NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009

Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected]

NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

Contents

1. BACKGROUND ...... 4 1.1 Introduction ...... 4 1.2 Context ...... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ...... 4 1.4 Methodology ...... 5 2. Scene setting ...... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy...... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ...... 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ...... 10 2.4 Structure of the report ...... 12 3. Climate and Earth system modelling at Met Office /Hadley Centre ...... 13 3.1 Introduction ...... 13 3.2 A MOHC perspective...... 13 4. Climate and Earth system models ...... 18 4.1 Introduction ...... 18 4.2 HadGEM ...... 18 4.2.1 High Resolution Climate Modelling Programme: HiGEM, NUGEM, HadGEM3-H. 18 4.2.2 QESM ...... 19 4.2.3 Vertically extended HadGEM models ...... 19 4.2.4 Use of HadGEM models ...... 20 4.3 HadCM3 and related models ...... 20 4.3.1 CHIME ...... 20 4.3.2 FAMOUS ...... 21 4.3.3 HadAM3 – enabled with water isotopes ...... 22 4.3.4 Climateprediction.net ...... 22 4.3.5 Use of HadCM3 ...... 23 4.4 GENIE ...... 23 4.5 Other climate and Earth system models used in UK ...... 24 4.6 Key issues ...... 24 5. Atmospheric dynamics ...... 27 5.1 Introduction ...... 27 5.2 IGCM ...... 27 5.3 Models used by NCAS Weather ...... 27 5.4 AtmosFOAM ...... 28 5.5 Key issues ...... 28 6. Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols ...... 29 6.1 Introduction ...... 29 6.2 UKCA ...... 29 6.3 GLOMAP ...... 30 6.4 CAM-Chem and WACCM ...... 32 6.5 FRSGC/UCI Chemical Transport Model ...... 32

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6.6 GEOS-Chem ...... 33 6.7 HadAM3-STOCHEM and HadCM3-STOCHEM ...... 33 6.8 TOMCAT/SLIMCAT, p-TOMCAT...... 34 6.9 Key issues ...... 34 7. Land ...... 36 7.1 Introduction ...... 36 7.2 JULES and its components ...... 36 7.3 MEGAN ...... 37 7.4 Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System ...... 37 7.5 Global Dynamical Vegetation Models ...... 38 7.6 Key issues ...... 38 8. Physical ocean ...... 40 8.1 Introduction ...... 40 8.2 NEMO ...... 40 8.3 ICOM ...... 42 8.4 POLCOMS ...... 43 8.5 Other models ...... 43 8.6 Key issues ...... 43 9. Ocean biogeochemistry...... 45 9.1 Introduction ...... 45 9.2 ERSEM ...... 45 9.3 MEDUSA ...... 46 9.4 PlankTOM ...... 46 9.5 Key issues ...... 47 10. Ice sheets and shelves ...... 49 10.1 Introduction ...... 49 10.2 Glimmer-CISM ...... 49 10.3 BASISM ...... 50 10.4 Key issues ...... 50 11. Sea ice ...... 51 11.1 Introduction ...... 51 11.2 CICE ...... 51 11.3 LIM ...... 52 11.4 Key issues ...... 52 12. OTHER ...... 53 12.1 Solid Earth ...... 53 12.2 Couplers...... 53 13. International Comparison ...... 55 13.1 Introduction ...... 55 13.2 International access, collaboration and visibility, Met Office ...... 55 13.2.1 The Met Office approach to access ...... 55 13.2.2 International collaboration and visibility ...... 55 13.2.3 International Standing of HadXX Models ...... 56 13.3 International access, collaboration and visibility, NERC ...... 57 2 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

13.3.1 Overview of NERC policy on international collaboration ...... 57 13.3.2 International collaboration in ESM ...... 57 13.4 Other International approaches to access and collaboration ...... 58 13.5 ESM Consortia ...... 58 13.6 Key issues ...... 59 14. Key Issues ...... 60 14.1 Degree of diversity ...... 60 14.2 Types of activity supported ...... 60 14.3 Model based activities and support required ...... 60 14.4 Governance ...... 61 14.5 Scale and complexity ...... 61 14.6 Timing and evolution ...... 62 A. List of contributors to the audit ...... 63 B. Relevance of models to NERC theme challenges ...... 68 C. Funding Streams ...... 76 D. Information on typical computing requirements ...... 78 E. List of abbreviations ...... 88

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1. BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction This report was commissioned by NERC and summarises the results of a national audit of the UK‟s Earth system modelling capabilities, benchmarked internationally and assessed against NERC‟s strategic requirements. The results of this audit (December 2009) provided an evidence base for the development of NERC‟s Strategy for ESM, as work towards a national strategy, developed in partnership with the Met Office, to ensure that the UK remains internationally competitive in this field.

1.2 Context The NERC strategy Next Generation Science for Planet Earth recognises that Earth System Modelling (ESM) is central to understanding and predicting climate and environmental change, critically important for extrapolating observational data to broader space and time scales, and to exploring linkages and feedbacks within the Earth System. ESMs and their components are highly complex pieces of software requiring many person‐years to develop and maintain. NERC supports a wide range of ESM related activities, yet until now, NERC has not tried to develop an overall strategic framework for the long term support and development of these models. A joint action from the Climate System and Earth System Science Theme Action Plans to develop and implement a NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling (ESM) was approved by NERC Council in 2008 to provide a strategic framework for the long-term support and development of these highly complex models to secure existing capability, ensure effective coordination of activities at a national level, and embrace new developments. Historically, in the UK, the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) has led the effort to develop weather forecasting and climate models and now works in partnership with NERC in the development of full Earth System Models. NERC involvement in Earth System Modelling has increased steadily in recent years, to the extent that NERC has been the leader of major collaborative modelling projects such as HiGEM (focussing on high resolution climate modelling), and QESM (developing a new Earth System Model), and has a central role in several others (JULES, UKCA, NEMO). The Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP) is an opportunity to forge a stronger partnership between NERC and the Met Office in Earth System Modelling and its applications to predicting climate. Equally, it is important to emphasise that NERC‟s interests in Earth System Modelling are not limited to collaboration with the Met Office. GENIE and ICOM are examples of a NERC funded ESM activities in which the Met Office is not (currently) involved. Many of NERC‟s ESM activities have developed within Research and Collaborative Centres (e.g. JULES‐ CEH, UKCA ‐ NCAS, NEMO ‐ Marine Centres), and there is ongoing commitment from these centres to support these activities as National Capability. However, in recent years NERC has supported a number of new ESM activities through time‐limited consortium funding (specifically: HiGEM, UJCC, GENIE, QESM, ICOM). There was a danger that the models and expertise would be lost before a strategic assessment had been made. Limited interim funding has been available to March 2011 to ensure that key expertise associated with these projects is not lost, and that these ESMs can be maintained and supported for community use, while completion and implementation of the National Strategy for ESM takes place.

