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, and the U.S. gov- Posner, is the most influential legal thinker documents on the wars in Afghanistan and ernment is investigating Assange and other of the past half-century. Both as a judge on Iraq, 779 secret ½les relating to prisoners persons associated with WikiLeaks to deter- the U.S. Court of Appeals and as a scholar at detained at Guantánamo Bay, and 77,000 mine whether they can be criminally prose- the University of Chicago, Dick has repeat- classi½ed State Department cables. It was cuted consistent with the First Amendment edly changed the way people think. He has the State Department cables that created a to the U.S. Constitution. All this raises inter- published more scholarly books than Shake- ½restorm, and although WikiLeaks made esting issues, and I would like to turn the speare published plays. Several of them are some effort to redact the most dangerous or program over to our three experts, each of directly relevant to today’s program, includ- harmful information in the cables, critics say whom will speak on whatever facet of this ing Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Re- it did so recklessly. Thus, even though the re- controversy he or she ½nds noteworthy. form in the Wake of 9/11, Not A Suicide Pact: The

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 19 wikileaks and the first amendment

Constitution in a Time of National Emergency, of the Espionage Act for doing what most of Uncertain Shield: The U.S. Intelligence System in us do in different ways, shapes, and forms the Throes of Reform, and Catastrophe: Risk and every day. I want to address the climate in Response. To give you a sense of the extraor- which journalists are now operating to illus- dinary breadth of Dick’s mind, I will men- trate why I feel as strongly as I do about a tion some of the other books that he has man whom I personally ½nd obnoxious. published: The Crisis of Capitalist Democracy, Many of us were very optimistic that press Sex and Reason, The Essential Holmes, The Prob- freedom would expand back in 2008 when lematics of Moral and Legal Theory, The Eco- presidential candidate Barack Obama prom- nomics of Justice, How Judges Think, and Law ised to increase transparency and reduce and Literature–to say nothing of his books on government secrecy. Unfortunately, and per- antitrust, the Clinton impeachment, Bush v. haps this comes with the territory, Presi- Gore, and a host of other topics. dent Obama has continued a trend toward Our third speaker, Gabriel Schoenfeld, is greater government secrecy, even compared a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and to previous administrations. According to the author, most recently, of Necessary Secrets: the Information Security Oversight Of½ce, National Security, the Media, and the Rule of the federal agency that provides oversight of Law. Gabe writes frequently on national se- the government’s classi½cation system, the curity and intelligence issues for The Wall annual cost of classi½cation has risen to Street Journal and The Weekly Standard, and his more than $10.7 billion–crossing the $10 op-eds, book reviews, and articles appear billion threshold for the ½rst time–because regularly in publications such as The New many government decisions that used to be York Times, The Washington Post, Los Angeles Judith Miller unclassi½ed are now being classi½ed as se- Times, The New Republic, The Atlantic Monthly, Judith Miller is an investigative journalist, for- cret. There were approximately 224,000 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and Der Spiegel. merly of “The New York Times.” She is an Adjunct classi½ed documents in 2010, which is a From 1994 to 2008, Gabe served as Senior 22 percent increase from 2009. Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Con- Editor of Commentary, and before that he Freedom of Information Act requests are tributing Editor of its magazine, “City Journal.” was a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strate- also increasing in response to growing gov- gic and International Studies and served as She is also a commentator for Fox News. ernment secrecy. There were more than a a staff member for Senator Daniel Patrick half-million requests in 2010, or 40,000 more Moynihan. Currently, Gabe is on leave from n 2005, I spent the summer at the Alexan- than there were in 2009; but our govern- the Hudson Institute and serves as a Senior Idria Detention Center outside of Wash- ment bureaucracy responded to 12,400 fewer Advisor to the Romney for President Cam- ington. I could tell you that I went for the requests than in the previous year. So more paign, although he speaks today in his indi- food, and that I was misled. I actually went requests are being made, and fewer of them vidual capacity. to protect a source, who had not given me are being processed. permission, or so I thought, to disclose his It gets worse: this administration has in- identity. I was determined to stay in jail until voked the state secrets privilege more than either I obtained a waiver that would enable any other in modern times, including Presi- me to identify him or the government re- dent Bush’s administration, rather than re- lented. Fortunately, after eighty-seven days, spond to requests for classi½ed information. I obtained the waiver. In the meantime, I President Obama has applied the privilege learned a lot about jail, and about journal- with respect to National Security Agency ism, and I became even more of a fanatic surveillance, illegal wiretapping, and other about the need for journalists to protect activities, such as extraordinary rendition sources. and assassination. A claim of state secrets That is what is at stake since Julian As- privilege shuts down litigation; it shuts sange and WikiLeaks are being hounded, down civil challenges. persecuted, and threatened with violations

20 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Despite his campaign promise to protect me if that were so. But Assange describes of this information would be available if whistle-blowers, Obama has one of the himself as a journalist and WikiLeaks as a someone had not decided to talk about worst records in modern times of investigat- nonpro½t media organization, and he claims classi½ed information. So it is not a happy ing, persecuting, and taking judicial action journalistic and ethical privileges. You may task, but an essential one, that I rise to de- against government whistle-blowers. The not agree with his methods, but he is respon- fend Julian Assange and WikiLeaks. I hope president is now threatening to use the 1917 sible for releasing more information about that you will support me because, however Espionage Act against people who not only how our government works–much of it unpopular journalists may be, a government leak but publish information. Your right to helpful to public understanding and some of without restraint, and without transparency, know depends a lot on investigative journal- it dangerous–than any other single journal- is dangerous. ists, which means that people like me have istic organization in the country. The fact is,

This administration has invoked the state secrets privilege more than any other in modern times rather than respond to requests for classified information. A claim of state secrets privilege shuts down litiga- tion; it shuts down civil challenges. to be willing to go to jail to protect sources. almost every major publication in this coun- Five years after I went to jail, Congress still try cooperated with Assange, in one way or has not passed the legislation that Mr. another, to help him get the information he Obama, as both a senator and a presidential had obtained out. So if he is vulnerable, then candidate, promised to enact to protect jour- we all are vulnerable, and if he can be taken nalists who refuse to disclose sources to to court and arrested for violating the Espi- grand juries. Forty-nine states in this coun- onage Act when he is not even an American try have state statutes, but we lack a federal citizen, then no American journalist is safe. statute. And when national security infor- I would prefer to think of Assange as an- mation is at issue, most of the cases that other category of journalist, but that is not challenge our right to keep these sources se- possible in the Internet age. After all, the cret are considered in federal courts. First Amendment was enacted to protect not We desperately need this legislation. In the big, rich, powerful organizations that the wake of the WikiLeaks investigation, can afford to ½ght legal cases, but the lone President Obama has done nothing to help pamphleteer. Assange is the lone pamphle- it through the Senate. It passed in the House teer of the Internet era. Bill Keller, the for- but is dead in the water in the Senate, thanks mer executive editor of The New York Times, to Julian Assange and the president’s lack of said that it was hard to conceive of a prose- enthusiasm for the legislation. Here, I might cution against Julian Assange that would not point to a June 2011 column that Geof Stone, enable a stretching of the law that could be our distinguished moderator, wrote for The used against The New York Times as well. New York Times on the difference between Think about what we know, and how we what President Obama has done and what know it, whether through Bob Woodward he promised in the area of transparency. and his insightful books, which are ½lled Some people will tell you that Julian As- with classi½ed information, or my humble sange is not a journalist, that he does not efforts to inform Americans about biological perform like or characterize himself as a weapons and the secret bio-defense research journalist. It would be easier for people like that our country conducted for years. None

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 21 wikileaks and the first amendment

on civilian casualties, such as the U.S. heli- of the leaks. Clearly, we want to protect the copter attack in Baghdad that Geof men- safety of individuals, and WikiLeaks appar- tioned. Everyone knows that abuses happen ently made some effort to shield the identi- frequently in war, and that many civilians ties of persons who might be endangered by are killed. Before the leaks, the prevalence of the revelation. That is one important inter- civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan est, and there are also some military secrets was no secret. The leaks show that while the about plans, weapons design, and capabili- number of casualties was somewhat higher ties that we need to keep secret if we can. But than people had believed, the situation was these categories of intelligence make up a very not nearly so bad as it could have been. As- small fraction of all classi½ed information. suming that WikiLeaks has access to all that Overclassi½cation is extraordinarily ram- we know about civilian casualties in these pant, and because it is a response to com- wars, the leaks reveal that they were some- pelling bureaucratic motivations–one being what worse than they had been represented to avoid embarrassment–I do not think to be, but not greatly so. anything can be done about it. Second, class- The diplomatic leaks are also valuable in i½cation increases bureaucrats’ sense of self- the sense that they tell foreign governments importance. Everyone wants to be privy to what we actually think but cannot say, and secrets, for if you know a lot of things that that is very useful. U.S. criticism of the Mex- other people do not know, it makes you feel ican Army’s handling of the war on drugs, important. But most signi½cant, though which Geof mentioned, is a good example. I think you have to work in government to Certainly, there are sacri½cial lambs when understand this, is that agencies have com- Richard A. Posner diplomatic communications are published: pelling incentives to conceal information Richard A. Posner has been a Judge on the U.S. the Mexican ambassador was one; so are the from other agencies. Turf warfare is pervasive Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit since generals who have been ½red because they in government because government agen- said unpleasant things about Pakistan. But cies cannot sell turf. In private enterprise, if, 1981, serving as Chief Judge of the court from the fact that the Mexican government say, a competitor wants your patents, you 1993 to 2000. He is also a Senior Lecturer at the knows what we think about its Army, and can sell them to him. But you cannot sell turf University of Chicago Law School. He has been that Pakistan knows what we think about its if you are a government bureaucrat; you can a Fellow of the American Academy since 1982. relations to the Taliban and to China, is all only lose turf, which means suffering un- to our advantage. The United States is still compensated loss. When I was Chief Judge n contrast with my fellow panelists, I do very powerful, and having these foreign gov- of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Inot think that the disclosure of classi½ed ernments know that we know that they are Circuit, I had a vicious battle with the Chief information has ever caused signi½cant undermining our interests is useful for us. Judge of the District Court because I wanted harm to American foreign policy or national One could make an analogy to mutual espi- access to one of the courtrooms on “his” security objectives. Indeed, in many cases, it onage during the Cold War, in which our floor of the courthouse. He did not want the has helped attain those objectives. On the spying on the Soviet Union and their spying Court of Appeals on that floor, because if he other hand, I do not think that the govern- on us reduced the likelihood of actual war. permitted that encroachment on his turf, ment’s efforts to stifle revelation of classi½ed What we said publicly about our intentions where would the process stop? His court material are consequential. By my estimation, and capabilities, and vice versa, had no cred- could (½guratively speaking) end up out on in the course of about four years WikiLeaks ibility; but when each country found out the street. At one point, as we were ½ghting has published at least 750,000 documents, what the other’s real intentions and capabil- over this absurdity, he said to me, “Look, if many of which are U.S. classi½ed. What has ities were, both could make decisions on the the newspapers got hold of this, it would be been the harm to American foreign policy or basis of accurate information, and not blun- an embarrassment.” I said, “Let it happen; national security? I think there has actually der into war because of misunderstanding– I’m not backing down.” Eventually, we man- been a net bene½t. Consider, for example, a common precipitant of wars. aged to compromise. that many of the leaked documents reveal The situation is different in the second ex- Geof mentioned some of my academic abuses perpetrated by U.S. or allied military ample that Geof gave, regarding the fellow work on national security intelligence, forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. They focus in Zimbabwe who was endangered because which allowed me to meet a lot of people in

