Regionalklima Beispiele aus der Abteilung „Regionale Atmosphärenmodellierung“ Burkhardt Rockel
Date / Location Downscaling Cascade
Global Continental Dynamical Downscaling Regional Dynamical Downscaling Atmosphere - Ocean
Local Empirical Downscaling
B.Rockel KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 2 Regional Reconstructions (1950-present)
KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 3 CLM-Community: Towards a modular regional weather and climate system model
Regional Atmosphere
CCLM (COSMO-CLM)
CICE ECHAM OASIS (Coupler) Sea Ice Global Atmosphere
TRIMNP (N.- B. Sea)
CLandM Veg3D TERRA FLake ART NEMO (Med. Sea) Ocean Land Surface / Soil Lakes Chemistry ROMS (SW-Atlantic)
more than 200 international scientists from more than 50 institutions
B.Rockel KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 4 CLM-Community: Towards a modular regional weather and climate system model
Regional Atmosphere
CCLM (COSMO-CLM)
CICE ECHAM OASIS (Coupler) Sea Ice Global Atmosphere
TRIMNP (N.- B. Sea)
CLandM Veg3D TERRA FLake ART NEMO (Med. Sea) Ocean Land Surface / Soil Lakes Chemistry ROMS (SW-Atlantic)
more than 200 international scientists from more than 50 institutions
B.Rockel KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 5 COSTRICE – an atmosphere - ocean - sea ice coupled model system for regional climate simulations for the North- and Baltic Sea
COSTRICE = COSMO-CLM (CCLM, version 4.8_11) + TRIMNP version 2.1 to reproduce air - ocean - sea ice + CICE version 4.1 interactions and feedbacks + OASIS3
COSMO-CLM TRIMNP CICE Initial OISST, atm Global reanalysis FES2004, LEVITUS94 Initial OISST
Setup Setup Setup
Dynamics & Dynamics & Dynamics & Physics Physics Physics ice Ouput Output Output
ocn
Prediction Prediction Prediction
H. Hagemann KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 6 COSTRICE vs. Measurements
Left: area averaged monthly SST [K] of the Baltic Proper Right: annual variation of area averaged sea ice concentration [%] of the Bothnian Bay Time: 1998-2002 Lines: - NOAA OISST/sea ice satellite + bouy data (dark blue) - STERAi (ocean blue, standalone ocean) - CPERAi (red, COSTRICE)
The negative MSLP bias over North Atlantic Ocean, the North- and Baltic Seas in uncoupled CCLM is reduced by COSTRICE. Consequently, COSTRICE has reduced precipitation biases over Baltic catchment areas.
a) STERAi b) CPERAi
Shaded: precipitation [mm/month] CCLM - WATCH data Contours: MSLP [Pa] CCLM - ERA-interim Time: JJA 1998-2002 CCLM versions: a) STERAi (standalone) b) CPERAi (COSTRICE)
mm Pa mm Pa
H. Hagemann KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 7 A Multi-decadal High-resolution Hindcast of Wind and Waves for Bohai and Yellow Sea
Ø Aims: Wind and wave reconstruction using CCLM with 7-km resolution; Assessment of possible added values from dynamical downscaling; Analysis of the tendencies, variability and extremes of wind and wave .
ØSensitivity experiments: Sensitivity studies concerning impacts of different forcing datasets.
Ø Li, D., B. Geyer, B. Rockel and H. von Storch, 2013: The comparisons of high- resolution modeled wind speed driven by different forcing datasets over Bohai and Yellow Sea, in preparation.
D. Li KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 8 Evaluation of Taifun Track
D. Li KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 9 Variability of snow cover characteristics in Siberia
Klehmet, K., B. Geyer, and B. Rockel, 2013: A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia - assessing the added value of snow water equivalent using ESA GlobSnow and reanalyses, submitted to The Cryosphere
Regional climate hindcast (1948-2010) for Siberia using CCLM Objec ves: Assessment of the added value of RCM hindcast for snow water equivalent Analysis of variability, changes of snow cover characteris cs over the last decades Configura on of the RCM CCLM for Siberia Methods: Sensi vity Studies (e.g. sensi vity of CCLM to choice of forcing) Dynamical downscaling of reanalysis to perform hindcast simula on Comparison of RCM results with forcing, further reanalyses, observa ons
Projects PACES,
K. Klehmet KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 10 A regional climate model hindcast for Siberia - assessing the added value of snow water equivalent using ESA GlobSnow SWE [mm]
Snow water equivalent (SWE) : mean values of April for 1987-2010
K. Klehmet KSR Group for Regional Atmospheric Modelling 11 9501 medicane ECMWF 25 km resolution simulation 10 km resolution simulation
1995/01/16 @ 00h UTC ECMWF 25 km 10 km Min value 1014 hPa 1016 hPa 1000 hPa
1995/01/16 @ 18h UTC ECMWF 25 km 10 km Min value 1022 hPa 1022 hPa 1006 hPa 9501 medicane: wind pattern •Maximum wind speed ~ 25 m/s in 1995/01/16 @ 06h UTC satellite measurement and high resolution simulation •30% lower in the low resolution simulation •fine structure of the storm visible in the high resolution simulation, showing a windless air column in the storm center, NOAA corresponding to the cyclone’s eye
25 km resolution simulation 10 km resolution simulation Observed and projected precipitation trends (1972-2011)
Projected GSsignal Observed trend patterns (RCMs) patterns Observed 1972-2011 (CRU, EOBS)
Projected GS signal(ENSEMBLES)
ØIn autumn (SON) the observed negative trends of precipitation contradicts the upward trends suggested by 10 climate change scenarios, irrespective of the observed dataset used.
1 A. Barkhordarian