The Sea Ice Component of the Coupled Climate Model Hadgem1 A
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Western Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Expected
Clim. Past, 5, 1–12, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/ Climate © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under of the Past the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Received: 28 July 2008 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 29 July 2008 Revised: 22 December 2008 – Accepted: 22 December 2008 – Published: 21 January 2009 Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so by Regional Climate models (RCMs) do not deviate much strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. from GCMs, as the prescribed SST and boundary condition This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warm- determine the temperature to a large extent (Lenderink et al., ing predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), 2007). which up to now could not be verified directly to observations By now, global warming can be detected even on the grid on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too point scale. In this paper we investigate the high tempera- low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over ture trends observed in western Europe over the last decades. the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by First we compare these with the trends expected on the basis state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due of climate model experiments. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
Improving Climate Model Accuracy by Exploring Parameter Space with an O(105) Member
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(105) member 2 ensemble and emulator 3 Sihan Li1,2, David E. Rupp3, Linnia Hawkins3,6, Philip W. Mote3,6, Doug McNeall4, Sarah 4 N. Sparrow2, David C. H. Wallom2, Richard A. Betts4,5, Justin J. Wettstein6,7,8 5 1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University 6 of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 7 2Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 8 3Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric 9 Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 10 4Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 11 5College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 12 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 13 Oregon 14 7Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway 15 8Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change Research, Bergen, Norway 16 Correspondence to: Sihan Li ([email protected]) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 24 Abstract 25 Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many 26 of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental 27 mid-latitudes. -
A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation–Atmosphere–Sea Ice
642 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 12 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation±Atmosphere±Sea Ice Feedback STEVEN R. JAYNE MIT±WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts JOCHEM MAROTZKE Center for Global Change Science, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 18 November 1996 and 9 March 1998 ABSTRACT Some of the interactions and feedbacks between the atmosphere, thermohaline circulation, and sea ice are illustrated using a simple process model. A simpli®ed version of the annual-mean coupled ocean±atmosphere box model of Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke is modi®ed to include a parameterization of sea ice. The model includes the thermodynamic effects of sea ice and allows for variable coverage. It is found that the addition of sea ice introduces feedbacks that have a destabilizing in¯uence on the thermohaline circulation: Sea ice insulates the ocean from the atmosphere, creating colder air temperatures at high latitudes, which cause larger atmospheric eddy heat and moisture transports and weaker oceanic heat transports. These in turn lead to thicker ice coverage and hence establish a positive feedback. The results indicate that generally in colder climates, the presence of sea ice may lead to a signi®cant destabilization of the thermohaline circulation. Brine rejection by sea ice plays no important role in this model's dynamics. The net destabilizing effect of sea ice in this model is the result of two positive feedbacks and one negative feedback and is shown to be model dependent. To date, the destabilizing feedback between atmospheric and oceanic heat ¯uxes, mediated by sea ice, has largely been neglected in conceptual studies of thermohaline circulation stability, but it warrants further investigation in more realistic models. -
Tropical Climate
UGAMP: A network of excellence in climate modelling and research Issue 27 October 2003 UGAMP Coordinator: Prof. Julia Slingo [email protected] Newsletter Editor: Dr. Glenn Carver [email protected] Newsletter website: acmsu.nerc.ac.uk/newsletter.html Contents NCAS News . 2 NCAS Websites . 3 NCAS Centres and Facilities . 3 UGAMP Coordinator . 4 CGAM Director . 4 ACMSU Director . 4 HPC Facilities . 5 New areas of UGAMP science 7 Chemistry-climate interactions . 19 Climate variability and predictability . 32 Atmospheric Composition . 48 Tropospheric chemistry and aerosols . 58 Climate Dynamics . 64 Model development . 72 Group News . 78 (for full contents see listing on the inside back cover) NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science, NCAS Alan Thorpe ([email protected]): Director NCAS Since the last UGAMP Newsletter there have been a significant number of NCAS developments relevant to the UK atmospheric science community. These include the following, which are particularly pertinent to the UGAMP community: • NERC have agreed to fund a new directed (new name for thematic) programme called “Surface Ocean – Lower Atmosphere Study” or SOLAS for short. • NERC have agreed to fund a “pump-priming” activity for a proposed new directed programme called Flood Risk from Extreme Events, FREE. The full proposal for FREE will be considered by NERC early in 2004. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop a new chemistry module for the HadGEM model. This is called UK-CHEM and Olaf Morgenstern at ACMSU is collaborating closely with the Hadley Centre on the project. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop the science for a new aerosol module for HadGEM. -
Prep Publi Catio on Cop Py
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Board on Atmospheric Sciencees and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2016. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015- 63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE- 133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. -
Results from the Implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic Sea Ice Rheology in Hadcm3 W
Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren To cite this version: W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3. Ocean Science, European Geosciences Union, 2006, 2 (2), pp.201- 211. hal-00298295 HAL Id: hal-00298295 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298295 Submitted on 23 Oct 2006 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Ocean Sci., 2, 201–211, 2006 www.ocean-sci.net/2/201/2006/ Ocean Science © Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley1, A. B. Keen2, and A. J. McLaren2 1British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK 2Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Received: 13 June 2006 – Published in Ocean Sci. Discuss.: 10 July 2006 Revised: 21 September 2006 – Accepted: 16 October 2006 – Published: 23 October 2006 Abstract. We present results of an implementation of the a full dynamical model incorporating wind stresses and in- Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into ternal ice stresses leads to errors in the detailed representa- the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model tion of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predic- HadCM3. -