22 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 There is government information, involving not only you want to add another hole for some cate- gory of national security secrets, that’s ½ne. identities of people who might be in danger but also What we call freedom of speech is some- information that would actually be valuable to an thing the Supreme Court has developed over two hundred years of purportedly interpret- enemy to know, that ought to be kept secret, but it ing a sentence in an eighteenth-century doc- ument. If we need to protect secrets, there is makes up only a very small percentage of all classi- no constitutional impediment to doing so. fied documents. But the problem of overclassi½cation, which makes efforts to protect secrets look ridicu- various agencies. I was once driven to an security polygraph test designed to weed out lous, is deeply embedded in the way govern- agency to give a Law Day talk, and the staff security risks. One such test is a “lifestyle” ments–not only our own–operate. And I member escorting me mentioned that the polygraph test, which tries to embarrass the do not think anything can be done about it. director of the agency would be happy to an- subject by asking questions about personal swer any questions I might have. When I topics, such as sex. You, the holder of the told her that I did not have a security clear- wanted information, may deny the agent ac- ance, she said that it didn’t matter; because cess to your databases if his top-secret clear- I was a judge, they would tell me anything. ance is not based on a lifestyle polygraph test When I arrived, they gave me a tour and in but merely on a “national security” top- the course of it showed me several classi½ed secret clearance, in which case you will in- documents. What was interesting was that stead offer to look through your ½les for there was no reason why most of those doc- anything of interest, which you will put on a uments should have been classi½ed. But not computer disk for him. But you will not let all. One document was classi½ed because it that person into your agency’s system. Such was a list of U.S. sites ranked from “most practices are endemic to the government; likely” to “least likely” to be the target of that will not change. But to some extent, a terrorist attack. That is a document you there are genuine secrets in the sense of in- would not want terrorists to access; in- formation that we need to keep secret in evitably, they would choose to attack the order to protect people or legitimate needs least-protected site, the one at the bottom of of national security. the list. So there is government information, The First Amendment as interpreted by involving not only identities of people who the courts does not forbid overclassi½cation might be in danger but also information that as such. I do not want to seem cynical, but would actually be valuable to an enemy to there are many exceptions to free speech, know, that ought to be kept secret, but it such as laws against libel and slander and the makes up only a very small percentage of all right to keep medical records private. The classi½ed documents. deliberations of judges and juries are an ex- I’ll add one more anecdote to illustrate the ample of what government is permitted to lengths to which government agencies will keep secret merely or mainly to avoid em- go in order to protect secret information. barrassment. There are further court-made Suppose you work for one of the twenty or First Amendment exceptions for military se- so U.S. national security agencies, and that crets, trade secrets, misleading advertising, someone from another agency wants access product disparagement, copyright infringe- to information in one of your databases that ment, plagiarism, conspiracy, child pornog- is germane to his agency’s duties. The infor- raphy, solicitations for crime, harassment mation is classi½ed as top secret, so the agent and bullying, and campaign contributions presents his top-secret clearance. That top- when made to the politicians themselves. So secret clearance must be based on a national it’s a Swiss cheese, the First Amendment; if

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 23 wikileaks and the first amendment

weapons or the formulas for producing killed. Thus, the comint Act makes it a aerosolized anthrax. crime to publish classi½ed information per- But equally at stake is the character of our taining to communications intelligence; the democracy. We live in an open society in Atomic Energy Act makes it a crime to pub- which secrecy is antithetical to the demo- lish classi½ed information pertaining to the cratic ideal. Secrecy can be used as a cover design of nuclear weapons; and the Intelli- for corruption and wrongdoing. We depend gence Identities Protection Act makes it a on a free press to provide us with informa- crime to disclose the identities of under- tion about what our government is doing in cover cia agents. Although these laws are in our name, including some of the things it is tension with the First Amendment, no court doing in secret. Indeed, much of what we has ever struck them down. They were read in the newspapers about foreign affairs passed because the American people, act- We live in an open society in which secrecy is anti- thetical to the democratic ideal. Secrecy can be used as a cover for corruption and wrongdoing. We depend on a free press to provide us with information about what our government is doing in our name, including Gabriel Schoenfeld some of the things it is doing in secret. Gabriel Schoenfeld is a Senior Fellow (on leave) is based on reporting about state secrets. A ing through their elected representatives, at the Hudson Institute and a Resident Scholar (on study by the Senate Intelligence Committee sought to protect themselves against any- counted 147 separate disclosures of classi½ed leave) at the Witherspoon Institute. He is a Senior one, including journalists, who would dis- information that made their way into the na- close government secrets to do us harm. Advisor to the Romney for President Campaign. tion’s top six newspapers in one six-month Valid laws that would punish the press for period alone. The regular publication of se- publishing state secrets are on the books. he gravity of the issue of national secu- crets is part of the American system, and Does the existence of such laws mean that rity secrecy cannot be overstated. At T that is the way it ought to be. But even as we journalists should be prosecuted every time stake, and I will make a different argument want the press to report on secrets, it must they publish a state secret? Absolutely not. than my colleagues, is the personal safety of do so under the rule of law. That is, the That would be extremely foolish. It is widely all Americans. Osama bin Laden may be press–which certainly includes WikiLeaks recognized, as my colleagues have pointed dead, but Islamic radicals remain deter- –must be vulnerable to prosecution when it out, that if the U.S. government uses the se- mined to strike the United States. Many of violates the laws governing secrecy. The crecy stamp promiscuously, it marks many our young men and women are at war in First Amendment states that Congress shall items secret that should not be. The issue is Afghanistan and other battle½elds abroad, pass no law abridging the freedom of speech not whether the press should always be pros- and secrecy is often vital to the preservation or of the press, and Judge Posner has pointed ecuted for publishing secrets. In almost all of their lives. To keep our country secure, to all the exceptions to that rule: for exam- cases, it should not be. I myself published our government generates a great many se- ple, we cannot publish false advertising, and classi½ed information when I was an editor crets of many different kinds. We cannot we are forbidden to yell “Fire!” in a crowded at Commentary magazine, and I would do so publicize, among other things, all the intel- theater. again. The real question before us is whether ligence methods by which we are tracking Congress has also passed laws that punish the press can be prosecuted when it pub- terrorists. We cannot reveal the vulnerabili- the publication of state secrets, and it has lishes secrets that place the country in danger. ties of our bridges, tunnels, and buildings. done so for the very same reason that we are That is the question raised by WikiLeaks. We have an absolute duty to keep secret in- prohibited from yelling “Fire!” when there Such danger is not purely hypothetical. formation such as the blueprints for nuclear is no ½re: this type of speech can get people Not everyone with access to a printing press,

24 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 or to the Internet, will always behave re- ½eld? Should the press be free to reveal the Discussion sponsibly. There is no shortage of examples identities of undercover cia operatives? Is of real harm being done to our country there any person in this room who believes Geoffrey Stone through the disclosure or publication of that the press should be free to publish the leaks. During World War II–to take a famous technical secrets of weapons of mass de- There is a general consensus among our pan- case pertaining to this city–the Chicago Trib- struction, or the recipe for something like elists that if classi½cation is meant to prohibit une, under the auspices of Colonel Robert aerosolized anthrax? the disclosure or publication of information McCormick, published a story suggesting The key question is, who gets to decide? that must be kept secret for the sake of na- that the United States had broken Japanese In a democracy, the people get to decide, and tional security, then we vastly overclassify. naval codes. If Japan had acted on that story what the American people have decided, act- For the different reasons that have been sug- and changed its codes, the United States ing through laws passed by their elected rep- gested, we classify a great deal of material that would have lost the war: we would have been resentatives, is that the publication of cer- in fact need not be kept secret, information deprived of a critical window into Japanese tain kinds of secrets warrants prosecution. that even people like Gabe have published, planning, without which thousands, if not They have decided, in other words, that the despite the fact that it is classi½ed and pub- tens of thousands, of American servicemen First Amendment is not a suicide pact. lishing it is illegal. This state of affairs breeds would have lost their lives. In 1973, a maga- cynicism about the whole enterprise of gov- zine called Counterspy began to publish the ernment secrecy. To have a more effective, names of hundreds of cia of½cers around credible classi½cation system, we must elim- the world. In 1975, one of those of½cers, inate a vast amount of classi½cation that cur- Richard Welch, was assassinated by Greek rently exists. But that still leaves the question: terrorists–just after Counterspy had outed What should be classi½ed? him as the cia station chief in Greece. In Gabe argues that information that would 2006, The New York Times chose to reveal the be harmful to national security should be workings of a counterterrorism program that classi½ed, that anyone who discloses it tracked the movement of al-Qaeda funds. should be punished, and that anyone who The program was lawful, operating under publishes it should be punished. Gabe, I valid warrants, and by several accounts, the found it interesting that you rely on story caused one of our principal sources of Holmes’s hypothetical cry of “Fire!” in a al-Qaeda-related intelligence to dry up. crowded theater. Holmes held that it was Now we have WikiLeaks. In the name of punishable falsely to yell “Fire!” If the call of transparency, WikiLeaks has indiscrimi- “Fire!” is truthful, certainly we would not nately dumped thousands of, in many cases, punish it. entirely unredacted secret documents onto The reason Holmes emphasized the false the Internet. Many of them are innocuous. cry was to highlight situations in which the Some clearly help us better understand our speech itself was valueless. If the speech is country’s role in the world, but others do se- true, the problem is completely different. rious harm. One WikiLeaks document de- Thus, it is not at all clear that Holmes’s ex- scribed the jamming devices employed by ample supports punishing speech merely be- American soldiers in Iraq to scramble the cause it causes harm. The value of the speech signals used by insurgents to detonate road- matters as well. side bombs from a remote location. The document gave speci½c information about Gabriel Schoenfeld how the jammers functioned, what their rate Regarding national security secrecy and the of power was, and which frequencies they question of harm, let’s take an example that blocked. Is there any reasonable person who I think we can all agree on: that the publica- believes that it should be legal to publish the tion of the identities of undercover cia secret countermeasures our soldiers use to of½cers can cause harm to those people. In- keep from getting blown up on the battle- deed, Congress acted to make it illegal to publish those names.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 25 wikileaks and the first amendment