1.3 Scope of the ESM audit NERC Council specified that the national audit of ESM capabilities, have 3 parts, covering major tools for modelling: a) physical climate system (to include modelling infrastructure); b) biological and chemical feedbacks on climate; c) climate impacts. Parts a) and b) should be conducted first, and the focus for these parts should be on global models, or components thereof. This is the subject of this audit. 4 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

1.4 Methodology Information for the audit was gathered using a questionnaire developed by the study team and road tested at the University of Reading and by NERC. The questionnaire was published on the NERC web site and used in two ways: stakeholders in the ESM community were encouraged to complete the questionnaire and it was also used as a basis for interviews with key players, including Met Office. Contributions to the national audit were invited from:  UK developers of ESM models and/or their components and couplers  UK science user of ESM models, developed in the UK or overseas  Non-UK science users of ESM models developed in the UK.  Responses were both from individuals and on behalf of groups developing or using a model. The main emphasis of the audit was on global scale Earth system models and their main components and couplers. As indicated above, the study does not include climate change impact models, local/regional models, weather forecasting, socio-economic models, catchment scale hydrological/flood models, Earth core/plate tectonics, the mesosphere and models for decision makers. All these are of interest to NERC, some have interfaces with the models that are being considered here, but they were not at the heart of this strategy and were therefore outside the scope of this particular exercise. The audit had two main purposes: to collect factual information about ESM in the UK and its international links and to give respondents an opportunity to express opinions regarding gaps, overlaps and future direction. The audit catalogues the details of the models, as developed or used in the UK; their capabilities scientifically, computation and data needs, development path and coupling strategy together with their provenance, funding, governance mechanisms and national (eg with Met Office) and international links. The survey also asked respondents to provide evidence of the quality of the models from published literature, eg evidence of testing against data and evidence of predictive capability. The audit also collected opinions from the community to understand their assessment where they perceive that ESM is heading in the UK and internationally, what the UK‟s and NERC‟s respective roles should be and hence the gaps in current ESM capability. The gaps included issues related to the models and their applications; skilled people and scientific leadership; infrastructure and technology including computing resources and data systems; and funding. The questionnaire and the written responses to the questionnaire are collated in a separate document (NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support - Catalogue of responses). As indicated above, the web based survey was augmented with interviews with key individuals in the community. Appendix A provides a list of all those who contributed to the audit, including those who completed questionnaires, were interviewed by the study team and provided written notes and comments by email or forwarded recent scientific papers. The results presented in this report are based on:  57 questionnaires, many completed on behalf of modelling programmes and groups:  ESM 19  Atmospheric dynamics 4  Atmospheric chemistry 10  Land 8  Physical ocean 6  Ocean biogeochemistry 3  Ice sheets 2  Sea ice 3  Solid Earth 1

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 Couplers 1  General issues 1  36 visits and telephone interviews (eg Met Office, NOCS, Cambridge, CPOM, Imperial, Graham Institute, Reading, OU, CEH, POL, UEA, PML, NOCS, QUEST, Bristol)  Liaison with Ben Bennett, NERC‟s HPC study and with Andrew Barkwith, BGS, DAEM study1  Discussions with NERC.

1 http://daem.wikidot.com/start 6 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

2. SCENE SETTING

2.1 NERC Strategy NERC‟s strategy, “Next Generation Science for Planet Earth”,was launched in November 2007, to guide NERC‟s strategic and scientific priorities during the period 2007-2012. NERC‟s strategic goal is to deliver world-leading environmental research at the frontiers of knowledge:  enabling society to respond urgently to global climate change and the increasing pressures on natural resources  contributing to UK leadership in predicting the regional and local impacts of environmental change from days to decades  creating and supporting vibrant, integrated research communities. The strategy is based around seven science themes:  Climate system: In the global context, in collaboration with the Met Office, development of risk-based predictions of the future state of the climate – on regional and local scales, spanning days to decades. The predictions will become the foundations on which society can build future mitigation and adaptation strategies.  Biodiversity: This theme is aimed at understanding the role of biodiversity in key ecosystem processes. Environmental change makes this research more pressing because it can lead to loss of biodiversity that plays a key role in the resilience of ecosystems.  Sustainable use of natural resources: This theme is aimed at helping society acquire better knowledge of how non-renewable (eg minerals, fossil fuels) and renewable resources can contribute to a sustainable economy whilst managing the use of resources within the Earth‟s environmental limits.  Earth system science: This theme looks at how the Earth works today, how components of the system have evolved over time in response to changes in other parts of the system and predicting what will happen in the future.  Natural hazards: This theme addresses NERC‟s central role to play in the science of forecasting and mitigating natural hazards in the geophysical environment, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, flooding, storms, tsunamis, coastal erosion and landslides.  Environment, pollution and human health: As the climate changes, so the behaviour of pollutants and pathogens and their movement and reactions within the environment change in different and complex ways. NERC science is providing new approaches to predicting the future behaviour of pathogens and pollutants and providing solutions to issues such as the spread of disease, drinking water contamination and air pollution.  Technologies: NERC developed and uses technology to observe and monitor the environment, provide sophisticated models of environmental processes to predict the future state of the environment and develop mitigation solutions such as carbon capture and storage. As well as the science themes, NERC strategy also covers knowledge, people, research facilities and equipment and partnerships. Driving innovation in environmental science, putting knowledge to work, supporting enterprising people to deliver world-class science, providing essential infrastructure and working in partnership are core components of NERC‟s strategy and underpin its work. In providing evidence to develop NERC‟s strategic needs for ESM, this study focuses on the needs of the science themes, particularly the climate system and Earth system science themes, but recognises opportunities to contribute to achieving these other strategic objectives. In particular

7 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 the audit highlights areas where work is carried out in partnership, particularly with Met Office and international partners. A change in the current strategy is the way research is funded. There are three types of NERC funding, each of which includes training:  National capability: National capability funding enables the UK to deliver environmental science, to support current and future national strategic needs and to respond to emergencies. It focuses on survey and monitoring, shared facilities and services, skills and expertise, research infrastructure and related knowledge exchange. Important additional features are that this capability is predominantly delivered by NERC research centres and collaborative centres and hence not available to the whole research community. It is mainly about long-term investment and is rarely subject to open competition.  Research programmes: Research programmes deliver strategically directed environmental research, training and related knowledge exchange. It is aimed at the science challenges and priorities identified by the NERC strategy. It has key features such as: time-limited, competitive and encouraging partnerships and collaboration. This funding is available to the entire research community.  Responsive mode: Responsive mode (often known as blue skies research) is unchanged. It supports original investigation and training in any area of science relevant to NERC‟s remit and strengthens the health of science disciplines, and helps set future scientific priorities. Hence the ESM strategy needs to consider both what needs to be funded to deliver NERC‟s strategy and also how, taking into account the definitions of the different funding streams. The current NERC strategy is a rolling, living strategy with built-in flexibility to move with changing scientific priorities. In the context of this activity on ESM, this audit makes comparisons with the NERC strategy at the time of writing. We did not try to second guess the results of the strategy refresh initiated by NERC at the same time.