3. CICE-Mixed Layer Model 4. Mixed Layer/ Sea Ice Results 5. Surface
The ocean mixed layer, buoyancy fluxes, and sea ice over the Antarctic continental shelf Alek Petty1, Daniel Feltham2 & Paul Holland3 1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Earth Sciences, UCL, London, WC1E6BT 2. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB 2. British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET A sea ice-mixed layer model has been used to investigate regional variations in the surface-driven formation of Antarctic shelf sea waters. The model captures well the expected sea ice thickness distribution, and produces deep mixed layers in the Weddell and Ross shelf seas each winter (1985-2011). By deconstructing the surface power input to the mixed layer, we have shown that the salt/fresh water flux from sea ice growth/melt dominates the evolution of the mixed layer in all shelf sea regions, with a smaller contribution from the mixed layer-surface heat flux. An analysis of the sea ice mass balance has demonstrated the contrasting mean ice growth, melt and export in each region. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas expereince the highest annual ice growth, with a large fraction of this ice exported northwards each year, whereas the Bellingshausen shelf sea experiences the highest annual ice melt, despite the low annual ice growth. Cur- rent work (not shown) is focussed on atmospheric forcing trends and the resultant trends in the sea ice and mixed layer evolution using both ERA-I hindcast forcing and hadGEM2 future climate projections. 1. Introduction The continental shelf seas surround- ing Antarctica are a crucial compo- nent of the Earth’s climate system, with the Weddell and Ross (WR) shelf seas cooling and ventilating the deep ocean and feeding the global thermohaline circulation, whereas the warm waters in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen (AB) shelf seas (see Figure 1) are implicit in the recent ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. -
Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J
1 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Kesten Green (Australia) 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Key Findings Introduction 1.1 Model Simulation and Forecasting 1.2 Modeling Techniques 1.3 Elements of Climate 1.4 Large Scale Phenomena and Teleconnections Key Findings Confidence in a model is further based on the The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of careful evaluation of its performance, in which model general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future output is compared against actual observations. A climate and attribute observed climate change to large portion of this chapter, therefore, is devoted to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. They the evaluation of climate models against real-world claim the “development of climate models has climate and other biospheric data. That evaluation, resulted in more realism in the representation of many summarized in the findings of numerous peer- quantities and aspects of the climate system,” adding, reviewed scientific papers described in the different “it is extremely likely that human activities have subsections of this chapter, reveals the IPCC is caused more than half of the observed increase in overestimating the ability of current state-of-the-art global average surface temperature since the 1950s” GCMs to accurately simulate both past and future (p. 9 and 10 of the Summary for Policy Makers, climate. The IPCC’s stated confidence in the models, Second Order Draft of AR5, dated October 5, 2012). as presented at the beginning of this chapter, is likely This chapter begins with a brief review of the exaggerated. -
Test Plan: CICE Sea Ice Model for NGGPS
Test Plan: CICE Sea Ice Model for NGGPS Final 16 March 2016 POC: Shan Sun – NOAA ESRL/GSD/GMTB – [email protected] Introduction After reviewing several sea ice models at the Sea Ice Workshop organized by Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB) in February 2016, the committee has selected the Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) as the sea ice model to be incorporated as a component of Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The GMTB is proposing to carry out testing and evaluations with this model in two phases as the next step. Testing framework Hebert et al. (2015) showed that the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) demonstrated a high level of skill compared to persistence in 1-7 day forecasts over a period of one year. ACNFS uses CICE version 4.0 [Hunke and Lipscomb, 2008] as the sea ice model two-way coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) [Bleck, 2002; Metzger et al., 2014, 2015]. Building on this study, we propose to base the test on a similar configuration. In order to make the test most relevant for NGGPS, there will be three important differences with respect to the Herbert et al. (2015) configuration. First, CICE will be upgraded to its latest version v5, [in which both the code structure and the state variables are similar to v4. The CICE5 code does include a number of new physics options such as the mushy-layer thermodynamics and two new melt pond parameterizations.] V5.1.2 is available at http://oceans11.lanl.gov/svn/CICE/tags/release-5.1.2. -
A New Dynamical Downscaling Approach with GCM Bias
PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM 10.1002/2014JD022958 bias corrections and spectral nudging Key Points: Zhongfeng Xu1 and Zong-Liang Yang2,3 • Both GCM and RCM biases should be constrained in regional climate 1RCE-TEA and Young Scientist Laboratory, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, projection 2 3 • The NDD approach significantly RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Department of Geological improves the downscaled climate Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA • NDD is designed for regional climate projection at various time scales Abstract To improve confidence in regional projections of future climate, a new dynamical downscaling Supporting Information: (NDD) approach with both general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections and spectral nudging is developed • Figures S1–S4 and assessed over North America. GCM biases are corrected by adjusting GCM climatological means and • Figure S1 variances based on reanalysis data before the GCM output is used to drive a regional climate model (RCM). • Figure S2 • Figure S3 Spectral nudging is also applied to constrain RCM-based biases. Three sets of RCM experiments are integrated • Figure S4 over a 31 year period. In the first set of experiments, the model configurations are identical except that the initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from either the original GCM output, the bias-corrected GCM output, Correspondence to: orthereanalysisdata.Thesecondset of experiments is the same as the first set except spectral nudging is applied. Z.-L. Yang, [email protected] The third set of experiments includes two sensitivity runs with both GCM bias corrections and nudging where the nudging strength is progressively reduced. -
Assimila Blank
NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009 Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected] NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 Contents 1. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Context .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 5 2. Scene setting ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ........................................................................ 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ................................................. 10 2.4 Structure of the report ...........................................................................................