Judith Miller ways every day, but we read about only the analysis would be fruitless. Would the court cases that go to court or incite public ½ght- balance value against harm on a case-by- I would argue against Gabe’s claim that ing. On a weekly basis, a reporter from The case basis? The dilemma can be explained there are cases in which we should punish New York Times, The Washington Post, or Fox thus: on the one hand, like Britain, we could those who publish classi½ed information. News calls the White House and says, “We have an Of½cial Secrets Act, making it a First, in terms of our legal history (and here are going to publish a story that is really crime to reveal classi½ed information. But I am venturing into unsafe territory because going to make you angry”–or, as Judge Pos- because of the vast overclassi½cation, that I am not a lawyer, which would make me ner put it, “embarrassed”–“and I would like type of policy would be overly severe. On the even more unpopular than being a journal- your comment.” The White House then says, other hand, that the law could de½ne acts as ist), since 9/11, we have seen the creation of “Oh no you don’t. Let’s talk about this.” criminal on the basis of some concept of sixty new categories of classi½ed informa- These discussions give the White House an harm. Many national security laws have this tion. If you think that we live in a more open opportunity to make the case that the publi- feature, but it is very dif½cult for the govern- and transparent society than we did before cation of certain information would jeop- ment to prosecute dangerous leaks, even 9/11, you are wrong. ardize national security. Most often, papers when it has a strong case, because explaining Second, with regard to Julian Assange and do not publish contested information; they to a jury the harm that the leak caused may WikiLeaks, punishing a journalist for pub- withhold information, as The New York Times require disclosing secrets. So that option lishing information would be a radical new has done again and again. This is the system does not work either. step. When the government moved to stop that we have devised to avoid prosecuting Our society has many problems that can- not be solved. One of them is the struggle The real question before us is whether the press can between the bureaucrats who are desper- ately trying to keep secrets and the hackers, be prosecuted when it publishes secrets that place the journalists, the media, YouTube, and the country in danger. That is the question raised by everyone else who is trying to reveal secrets. I think that the current situation is the best WikiLeaks. we can hope for. Clearly, we want to protect the physical safety of people and could per- The New York Times from publishing the Pen- journalists for doing our jobs: that is, letting haps de½ne some narrow category of pun- tagon Papers, the Supreme Court weighed you know what is going on in your govern- ishable activity, such as a disclosure that the damage to national security of publish- ment, leaking what the government wants endangers lives. But given the varying incen- ing the classi½ed information against the in- you to know and withholding what it doesn’t. tives of the many parties involved in the fringement on the First Amendment of struggle over secrecy versus disclosure, I do preventing its publication. Justice Stewart Richard Posner not think much progress can be made on held that in order to deny The Times the right that front, and as I said, I do not think it is all to publish the information, the government I would like to make two points. First, I want that important. would have to prove that the disclosure would to take issue with Judith’s statement that cause direct, immediate, and irreparable more documents are being classi½ed. While Geoffrey Stone damage to our nation or its people. Both the I am sure this is true, consider that the gov- Justice Department and the Pentagon have ernment is growing in size, and that publi- What would you do with Gabe’s hypotheti- conducted studies of the damage that Julian cation is growing as well. Are more docu- cal scenario? Assange and WikiLeaks have done to our na- ments being classi½ed as a percentage of all tional security. Neither has disclosed the re- government documents, or is a larger gov- Richard Posner sults of those studies. Why? Perhaps they ernment simply creating more documents, cannot prove or have not been willing to classi½ed and unclassi½ed alike? Further, Gabe gave the example of American troops make a case that such damage has occurred. what if leaks are increasing at a faster rate being endangered by revelations about their That should give us pause as we consider than classi½cation? jamming equipment. That seems to me a criminalizing the publication of secret infor- Second, Geof said that the value of infor- clear endangerment of human lives, so I mation. mation must be weighed against the harm have no objection to punishing the party re- Finally, news organizations and the gov- that leaking it would do to national security. sponsible for the leak. On the other hand, ernment deal with these issues in informal But attempting to conduct such a formless because lawyers will always struggle to ex-

26 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 pand categories, it is possible to argue in al- Judith Miller Geoffrey Stone most any case that a leak may eventually lead to someone’s losing his life. Judith quoted I think the government decided that it did Let’s address the question of harm done to Justice Stewart’s view that publication of not want to bring the Pentagon Papers case American soldiers. Suppose The New York classi½ed information can be prevented only to court because doing so would have gener- Times reveals that torture has taken place at if the information will cause direct, imme- ated unwanted publicity for the leaked infor- Abu Ghraib, and the government argues that diate harm. But that rationale does not make mation. With regard to the WikiLeaks case, the disclosure will endanger American sol- sense. If the country is to be destroyed by a I have no problem with the government diers by infuriating the enemy and ensuring ticking time bomb in three years if some se- cracking down on Bradley Manning for leak- that captured American soldiers are more cret is revealed, rather than tomorrow, does ing classi½ed information that he took an likely to be tortured in even worse ways. that mean that we can’t prevent the endan- oath not to disclose. I do not think The Wash- Therefore, the government wants to punish gering revelation because the danger is not ington Post should be prosecuted for publish- the disclosure of the fact that Abu Ghraib immediate? The categories that judges try ing it. There is a difference. occurred. According to your theory, Gabe, to impose on this unmanageable material would you have to allow that punishment? are simply inadequate. Gabriel Schoenfeld Gabriel Schoenfeld Gabriel Schoenfeld Judy, the laws are on the books. If you dis- agree with the law, work to change it. Don’t No. We do not have a law that protects that I would also take issue with Judith’s argu- violate it. kind of information. I would be opposed to ment. The Pentagon Papers case came to the such a general law because it would endan- court as a prior-restraint case, not a case of Judith Miller ger our liberties, but I support narrow laws prosecuting The Times after the fact for hav- that protect narrow categories of informa- ing published secret information. Five of the I have been working to change the law for tion. nine justices said that if information had the past ½ve years. Unfortunately, the presi- come to them after the fact, as a prosecution, dent has not upheld the promises he made. Richard Posner rather than as a prior-restraint case, which demands a very strict standard, they would Geoffrey Stone I have a question for Judy. Suppose that it is have considered convicting The Times under May 1944, and The New York Times publishes the Espionage Act. Gabe says that the laws are on the books, but an article reporting that on June 5, the that is not an answer to anything in a world United States and Britain will invade north- Judith Miller governed by constitutional law. The argu- ern France–the event we now know as D- ment is whether the laws on the books are Day. The Americans and the British have But the government did not bring that case constitutional. However cynical one may be been trying to make Germany think that the to court. about how the courts interpret the Constitu- attack will be in Calais, and as a result, the tion, the fact that laws exist is not an adequate Germans have moved their armored divi- Gabriel Schoenfeld answer to whether they are constitutional. sions to Calais. But the attack is to be in Normandy, where the Germans are not I think the country is fortunate never to have Gabriel Schoenfeld expecting them–that is, until The New York had a prosecution in the Pentagon Papers Times exposes their plan. Do you think this case. It would have been very dif½cult for the The Espionage Act itself is problematic. It disclosure would not be punishable? government to bring that case to New York has never been used for prosecuting the City, and the federal district prosecutor de- press, and doing so would raise serious con- Judith Miller clined to do so for that reason. But the stitutional issues. The comint Act, how- Chicago Tribune case is a classic example in ever, is a model of clarity whose statutes I agree that it would be punishable. But if we which a newspaper publisher intent on pub- protect narrow categories of information– think back to the Cuban Missile Crisis, The lishing a story that could kill thousands of precisely the kind that can get lots of people New York Times did exactly what you sug- American servicemen should go to prison. killed. I think that law sets a good course for gested it not do in the hypothetical situation the United States. regarding 1944: it did not publish the infor-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 27 wikileaks and the first amendment

On balance, the press will at times get things wrong. Questions from the Audience The press will occasionally publish what it should not. Question mation at the request of the government. Af- Gabriel Schoenfeld Judith, in a democratic society, to what extent terward, President Kennedy said he wished do you believe it is a journalist’s responsibil- that it had done so. On balance, the press In your case, the public was investigating a ity to report accurate and precise informa- will at times get things wrong. The press crime. tion to the American public? Within that will occasionally publish what it should not. context, to what extent do you believe the For example, I would agree with Gabe that Judith Miller press has relied on information provided by incumbent regimes –the Bush administra- revealing information about how we are Actually, a prosecutor was arguing that he tion in particular? tracking the money of terrorists has been was investigating a leak under a statute that damaging, and I have been following terror- you cited, but the investigation under the In- Judith Miller ists since before it became fashionable. The telligence Agents Identities Act turned into revelation made it harder for the U.S. gov- a perjury investigation. The point is that the In my reporting on national security, most ernment to track that information. How- government is very powerful, and it needs of the people I rely on for information have ever, the government should not make the checks on its power. The press is one of them. jobs requiring them to take polygraph tests decisions about what can and cannot be every six months. They must feel strongly published. Gabriel Schoenfeld about an issue to be willing to talk to me be- cause they know that the ½rst question of Congress has repeatedly declined–that is, Richard Posner every polygraph test is: have you had any the American people have repeatedly de- unauthorized conversations with a journal- There were no Americans endangered by the clined–to enact the kind of statute that you ist? This is a very dif½cult area for a journalist Bay of Pigs invasion, just Cubans. We could favor. have written off those Cubans, and in fact to work in. You try to verify the information you have as best you can. You hope that peo- did. Richard Posner ple who disagree with what you are being Gabriel Schoenfeld Congress is not the American people. told will come forward. You hope they will attach their names to their comments be- We live under a system of laws. The press Gabriel Schoenfeld cause many publications have rules against does not get to decide when it can violate the anonymous sources, as my former publica- law, or when it can observe the law. It is We live in a democracy. Congress represents tion did. This is not science; it is very dif½- obliged to follow the law, unless you are tak- the American people, and that is the best we cult. Everyone gets things wrong. ing the position that the press is engaging in have. Of course, it does not reflect the will of With regard to the weapons of mass de- civil disobedience, which is a noble position. each and every one of us. struction that Iraq ultimately did not possess, my reporting on the issue reflected accurately Judith Miller Richard Posner what the intelligence community believed at the time–at least what the president was told That is what I did. I decided to go to jail be- It often does not represent the will of anyone they believed. Both journalists and the intel- cause the law said that I had to testify before but a handful of special interest groups and ligence community have to do a better job the grand jury, but in my mind, my journal- lobbyists. You have to be realistic about what getting it right. I think that the publication of istic obligation to the source took prece- democracy means. Democracy is a system information like this helps us get it right, and dence. But why invent laws that make it whereby people get to throw out of½cials in that is why I’m still doing it. easier for the government to keep informa- periodic elections. It does not mean that leg- tion from the public, especially information islation reflects the popular will. that the public ought to have? Gabriel Schoenfeld I’m somewhat less cynical about American democracy than you are.

28 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Question Judith Miller an administration that has pledged to be the most transparent in all of American history A few years ago, Prince Harry was sent to As a journalist, I would side with Thomas has somehow become the most Nixonian. ½ght in Afghanistan. The British press em- Jefferson: rather than choose between hav- That is ironic, but the prosecutors have acted bargoed the story, based on a sense that re- ing a government without the press or a press fairly wisely and with restraint in most of the porting it would subject the prince to clear without government, we should have a gov- cases. After all, we have a system that still and present danger. He was then outed by ernment with a free press. It is a balance, and operates after a torrent of leaks. It has very Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report. If you we are still a democracy. We have overcome rarely resulted in prosecutions. had jurisdiction, what would your conclu- many challenges and are safer and freer than sion be? we were before 9/11, though less open. Judith Miller Gabriel Schoenfeld Richard Posner The Washington Post, one of the few papers that can still afford to do investigative reporting, I do not see any special law on the books that The general answer to the question is that which is very expensive (in part because you would protect an American prince, but I criminal statutes are overbroad. They are have to hire so many lawyers) and very dan- would support a law that would protect the vague because of the concern with loop- gerous, tried looking at the issue Judge Posner identities of intelligence agents. We have holes, and an enormous number of cases are raised about whether the government is clas- seen the damage that can result when their left to prosecutorial discretion. I think that sifying more, how many people have top se- names are inadvertently, or purposefully, dis- this state of affairs is inevitable. The insolu- curity clearances, and how many documents closed. The British have their own methods. ble problem is that the amount of classi½ed are classi½ed. After two years of work, The Post An interesting counterpoint to your case information is vastly greater than the could not come up with a ½gure on how much is the story of David Rhode, a New York Times amount that should properly be withheld our country was spending to protect national correspondent who was kidnapped by the from the public. Broad, vague laws are dan- security. It did ½nd, however, that more than Taliban. The Times not only kept this secret gerous because they affect people: even an a million people in this country have top secu- from the public for six months but managed unsuccessful prosecution is very costly, and rity clearances, and they are the ones who do to get every other newspaper and blogger in it creates a lot of anxiety. But narrowly much of the classifying. I think this is a huge the country to keep it secret. It only revealed de½ned laws make it very dif½cult to prose- problem, and I agree with Richard that it does the information when Rhode escaped his cute harmful revelations because it is often not have an obvious solution. captors and made his way to safety. When dif½cult to reveal the reason why a revela- the lives of journalists are on the line, the pa- tion is harmful without disclosing more in- Gabriel Schoenfeld pers are very careful. When the lives of other formation about a secret activity. So I do not Americans are on the line, they are not al- think there is a good solution. We have a There is a bit of conventional wisdom set- ways as careful. multiplicity of laws, and leaks that involve ting in here about overclassi½cation, and electronic transmissions are punished much while I agree that it is rampant, we should more severely than others. It might be pos- not be taking the mushrooming numbers at Question sible to consolidate the laws, make them face value. After 9/11, it became clear that we On the one hand, you can have very broad a little narrower, and somewhat clearer. had to impose secrecy on whole sets of cat- laws that are infrequently enforced, which That’s all I could recommend. egories that we never considered before, in a sense changes the rule of law to the rule, largely regarding technical characteristics of if you will, of men, with prosecutors decid- Gabriel Schoenfeld objects, such as bridges, buildings, and other ing when to enforce laws. On the other civilian structures that we want to protect. We have a system of prosecutorial discre- For all the bureaucratic pressures that Judith hand, you have this “trust us, we’re journal- tion, and prosecutions have been very rare. ists” system, which might be ½ne for The and Judge Posner mentioned, I also agree The Obama administration is the ½rst to em- with Judge Posner: this is not a solvable New York Times and The Washington Post, but ploy the Espionage Act in a rigorous way. today anyone who feels like creating a blog problem. Our search for balance must look Since the Act was passed in 1917, there had in another direction. can claim to be a journalist. Which evil are been a total of three prosecutions before the we going to go with? I don’t see where the Obama administration came to of½ce. Now, middle ground is.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 29 wikileaks and the first amendment

