The Hadgem2 Family of Met Office Unified Model Climate Configurations
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Western Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Expected
Clim. Past, 5, 1–12, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/ Climate © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under of the Past the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Received: 28 July 2008 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 29 July 2008 Revised: 22 December 2008 – Accepted: 22 December 2008 – Published: 21 January 2009 Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so by Regional Climate models (RCMs) do not deviate much strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. from GCMs, as the prescribed SST and boundary condition This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warm- determine the temperature to a large extent (Lenderink et al., ing predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), 2007). which up to now could not be verified directly to observations By now, global warming can be detected even on the grid on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too point scale. In this paper we investigate the high tempera- low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over ture trends observed in western Europe over the last decades. the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by First we compare these with the trends expected on the basis state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due of climate model experiments. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
A Scoping Study On: Research Into Changes in Sediment Dynamics Linked to Marine Renewable Energy Installations
A Scoping Study on: Research into Changes in Sediment Dynamics Linked to Marine Renewable Energy Installations Laurent Amoudry3, Paul S. Bell3, Kevin S. Black2, Robert W. Gatliff1 Rachel Helsby2, Alejandro J. Souza3, Peter D. Thorne3, Judith Wolf3 April 2009 1British Geological Survey Murchison House West Mains Road Edinburgh EH9 3LA [email protected] www.bgs.ac.uk 2Partrac Ltd 141 St James Rd Glasgow G4 0LT [email protected] www.partrac.com 3Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Joseph Proudman Building 6 Brownlow Street Liverpool L3 5DA, www.pol.ac.uk 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study scopes research into the impacts and benefits of large-scale coastal and offshore marine renewable energy projects in order to allow NERC to develop detailed plans for research activities in the 2009 Theme Action Plans. Specifically this study focuses on understanding changes in sediment dynamics due to renewable energy structures. Three overarching science ideas have emerged where NERC could provide a significant contribution to the knowledge base. Research into these key areas has the potential to help the UK with planning, regulation and monitoring of marine renewable installations in a sustainable way for both stakeholders and the environment. A wide ranging consultation with stakeholders was carried out encompassing regulators, developers, researchers and other marine users with a relevance to marine renewable energy and/or sediment dynamics. Based on this consultation a review of the present state of knowledge has been produced, and a relevant selection of recent and current research projects underway within the UK identified to which future NERC funded research could add value. A great deal of research has already been done by other organisations in relation to the wind sector although significant gaps remain, particularly in long term and far-field effects. -
Improving Climate Model Accuracy by Exploring Parameter Space with an O(105) Member
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(105) member 2 ensemble and emulator 3 Sihan Li1,2, David E. Rupp3, Linnia Hawkins3,6, Philip W. Mote3,6, Doug McNeall4, Sarah 4 N. Sparrow2, David C. H. Wallom2, Richard A. Betts4,5, Justin J. Wettstein6,7,8 5 1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University 6 of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 7 2Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 8 3Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric 9 Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 10 4Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 11 5College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 12 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 13 Oregon 14 7Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway 15 8Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change Research, Bergen, Norway 16 Correspondence to: Sihan Li ([email protected]) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 24 Abstract 25 Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many 26 of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental 27 mid-latitudes. -
ABSTRACTS and BIOGRAPHIES the Role for Climate Services in Handling Climate Change Risk: Contributions of UKCP18
ABSTRACTS AND BIOGRAPHIES The Role for Climate Services in Handling Climate Change Risk: Contributions of UKCP18 Introduction to Climate Services and Handling Climate Risk Prof Sir Brian Hoskins CBE Hon FRMetS, University of Reading and Grantham Institute ABSTRACT | A historical perspective on Climate Services and handling climate risk will be given. Various approaches for the decadal to century time-scale will be discussed. BIOGRAPHY | Sir Brian was the Founding Director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and is now its Chair. He has been a Professor in Meteorology at the University of Reading for many years and now holds a part-time post. He has also just finished 10 years as a Member of the UK Committee on Climate Change. He is a member of the scientific academies of the UK, USA and China. What do Policymakers need from Climate Projections? Baroness Brown (Julia King), Chair of Adaptation Committee of CCC ABSTRACT | Baroness Brown chairs the Adaptation Committee of the Committee on Climate Change. The CCC is required under the Climate Change Act to give advice to the government on climate change risks and opportunities, through the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. The CCC produced an independent Evidence Report for the CCRA, at the request of the government, in 2016, and will do so again in 2021. UKCP18 has been developed on a timescale to allow the results to be fed into the upcoming assessment. Baroness Brown will discuss the CCC’s role in the assessment and plans for making use of UKCP18. She will also touch on the Adaptation Committee’s analysis of what policy makers need to do to set in place effective adaptation policies and actions, and how climate projections can feed into this. -
