MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS

CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS O2 1 39 October 10, 1997

HENRY W. KENDALL ROOM 2.4-51 4 (617) 253-7584 JULIUS A. STRATTON PROFESSOR OF PHYSICS

Secretary- General Kofi A. Annan The United Nations United Nations Plaza . ..\ U New York City NY

Dear Mr. Secretary-General:

I have received your letter of October 1 , which you sent to me and my fellow Nobel laureates, inquiring whetHeTrwould, from time to time, provide advice and ideas so as to aid your organization in becoming more effective and responsive in its global tasks.

I am grateful to be asked to support you and the United Nations for the contributions you can make to resolving the problems that now face the world are great ones. I would be pleased to help in whatever ways that I can. ~~

I have been involved in many of the issues that you deal with for many years, both as Chairman of the Union of Concerne., Scientists and, more recently, as an advisor to the World Bank. On several occasions I have participated in or initiated activities that brought together numbers of Nobel laureates to lend their voices in support of important international changes. -* . I include several examples of such activities: copies of documents, stemming from the . r work, that set out our views. I initiated the World Bank and the Union of Concerned Scientists' examples but responded to President Clinton's Round Table initiative.

Again, my appreciation for your request;' I look forward to opportunities to contribute usefully.

Sincerely yours

; Henry; W. JCendalH UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS

"WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY"

Summary

Attached is the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a comprehensive statement prepared by UCS which summarizes the views of many prominent scientists on emerging threats to life-sustaining resources and the global environment. The statement outlines a broad agenda of corrective action, ranging from development of a new ethic within the scientific community to greater support for alternatives to fossil fuels and a comprehensive approach to stabilize population growth.

UCS circulated the "Warning" to senior scientists around the world. In an effort to demonstrate consensus among scientists from both developed and developing countries, we sought endorsement from members of the leading scientific academies in North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. The response has been overwhelming: more than 1600 signatories from 70 countries. There should be no doubt that a broad consensus is emerging within the scientific community regarding the validity of major threats to the future well-being of humanity and the global environment.

As indicated on the attachments, the quantity and calibre of signatories to this statement is quite unprecedented:

• 104 scientists who have been awarded the Nobel Prize;

• a substantial number of senior officers from national and international science academies (e.g., Third World Academy of Sciences, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of London, Chinese Academy of Sciences);

• a majority of the members of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences (the prestigious body of scientists that advises Pope John Paul n on scientific issues).

The "Warning" was the first project of a new UCS initiative called the Global Resources Project. Its goals are to greatly expand the participation of scientists in environmental, population, and development issues and to enhance the overall credibility of public education and policy debate.

UCS Headquarters: 26 Church Street Cambridge, MA 02238 617-547-5552 FAX: 617-864-9405 1616 P Street NW Suite 310 Washington, DC 20036 202-332-0900 FAX: 202-332-0905 2397 Shattuck Avenue Suite 203 Berkeley, CA 94704 510-843-1872 FAX: 510-843-3785

PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER SUMMARY DATA ON THE WARNING SIGNATORIES

TOTAL NUMBER OF SIGNATORIES AS OF FEBRUARY 1, 1993: • 1,680 — all signatories are fellows or members of one or more national or international science academies

NOBEL LAUREATE SCIENTISTS: • 104 — a majority of scientists who have been awarded the Nobel prize

TOTAL NUMBER OF COUNTRIES REPRESENTED: • 70

SIGNATORIES FROM LEADING SCIENTIFIC ACADEMIES OR ASSOCIATIONS:

• Regional or Global Carlos Chagas, President, Latin American Academy of Sciences; Former President, Pontifical Academy of Sciences Mahdi Elmandjra, Vice President, African Academy of Sciences Mohammed H. A. Hassan, Executive Secretary, Third World Academy of Sciences Frederico Mayor, Director General, UNESCO M.G.K. Menon, President, International Council of Scientific Unions Abdus Salam, President, Third World Academy of Sciences

• National Carlos Aguirre, President, Bolivian Academy of Sciences Michael Atiyah, President, Royal Society (London) Adolph Butenandt, Former President, Max-Planck Institut, Germany Ennio Candotti, President, Brazilian Society for the Advancement of Science Johanna Dobereiner, First Secretary, Brazilian Academy of Sciences Dagfinn Follesdal, President, Norwegian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Frolov, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Carl-Olof Jacobson, Secretary-General, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Torvard Laurent, President, Royal SwedishAcademy of Sciences Leon Lederman, Chairman, American Association for the Advancement of Science Digby McLaren, Former President, Royal Society of Canada Gennady Mesiatz, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Gustavo Rivas Mijares, Former President, Venezuelan Academy of Sciences Oleg M. Nefedov, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Cyril Agodi Onwumechili, Former President, Academy of Sciences, Nigeria Yuri Ossipyan, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Autar Singh Paintal, Former President, Indian National Science Academy Sherwood Roland, President, American Association for the Advancement of Science Zhou Guang Zhao, President, Chinese Academy of Sciences

OTHER NOBEL LAUREATE SIGNATORIES: Camila Jose Cela, Spain Nadine Gordimer, South Africa Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa

Note: Affiliations are listed for identification purposes only. WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY

INTRODUCTION

Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.

THE ENVIRONMENT

The environment is suffering critical stress:

The Atmosphere

Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet radiation at the earth's surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests and crops.

Water Resources

Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the world's surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80 countries, containing 40% of the world's population. Pollution of rivers, lakes and ground water further limits the supply.

Oceans

Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of the world's food fish. The total marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste - some of it toxic.

Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment, is a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth's vegetated surface has been degraded - an area larger than India and China combined -and per capita food production in many parts of the world is decreasing. Forests

Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in a few years, and most of the tropical rain forest will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will go large numbers of plant and animal species.

Living Species

The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of all species now living, is especially serious. We are losing the potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the robustness of the world's biological systems and to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself.

Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or permanent. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation, may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming are still uncertain — with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very severe — but the potential risks are very great.

Our massive tampering with the world's interdependent web of life — coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate change — could trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.

Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency or delay in facing the threats. POPULATION

The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth's limits. Current economic practices which damage the environment, in both developed and underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.

Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion, while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today's 5.4 billion. But, even at this moment, one person in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.

No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished. WARNING

We the undersigned, senior members of the world's scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it, is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

WHAT WE MUST DO

Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed simultaneously:

1. We must bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend on.

We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and water. Priority must be given to the development of energy sources matched to third world needs — small scale and relatively easy to implement.

We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.

2. We must manage resources crucial to human welfare more effectively.

We must give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and other materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.

3. We must stabilize population. This will be possible only if all nations recognize that it requires improved social and economic conditions, and the adoption of effective, voluntary family planning.

4. We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.

5. We must ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women control over their own reproductive decisions.

The developed nations are the largest polluters in the world today. They must greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the global environment. The developed nations have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing nations, because only the developed nations have the financial resources and the technical skills for these tasks.

Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-interest: whether industriab'zed or not, we all have but one lifeboat. No nation can escape from injury when global biological systems are damaged. No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources. In addition, environmental and economic instabilities will cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for developed and undeveloped nations alike. Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental collapse.

Success in this global endeavor will require a great reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct of war — amounting to over $1 trillion annually — will be badly needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.

A new ethic is required — a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize the earth's limited capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This ethic must motivate a great movement, convincing reluctant leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the needed changes.

The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect people everywhere. We need the help of many.

We require the help of the world community of scientists — natural, social, economic, political;

We require the help of the world's business and industrial leaders;

We require the help of the world's religious leaders; and

We require the help of the world's peoples.

We call on all to join us in this task. WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY COMPLETE LIST OF SCIENTIST SIGNATORIES

