Review of the Global Models Used Within Phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)
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Western Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Expected
Clim. Past, 5, 1–12, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/ Climate © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under of the Past the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Received: 28 July 2008 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 29 July 2008 Revised: 22 December 2008 – Accepted: 22 December 2008 – Published: 21 January 2009 Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so by Regional Climate models (RCMs) do not deviate much strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. from GCMs, as the prescribed SST and boundary condition This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warm- determine the temperature to a large extent (Lenderink et al., ing predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), 2007). which up to now could not be verified directly to observations By now, global warming can be detected even on the grid on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too point scale. In this paper we investigate the high tempera- low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over ture trends observed in western Europe over the last decades. the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by First we compare these with the trends expected on the basis state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due of climate model experiments. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
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15 NOVEMBER 2006 A R O R A A N D B O E R 5875 The Temporal Variability of Soil Moisture and Surface Hydrological Quantities in a Climate Model VIVEK K. ARORA AND GEORGE J. BOER Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada (Manuscript received 4 October 2005, in final form 8 February 2006) ABSTRACT The variance budget of land surface hydrological quantities is analyzed in the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP2) simulation made with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) third-generation general circulation model (AGCM3). The land surface parameteriza- tion in this model is the comparatively sophisticated Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS). Second- order statistics, namely variances and covariances, are evaluated, and simulated variances are compared with observationally based estimates. The soil moisture variance is related to second-order statistics of surface hydrological quantities. The persistence time scale of soil moisture anomalies is also evaluated. Model values of precipitation and evapotranspiration variability compare reasonably well with observa- tionally based and reanalysis estimates. Soil moisture variability is compared with that simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity-2 Layer (VIC-2L) hydrological model driven with observed meteorological data. An equation is developed linking the variances and covariances of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff to soil moisture variance via a transfer function. The transfer function is connected to soil moisture persistence in terms of lagged autocorrelation. Soil moisture persistence time scales are shorter in the Tropics and longer at high latitudes as is consistent with the relationship between soil moisture persis- tence and the latitudinal structure of potential evaporation found in earlier studies. -
Improving Climate Model Accuracy by Exploring Parameter Space with an O(105) Member
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(105) member 2 ensemble and emulator 3 Sihan Li1,2, David E. Rupp3, Linnia Hawkins3,6, Philip W. Mote3,6, Doug McNeall4, Sarah 4 N. Sparrow2, David C. H. Wallom2, Richard A. Betts4,5, Justin J. Wettstein6,7,8 5 1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University 6 of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 7 2Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 8 3Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric 9 Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 10 4Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 11 5College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 12 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 13 Oregon 14 7Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway 15 8Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change Research, Bergen, Norway 16 Correspondence to: Sihan Li ([email protected]) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 24 Abstract 25 Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many 26 of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental 27 mid-latitudes. -
A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation–Atmosphere–Sea Ice