2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling Depending on the nature of the questions asked and the pertinent timescales, a spectrum of models of varying complexity is used in modelling the Earth system. One of the challenges of this audit has been to provide a clear definition of what is in scope. including use of terms such as “climate model” and “Earth system model”. Referring to the mandate from Council (see Section 1.3), models of the physical climate system are traditionally referred to as “climate models” and those which also include significant elements of biological and chemical feedbacks on climate as “Earth system models”. Earth system models, by definition, seek to simulate all aspects - physical, chemical and biological - of the Earth system in and above the land surface and in the ocean. Thus, an ESM consists of, at least: 1. An atmospheric general circulation model, including a dynamical core for the fundamental fluid dynamics and water vapour, a radiation scheme, a scheme for predicting cloud amounts, a scheme for aerosols, and various parameterisation schemes for boundary layer transport, convection etc. 2. An oceanic general circulation model, including a dynamical core, various parameterisation schemes for boundary layers, convection, tracer transport etc. 3. An ice dynamics model, for the modelling and prediction of sea ice. 4. An atmospheric chemistry module, for predicting chemically active constituents such as ozone. 5. A land model, for land hydrology and surface type. 8 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

6. A land ice model. 7. Biogeochemistry modules for both land and ocean. These may be used, for example, to model the carbon cycle through the system. 8. A computational infrastructure to enable all these modules to communicate and work together efficiently. The goal of ESM development is to construct and appropriately integrate and combine the above physical and biogeochemical modules into a single, unified model. Perhaps confusingly, the main application of such models is for decadal to centennial, and possibly longer, studies of climate change and variability. The possibility of fully coupled ESMs is relatively recent. The term “climate model” generally refers to coupled physical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice components, with relatively simple representations of the land surface. In general, improvements in understanding and increases in computer power have resulted in an increasing number of components represented in climate/Earth system models. The evolution of Hadley Centre models (see Section 3) is shown for illustrative purposes below.

Development of the Hadley Centre

Models HadCM3 HadGEM1 HadGEM2 1975 1985 1992 1997 2004 2009

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface

Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate aerosol aerosol aerosol Non-sulphate Non-sulphate aerosol aerosol Carbon cycle

Atmospheric chemistry

Ocean & sea-ice Sulphur Non-sulphate Off-line model cycle model aerosols

model Land carbon cycle model Carbon development cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Strengthening colours denote improvements Atmospheric Atmospheric in models chemistry chemistry © Crown copyright Met Office Figure 1: Evolution of Hadley Centre models Depending on the particular science question, increasing complexity is not always the overriding consideration. So for example, with respect “to predictions of the future state of the climate – on regional and local scales, spanning days to decades”3 development of very high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean models is the main requirement and biological feedbacks are less important. Studies of paleoclimatology, characterised by very long climate (multi-millennial) runs or very large ensemble runs to study aspects of climate variability or models which include socio-economic components in a interactive way, require other trade-offs. A range of models known collectively as EMICs (Earth system models of intermediate complexity) are under development. These models include most of the processes described in comprehensive models albeit in reduced, ie more parameterised form.

3 NERC climate theme 9 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

The discussion above illustrates that one size does not fit all. Modellers and users of next generation prediction systems will make complex trade-offs between complexity, resolution, duration of runs/ensemble size, depending on the precise question being addressed, our understanding of the Earth system and the computer power available. The wide number of variations is likely to create challenges in terms of IT support and version control.

Complex trade-offs New Science Better Science (new processes/interactions (parameterization → explicit model) not previously included)

Spatial Finite computer Timescale Resolution resource (simulate finer details, (Length of simulations regions & transients) * time step)

Ensemble size Data Assimilation (quantify statistical properties of simulation) (decadal prediction/ initial value forecasts)

Lawrence Buja (NCAR) / Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

Figure 2: Complex trade-offs for next generation models

2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC Summarising the information gathered during the audit, NERC funds four broad categories of model development and use:  development of full Earth system models including biological feedbacks for climate prediction to 2100 (eg QESM),  development of very high resolution models for seasonal to decadal forecasting and predictions (eg HiGEM, NUGEM);  development and use of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) primarily for very long timescale and very large ensemble runs (eg GENIE, FAMOUS);  development and use models for understanding underlying processes within components of the Earth system (eg UKCA, NEMO, JULES, CICE) and coupling to and carrying out experiments with existing climate models (eg HadCM3).

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Seasonal to decadal forecasts Very high resolution

coupled ocean/atmosphere

CISM - Eg HIGEM, NUGEM, HADGEM3-H Climate to 2100

, GLIMMER Increasingly fully coupled ESMs with

biogeochemical feedbacks

CICE

, , NEMO Eg QESM, HADGEM3-ES

, JULES, Very long timescale scales, large ensembles and novel applications

Earth system models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)

GLOMAP , ,

Eg GENIE (multi-millennial), FAMOUS (millennial)

UKCA

variety of scientific experiments

Coupling,testing, using existing models in a wide

Eg Eg

Understanding of underlying processes underlying of Understanding Development of Development component models eg Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Ice

Figure 3: Broad classes of ESM modelling activities of interest to NERC Fully coupled Earth system models: Full Earth system models investigate the interactions and processes that are important for climate on decadal timescales, including the role and feedbacks of the biotic environment which become important factors on a timescale of decades. As indicated above, these models are of high complexity and medium resolution built, for example, to include: coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models, chemistry/aerosol models, land surface models, vegetation dynamics models, soil carbon/nitrogen model; emissions from biomass burning and fire- induced vegetation mortality, crop models, ocean biogeochemistry models. Earth system models are generally run at a coarser resolution than their “climate” model counterparts, trading resolution for complexity on top of the range supercomputers. Very high resolution models: The overarching science driver for the development of very high resolution climate models is to explore questions about how increased resolution may improve climate prediction, particularly for predictions at the seasonal to decadal timescales at regional scales and for high-impact weather. Improving such predictions is essential for informing strategies for adaptation to climate change, as it is through changes in regional climate and high-impact weather that the effects of climate change will be primarily felt. Although regional climate models can downscale global results to smaller scales, they are ultimately constrained by the boundary forcing from global models. Reducing the biases in global climate models, for example by increasing resolution, is critical for providing more trustworthy predictions of regional climate. The main emphasis is on very high resolution coupled ocean/atmosphere models. The models rely on very high performance supercomputers. EMICs: Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are lower resolution and/or lower complexity models than the previous two categories. They have been used to address four generic classes of problems:  Long timescale (1 kyr to 1 Myr) problems in both past and future climate, such as long-term response to and subsequent recovery from global warming, and topical paleoclimate problems including hyperthermals (eg Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum).  Ensemble experiments to explore fully parameter space and to obtain well constrained uncertainty estimates; eg plausible ranges of diagnostics of climate sensitivity (Holden et al., in press).

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 Hypothesis testing in a computationally inexpensive but reasonably realistic context. eg the competing roles of ocean mixing in determining the structure of the global meridional overturning circulation (MOC); Oliver and Edwards (2008).  Cross-disciplinary research that depends on a combination of modules (eg involving new data sources or socio-economic models), requiring flexibility and responsive approaches to problem-solving. The computer requirements are modest per model year in comparison with very high resolution climate models or full Earth system models (although can still be quite demanding overall for very long models runs or large ensembles). Typical usage can be accommodated by high-end desktop PCs or clusters. Models for understanding processes: Much of NERC‟s Earth system modelling activity is devoted to improved understanding and representation of individual components of the Earth system, as well as important cycles (eg water, carbon, nitrogen). The work involves a combination of developing models of the components of the Earth system and carrying out experiments with existing climate models.