Richard Posner Question Question You are saying that before 9/11, bridges were Do you think it is WikiLeaks’s responsibility What are the panelists’ views on the recent about to fall down, and maybe we knew to control what they publish? spate of state laws that are criminalizing the about it; but now all knowledge about de- videotaping and recording of law enforce- crepit infrastructure is classi½ed? It sounds Judith Miller ment of½cials in public as well as prohibiting like a joke: all of a sudden, someone who publication of such footage, when, in fact, asks about the tunnels under the Hudson Yes, I do, which is one reason why I am very of½cers are able to videotape us and do what River is told that the information is classi½ed unhappy with what Julian Assange has done. they want with it? because of vulnerabilities. If I want to attack, I have interviewed embassy people and I’ll attack one of these classi½ed civilian worked with many of the dissidents whose Judith Miller structures. This is an absurd world. identities were compromised by what he has done, especially the last tranche of disclo- We have three thousand cameras in lower Geoffrey Stone sures that were published without any vet- Manhattan alone, so you can no longer ting. That is irresponsible journalism, but do assume that when you walk through the The idea that this is an insoluble problem I think that he should be punished under the streets of New York, you are not being pho- is not helpful. There is a solution; whether Espionage Act for it? No, I don’t. I think re- tographed, surveilled, or monitored. I do not it is a good one or a bad one is the problem. sponsible news organizations should refrain like these new laws. If we are living in a sur- If we do nothing, the solution will be wild from using information that would compro- veillance society, surveillance has to work overclassi½cation, arbitrary prosecutions mise the safety of dissidents and other peo- both ways, and the media should be the peo- of individuals who have embarrassed the ple whom we should protect. ple’s advocate and get information out. administration, punishment of whistle- blowers, and imprisonment of reporters, Richard Posner © 2012 by Geoffrey R. Stone, Judith Miller, whenever it is convenient for any particular Richard A. Posner, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, What if they are irresponsible? Then there administration to do so. If that is not an ac- respectively ceptable solution, we must ½nd a better one. is no sanction, on your view. Judith Miller To view or listen to the presentations, visit http://www.amacad.org/events/ Question Then don’t buy their papers, don’t advertise WikiLeaks. What kinds of carrots and sticks could bring in their journals, or shut them down. Wiki- the amount of material that is classi½ed Leaks has been shut down, and Julian As- down to a reasonable, workable level? What sange is facing other criminal proceedings in can we do to change things? Sweden. We have solved that problem for the moment, but there will eventually be an- Gabriel Schoenfeld other Julian Assange, another WikiLeaks. Each news organization will have to make a A number of reforms have been advanced, judgment about what it feels is responsible such as limiting the number of people who reporting. That is the way the system works. have access to the classi½cation stamp and making them write explanations of why they are classifying particular pieces of informa- tion. These strategies have all been tried over the years, but bureaucracy has a way of over- coming everything and ½nding new ways to get around these procedures because there are many incentives to classify information. If you get something wrong, you make it pub- lic, and it’s embarrassing–there goes your job, your promotion, your bene½ts. Or if peo- ple get killed, it’s even worse.

30 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 The Future of the American Military

The place of the military in the public consciousness has changed dramatically over time. In a Gallup poll from 2011 that measured the public’s con½dence in sixteen major institutions, the military ranked higher than any other institution, with 78 percent of respondents stating their respect for and con½dence in the armed forces. On December 7, 2011–the seventieth anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor–the Academy convened a panel of scholars at Stanford University to discuss the military and international relations. The following is an edited transcript of the discussion, which served as the Academy’s 1979th Stated Meeting.

Introduction earl Harbor Day is a sad but highly appro- is one of the university’s best-known profes- Ppriate day for the topic of this panel. It is sors. He has a long history of writing on mil- a day reminding us that there are times and itary topics, beginning thirty years ago with circumstances when the nation’s very exis- his book Over Here: The First World War and tence depends on its national defense and on American Society and including his Pulitzer the willingness of members of the armed Prize-winning book, Freedom from Fear. He is forces to stand in harm’s way to defend our a Fellow of the American Academy. country. That fateful day led the United I ½rst became aware of David’s writing on States into a war that touched the lives of this topic during a talk he gave at Stanford. every American. I certainly remember my In his remarks, he pointed out that only parents talking about what life was like dur- 2.6 percent of the enlisted personnel in the

Pearl Harbor Day reminds us that there are times and circumstances when the nation’s very existence de- pends on its national defense and on the willingness of members of the armed forces to stand in harm’s way to defend our country. John L. Hennessy ing that war. It called on every family to make armed forces at that time had a college edu- John L. Hennessy is President of Stanford Uni- a sacri½ce, and while there have been other cation, compared to 32 percent of all men versity. He has been a Fellow of the American wars and battles in the interim, we are indeed in the general population of the same age Academy since 1995, and serves as a member of fortunate that we have never had to face a sit- cohort. He also noted that of 535 members of the Academy’s Commission on the Humanities uation as demanding and as traumatizing as Congress and the Senate, just ten had chil- and Social Sciences. the one we faced seventy years ago today. dren serving in the military. With David’s Our distinguished panel, whose expertise views in mind, in Spring 2011 I asked him, ranges from military experience to history, together with our second panelist, Secretary will discuss the changing relationship be- William Perry, to make the opening presen- tween the military and civilian society. tation to our faculty senate as we reconsid- David Kennedy, the Donald J. McLachlan ered whether to reestablish the rotc pro- Professor of History, Emeritus, at Stanford, gram at Stanford.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 31 the future of the american military

Secretary Perry is well known for his con- relationship between military institutions tributions to government, having served in and civil society. the Department of Defense in a number of The importance of that relationship was roles, culminating with his leadership as driven home to me in a vivid way during a Secretary of Defense. Long before that, he visit to an rotc encampment at Fort Lewis, was an engineer, an entrepreneur, a member Washington, in Summer 2008. I was a wit- of the Stanford faculty, and an Academy Fel- ness for about a week at Warrior Forge, a low. Following his government service, he ½ve-week course in leadership training that returned to Stanford as the Michael and Bar- Army rotc cadets complete between their bara Berberian Professor, Codirector of the junior and senior years. Many times over the Preventive Defense Project, and Senior Fel- course of that week, various of½cers who low in the Freeman Spogli Institute for In- were running the program asked me a ver- ternational Studies. sion of the following question: “How can it Our third panelist, James Sheehan, is the be that the Army is at war but the nation is Dickason Professor in the Humanities and not?” That question put into sharp focus the Professor of Modern European History, issues that concern us this evening. Emeritus, at Stanford. He is a Fellow of the More recently, in his graduation address American Academy and a Guggenheim Fel- at West Point in May 2011, then-Chairman low. Recognized for his many contributions of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael to history, he will bring a different viewpoint Mullen gave a more comprehensive descrip- to the panel. tion of the issue: Our ½nal panelist, Karl Eikenberry, served David M. Kennedy There isn’t a town or city I visit, where thirty-½ve years in the U.S. Army, culminat- people do not convey to me their great ing his career as lieutenant general and re- David M. Kennedy is the Donald J. McLachlan pride in what we do. Even those who do ceiving numerous decorations for his service Professor of History, Emeritus, at Stanford Uni- not support the wars support the to our country. He served as the U.S. Ambas- versity. He has been a Fellow of the American troops. But I fear they do not know us. I sador to Afghanistan and is currently the Academy since 1996 and is the guest editor of fear they do not comprehend the full Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford’s weight of the burden we carry or the Freeman Spogli Institute. the Dædalus issue on “The Modern American Military” (2011). price we pay when we return from bat- tle. This is important, because a people Presentation uninformed about what they are asking the military to endure is a people in- he discussion this evening is principally evitably unable to fully grasp the scope Toccasioned by the Summer 2011 issue of of the responsibilities our Constitution Dædalus, which I edited, on “The Modern levies upon them. Were we more repre- American Military.” This volume has two sentative of the population, were more aims: ½rst, to examine what the U.S. mili- American families touched by military tary does today, and second, to look at who service, perhaps a more advantageous does it, why they do it, and how they do it. I familiarity would ensue. But we are a chose as an epigraph for the volume a maxim small force, rightly volunteers, and less from Cicero: “Arms are of little value in the than 1 percent of the population, scat- ½eld unless there is wise counsel at home.” tered about the country due to base That maxim served to focus the issue on a closings and frequent and lengthy de- theme that runs through all the volume’s es- ployments. We are also fairly insular, says, and it will be prominent in our discus- speaking our own language of sorts, liv- sion, of the critical importance of the ing within our own unique culture.