642 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 12 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE A Destabilizing Thermohaline Circulation±Atmosphere±Sea Ice Feedback STEVEN R. JAYNE MIT±WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts JOCHEM MAROTZKE Center for Global Change Science, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 18 November 1996 and 9 March 1998 ABSTRACT Some of the interactions and feedbacks between the atmosphere, thermohaline circulation, and sea ice are illustrated using a simple process model. A simpli®ed version of the annual-mean coupled ocean±atmosphere box model of Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke is modi®ed to include a parameterization of sea ice. The model includes the thermodynamic effects of sea ice and allows for variable coverage. It is found that the addition of sea ice introduces feedbacks that have a destabilizing in¯uence on the thermohaline circulation: Sea ice insulates the ocean from the atmosphere, creating colder air temperatures at high latitudes, which cause larger atmospheric eddy heat and moisture transports and weaker oceanic heat transports. These in turn lead to thicker ice coverage and hence establish a positive feedback. The results indicate that generally in colder climates, the presence of sea ice may lead to a signi®cant destabilization of the thermohaline circulation. Brine rejection by sea ice plays no important role in this model's dynamics. The net destabilizing effect of sea ice in this model is the result of two positive feedbacks and one negative feedback and is shown to be model dependent. To date, the destabilizing feedback between atmospheric and oceanic heat ¯uxes, mediated by sea ice, has largely been neglected in conceptual studies of thermohaline circulation stability, but it warrants further investigation in more realistic models. -
Documentation and Software User’S Manual, Version 4.1
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Canadian Meteorological Centre Technical Note H. Lin1, W. J. Merryfield2, R. Muncaster1, G. Smith1, M. Markovic3, A. Erfani3, S. Kharin2, W.-S. Lee2, M. Charron1 1-Meteorological Research Division 2-Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) 3-Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) 7 May 2019 i Revisions Version Date Authors Remarks 1.0 2019/04/22 Hai Lin First draft 1.1 2019/04/26 Hai Lin Corrected the bias figures. Comments from Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield 1.2 2019/05/01 Hai Lin Figures of CanSIPSv2 uses CanCM4i plus GEM-NEMO 1.3 2019/05/03 Bill Merrifield Added CanCM4i information, sea ice Hai Lin verification, 6.6 and 9 1.4 2019/05/06 Hai Lin All figures of CanSIPSv2 with CanCM4i and GEM-NEMO, made available by Slava Kharin ii © Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Modifications to models .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 CanCM4i .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 GEM-NEMO .................................................................................................................... 6 3 Forecast initialization ............................................................................................................. -
Tropical Climate
UGAMP: A network of excellence in climate modelling and research Issue 27 October 2003 UGAMP Coordinator: Prof. Julia Slingo [email protected] Newsletter Editor: Dr. Glenn Carver [email protected] Newsletter website: acmsu.nerc.ac.uk/newsletter.html Contents NCAS News . 2 NCAS Websites . 3 NCAS Centres and Facilities . 3 UGAMP Coordinator . 4 CGAM Director . 4 ACMSU Director . 4 HPC Facilities . 5 New areas of UGAMP science 7 Chemistry-climate interactions . 19 Climate variability and predictability . 32 Atmospheric Composition . 48 Tropospheric chemistry and aerosols . 58 Climate Dynamics . 64 Model development . 72 Group News . 78 (for full contents see listing on the inside back cover) NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science, NCAS Alan Thorpe ([email protected]): Director NCAS Since the last UGAMP Newsletter there have been a significant number of NCAS developments relevant to the UK atmospheric science community. These include the following, which are particularly pertinent to the UGAMP community: • NERC have agreed to fund a new directed (new name for thematic) programme called “Surface Ocean – Lower Atmosphere Study” or SOLAS for short. • NERC have agreed to fund a “pump-priming” activity for a proposed new directed programme called Flood Risk from Extreme Events, FREE. The full proposal for FREE will be considered by NERC early in 2004. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop a new chemistry module for the HadGEM model. This is called UK-CHEM and Olaf Morgenstern at ACMSU is collaborating closely with the Hadley Centre on the project. •NCAS is supporting a project to develop the science for a new aerosol module for HadGEM. -
Prep Publi Catio on Cop Py
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Board on Atmospheric Sciencees and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2016. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015- 63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE- 133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. -
Results from the Implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic Sea Ice Rheology in Hadcm3 W
Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren To cite this version: W. M. Connolley, A. B. Keen, A. J. Mclaren. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3. Ocean Science, European Geosciences Union, 2006, 2 (2), pp.201- 211. hal-00298295 HAL Id: hal-00298295 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298295 Submitted on 23 Oct 2006 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Ocean Sci., 2, 201–211, 2006 www.ocean-sci.net/2/201/2006/ Ocean Science © Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Results from the implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3 W. M. Connolley1, A. B. Keen2, and A. J. McLaren2 1British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK 2Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Received: 13 June 2006 – Published in Ocean Sci. Discuss.: 10 July 2006 Revised: 21 September 2006 – Accepted: 16 October 2006 – Published: 23 October 2006 Abstract. We present results of an implementation of the a full dynamical model incorporating wind stresses and in- Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into ternal ice stresses leads to errors in the detailed representa- the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model tion of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predic- HadCM3. -
3. CICE-Mixed Layer Model 4. Mixed Layer/ Sea Ice Results 5. Surface
The ocean mixed layer, buoyancy fluxes, and sea ice over the Antarctic continental shelf Alek Petty1, Daniel Feltham2 & Paul Holland3 1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Earth Sciences, UCL, London, WC1E6BT 2. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB 2. British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET A sea ice-mixed layer model has been used to investigate regional variations in the surface-driven formation of Antarctic shelf sea waters. The model captures well the expected sea ice thickness distribution, and produces deep mixed layers in the Weddell and Ross shelf seas each winter (1985-2011). By deconstructing the surface power input to the mixed layer, we have shown that the salt/fresh water flux from sea ice growth/melt dominates the evolution of the mixed layer in all shelf sea regions, with a smaller contribution from the mixed layer-surface heat flux. An analysis of the sea ice mass balance has demonstrated the contrasting mean ice growth, melt and export in each region. The Weddell and Ross shelf seas expereince the highest annual ice growth, with a large fraction of this ice exported northwards each year, whereas the Bellingshausen shelf sea experiences the highest annual ice melt, despite the low annual ice growth. Cur- rent work (not shown) is focussed on atmospheric forcing trends and the resultant trends in the sea ice and mixed layer evolution using both ERA-I hindcast forcing and hadGEM2 future climate projections. 1. Introduction The continental shelf seas surround- ing Antarctica are a crucial compo- nent of the Earth’s climate system, with the Weddell and Ross (WR) shelf seas cooling and ventilating the deep ocean and feeding the global thermohaline circulation, whereas the warm waters in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen (AB) shelf seas (see Figure 1) are implicit in the recent ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. -
Large-Scale Tropospheric Transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Simulations
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations Clara Orbe1,2,3,a, Huang Yang3, Darryn W. Waugh3, Guang Zeng4, Olaf Morgenstern 4, Douglas E. Kinnison5, Jean-Francois Lamarque5, Simone Tilmes5, David A. Plummer6, John F. Scinocca7, Beatrice Josse8, Virginie Marecal8, Patrick Jöckel9, Luke D. Oman10, Susan E. Strahan10,11, Makoto Deushi12, Taichu Y. Tanaka12, Kohei Yoshida12, Hideharu Akiyoshi13, Yousuke Yamashita13,14, Andreas Stenke15, Laura Revell15,16, Timofei Sukhodolov15,17, Eugene Rozanov15,17, Giovanni Pitari18, Daniele Visioni18, Kane A. Stone19,20,b, Robyn Schofield19,20, and Antara Banerjee21 1Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research (GESTAR), Columbia, MD, USA 2Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA 3Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 4National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand 5National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Laboratory, Boulder, USA 6Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, QC, Canada 7Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada 8Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, -
On the Uses of a New Linear Scheme for Stratospheric Methane in Global Models: Water Source, Transport Tracer and Radiative Forc
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 479–523, 2012 Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/479/2012/ Chemistry doi:10.5194/acpd-12-479-2012 and Physics © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Discussions This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP if available. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing B. M. Monge-Sanz1, M. P. Chipperfield1, A. Untch2, J.-J. Morcrette2, A. Rap1, and A. J. Simmons2 1Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Received: 10 October 2011 – Accepted: 5 November 2011 – Published: 6 January 2012 Correspondence to: B. M. Monge-Sanz ([email protected]) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 479 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract A new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane (CoMeCAT) has been devel- oped and tested. The scheme is derived from a 3-D full chemistry transport model (CTM) and tested within the same chemistry model itself, as well as in an independent 5 general circulation model (GCM). The new CH4/H2O scheme is suitable for any global model and here is shown to provide realistic profiles in the 3-D TOMCAT/SLIMCAT CTM and in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) GCM.