Anatole Abragam France A. A. Baev Russia Max L. Birnstiel Austria Elihu Abrahams USA K. D. Bagshawe Great Britain J. Michael Bishop USA Jan D. Achenbach USA John Bahcall USA Peter Orlebar Bishop Australia Andreas Acrivos USA Achrnad Baiquni Indonesia Emilio Bizzi USA Paul R. Adams USA Wilson Baker Great Britain Sven Bjork Sweden Edward Adelberg USA Alexander M. Baldin Russia Anders Bjorklund Sweden Stephen L. Adler USA John Macleod Ball Great Britain Lars Olof Bjorn Sweden Harold M. Agnew USA Robert W. Balluffi USA Solgerd Bjorn-Rasmussen Sweden Carlos Aguirre Bolivia David Baltimore USA Roger D. Blandford USA Per Ahlberg Sweden Reynold Barbier France Hermann Karl Blaschko Great Britain K. Ahmad Bangladesh Henry Barcroft Great Britain Brebis Bleaney Great Britain Viqar Uddin Ahmad Pakistan Allen J. Bard USA Roger John Blin-Stoyle Great Britain Edward H. Ahrens, Jr. USA H. A. Barker USA Konrad E. Bloch USA Keiiti Aki USA Christopher R. Barnes Canada Lars Block Sweden Bruce M. Alberts USA Francisco J. Barrantes Argentina Nicolaas Bloembergen USA Per-Ake Albertsson Sweden George A. Bartholomew USA David Mervyn Blow Great Britain K. S. Aleksandrov Russia Neil Bartlett USA Baruch S. Blumberg USA R. McN. Alexander Great Britain Hyman Bass USA Thomas Leon Blundell Great Britain A. D. Alexandrov Russia George Keith Batchelor Great Britain Rudolf M. Bock Germany Zhores I. Alferov Russia David Bates Ireland Walter Bodmer Great Britain Claude J. Allegre France Alan H. Batten Canada Felix Boehm USA John Frank Allen Great Britain Alan R. Battersby Great Britain O. T. Bogomolov Russia Percival Allen Great Britain Etienne-Emile Baulieu France Hans G. Boham Sweden Lawrence H. Aller USA Geoffrey Herbert Beale Great Britain David Joseph Bohm Great Britain Francis K. A. Allotey Ghana Stanley Beck USA A. A. Bojartchuk Russia Gabriel A. Almond USA Hellmut Becker Germany Bert Bolin Sweden Mathew Alpern USA A. L. Beckwith Australia Hermann Bondi Great Britain Michael Philip Alpers Papua Jonathan R. Beckwith USA Friedrich Bonhoeffer Germany New Guinea Georg J. Bednorz Switzerland John T. Bonner USA Walter Alvarez USA Paul B. Beeson USA Armand Borel USA Ronny Ambjornsson Sweden Friedrich Begemann Germany Norman E. Borlaug USA Abram Amsel USA Friedrich-Karl Beier Germany Frederick Herbert Bormann USA Anne Anastasi USA Daniel Bekoe Ghana Gustav Victor Born Great Britain F. Alfred Anderer Germany Baruj Benacerraf USA Piet Borst Netherlands Ole Krogh Andersen Germany Earl P. Benditt USA Nils Olof Bosemark Sweden Kinsey A. Anderson USA George B. Benedek USA Rolf Bostrom Sweden Philip W. Anderson USA Gunnar Bengtsson Sweden Raoul Bott USA Wyatt W. Anderson USA Lennart Bengtsson Germany Gerard Bouchard Canada Meinrat O. Andreae Germany Michael V. L. Bennett USA Kenneth E. Boulding USA Henry N. Andrews, Jr. USA Bjorn-Erik Berglund Sweden Edouard Boureau France Christian B. Anfinsen USA Robert G. Bergman USA Frank Bovey USA How Ghee Ang Singapore Gernot H.Bergold Venezuela George E. P. Box USA Fred C. Anson USA Ingmar Bergstrom Sweden Brian Blundell Boycott Great Britain Werner Arber Switzerland Jan Bergstrom Sweden F. R. Boyd USA Clay M. Armstrong USA Sune Bergstrom Sweden Robert Boyd Great Britain Ulrich Arndt Great Britain Robert W. Berliner USA Paul D. Boyer USA Edward M. Arnett USA Louis Berlinguet Canada Derek Bradley Great Britain Juergen Aschoff Germany Howard A. Bern USA A. M. Bradshaw Germany Michael Ashburner Great Britain Sune Berndt Sweden Robert J. Braidwood USA Eric Ashby Great Britain Robert M. Berne USA Myron K. Brakke USA Michael Ashby Great Britain Jerome A. Berson USA Lewis M. Branscomb USA G. Gilbert Ashwell USA Daniel R. Bes Argentina John McC. Bremner USA Ivan Assenmacher France Marcel Bessis France Ronald Breslow USA Michael Atiyah Great Britain Hans A. Bethe USA Ricardo Bressani Guatemala Richard C. Atkinson USA Heinrich Betz Germany Mark Steven Bretscher Great Britain David Attenborough Great Britain Terrance J. Beveridge Canada Leo Brewer USA Robert Austrian USA R. J. H. Beverton Great Britain William B. Bridges USA Mary Ellen Avery USA Manfred Bierwisch Germany Winslow R. Briggs USA John C. Avise USA Jacob Bigeleisen USA Winston J. Brill USA Julius Axelrod USA Anders Bill Sweden Per Brinck Sweden Robert M. Axelrod USA Heinz Billing Germany Roy J. Britten USA Francisco J. Ayala USA Rupert Everett Billingham USA Peter Brix Germany Rasheed M. A. Azzam USA Kurt Binder Germany John R. Brobeck USA Robert F. Bacher USA Arthur John Birch Australia Bertram Broberg Ireland Howard L. Bachrach USA James Derek Birchall Great Britain Stanley J. Brodsky USA John Backus USA Adrian Peter Bird Great Britain Wallace S. Broecker USA Immanuel Broser Germany J. G. D. Clark Great Britain John M. Dawson USA. Daniel McGillivray Brown Great Britain Garry K. C. Clarke Canada Peter Day Great Britain Donald D. Brown USA Malcolm Roy Clarke Great Britain Luis D'croz Panama Gerald E. Brown USA Michael T. Clegg USA Gerard Debreu USA Keith S. Brown Brazil Christopher Cockerell Great Britain Pierre-Gilles de Gennes France Malcolm Brown Great Britain C. Clark Cockersham USA Hans G. Dehmelt USA Hermann Bruck Great Britain Marvin L. Cohen USA Johann Deisenhofer USA Keith A. Brueckner USA Melvin J. Cohen USA Albert de la Chapelle Finland Thomas C. Bruice USA Morrel H. Cohen USA Frederica De Laguna USA Lars Brundin Sweden Morris Cohen USA Pierre Deligne USA Fritz Buchthal USA Stanley Cohen USA Fe Del Mundo Philippines Amyand David Buckingham Great Britain Stanley N. Cohen USA H. F. DeLuca USA Kenneth George Budden Great Britain Philip P. Cohen USA Paul de Mayo Canada Gerardo Budowski Costa Rica Claude Cohen Tannoudji France Leopoldo De Meis Brazil Theodore H. Bullock USA Mildred Cohn USA Victor F. B. De Mello Brazil Benedict Delisle Burns Great Britain Paul Moritz Cohn Great Britain Paul-Yves Denis Canada Robert H. Burris USA Julian D. Cole USA Edward F. Denison USA Malcolm Burrows Great Britain James S. Coleman USA Jean-Francois Denisse France Elias Burstein USA Stirling A. Colgate USA Derek Denton Australia Glenn W. Burton USA R. John Collier USA Pierre Deslongchamps Canada Walter Bushuk Canada Eugene D. Commins USA Sukh Dev India Adolf Butenandt Germany Eric E. Conn USA Gerard de Vaucouleurs USA Colin Gasking Butler Great Britain Robert E. Connick USA Samuel Devons USA Ian Butterworth Great Britain Lincoln Constance USA Bryce S. DeWitt USA Nicola Cabibbo Italy Philip E. Converse USA Satish Dhawan India Sergio Cabrera Chile Richard Clive Cookson Great Britain Robert E. Dickinson USA John W. Cahn USA Douglas S. Coombs New Zealand Walter Dieminger Germany Hugh John Forster Cairns Great Britain Minor J. Coon USA Theodore O. Diener USA John Cairns, Jr. USA Douglas Harold Copp Canada David L. Dilcher USA Roberto Caldeyro-Barcia Uruguay Yves Coppens France Rodolfo Dirzo Mexico Christopher Calladine Great Britain Umberto Cordani Brazil Francis J. DiSalvo USA Roy Calne Great Britain E. J. Corey USA Frank J. Dixon USA A. G. W. Cameron USA Edred John Henry Corner Great Britain Gordon Henry Dixon Canada Paulo C. Campos Philippines John Cornforth Great Britain Johanna Dobereiner Brazil Ennio Candotti Brazil William R. Cornish Great Britain Eberhard Dodt Germany Manuel Cardona Germany Erminio Costa USA Peter Charles Doherty USA Lennart Carleson Sweden Jean Coulomb France Richard Doll Great Britain Eduardo Carpentieri Brazil Ernest D. Courant USA Joseph L. Doob USA K. K. Carroll Canada John Maxwell Cowley USA Russell F. Doolittle USA Hampton L. Carson USA George Brownlee Craig USA Bo Doos Austria Henri Cartan France Joaquin Cravioto Mexico Jean Dorst France Herbert E. Carter USA Bryce Crawford USA Volker Dose Germany Arthur J. Carty Canada Stanley J. Cristoi USA Paul Doty USA Hendrik Casimir Netherlands Eugene P. Cronkite USA Pierre Douzou France Raimond Castaing France Barry Cross Great Britain John Derek Dowell Great Britain Camilo Jose Cela Spain George A. Cross USA John E. Dowling USA Anthony Cerami USA Bernard Crossland Ireland Frank D. Drake USA Carlos Chagas Brazil Donald M. Crothers USA N. P. Dubinin Russia Joseph W. Chamberlain USA James F. Crow USA Hans-Peter Duerr Germany Sivaramakrishna Hector Croxatto Chile Renato Dulbecco USA Chandrasekhar India Michael Joseph Crumpton Great Britain Maxwell John Dunbar Canada Brian Charlesworth USA Paul J. Crutzen Germany Peter Duncumb Great Britair! Georges Charpak Switzerland Alexander Lamb Cullen Great Britain Jack David Dunitz Switzerland Joseph Chatt Great Britain David Roderick Curtis Australia Floyd Dunn USA E. P. Chelishev Russia Alan William Cuthbert Great Britain Thomas Dunne USA Shiing-Shen Chern USA Erik Dahmen Sweden Saeed A. Durrani Great Britain John A. Cherry Canada Frederick Sydney Dainton Great Britain Peter Leslie Dutton USA Christopher Chetsanga Zimbabwe Bertil Daneholt Sweden James L. Dye USA Geoffrey F. Chew USA James E. Darnell USA Eugene B. Dynkin USA Zang Hee Cho USA Partha Dasgupta Great Britain Heneri A. M. Dzinotyiweyi Zimbabwe Noam Chomsky USA William H. Daughaday USA James D. Ebert USA Virender Lai Chopra India Jean Dausset France Harrison Echols USA Gustave Choquet France Norman Davidson USA Rolf Edberg Sweden Yvonne Choquet-Bruhat France Ogulande Robert Davidson Sierra Leone Isidore S. Edelman USA Michel Chretien Canada Earl W. Davie USA Wolfgang Edelstein Germany John Wyrill Christian Great Britain Robert E. Davies USA John Marmion Edmond USA Derman Christopherson Great Britain Bernard D. Davis USA John T. Edsall USA Alexander E. Chudakov Russia George K. Davis USA Jan-Erik Edstrom Sweden George W. Clark USA James O. Davis USA John Hilton Edwards Great Britain J. Desmond Clark USA Margaret B. Davis USA Geoffrey Eglinton Great Britain Gerhard Regrjell Sweden Donald Sawyer Brazil Robert Louis Sinsheirner USA Edward Reich USA Howard K. Schachman USA Harald Sioli Germany Peter Reichard Sweden Kurt Schaffner Germany Alexej Sitenko Ukraine Gerardo Reichel-Dolmatoff Colombia Berta V. Scharrer USA Hugo Sjors Sweden Tadeus Reichstein Switzerland Evry Schatzman France Johannes Sjostrand France Frederick Reines USA Randy W. Schekman USA G. William Skinner USA Howard Reiss USA Jeff Schell Germany Jens C. Skou Denmark Peter M. Rentzepis USA John A. Schellman USA Charles Slack New Zealand James R. Rice USA Harold A. Scheraga USA Edward Slater Great Britain Stuart A. Rice USA Tore Schersten Sweden Stephen Smale USA Alexander Rich USA Martin Schlepper Germany Albert C. Smith USA Frederic M. Richards USA Reinhard Schloegl Germany David Smith Great Britain Burton Richter USA Hermann Schmalzried Germany Ernest Lester Smith Great Britain Charles M. Rick USA Rudi Schmid USA John D. Smith Great Britain Lorrin A. Riggs USA Hermann Ulrich Schmidt Germany John M. Smith Great Britain Ralph Riley Great Britain Maarten Schmidt USA Ian Sneddon Great Britain Claude Rimington Norway Knut Schmidt-Nielsen USA Esmond E. Snell USA Hans Ris USA Francis O. Schmitt USA George D. Snell USA Gustavo Rivas Mijares Venezuela Karl-Heinz Schmitter Germany G. P. Snitschev Russia Frederick C. Robbins USA Norbert Schmitz Germany G. S. Acevedo Mexico Derek Roberts Great Britain Dietrich Schneider Germany Yousef Sobouti Iran Michael Roberts South Africa David N. Schramm USA Volker Soergel Germany Morton S. Roberts USA Richard R. Schrock USA Robert R. Sokal USA Martin Rodbell USA Manfred R. Schroeder Germany B. S. Sokolov Russia Edwin Roedder USA Richard Evans Schultes USA E. N. Sokolov Russia Robert G. Roeder USA Hermann P. Schwan USA lonel Solomon France Juan Gualterio Roederer USA Henry P. Schwarcz Canada Davor Solter Germany Wendell L. Roelofs USA Laurent Schwartz France George N. Somero USA Heinrich Rohrer Switzerland Melvin Schwartz USA Christopher Somerville USA Ivan Roitt Great Britain Uli Schwarz Germany Edwin Southern Great Britain Bernard Roizman USA Julian Schwinger USA Richard Southwood Great Britain Reed C. Rollins USA Alastair Scott USA Wole Soyinka Nigeria Betty I. Roots Canada Nevin S. Scrimshaw USA Stephen Sparks Great Britain Irwin A. Rose USA Charles Scriver Canada George Sperling USA Rutger Rosenberg Sweden Glenn T. Seaborg USA Roger W. Sperry USA Emilio Rosenblueth Mexico William R. Sears USA Hans Wolfgang Spiess Germany Michael G. Rossmann USA Michael Seaton Great Britain Hyron Spinrad USA John R. Roth USA Leonid I. Sedov Russia Alexander S. Spirin Russia Miriam Rothschild Great Britain Irving E. Segal USA Audrey Spiro USA Aser Rothstein Canada Eugen Seibold Germany James M. Sprague USA Rudolf Rott Germany George E. Seidel USA Earl R. Stadtman USA Jean Rouxel France Michael Sela Israel Thressa Stadtman USA F. Sherwood Rowland USA Arne Semb-Johansson Norway Godfrey Stafford Great Britain Janet Rowley USA Luis Sequeira USA Franklin W. Stahl USA Carlo Rubbia Switzerland Andrew M. Sessler USA Peter Starlinger Germany Vera C. Rubin USA Nicholas Shackleton Great Britain G. Ledyard Stebbins USA Yuri N. Rudenko Russia Ascher H. Shapiro USA Robert Steinberg USA Malvin Ruderman USA Arun Kumar Sharma India Jack Steinberger Switzerland David Ruelle France Robert P. Sharp USA Jan Olof Stenflo Switzerland Gerhard Ruhenstroh-Bauer Germany Aaron J. Shatkin USA Lennart Stenflo Sweden Elizabeth S. Russell USA Roger N. Shepard USA Per Stenius Finland William J. Rutter USA Norman Sheppard Great Britain Gunther Sterba Germany Clarence A. Ryan USA Roger Sherfield Great Britain Hakan Sterky Sweden Nils Ryde Sweden Eytan Sheshinski Israel T. D. Stewart USA Albert Sabin USA Eugene M. Shoemaker USA Anders Stigebrandt Sweden Heinz Saedler Germany Frank Hsia-San Shu USA Leo Stodolsky Germany Carl Sagan USA Charles G. Sibley USA Walther Stoeckenius USA Roald Sagdeev USA Obaid Siddiqi India Boris Stoicheff Canada Ruth Sager USA Bina Shaheen Siddiqui Pakistan Michael Stolleis Germany Farrokh Saidi Iran Salimuzzaman Siddiqui Pakistan Andres O. M. Stoppani Argentina Abdus Salam Italy Kai M. Siegbahn Sweden Julius A. Stratton USA Francesco Salamini Germany Philip Siekevitz USA Jarl-Ove Stromberg Sweden Glenn W. Salisbury USA Thomas Silou Congo James Stubblefield Great Britain Edwin E. Salpeter USA Juan Silva Venezuela Paul K. Stumpf USA George Salt Great Britain Herbert Simon USA Julian M. Sturtevant USA Frederick Sanger Great Britain P. V. Simonov Russia John Sulston Great Britain Anthony San Pietro USA John Simons Great Britain Shu Sun China Fernando Santibanez Chile John A. Simpson USA Per Sundberg Sweden Alan Sargeson Australia S. J. Singer USA Azim Surani Great Britain Jose Sarukhan Mexico Wolf Singer Germany Gunnar Svardson Sweden Germany Govind Swarup India Martha Vaughan USA Rudolf Wienecke John A. Swets USA Sidney F. Velick USA Torsten N. Wiesel USA ' ,_ Germany x Henry Swinnerton-Dyer Great Britain John Verhoogen USA Helmut Wiesenthal Harry L. Swinney USA Martin Vessey Great Britain Jerome B. Wiesner USA Lynn R. Sykes USA Keith Vickerman Great Britain Arthur S. Wightman USA Sweden Robert Symons Australia Clibas Vieira Brazil Hans Wigzell Sweden John Synge Ireland Ashok K. Vijh Canada Anders Wijkman Germany Janos Szentagothai Hungary Frederick Vine Great Britain Rolf Wilhelm David Tabor Great Britain Bert Vogelstein USA Maurice H. F. Wilkins Great Britain Paul Talalay USA Tneo Vogler Germany David T. Wilkinson USA David W. Talmage USA Evon Zartman Vogt USA Geoffrey Wilkinson Great Britain Carl Olof Tamm Sweden Roland vonBothmer Sweden Denys Wilkinson Great Britain Jia-zhen Tan China Gerhart von Gierke Germany Richard Willems Estonia Olof Tandberg Sweden Klaus von Klitzing Germany Gordon R. Willey USA Andrzej Tarkowski Poland Diter von Wettstein Denmark Alwyn Williams Great Britain C. Richard Taylor USA Georg Henrik von Wright Finland Dudley Williams Great Britain J. Herbert Taylor USA Cecil H. Wadleigh USA Robin M. Williams, Jr. USA Valentine L. Telegdi Switzerland Salome G. Waelsch USA Phillip Williamson Sweden Kirthi Tennakone Sri Lanka Friedrich Wagner Germany Edward O. Wilson USA Rudolf K. Thauer Germany Ulla Wagner Sweden John Tuzo Wilson Canada Kenneth Thimann USA Warren H. Wagner USA Lawrence A. Wilson Trinidad & Walter Thirring Austria Ralph Wain Great Britain Tobago E. Donnall Thomas USA Salih J. Wakil USA Robert R. Wilson USA John Thomas Great Britain Richard Walcott New Zealand Tuzo Wilson Canada Brian Thrush Great Britain George Wald USA William J. Wilson USA Gunnar Tibell Sweden Jan Waldenstrom Sweden Shmuel Winograd USA S. L. Tichvinsky Russia Donald Walker Australia Evelyn M. Witkin USA George R. Tilton USA Duard L. Walker USA Bernhard Witkop USA Jan Tinbergen Netherlands Patrick Wall Great Britain Siegbert Witkowski Germany Samuel C. C. Ting USA Anthony F. C. Wallace USA Ralph S. Wolfe USA Peter Tiselius Sweden Bruce Wallace USA Arnold Wolfendale Great Britain Robert T. N. Tjian USA Hans Wallach USA Lincoln Wolfenstein USA James Tobin USA Henrik Wallgren Finland Etienne Wolff France Alexander Todd Great Britain Alan Walsh Australia Julian Wolpert USA Guenther Toelg Germany Herbert Walther Germany Peter G. Wolynes USA Jan Peter Toennies Germany E. T. S. Walton Ireland William B. Wood USA Susumu Tonegawa USA Yu Wang China Michael Woodruff Great Britain John G. Torrey USA Torre Wanngard Sweden Stephen Woods Great Britain Richard Tousey USA Philip Wareing Great Britain George M. Woodwell USA William Trager USA Prawase Wasi Thailand Michael Woolfson Great Britain Peter Traub Germany G. J. Wasserburg USA Gordon Wray Great Britain Thomas A. Trautner Germany George D. Watkins USA H. E. Wright USA Sam Treiman USA James D. Watson USA Carl Wunsch USA George H. Trilling USA Patty J. Watson USA Arne Wyller USA Joachim E. Truemper Germany Klaus Weber Germany Jeffries Wyman France Rudolf Truempy Switzerland Alvin M. Weinberg USA Vero Wynne-Edwards Great Britain Cheng Kui Tseng China Harold Weintraub USA Keith R. Yamamoto USA Daniel Chee Tsui USA Lawrence Weiskrantz Great Britain Fujia Yang China Carlos E. M. Tucti Brazil Herbert. Weissbach USA Charles Yanofsky USA Endel Tulving Canada Victor Weisskopf USA A. L. Yanshin Russia Hans Tuppy Austria Samuel I. Weissman USA Weizuo Ye Sweden Grenville Turner Great Britain Sherman M. Weissman USA Raymond N. Yong Canada Desmond Tutu South Africa Thomas Weller USA Alec Young Great Britain David Tyrrell Great Britain Julius Wess Germany John Young Great Britain Karen K. Uhlenbeck USA Richard West Great Britain Yongyuth Yuthavong Thailand Jonathan W. Uhr USA Thomas West Great Britain Zafar H. Zaidi Pakistan Staffan Ulfetrand Sweden Bengt Westerlund Sweden Christopher Zeeman Great Britain Axel Ullrich Germany George W. Wetherill USA E-An Zen USA Emil R. Unanue USA Ray J. Weymann USA Clarence Zener USA Hans Ussing Denmark Babette S. Whipple USA Lars Zetterberg Sweden Borje Uvnas Sweden Donald E. White USA Rolf Zetterstrom Sweden Jack Valentin Sweden Gilbert F. White USA Zhong-Xian Zhao China James W. Valentine USA Geroge W. Whitehead USA Guang-zhao Zhou China Kamil Valiev Russia John W. M. Whiting USA Roland Zimmermann Germany James Alfred Van Allen USA Peter Whittle Great Britain Norton D. Zinder USA Simon van der Meer Switzerland Kenneth B. Wiberg USA Solly Zuckerman Great Britain John Vane Great Britain Wolfgang Wickler Germany Tomas Zylicz Poland Harold E. Varmus USA Richard Wielebinski Germany Joseph E. Varner USA Anders Ehrenberg Sweden Michael Ellis Fisher USA G. P. Georgiev Russia Paul Ehrlich USA Val L. Fitch USA Heinz Gerischer Germany Klaus Eichrnann Germany Walter M. Fitch USA Wolfgang Gerok Germany Manfred Eigen Germany Richard Anthony Flavell USA Humam Bishara Ghassib Jordan Samuel Eilenberg USA Robert G. Fleagle USA Riccardo Giacconi USA Thomas Eisner USA Josef Fleckenstein Germany Juan Jose Giambiagi Brazil Gosta Ekspong Sweden Louis B. Flexner USA Ian Gibbons USA Mohamed T. El-Ashry USA Ekkehard Fluck Germany Eleanor Jack Gibson USA Daniel Douglas Eley Great Britain Gordon Elliott Fogg Great Britain Frank Gibson Australia Peter Elias USA Bjorn Folkow Sweden Quentin H. Gibson USA Arnt Eliassen Norway Dagfinn Follesdal Norway Alfred Gierer Germany Gertrude Elion USA Maurice Fontaine France Alberto A. G. Matto Peru Heinz Eilenberg Germany Hugh Ford Great Britain Harold S. Ginsberg USA Harry Elliot Great Britain Robert E. Forster USA Vitaly Ginzburg Russia Mahdi Elmandjra Morocco George McC. Foster USA Donald A. Glaser USA Ragnar Elmgren Sweden Leslie Fowden Great Britain Sheldon Lee Glashow USA Rolf Elofsson Sweden William A. Fowler USA Karl Georg Goetz Germany Hans Elsaesser Germany Maurice S. Fox USA Edward D. Goldberg USA Aina Elvius Sweden Tore Frangsrnyr Sweden Marvin L. Goldberger USA K. O. Emery USA Otto Frankel Australia Gerson Goldhaber USA Howard W. Emmons USA Hans Frauenfelder USA Gertrude Goldhaber USA Anders Enernar Sweden Karl Fredga Sweden Maurice Goldhaber USA Albert Engel USA Kerstin Fredga Sweden G. S. Golitsyn Russia Folker Engelmann Germany Donald S. Frederickson USA Robert Gomer USA Ellis Englesberg USA Irwin Fridovich USA Armando Gomez-Poyou Mexico Arne Engstrom Sweden Carl Frieden USA A. A. Gonchar Russia Lars Engwall Sweden Morris Enton Friedkin USA Ward Goodenough USA N. S. Enikolopov Russia Gerhart Friedlander USA Leo A. Goodman USA Ernanuel Epstein USA John B. Friedlander Canada Louis S. Goodman USA Anlhony Epstein Great Britain Herbert Friedman USA Leonard Goodwin Great Britain Paul Erdos Hungary Jerome I. Friedman USA Richard M. Goody USA Gunnar Eriksson Sweden K. V. Frolov Russia Coluthur Gopalan India Richard Ernst Switzerland Sture Fronaeus Sweden Nadine Gordimer South Afri'.-. W. G. Ernst USA Geoffrey Fryer Great Britain James P. Gordon USA Lars Ernster Sweden Vivian Fuchs Great Britain W. E. Gordon USA Vittorio Erspamer Italy Kenichi Fukui Japan Eville Gorham USA Gerhard Ertl Germany Peter Fulde Germany Kurt Gottfried USA Louis Essen Great Britain Yuan-Chen B. Fung USA Klaus Gottstein German) Ronald W. Estabrook USA Gerd Fussman Germany Stephen Jay Gould USA William K. Estes USA William Sefton Fyfe Canada James Gowans France Harold J. Evans USA Madhav Gadgil India Margaret Gowing Great Britain Howard E. Evans USA Mary K. Gaillard USA Christopher Graham Great Br.tam Douglas Hugh Everett Great Britain Carleton Gajdusek USA Ronald L. Graham USA James O. C. Ezeilo Nigeria Ernest Frederick Gale Great Britain Francis Graham-Smith Great Bt;i:<;-' Sandra M. Faber USA Joseph G. Gall USA Peter Grant USA Ludwig Faddeev Russia Fernand Gallais France Verne E. Grant USA L. M. Falicov USA Robert C. Gallo USA Hartmut Grassl German) Ugo Fano USA William A. Gambling Great Britain David Green Australia Gunnar Fant Sweden Rodrigo Gamez Costa Rica James Green Great Bri;ai<. Francis James Farley France Tord Ganelius Sweden Roger C. Green New Zealand Philip Fearnside Brazil Bjorn Ganning Sweden Paul Greengard USA Hugo Fechtig Germany Paul R. Garabedian USA Duncan Greenwood Great Bniahi Nina V. Fedoroff USA Antonio Garcia-Bellido Spain Norman Greenwood Great Briiain George Feher USA Leopoldo S. Garcia-Colin Mexico Peter Greenwood South Africa Charles Fehrenbach France Sven Gard Sweden Kenneth I. Greisen USA Geoffrey Bertram Feilden Great Britain Richard Lavenham Gardner Great Britain Ingmar Grenthe Sweden Peter Berners Fellgett Great Britain Wilford Gardner USA James B. Griffin USA Frank John Fenner Australia Hector Garduno Mexico Mikhael Gromov France Bo Fernholm Sweden Per Garegg Sweden David J. Gross USA John D. Ferry USA Percy Cyril Garnham Great Britain Jerome Gross USA Herman Feshbach USA Richard L. Garwin USA Ludwik Gross USA Joachim C. Fest Germany Ian Graham Gass Great Britain Franklin Grosveld Great Britain Robert Fettiplace USA Marshall Gates USA Rune Grubb Sweden George B. Field USA Raymond Gaze Great Britain Peter Gruss Germany Wolfgang Fikentscher Germany Theodore H. Geballe USA John Guest Great Britain Clement A. Finch USA Clifford Geertz USA Roger Guillemin USA David John Finney Scotland Walter Gehring Switzerland Bengt Gustafsson Sweden Ernst Otto Fischer Germany Johannes Geiss Switzerland Herbert S. Gutowsky USA Gunter S. Fischer Germany D. J. Wallace Geldart Canada Eberhard Gwinner Germany Inga Fischer-Hjalmars Sweden Murray Gell-Mann USA Lars Gyllensten Sweden Mahmoud Hafez Egypt Peter Higgs Great Britain Masao Ito Japan. Arne Hagberg Sweden Graham Higman Great Britain Kenneth Jack Great Britain Paul Hagenmuller France Ernest R. Hilgard USA J. David Jackson USA Torsten Hagerstrand Sweden H. Allen O. Hill Great Britain Francois Jacob France Erwin L. Hahn USA Robert L. Hill USA Maurice Jacob Switzerland Kenneth L. Hale USA Terrell L. Hill USA Carl-Olof Jacobson Sweden Gonzalo Halffter Mexico Wolfgang HillebtandV Germany Herbert Jaeckle Germany Kerstin Hall Sweden Mats Hillert Sweden Andre T. Jagendorf USA Robert N. Hall USA Robert Hinde Great Britain Peter Jagers Sweden Morris Halle USA Albert O. Hirschman USA Michael James Canada Ian Halliday Canada George H. Hitchings USA Dorothea Jameson USA John E. Halver USA Charles Hoare Great Britain Daniel H. Janzen USA M. A. Hamdan Jordan Gerhard P. Hochschild USA Cecilia Jarlskog Sweden Warren B. Hamilton USA Melvin Hochster USA Andre Jaumotte Belgium Sten Hammarstrom Sweden Charles F. Hockett USA Emil Quinto Javier Taiwan E. A. Hammel USA Dorothy Crowfoot Hodgkin USA Alec Jeffreys Great Britain Harold T. Hammel USA Gustavo Hoecker Salas Chile William P. Jencks USA George S. Hammond USA Donald F. Hoelzl Wallach USA David Jenkinson Great Britain Adnan Hamoui Kuwait Henry M. Hoenigswald USA Elwood V. Jensen Germany Philip C. Hanawalt USA Joseph F. Hoffman USA Mu Shik Jhon Korea, Rep. of Nicholas Handy Great Britain Roald Hoffmann USA Alf Johnels Sweden Jack R. Harlan USA Albrecht W. Hofmann Germany Louise Johnson Great Britain Gunnar Harling Sweden Klaus Hofmann USA Harold S. Johnston USA John Harper Great Britain Jan Hogbom Sweden Wolfgang K. Joklik USA William F. Harrington USA Ulf Hogstrom Sweden Pierre A. Joliot France John Harris Great Britain Pierre C. Hohenberg USA Bengt Jonsell Sweden Stephen C. Harrison USA John P. Holdren USA Bo Barker Jorgensen Germany Leland H. Hartwell USA Frank Hole USA Michel Jouvet France Cedric Hassall Great Britain Robert W. Holley USA Victor A. Kabanov Russia Mohammed H. A. Hassan Italy Robin Holliday Australia Jerome Karle USA Ahmed Hassanali Kenya Richard H. Holm USA Isabella Karle USA Michael Hassell Great Britain Ralph T. Holman USA Wibjorn Karlen Sweden Klaus Hasselmann Germany Nick Holonyak, Jr. USA Pierre Karli France Nils Hast Sweden Diether Hopf Germany Anders Karlqvist Sweden Marshall Hatch Australia John J. Hopfield USA Peter Karlson Germany Herbert A. Hauptman USA Gunnar Hoppe Sweden Erik Karlsson Sweden Emil W. Haury USA David Hopwood Great Britain Richard M. Karp USA Hermann A. Haus USA Lars Hormander Sweden Ephraim Katchalski-Katzir Israel Peter Hausen Germany Olof Hormander Sweden V. A. Katelnikov Russia Robert M. Hauser USA Gabriel Horn Great Britain Robert W. Kates USA Stephen Hawking Great Britain Donald F. Hornig USA Frederick I. B. Kayanja Uganda Lionel Haworth Great Britain Norman H. Horowitz USA Gerhard Kegel Germany Otto Haxel Germany Adrian Horridge Australia Ralph Kekwick Great Britain Elizabeth Hay USA Dorothy Horstman USA Leonid V. Keldysh Russia Walter Hayman Great Britain K.-A. Hossmann Germany Joseph B. Keller USA Robert H. Haynes Canada Rollin D. Hotchkiss USA Harold H. Kelley USA Robert Heap Great Britain John Houghton Great Britain V. I. Kellis-Borok Russia Oscar Heath Great Britain Louis N. Howard USA Anthony Kelly Great Britain Lars Inge Hedberg Sweden F. Clark Howell USA Arthur Kelman USA Olov Hedberg Sweden W. W. Howells USA Henry W. Kendall USA David S. Heeschen USA Sarah B. Hrdy USA • John C. Kendrew Great Britain D. M. Hegsted USA Kenneth J. Hsu Switzerland Bryce Kendrick Canada John Heilbron USA Run Huang China Donald Kennedy USA Carl E. Heiles USA Franz Huber Germany Allen Kerr Australia Charles B. Heiser, Jr. USA Robert Hudson Great Britain Warwick E. Kerr Brazil Carl-Henrik Heldin Sweden Nevin Hughes-Jones Great Britain Lars E. Kers Sweden Donald R. Helinski USA Rolf Huisgen Germany Elisabeth Kessler Sweden Staffan Helmfrid Sweden Derek Hull Great Britain Josephine G. Kety USA Torsten Hemberg Sweden Lamek Hulthen Sweden Nathan Keyfitz Austria Richard Henderson Great Britain Bengt Huitqvist Sweden I. M. Khalatnikov Russia William Henderson Great Britain Tony Hunter USA Maung-U Khin USA USA Hfctbart Hupptrt Gwdev S. Khush Philippines Thomas Henning Germany Jerard Hurwitz USA Susan W. Kieffer USA Ulf Henning Germany Torsten Husen Sweden Peder Kierkegaard Sweden Dudley Herschbach USA John W. Hutchinson USA Jan Erik Kihlstrom Sweden Ira Herskowitz USA Clyde A. Hutchison USA James L. Kinsey USA Gerhard Herzberg Canada Ola Inghe Sweden Vladimir A. Kirillin Russia Benno Hess Germany Alex Inkeles USA T. Kent Kirk USA Antony Hewish Great Britain Hiroshi Inose Japan Marc W. Kirschner USA Raymond Hide Great Britain Turner Timinipre Isoun Nigeria Georg Klein Sweden Alfred Klemm Germany Estella Bergere Leopold USA Boris Magasanik USA Daniel Kleppner USA Luna B. Leopold USA Swadesh M. Mahajan USA Mieczysaw Klimaszewski Poland Xavier Le Pichon France M. K. Mahmoud Egypt Aaron Klug Great Britain I'.ouir, Leprince-Ringuet France Joachim Maier Germany E. F. Knipling USA Jean Leray France Peter Maitlis Great Britain Andrew H. Knoll USA Leonard S. Lerman USA I. M. Makarov Russia Leon Knopoff USA Vladilen S. Letokhov Russia Lydia Phindile Makhubu Swaziland Jeremy Knowles USA Albert Levan Sweden Bernard Malgrange France Per-Goran Knutsson Sweden Willem J. M. Levelt Netherlands Khursheed Ahmad Malik Germany Jay K. Kochi USA Rita Levi-Montalcini Italy Edmond Malinvaud France George Koelle USA Rachmiel Levine USA Nils Malmer Sweden Joseph J. Kohn USA C. S. Levings, HI USA Goran Malmqvist Sweden Walter Kohn USA Jack Lewis Great Britain Bo Malmstrom Sweden Warner Koiter Netherlands Chang-Iin Li China Thomas F. Malone USA Janos Kornai Hungary Shan Tao Liao China Paul Mandel France Hans Kornberg Great Britain D. S. Lichatchev Russia Robert W. Mann USA I. D. Kovaltchenko Russia James Lighthill Great Britain Thaddeus Mann Great Britain Jean Kovalevsky France Gene E. Likens USA Eric Mansfield Great Britain William L. Kraushaar USA Frank Lilly USA Lynn Margulis USA Konrad B. Krauskopf USA Elon Lages Lima Brazil Paul A. Marks USA Edward A. Kravitz USA Odd Lindahl Sweden Robert Marshak USA John Krebs Great Britain Ulf Lindahl Sweden George Marline Brazil Hans Juergen Kreuzer Canada Kerstin Lindahl-Kiessling Sweden Matthew Maselson USA Lars Kristoferson Sweden Alf Lindberg Sweden Stephen Mason Great Britain Ekkehart Kroener Germany Bengt Lindberg Sweden Max V. Mathews USA V. N. Kudrjavtszev Russia Uno Lindberg Sweden Heinrich Matthaei Germany Klaus Kuehn Germany Dan L. Lindsley USA Peter Matthews Great Britain Hermann Kuemmel Germany Gardner Lindzey USA Richard Matthews New Zealand Hans Kuhn Switzerland Jacques Lions France Federico Mayor France Aderemi O. Kuku USA Stephen J. Lippard USA Ernst Mayr USA Sven Kullander Sweden William N. Lipscomb USA Maclyn McCarty USA Bertil Kullenberg Sweden Albert Litherland Canada James R. McConnell Ireland Ikuo Kushiro Japan John W. Littlefield USA William McCrea Great Britain Arthur H. Lachenbruch USA Chr. Llewellyn-Smith Great Britain James McGaugh USA Ulf Lagerkvist Sweden Stanislaw Lojasiewicz Poland Christopher F. McKee USA Devendra Lai USA Franklin A. Long USA Fred W. McLafferty USA Gerald Cecil Lalor Jamaica Michael S. Longuet-Higgins USA Anne McLaren Great Britain Michael Land Great Britain Erik Lonnroth Sweden Digby McLaren Canada Anton Lang USA Olli Lounasmaa Finland James E. Meade Great Britain Robert Langlands USA Bernard Lovell Great Britain Ernesto Medina Venezuela Yves Laporte France Francis E. Low USA Jerrold Meinwald USA Henry A. Lardy USA Per Olov Lowdin Sweden Georg Melchers Germany Kare Larsson Sweden Oliver H. Lowry USA Louis Menand, m USA Raymond Latarjet France Jane Lubchenco USA Mambillikalathi! Menon India Anthony Laughton Great Britain Cyril Lucas Great Britain Dietrich Menzel Germany Carl-Bertil Laurell Sweden R. Duncan Luce USA N. David Mermin USA Torvard Laurent Sweden Gerhart Lueders Germany Robert K. Merton USA Stephen M. Lawani Nigeria Reimar Luest Germany Edwin Mertz USA Peter Lawrence Great Britain Rolf Luft Sweden G. A. Mesiatz Russia Richard Laws Great Britain Ariel E. Lugo USA Leon Mestel Great Britain John Lawson Great Britain John Lund Great Britain Juergen Meyer-ter-Vehn Germany John H. Lawton Great Britain Bengt Lundberg Sweden Jan Michalski Poland Guy Lazorthes France Hans Lundberg Sweden Hartmut Michel Germany Alexander Leaf USA Ove Lundgren Sweden Charles D. Michener USA Christopher Leaver Great Britain Jan Lundqvist Sweden John Midwinter Great Britain Paul H. LeBlond Canada Stig Lundqvist Sweden John W. Miles USA Joel L. Lebowitz USA Hans Dieter Lux Germany Jacques Miller Australia Leon M. Lederman USA Donald Lynden-Bell Great Britain Brenda Milner Canada David M. Lee USA Roger Lynds USA Cesar Milstein Great Britain Patrick A. Lee USA Raymond Lyttleton Great Britain Beatrice Mintz USA Sang Soo Lee Korea, Rep. of Gordon J. F. MacDonald USA Mortimer Mishkin USA Yuan T. Lee USA J. Ross Macdonald USA Kurt Mislow USA Susan E. Leeman USA Alan MacKay Great Britain Frank Mitchell Ireland Louis Legendre Canada Allan Mackintosh Denmark J. Murdoch Mitchison Great Britain Erich L. Lehmann USA Peter T. Macklem Canada Ashesh Mitra India Jean-Marie Lehn France John MacMillan Great Britain Horst Mittelstaedt Germany Bo Lehnert Sweden Richard MacNeish USA C. C. Mjojo Malawi Jose Leite Lopes Brazil Robert MacPherson USA Franco Modigliani USA Pierre Lelong France Christopher H. D. Magadza Zimbabwe Bjorn Molin Sweden Wassily Leontief USA Antonio Magalhaes Brazil John L. Moll USA Peter Molnar USA Paul Nurse Great Britain Isadore Perlman USA . Salvador Moncada Great Britain John Nye Great Britain Charles Perrings USA • Carlos Monge C. Peru Peter Nye Great Britain Robert P. Perry USA ' s Andrei S. Monin Russia Peter Anyang' Nyong'o Kenya Walter L. Perry Great Britain Theodore Monod France Wilhelm Odelberg Sweden Richard E. Peter Canada Robert V. Moody Canada Howard Odum USA Jan Peters Germany Harold Alfred Mooney USA Dieter Oesterhelt Germany Richard Peto Great Britain Stephen Moorbath Great Britain Albert Offord Great Britain Gordon H. Pettengill USA Betty C. Moore USA Arne Ohman Sweden Ralf F. Pettersson Sweden Francis D. Moore USA Bengt Ohman Sweden Ulf Pettersson Sweden Jose Roberto Moreira Brazil Susumu Ohno USA John Pettigrew Australia Gregor Eugen Morfill Germany Bede Nwoye Okigbo Kenya F. J. Pettijohn USA Norbert R. Morgenstern Canada Mark Oliphant Australia John Philip Australia Clifford Mortimer USA David Olive Great Britain Bernard O. Phinney USA Newton E. Morton Great Britain Douglas L. Oliver USA Lillian M. Pickford Great Britain Aron A. Moscona USA Ivar Olovsson Sweden J. R. Pierce USA Marcos Moshinsky Mexico Everett C. Olson USA Leif Pihl Sweden Bernard Moss USA Ragnar Olsson Sweden Johannes Piiper Germany G. D. Mostow USA Ayub Khan Ommaya USA Alastair Pilkington Great Britain Nevill Mott Great Britain Cyril Agodi Onwumechili Great Britain Norman Pirie Great Britain Arthur Mourant Great Britain Leslie Orgel USA Colin S. Pittendrigh USA Peter Mahamudu Msolla Tanzania Gordon H. Orians USA Detlev Ploog Germany Guido Muench Germany Sten Orrenius Sweden John C. Polanyi Canada Amir Muhammed Pakistan Mary Jane Osborn USA Thomas D. Pollard USA Isabella Muir Great Britain Douglas D. Osheroff USA Martin Pollock Great Britain Teruaki Mukaiyama Japan Yuri S. Osipov Russia Wolfgang Pompe Germany Gerardo Lamas Muller Peru Yuri Ossipyan Russia Guido Pontecorvo Great Britain Klaus Muller Germany Gustaf Ostberg Sweden George J. Popjak USA Walter H. Munk USA Ernst Otten Germany Jerker Porath Sweden Anne Murray Sweden David Ottoson Sweden George Porter Great Britain Joseph E. Murray USA Guy Ourisson France Adrian Posnette Great Britain Kenneth Murray Great Britain Peter Overath Germany Leopold J. Pospisil USA Noreen Murray Great Britain Norman R. Pace USA John Postgate Great Britain Viktor Mutt Sweden Michael P. Paidoussis Canada Pierre Potier France Jack E. Myers USA Robert T. Paine USA Van R. Potter USA Lawrence A. Mysak Canada Autar Singh Paintal India Iain Prance Great Britain Saburo Nagakura Japan George E. Pake USA Reginald Preston Great Britain Jayant Vishnu Narlikar India George E. Palade USA Gerhardt Preuschen Germany Anwar Nasim Saudi Arabia Peter Palm Germany P. Buford Price USA Kim Nasmyth Austria Anita Dolly Panek Brazil Raymond A. Price Canada Walle J. H. Nauta USA Morton B. Panish USA Ilya Prigogine Belgium Joseph Needham Great Britain Alvin M. Pappenheimer USA Darwin J. Prockop USA James V. Neel USA Leo A. Paquette USA C. Ladd Prosser USA Louis Neel France Arthur B. Pardee USA Maurice Pryce Canada Yuval Ne'eman Israel Mary Lou Pardue USA Giampietro Puppi Italy O. M. Nefedov Russia Charles R. Park USA Edward M. Purcell USA Erwin Neher Germany Eugene N. Parker USA Dominick P. Purpura USA John Nelder Great Britain Geoffrey Parker Great Britain Dale Purves USA Oliver E. Nelson USA Robert G. Parr USA Willard V. Quine USA Norman F. Ness USA William Parry Great Britain Benton Rabinovitch USA Gerry Neugebauer USA George W. Parshall USA V. Radhakrishnan India Peter Neumann Germany Roger Parsons Great Britain Martin Raff Great Britain Hans Neurath USA Gerald Pattenden Great Britain G. N. Ramachandran India Eldon H. Newcomb USA Harry Paul Germany T. V. Ramakrishnan India Norman D. Newell USA Linus Pauling USA Claes Ramel Sweden Van Hieu Nguyen Vietnam Crodowaldo Pavan Brazil John Ramsay Switzerland Claus Nielsen Denmark D. W. Pearce Great Britain Bengt Ranby Sweden Frithiof Niordson Denmark Barbara Pearse Great Britain Seifallah Randjbar-Daemi Italy Marshall W. Nirenberg USA Ralph G. Pearson USA Philip Randle Great Britain Yasutomi Nishizuka Japan Jean-Claude Pecker France Helen M. Ranney USA Alfred Nisonoff USA Muhammad Abed Peerally Mauritius Chintamani Rao India John S. Nkoma Botswana Rudolf Peierls Great Britain Eduardo H. Rapoport Argentina Harry F. Noller USA Manuel Peimbert Mexico Anders Rapp Sweden Olle Nordell Sweden Stuart Arthur Penkett Great Britain A. M. Harun-Ar Rashid Bangladesh Bertil Nordenstam Sweden Roger Penrose Great Britain Lars Rask Sweden Carl Nordling Sweden Herbert Pereira Great Britain Marianne Rasmuson Sweden Staffan Normark USA Ruy Perez-Tamayo Mexico Peter H. Raven USA Rolf Norrestam Sweden Richard Perham Great Britain Richard J. Reed USA Helga Nowotny Austria David D. Perkins USA David Rees Great Britain Richard M. Noyes USA Donald Perkins Great Britain Martin J. Rees Great Britain World Scientists' Call for Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit

Attached is the World Scientists' Call for Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit, a document initiated by the Union of Concerned Scientists. This statement urges all government leaders to (1) act immediately to prevent die potentially devastating consequences of human-induced global warming, and (2) demonstrate a new commitment to protecting the global environment.

At the Climate Summit in Kyoto, Japan, to be held in December 1997, nations of die world will decide whedier to strengthen the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to effective controls on human practices affecting climate. In advance of the Summit, the Union of Concerned Scientists circulated the Call for Action for endorsement to leading scientists from around the world, including all scientists who have been awarded die Nobel Prize and National Academy-level scientists on all continents.

Nearly 1500 scientists have signed the Call to Action. Their signatures demonstrate that the world's senior scientific community believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that steps to address it must begin with meaningful action in Kyoto. A strong climate change treaty would further represent a landmark precedent for tackling odier grave environmental problems, many of which have worsened in recent years.

* Total number of signatories as of September 23, 1997: 1,496

<* Countries represented: 60

* Nobel laureates: 102, including 97 of the 171 living Nobel Prize winners in the sciences

* US National Medal of Science winners: 60

A list of selected prominent scientists who signed the Call for Action, as well as the full list of signatories, is also attached.

Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-91O5; 617-547-5552

Primed on recycled paper World Scientists' Call for Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit

Five years ago, in the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity, 1600 of the world's senior scientists sounded an unprecedented warning:

Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environ- ment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms.

Addressed to political, industrial, religious, and scientific leaders, the Warning demonstrated that the scientific community had reached a consensus that grave threats imperil the future of human- ity and the global environment. However, over four years have passed, and progress has been woefully inadequate. Some of the most serious problems have worsened. Invaluable time has been squandered because so few leaders have risen to the challenge.

The December 1997 Climate Summit in Kyoto, Japan, presents a unique opportunity. The world's political leaders can demonstrate a new commitment to the protection of the environ- ment. The goal is to strengthen the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to effective controls on human practices affecting climate.

This they can and must do, primarily by augmenting the Convention's voluntary measures with legally binding commitments to reduce industrial nations' emissions of heat-trapping gases signifi- candy below 1990 levels in accordance with a near-term timetable. Over time, developing nations must also be engaged in limiting their emissions. Developed and developing nations must cooper- ate to mitigate climatic disruption. The biosphere is a seamless web.

Completion of an effective treaty at Kyoto would address one of the most serious threats to the planet and to future generations. It would set a landmark precedent for addressing other grave environmental threats, many linked to climate change. It would demonstrate that the world's leaders have now recognized, in deeds and words, their responsibility for stewardship of the earth. The stark facts carry a clear signal:

There is only one responsible choice—to act now.

We, the signers of this declaration, urge all government leaders to demonstrate a new commit- ment to protecting the global environment for future generations. The important first step is to join in completing a strong and meaningful Climate Treaty at Kyoto. We encourage scientists and citizens around the world to hold their leaders accountable for addressing the global warm- ing threat. Leaders must take this first step to protect future generations from dire prospects that would result from failure to meet our responsibilities toward them. The Web of Environmental Effects Atmospheric Disruption Markets undervalue ecosystems worldwide and Predictions of global climatic change are becoming inflict few penalties against practices that do long- more confident. A broad consensus among the term environmental and resource damage. Political world s climatologists is that there is now "a discern- leadership must introduce incentives that reward ible human influence on global climate." sound practices.