2.4 Structure of the report In view of the close relationship between NERC and Met Office in the areas of climate and Earth system modelling, Section 3 provides an overview of model development in the UK from a Met Office perspective. Section 4 provides a summary of climate and Earth systems models being developed and used in NERC funded research. Sections 5 to 12 examine models of individual components of the Earth system. Section 13 provides an international comparison. Section 14 summarises a number of generic key issues which emerged during the audit. Appendix A provides a complete list of contributors to the audit. Appendices B and C provide summary information in relation to the NERC strategy and funding streams. Appendix B provides a table correlating NERC‟s Theme Challenges with the models discussed in Sections 4-12. Appendix C, based mainly on information from NERC, provides a table of current funding sources/types for the models. Appendix D provides some typical computer requirements for the models discussed in this report. Appendix E lists model and other acronyms used in the report.

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3. CLIMATE AND EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING AT MET OFFICE /HADLEY CENTRE

3.1 Introduction Historically the lead organisation in the UK for developing and using models for climate predictions has been Met Office/Hadley Centre. This section summarises development, mainly from a MOHC perspective and shows the growing interaction between MOHC and NERC. The growing partnership has recently resulted in the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme to:  ensure that the UK has access to internationally competitive tools for forecasting climate and its impacts;  enable closer collaboration between NERC and the Met Office by working to eliminate existing barriers;  develop new activities to address critical gaps in existing national portfolio of climate research;  develop mechanisms to promote a more effective pull through of research results into improved climate forecasts.

3.2 A MOHC perspective Traditionally climate model development has been carried out in-house by MOHC, using the Unified Model. The UM has been designed to allow different configurations of the same model to be used to produce all weather forecasts and climate predictions. As shown in Figure 1, the system for modelling climate has been in continual development since the late 1980s, taking advantage of steadily increasing supercomputer power, improved understanding of atmospheric processes, and an increasing range of observational data sources. The UM is capable of modelling a wide range of time and space scales including kilometre-scale mesoscale nowcasts, limited-area weather forecasts, global weather forecasts (including the stratosphere), seasonal forecasts, global and regional climate predictions as well as being run as part of an ensemble prediction system. The atmospheric core of the UM can be coupled to other models which represent different aspects of the Earth's environment that influence the weather and climate, such as the ocean and ocean waves, sea-ice, land surface, atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle. This allows the UM to be used for Earth system modelling. The UM is run in many different configurations at the Met Office, for example:  a high-resolution model over the UK, to help predict the weather a few hours ahead  a model over the North Atlantic and Europe to predict the weather one to two days ahead, run as part of a short-range limited area ensemble  a global model to predict the weather several days ahead, run as part of a medium-range global ensemble  a seasonal forecasting model which includes a coupled ocean model to predict the likely trends over the coming six months  a decadal prediction system  a regional climate model  a global climate model to predict up to a century ahead. One of the benefits often cited for this unified approach is that the model is continuously tested in an operational environment. In terms of modelling for climate prediction much of the work at MOHC has been geared towards IPCC deadlines. A key driver is providing timely outputs in response to the coordinated set of climate model experiments –so called Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) - which are

13 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 used to inform the IPCC process. Traditionally, there has been no collaborative work with NERC on the “operational” critical path towards fulfilling IPCC commitments. However over time there has been an increasing collaboration with NERC on model development. So, for example, with HadCM3 atmospheric, physical ocean and sea ice components were developed in house and Met Office paid NOCS to develop the ocean biogeochemistry. Increasingly with the transition from climate models to full Earth system models the Met Office has realised the benefits of increased collaboration with NERC. Many of the skills needed are found predominantly in the NERC community. HadCM3 was considered the best model in the world in its day (see Section International Comparison 13) and is still widely used, including by the NERC community (see Section 4.3). The next MOHC model was HadGEM1, built around a new non-hydrostatic, semi-Lagrangian atmospheric dynamical core, developed in-house. The model incorporated higher resolution than the HadCM3; and contained several other improvements in its formulation including for example interactive atmospheric aerosols. The model had some known errors such as excessive drying of the summer continents, poor Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and a weak El Nino but was still considered one of the world‟s leading models. Strategically it was also an important step towards the goal of seamless predictions from local to global scale and from days to centuries. A step change in the partnership between MOHC and NERC occurred when NERC started work on HiGEM in parallel with Met Office‟s development of HadGEM1. HiGEM is a very high resolution version of HadGEM1. Both model the same physical processes but have different parameterisations and computing environments. It was acknowledged during discussions at the Met Office that, through the development of HiGEM, NERC has had considerable influence on Met Office strategy, in particular development of high resolution models for decadal/regional prediction. HiGEM is contributing to CMIP5 experiments for IPCC AR5. This is the first time that NERC has contributed in this way. HadGEM2-ES is the current operational model at the Met Office for IPCC AR5. HadGEM2-ES includes improved carbon cycle, land, sea ice, aerosol representations. The main developments were both in house and under contract to NERC. NERC has played a key role in the development of a number of elements in HadGEM2-ES such as JULES (land) and UKCA (atmospheric chemistry and aerosols), showing the growing synergy between MOHC and NERC.

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The climate system – HadGEM1

Online CLIMATE Offline

Direct and Indirect Effects Greenhouse Effect

Human Emissions AEROSOLS GHG’s

CH4, O3, Oxidants: N2O, CFC OH, H O Human 2 2 CO2 HO2,O3 Emissions

Human Emissions CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS

Land-use Change

© Crown copyright Met Office The climate system – HadGEM2

Online CLIMATE Offline

Direct and Indirect Effects Greenhouse Effect

Human Emissions AEROSOLS GHG’s

Fe deposition

CH4, O3, Oxidants: DMS, OH, H O Human 2 2 Mineral dust CO2 HO2,O3 Emissions

Human Emissions CHEMISTRY Wetland emissions:CH4 ECOSYSTEMS Dry deposition: stomatal conductance

Land-use Change

© Crown copyright Met Office

Figure 4: Increasing complexity from HadGEM1 to HadGEM2 Met Office recognised that it needed more flexibility and therefore wanted to enhance the cycle of development imposed by IPCC. In particular, with the increasing emphasis on the development of climate services, model development timescales (particularly for HadGEM3) are being driven by timescales other than those associated with IPCC, for example the desire for continuous improvement of seasonal to decadal forecast systems. Hence at the same time (in parallel) as IPCC runs on HadGEM2-ES work is starting on HadGEM3. HadGEM3 is being developed as part of a new collaborative approach and was described by Met Office during this study as a UK Community Model. The atmospheric component will be an upgraded version of HadGEM2 with physics from the Met Office; chemistry and aerosols will be UKCA; land – JULES, physical ocean – NEMO (a strategic decision to use a European model). Ocean biogeochemistry is still to be decided as there is no consensus in the UK community. With respect to sea ice modelling there was no UK-wide strategic decision to use CICE (Los Alamos model)– but POL, UCL and Met Office have all chosen to use CICE.

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A key issue for NERC and Met Office is: how should interactions between the two organisations be managed, particularly as HadGEM3 will have a wide range of configurations addressing different questions regarding the Earth system. Figure 5 provides an overview the Met Office vision for seamless modelling. The development of the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP) and providing access to supercomputer resources outside Met Office firewall are a start – the collaborative zone (MONSooN) will significantly simplify joint working.