32 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Today’s force is not your father’s force, and it is cer- I mentioned that the force is small, but the of½cial size understates the number of peo- tainly not your grandfather’s force. First, it is voluntary, ple who are committed to its mission. As and has been so since 1973. It is also exceptionally Ambassador Eikenberry will discuss, at the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, small by historical standards and relatively inexpen- more than half of the U.S. personnel on the ground were not in uniform but were con- sive, although this is a point of some controversy. tractors, which raises all kinds of questions about the command-and-control structure And this is not a purely academic matter. By historical standards, our force is not only and accountability. Time magazine featured a cover story called small in terms of the population, but in the I will close by quoting an early member of “An Army Apart,” by Mark Thompson, on context of our $14 trillion economy, it is also the American Academy. In 1783, George November 21, 2011. A month earlier, on Oc- relatively inexpensive. Washington said, “It may be laid down as tober 5, the Pew Research Center released a The Pew data reveal how different the a primary position, and the basis of our sys- survey data report entitled War and Sacri½ce force is, in terms of composition and the tem, that every Citizen who enjoys the pro- in the Post-9/11 Era. experience of service, from our forebears’ tection of a Free Government owes not only The Dædalus volume begins with an over- military. For example, according to self- a proportion of his property but even of his view of national security doctrine and per- reported data in the survey, 44 percent– personal services to the defense of it.” That ceived needs, both how they have changed nearly half–of veterans returning from the is not the system we have today. and how they are likely to be adapted to Afghanistan and Iraq theaters report that changing circumstances in the future. The they have had dif½culty readjusting to civil- volume discusses strategic and tactical doc- ian life. For people who served before 9/11, trines. It has much to say about force con- only 25 percent reported dif½culty readjust- ½guration and composition, the demog- ing to civilian life. Thirty-seven percent of raphy of the force, as well as the lived, actual post-9/11 servicepeople self-report post- experience of people in service, both in the traumatic stress disorder (ptsd); only battle space and when soldiers return to civil 16 percent of pre-9/11 servicepeople self- society. reported ptsd. In terms of political views, One of the premises of the volume–and 36 percent of the enlisted ranks and 60 per- of our discussion this evening–is that cent of the of½cer corps are registered Re- today’s force is not your father’s force, and publicans, as opposed to 23 percent in the it is certainly not your grandfather’s force. population at large. First, it is voluntary, and has been so since Because the force is all-volunteer, it is an 1973. It is also exceptionally small by histor- unrepresentative force. African Americans, ical standards: about 0.5 percent of the for example, make up less than 13 percent of American population serves in uniform people in the eighteen- to forty-four-year- today; in the World War II era, well over old labor force cohort, but they make up 10 percent of the entire U.S. population– nearly 20 percent of the enlisted ranks in the sixteen million people–served. Our current U.S. military. Hispanics, on the other hand, force is also relatively inexpensive, although account for about 17 percent of that labor this is a point of some controversy. The force cohort but less than 13 percent of the Department of Defense budget consumes U.S. military. Women make up 51 percent of about 5 percent of gdp. At the height of the eighteen- to forty-four-year-old group World War II, the armed forces accounted but 14 percent of the military. So the demog- for 40 percent of gdp, and at the height of raphy of the military force does not map pre- the Cold War, about 8 to 10 percent of gdp. cisely onto the demographic pro½le of society at large.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 33 the future of the american military

military of a few hundred thousand before At that point, Jimmy Carter was president. the war grew to an impressive sixteen mil- He agreed with Eisenhower’s decision not to lion, as David said. Our defense industry build up a large standing army; instead, he went from building a few dozen aircraft a invoked what he called the offset strategy: year to building one hundred thousand mil- we would maintain parity in our nuclear itary aircraft in the peak year of 1944. That weapons, but we would transform our conven- amazing story is detailed in David’s brilliant tional forces not in quantity, but in quality. book Freedom from Fear. At the time, I was the Under Secretary of In 1945, when the war was over, the United Defense for Research and Engineering, and States rapidly demobilized its tremendous my job was to try to implement that strategy. military force. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union We developed stealth technology, smart maintained a large Red Army, trying to em- weapons, smart command-and-control in- ulate what the United States had done in formation, including gps, and what came World War II by building up a huge defense to be called arpanet (the Advanced Re- industry. That set the stage for what came to search Projects Agency Network). That be called the Cold War. The threat, as we saw strategy prevailed in the United States until it, was that the Soviet Union and the Peo- the end of the Cold War. It became fully op- How should we transform the U.S. military to operate effectively in light of the modern threats we face? In William J. Perry terms of Cold War–era nuclear weapons, the major William J. Perry is the Michael and Barbara threat is not an attack from the Soviet Union, which no Berberian Professor at Stanford University, where longer even exists, but proliferation, terrorism, and the he is also Codirector of the Preventive Defense danger of a regional nuclear war being started. Project and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. At the U.S. ple’s Republic of China would come to dom- erational before the Cold War ended and Department of Defense, he served as Secretary inate Europe and Asia. Now, as the aphorism was demonstrated, during Operation Desert of Defense, Deputy Secretary of Defense, and goes, the generals always ½ght the last war– Storm, to be remarkably effective. We de- Under Secretary of Defense for Research and En- and that turned out to be true of the Soviet feated not the Red Army, but what could be gineering. He has been a Fellow of the American Union. Stalin was preparing to ½ght the last considered a surrogate for the Red Army, be- Academy since 1989. war, and he prepared his military accord- cause the Iraqi Army was equipped entirely ingly. with Soviet equipment–and with quite Presentation The United States, based on a decision by modern equipment, I would add. President Eisenhower, did not prepare to The third era, and the one we are in now, will discuss how U.S. military strategy ½ght the last war. General Eisenhower be- is called–for want of a better name–the and policy are derived from the perceived I lieved that sustaining a large standing army post–Cold War era. The new threats that threats to our nation, and I will begin by pro- would devastate our economy. He evolved a emerged were instability, failed states, po- viding some historical perspective. In World strategy to maintain a small army (about tential for regional wars, nuclear prolifera- War II, we believed that we faced a truly ex- one-third the size of the Red Army) and to tion, and the potential for catastrophic istential threat from the formidable military offset the size differential with nuclear supe- terrorism. Now, we don’t believe in ½ghting machines in Japan and Germany. Although riority. That strategy indeed worked for the the last war, but we inherited the military we today we think of ourselves as a technology- ½rst half of the Cold War. But by the mid- built up for the Cold War to deal with these oriented nation, in World War II, our strat- 1970s, the Soviet Union had achieved nu- new challenges. So the reasonable question egy was to overwhelm enemy forces with clear parity, and their three-to-one advantage to ask is: how did a military designed for the numbers–not technology. To that end, a in conventional forces seemed unacceptable. Cold War adapt to these new threats? In the

34 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 ½rst Iraq War (that is, Desert Storm), it The problem we face today is very differ- adapted very well; this is not surprising be- ent from that of the Cold War. In the con- cause the army we faced had many of the ventional forces, our strategy has been to use characteristics of the Red Army that our mil- our naval forces to protect the sea lanes, es- itary was designed to ½ght. pecially the Paci½c and the Mideast; to use But in the second Iraq War and the War in our Air Force in overseas operations, primar- Afghanistan, the situation was very differ- ily through vehicles piloted remotely from ent. Although we defeated the Iraqi Army U.S. bases; and to decrease the size of our in- and the Taliban in just a few weeks, our army fantry and armored forces while increasing was not well con½gured or equipped to ½ght our special operations forces and Marines. the insurgency phase that followed. Our foes Through all these changes, we expect to did not oblige us by ½ghting the way we maintain high quality and readiness. And wanted them to ½ght. They used asymmetric with this smaller, all-volunteer military, the techniques and insurgency warfare, impro- decoupling of military and civilian society vised explosive devices, and terrorism. As a that David described will become even more consequence, the Iraq War, which was orig- stark. inally advertised as lasting a month or two How should we contend with this decou- and costing less than $15 billion, continued pling? I would suggest placing a greater em- for seven years, at a cost of well over $7 tril- phasis on the Reserves, the National Guard, lion and with casualties totaling more than and the rotc as well as maintaining the gi four thousand U.S. soldiers and hundreds of Bill. David pointed out that only a small per- thousands of civilians. In Afghanistan, we centage of our gis have college educations. have waged war for almost ten years and When I was Secretary of Defense, I visited James J. Sheehan counting, which is adding up to a very sub- most of our bases, and at each visit I asked James J. Sheehan is the Dickason Professor in the stantial cost in casualties as well. The U.S. the question: why did you join the Army, the Humanities and Professor of Modern European military was not designed to confront asym- Navy, or the Air Force? More than half the History, Emeritus, at Stanford University. He has metric tactics and is still trying to learn how time, the answer was, “I wanted to go to col- been a Fellow of the American Academy since to deal with those kinds of threats. In the lege and I couldn’t afford it, so I joined for area of domestic terrorism, the U.S. military the gi Bill.” Many of those who joined the 1992. simply is not used in defending against that military for that reason have now ½nished Presentation particular threat to the country. their service and are attending a college or The question, then, is: how should we university. My own grandson, for example, will offer both a chronological and a geo- transform the U.S. military to operate effec- who went into the Marines right out of high Igraphical context for the American case. tively in light of the modern threats we face? school and served three tours in Iraq, is now American historians, particularly my friend In terms of Cold War–era nuclear weapons, a student at Stanford. And there are many and colleague David Kennedy, are much ex- the major threat is not an attack from the So- other speci½c examples of citizens bene½t- ercised by the notion of American excep- viet Union, which no longer even exists, but ing by serving their country in the military tionalism. Indeed, the problems that we face proliferation, terrorism, and the danger of and then returning to civilian life. The gen- are exceptional, but to understand those a regional nuclear war being started. Our eral policy conclusion I draw is that our na- challenges, we have to look at the rest of the strategy for dealing with those threats is to tion would be well served by placing greater world. maintain our deterrence at a much lower emphasis on the citizen-soldier component I want to frame my remarks with a famous level of nuclear weapons, protect bombs and of our military. Doing so will be a win for the 1937 article entitled “The Garrison State,” by ½ssile material so that terrorists won’t get citizen-soldier, a win for the military, and ul- American political scientist Harold Lass- them, and increase our efforts to halt prolif- timately a win for the nation. well. For Lasswell, garrison states were eration–efforts that have not been very suc- states in which the specialists in violence, es- cessful. The deterrence aspect of this pecially the military, played a predominant mission is essentially unilateral, but the oth- role. Civilian states were states in which ers require multilateral cooperation. businessmen, specialists in what Lasswell

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 35 the future of the american military

called bargaining, established institutional lation and to their neighbors, they are in- the Vietnam era are often struck by the way priorities. The two models were on either creasingly isolated in the global scene. this war, now more than a decade old, has side of an old debate in European social and What about the United States? One of the had so little impact on American political political thought about the direction of mod- reasons why Lasswell’s argument has had culture. ern societies. In 1937, and even more so in such a long shelf life–and is still one of the This disconnect brings us directly back to 1941 when Lasswell republished the article, most influential articles of the twentieth the subject of the Dædalus volume and to- the specialists in violence appeared to be century–is that Americans have tradition- day’s panel. The war has had so little reso- winning virtually everywhere: garrison states, ally feared the shadow of a garrison state. nance because, for most Americans, it has driven by the imperatives of World War II, This was, after all, the substance of Dwight not seemed to cost anything. The Army is were being established throughout the Eisenhower’s famous farewell address, in small. One of the interesting sets of data in world. But after 1945, the balance slowly, which he warned about the rise of the mili- the Pew survey that David mentioned is the degree to which the U.S. Army is becoming It is striking how little concern there is for military more like the British Army–that is, an army matters– indeed, for war– in the American public. of families, in which soldiers are apt to have parents (traditionally fathers, but recently, The remarkable feature of the ten-year war we have both fathers and mothers) as well as siblings who are soldiers. In other words, the Army been fighting in the Middle East is how little political is becoming not only smaller, not only less a resonance it has had. part of Americans’ experience, but also more insular. gradually, but inexorably tipped toward the tary-industrial complex. There is a shelf of To use Lasswell’s terms, the American case civilians, particularly in Europe, the part of books published in the last few years that is exceptional because the United States is a the world that for centuries had been the talk about the new militarism–the new way civilian society that wants to have a powerful center of military activity with global conse- in which Americans are in danger of falling military. It wants–rightly, in my judgment quences. victim to the garrison mentality. The histo- –to be able to project global power. And that Beginning in the 1960s, the specialists in rian Andrew Bacevich of Boston University takes us to the questions that animate the violence–the military–were marginalized is the most eloquent and insistent advocate Dædalus volume and that I think ought to in virtually every Western European state. of this position. And there is considerable concern all of us. These are questions about Military budgets shrank. The number of sol- evidence to back up these kinds of anxieties. the impact on the military itself of making diers conscripted decreased, and although While the United States spends a relatively enormous sacri½ces for a society that in conscription remained, it became a less ef- small amount of its budget on military insti- many ways is not deeply engaged with those fective way of raising military forces, a con- tutions, compared to most of the rest of the who serve and that does not understand sequence that no one seemed particularly world that investment is still substantial. them. These are questions for all of us, about worried about. In the years after the 1960s The United States has an archipelago of the deep moral and political problems in a and 1970s, these civilian values and institu- bases. It has a fleet that is able to project democracy that imposes a burden on a rela- tions spread out of Western Europe, ½rst power on a global scale. No other country tively small, isolated sector of the popula- into the periphery of Europe–Spain, Portu- matches the U.S. military in its extent, its tion. These are political problems, they are gal, and Greece–and then into Eastern Eu- ambitions, its aspirations. institutional problems, they are moral prob- rope. When the Soviet Union fell in 1989, And yet it seems to me that we should not lems, and they are, it seems to me, problems Eastern European states also took on civilian overestimate the danger of an American gar- that have no easy solution. But it is essential values and institutions. In Europe and else- rison state. It is striking how little concern that we confront them. where in the world, including Japan, for ex- there is for military matters–indeed, for ample, the civilian values of bargaining and war–in the American public. The remark- commerce now predominate. able feature of the ten-year war we have been There are, to be sure, still garrison states. ½ghting in the Middle East is how little po- North Korea is an archetypal garrison state, litical resonance it has had. Where are the and there are others as well. But while these Iraq War movies? Where are the protests, states are still dangerous to their own popu- for and against? Those of us who grew up in