Climate change is projected to raise sea levels, Water Scarcity and Food Security threatening populations and ecosystems in coastal Humanity now uses over one-half of the total regions. Warmer temperatures will lead to a more accessible freshwater runoff. Freshwater is the vigorous hydrologic cycle, increasing the prospects scarcest resource in the Middle East and in North for more intense rainfall, floods, or droughts in some Africa. Efforts to husband freshwater are not regions. Human health may be damaged by greater succeeding there, in East Asia, or in the Pacific, exposure to heat waves and droughts, and by encroachment of tropical diseases to higher latitudes. Global food production now appears to be outpaced by growth in consumption and population. There is The developing world is especially vulnerable to broad agreement that food demand will double by damage from climatic disruption because it is already 2030. Most land suitable for agriculture is already in under great stress and has less capacity to adapt. production. Sub-Saharan Africa's increase in agricul- tural production is one-third less than its population Climate Change: Linkages and Further Damage gfOwth The r£gion nQW produces g() percem of

Destructive logging and deforestation for agriculture what h consumeS) ^ per capita production is continue to wreak havoc on the world's remaining declining. Projections indicate that demand for food tropical forests. The burning of the Amazonian ram Jn Ask WJUexcee d ^ supply by 201Q forests continues largely unabated. Other forests in developed and developing nations are under heavy Thus, food consumption levels in many countries pressure. Destruction of forests greatly amplifies soil are likely to remain totally inadequate for good erosion and water wastage, is a major source of loss nutrition. Widespread undernutrition will persist of species, and undermines the environments natural unless extraordinary measures are taken to ensure ability to store carbon. It releases additional carbon food for all, measures not now even contemplated by to the atmosphere, thereby enhancing global governments. Climate change is likely to exacerbate warming. these food problems by adversely affecting water supplies, soil conditions, temperature tolerances, and Fossil-fueled energy use is climbing, both in indus- growing seasons, trial nations and in the developing world, adding to atmospheric carbon. Efforts to enhance energy Destruction of Species conservation and improve efficiency are much Climate change will accelerate the appalling pace at hindered by low energy costs and by perverse incen- which species are now being liquidated, especially in tives that encourage waste. Without firm commit- vulnerable ecosystems. One-fourth of the known ments, most industrial nations will not meet the species of mammals are threatened, and half of these carbon-emission goals they agreed to at the 1992 Rio may be gone within a decade. Possibly one-third of conference. The transition to renewable, non-fossil- all species may be lost before the end of the next carbon-based energy sources is feasible but is not in century. sight for lack of aggressive political will. Biodiversity gives stability to the ecosystems that we The insurance industry has recognized the risks are so dependent on, enhances their productivity, posed by climate change. Leading economists have and provides an important source of new foods, identified viable policies for reducing these risks. medicines, and other products. *

Sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-9105; 617-547-5552.

Printed on recycled paper Selected Prominent Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action

*> Nobel Laureates David M. Lee, USA. Physics 1996 Philip W. Anderson, USA. Physics 1977 Yuan T. Lee, Taiwan. Chemistry 1986 Kenneth J. Arrow, USA. Economics 1972 Jean-Marie Lehn, France. Chemistry 1987 Julius Axelrod, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1970 Wassily Leontief, USA. Economics 1973 David Baltimore, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1975 Rita Levi-Montalcini, Italy. Physiology/Medicine 1986 Georg J. Bednorz, Switzerland. Physics 1987 Edward B. Lewis, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1995 Baruj Benacerraf, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1980 William N. Lipscomb, USA. Chemistry 1976 Hans A. Bethe, USA. Physics 1967 Rudolph A. Marcus, USA. Chemistry 1992 J. Michael Bishop, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1989 Simon van der Meer, Switzerland. Physics 1984 James W. Black, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1988 R. Bruce Merrifield, USA. Chemistry 1984 Konrad E. Bloch, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1964 Hartmut Michel, Germany. Chemistry 1988 Nicolaas Bloembergen, USA. Physics 1981 Cesar Milstein, UK Physiology/Medicine 1984 Thomas R. Cech, USA. Chemistry 1989 Mario J. Molina, USA. Chemistry 1995 Stanley Cohen, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1986 Ben Mottelson, Denmark. Physics 1975 Elias James Corey, USA. Chemistry 1990 Joseph E. Murray, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1990 John W. Cornforth, UK. Chemistry 1975 Daniel Nathans, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1978 James W. Cronin, USA. Physics 1980 Louis Neel, France. Physics 1970 Paul J. Crutzen, Germany. Chemistry 1995 Erwin Neher, Germany. Physiology/Medicine 1991 Jean Dausset, France. Physiology/Medicine 1980 Marshall W. Nirenberg, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1968 Hans G. Dehmelt, USA. Physics 1989 Christiane Nusslein-Volhard, Germany. Physiology/ Johann Deisenhofer, USA. Chemistry 1988 Medicine 1995 Peter C. Doherty, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1996 Douglas D. Osheroff, USA. Physics 1996 Renato Dulbecco, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1975 George E. Palade, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1974 Christian R. de Duve, Belgium. Physiology/Medicine Max F. Perutz, UK Chemistry 1962 1974 John Polanyi, Canada. Chemistry 1986 Manfred Eigen, Germany. Chemistry 1967 Ilya Prigogine, Belgium. Chemistry 1977 Gertrude B. Elion, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1988 Norman F. Ramsey, USA. Physics 1989 Richard R. Ernst, Switzerland. Chemistry 1991 Burton Richter, USA. Physics 1976 Leo Esaki, Japan. Physics 1973 Richard J. Roberts, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1993 Edmond H. Fischer, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1992 Martin Rodbell, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1994 Ernst Otto Fischer, Germany. Chemistry 1973 Heinrich Rohrer, Switzerland. Physics 1986 Val L. Fitch, USA. Physics 1980 Joseph Rotblat, UK. Peace 1995 Jerome I. Friedman, USA. Physics 1990 F. Sherwood Rowland, USA. Chemistry 1995 Donald A. Glaser, USA. Physics I960 Bengt Samuelsson, Sweden. Physiology/Medicine 1982 Sheldon L. Glashow, USA. Physics 1979 Frederick Sanger, UK. Chemistry 1958, 1980 Herbert A Hauptman, USA. Chemistry 1985 Arthur L. Schawlow, USA. Physics 1981 Dudley Herschbach, USA. Chemistry 1986 Glenn T. Seaborg, USA. Chemistry 1951 Antony Hewish, UK. Physics 1974 Herbert A. Simon, USA. Economics 1978 Roald Hoffmann, USA. Chemistry 1981 Richard E. Smalley, USA. Chemistry 1996 Godfrey Hounsfield, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1979 Michael Smith, Canada. Chemistry 1993 David H. Hubel, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1981 Jack Steinberger, Switzerland. Physics 1988 Robert Huber, Germany. Chemistry 1988 Henry Taube, USA. Chemistry 1983 Jerome Karle, USA. Chemistry 1985 Richard E. Taylor, USA. Physics 1990 Henry W. Kendall, USA. Physics 1990 E. Donnall Thomas, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1990 John Kendrew, UK. Chemistry 1962 Samuel C. C. Ting, USA. Physics 1976 Klaus von Klitzing, Germany. Physics 1985 James Tobin, USA. Economics 1981 Aaron Klug, UK. Chemistry 1982 Susumu Tonegawa, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1987 Arthur Kornberg, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1959 Charles H. Townes, USA. Physics 1964 Edwin G. Krebs, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1992 Desmond Tutu, Soudi Africa. Peace 1984 Harold Kroto, UK. Chemistry 1996 John Vane, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1982 Leon M. Lederman, USA. Physics 1988 Thomas H. Weller, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1954 continued on reverse Sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-9105; 617-547-5552. Selected Prominent Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action

<« Nobel Laureates David M. Lee, USA. Physics 1996 Philip W. Anderson, USA. Physics 1977 Yuan T. Lee, Taiwan. Chemistry 1986 Kenneth J. Arrow, USA. Economics 1972 Jean-Marie Lehn, France. Chemistry 1987 Julius Axelrod, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1970 Wassily Leontief, USA. Economics 1973 David Baltimore, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1975 Rita Levi-Montalcini, Italy. Physiology/Medicine 1986 Georg J. Bednorz, Switzerland. Physics 1987 Edward B. Lewis, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1995 Baruj Benacerraf, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1980 William N. Lipscomb, USA. Chemistry 1976 Hans A. Bethe, USA. Physics 1967 Rudolph A. Marcus, USA. Chemistry 1992 J. Michael Bishop, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1989 Simon van der Meer, Switzerland. Physics 1984 James W. Black, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1988 R. Bruce Merrifield, USA. Chemistry 1984 Konrad E. Bloch, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1964 Hartmut Michel, Germany. Chemistry 1988 Nicolaas Bloembergen, USA. Physics 1981 Cesar Milstein, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1984 Thomas R. Cech, USA. Chemistry 1989 Mario J. Molina, USA. Chemistry 1995 Stanley Cohen, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1986 Ben Mottelson, Denmark. Physics 1975 Elias James Corey, USA. Chemistry 1990 Joseph E. Murray, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1990 John W. Cornforth, UK. Chemistry 1975 Daniel Nathans, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1978 James W. Cronin, USA. Physics 1980 Louis Neel, France. Physics 1970 Paul J. Crutzen, Germany. Chemistry 1995 Erwin Neher, Germany. Physiology/Medicine 1991 Jean Dausset, France. Physiology/Medicine 1980 Marshall W. Nirenberg, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1968 Hans G. Dehmelt, USA. Physics 1989 Christiane Nusslein-Volhard, Germany. Physiology/ Johann Deisenhofer, USA. Chemistry 1988 Medicine 1995 Peter C. Doherty, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1996 Douglas D. Osheroff, USA. Physics 1996 Renato Dulbecco, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1975 George E. Palade, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1974 Christian R. de Duve, Belgium. Physiology/Medicine Max F. Perutz, UK. Chemistry 1962 1974 John Polanyi, Canada. Chemistry 1986 Manfred Eigen, Germany. Chemistry 1967 Ilya Prigogine, Belgium. Chemistry 1977 Gertrude B. Elion, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1988 Norman F. Ramsey, USA. Physics 1989 Richard R. Ernst, Switzerland. Chemistry 1991 Burton Richter, USA. Physics 1976 Leo Esaki, Japan. Physics 1973 Richard J. Roberts, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1993 Edmond H. Fischer, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1992 Martin Rodbell, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1994 Ernst Otto Fischer, Germany. Chemistry 1973 Heinrich Rohrer, Switzerland. Physics 1986 Val L. Fitch, USA. Physics 1980 Joseph Rotblat, UK. Peace 1995 Jerome I. Friedman, USA. Physics 1990 F. Sherwood Rowland, USA. Chemistry 1995 Donald A. Glaser, USA. Physics I960 Bengt Samuelsson, Sweden. Physiology/Medicine 1982 Sheldon L. Glashow, USA. Physics 1979 Frederick Sanger, UK. Chemistry 1958, 1980 Herbert A. Hauptman, USA. Chemistry 1985 Arthur L. Schawlow, USA. Physics 1981 Dudley Herschbach, USA. Chemistry 1986 Glenn T. Seaborg, USA. Chemistry 1951 Antony Hewish, UK. Physics 1974 Herbert A. Simon, USA. Economics 1978 Roald Hoffmann, USA. Chemistry 1981 Richard E. Smalley, USA. Chemistry 1996 Godfrey Hounsfield, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1979 Michael Smith, Canada. Chemistry 1993 David H. Hubel, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1981 Jack Steinberger, Switzerland. Physics 1988 Robert Huber, Germany. Chemistry 1988 Henry Taube, USA. Chemistry 1983 Jerome Karle, USA. Chemistry 1985 Richard E. Taylor, USA. Physics 1990 Henry W. Kendall, USA. Physics 1990 E. Donnall Thomas, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1990 John Kendrew, UK. Chemistry 1962 Samuel C. C. Ting, USA. Physics 1976 Klaus von Klitzing, Germany. Physics 1985 James Tobin, USA. Economics 1981 Aaron Klug, UK. Chemistry 1982 Susumu Tonegawa, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1987 Arthur Kornberg, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1959 Charles H.Townes, USA. Physics 1964 Edwin G. Krebs, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1992 Desmond Tutu, South Africa. Peace 1984 Harold Kroto, UK. Chemistry 1996 John Vane, UK. Physiology/Medicine 1982 Leon M. Lederman, USA. Physics 1988 Thomas H. Weller, USA. Physiology/Medicine 1954 continued on reverse Sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, TWO Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-91O5; 617-547-5552. Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action