A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation–Atmosphere–Sea Ice
642 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 12 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation±Atmosphere±Sea Ice Feedback STEVEN R. JAYNE MIT±WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts JOCHEM MAROTZKE Center for Global Change Science, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 18 November 1996 and 9 March 1998 ABSTRACT Some of the interactions and feedbacks between the atmosphere, thermohaline circulation, and sea ice are illustrated using a simple process model. A simpli®ed version of the annual-mean coupled ocean±atmosphere box model of Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke is modi®ed to include a parameterization of sea ice. The model includes the thermodynamic effects of sea ice and allows for variable coverage. It is found that the addition of sea ice introduces feedbacks that have a destabilizing in¯uence on the thermohaline circulation: Sea ice insulates the ocean from the atmosphere, creating colder air temperatures at high latitudes, which cause larger atmospheric eddy heat and moisture transports and weaker oceanic heat transports. These in turn lead to thicker ice coverage and hence establish a positive feedback. The results indicate that generally in colder climates, the presence of sea ice may lead to a signi®cant destabilization of the thermohaline circulation. Brine rejection by sea ice plays no important role in this model's dynamics. The net destabilizing effect of sea ice in this model is the result of two positive feedbacks and one negative feedback and is shown to be model dependent. To date, the destabilizing feedback between atmospheric and oceanic heat ¯uxes, mediated by sea ice, has largely been neglected in conceptual studies of thermohaline circulation stability, but it warrants further investigation in more realistic models. -
Documentation and Software User’S Manual, Version 4.1
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Canadian Meteorological Centre Technical Note H. Lin1, W. J. Merryfield2, R. Muncaster1, G. Smith1, M. Markovic3, A. Erfani3, S. Kharin2, W.-S. Lee2, M. Charron1 1-Meteorological Research Division 2-Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) 3-Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) 7 May 2019 i Revisions Version Date Authors Remarks 1.0 2019/04/22 Hai Lin First draft 1.1 2019/04/26 Hai Lin Corrected the bias figures. Comments from Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield 1.2 2019/05/01 Hai Lin Figures of CanSIPSv2 uses CanCM4i plus GEM-NEMO 1.3 2019/05/03 Bill Merrifield Added CanCM4i information, sea ice Hai Lin verification, 6.6 and 9 1.4 2019/05/06 Hai Lin All figures of CanSIPSv2 with CanCM4i and GEM-NEMO, made available by Slava Kharin ii © Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Modifications to models .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 CanCM4i .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 GEM-NEMO .................................................................................................................... 6 3 Forecast initialization ............................................................................................................. -
Climate Change – Hubris Or Nemesis for Nuclear Power?
climate change – hubris or nemesis for nuclear power? Proposals for new nuclear power installations are often presented as integral to solutions to climate change, but the dangers of sites in low-lying coastal areas only add to a range of threats to security and the environment posed by nuclear power, says Andrew Blowers Brian Jay ‘It was now that wind and sea in concert leaped forward to their triumph.’ Hilda Grieve: The Great Tide: The Story of the 1953 Flood Disaster in Essex. County Council of Essex, 1959 The Great Tide of 31 January/1 February 1953 swept down the east coast of England, carrying death and destruction in its wake. Communities were unaware and unprepared as disaster struck in the middle of the night, drowning over 300 in England, in poor and vulnerable communities such as Jaywick and Canvey Island on the exposed and low-lying Essex coast. The flooded causeway to Mersea Island after the Great Although nothing quite so devastating has occurred Tide of 1953 in the 67 years since, the 1953 floods remain a portent of what the effects of climate change may of the first (Magnox) nuclear stations in the UK and bring in the years to come. operated for 40 years from 1962 to 2002, becoming, Since that largely unremembered disaster, flood in 2018, the first to be decommissioned and enter defences, communications and emergency response into ‘care and maintenance’. systems have been put in place right along the east These and other nuclear stations around our coast coast, although it will only be a matter of time before were conceived and constructed long before climate the sea reclaims some low-lying areas. -
Tropical Climate
