MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS O2 1 39 October 10, 1997 HENRY W. KENDALL ROOM 2.4-51 4 (617) 253-7584 JULIUS A. STRATTON PROFESSOR OF PHYSICS Secretary- General Kofi A. Annan The United Nations United Nations Plaza . ..\ U New York City NY Dear Mr. Secretary-General: I have received your letter of October 1 , which you sent to me and my fellow Nobel laureates, inquiring whetHeTrwould, from time to time, provide advice and ideas so as to aid your organization in becoming more effective and responsive in its global tasks. I am grateful to be asked to support you and the United Nations for the contributions you can make to resolving the problems that now face the world are great ones. I would be pleased to help in whatever ways that I can. ~~ I have been involved in many of the issues that you deal with for many years, both as Chairman of the Union of Concerne., Scientists and, more recently, as an advisor to the World Bank. On several occasions I have participated in or initiated activities that brought together numbers of Nobel laureates to lend their voices in support of important international changes. -* . I include several examples of such activities: copies of documents, stemming from the . r work, that set out our views. I initiated the World Bank and the Union of Concerned Scientists' examples but responded to President Clinton's Round Table initiative. Again, my appreciation for your request;' I look forward to opportunities to contribute usefully. Sincerely yours ; Henry; W. JCendalH UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS "WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY" Summary Attached is the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a comprehensive statement prepared by UCS which summarizes the views of many prominent scientists on emerging threats to life-sustaining resources and the global environment. The statement outlines a broad agenda of corrective action, ranging from development of a new ethic within the scientific community to greater support for alternatives to fossil fuels and a comprehensive approach to stabilize population growth. UCS circulated the "Warning" to senior scientists around the world. In an effort to demonstrate consensus among scientists from both developed and developing countries, we sought endorsement from members of the leading scientific academies in North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. The response has been overwhelming: more than 1600 signatories from 70 countries. There should be no doubt that a broad consensus is emerging within the scientific community regarding the validity of major threats to the future well-being of humanity and the global environment. As indicated on the attachments, the quantity and calibre of signatories to this statement is quite unprecedented: • 104 scientists who have been awarded the Nobel Prize; • a substantial number of senior officers from national and international science academies (e.g., Third World Academy of Sciences, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of London, Chinese Academy of Sciences); • a majority of the members of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences (the prestigious body of scientists that advises Pope John Paul n on scientific issues). The "Warning" was the first project of a new UCS initiative called the Global Resources Project. Its goals are to greatly expand the participation of scientists in environmental, population, and development issues and to enhance the overall credibility of public education and policy debate. UCS Headquarters: 26 Church Street Cambridge, MA 02238 617-547-5552 FAX: 617-864-9405 1616 P Street NW Suite 310 Washington, DC 20036 202-332-0900 FAX: 202-332-0905 2397 Shattuck Avenue Suite 203 Berkeley, CA 94704 510-843-1872 FAX: 510-843-3785 PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER SUMMARY DATA ON THE WARNING SIGNATORIES TOTAL NUMBER OF SIGNATORIES AS OF FEBRUARY 1, 1993: • 1,680 — all signatories are fellows or members of one or more national or international science academies NOBEL LAUREATE SCIENTISTS: • 104 — a majority of scientists who have been awarded the Nobel prize TOTAL NUMBER OF COUNTRIES REPRESENTED: • 70 SIGNATORIES FROM LEADING SCIENTIFIC ACADEMIES OR ASSOCIATIONS: • Regional or Global Carlos Chagas, President, Latin American Academy of Sciences; Former President, Pontifical Academy of Sciences Mahdi Elmandjra, Vice President, African Academy of Sciences Mohammed H. A. Hassan, Executive Secretary, Third World Academy of Sciences Frederico Mayor, Director General, UNESCO M.G.K. Menon, President, International Council of Scientific Unions Abdus Salam, President, Third World Academy of Sciences • National Carlos Aguirre, President, Bolivian Academy of Sciences Michael Atiyah, President, Royal Society (London) Adolph Butenandt, Former President, Max-Planck Institut, Germany Ennio Candotti, President, Brazilian Society for the Advancement of Science Johanna Dobereiner, First Secretary, Brazilian Academy of Sciences Dagfinn Follesdal, President, Norwegian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Frolov, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Carl-Olof Jacobson, Secretary-General, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Torvard Laurent, President, Royal SwedishAcademy of Sciences Leon Lederman, Chairman, American Association for the Advancement of Science Digby McLaren, Former President, Royal Society of Canada Gennady Mesiatz, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Gustavo Rivas Mijares, Former President, Venezuelan Academy of Sciences Oleg M. Nefedov, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Cyril Agodi Onwumechili, Former President, Academy of Sciences, Nigeria Yuri Ossipyan, Vice President, Russian Academy of Sciences Autar Singh Paintal, Former President, Indian National Science Academy Sherwood Roland, President, American Association for the Advancement of Science Zhou Guang Zhao, President, Chinese Academy of Sciences OTHER NOBEL LAUREATE SIGNATORIES: Camila Jose Cela, Spain Nadine Gordimer, South Africa Archbishop Desmond Tutu, South Africa Note: Affiliations are listed for identification purposes only. WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY INTRODUCTION Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about. THE ENVIRONMENT The environment is suffering critical stress: The Atmosphere Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet radiation at the earth's surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests and crops. Water Resources Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the world's surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80 countries, containing 40% of the world's population. Pollution of rivers, lakes and ground water further limits the supply. Oceans Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of the world's food fish. The total marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste - some of it toxic. Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment, is a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth's vegetated surface has been degraded - an area larger than India and China combined -and per capita food production in many parts of the world is decreasing. Forests Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in a few years, and most of the tropical rain forest will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will go large numbers of plant and animal species. Living Species The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of all species now living, is especially serious. We are losing the potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the robustness of the world's biological systems and to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself. Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or permanent. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation, may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming are still uncertain — with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very severe — but the potential risks are very great. Our massive tampering with the world's interdependent web of life — coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate change — could trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and