Anatole Abragam, France P. E. Auger, Canada Donald D. Betts, Canada Elihu Abrahams, USA John C. Avise, USA Terrance J. Beveridge, Canada Jan D. Achenbach, USA Julius Axelrod, USA J. Derek Bewley, Canada Andreas Acrivos, USA Francisco J. Ayala, USA Chittranjan Bhatia, India Alfred Rodney Adams, UK Edward Ayensu, Ghana R. G. S. Bidwell, Canada Robert McCormick Adams, USA Pedro Jose Aymonino, Argentina Klaus Biemann, USA R. O. Adegboye, Nigeria Howard L. Bachrach, USA Edward Bierstone, Canada Edward Adelberg, USA Lennart Back, Sweden Anders Bill, Sweden Sankar Adhya, USA Alan David Baddeley, UK C. J. Bishop, Canada Stephen L. Adler, USA G. P. Baerends, Netherlands Claude T. Bishop, Canada Ian Keith Affleck, Canada Kenneth Dawson Bagshawe, UK J. Michael Bishop, USA Harold M. Agnew, USA Roger Balian, France Peter Orlebar Bishop, Australia Carlos Aguirre, Bolivia John M. Ball, UK Sven Bjork, Sweden Paul G. Ahlquist, USA Robert W.Balluffi, USA Solgerd Bjorn-Rasmussen, Sweden Edward H. Ahrens, Jr., USA David Baltimore, USA Sir James W. Black, UK Muhammad Akhtar, UK Margaretta Baltscheffsky, Sweden David H. Blackwell, USA Jorgen Albertsson, Sweden Bernhard Banaschewski, Canada Roger A. Blais, Canada Per-Ake Albertsson, Sweden Allen J. Bard, USA Colin Blakemore, UK John Albery, UK G. I. Barenblatt, USA Roger John Blin-Stoyle, UK David John Aldous, USA Horace Basil Barlow, UK Timothy Vivian Bliss, UK Zhores I. Alferov, Russia Christopher R. Barnes, Canada Konrad E. Bloch, USA Mohammad Innas Ali, Bangladesh Claudio Barros, Chile Lars Block, Sweden Sir Geoffrey Allen, UK G. A. Bartholomew, Canada Nicolaas Bloembergen, USA John Frank Allen, UK Maurice Stevenson Bartlett, UK Myer Bloom, Canada Percival Allen, UK David V. Bates, Canada David Mervyn Blow, UK Jorge Eduardo Allende, Chile Bruno Battaglia, Italy SirTomBlundell, UK Francis K A. Allotey, Ghana Alan H. Batten, Canada Norman Keith Boardman, Australia Ronny Ambjornsson, Sweden Sir Alan Battersby, UK Sir Walter Bodmer, UK J. Aminu, Nigeria Geoffrey Herbert Beale, UK G. J. Boekschoten, Netherlands Abram Amsel, USA Sir James Beament, UK Diethard Kurt Bohme, Canada F. Alfred Anderer, Germany Luis Alberto Beauge", Argentina Pierre Bois, Canada Jan Mary Anderson, Australia Jonathan R, Beckwith, USA Bert Bolin, Sweden Kinsey A. Anderson, USA Georg J. Bednorz, Switzerland Quentin Bone, UK Philip V/ Anderson, USA Helmut Beinert, USA John T. Bonner, USA Goren Andersson, Sweden Daniel Bekoe, Ghana Armand Borel, USA Meinrat O. Andreae, Germany Jose L. Avila Bello, Venezuela Gustav Victor Born, UK A. Andreev, Russia Baruj Benacerraf, USA Piet Borst, Netherlands Hans Annersten, Sweden Bertil Bengtsson, Sweden Jonathan Michael Borwein, Canada Fred C. Anson, USA Lennart Bengtsson, Germany Anders Bostrom, Sweden Rafael Jesus Apitz-Castro, Venezuela Michael V. L. Bennett, USA Alan A. Boulton, Canada Robin L. Armstrong, Canada Fraser John Bergersen, Australia Edouard Boureau, France UlrichArndt,UK Bjorn Berglund, Sweden Geoffrey Allan Boxshall, UK David Arnett, USA Abram Bergson, USA Brian Blundell Boycott, UK Edward M. Arnett, USA Howard A. Bern, USA Sir Robert Boyd, UK James R. Arnold, USA Lars Bern, Sweden Alexander Marian Bradshaw, Vladimir Arnold, Russia Robert M. Berne, USA Germany Kenneth J. Arrow, USA Carl Gustaf Bernhard, Sweden Linda Braidwood, USA Antonio Ascenzi, Italy Alan Bernstein, Canada Robert Braidwood, USA Sir Eric Ash, UK R. Stephen Berry, USA Myron K. Brakke, USA Brigitte Askonas, UK Richard Bersohn, USA Daniel Branton, USA Gerald O. Aspinall, Canada Jerome A. Berson, USA Kenneth Noel Bray, UK Sir Michael Atiyah, UK Francesco Bertola, Italy Sydney Brenner, UK Tanya Atwater, USA HansA.Bethe,USA Ronald Breslow, USA continued on reverse Sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, TWO Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-91O5; 617-547-5552. Primed on recycled paper Aldo Bressan, Italy Pierre Chambon, France Sir David Cox, UK Ricardo Bressani, Guatemala Britton Chance, USA H. S. M. Coxeter, Canada Mark Steven Bretscher, UK Stephen K. Chandiwana, Zimbabwe James W. Cronin, USA William A. Bridget, Canada Sivaramakrishna Chandrasekhar, Sir Bernard Grassland, UK Window R. Briggs, USA India James F. Crow, USA Frank Brink, Jr., USA Kung Ching Chang, China Horacio Croxatto, Chile RoyJ. Britten, USA Keith Frederick Chater, UK Durward Cruickshank, UK Peter Brix, Germany Zhong-Wei Chen, China Michael Joseph Crumpton, UK Wallace S. Broecker, USA Christopher J. Chetsanga, Zimbabwe Alexander Lamb Cullen, UK Adrian G. Brook, Canada Geoffrey F. Chew, USA William R. Cullen, Canada Daniel McGillivray Brown, UK Mark Sheard Child, UK David Roderick Curtis, Australia Donald D. Brown, USA Dennis Chitty, Canada Alan William Cuthbert, UK Fritz Buchthal, USA Eric Chivian, USA Bjorn Dahlback, Sweden Amyand David Buckingham, UK Noam Chomsky, USA Alf-Goran Dahlberg, Sweden Theodore H. Bullock, USA Virender Lai Chopra, India Erik Dahmen, Sweden David R. Bundle, Canada Gustave Choquet, France Alexander Dalgarno, USA B. Clark Burchfiel, USA Maarten J. Chrispeels, USA Brent Dalrymple, USA Benedict Delisle Burns, UK John Wyrill Christian, UK Herman Daly, USA Robert H. Burris, USA Robert F. Christy, USA Bertil Daneholt, Sweden Malcolm Burrows, UK Gabriel Chuchani, Venezuela Edwin E. Daniel, Canada Ian Burton, Canada Philippe Ciarlet, France Ranjan Roy Daniel, India Kenneth Burton, UK B. Cinader, Canada Pierre Dansereau, Canada Gerd Buschhorn, Germany Tord Claeson, Sweden James E. Darnell, USA Walter Bushuk, Canada George W.Clark, USA Partha Dasgupta, UK Friedrich H. Busse, Germany Arthur C. Clarke, Sri Lanka William H. Daughaday, USA Eduardo Bustos-Obregon, Chile Patricia Hannah Clarke, UK Jean Dausset, France Colin Gasking Butler, UK Michael T. Clegg, USA Kenneth Davidson, Canada Anthony Edward Butterworth, UK John A. Clements, USA Donald Watts Davies, UK Ian Butterworth, UK Thomas W.Cline, USA Edward Brian Davies, UK Henri Cabannes, France William Cochran, UK Julian Davies, Canada G. C. Cadde, Netherlands Marshall H. Cohen, USA George K. Davis, USA Alain B. Caille, Canada Seymour S. Cohen, USA Margaret B. Davis, USA John Cairns, Jr., USA Stanley Cohen, USA Ronald W. Davis, USA W. G. E. Caldwell, Canada Claude Cohen-Tannoudji, France Luis D'croz, Panama Sir Roy Calne, UK Johan Colding, Sweden Adolfo J. de Bold, Canada Allan M. Campbell, USA R. John Collier, USA Antonio Paes de Carvalho, Brazil E. J. Moran Campbell, Canada Umberto Colombo, Italy Jacques de Champlain, Canada Paulo C. Campos, Philippines John Sparby Colter, Canada Sonia Machado de Dietrich, Brazil Claude R. Canizares, USA Harold C. Conklin, USA Christian R. de Duve, Belgium Federico Capasso, USA Eric E. Conn, USA Albert de la Chapelle, USA Mario R. Capecchi, USA Robert E. Connick, USA Ramon R. Latorre de la Cruz, Chile Lennart Carleson, Sweden Ralf Conrad, Germany Frederica de Laguna, USA Per Carlson, Sweden Philip E. Converse, USA Leopoldo De Meis, Brazil Eduardo Carpentieri, Brazil Jacinto Convit, Venezuela Fernando G. De Mello, Brazil Sergio Carra, Italy B. E. Conway, Canada Hans G. Dehmelt, USA Hampton Carson, USA Richard Clive Cookson, UK Joharin Deisenhofer, USA Allan Carswell, Canada Douglas S. Coombs, New Zealand Arnold L. Demain, USA Charles P. Casey, USA John Philip Cooper, UK Paul-Yves Denis, Canada Donald L. D. Caspar, USA D. Harold Copp, Canada Derek Denton, Australia Thomas R. Cech, USA Umberto Cordani, Brazil Stanley Deser, USA Petr Cerny, Canada E. J. Corey, USA Sukh Dev, India Peter Chadwick, UK Sir John Cornforth, UK Satish Dhawan, India Carlos Chagas, Brazil Robert Corriu, France Samba Diallo, Senegal Hernan Chaimovich, Brazil Erminio Costa, USA Lloyd Dickie, Canada Animesh Chakravorty, India Ernest D. Courant, USA Erwin Diener, Canada Joseph W. Chamberlain, USA John Maxwell Cowley, USA Theodore O. Diener, USA Carrie Chambers, USA Charles S. Cox, USA Reinaldo Di Polo, Venezuela continued Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action Anatole Abragam, France P. E. Auger, Canada Donald D. Betts, Canada Elihu Abrahams, USA John C. Avise, USA Terrance J. Beveridge, Canada Jan D. Achenbach, USA Julius Axelrod, USA J. Derek Bewley, Canada Andreas Acrivos, USA Francisco J. Ayala, USA Chittranjan Bhatia, India Alfred Rodney Adams, UK Edward Ayensu, Ghana R. G. S. Bidwell, Canada Robert McCormick Adams, USA Pedro Jose Aymonino, Argentina Klaus Biemann, USA R. O. Adegboye, Nigeria Howard L. Bachrach, USA Edward Bierstone, Canada Edward Adelberg, USA Lennart Back, Sweden Anders Bill, Sweden Sankar Adhya, USA Alan David Baddeley, UK C. J. Bishop, Canada Stephen L. Adler, USA G. P. Baerends, Netherlands Claude T. Bishop, Canada Ian Keith Affleck, Canada Kenneth Dawson Bagshawe, UK J. Michael Bishop, USA Harold M. Agnew, USA Roger Balian, France Peter Orlebar Bishop, Australia Carlos Aguirre, Bolivia John M. Ball, UK Sven Bjork, Sweden Paul G. Ablquist, USA Robert W.Balluffi, USA Solgerd Bjorn-Rasmussen, Sweden Edward H. Ahrens, Jr., USA David Baltimore, USA Sir James W. Black, UK Muhammad Akhtar, UK Margaretta Baltscheffsky, Sweden David H. Blackwell, USA Jorgen Albertsson, Sweden Bernhard Banaschewski, Canada Roger A. Blais, Canada Per-Ake Albertsson, Sweden Allen J. Bard, USA Colin Blakemore, UK JohnAlbery,UK G. I. Barenblatt, USA Roger John Blin-Stoyle, UK David John Aldous, USA Horace Basil Barlow, UK Timothy Vivian Bliss, UK Zhores I. Alferov, Russia Christopher R. Barnes, Canada Konrad E. Bloch, USA Mohammad Innas AH, Bangladesh Claudio Barros, Chile Lars Block, Sweden Sir Geoffrey Allen, UK G. A. Bartholomew, Canada Nicolaas Bloembergen, USA John Frank Allen, UK Maurice Stevenson Bartlett, UK Myer Bloom, Canada Percival Allen, UK David V. Bates, Canada David Mervyn Blow, UK Jorge Eduardo Allende, Chile Bruno Battaglia, Italy SirTomBlundell, UK Francis K. A. Allotey, Ghana Alan H. Batten, Canada Norman Keith Boardman, Australia RonnyAmbjornsson, Sweden Sir Alan Battersby, UK Sir Walter Bodmer, UK J. Aminu, Nigeria Geoffrey Herbert Beale, UK G. J. Boekschoten, Netherlands Abram Amsel, USA Sir James Beament, UK Diethard Kurt Bohme, Canada F. Alfred Anderer, Germany Luis Alberto Beauge", Argentina Pierre Bois, Canada Jan Mary Anderson, Australia Jonathan R. Beckwith, USA Bert Bolin, Sweden Kinsey A. Anderson, USA Georg J. Bednorz, Switzerland Quentin Bone, UK Philip W Anderson, USA Helmut Beinert, USA John T. Bonner, USA Goren Andersson, Sweden Daniel Bekoe, Ghana Armand Borel, USA Meinrat O. Andreae, Germany Jose L. Avila Bello, Venezuela Gustav Victor Born, UK A. Andreev, Russia Baruj Benacerraf, USA Piet Borst, Netherlands Hans Annersten, Sweden Bertil Bengtsson, Sweden Jonathan Michael Borwein, Canada Fred C. Anson, USA Lennart Bengtsson, Germany Anders Bostrom, Sweden Rafael Jesus Apitz-Castro, Venezuela Michael V. L. Bennett, USA Alan A. Boulton, Canada 1 Robin L. Armstrong, Canada Fraser John Bergerseri, Australia Edouard Boureau, France UlrichArndt,UK Bjorn Berglund, Sweden Geoffrey Allan Boxshall, UK David Arnett, USA Abram Bergson, USA Brian Blundell Boycott, UK Edward M. Arnett, USA Howard A. Bern, USA Sir Robert Boyd, UK James R. Arnold, USA Lars Bern, Sweden Alexander Marian Bradshaw, Vladimir Arnold, Russia Robert M. Berne, USA Germany Kenneth J. Arrow, USA Carl Gustaf Bernhard, Sweden Linda Braidwood, USA Antonio Ascenzi, Italy Alan Bernstein, Canada Robert Braidwood, USA Sir Eric Ash, UK R. Stephen Berry, USA Myron K. Brakke, USA Brigitte Askonas, UK Richard Bersohn, USA Daniel Branton, USA Gerald O. Aspinall, Canada Jerome A. Berson, USA Kenneth Noel Bray, UK Sir Michael Atiyah, UK Francesco Bertola, Italy Sydney Brenner, UK Tanya Atwater, USA Hans A. Bethe, USA Ronald Breslow, USA continued on reverse Sponsored by the union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-91O5; 617-547-5552. Printed on recycled paper Aldo Bressan, Italy Pierre Chambon, France Sir David Cox, UK Ricardo Bressani, Guatemala Britton Chance, USA H. S. M. Coxeter, Canada Mark Steven Bretscher, UK Stephen K. Chandiwana, Zimbabwe James W. Cronin, USA William A. Bridget, Canada Sivaramakrishna Chandrasekhar, Sir Bernard Grassland, UK Winslow R. Briggs, USA India James F. Crow, USA Frank Brink, Jr., USA Kung Ching Chang, China Horacio Croxatto, Chile Roy J. Britten, USA Keith Frederick Chater, UK Durward Cruickshank, UK Peter Brix, Germany Zhong-Wei Chen, China Michael Joseph Crumpton, UK Wallace S. Broecker, USA Christopher J. Chetsanga, Zimbabwe Alexander Lamb Cullen, UK Adrian G. Brook, Canada Geoffrey F. Chew, USA William R. Cullen, Canada Daniel McGillivray Brown, UK Mark Sheard Child, UK David Roderick Curtis, Australia Donald D. Brown, USA Dennis Chitty, Canada Alan William Cuthbert, UK Fritz Buchthal, USA Eric Chivian, USA Bjorn Dahlback, Sweden Amyand David Buckingham, UK Noam Chomsky, USA Alf-Goran Dahlberg, Sweden Theodore H. Bullock, USA Virender Lai Chopra, India Erik Dahmen, Sweden David R. Bundle, Canada Gustave Choquet, France Alexander Dalgarno, USA B. Clark Burchfiel, USA Maarten J. Chrispeels, USA Brent Dalrymple, USA Benedict Delisle Burns, UK John Wyrill Christian, UK Herman Daly, USA Robert H. Burris, USA Robert F. Christy, USA Bertil Daneholt, Sweden Malcolm Burrows, UK Gabriel Chuchani, Venezuela Edwin E. Daniel, Canada Ian Burton, Canada Philippe Ciarlet, France Ranjan Roy Daniel, India Kenneth Burton, UK B. Cinader, Canada Pierre Dansereau, Canada Gerd Buschhorn, Germany Tord Claeson, Sweden James E. Darnell, USA Walter Bushuk, Canada George W.Clark, USA Partha Dasgupta, UK Friedrich H. Busse, Germany Arthur C. Clarke, Sri Lanka William H. Daughaday, USA Eduardo Bustos-Obregon, Chile Patricia Hannah Clarke, UK Jean Dausset, France Colin Gasking Butler, UK Michael T. Clegg, USA Kenneth Davidson, Canada Anthony Edward Butterworth, UK John A. Clements, USA Donald Watts Davies, UK Ian Butterworth, UK Thomas W.Cline, USA Edward Brian Davies, UK Henri Cabannes, France William Cochran, UK Julian Davies, Canada G. C. Cadee, Netherlands Marshall H. Cohen, USA George K Davis, USA Alain B. Caille, Canada Seymour S. Cohen, USA Margaret B. Davis, USA John Cairns, Jr., USA Stanley Cohen, USA Ronald W.Davis, USA W. G. E. Caldwell, Canada Claude Cohen-Tannoudji, France Luis D'croz, Panama Sir Roy Calne, UK Johan Colding, Sweden Adolfo J. de Bold, Canada Allan M. Campbell, USA R. John Collier, USA Antonio Paes de Carvalho, Brazil E. J. Moran Campbell, Canada Umberto Colombo, Italy Jacques de Champlain, Canada Paulo C. Campos, Philippines John Sparby Colter, Canada Sonia Machado de Dietrich, Brazil Claude R. Canizares, USA Harold C. Conklin, USA Christian R. de Duve, Belgium Federico Capasso, USA Eric E. Conn, USA Albert de la Chapelle, USA Mario R. Capecchi, USA Robert E. Connick, USA Ramon R. Latorre de la Cruz, Chile Lennart Carleson, Sweden Ralf Conrad, Germany Frederica de Laguna, USA Per Carlson, Sweden Philip E. Converse, USA Leopoldo De Meis, Brazil Eduardo Carpenderi, Brazil Jacinto Convit, Venezuela Fernando G. De Mello, Brazil Sergio Carra, Italy B. E. Conway, Canada Hans G. Dehmelt, USA Hampton Carson, USA' Richard Clive Cookson, UK Johanh Deisenhofer, USA Allan Carswell, Canada Douglas S. Coombs, New Zealand Arnold L. Demain, USA Charles P. Casey, USA John Philip Cooper, UK Paul-Yves Denis, Canada Donald L. D. Caspar, USA D. Harold Copp, Canada Derek Denton, Australia Thomas R. Cech, USA Umberto Cordani, Brazil Stanley Deser, USA Petr Cerny, Canada E. J. Corey, USA Sukh Dev, India Peter Chadwick, UK Sir John Cornforth, UK Satish Dhawan, India Carlos Chagas, Brazil Robert Corriu, France Samba Diallo, Senegal Hernan Chaimovich, Brazil Erminio Costa, USA Lloyd Dickie, Canada Animesh Chakravorty, India Ernest D. Courant, USA Erwin Diener, Canada Joseph W. Chamberlain, USA John Maxwell Cowley, USA Theodore O. Diener, USA Carrie Chambers, USA Charles S. Cox, USA Reinaldo Di Polo, Venezuela continued Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action, continued Frank J. Dixon, USA Howard Evans, USA Frederick Gerard Friedlander, UK Richard Newland Dixon, UK Douglas Hugh Everett, UK Gerhart Friedlander, USA Johanna Dobereiner, Brazil Esmat Shehata Ezzat, Egypt Jerome I. Friedman, USA George Guy Dodson, UK Sandra M. Faber, USA Sydney M. Friedman, Canada Peter Charles Doherty, USA Douglas Scott Falconer, UK Peter Fritz, Germany Sir Richard Doll, UK Stanley Falkow, USA Geoffrey Fryer, UK Edward M. Donaldson, Canada Carl-Gunne Falthammar, Sweden Sir Vivian Fuchs, UK Joseph L. Doob, USA Gunnar Fant, Sweden Peter Fulde, Germany Russell F. Doolicde, USA Emmanuel Farber, USA Yuan-Chen B. Fung, USA Bo Doos, Austria Dariush D. Farhud, Iran Gerd Fussmann, Germany Volker Dose, Germany David M. Farmer, Canada William S. Fyfe, Canada John Derek Dowell, UK Paul Fatt, UK Erwin Gabathuler, UK Roger Downer, Thailand Oleg N. Favorsky, Russia Mary K. Gaillard, USA R. Keith Downey, Canada DonW. Fawcett, USA Robert Galamos, USA Aleksis Dreimanis, Canada Philip M. Fearnside, Brazil Joseph G. Gall, USA Renato Dulbecco, USA R. A. Feddes, Netherlands Dionigi Galletto, Italy Moira Dunbar, Canada Nina V.Fedorofif, USA Dieter Gallwitz, Germany Peter Duncumb, UK Geofrrey Bertram Feilden, UK William Alexander Gambling, E. K. Duursma, France Peter Berners Fellgett, UK China James L. Dye, USA Frank John Fenner, Australia Rodrigo Gamez, Costa Rica Eugene B. Dynkin, USA J. K W. Ferguson, Canada Fuxi Gan, China Connie Jean Eaves, Canada Malcolm Andrew Ferguson-Smith, Elisabeth Gantt, USA Wolfgang Edelstein, Germany UK Harald Ganzinger, Germany Mary Edmonds, USA Sergio Henrique Ferreira, Brazil Leopoldo S. Garcia-Colin, Mexico John T. Edsall, USA Bruno Ferretti, Italy Per Garegg, Sweden David Olaf Edwards, USA Herman Feshbach, USA Patricio J. Garrahan, Argentina Paul Ehrlich, USA Peter A. Fillmore, Canada Stanely M. Gartler, USA Klaus Eichmann, Germany John Thomas Finch, UK Raffaele Raoul Gatto, Switzerland Manfred Eigen, Germany Gerald R. Fink, USA Roger Gautheret, France Thomas Eisner, USA David John Finney, UK Raymond Gaze, UK Curt Ekstrom, Sweden Edmond H. Fischer, USA Theodore H. Geballe, USA Mohamed T. El-Ashry, USA Ernst Otto Fischer, Germany Frederick W. Gehring, USA Mohamed Mostafa El-Fouly, Egypt Michael Ellis Fisher, USA Jacques Genest, Canada Peter Elias, USA Val L. Fitch, USA Humam Bishara Ghassib, Jordan Arm Eliassen, Norway Robert G. Fleagle, USA Frank Gibson, Australia Gertrude Elion, USA T. Geofrrey Flynn, Canada Quentin H. Gibson, USA Sir Roger Elliott, UK Gordon Elliott Fogg, UK W. Gieskes, Netherlands Mahdi Elmandjra, Morocco Carl Folke, Sweden Norman Giles, USA Aina Elvius, Sweden Sir Hugh Ford, UK Khem Singh Gill, India Aant Elzinga, Sweden Robert E. Forster, USA Harold S. Ginsberg, USA K. O. Emery, USA Giorgio Ford, Italy Donald Glaser, USA Howard W. Emmons, USA George M. Foster, Jr., USA Sheldon Lee Glashow, USA John Edwin Enderby, UK Sir Leslie Fowden, UK Peter Goddard, UK Folker Engelmann, Germany Marye Anne Fox, USA David V. Goeddel, USA Ellis Englesberg, USA Maurice S. Fox, USA Lome W. Gold, Canada Sir Anthony Epstein, UK Ludwig Edward Fraenkel, UK Phil Gold, Canada Lars Ericson, Sweden Paul Fraisse, France Vitalii I. Goldanskii, Russia Torleif Ericson, Switzerland F. Clarke Fraser, Canada Edward D. Goldberg, USA Robert Erikson, Sweden Carlo Caputo Frauenfelder, Marvin L. Goldberger, USA Richard Ernst, Switzerland Venezuela Josd Goldemberg, Brazil Christer Erseus, Sweden Karl Fredga, Sweden Gerson Goldhaber, USA Gerhard Ertl, Germany Donald S. Fredrickson, USA Robert Gomer, USA Leo Esaki, Japan Raymond Freeman, UK Ligia Gargallo Gonzalez, Chile Ronald W Estabrook, USA Carl Frieden, USA A. M. Goodwin, Canada William K. Estes, USA Morris Enton Friedkin, USA Leonard Goodwin, UK continued on reverse Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-9105 Eville Gorham, USA Henry C. Harpending, USA Sir Robert Honeycombe, UK Jack Gorski, USA John Harris, UK Guo-fan Hong, China Sir James Gowans, UK Bryan Harrison, UK W. Hoogland, Netherlands Christopher Graham, UK Stanley R. Hart, USA Gunnar Hoppe, Sweden Sir Francis Graham-Smith, UK Brian Hardey, UK Sir David Hopwood, UK Edmond E. Granirer, Canada A. M. Harun Ar-Rashid, Bangladesh SirJohnHorlock,UK Olavi Grano, Finland Cedric Hassall, UK Lars Hormander, Sweden Ian Philip Grant, UK Mohammed H. A. Hassan, Italy Olof Hormander, Sweden Peter Grant, USA Ahmed Hassanali, Kenya Gabriel Horn, UK Verne E. Grant, USA Klaus Hasselmann, Germany Donald F. Hornig, USA William F. Grant, Canada G. F. Hattersley-Smidi, UK Norman H. Horowitz, USA Hartmut Grassl, Germany Herbert A. Hauptman, USA Konstantin-Alexander Hossmann, Michael W. Gray, Canada Richard J.Havel, USA Germany Roger C. Green, New Zealand Lawrence Hawordi, Canada Sir Godfrey Hounsfield, UK Joseph H. Greenberg, USA Otto Haxel, Germany W.W. Howells,USA Jack F. Greenblatt, Canada Elizabedi Hay, USA Sarah B. Hrdy, USA Dennis James Greenland, UK C. Vance Haynes, USA Kun Huang, China Jesse L. Greenstein, USA Robert Heap, UK David H. Hubel, USA Norman Greenwood, UK Ian B. Heath, Canada Robert Huber, Germany Kenneth I. Greisen, USA Michele Christine Heath, Canada Albert J. Hudspeth, USA Ingmar Grenthe, Sweden Paul D. Hebert, Canada N. Hugenholtz, Netherlands Hermann Grimmeiss, Sweden Dick Hedberg, Sweden John Pinnington Hughes, UK Mikhael Gromov, France Olov Hedberg, Sweden Stanley J. Hughes, Canada Fran9ois Gros, France David S. Heeschen, USA Nevin Hughes-Jones, UK David J. Gross, USA John Heilbron, USA Rolf Huisgen, Germany F. G. Grosveld, Netherlands Carl E. Heiles, USA T. H. J. Huisman, USA Peter Gruss, Germany Volker Heine, UK John R. Huizenga, USA Fangzhou Gu, China Carl-Henrik Heldin, Sweden Jan Hult, Sweden David Gubbins, UK Jan Hellner, Sweden Per Olof Hulth, Sweden John Guest, UK Ernest M. Henley, USA Donald M. Hunten, USA R. Guicherit, Netherlands Olle Hernell, Sweden Thomas C. Hutchinson, Canada Y. V. Guljaev, Russia Dudley Herschbach, USA Hugh Huxley, USA Harry Gunning, Canada Benno Hess, Germany Richard Hynes, USA Sir John Gurdon, UK Friedrich Hertweck, Germany Mark G. Inghram, USA William C. Gussow, Canada Antony Hewish, UK Hiroshi Inose, Japan D. M. Gvishiani, Russia Raymond Hide, UK Robin Francis Irvine, UK Lars Gyllensten, Sweden Peter Higgs, UK Walter Isard, USA Margherita Hack, Italy Takayoshi Higuchi, Japan Nathan Isgur, USA Mahmoud Hafez, Egypt Sir John Hill, UK Turner Timinipre Isoun, Nigeria Lowell P. Hager, USA Wolfgang Hillebrandt, Germany Werner Israel, Canada Torsten Hagerstrand, Sweden Mats Hifiert, Sweden Kurt J. Isselbacher, USA Erwin L. Hahn, USA Robert A. Hinde, UK Kenneth Jack, UK Kenneth Hale, USA Heisuke Hironaka, USA J. David Jackson, USA Robert N. Hall, USA T. Hirose, Japan Maurice Jacob, Switzerland Israel Halperin, Canada Friedrich Hirzebruch, Germany Carl-Olof Jacobsen, Sweden Leif Hambraeus, Sweden Christian Hjort, Sweden Herbert Jaeckle, Germany Mohammad Ahmad Hamdan, Charles Hoare, UK Peter Jagers, Sweden Jordan Charles F. Hockett, USA Brian James, Canada Sten Hammarstrom, Sweden W. P. M. Hoekstra, Netherlands Holger W. Jannasch, USA John Hammersley, UK Hugo F. Hoenigsberg, Columbia F. J. Billeskov Jansen, Denmark George S. Hammond, USA Roald Hoffmann, USA Asa Jansson, Sweden Adnan Hamoui, Kuwait David S. Hogness, USA Bengt-Owe Jansson, Sweden Hidesaburo Hanafusa, USA Ulf Hogstrom, Sweden H. S. Jansz, Netherlands Robert E. W. Hancock, Canada John P. Holdren, USA Daniel H. Janzen, USA James E. Hansen, USA C. P. Hollenberg, Germany Cecilia Jarlskog, Sweden W. Harder, Netherlands Bjorn Holmgren, Sweden Baron Andre Jaumotte, Belgium Gunnar Harling, Sweden Nick Holonyak, Jr., USA Emil Quinto Javier, Philippines continued Signatories to the world Scientists' Call for Action, continued