36 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 tion’s security and to our military that force? The political constraint on our gov- comes with our declining economic and ernment during the Vietnam War, for exam- ½scal standing in the world today. Third, I ple, came in part from our use of a draft army will make a plea for our civilian leadership to ½ght an unpopular war. Would we have to better conceptualize our national security invaded Iraq with a draft army? Would we strategy in the years ahead, and to give more have one hundred thousand American troops thought to the direction of major military in Afghanistan, ten years after 9/11, if we had operations prior to engagement. a draft army? If your answer to those ques- With regard to the potential decoupling of tions is “certainly not,” then you have to ask: military and civilian society, I would also is there something wrong with the republic commend to you the Time magazine article right now? This is a fundamental question by Mark Thompson that Professor Kennedy of democratic values and accountability, and mentioned. Most attempts to examine the I think that there is something wrong. We decoupling of the American military from have a Congress that has not been very clear our society trace the problem back to 1973 over many decades about how it exercises its Beyond the military implications of our weakening economy and compromised fiscal strength is a broader question: what does our changing status mean in terms of our ability to deliver a comprehen- Karl W. Eikenberry sive national security strategy? Karl W. Eikenberry is the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at the Freeman Spogli Institute for Inter- and the beginning of the all-volunteer force. function to declare war, and generally has (I’m embarrassed to say that my military ca- not exercised that prerogative since World national Studies at Stanford University. Previ- reer spans the draft army and the all-volun- War II. ously, he served as the U.S. Ambassador to Afghan- teer force; I was a cadet at West Point in What do we do about the system we now istan. He served in the United States Army for 1969.) Let me make clear that at that time, have? Well, we could return to the draft. In thirty-½ve years, retiring in 2009 with the rank we had an ill-disciplined draft army. It was his con½rmation hearing at the U.S. Senate of Lieutenant General. plagued by racial problems; it was ridden this summer, General Dempsey said, and I with drugs. In 1971, I went to serve as an act- agree, that a return to the draft would cer- Presentation ing platoon leader for the 25th Infantry Di- tainly come at a huge cost to the readiness of n advance of my remarks, I would like to vision, based in Scho½eld Barracks, Hawaii, our armed forces and, politically, is probably Isay that the Summer 2011 issue of Dædalus and which had recently returned from Viet- a nonstarter. So how do we proceed? Dr. is the most provocative and informative vol- nam. On a Saturday, I had the responsibility Perry had some very good insights; I hope ume on the U.S. military that I have read in of serving as staff duty of½cer, who checked the issue will be discussed further. thirty-eight years of military and govern- on the troops in the barracks and made sure My second point relates to the impact of ment service. I commend it to all of you. In good order and discipline were being main- our declining economic standing on the fact, I’m going to send a note to our Chair- tained. As I was getting ready to go on duty, armed forces and on our comprehensive se- man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General I was told, “You will carry this sidearm, and curity strategy. First, the American way of Marty Dempsey, and ask that he consider you will have live ammunition with you, be- war is materially and technologically inten- making it mandatory reading for our of½cer cause when you walk through the barracks sive. The American military dominates bat- corps. on Saturday night, you don’t know what to tle½elds and theaters of war with its savvy I would like to make three points. First, I expect.” My point is, be careful about ro- use of high-quality material and technolog- will talk about the risk of our armed forces manticizing the draft army. ical resources. American creative genius per- becoming alienated from greater society. On the other hand, what are the conse- mits us to take all this sophisticated equip- Second, I will address the threat to our na- quences of having a no-draft, all-volunteer ment and employ it in clever ways. Over the

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 37 the future of the american military

last two centuries, our military has relied the course of the 2012 presidential cam- Discussion heavily on material and technology, and I be- paign. As Jim pointed out, U.S. military lieve that our armed forces will be even more strategy is simply not on the radarscope of John Hennessy dependent in the years ahead. How do we the American people. In Iowa yesterday, in Historically, all of America’s signi½cant ensure that our defense base, our related preparation for the caucus there, Republi- armed conflicts–the Civil War, World War civilian-industrial base, and our technolog- cans were asked the question, “What’s im- I, World War II, Vietnam–were followed by ical base remain superior to those of our po- portant to you?” Zero percent–that is, no substantial demobilization. We did not keep tential contenders? The Dædalus volume one–listed national security or interna- a large-scale force in place. We dismantled includes a very good article about the poten- tional security as important. It will likely fall virtually the entire military apparatus, and tial vulnerability that our military faces to the next administration–Obama II or a then we had to rebuild it later as successive when peer competitors–or just clever com- Republican administration–to rede½ne, if threats presented themselves. The cultural petitors–½gure out how to deny us the they wish, our national security strategy in and political stage seems to be set for some- tremendous advantage that we now enjoy light of the last ten years and the war on terror. isr thing comparable to happen now. If some- in terms of precision strike, the related Our civilian leaders must be more one were to ask, why do we have an armed (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) thoughtful about our major military opera- force at all, and in particular, why do we have system, and command and control. tions. Our military wages military cam- armed forces on their current scale and with But beyond the military implications of paigns; our civilian leadership is responsible this globe-girdling mission assigned to our weakening economy and compromised for directing and providing guidance. We them, what rationale can the civilian leader- ½scal strength is a broader question: what have heard quotes from George Washing- ship offer to the American people for sus- does our changing status mean in terms of ton; I will go back a couple of centuries ear- taining, if not precisely the military we have our ability to deliver a comprehensive na- lier to the famous Chinese military strategist today, then at least an establishment that tional security strategy? On a recent trip Li Ch’üan, who wrote in a comment to Sun will be commensurate with threats going that my wife and I made to Australia to meet Tzu’s The Art of War, “War is a grave matter. forward? with current and previous leaders of that na- One is apprehensive lest men embark upon tion, I heard for the ½rst time the term “half it without due reflections.” I listen to the William Perry a superpower” used in reference to the candidates on the campaign trail respond to United States–to us, unrivaled and un- the question, “What would you do in I am in favor of maintaining a smaller mili- matched in terms of defense capabilities but Afghanistan?” Generally, the answer is, “I tary than we have today, but whatever the without corresponding economic power. would listen to my generals and give them size of the military, it ought to be highly They talked about how their trade patterns what they want.” I am worried by answers ready, highly trained, very capable, and well were changing dramatically to focus on like that. equipped. In other words, I think we can China, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South maintain the best military in the world with Asia. A pundit wrote recently that power fol- a smaller military. In the past, the problem lows the flow of money, and right now, there has been that as budgets shrink, we make the are a lot of dollars flowing out of the United wrong trade-offs; we choose not to keep States. At what point do others, as Australia people in the force with readiness, with has done, decide it’s time to at least recon- training, with education. I think that is a sider their security ties? Eisenhower, who huge mistake. I don’t think we will make has been mentioned several times here that mistake this time, but we will have to be tonight, once wrote that there is no defense careful. for any country that busts its own economy. I think that is a good note of advice. James Sheehan Third, I would like to emphasize the need I think the pressure on the American presi- for the civilian leadership to better articulate dency will come from Europe. It is remark- our national security strategy and provide able that nato has survived as long as it more coherent guidance on its implementa- has, and as budget cuts come into play, there tion. I do not believe that this will happen in will be enormous pressure to reduce

38 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Our military forces are asking, what roles and mis- Question sions will be expected of them in the decades ahead, Given the fact that the military may become smaller, and that some of the demands it will and at what scale will they be expected to operate? face will require very high levels of skill, how They will need answers to those questions from our can we possibly avoid the decoupling of that small, highly-skilled military from the larger civilian leaders. civilian society? nato’s infrastructure. There is some room Our military forces are asking, what roles David Kennedy nato to do so. However, plays a valuable and missions will be expected of them in the My own view, which aligns with Bill Perry’s political role: it is a forum for political and decades ahead, and at what scale will they be sense that we will have a smaller military military relationships that draw together not expected to operate? They will need answers going forward, con½rms exactly that pros- simply traditional partners, but partners to those questions from our civilian leaders. pect. However, one counterthought is, to the such as Greece and Turkey that might not extent that future missions include tasks ordinarily be part of the same political struc- nato Questions from the Audience such as peacekeeping, counterinsurgency, ture. One of the reasons has survived and nation-building, we may need a force is that it has had a stabilizing influence on that is con½gured entirely differently, that Question Europe as a whole, and dismantling that specializes not in the application of coercive would be a grave mistake. For a long period of time, there was a strong force but in other kinds of missions and ob- coupling between the people in the military jectives. That may well be a larger force. It Karl Eikenberry and warfare. Around 1997, our Secretary of would not look like a traditional military, The famous military historian Michael Defense Bill Perry ordered the Defense Ad- and it would have a different kind of mission. Howard once said that one of the challenges vanced Research Projects Agency to put the for a military and a national security estab- only two Predators that it had into the Bos- William Perry nian theater, where they began to demon- lishment is never knowing exactly what the For many decades, we have designed an strate their capability, and now we have future of warfare will look like, never know- active-duty force lacking in certain capabili- thousands of them. We are at the birth of the ing where forces will be called on to ½ght, ties needed for both ½ghting and peacekeep- robotic era of warfare, which will decouple and–during times of peace–avoiding get- ing operations. Indeed, when we launched the military people themselves from war- ting things too wrong. Along with Dr. Perry, operations in Iraq, we had to call on a sub- fare. How will that affect the future of war- I believe in keeping our National Guard and stantial number of Reserve and National fare? Reserve vibrant and strong. These institu- Guard members because we had built them tions can play an important role in ensuring into the structure of the force. As we move William Perry that American society remains connected to toward an even smaller army, the key will be its military. As I mentioned, maintaining the I think that the future of the Air Force will delegating some of the activities in those defense industrial base is necessary as well, likely revolve around not manned airplanes kinds of operations to the National Guard and I think its importance can be explained but remotely piloted vehicles, which employ and Reserve. As an additional bene½t, hav- to the American people. Part of avoiding get- much the same technology as the robotic ve- ing to call on the civilian part of the popula- ting it wrong also goes back to something hicles you mentioned. I do think that is very tion to carry out a war would encourage that former Secretary of Defense Robert important, and it is being pursued by the some inhibition. Gates said about six months ago, not long military. before he left of½ce. He remarked that any- one who commits again to a large land war in Asia should have his head examined.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 39 the future of the american military