Ultra- high resolution Understanding regional • Limited Area processes • Atmosphere NWP (to 16km by 2011, L70)

Seasonal/Decadal Monthly to Decadal • Global Coupled Climate (~60km, L85) Forecasting • Multidecades on joint supercomputer

Centennial/Ensembles Projections to 2100 • Global climate (~100-150km, L63)

• Multicentury runs/ S2D ensembles Resolution

Earth System Long timescale feedbacks • Global Climate (~150km,L63)

• Multicentury ensembles, rapid response & ensembles & Complexity Complexity Simple models • Energy Balance Models Exploring scenarios • Statistical sampling

© Crown copyright Met Office Figure 5: The Met Office vision of seamless modelling (adapted from UK activity towards CMIP5, Catherine Senior, Met Office, Presentation to WGCM, San Francisco, September 29th, 2009)

The evolution of Met Office/Hadley Centre models and key links to NERC are summarised below. The diagram shows much common ground and mutually supporting activity, particularly in the areas of very high resolution models for seasonal to decadal forecasts and development of full Earth system models. In addition the Met Office‟s HadCM3 model has become a “workhorse” model in the NERC community. Many groups and scientific developments are underpinned through access to HadCM3. The area where collaboration with the Met Office weak is paleoclimatology and the development and use of EMICs. The synergies between NERC and Met Office are explored in future detail in the following sections of this report.

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Main international Met Office Model/ Related NERC activities links internal projects HadCM3 IPCC Third Assessment Report HadCM3 widely used under license: NCAS, (MOHC atmospheric model HadAM3 (2001) BAS, NOCS, etc. and the ocean model which IPCC Assessment Report 4 Projects and models include: includes a sea ice model) ((2007) •BRIDGE •Climateprediction.net •CHIME ocean modeling •FAMOUS, paleoclimate •HADCM3-STOCHEM, UKCP09 (UKscenarios) atmospheric modeling DePreSys (Decadal prediction) •Coupled to BASISM, GLIMMER-CISM, ice sheet

IPCC Assessment Report 4 HadGEM1 (2007) (“New dynamics” atmosphere – HiGEM and NUGEM (UKJCC) non-hydrostatic, semi-Lagrangian) UK-Japan Climate Now combined as combined as NERC Collaboration (NCAS, Met High Resolution Climate Modelling Office, JAMSTEC, on going) (HRCM programme)

IPCC Assessment Report 5 HadGEM2 – ES (2013) (More “Earth system” components, inc UKCA NCAS: UKCA JULES) QESM: JULES

HadGEM3 –A, -AO International climate services IPCC Assessment Report 6 -H, -ES etc QUEST: QESM for HadGEM3-ES, JULES, (Ocean and sea ice replaced by PlankTOM NEMO, CICE) Oceans2025: NEMO NCAS: HRCM for HadGEM3-H and UKJCC NCAS: UKCA JCRP

Figure 6: Evolution of Met Office/Hadley Centre models and main links to NERC activities and international programmes

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4. CLIMATE AND EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

4.1 Introduction This section summarises the main activities in coupled climate and Earth system models. Section 4.2 relates primarily to the development and use of the current and near future generations of the HadGEM family of models. The Section 4.3 relates to use of HadCM3 and derived models, including novel implementations such as climateprediction.net. Finally Section 4.4 considers GENIE.

4.2 HadGEM

4.2.1 High Resolution Climate Modelling Programme: HiGEM, NUGEM, HadGEM3-H Three main models come under the purview of the HRCM programme:  HiGEM and HiGAM (High resolution global environment model)  NUGAM and NUGEM (Nippon-UK global environment model)  HadGEM3-H (Higher resolution version of HadGEM3, the next generation Met Office coupled climate model, in development). HiGEM, NUGEM and HadGEM3-H are fully global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate models. HiGAM and NUGAM are global atmosphere-only models. HiGEM and NUGEM are based on HadGEM1, the climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model used in the Fourth IPCC assessment report. The horizontal resolution of the atmosphere in HiGEM and HiGAM has been increased to N144 (~90km). The horizontal resolution of the atmosphere in NUGAM and NUGEM is N216 (~60km). The ocean in HiGEM and NUGEM is a Bryan-Cox type model integrated at eddy-permitting resolutions (1/3ox1/3o). This means HiGEM is the only coupled climate model to not use Gent- McWilliams mixing to parameterise ocean eddies. HiGEM and NUGEM have a very similar atmospheric formulation as HadGEM1. Thus they are based on a non-hydrostatic, semi- Lagrangian dynamical core, with complex state-of-the-art parameterisations of radiation, convection, the atmospheric boundary layer, cloud physics, the land surface and an interactive aerosol scheme. HadGEM3-H is a high resolution version of HadGEM3, the next climate model being developed at the Met Office. The atmosphere in HadGEM3 will be an improved version of that used in HadGEM1, while the ocean model is based on the French NEMO ocean model. The resolution of HadGEM3-H will be N216 in the atmosphere and roughly 0.25o in the ocean. Additionally, HadGEM3-H has an increased vertical resolution, with 63 levels in the vertical for the tropospheric version (instead of 38) and 85 levels for the version reaching into the stratosphere.

Status NERC National Capability funding from centres (NCAS, NCEO), Research Programmes (JWCRP, ESM interim funding) and Responsive Mode projects (eg VOCALS-UK, QCCCE- Walker,. Also a joint NCAS/Willis Research Network project. Long term funding not secure Proximity to UM and HiGEM, NUGEM and HadGEM3-H are all configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, with Met Office HiGEM and NUGEM being high resolution versions of HadGEM1, and HadGEM3-H being a high resolution version of HadGEM3. The development of HiGEM and NUGAM also had a substantial impact on the climate model development strategy at the Met Office. The success of projects such as HRCM played a key role in facilitating the establishment of the JWCRP with Met Office. The development of HadGEM3-H, which will feed into the seasonal to decadal forecasting activities at the Met Office. Visibility NUGEM was developed as part of the UK Japan Climate Collaboration (UJCC), a collaboration internationally with Japanese scientists based at the Earth Simulator in Yokohama. The HRCM programme has committed to deliver decadal predictions using HiGEM for the next

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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which will directly inform the next IPCC assessment report on Climate Change (AR5). Links to NERC Support‟s NERC‟s goal to “contribute to UK leadership in predicting the regional and local strategy impacts of environmental change from days to decades. Governance HiGEM and NUGEM are jointly “owned” by the HiGEM consortium and UJCC. There are no restrictions to NERC users and they are regularly run on HECToR by users from NCAS, UoR, UEA, NOCS, and the Met Office. New users are advised to discuss their plans with the HRCM core team. The models are readily available on the NERC PUMA umui service. HadGEM3-H is currently in development, and as such is not yet available to the wider community. Presently the model is being actively developed through the JWCRP by the Met Office, NCAS and NOCS. Model results (and the model itself) will be released after extensive evaluation and testing.

4.2.2 QESM The QUEST Earth System Model (QESM) is a next-generation earth system model designed to simulate the interactions between different earth system processes and their relevance to climate over timescales of decades. It is a model of high complexity and medium resolution. It is being built from state-of-the-art components: the HadGEM3-AO coupled ocean/atmosphere climate model; the UKCA chemistry/aerosol model; the JULES land surface model; the ED vegetation dynamics model, the ECOSSE soil carbon/nitrogen model; the SPITFIRE model for emissions from biomass burning and fire-induced vegetation mortality; a crop simulation model; the PlankTOM10 ocean biogeochemistry model. QESM is run at a coarser resolution than its climate model counterpart HadGEM3-AO. The model will be used to investigate which Earth system interactions and processes are important for climate on decadal timescales, including the role of the biotic environment.