Sir Alec Jeffreys, UK Thomas Walter Bannerman Kibble, David Philip Lane, UK Christopher Jencks, USA UK Yves Laporte, France David Jenkinson, UK Elliott D.Kieff, USA Henry A. Lardy, USA Mu Shik Jhon, Korea Lars Kihlborg, Sweden Birgitta Larsson, Sweden Boju Jiang, China Sung-Hou Kim, USA Kare Larsson, Sweden Tan Jia-zhen, China David Anthony King, UK Ronald Laskey, UK Qicheng Jing, China David M. Kipnis, USA Sir Anthony Laughton, UK Gunn Johansson, Sweden Patrick V.Kirch, USA Torvard Laurent, Sweden Alf Johnels, Sweden E. W. Kittel, Netherlands N. P. Laverov, Russia Paul Jolicceur, Canada Eva Klein, Sweden Stephen M. Lawani, Nigeria Sir Ewart Jones, UK Jan Klein, Germany Peter Lawrenson, UK Reginald Jones, UK Martin J. Klein, USA Richard Laws, UK H. J. Jongsma, Netherlands Klaus von Klitzing, Germany John Lawson, UK Bror Jonzon, Sweden Sir Aaron Klug, UK John H. Lawton, UK Carole Jordan, UK Walter D. Knight, USA Michel Lazdunski, France Joshua Jortner, Israel E. F. Knipling, USA Christopher Leaver, UK Michel Jouvet, France Leon Knopoff, USA C. P. Leblond, Canada Thomas M. Jovin, Germany Roger Knowles, Canada Leon M. Lederman, USA Abdul Razzak Kaddoura, Syria Per-Goran Knutsson, Sweden David M. Lee, USA Fotis C. Kafatos, Germany Hein Koetz, Germany Sang Soo Lee, Korea Guenther Kaiser, Germany Walter Kohn, USA Yuan Tseh Lee, Taiwan Werner Kalow, Canada G. J. Komen, Netherlands P. Leentvaar, Nedierlands Raymond Kapral, Canada Masakazu Konishi, USA Louis Legendre, Canada Gabriel Karl, Canada S. A. Kooijman, Netherlands Erich L. Lehmann, USA Bo Karlberg, Sweden Hilary Koprowski, USA H. E. Lehmann, Canada Isabella Karle, USA Arthur Kornberg, USA Jean-Marie Lehn, France Jerome Karle, USA Gustavo Kouri, Cuba Bo Lehnert, Sweden Pierre Karli, France Jean Kovalevsky, France Wassily Leontief, USA Anders Karlqvist, Sweden Charles J. Krebs, Canada Luna B. Leopold, USA Erik Karlsson, Sweden Edwin G. Krebs, USA Xavier Le Pichon, France Staffan Karlsson, Sweden Georg Kreutzberg, Germany Willem J. M. Levelt, Netherlands Martin Karplus, USA Klaus Krickeberg, France Rita Levi-Montalcini, Italy Eric Hamilton Karunanayake, Sri Lars Kristoferson, Sweden Simon Levin, USA Lanka Ekkehart Kroener, Germany C. S. Levings III, USA Ephraim Katchalski-Katzir, Israel Helmut Kronmueller, Germany Leif Lewin, Sweden Morris Kates, Canada Sir Harold Kroto, UK Edward B. Lewis, USA William M. Kaula, USA Hermann Kuemmel, Germany Baron Jack Lewis, UK Cyril M. Kay, Canada Hans Kuhn, Switzerland Marion J. Lewis, Canada Frederick I. B. Kayanja, Uganda P. J. C. Kuiper, Netherlands Elliott Lieb, USA Charles D. Keeling, USA Jarmila Kukalova-Peck, Canada Sven-Eric Liedman, Sweden Gerhard Kegel, Germany Ota Kulhanek, Sweden Graham Liggins, New Zealand Joseph B. Keller, USA Sven Kullander, Sweden Olga F. Linares, USA Anthony Kelly, UK Bertil Kullenberg, Sweden Odd Lindahl, Sweden Arthur Kelman, USA Narendra Kumar, India ' Ulf Lindahl, Sweden Nicholas Kemmer, UK Ikuo Kushiro, Japan Martin Lindauer, Germany Henry W.Kendall, USA Martin Luther Kyomo, Uganda Per Olof Lindblad, Sweden Sir John C. Kendrew, UK Arthur H. Lachenbruch, USA Bjorn Lindman, Sweden Donald Kennedy, USA Branko Ladanyi, Canada Susan L. Lindquist, USA Allen Kerr, Australia John C. Laidlaw, Canada Dan L. Lindsley, USA Warwick E. Kerr, Brazil Dan Laksov, Sweden Donald B. Lindsley, USA J. Larkin Kerwin, Canada Devendra Lai, USA Gardner Lindzey, USA Nathan Keyfitz, USA Gerald Cecil Lalor, Jamaica W. N. Lipscomb, USA I. M. Khalatnikov, Russia Gerardo Lamas-Muller, Peru Christopher Llewellyn-Smith, Triloki Nath Khoshoo, India J. Lambek, Canada Switzerland Grudev Singh Khush, Philippines Peter Lancaster, Canada Michael Locke, Canada continued on reverse Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-91 OS H. Christopher Longuet-Higgins, Ernst Mayr, USA A. H. Morrish, Canada UK Peter Mazur, Netherlands Newton E. Morton, UK Erik Lonnroth, Sweden Maclyn McCarty, USA Aron A. Moscona, USA Gilbert Lonzarich, UK Robert McClelland, Canada Marcos Moshinsky, Mexico Jose Leite Lopes, Brazil Hugh O'N. McDevitt, USA Martin Moskovits, Canada L. A. Lorch, Canada Michael E. Mclntyre, UK B. Moss, UK Olli Lounasmaa, Finland Henry P. McKean, USA G. D. Mostow, USA James Lovelock, UK Fred W.McLafFerty, USA Annibale Mottana, Italy Francis E. Low, USA Anne McLaren, UK Ben Mottelson, Denmark Per Olov Lowdin, Sweden Digby McLaren, Canada Paulo A. S. Mourao, Brazil Jane Lubchenco, USA Ian McTaggart-Cowan, Canada Nicholas Mrosovsky, Canada Sir Cyril Lucas, UK Thomas Wilson Meade, UK Guo-Guang Mu, China R. Duncan Luce, USA Ernesto Medina, Venezuela Helen Muir, UK Rolf Luft, Sweden B. J. D. Meeuse, USA Isabella Muir, UK Bengt Lundberg, Sweden Jerrold Meinwald, USA Klaus Miiller, Germany Arne Lundqvist, Sweden Anders Melin, Sweden Walter H. Munk, USA Jan Lundqvist, Sweden Sylvio Ferraz Mello, Brazil R. E. Munn, Canada George Lusztig, USA Ronald Melzack, Canada Noreen Murray, UK J. Ross Macdonald, USA Louis Menand III, USA R. G. E. Murray, Canada Angus John Macintyre, UK Nathan Mendelsohn, Canada Joseph E. Murray, USA Iain Macintyre, UK M. G. K. Menon, India Richard A. Musgrave, USA Alan MacKay, UK Dietrich Menzel, Germany Viktor Mutt, Sweden G. O. Mackie, Canada N. David Mermin, USA Norman Myers, UK L. D. MacLean, Canada R. Bruce Merrifield, USA Lawrence A. Mysak, Canada John MacMillan, UK Patrick Merton, UK Frank Nabarro, South Africa Ricardo Cruz-Coke Madrid, Chile G. A. Mesiatz, Russia Khavtgain Namsrai, Mongolia Lamberto Maffei, Italy Thomas F. Meyer, Germany Saran Narang, Canada Antonio Rocha Magalhaes, Brazil Yves Meyer, France Mudumbai Seshachalu Narasimhan, Y. Abdel Mageed, Sudan Jan Michalski, Poland Italy Swadesh M. Mahajan, USA Hartmut Michel, Germany Jayant Vishnu Narlikar, India Lamberto Malatesta, Italy Robert Michell, UK Anwar Nasim, Pakistan Karl-Goran Maler, Sweden Charles D. Michener, USA Daniel Nathans, USA Bernard Malgrange, France John Midwinter, UK E. R. Ward Neale, Canada Khursheed Ahmad Malik, Germany John W. MUCS, USA James V.Neel, USA Donald C. Malins, USA Jacques Miller, Australia Louis Neel, France Edmond Malinvaud, France James A. Miller, USA Erwin Neher, Germany Nils Malmer, Sweden Neal E. Miller, USA Elisabeth F. Neufeld, USA Goran Malmqvist, Sweden Richard Miller, Canada Gernot Neugebauer, Germany Thomas F. Malone, USA Bernard Mills, Australia Bernhard Neumann, Australia K. H. Mann, Canada Ian Mark Mills, UK Peter Neumann, Germany Robert Mann, USA Brenda Milner, Canada Eldon H. Newcomb, USA Jane Mansbridge, USA Cesar Milstein, UK' Barry G Newman, Canada Eric Mansfield, UK J. C. D. Milton, Canada Ian Newton, UK Terence Mansfield, UK Frank Mitchell, Ireland Huy-Phan Nguyen, Vietnam Henry H. Mantsch, Canada Ashesh Mitra, India N. M. M. Nibbering, Netherlands Beryl E. March, Canada H. K. Moffatt, UK Kyriacos C. Nicolaou, USA Enrico Marchi, Italy Bjorn Molin, Sweden Claus Nielsen, Denmark Rudolph Marcus, USA Mario J. Molina, USA Peter Nilson, Sweden Jorge Mardones, Chile Salvador Moncada, UK Fred Nilsson, Sweden Hubert Markl, Germany Carlos Monge C., Peru Hans Nilsson, Sweden Paul A. Marks, USA Luc Montagnier, France Jan Nilsson, Sweden Sir Ronald Mason, UK Harold A. Mooney, USA Frithiof Niordson, Denmark Vincent Massey, USA Stephen Moorbath, UK Marshall W. Nirenberg, USA Leonardo Mateu, Venezuela Francis D. Moore, USA Bertil Nordenstam, Sweden Peter Matthews, UK James N. Morgan, USA Staffan Normark, USA Jan Mattsson, Sweden Sir Peter Morris, UK Erling Norrby, Sweden Soren Mattsson, Sweden Simon Conway Morris, UK Philippe Nozieres, France continued Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action, continued

Paul Nurse, UK Robert G. Parr, USA Atta Ur Rahman, Pakistan H. Moyses Nussenzveig, Brazil William Parry, UK Mohammad Ataur Rahman, Pakistan Christiane Nusslein-Volhard, Roger Parsons, UK Palayanoor Sivaswamy Germany T. R. Parsons, Canada Ramakrishnan, India P. S. Nutman, UK Yogesh Patel, Canada Vulimiri Ramalingaswami, India John Nye, UK Ernesto Paterniani, Brazil Claes Ramel, Sweden Peter Nye, UK Harry Paul, Germany Donald Ramsay, Canada Ann Oaks, Canada William Peacock, Australia Norman F. Ramsey, USA Ake Oberg, Sweden D. W. Pearce, UK Bengt Rlnby, Sweden Graham Odgers, Canada Barbara Pearse, UK Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao, Thomas Odhiambo, Kenya Ralph G. Pearson, USA USA Eugene P. Odum, USA Sir William Peart, UK Chintamani Rao, India Hans Oeschger, Switzerland Jean-Claude Pecker, France Udipi Ramachandra Rao, India Dieter Oesterhelt, Germany Timothy John Pedley, UK Eduardo H. Rapoport, Argentina Cyril Offord, UK Abed Peeraly, Mauritius Marianne Rasmuson, Sweden Laban Ayieko Ogallo, Kenya Manuel Peimbert, Mexico John Raven, UK Susumu Ohno, USA W. Richard Peltier, Canada Peter H. Raven, USA Takeshi Oka, USA Roger Penrose, UK P. A. Redhead, Canada Gideon Okelo, Kenya Sir H. Charles Pereira, UK Sir Martin J. Rees, UK Bede Nwoye Okigbo, Nigeria Ruy Perez-Tamayo, Mexico Colin Reese, UK Douglas L. Oliver, USA David D. Perkins, USA Manfred Reetz, Germany T. K. Ollennu, Ghana Arthur Perlin, Canada Gerhard Regnell, Sweden Ivar Olovsson, Sweden Baron Walter Laing Macdonald Perry, Howard Reiss, USA Erik Olsson, Sweden UK R. S. Reneman, Netherlands Ragnar Olsson, Sweden Erik Persson, Sweden Peter M. Rentzepis, USA Ulf Olsson, Sweden Max E Perutz, UK Harald Reuter, Switzerland Ayub Khan Ommaya, USA Richard E. Peter, Canada Pierre Richard, Canada Cyril Agodi Onwumechili, UK R. L. Peterson, Canada Frederic M. Richards, USA Gunnar Oquist, Sweden William Petrie, Canada Burton Richter, USA Gordon Orians, USA Ralf E Pettersson, Sweden Nicholas Ridley, UK Sten Orrenius, Sweden David Godfrey Pettifor, UK Lorrin A. Riggs, USA Douglas D. Osheroff, USA Richard Pharis, Canada Sir Ralph Riley, UK Yuri S. Osipov, Russia W. H. Pickering, USA Jarl Risberg, Sweden Charles Osmond, Australia Jeremy David Pickett-Heaps, John D. Roberts, USA Ernst Otten, Germany Australia Morton S. Roberts, USA Orjan Ouchterlony, Sweden Leif Pihl, Sweden Richard J. Roberts, USA Peter Overadi, Germany Trevor Platt, Canada G. Th. Robillard, Netherlands Larry E. Overman, USA John C. Polanyi, Canada J. M. Robson, Canada John Owens, Canada Leopold J. Pospisil, USA Michael Rochester, Canada Victor Adenuga Oyenuga, Nigeria John Postgate, UK Martin Rodbell, USA Kenneth Packer, UK Pierre Potier, France Henning Rodhe, Sweden Bernard Ephraim Pagel, Denmark Van R. Potter, USA Edwin Woods Roedder, USA Dharam Pal Ghai, Switzerland Elton Pounder, Canada Pradeep Kumar Rohatgi, USA George E. Palade, USA • Sir Ghillean Prance, UK Heinrich Rohrer, Switzerland Alejandro C. Paladini, Argentina M. A. Preston, Canada Ivan Roitt, UK Jacob Palis, Jr., Brazil Raymond A. Price, Canada Carlos E. Rolz, USA Andrew Clennel Palmer, UK Ilya Prigogine, Belgium Bjorn Roos, Sweden Anita Dolly Panek, Brazil H. H. T. Prins, Netherlands P. J. Roos, Netherlands Morton B. Panish, USA R. Prins, Switzerland Betty I. Roots, Canada Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky, USA C. Ladd Prosser, USA Bernard Roques, France Leo A. Paquette, USA Theodore Puck, USA Rutger Rosenberg, Sweden Arthur B. Pardee, USA Federico Leighton Puga, Chile M. N. Rosenbluth, USA Mary Lou Pardue, USA WillardV. Quine, USA Thomas Rosswall, Sweden Giorgio Parisi, Italy Benton Rabinovitch, USA Joseph Rotblat, UK Geoffrey Parker, UK Martin Raff, UK Klaus Roth, UK continued on reverse union of Concerned Scientists, TWO Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-9105 Miriam Rothschild, UK Dana Scott, USA W. Spakman, Netherlands David Rowe, Canada William B. Scott, Canada Walter Spear, UK F. Sherwood Rowland, USA Geoffrey Scudder, Canada John Spencer, Canada Gerald M. Rubin, USA Glenn T. Seaborg, USA George Sperling, USA Harry Rubin, USA Ronald R. Sederoff, USA Hyron Spinrad, USA Vera C. Rubin, USA Eugen Seibold, Germany James M. Sprague, USA Malvin Ruderman, USA George E. Seidel, Jr., USA David B. Sprinson, USA Paula Ruderman, USA Franz Seitelberger, Austria D. W. L. Sprung, Canada Pablo Rudomin, Mexico Arne Semb-Johansson, Norway Franklin W. Stahl, USA D. J. Ruiter, Netherlands Giovanni Semerano, Italy Steven M. Stanley, USA R. F. Rummel, Germany Andrew M. Sessler, USA Anne Marie Staub, France Ian Russell, UK Robert Shackleton, UK John Steeds, UK Liane Brauch Russell, USA Igor Shafarevich, Russia T. A. Steeves, Canada Nathaniel Rutter, Canada Irwin I. Shapiro, USA Charles M. Stein, USA Igor Saavedra, Chile Arun Kumar Sharma, India Jack Steinberger, Switzerland Leo Sachs, Israel Aaron J. Shatkin, USA Donald F. Steiner, USA Jorge Sahade, Argentina Yuen R. Shen, USA Jan Olof Stenflo, Switzerland Farrokh Saidi, Iran Gordon Shepherd, Canada Lennart Stenflo, Sweden Gustavo Hoecker Salas, Chile Norman Sheppard, UK Soren Stenlund, Sweden Edwin E. Salpeter, USA Changxu Shi, China Gunther Sterba, Germany George Salt, UK David Shoenberg, UK A. T. Stewart, Canada Robert Salter, Canada Roger V. Short, Australia Robert Stewart, Canada Francisco Mauro Salzano, Brazil Frank Hsia-San Shu, USA Walter H. Stockmayer, USA Bengt Samuelsson, Sweden Kai M. Siegbahn, Sweden Walther Stoeckenius, USA Anthony San Pietro, USA Philip Siekevitz, USA B. P. Stoicheff, Canada Jeremy Keith Morris Sanders, UK Juan Silva, Venezuela Andres O. M. Stoppani* Argentina Frederick Sanger, UK Herbert Simon, USA Andrew Streitwieser, USA Bishnu Sanwal, Canada J. Simons, Netherlands David Ian Stuart, UK Alan Sargeson, Australia Kai Lennart Simons, Germany John Stuart, UK William Sarjeant, Canada John Simpson, Canada Paul K. Stumpf, USA Jose Sarukhan, Mexico S. J. Singer, USA Maximo Jesus Garcia Sucre, Joachim Sauer, Germany Robert Louis Sinsheimer, USA Venezuela Elisabeth Sauer-Eriksson, Sweden Peter Sjogren, Sweden John Sulston, UK Donald Sawyer, Brazil Hugo Sjors, Sweden Per Simdberg, Sweden Gian Tommaso Scarascia Mugnozza, Johannes Sjostrand, France M. Azim Surani, UK Italy Jens C. Skou, Denmark Grant Robert Sutherland, Australia Howard K. Schachman, USA Edward Charles Slater, UK Ib Svane, Sweden Harry Schachter, Canada David Slepian, USA Jisnuson Svasti, Thailand Evry Schatzman, France Piotr Slonimski, France Eric Svensson, Canada Arthur L. Schawlow, USA John Slykhuis, Canada M. S. Swaminathan, India Randy W. Schekman, USA Richard E. Smalley, USA Govind Swarup, India Jozef S. Schell, Germany Albert C. Smith, USA Hewson Swift, USA John A. Schellman, USA G. D. W. Smith, UK Harry L. Swinney, USA Peter Schiller, Canada Ian William Murison Smith, UK David Tabor, UK David Schindler, Canada James Cuthbert Smith, UK Paul Talalay, USA Barbara Schipperges, Sweden Michael Smith, Canada Alberto C. Taquini, Argentina Martin Schlepper, Germany Ian N. Sneddon, UK John T.Tate, USA Hermann Schmalzried, Germany Robert Snider, Canada Henry Taube, USA Knut Schmidt-Nielsen, USA Victor Snieckus, Canada Clifford H. Taubes, USA Norbert Schmitz, Germany Yousef Sobouti, Iran Jean E. Taylor William Schneider, Canada lonel Solomon, France John C. Taylor, UK L. M. Schoonhoven, Netherlands Samuel Solomon, Canada Martin John Taylor, UK Manfred R. Schroeder, Germany George Somero, USA Richard E. Taylor, USA Hermann P. Schwan, USA Christopher Somerville, USA Richard Lawrence Taylor, USA Henry P. Schwarcz, Canada Sverker Sorlin, Sweden Kirthi Tennakone, Sri Lanka John Henry Schwarz, USA T. L. Sourkes, Canada Jaan Terasmae, Canada Alastair Scott, USA Edwin Southern, UK Patrick Thaddeus, USA continued Signatories to the World Scientists' Call for Action, continued