Question Question There is a second challenge that hides the cost of the conflict. In year ten of Afghan- The elephant in the room is Iran and its re- With regard to the contracted personnel istan, we have one hundred thousand sol- lationship with Israel. I have talked to quite who are using weapons, can the panelists de- diers; but when we include contractors, that a few people in Washington who have said scribe the contracted force in demographic number rises to about two hundred thou- there is a good chance that Israel will attack terms? Second, what is the fate of a country sand personnel serving for the Department Iran at some point. What kind of military that outsources so much of its own protection of Defense–and we hide that. It is not help- would it take to deal with that problem? to a non-state agency? Is it only our interna- ful for the republic when we go to extraordi- tional reputation that gets diminished, or is it nary lengths to avoid having a frank conver- William Perry dangerous to our future as a democracy? sation with the American people, in which we lay out the true cost of the conflict. All the senior Israeli military and political Karl Eikenberry ½gures that I have talked with have said that they will not permit Iran to acquire a nuclear The reliance on contractors, which began in © 2012 by John L. Hennessy, David M. Ken- weapon because they fear it would pose an the Balkans with more limited interventions nedy, William J. Perry, James J. Sheehan, and existential threat to their nation–and with and grew exponentially in Afghanistan and Karl W. Eikenberry, respectively some reason, based on the statements of the Iraq, is disgraceful. More than one hundred Iranian president. Therefore, it is imperative thousand contractors serve with the Depart- To view or listen to the presentations, that the United States, Europe, and Russia ment of Defense and our military inside visit http://www.amacad.org/events/ take this problem more seriously and work Afghanistan. We have improved over time AmericanMilitary. harder to try to keep that from happening. the rules of accountability for them, but this The unintended consequences of an Israeli is still not adequate. So, yes, we have a lot of attack on Iran, even if it succeeds in destroy- contractors running around Afghanistan ing Iran’s nuclear weapons capability, would with weapons. At the same time that we are be very bad. lecturing Afghans on the rule of law and ac- countability, telling their soldiers that they have a monopoly on the use of force in their society, telling them to use it wisely to de- fend their people, we are bringing in one hundred thousand contractors. Not all of them, but many of them, are armed. It is a very severe problem.

40 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Remembrance

It is with sadness that the Academy notes the passing of the following members.*

James Richard Arnold–January 6, William Rede Hawthorne–Septem- Frank Sherwood Rowland–March 2012; elected to the Academy in 1969 ber 16, 2011; elected to the Academy 10, 2012; elected to the Academy in in 1950 1977 Mary Ellen Avery–December 4, 2012; elected to the Academy in 1973 F. Warren Hellman–December 18, Robert J. Silbey–October 27, 2011; 2011; elected to the Academy in 2005 elected to the Academy in 1991 M. Salah Baouendi–December 24, 2011; elected to the Academy in 2005 Ira Michael Heyman–November 19, Edson White Spencer–March 25, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1995 2012; elected to the Academy in 1993 Howard Alan Bern–January 3, 2012; elected to the Academy in 1985 W. David Hopper–November 22, Wislawa Szymborska–February 1, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1976 2012; elected to the Academy in 2005 Paul Samuel Boyer–March 17, 2012; elected to the Academy in 1997 Ricardo Legorreta Vilchis–Decem- Antoni Tapies–February 6, 2012; ber 30, 2011; elected to the Academy elected to the Academy in 1992 Roy John Britten–January 21, 2012; in 1994 elected to the Academy in 1986 James Burleigh Thompson, Jr.– Margaret Ellerbe Mahoney–Decem- November 15, 2011; elected to the John Angus Chamberlain–December ber 22, 2011; elected to the Academy Academy in 1958 21, 2011; elected to the Academy in in 1988 2000 Wylie Vale–January 3, 2012; elected Bayless Andrew Manning–July 18, to the Academy in 1997 Roderick Keener Clayton–October 2011; elected to the Academy in 1969 23, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1971 John Milton Ward–December 12, Ruth Barcan Marcus–February 19, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1968 Dale Raymond Corson–April 1, 2012; 2012; elected to the Academy in 1977 elected to the Academy in 1969 David Calvin White–January 11, 2012; Lynn Margulis–November 22, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1963 Zelman Cowen–December 8, 2011; elected to the Academy in 1998 elected to the Academy in 1965 Halbert L. White, Jr.–March 31, Manfred Mayrhofer–October 31, 2012; elected to the Academy in 1999 James Franklin Crow–January 3, 2012; 2011; elected to the Academy in 1993 elected to the Academy in 1966 Maurice Vincent Wilkes–November Masayasu Nomura–November 19, 29, 2010; elected to the Academy in Ruth Margaret Davis–March 28, 2012; 2011; elected to the Academy in 1969 1974 elected to the Academy in 1990 Guillermo Alberto O’Donnell– James Quinn Wilson–March 2, 2012; Paul Mead Doty–December 5, 2011; November 29, 2011; elected to the elected to the Academy in 1966 elected to the Academy in 1951 Academy in 1995 Norton David Zinder–February 3, Renato Dulbecco–February 19, 2012; Lloyd John Old–November 28, 2011; 2012; elected to the Academy in 1968 elected to the Academy in 1965 elected to the Academy in 1976 Gunnar Carl Michael Fant–June 6, Louis Shreve Osborne–January 22, 2009; elected to the Academy in 1992 2012; elected to the Academy in 1964 Harold K. Forsen–March 7, 2012; Albert Warner Overhauser–Decem- elected to the Academy in 2000 ber 10, 2011; elected to the Academy Helen Frankenthaler–December 27, in 1977 2011; elected to the Academy in 1991 Samuel I. Rapaport–December 20, Irving John Good–April 5, 2009; 2011; elected to the Academy in 2008 elected to the Academy in 1985 Saul Roseman–July 2, 2011; elected Vaclav Havel–December 18, 2011; to the Academy in 1971 elected to the Academy in 2001

*Notice received from November 12, 2011, to April 11, 2012

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 41 noteworthy

As of press time, several Fel- Academy Fellows elected to Elaine Fuchs (The Rockefeller Uni- Thomas Jessell (Columbia Uni- lows of the Academy, listed the National Academy of versity) received the 2012 March versity) received a Canada Gaird- below, had been nominated or Engineering, 2012 of Dimes Prize in Developmental ner International Award. Biology. She shares the prize with appointed to key posts in the Andrew H. Knoll (Harvard Uni- Obama administration: Mary C. Boyce (Massachusetts Howard Green (Harvard Medical School). versity) was awarded the Mary Institute of Technology) Clark Thompson Medal by the Rebecca M. Blank (U.S. Depart- John Lewis Gaddis (Yale Univer- National Academy of Sciences. ment of Commerce) was con- Tobin J. Marks (Northwestern University) sity) received a 2012 Pulitzer Prize ½rmed as Deputy Secretary of and a National Book Critics Circle Eric S. Lander (The Broad Insti- Commerce. tute) is the recipient of the Dart/ David E. Shaw (D.E. Shaw Re- Award for George F. Kennan: An nyu search) American Life. Biotechnology Achievement Amy Gutmann (University of Award in Applied Biotechnology. Pennsylvania) was reappointed Samuel I. Stupp (Northwestern Barbara Goldsmith (Barbara Gold- Chair of the Presidential Com- University) smith Productions) was among Leon M. Lederman (Illinois Math- mission for the Study of Bioethi- the recipients of the 2012 Women ematics and Science Academy) is cal Issues. Michael S. Waterman (University the recipient of the 2012 Vannevar of Southern California) of Achievement Award, given by the Women’s Project. Bush Award, given by the Na- James W. Wagner (Emory Uni- tional Science Board. versity) was reappointed Vice Other Awards Everett Peter Greenberg (Univer- Chair of the Presidential Com- sity of Washington) is the recipient Tobin J. Marks (Northwestern mission for the Study of Bioethi- University) is the recipient of the Madeleine K. Albright (Washing- of the 2012 D.C. White Research cal Issues. nas Award in Chemical Sciences. ton, DC) received a 2012 Common and Mentoring Award, given by Wealth Award of Distinguished the American Society for Micro- Harry Y. McSween, Jr. (University Select Prizes and Awards Service. biology. of Tennessee) has been awarded the J. Lawrence Smith Medal by Cornelia I. Bargmann Stephen Greenblatt (Harvard Uni- (The Rocke- the National Academy of Sciences. National Humanities Medal, feller University) is the recipient versity) won a 2012 Pulitzer Prize 2011 of the Dart/nyu Biotechnology for The Swerve: How the World Be- Jeremiah P. Ostriker (Princeton Achievement Award in Basic Bio- came Modern. University) has been awarded the Kwame Anthony Appiah (Prince- technology. Jeffrey C. Hall (University of Maine) James Craig Watson Medal by the ton University) National Academy of Sciences. Zdenek P. Bazant (Northwestern was awarded the Canada Gairdner John Ashbery (Bard College) University) is the recipient of the International Award. He shares the Michael I. Posner (University of 2011 Maurice A. Biot Medal from award with Michael Rosbash (Bran- Oregon) is the recipient of the Robert Darnton (Harvard Univer- the American Society of Civil En- deis University) and Michael W. John J. Carty Award for the Ad- sity) gineers. Young (Rockefeller University). vancement of Science, given by Andrew Delbanco (Columbia Uni- the National Academy of Sciences. Robert J. Birgeneau (University of Helen Hobbs (University of Texas versity) California, Berkeley) is the recip- Southwestern Medical Center) was Robert Powell (University of Cal- Charles Rosen (New York, New ient of the 2012 Clifford G. Shull awarded the inaugural Antonio ifornia, Berkeley) is the recipient York) Prize, given by the Neutron Scat- M. Gotto Jr. Prize in Atheroscle- of the nas Award for Behavioral tering Society of America. rosis Research. Research Relevant to the Preven- Amartya Sen (Harvard University) tion of Nuclear War. Elizabeth Blackburn (University Michael J. Hopkins (Harvard Uni- of California, San Francisco) re- versity) is the recipient of the Menahem Pressler (Indiana Uni- Academy Fellows awarded ceived the 2012 American Insti- nas Award in Mathematics. versity) was awarded the 2012 2012 Guggenheim Fellowships tute of Chemists Gold Medal. Nancy Hopkins (Massachusetts Yehudi Menuhin Prize for the In- tegration of the Arts and Educa- Titia de Lange (The Rockefeller Institute of Technology) is the John Aldrich (Duke University) tion. University) has been awarded 2012 recipient of the Margaret L. John Carlson (Yale University) the Dr. H. P. Heineken Prize for Kripke Legend Award for Promo- Jeffrey V. Ravetch (The Rockefel- James N. Druckman (Northwest- Biochemistry and Biophysics. tion of Women in Cancer Medi- ler University) received a Canada ern University) cine and Cancer Science, present- Gairdner International Award. Rita Dove (University of Virginia) ed by The University of Texas md Margot E. Fassler (University of is the recipient of a 2011 National Anderson Cancer Center. Daniel T. Rodgers (Princeton Notre Dame) Medal of Arts. University) received a 2012 Ban- Shirley Ann Jackson (Rensselaer croft Prize for Age of Fracture. Robert P. Kirshner (Harvard Uni- Marye Anne Fox (University of Polytechnic Institute) is the recip- versity) California, San Diego) received ient of the 2011 Philip Hauge Abel- Barbara Romanowicz (University the 2012 Othmer Gold Medal son Award, given by the Ameri- of California, Berkeley) was award- Richard Sieburth (New York Uni- from the Chemical Heritage can Association for the Advance- ed the Harry Fielding Reid Medal versity) Foundation. ment of Science. by the Seismological Society of Beth A. Simmons (Harvard Uni- America. versity) Stephen Yablo (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