Status Development of the model has been funded by Research Programme funding through the QUEST programme, and until 03/11 by NERC ESM Interim funding. No long term funding secured. Proximity to UM and It is likely that QESM will provide the basis for HadGEM3-ES, the next Earth system model of Met Office the Hadley Centre. QESM is therefore a potential project for the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme. Visibility The model is under development, but it is expected that a fully functioning QESM would have a internationally significant international profile. The developers are unaware of any Earth system modelling efforts of equivalent complexity and comprehensiveness either in the UK or abroad. Links to NERC Addresses issues of chemistry and biology in climate change, and investigating key processes strategy determining the sensitivity of the climate system. Especially useful in answering those challenges that lie across both the climate and Earth system areas. Governance Because the model is still under development, it is not currently readily available for NERC researchers. Once tested and tuned the model will be made available to scientists.

4.2.3 Vertically extended HadGEM models The HadGEM group of models has been extended by the NCAS Climate Group in Reading to include a better representation of the stratosphere and mesosphere., as follows: model lid extended from 39km to 84km; number of model levels increased from 38 to 60; number of levels above 16km increased from 10 to 32; model levels below 16km are identical. Additional modifications have been made to include radiative processes in the middle atmosphere and to improve the representation of small-scale (gravity) wave effects. The model forms the dynamical/radiative model formulation into which the UKCA project has added interactive chemistry and aerosols.

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To date, the model has been used primarily in atmosphere-only mode (HadGAM) with imposed SSTs and non-interactive ozone. Work is underway (joint Hadley Centre - NCAS-climate collaboration) to couple it to the full ocean model and utilise for IPCC AR5 simulations. Work is also proceeding on characterisation of the next version of the fully coupled atmosphere- ocean model (HadGEM3) which extend to approx the same height but with 85 levels.

Status Met Office has adopted the 85-level version as their main tool for the future. On-going funding needed for further development once fully incorporated into the HadGEM suite. NERC National Capability/Research Programme funding through NCAS Proximity to UM and Part of NERC/Met Office collaboration on HadGEM development Met Office Visibility Simulations from the model will be submitted to the next IPCC AR5 assessment. internationally Output from the full-chemistry (UKCA) version has been submitted to a major model inter- comparison project run by the WCRP SPARC. Links to NERC There is growing evidence that the stratosphere influences weather and climate processes at strategy the surface, on both seasonal and decadal timescales. Addresses “Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system” and “Natural variability and the link with climate change”. Governance Part of NERC/Met Office collaboration on HadGEM development

4.2.4 Use of HadGEM models The HadGEM family is used for a wide range of studies, including climate change, climate variability, seasonal to decadal prediction and process studies. The model is also used to provide lateral boundary conditions for regional climate models. For example, within the NCAS-Climate Tropical Group the model is used for research on the weather and climate of the tropics, including, the mean state, modes of climate variability (including the impact of climate change) from subseasonal to decadal timescales, climate processes studies, and monthly to seasonal prediction research (not operationally). Within NCAS the model is supported by the NCAS-CMS group, who maintain, port and optimise the code for use on National HPC platforms. The group provides access to models and support many model configurations, creates tools to exploit model output and prepare model input. The group trains and helps and assists over 200 UM users in the UK.

4.3 HadCM3 and related models

4.3.1 CHIME CHIME is one of a number of model developments which use the legacy HadCM3 MOHC model as its underlying climate model. CHIME is a coupled climate model. Its atmosphere and ice models are identical to those of the UK Met Office / Hadley Centre‟s HadCM3, but the depth-coordinate ocean model in HadCM3 is replaced in CHIME by the Hybrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), which has layers of constant potential density in the interior and constant-depth layers near the surface. Density-coordinate (“isopycnic”) ocean models have the potential to improve the representation and preservation of water masses over that in conventional depth-coordinate models. For instance, the dense overflows into the North Atlantic from the Arctic are much more realistically represented in isopycnic models, where in depth-coordinate models there is a tendency for excessive mixing of the overflows with ambient waters, resulting in warming of deep waters and progressive changes in circulation. The horizontal and overturning circulation of the North Atlantic is recognised to be strongly linked to the climate of Northern Europe. Drifts in ocean circulation and water mass properties on decadal and centennial time scales are known to occur in HadCM3, and comparison with CHIME has

20 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 shown these to be largely associated with vertical mixing in the ocean model. By replacing the ocean in HadCM3 with one designed to eliminate spurious vertical mixing, the CHIME project is examining the effects of these drifts on climate, including the stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation under climate change.

Status Funded by NERC until 2012 as part of Oceans 2025 and RAPID WATCH (mainly Research Programme funding). Currently a small developer/user community (<10 persons) Proximity to UM and Uses legacy model HadCM3 (UM4.5 is maintained on HECToR by NCAS-CMS, and is further Met Office available from the Met Office on application, although independent installation is not trivial. The only restrictions on use or development are those inherited from the Met Office UM4.5 licence or from the computing platform it is run on.) The HYCOM model is a multi-institutional effort sponsored by the National Ocean Partnership Program in the USA, as part of the U. S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment. Visibility CHIME is currently run only within NOCS, but will be ported to the climateprediction.net platform internationally within the next two or three years under the NERC RAPIT project, which will involve collaboration with Oxford University. Links to NERC CHIME links to the themes on: Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system; strategy Natural variability and the link with climate change; The changing water cycle; and The role of the polar regions in the global climate system. In addition, analysis of the model output being carried out under the UK THCMIP project links to results from the 24°N RAPID array, and therefore with observations to enable climate change detection and prediction. Governance CHIME is in principle readily available, but depends on the installation of the Met Office‟s Unified Model (see above).

4.3.2 FAMOUS FAMOUS is another HadCM3 derivative. It is a fast, moderate complexity, low resolution coupled Earth system model derived from HadCM3. It uses the HadAM3, HadOM3, HadOCC, MOSES(1 or 2.2) and TRIFFID components of HadCM3 to simulate the physical evolution of the atmosphere and ocean, with basic ocean biogeochemistry and vegetation providing a simple, closed carbon cycle. FAMOUS can also be run coupled to Glimmer, allowing the evolution of grounded ice- sheets to be included. With run-times around 100 model years per wallclock day using 8 HPC processors, FAMOUS is intended for use in millennial-scale transient climate simulations or large ensembles for which higher resolution coupled GCMs are too expensive. Its similarities (in terms of both the code and the climate simulation) to HadCM3 make it part of the MOHC hierarchy of models.