Rudolf K. Thauer, Germany Clibas Vieira, Brazil John R. Whinnery, USA Walter Thirring, Austria Ashok K. Vijh, Canada Fred Whipple, USA E. Donnall Thomas, USA J. Vijverberg, Nedierlands Robert Stephen White, UK Roger Thomas, USA Gloria M. Villegas, USA George Whitehead, USA Stephen Thorpe, UK Raimundo Villegas, Venezuela Kennedi Whitham, Canada R. Thorsteinsson, Canada H. J. Vmk, Netherlands Gordon E Whitmore, Canada Brian Thrush, UK Miguel Angel Virasoro, Italy Peter Whittle, UK Sergei L. Tikhvinsky, Russia G. D. Vogels, Nedierlands Anne V. T. Whyte, Canada Maury Tigner, USA E. W. Vogt, Canada Richard Wielebinski, Germany Shirley M. Tilghman, USA Roland von Bothmer, Sweden Rudolf Wienecke, Germany J. E. Till, Canada Peter H. von Hippel, USA Torsten N. Wiesel, USA Samuel C. C. Ting, USA Sebastian Von Hoerner, Germany Helmut Wiesenthal, Germany Peter Tiselius, Sweden Georg Henrik von Wright, Finland Arthur S. Wightman, USA Clesensio Tizikara, Uganda Nikolay Vorontsov, Russia Hans Wigzell, Sweden James Tobin, USA Tuyen Hoang Vu, Vietnam Anders Wijkman, USA Jan Peter Toennies, Germany Heinrich Waenke, Germany Marten Wikstrom, Finland Jun-ichi Tomizawa, Japan Ulla Wagner, Sweden Hans Wilhelmsson, Sweden Susumu Tonegawa, USA SalihJ.Wakil,USA William Wilkinson, UK Saydil M. Toure, Burkina Faso David Walker, UK Richard Willems, Estonia Moctar Toure, USA Donald Walker, Australia Gordon R. Willey, USA Charles H. Townes, USA Gordon Walker, Canada Dudley Williams, UK Sam Treiman, USA John Ernest Walker, UK George C. Williams, USA Marianne Treschow, Sweden Charles Wall, UK Harold Williams, Canada Tryggve Troedsson, Sweden Patrick Wall, UK Robert Williams, UK Joachim E. Truemper, Germany Bruce Wallace, USA Robin M. Williams, Jr., USA Rudolf Truempy, Switzerland David Wallace, UK Edward Nevill Wdlmer, UK Edemariam Tsega, Canada Henrik Wallgren, Finland Edward O. Wilson, USA Cheng Kui Tseng, China Torkel Wallmark, Sweden Robert W.Wilson, USA Chen-Lu Tsou, China Anthony Edward Walsby, UK Colin George Windsor, UK Daniel Chee Tsui, USA Herbert Waldier, Germany Gregory Winter, UK VerenaTunnicliffe, Canada Erkang Wang, China K. W. A. Wirtz, Netherlands Hans Tuppy, Austria Prawase Wasi, Thailand Evelyn M. Witkin, USA Grenville Turner, UK Douglas Waterhouse, Australia Bernhard Witkop, USA W.T.Tutte,UK JohnWaterlow, UK H. Wolda, USA Desmond Tutu, South Africa George D. Watkins, USA Lincoln Wolfenstein, USA David Tyrrell, UK Sir David Weatherall, UK A. D. Wolff-Albers, Nedierlands Stafran Ulfstrand, Sweden Colin Webb, UK Lodewijk Woltjer, France Axel Ullrich, Germany Klaus Weber, Germany Sir Alan Muir Wood, UK Ruben Vallejos, Argentina Basil Weedon, UK E. H. Wood, USA K. van Dam, Netherlands Hans A. Weidenmueller, Germany William B. Wood, USA S. C. van de Geijn, Netherlands Alvin M. Weinberg, USA Sir Michael Woodruff, UK R. S. W van de Wai, Netherlands Felix Weinberg, UK George M. Woodwell, USA Simon van der Meer, Switzerland Sidney Weinhouse, USA Michael Woolfson, UK D. van der Mei, Netherlands Nigel Oscai-Weiss, UK H. E. Wright, USA E C. van der Vliet, Nedierlands Victor Weisskopf, USA Jieping Wu, China R van der Voo, USA Thomas Weller, USA Gerard R. Wyatt, Canada Sir John Vane, UK M. J. A. Werger, Netherlands Arne Wyller, USA Kensal E. VanHolde, USA Julius Wess, Germany Xide Xie, China J. M. J. van Leewen, Netherlands Richard West, UK Keidi R. Yamamoto, USA Tore Vanngard, Sweden Mary J. West-Eberhard, Costa Rica Dongsheng Yan, China L. van Straaten, Netherlands Bengt Westerlund, Sweden Charles Yanofsky, USA W. van Vierssen, Netherlands L. J. Westermann-van der Steen, Weizuo Ye, China Jose Israel Vargas, Brazil Netherlands Lu Yu, Italy Sidney F. Velick, USA J. O. Wheeler, Canada Yongyuth Yuthavong, Thailand Bengt Vessby, Sweden Michael Whelan, UK Don Bernard Zagier, Germany continued on reverse Union of Concerned Scientists, Two Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA O2238-9105 Zafar H. Zaidi, Pakistan T. I. Zaslavskaja, Russia Sir Christopher Zeeman, UK E-An Zen, USA Lars Zetterberg, Sweden Guang-Zhao Zhou, China Zhenda Zhu, China W. G. Zijlstra, Netherlands John Ziman, UK Rolf Martin Zinkernagel, Switzerland Mary Lou Zoback, USA Martin Zuckermann, Canada Tomas Zylicz, Poland ; : ,r.,V;v;,-; ••(";. '-•.;\; ^^••'yf''•,'".«i 'K-^^^^/^rjEWELoPM.E Copyright © 1997 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 1997

This report has been prepared by the staff of the World Bank. The judgments expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or of the governments they represent.

Cover photograph by Luis Fernando Pino. A technician at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) uses molecular markers to examine genetic variability in varieties of Latin American rice. Reprinted with permission from CIAT, Cali, Colombia.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Bioengineering of crops : report of the World Bank Panel on Transgenic Crops / Henry W. Kendall... [et al.]. p. cm. — (Environmentally and socially sustainable development studies and monographs series ; 23) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-4073-5 1. Transgenic plants. 2. Plant genetic engineering. 3. Crops— Genetic engineering. I. Kendall, Henry Way, 1926- . II. World Bank Panel on Transgenic Crops. HI. Series. SB123.57.B56 1997 338.1'62—dc21 97-40525 CIP

The text and the cover are printed on recycled paper, with a flood aqueous coating on the cover.

Copyright © 1996 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America

First printing September 1996

This report has been prepared by the staff of the World Bank. The judgments expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or the governments they represent.

Cover photo by Curt Carnemark. The interior of a mosque in Bukhara, Uzbekistan.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publicadon Data

Meeting the challenges of population, environment, and resources : the costs of inaction / Henry W. Kendall,... [et al.]. p. cm. — (Environmentally sustainable development proceedings series ; no. 14) "A report of the senior scientists' panels, associated events of the third annual World Bank Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development co-sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the World Bank, Washington, D.C., October 4 and 9, 1995." ISBN 0-8213-3635-5 1. Sustainable development—Congresses. 2. Population— Environmental aspects—Congresses. I. Kendall, Henry Way, 1926- . II. Union of Concerned Scientists. III. International Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development (3rd : 1995 : World Bank) IV. Series. HC79.E5M428 1996 333.7—dc20 96-9106 CIP

Printed on recycled paper. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AN EAST ROOM ROUNDTABLE

The White House July 24, 1997 Proceedings

INTRODUCTION BY THE VICE PRESIDENT: fulfill our responsibilities to future generations unless we deal responsibly with the challenge of climate change. On behalf of the President and die First Lady, it is my pleasure and honor to welcome all of you to the White House. The overwhelming balance of evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but a fact, that Today we hear about the concerns of scientists. This global warming is for real. The world's scientists believe Administration has always worked on the simple principle that science must inform policy decisions. Scientists are by nature a cautious group, but the world's scientific commu- cBill Clinton. the time they will do the right thing. So what we are doing today is beginning a process in which we ask the THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. The whole American people to listen to the evidence, to measure it issue of climate change must be looked at in terms of our against their own experience, but not to discount the deepest obligations to future generations. I have spent weight of scientific authority if their own experience does most of my time in the last 4J/2 years trying to prepare die not yet confirm what the overwhelming percentage of American people for a new century and a new millen- scientists believes to be fact today. nium. We must also protect the Earth for that new millen- I do want to say that I am convinced that, when the nium, to ensure that the American people will benefit nations of the world meet in Kyoto, Japan, in December from the opportunities we are trying to create. We cannot on this issue, die United States has got to be committed to

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 1 realistic and binding limits on our emissions of greenhouse times as much chlorofluorocarbons as it did 25 years ago. gases. Between now and then we have to work with the The amount of ozone in the stratosphere over the United American people to get them to share that commitment. States is 6 to 10 percent lower than it was in the 1960s. We have to emphasize flexible, market-based approaches. We have to embrace research and development efforts in '-Mr. President and Mr. Vice President) global technology that will help us to improve the environment while permitting our economy to grow. We have to ask all . climatic change is underway." nations, both industrial and developing, to participate in — F. Sherwoo4 Rowland this process. If we do this togedier, we can defuse this threat, and we can make the 21st century what it ought to Many other changes are occurring as well. The global be, not only for our children, but for all the children of average surface temperature has risen about 1 °F during the world. the past century, and sea level has risen from 4 to 10 I believe the science demands that we face this challenge inches. now. I'm positive that we owe it to our children. And I Land use patterns have been greatly altered as forests are hope that we can find the wisdom and the skill to do burned for use as agricultural land. Many of the species democracy's work in the next few months to build the formerly in these forests are disappearing. The geograph- consensus necessary to actually make action, as opposed to ical ranges of tropical diseases are moving northward. rhetoric, possible. To all of you, for your commitment to Human activities are the chief cause of many of'these that, I thank you. changes. The last century saw tremendous growth in the And now I'd like to ask Dr. Rowland to be the first of our global population, from about 1 !/2 billion in 1900 to 6 distinguished scientists to lead off. billion in the year 2,000 and 8 billion in the year 2025. Much of the world is now moving as fast as possible into a DR. ROWLAND: Mr. President and Mr. Vice President, more affluent, energy-intensive era. global climatic change is underway. Carbon dioxide from The combination of a rapidly growing world population the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas has risen 15 with an increase in per capita use of energy carries with it percent in the atmosphere since 1958. Methane, some of great pressures on the environment and the atmosphere. which is emitted from cattle and rice paddies, has Because the wind circles the earth within a few weeks, increased 16 percent since 1978. The air now holds four greenhouse gases emitted from each country quickly

Expert climate scientists from more than 50 countries agree that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland, Nobel Prize recipient, noted that global temperature records indicate an overall warming of about 1 °F over the last century.

2 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 Due to human activities — primarily the burning of fossil fuels — atmospheric concentrations of several greenhouse gases have substantially increased since the

beginnino go oJf the Industrial Revolution. Dr. Mario Molina, Nobel Prize winner, noted that current projections indicate atmospheric concentrations will exceed 700 parts per million by 2100. This would be the highest level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 50 million years.

"More than 2600 scientists have now signed a, ., t T THE VICE PRESIDENT: Now I'd like to ask Dr. Mario statement on global climatic disruption in which, Molina to give us an overview of the science of climate as scientists and as concerned citizens, we ask that ' . > "• *>- , , •- •, " - ' change. the United States demonstrate strong leadership in, -, " the global effort: with a firm proposal for reducing DR. MOLINA: I'd be pleased to do that, Mr. Vice *JU,S, emissions of gpeejnhouse. gases, " • * President. The "greenhouse effect" is a process that affects *-~s - *' •—jp. Sherwood Rowland 3 % " V *r* """ -i the heat patterns of our planet. The earth receives energy from the sun, which passes relatively freely through the become a global problem requiring a global solution. atmosphere. But the energy that the earth emits back to During the 1990s, the world called upon its scientists to outer space is actually trapped by certain gases in the evaluate the question of global warming from the accumu- earths atmosphere, which affects the earths heat patterns. lation of greenhouse gases. The authoritative IPCC has One of these gases is carbon dioxide, which is the most estimated a probable increase in global surface air tempera- important greenhouse gas. And what we have in the figure ture of about 3V2 °F by the year 2100, with a possible is a representation of the amount of carbon dioxide in the range from 2 to 61/2 °F. They further stated that the atmosphere going back in time 160,000 years. The levels balance of the evidence suggests a discernible human influ- of carbon dioxide range between about 190 and 280 parts ence on global climate, and warned that the average rate of per million. We know this from measuring die composi- warming will probably be greater than any experienced in tion of air bubbles trapped in ice cores from Antarctica the past 10,000 years. The variation in estimated out- and Greenland. The lower curve in die figure is a similar comes depends upon what the countries of the world do record of temperature going from the present back to control the emissions of carbon dioxide and other 160,000 years. There is a remarkably large correlation greenhouse gases in the intervening years. More than 2600 between these two curves. You can see that the preindus-

scientists have now signed a statement on global climatic trial amounts of CO2 are below 300 parts per million. The

disruption in which, as scientists and as concerned citi- current concentration of CO2 is roughly 365 parts per zens, we ask that the United States demonstrate strong million. What is striking is that this is a level that we leadership in the global effort with a firm proposal for haven't seen before, certainly not in the past 160,000 reducing U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. years, and we got there very fast.

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 3 The next question is where are we heading? What THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Now, I'd like happens in the future depends on what we do. If we to call on Dr. Jane Lubchenco, our expert on ecology, and continue with the so-called "business-as-usual" scenario, see what such significant changes in greenhouse gas levels might mean for natural resources. "If we continue with the so-catted 'business-as- usual* scenario, we can predict that we are going DR. LUBCHENCO: Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, ' to reach levels of about 700 parts per million, I • as both of you are aware, the ecological systems of the world — the forests, wetlands, coral reefs — provide the ' ^Arid what is remarkable is Kowfast this would life support systems for all of life on earth. Important 1 occur,— in only the Mink of an eye on the ecosystem functions, including flood control, purification geological'or-evolutionary time scale," ' ' , ^ , of air and water, and the creation of beautiful places for ' - ! - « • -— Mario Molina recreation and inspiration can only be provided by intact ecological systems, and when those systems are disrupted or lost, then we lose the goods and services they provide. we can predict that we are going to reach levels of about To provide a few vignettes of the ecological consequences 700 parts per million. And what is remarkable is how fast of climate change, in the optimistic scenario of a doubled this would occur — in only the blink of an eye on the CO2 world, let me invite you on a brief field trip to geological or evolutionary time scale. I should point out different parts of our country: that the earth has actually seen such high levels of carbon dioxide in the past, but that was some 50 million years • Let's begin in the forests of New England, which like ago when the earth was a very different place from what it probably a third of the forests around the globe, will is now. undergo major changes. For example, we would prob- ably lose sugar maples from the New England forests. This is the sort of evidence that makes the scientific commu- nity consider this to be a serious problem. The magnitude • Let's move to the southern part of our country. Salt and the pace of change are what make us really worry. marshes in Louisiana are already being submerged. Climatic change would exacerbate this problem as sea

Natural ecosystems will shift as individual species respond to changes in climate. Rates of temperature change over the next century are expected to be faster than have been observed over the last 10,000 years. Dr. Jane Lubchenco predicted this will had to loss of biological diversity and the services ecosystems provide for society, estimated to be worth trillions of dollars annually.