42 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 Michael Rosbash (Brandeis Uni- Robert A. Weinberg (Massachu- Marjorie M. Scardino (Pearson) Bill Clinton (William J. Clinton versity) was awarded the Canada setts Institute of Technology) is was elected to Chair the Board of Foundation). Back to Work: Why Gairdner International Award. He the recipient of the 2012 Pezcoller Directors of the John D. and Cath- We Need Smart Government for a shares the award with Jeffrey C. Foundation-aacr International erine T. MacArthur Foundation. Strong Economy. Knopf, November Hall (University of Maine) and Award for Cancer Research. 2011 Michael W. Young (Rockefeller Sean C. Solomon (Carnegie Insti- University). tution for Science) was named Di- E. J. Dionne, Jr. (Brookings Insti- New Appointments rector of Columbia University’s tution). Our Divided Political Heart: Henry F. Schaefer III (University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observa- The Battle for the American Idea in of Georgia) is the recipient of the tory. an Age of Discontent. Bloomsbury, 2012 sura Distinguished Scien- Brook H. Byers (Kleiner Perkins June 2012 tist Award, given by the South- Cau½eld & Byers) was elected to Peter K. Vogt (Scripps Research eastern Universities Research Asso- the Board of Trustees of Stanford Institute) was named Senior Vice Diana L. Eck (Harvard Univer- ciation. University. President for Scienti½c Affairs at sity). India: A Sacred Geography. the Scripps Research Institute. Harmony, March 2012 John H. Seinfeld (California Insti- Rita R. Colwell (Canon U.S. Life tute of Technology) has been Sciences, Inc.) was elected to the Susan T. Fiske (Princeton Univer- awarded the 2012 Tyler Prize for Board of Trustees of the Marine Select Publications sity) and Hazel Rose Markus (Stan- Environmental Achievement. He Biological Laboratory. ford University), eds. Facing Social Class: How Societal Rank Influences shares the award with Kirk R. Robert M. Groves (U.S. Census Smith (University of California, Fiction Interaction. Russell Sage Founda- Bureau) was appointed Executive tion, April 2012 Berkeley). Vice President and Provost of Nadine Gordimer (Johannesburg, Amartya Sen (Harvard Univer- Georgetown University. South Africa). No Time Like the Henry Louis Gates, Jr. (Harvard University). The Henry Louis Gates, sity) is the recipient of the 2012 Steven E. Hyman (Harvard Uni- Present. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Notre Dame Award for Interna- April 2012 Jr. Reader. Basic Civitas Books, versity) has been named Director May 2012 tional Human Development and of the Broad Institute’s Stanley Toni Morrison (Princeton Uni- Solidarity. Center for Psychiatric Research. versity). Home. Knopf, May 2012 Amy Gutmann (University of Penn- sylvania) and Dennis Thompson Harold T. Shapiro (Princeton Randy H. Katz (University of Cal- John D. Steinbruner (University University) has been awarded the (Harvard University). The Spirit of ifornia, Berkeley) was appointed of Maryland). The Secular Monas- Compromise: Why Governing De- Public Welfare Medal by the Na- to the Board of Advisors of Conte- tery. CreateSpace, September 2011 tional Academy of Sciences. mands It and Campaigning Under- Xtream, Inc. mines It. Princeton University Press, Robert B. Silvers (New York Re- Larry D. Kramer (Stanford Law Non½ction May 2012 view of Books) received the Ivan School) was selected to be Presi- Eric R. Kandel (Columbia Univer- Sandrof Lifetime Achievement Madeleine Albright (Washington, dent of The William and Flora sity). The Age of Insight: The Quest Award, given by the National Book DC). Prague Winter: A Personal Story Hewlett Foundation. to Understand the Unconscious in Art, Critics Circle. of Remembrance and War, 1937– Mind, and Brain, from Vienna 1900 Tak W. Mak (University of Toron- 1948. Harper, April 2012 Larry R. Squire (University of to) has joined the Board of Direc- to the Present. Random House, California, San Diego; va Medical tors of EntreMed, Inc. Daniel Boyarin (University of March 2012 Center, San Diego) is the recipi- California, Berkeley). The Jewish Alice Kaplan (Yale University). ent of the nas Award for Scien- Walter G. Massey (School of the Gospels: The Story of the Jewish Dreaming in French: The Paris Years ti½c Reviewing. Art Institute of Chicago) was Christ. New Press, April 2012 elected to the Board of Trustees of of Jacqueline Bouvier Kennedy, Susan Ezra F. Vogel (Harvard Univer- the Marine Biological Laboratory. Bill Bradley (Allen & Company Sontag, and Angela Davis. Univer- llc sity) won the 2012 Lionel Gelber m ). We Can All Do Better. Van- sity of Chicago Press, April 2012 Prize for his book, Deng Xiaoping Morton H. Meyerson (2 Com- guard Press, May 2012 and the Transformation of China. panies, Inc.) has been named to Alice Kessler-Harris (Columbia the Board of Directors of Encore Alan Brinkley (Columbia Univer- University). A Dif½cult Woman: The Bert Vogelstein (Johns Hopkins Health Resources. sity). John F. Kennedy. Times Books, Challenging Life and Times of Lillian University) was awarded the Eighth May 2012 Hellman. Bloomsbury Press, April Annual aacr-Irving Weinstein James D. Plummer (Stanford Uni- 2012 Foundation Distinguished Lec- versity) was appointed to the Pres- Robert A. Caro (New York, New tureship by the American Associ- ident’s Council of the Franklin W. York). The Passage of Power: The Laurence J. Kotlikoff (Boston Uni- ation for Cancer Research. Olin College of Engineering. Years of Lyndon Johnson. Knopf, versity) and Scott Burns (Asset May 2012 Builder). The Clash of Generations: Bess B. Ward (Princeton University) John W. Rowe (Exelon Corpora- Saving Ourselves, Our Kids, and Our is the recipient of the 2012 Procter tion) has been elected to the Jean-Pierre Changeux (Institut Economy. mit Press, April 2012 & Gamble Award in Applied and Board of Directors of the Allstate Pasteur). The Good, the True, and Environmental Microbiology, given Corporation. the Beautiful: A Neuronal Approach, by the American Society for Micro- trans. Laurence Garey. Yale Uni- biology. versity Press, May 2012

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 43 noteworthy

Bernard Lewis (Princeton Univer- Anna Quindlen (New York, New Nicholas T. Zervas (Harvard Med- sity) with Buntzie Ellis Churchill York). Lots of Candles, Plenty of ical School; Massachusetts General (World Affairs Council of Phila- Cake. Random House, April 2012 Hospital), ed. Lectures on Music Form delphia). Notes on a Century: Re- by Dimitri Mitropoulos; trans- flections of a Middle East Historian. Jennifer Ratner-Rosenhagen (Uni- lated from Greek to English. Livanis, Viking, May 2012 versity of Wisconsin-Madison; Greece, 2011 Academy Visiting Scholar, 2005– Tanya Luhrmann (Stanford Uni- 2006). American Nietzsche: A His- versity). When God Talks Back: Un- tory of an Icon and His Ideas. Uni- Exhibitions derstanding the American Evangel- versity of Chicago Press, Novem- ical Relationship with God. Knopf, ber 2011 Richard Serra (New York, New March 2012 Marilynne Robinson (University York): Richard Serra Drawing: A Thomas E. Mann (Brookings Insti- of Iowa). When I Was a Child I Read Retrospective at The Menil Collec- tution) and Norman J. Ornstein Books. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, tion, through June 10, 2012 (American Enterprise Institute). March 2012 It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Charles Rosen (New York, New Collided With the New Politics of Ex- York). Freedom and the Arts: Essays We invite all Fellows and tremism. Basic Books, May 2012 on Music and Literature. Harvard For eign Honorary Members University Press, May 2012 to send notices about their Hazel Rose Markus (Stanford Uni- versity) and Susan T. Fiske (Prince- Robert J. Sampson (Harvard Uni- recent and forthcoming pub - ton University), eds. Facing Social versity). Great American City: Chi- lications, scienti½c ½ndings, Class: How Societal Rank Influences cago and the Enduring Neighborhood exhibitions and performances, Interaction. Russell Sage Founda- Effect. University of Chicago Press, and honors and prizes to February 2012 tion, April 2012 bulletin@ama cad.org. Jerry L. Mashaw (Yale Law School). Jonathan D. Sarna (Brandeis Uni- Creating the Administrative Consti- versity). When General Grant Ex- tution: The Lost One Hundred Years pelled the Jews. Schocken, March of American Administrative Law. Yale 2012 University Press, June 2012 Dennis Thompson (Harvard Uni- Martha C. Nussbaum (University versity) and Amy Gutmann (Uni- of Chicago). The New Religious In- versity of Pennsylvania). The Spirit tolerance: Overcoming the Politics of of Compromise: Why Governing De- Fear in an Anxious Age. Belknap mands It and Campaigning Under- Press of Harvard University Press, mines It. Princeton University Press, April 2012 May 2012 Francis Oakley (Williams College). Jeremy Waldron (New York Uni- The Mortgage of the Past: Reshaping versity). “Partly Laws Common to the Ancient Political Inheritance All Mankind”: Foreign Law in Amer- (1050–1300). Yale University Press, ican Courts. Yale University Press, April 2012 May 2012 Norman J. Ornstein (American Garry Wills (Northwestern Uni- Enterprise Institute) and Thomas versity). Font of Life: Ambrose, Au- E. Mann (Brookings Institution). gustine, and the Mystery of Baptism. It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How Oxford University Press, April the American Constitutional System 2012 Collided With the New Politics of Ex- Edward O. Wilson (Harvard Uni- tremism. Basic Books, May 2012 versity). The Social Conquest of Elaine Pagels (Princeton Univer- Earth. Liveright, April 2012 sity). Revelations: Visions, Prophe- Christoph Wolff (Harvard Uni- cies & Politics in the Book of Rev- versity). Mozart at the Gateway to elation. Viking, March 2012 His Fortune: Serving the Emperor, Colin Powell (Colin L. Powell 1788–1791. W.W. Norton, May Associates, llc). It Worked for Me: 2012 In Life and Leadership. Harper, May 2012

44 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Spring 2012 american academy of arts & sciences Norton’s Woods, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138 telephone 617-576-5000, facsimile 617-576-5050, email [email protected], website www.amacad.org academy officers

Louis W. Cabot, Chair of the Board and Trust Leslie Cohen Berlowitz, President and William T. Golden Chair John S. Reed, Treasurer Jerrold Meinwald, Secretary Gerald L. Early, Chair of the Council Neal Lane, Vice Chair of the Council John Katzenellenbogen, Vice Chair, Midwest Jesse H. Choper, Vice Chair, West publications advisory board

Jesse H. Choper, Denis Donoghue, Gerald Early, Linda Greenhouse, Jerome Kagan, Steven Marcus, Jerrold Meinwald editorial staff

Phyllis S. Bendell, Director of Publications Micah J. Buis, Associate Editor Erica Dorpalen, Assistant Editor Scott Eaton Wilder, Design & Layout Initial design by Joseph Moore of Moore + Associates

Bulletin Spring 2012 Issued as Volume lxv, Number 3 © 2012 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences The Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences (issn 0002–712x) is published quarterly by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138. Periodicals rate postage paid at Boston, ma, and at additional mailing of½ces. Postmaster: Send address changes to Bulletin, American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138. The views expressed in the Bulletin are those held by each contributor and are not necessarily those of the Of½cers and Fellows of the American Acad- emy of Arts & Sciences. photo credits

Steve Rosenthal page 1, top Martha Stewart page 2 Ryan Miller/ Capture Imaging page 8 Rod Searcey pages 10–12, 15, 32, 34–35, 37 Eric Craig Studios, Inc. pages 20, 22, 24