UGAMP: A network of excellence in climate modelling and research Issue 27 October 2003 UGAMP Coordinator: Prof. Julia Slingo [email protected] Newsletter Editor: Dr. Glenn Carver [email protected] Newsletter website: acmsu.nerc.ac.uk/newsletter.html Contents NCAS News . 2 NCAS Websites . 3 NCAS Centres and Facilities . 3 UGAMP Coordinator . 4 CGAM Director . 4 ACMSU Director . 4 HPC Facilities . 5 New areas of UGAMP science 7 Chemistry-climate interactions . 19 Climate variability and predictability . 32 Atmospheric Composition . 48 Tropospheric chemistry and aerosols . 58 Climate Dynamics . 64 Model development . 72 Group News . 78 (for full contents see listing on the inside back cover) NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science, NCAS Alan Thorpe ([email protected]): Director NCAS Since the last UGAMP Newsletter there have been a significant number of NCAS developments relevant to the UK atmospheric science community. These include the following, which are particularly pertinent to the UGAMP community: • NERC have agreed to fund a new directed (new name for thematic) programme called “Surface Ocean – Lower Atmosphere Study” or SOLAS for short. • NERC have agreed to fund a “pump-priming” activity for a proposed new directed programme called Flood Risk from Extreme Events, FREE. The full proposal for FREE will be considered by NERC early in 2004. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop a new chemistry module for the HadGEM model. This is called UK-CHEM and Olaf Morgenstern at ACMSU is collaborating closely with the Hadley Centre on the project. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop the science for a new aerosol module for HadGEM. -
Results from the Implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic Sea Ice Rheology in Hadcm3 W
Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren To cite this version: W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3. Ocean Science, European Geosciences Union, 2006, 2 (2), pp.201- 211. hal-00298295 HAL Id: hal-00298295 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298295 Submitted on 23 Oct 2006 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Ocean Sci., 2, 201–211, 2006 www.ocean-sci.net/2/201/2006/ Ocean Science © Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley1, A. B. Keen2, and A. J. McLaren2 1British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK 2Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Received: 13 June 2006 – Published in Ocean Sci. Discuss.: 10 July 2006 Revised: 21 September 2006 – Accepted: 16 October 2006 – Published: 23 October 2006 Abstract. We present results of an implementation of the a full dynamical model incorporating wind stresses and in- Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into ternal ice stresses leads to errors in the detailed representa- the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model tion of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predic- HadCM3. -
3. CICE-Mixed Layer Model 4. Mixed Layer/ Sea Ice Results 5. Surface
The ocean mixed layer, buoyancy fluxes, and sea ice over the Antarctic continental shelf Alek Petty1, Daniel Feltham2 & Paul Holland3 1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Earth Sciences, UCL, London, WC1E6BT 2. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB 2. British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET A sea ice-mixed layer model has been used to investigate regional variations in the surface-driven formation of Antarctic shelf sea waters. The model captures well the expected sea ice thickness distribution, and produces deep mixed layers in the Weddell and Ross shelf seas each winter (1985-2011). By deconstructing the surface power input to the mixed layer, we have shown that the salt/fresh water flux from sea ice growth/melt dominates the evolution of the mixed layer in all shelf sea regions, with a smaller contribution from the mixed layer-surface heat flux. An analysis of the sea ice mass balance has demonstrated the contrasting mean ice growth, melt and export in each region. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas expereince the highest annual ice growth, with a large fraction of this ice exported northwards each year, whereas the Bellingshausen shelf sea experiences the highest annual ice melt, despite the low annual ice growth. Cur- rent work (not shown) is focussed on atmospheric forcing trends and the resultant trends in the sea ice and mixed layer evolution using both ERA-I hindcast forcing and hadGEM2 future climate projections. 1. Introduction The continental shelf seas surround- ing Antarctica are a crucial compo- nent of the Earth’s climate system, with the Weddell and Ross (WR) shelf seas cooling and ventilating the deep ocean and feeding the global thermohaline circulation, whereas the warm waters in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen (AB) shelf seas (see Figure 1) are implicit in the recent ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. -
On the Uses of a New Linear Scheme for Stratospheric Methane in Global Models: Water Source, Transport Tracer and Radiative Forc
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 479–523, 2012 Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/479/2012/ Chemistry doi:10.5194/acpd-12-479-2012 and Physics © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Discussions This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP if available. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing B. M. Monge-Sanz1, M. P. Chipperfield1, A. Untch2, J.-J. Morcrette2, A. Rap1, and A. J. Simmons2 1Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Received: 10 October 2011 – Accepted: 5 November 2011 – Published: 6 January 2012 Correspondence to: B. M. Monge-Sanz ([email protected]) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 479 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract A new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane (CoMeCAT) has been devel- oped and tested. The scheme is derived from a 3-D full chemistry transport model (CTM) and tested within the same chemistry model itself, as well as in an independent 5 general circulation model (GCM). The new CH4/H2O scheme is suitable for any global model and here is shown to provide realistic profiles in the 3-D TOMCAT/SLIMCAT CTM and in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) GCM.