Status Small amounts of Research Programme funding from NCAS, QUEST and NERC ESM Interim Funding. Proximity to UM FAMOUS is usable by anyone with access to version 4.5 of the Unified Model. UM4.5 is maintained and Met Office on UK National supercomputing resources by NCAS-CMS, and is further available from the Met Office on application, although independent installation is not trivial. The only restrictions on use or development are those inherited from the Met Office UM4.5 licence or from the computing platform it is run on. Visibility Not yet used internationally, although interest UCL (Belgium) and Stanford (USA). Use through internationally climateprediction.net will increase visibility. Links to NERC FAMOUS addresses a number of the NERC Earth System Theme challenges, with relevance to strategy those in the Climate System section as well. The model components include biogeochemical cycling and allow representation of the interaction of terrestrial, ocean and cryospheric processes, allowing atmospheric CO2 to be modelled. The longer timescales that FAMOUS can simulate, along with the coupling to Glimmer, make it unique amongst GCMs in modelling certain key processes that determine the sensitivity to climate change. These timescales also mean that FAMOUS is ideally suited to simulating paleoclimates, which is key to interpreting past environmental records. Governance FAMOUS is a joint development of the Hadley Centre, NCAS-Climate, NCAS-CMS, Bristol University and the NERC QUEST and RAPID programmes. It is usable by anyone with access to version 4.5 of the Unified Model (see above).

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4.3.3 HadAM3 – enabled with water isotopes HadAM3 (the atmospheric part of HadCM3) has been enabled with water isotopes by University of Bristol for comparison with and interpretation of ice core datasets (work at BAS); particularly understanding of differences between last glacial, previous interglacials and pre-industrial times.

Status Isotope enabling was funded by NERC RAPID (Research Programme funding). Paleoclimate community considers that water isotopes need to be adopted and included as standard in HadGEM 2 or 3 and QESM. Could be implemented in Responsive Mode funding but needs to be adopted by a modelling centre for maintenance Proximity to UM and Hadley Centre does not include water isotopes as standard in the UM. Met Office Visibility Not applicable internationally Links to NERC Direct link to ES theme (past environments, ice sheet response (need to know the climate the strategy ice sheets have responded to), biogeochemical cycling; and Climate theme (hydrological cycle) Governance See above

4.3.4 Climateprediction.net Climateprediction.net is a distributed computing project to produce predictions of the Earth's climate up to 2080 and to test the accuracy of climate models using volunteer computing. A wide variety of experiments have been conducted to date, generating large ensembles, mainly based on elements of HadCM3 including:  Thermohaline experiment: A study of the possible effects of a prescribed slowdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.  Sulphur cycle experiment: To identify the effects of sulphate aerosol on the global climate system and the sensitivity of the model to perturbing sulphur cycle parameters. More information is available here.  Mid-holocene experiment: To look at the response of models to past climates.  Geoengineering experiment: An estimate of the possible effects of climate change mitigation strategies.  Millennium experiment: To refine the accuracy of climate models of the last millennium, including the “medieval warm period” and the “little ice age.” (This is an EU FP6 project so funded by more than NERC.  Validation and attribution experiment  Seasonal Attribution Experiment: An investigation of the possible impact of human activity on extreme weather risk. The project received high profile endorsement through the BBC and the results of the BBC Climate Experiment are being submitted as part of IPCC AR5.

Status Main development under NERC e-science Research Programme. Currently competing for funds. Proximity to UM Model components are based on HadCM3 and Met Office Visibility At present the programme has ~50,000 active hosts worldwide. internationally Links to NERC Relevant to both Climate, Earth system science and Natural hazards themes. strategy Governance Those wishing to take part sign a licensing agreement. Results are available through a data portal. 22 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

4.3.5 Use of HadCM3 In addition to the new variants described above, a number of groups use HadCM3 for scientific investigations. Submissions to the audit included BAS (to understand the Antarctic atmospheric climate; including its dynamical and physical processes, and present and future climate change); Edinburgh (detection and attribution of climate change; understanding of causes of climate change; ways to test climate/Earth System models; understanding of uncertainty), Bristol BRIDGE group (climate modelling including paleo applications), Leeds (stratospheric chemistry). HadCM3 is also still actively used by the MOHC, for example it forms the basis of the recently published UKCP09 scenarios.

4.4 GENIE GENIE is a framework for intermediate complexity Earth system modelling (EMICs), allowing user- specified coupling of its components, including: 3-D ocean; standard sea-ice schemes (including Elastic-Viscous-Plastic dynamics); two versions of atmosphere (2-D energy-moisture balance and intermediate GCM); ocean biogeochemistry and sediments; two versions of dynamic land scheme (both representing hydrological and carbon cycles, one with multiple vegetation types), ice sheets (GLIMMER); lithospheric weathering. The GENIE framework bridges the gap between geochemical box models, which are useful for testing ideas but lacking in their ability to make quantitative predictions, and high-complexity fully coupled models, which allow detailed, short-timescale predictions but are limited in their ability to explore and explain hypotheses and to quantify uncertainty. Because of GENIE‟s flexibility and computational speed, it can be applied to a number of generic classes of problems:  The principal focus of GENIE is on fast, but reasonably realistic simulation of long- timescale processes (1 kyr to 1 Myr). Long-timescale Earth system problems demand the inclusion of carbon cycle processes that most other models cannot address (e.g. geochemical interactions with deep-sea sediments, weathering). The GLIMMER ice sheet model (see Section 10.2) was initially developed through the GENIE programme.  Quantification of uncertainty in past and future climate requiring large (1000+ runs) ensembles, as well as quantification of structural uncertainty in how models are constructed.  Interdisciplinary studies (e.g. involving new data sources or socio-economic models), requiring flexibility and responsive approaches to problem-solving.  It is the appropriate tool as the first test for hypotheses. The physics components of GENIE run at ~1,000 years/hour on a single processor.  Potential as a teaching and learning tool at secondary school and university level. GENIE is adaptable to a wide range of compilers and runs quickly on a single processor, for a wide range of platforms. An interactive graphical user interface, originally developed for teaching, allows menu-driven simulation by non-expert users on their own PC with real-time graphics. In terms of complexity, its relatively simple physics are compensated by the wide range of long-timescale Earth system components, choice of modules and Grid-based framework software environment, resulting in a relatively large, complex and spatially distributed model core. The GENIE framework involves a versioning and testing environment, verification of code integrity, and a set of Grid- based tools for simulation and data archiving.

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Status Main development under NERC e-Science Research Programme. Current funding through NERC Research Programme ESM interim funding to 3/11. Proximity to UM Model components are complementary to UM family, eg Goldstein ocean, IGCM atmosphere and Met Office Visibility Non-UK users: Penn. State (USA) – focus: mass extinctions and past greenhouse transients; internationally Hargreaves / Annan (Japan) – focus: climate forecast uncertainty; Utrecht (Netherlands): past greenhouse transients Links to NERC Relevant to both Climate and Earth system science themes. strategy Governance The vast majority of the code is freely available, pending planned open-source release. A principal repository is hosted in Bristol. Development is the concern of the core team of original model code authors and developers. GENIE source code is managed using Subversion. Wiki pages provide an introduction to GENIE. A series of routine tests are in place to ensure that code updates do not introduce bugs.

4.5 Other climate and Earth system models used in UK Other (non-UK) climate and Earth system models used in the UK and reported during the audit include:  NCAR models: Chemistry components of NCAR‟s Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and NCAR‟s Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are used by NCAS (see Section 6). The UK ice sheet model Glimmer-CISM has now be accepted as a component of CCSM (see Section 10).  BAS reports using the MITgcm for investigating Southern Ocean Dynamics.  With respect to EMICs, FRUGAL (Fine Resolution Greenland and Labrador sea intermediate complexity model) has a small developer/user community (mainly Sheffield) and has been supported through individual NERC grants. It has no funding at present. This is a coupled climate model where the ocean is based on the US MOM and the atmosphere on the Canadian UViC model‟s one layer atmosphere component. Sea-ice is represented by a thermodynamic and simple advective scheme. The model can include coupled iceberg release, drift and melting. It can also include oxygen isotopes in the ocean. The iceberg component is nearly unique and could be developed as a component for other models. Sections 5 to 11 discuss numerous component models which have non-UK origins. For example the HadGEM3 family includes NEMO (French origin) and CICE (US origin); CHIME includes HYCOM (US origin).

