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Climate Modelling Primer A Climate Modelling Primer A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition. K. McGuffie and A. Henderson-Sellers. © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd ISBN: 0-470-85750-1 (HB); 0-470-85751-X (PB) A Climate Modelling Primer THIRD EDITION Kendal McGuffie University of Technology, Sydney, Australia and Ann Henderson-Sellers ANSTO Environment, Australia Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone (+44) 1243 779777 Email (for orders and customer service enquiries): [email protected] Visit our Home Page on www.wileyeurope.com or www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, or emailed to [email protected], or faxed to (+44) 1243 770620. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The Publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA Jossey-Bass, 989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741, USA Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH, Boschstr. 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2 Clementi Loop #02-01, Jin Xing Distripark, Singapore 129809 John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd, 22 Worcester Road, Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada M9W 1L1 Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data McGuffie, Kendal. A climate modelling primer / Kendal McGuffie.– 3rd ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-470-85750-1 (cloth) – ISBN 0-470-85751-X (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Climatology–Mathematical models. I. Title. QC981.M482 2005 551.6¢01¢1–dc22 2004016112 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-470-85750-1 (HB) ISBN 0-470-85751-X (PB) Typeset in 10/12pt Times by SNP Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong Printed and bound in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production. TO James E. Lovelock who has shown us all the vitality of simple models Contents Preface . xiii Acknowledgements . xv CHAPTER 1 Climate . 1 1.1 The components of climate . 1 Introduction and outline of the book . 3 The climate system . 5 1.2 Climate change assessment . 7 1.2.1 The scientific perspective . 9 1.2.2 The human perspective . 13 1.2.3 Isotopes and climate . 18 1.3 Climate forcings . 22 1.3.1 External causes of climatic change . 23 Milankovitch variations . 23 Solar activity . 25 Other external factors . 26 1.3.2 Internal factors: human-induced changes . 26 Greenhouse gases . 26 Tropospheric aerosols and clouds . 27 Stratospheric ozone . 27 Land-surface changes . 29 1.3.3 Internal factors: natural changes . 31 Volcanic eruptions . 31 Ocean circulation changes . 33 1.4 Climate feedbacks and sensitivity . 35 1.4.1 The ice-albedo feedback mechanism . 36 1.4.2 The water vapour ‘greenhouse’ . 36 1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks . 36 1.4.4 Combining feedback effects . 38 1.5 Range of questions for climate modelling . 42 Recommended reading . 43 Web resources . 45 viii CONTENTS CHAPTER 2 A History of and Introduction to Climate Models . 47 2.1 Introducing climate modelling . 47 The need for simplification . 47 Resolution in time and space . 48 2.2 Types of climate models . 49 2.2.1 Energy balance climate models . 52 2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective climate models . 53 2.2.3 Dimensionally-constrained climate models . 54 2.2.4 General circulation models . 55 2.2.5 Stable isotopes and interactive biogeochemistry . 59 2.3 History of climate modelling . 63 2.4 Sensitivity of climate models . 66 Equilibrium climatic states . 67 Stability of model results . 68 Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems . 69 Measures of climate model sensitivity . 70 2.5 Parameterization of climatic processes . 72 Interactions in the climate system . 73 The need for observations . 76 2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling . 76 Recommended reading . 77 Web resources . 78 CHAPTER 3 Energy Balance Models . 81 3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget . 81 3.2 The structure of energy balance models . 82 3.2.1 Zero-dimensional EBMs . 82 3.2.2 One-dimensional EBMs . 85 3.3 Parameterizing the climate system for energy balance models . 86 Albedo . 87 Outgoing infrared radiation . 88 Heat transport . 88 3.4 BASIC models . 89 3.4.1 A BASIC EBM . 89 Description of the EBM . 89 EBM model code . 96 3.4.2 BASIC geophysiology . 96 3.5 Energy balance models and glacial cycles . 99 3.5.1 Milankovitch cycles . 101 3.5.2 Snowball Earth . 103 3.6 Box models – another form of energy balance model . 105 CONTENTS ix 3.6.1 Zonal box models that maximize planetary entropy . 106 3.6.2 A simple box model of the ocean–atmosphere . 108 3.6.3 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model . 111 3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple models . 113 Recommended reading . 115 Web resources . 116 CHAPTER 4 Intermediate Complexity Models . 117 4.1 Why lower complexity? . 117 4.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective models . 121 The structure of global radiative–convective models . 122 4.3 Radiation: the driver of climate . 124 4.3.1 Shortwave radiation . 126 Albedo . 128 Shortwave radiation subject to scattering (Rs) . 128 Shortwave radiation subject to absorption (Ra) . 129 4.3.2 Longwave radiation . 131 4.3.3 Heat balance at the ground . 133 4.4 Convective adjustment . 134 4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative–convective models . 136 Sensitivity to humidity . 137 Sensitivity to clouds . 138 Sensitivity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment . 139 4.6 Development of radiative–convective models . 140 4.6.1 Cloud prediction applied to the early Earth . 140 Cloud prediction . ..
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