4 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 Human health and food security may be adversely affected by climate change. In combination with increasing populations and limited land and water resources, climate change is likely to lead to increased pressures on food supplies and disease surveillance systems.

level rises between six inches and three feet. The loss of salt marshes would result in the loss of nursery " The slower the Kate'of change in climatcf the less • J areas, which are the natural hatcheries for important catastrophic the results. ''Species are more likely to / fish and shellfish. We would also lose the systems be able to migrate, to"grow, and evolve * " ^-* ' ability to detoxify pollutants, trap sediments, create a rate of change< is slqw." ^ t [l ^ ~ ,x- \" 1 habitat for unique plants and animals, and protect the — Tane^ Lubchenco shores against the battering of waves. ** . ^ - V ' ,

• Now let's move to the Midwest. Drought is no stranger to this region. The heat wave in 1988 Climate change is only one of many environmental resulted in a one—third drop in U.S. agricultural changes occurring around the world today. There are production. While these highly managed agricultural multiple stresses, including familiar things like urbaniza- systems are thought to be quite adaptable, climate tion, over-fishing, pollution, and the loss of biological change is likely to increase demands on available diversity. Taken together, these stresses are reducing the water to ameliorate soil drying, and on pesticide use ecosystems that we depend upon for our quality of life. As to combat increased incidences of pests and diseases. a scientist, I know enough to appreciate how serious and • Flying up to Glacier National Park in Montana, we urgent the problem of climate change is. As a mother, I would be dismayed to find out that fully 73 percent care especially about the prospects of the world that my of the glacial areas have already been lost since 1850 children will inherit. I do not wish them to have a world because of climate warming. In fact, climate change is that is disrupted and depauperate. The quality of their predicted to result in loss of all of the glaciers in the future depends upon our willingness to act and to act park by the year 2030, well within many of our chil- quickly. dren's lifetimes.

As an ecologist, I must emphasize that the slower the rate THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Let me call now on of change in climate, the less catastrophic the results. Dr. Steve Schneider to discuss the risks of severe or extreme Species are more likely to be able to migrate, to grow, and weather events — droughts, floods, and hurricanes — evolve if the rate of change is slow. which have been predicted to accompany global warming.

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 5 DR. SCHNEIDER: Thank you very much, Mr. Vice The question is, what's happening? A line that we often President, Mr. President. What we're addressing at the use in science is, well, in God we trust, but for the rest of moment is, "so what if the climate changes?" This is a us, please show data. Dr. Tom Karl and his colleagues in question that scientists have spent a long time on, doing North Carolina, for example, have concluded that there literally hundreds of studies, suggesting outcomes ranging has been about a 10 percent increase in precipitation from catastrophic to mild. Let's take a look at just two across the United States since 1910. The interesting part, examples — the sea level question and the question of hydrologic extremes, droughts and floods. We all remember the terrible pictures from hurricane Andrew, " So, while no one event certainly could be laid to which resulted in losses on the order of $40 billion in Florida and other areas around the Caribbean. Could we frequency, and magnitude of severe storms could have had something to do with that? If you increase the temperature of the oceans, it increases evaporation, it very well be the first signs of the canary in the might make storms stronger. That's very controversial. But cage • ftartingVoi quiver," ; ••• •-..'•• one thing we know that isn't controversial is that before .'.';'. •"••/. '• ' .'•;''""-":;^''v '.."""• > -^ Stephen Schneider 1987 there were no losses larger than $1 billion. And now the insurance industries are very concerned that there have been several in the tens of billions. as Tom says, is, "The increase in precipitation is reflected primarily in the heavy and extreme daily events." What else do we know that's not controversial? Sea levels Translated: Gully washers. The bulk of the rainfall have gone up and are projected, typically, to go up six increase has been in those kinds of damaging, extreme inches to maybe three feet, depending upon how things events. A pattern is emerging, and the pattern is consistent turn out in the next century. And whether storms are with the expectations from our models. So, while no one augmented in strength by global warming or remain at event certainly could be laid to the doorstep of global their natural levels, they'll be causing flooding from a warming, the increasing frequency and magnitude of higher sea-level base. As a result of that, the damages severe storms could very well be the first signs of the would go further inland. canary in the cage starting to quiver. What about the hydrologic extremes? Well, we all saw The IPCC concluded with a paragraph I know well as a pictures of the 1988 drought. We know about the seemingly lead IPCC author, and I'll quote what it said in its last endless stories of floods now. And the question is, "Has paragraph of the summary for policy makers. "When nature rolled us a double snake eyes, or have we started to rapidly forced, nonlinear systems are especially subject to load the dice?" Again, physics says if you increase the heating unexpected behavior." In my words, that means reducing of something that has water in it, more water will evaporate. the pressures humans put on nature is insurance against So, what that suggests is that more water in the air means potential nasty surprises. that when it does rain, the rainfall can be more intense. When it's dry, you can have more evaporation. THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Now, I'd like to ask Dr. Robert Shope, who studies infectious diseases " What about the hydrologic extremes? Well, we' extensively, to discuss how human health might be affected by climate change. all saw pictures of the 1988 dvought.^We know • aboutthe seemingly endless stories of floods now.-, DR. SHOPE: Thank you, Mr. President. Health and the 1 And the question is, 'Has nature rotted us double environment are closely linked. If there is a 6 °F warming, the snake eyes, or have we started to load the dice?'" heat alone in North American cities, such as Washington, — Stephen Schneider D.C., will result in an excess of deaths, especially in elderly people who do not adapt well to severe warmth. We had an

6 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 Mankind has dramatically altered the composition of the atmosphere in the last 150 years. The concentration of carbon dioxide is 30 percent higher than it was in 1860 and is now higher than it has been in 160,000years.

example in July of 1995 in Chicago, Illinois. There the with warming we can expect these outbreaks to continue temperature exceeded 90 °F night and day for a prolonged and to enlarge. period, and there were 465 deaths recorded in Chicago related to the heat. "Malaria, is a disease that, world-wide, kills My own personal experience is with diseases transmitted by ticks, mosquitoes, and other biting insects. Let me talk approximately 2-million people each year. It's a about dengue virus. This causes a disease in people which tropical disease, but recently has occurred in small typically gives them high fever, headache, muscle aches ' outbreaks'in the United States, in New Jersey, and pains, and sometimes a rash. There is a more severe New York, and Texas, and with warming we can form of dengue, dengue-hemorrhagic fever, in which the expect these outbreaks to continue and to enlarge," case mortality rate is about 10 percent. This virus is trans- . _ , . — Robert Shope mitted by a mosquito that lives in and around homes in warm climates. The mosquito is killed by a hard freeze; therefore, its northern limit is about Memphis, Tennessee, The factors that I've talked about argue for controlling the at the present time. In the last decade, we've seen a steady environment while we still have time, and I will say that increase in the numbers of cases of dengue in tropical the best insurance is preparedness. There are many other America, including Mexico. This disease is now literally on diseases directly affected by rainfall and warming — St. our southern border. I cannot tell you whether dengue Louis encephalitis, the tick-borne Lyme disease, and the epidemics will occur in the United States, but with climate newly recognized rodent-associated Hantavirus pulmonary change and warming, the mosquito will thrive further syndrome, which broke out in 1993 in the southwestern north. part of the United States. Each nation in the world has its These same factors apply to the vector of malaria, also a own set of diseases, some of which affect Americans mosquito. Malaria is a disease that, worldwide, kills abroad or can be transported and introduced into die approximately 2 million people each year. It's a tropical United States. Therefore, the problem of climate change disease, but recently has occurred in small outbreaks in the and health is of common interest among nations as are the United States, in New Jersey, New York, and Texas, and solutions. Thank you.

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 7 The vast majority of the world's leading climate experts are concerned that human-induced climate change could have profound consequences for the economy, human health, and quality of life in future generations. Flanked by the Vice President and the President, the eminent U.S. scientists who contributed to the White House roundtable discussion of climate change are (left to right) Robert Shape, Henry Kendall, Jane Lubchenco, F. Sherwood Rowland, John Holdren, Stephen Schneider, and Mario Molina.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: All right. I'd like to ask Dr. for irrigation, is already short. The human race uses nearly Henry Kendall, Nobel laureate and chairman of the Union one half of the available fresh water, and 40 percent of the of Concerned Scientists to speak to the international world's population lives in areas that are water short. dimensions of the issue. case that one end of the boat can DR. KENDALL: Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, ' sink, so let me say that this is a developing tliank you for this opportunity. Disruption of the climate prob}em in national security, and we have to deal is linked to, and can aggravate, many other human prob- with it." ". ^ , , lems. One link I'd like to talk about is the connection with world food production. Agriculture, as is widely recog- — Henry Kendall nized, needs a stable climate in order to be highly produc- tive. But in 1988, in the central North American conti- nent, with combined high temperatures and drought, both Expansion into new arable land is highly constrained, and Canada and the United States lost one-third of their grain the last thing we need are climatic changes and disruptions supplies. For the first time in 200 years, food production putting additional pressures on a system that is already was not adequate to feed us. In the years since, Australia becoming considerably stressed. Of course, it's the bottom and Mexico have had somewhat similar events. tier of the developing nations that will get hit directly by shortages. This has already started to generate increasing Food demand is expected to double in the next 30 years, numbers of hungry migrants, environmental refugees, which is almost no time at all. Fresh water, which is vital streaming across national borders. The result is that no nation will be sheltered from the effects of dislocations in will be sheltered from thp effects ofr • food supplies, altered trade balances, and fresh water diffi- culties. The flow of migrants may increase into the J - dislocations in-foodtsupplies, altered trade \ *_* -* •-' hundreds of millions of people. And even though the ^balances,' and fresh water difficulties" >- & ^ *.* ^/""V'1 , ff. wealthy nations will remain able to feed themselves, and ,-s.- \' •..„_-, — Henry Kendall- remain well fed into the future, no nation will escape trou- bles from pressures on the food supply. Mr. President, it is

8 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 not the case that one end of the boat can sink, so let me DR. HOLDREN: I think, Mr. President, Mr. Vice say that this is a developing problem in national security, President, there are at least six reasons why most people and we have to deal with it. The best way to deal with underrate the seriousness of the climate disruption problem. problems of this sort is to stop them at the outset and not I think the first reason that people tend to underrate this wait until the results are presented to us and the great problem is that human well-being is a lot more dependent troubles have developed. Thank you. on climate than most people think. As you heard today, we're talking about the productivity of farms and forests and THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. I'd like to now turn to fisheries. We're talking about the frequency and intensity of Dr. John Holdren, who's worked on many global issues. floods and droughts and heat waves. We're talking about the Why do you think people are underrating the importance geographic pattern of disease. We're talking about sea level of the climate change issue, and what do you think we can rise and associated destruction of coastal property. And we're do about it? talking about the potential for political tension and conflict over the consequences and over who's responsible and who should pay. The second reason people tend to underrate this problem is that climate disruption is a lot further along than most people think. As we've seen, atmospheric carbon dioxide is already higher than it's been in the last 160,000 years. The global surface temperature, which is expected to lag behind increasing carbon dioxide concentration, is higher than it's been in the last thousand years. The third reason that many people are more complacent than they should be is that the climate implications of future growth in population and future growth in energy consumption are a lot bigger than most people think. We're going to have in the year 2050, barring near disaster, something like 9 billion people compared to less than 6 billion today. We're going to have energy use under "busi- ness as usual" that will be three times higher than today's

and CO2 emissions that are 2 to 2V£ times today's world- wide. The fourth point is that scientific uncertainties are not grounds for complacency, in spite of what many people may think. There are uncertainties about many of the Climate change is a global issue requiring a global response. details of timing and magnitude and regional variation in President Clinton has stated that "we have to ask all nations, both the consequences of climate change, but there is no uncer- industrial and developing, to participate in this process. We have to tainty at all that humans have significantly altered the emphasize flexible, market-based approaches. We have to embrace global atmospheric concentrations of gases we know to be research and development efforts in technology that will help us to critical in controlling climate. And there's a solid improve the environment while permitting our economy to grow. If consensus among the scientists who have studied these we do this together, we can diffuse this threat, and we can make the matters seriously that the chances of significant impacts on twenty-first century what it ought to be, not only for our children, human well being from climate change over the next few but for all the children of the world." decades are substantial.

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 9 The fifth reason that people underrate the problem is that the time lags between cause and effect and between effect "We all live on the shores of one global ocean. Our and remedy are longer than most people think. Those countries are linked by flows of people, money, time lags and above all the several decades that it will take goods, ideas, images, drugs, and weapons. If we in to substantially successfully transform the world's fossil the industrialized countries are to enjoy a stable fuel-dependent energy supply system mean that doing and sustainable prosperity, we are only going to be nothing is a very dangerous course of action. The world's able to manage that if we can achieve for the rest of energy-economic system is a lot like a supertanker, very the world now kss fortunate a stable and hard to steer and with very bad brakes, and we know from the science that has been reviewed here today that that swtainable prosperity as well. And the only way to supertanker is heading for a reef. Even though we can't say do that is, going to include addressing the danger of exactly when we're going to get to the point where that global climate disruption in a cooperative way. ":; reef rips the bottom out of the supertanker, it's a bad idea — John Holdren in these circumstances to keep on a course of full speed ahead.

v __ ''-f, f 7 '- "The world's energy-economic systern is A lot like a. supertanker,"very hard3o,steer~,and with very bad THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you. brakes, and we know from the-science that has been - - THE PRESIDENT: I wish every American could hear reviewed here today that that supertanker is ^ what we've heard today. This is the beginning of a consis- : ^ heading for a reef,," ' _ , tent, long-term effort that we all have to make to involve -" ~ , , '- —- JohrTHoldren the people of this country in this decision. And I thank you all for the points you've made because in different ways each of them will resonate with citizens of this country in a way that I believe will give us the support we The last reason that people tend to underrate this problem need to take the action that has to be taken. In the weeks is because the fate of industrialized and less developed and mondis ahead, the Vice President, the Cabinet, other countries is a lot more interconnected than most people members of the Administration, and I will be out in the think. We all live on this planet under one atmosphere. country discussing this. We will be working with the We all live on the shores of one global ocean. Our coun- American people. We will be talking about solutions as tries are linked by flows of people, money, goods, ideas, well as problems. images, drugs, and weapons. If we in the industrialized countries are to enjoy a stable and sustainable prosperity, we are only going to be able to manage that if we can achieve for the rest of the world now less fortunate a stable and sustainable prosperity as well. And the only way to do that is going to include addressing the danger of global climate disruption in a cooperative way.

10 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 Biographies

Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland Dr. Jane Lubchenco (Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1995, (Professor at Oregon State University, Past Professor at University of California, Irvine, President of both the American Association Foreign Secretary for the National Academy for the Advancement of Science and the of Sciences, Past President of the American Ecological Society of America) Association for the Advancement of Science) Jane Lubchenco is currently the Wayne and In 1995) Sherwood Rowland, along widi two Gladys Valley Professor of Marine Biology of his colleagues, won die Nobel Prize in and Distinguished Professor of Zoology at Chemistry for pioneering research in atmos- Oregon State University, and has been pheric chemistry of the destruction of die ozone layer. Since awarded a litany of honors. She has been selected as a Pew Scholar receiving his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1952, he in Conservation and die Environment, a MacArthur Fellow, a has climbed die academic ranks in chemistry, and is currently die member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a member of Donald Bren Research Professor of Chemistry and Earth System the National Science Board. She is also an American Academy of Science at the University of California at Irvine. Dr. Rowland has Arts and Sciences Fellow, an American Association for the received many awards including the Roger Revelle Medal from Advancement of Science Fellow, and has received numerous die American Geophysical Union. He also currendy serves as die teaching awards. She has accomplished all of this since receiving Foreign Secretary of die National Academy of Sciences, and is a her Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1975. former President and Chairman of die Board of die American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Dr. Stephen Schneider (Professor at Stanford University, Dr. Mario Molina MacArthur Fellowship, the American (Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1995, Association for the Advancement of Science Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Westinghouse Award for Public Technology, Member of the President's Understanding of Science and Technology) Committee of Advisors on Science and After receiving his Ph.D. in Mechanical Technology) Engineering and Plasma Physics from Mario Molina was awarded the Nobel Prize Columbia University in 1971, Stephen along with Sherwood Rowland for research Schneider focused on the influence of greenhouse gases and on the thinning of the ozone layer. Dr. suspended particles on the earth's climate as a postdoctoral Molina, and his colleagues demonstrated experimentally how researcher at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and ozone-destroying chlorine functions in die atmosphere. He is later at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, where he currendy the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of remained until 1996. In 1992, Dr. Schneider was awarded a Environmental Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. MacArthur Fellowship for his ability to integrate and interpret Since completing his Ph.D. in physical chemistry at the the results of global climate research through public lectures, University of California, Berkeley, Dr. Molina has received many seminars, media appearances, and research. He was also honored honors and awards, including election to the National Academy with the American Association for the Advancement of Science of Sciences, and selection as a Pew Scholar on Conservation and Westinghouse Award for Public Understanding of Science and die Environment. He has also served as an advisor to the Technology for his ability to express environmental science and National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National its implication for public policy to the general public. Currently Science Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health. he is a Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and a Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 11 Dr. Robert Shape Dr. John Holdren (Professor at University of Texas, Director of (Professor at Harvard University, member of the Yale Arbovirus Research Unit for 24 years) the President's Committee of Advisors on Robert Shope has devoted his career to the Science and Technology study of viruses carried by mosquitoes, ticks, John Holdren is a world-renowned expert and other biting insects. These viruses can on energy and environmental science. In cause life-threatening diseases in humans 1995, he delivered the Nobel Peace Prize such as malaria, dengue and yellow fevers, acceptance lecture on behalf of the Pugwash and encephalitis. Since receiving his medical Conferences, on the occasion of that organi- degree in 1954 from Cornell University, he zation's sharing of the 1995 prize. He is currently the Teresa and has spent many years in Malaysia, Brazil, and other tropical sites John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy and Director of studying these insect-borne diseases. He was a Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University's School of Medicine from 1975 the Program on Science, Technology, and Public Policy in the to 1995, and served as the Director of the Yale Arbovirus John F. Kennedy School of Government, and Professor of Research Unit. During that period he was awarded many Environmental Science and Public Policy in the Department of honors, including the Walter Reed Award from the American Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. From 1973 Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. He is presently a to 1996, he was a Professor of Energy and Resources at the Professor in the Departments of Pathology and Microbiology University of California at Berkeley. He has been elected ..a and Immunology at the University of Texas Medical Branch. Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Physical Society, the American Association for thlTAdvancement of Sciences, the California Academy of Sciences, arid the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was also awarded the MacArthur Foundation Prize. Dr. Holdren received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in aeronautics, astronautics and Dr. Henry Kendall theoretical plasma physics in 1970. (Nobel Laureate in Physics, 1990, Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman of the Board of the Union of Concerned Scientists) In 1990, Henry Kendall won the Nobel Prize in Physics, along with two colleagues, for his insightful work in particle physics. Dr. Kendall is currently the J.A. Stratton Professor of Physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He also serves as the Chairman of the Board of the Union of Concerned Scientists, an organization which he helped found in 1994. Throughout his career, Dr. Kendall has focused on U.S. energy and defense issues such as the nuclear arms race, nuclear power, and renewable energy. He has many other awards and honors including being elected to the National Academy of Sciences.

12 White House Roundtable on Climate Change, July 1997 To obtain additional information, contact:

The White House Executive Office of the President Office of Science and Technology Policy Washington, D.C. 20502 202-395-7347