4.6 Key issues In summary NERC funding:  Has played a major role in the development of very high resolution models (HiGEM, NUGEM) for seasonal to decadal forecasting and may be expected to play a continued role in the development of HadGEM3-H.  Through the QUEST programme has developed, a sophisticated fully coupled ESM, QESM, although further work is needed to integrate, test, release and use the model and feed into the development of HadGEM3-ES. Some of this is already funded by the ESM interim funding.  Is contributing to other developments of HadGEM3 family, eg by extending the model vertically and carrying out research into tropical weather and climate.  Is continuing to support the use and development of HadCM3, including variants for developing ocean component models (CHIME), for paleoclimate applications (FAMOUS) and for a novel volunteer computing programme (Climateprediction.net).  Developed the GENIE EMIC. 24 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

The main issues for the strategy which have been raised be those responding to the audit are:  Collaboration with Met Office and/or internationally: Most respondents welcomed the closer link to the Met Office and acknowledged that the UK needs its own world class modelling framework if it to contribute to international assessments such as IPCC and provide UK government with advice. There was some concern about the longer term: o Will the UK be able to commit enough resources to keep the UM as a world class model (cf strategic decision to adopt the French NEMO model as the ocean component)? o Conflicting needs of operational use by the Met Office and research use by the academic community can lead to some problems in choices of development route (see comments on paleoclimate below). o Would collaboration be easier with international partners who adopt a community based approach (easier access, better and cheaper support infrastructure, greater responsiveness, larger user base)?;  Step beyond: Some respondents thought that NERC should be undertaking more high risk/high reward work – particularly to lay out options for “next but one generation” models (cf ICOM in Section 8.3) through a well structured Research Programme.  Funding and skills: Developing climate models is a long-term and highly skilled activity. If NERC and the wider climate community wish to maintain, and even strengthen, their international standing in climate modelling, continuity of funding is needed for the core science and development of climate models, particularly to prevent a loss of key staff and skills.  Next generation computing and a new dynamical core: High resolution climate models, in particular, push the boundaries of capability computing, both in terms of raw CPU usage and data volumes produced. Essential to the development of higher resolution climate models is the need to develop models that can scale onto tens of thousands of cores, rather than the hundreds of cores, at present. This may require adopting novel computational methods and grids into our present climate modelling frameworks. A new dynamical core is required for multiple reasons going from scalability, to accuracy, to conservation. It is important to be able to explore the impact of using alternative grid geometries through an infrastructure that separates the model from the underlying technology (this addresses also the ever-changing nature of supercomputers). The US project HOMME (led by NCAR and IBM) has achieved this goal. NCAR is now porting all CCSM physics onto HOMME dynamical cores. Equally there needs to be a stronger focus on making outputs of model runs available. A NERC Research Programme proposal for work towards a new dynamical core is currently going before NERC Council.  User friendly: In parallel with addressing scalability and making the most of next generation computers, the UM needs to become more user friendly if it is to be an efficient and effective model for the research community. Ease of access and use were often cited by respondents as a reason to turn to non-UK models.  Computing support: Computing support on HECToR and MONSooN is managed by NCAS-CMS. The group also offers limited support for local computer services but users‟ expectations in this respect are very high. A particular issue raised during the audit was the request for increased support for installation of HadCM3 on local machines and clusters.  Model initialisation for seasonal and decadal prediction: Data and data assimilation are core requirements. Data assimilation for the atmosphere has been routine for many years for weather forecasting but ocean data assimilation is very immature. Methods for the coupled Earth system models are not necessarily same as for atmospheric, ocean components separately, ie optimisation of data assimilation schemes cannot necessarily be achieved by working on and optimising schemes for separate components of the system. Issues of data and data assimilation will therefore go hand in hand with development of high resolution models for seasonal and decadal prediction.

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 Testing against observations: The responses to the audit suggest that more effort is required to compare models and data. Two specific areas of activity were raised during the audit. Firstly more effort is required to test new high resolution models such as HiGEM which aim to improve predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales. Secondly more effort is needed to exploit the paleo record – particularly looking at periods of rapid change.  Paleoclimate: Paleoclimate modelling is not well supported by MOHC models, as this is not an operational priority for MOHC. This is contrasted with “most international ESMs” which include elements relevant to the paleo community. These elements include isotope chemistry, ice sheets, geochemical interactions with deep-sea sediments, weathering. There is a need to consider the development path for paleoclimate models/EMICs in the UK, including the future development of GENIE and FAMOUS. It was for example suggested during the audit that HadCM3 could become the EMIC of the future as computer power develops. There are many EMICs worldwide and an important consideration for users is the quality of the physics and ease of use. Switching from one model to another requires a relatively small investment in time or computer power.  Supporting older models like HadCM3: The audit revealed HadCM3 is still very widely used and as noted above could become the EMIC of the future. How much support and investment should be made in supporting and developing the model?

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5. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

5.1 Introduction Some of the issues regarding the need for a new dynamical core for the UM with improved scalability have already been discussed in Section 4. Section 5.2 considers IGCM, Section 5.3 models used by NCAS Weather and Section 5.4 AtmosFOAM, a dynamical core with an adaptive mesh refinement.

5.2 IGCM The Intermediate Global Circulation Model (IGCM) simulates the global dynamics of the Earth‟s troposphere and stratosphere. IGCM1 is the dynamical core based on the spectral primitive equation model by Hoskins and Simmons (1975). IGCM2 has a simple boundary layer, moisture transport and convection, and simplified radiation; IGCM3 which has a more complex radiation scheme, clouds, and a slab ocean. The latter is in essence a simplified climate model, and can represent similar processes to models such as HadAM3. Because of its flexibility it can be used to test many atmospheric processes important to climate. IGCM3 has been extended vertically to include processes in the middle atmosphere and a comprehensive chemistry scheme. The IGCM is a very useful bridge between state-of-the-art GCMs and the theories that underpin them. Because of its speed and simplicity it can be used to test key theories, as well as the sensitivity of GCMs to structural parameters by the use of idealised simulations for instance.

Status The model was written by and now is supported and used by Mike Blackburn in Reading. It is widely used under individual grants obtained by institutions around the country which use it for climate science. Several groups in the University of Reading use the IGCM for climate and atmospheric research in general, as well as investigating the effects of stratosphere on climate. The University of Southampton uses the IGCM as the atmospheric component of its FORTE model. The University of Bristol uses the IGCM as the atmospheric component of GENIE-2. The University of Oxford (OAPP), Imperial College (atmospheric physics) and British Antarctic Survey use it for atmospheric process studies. DAMTP has a modified version for stratospheric process studies. Proximity to UM and Not applicable Met Office Visibility The model is used internationally. The audit highlighted current use by research groups in McGill internationally University in Montreal for climate/stratospheric research, a group in MIT for climate research, and a group in Columbia, NY for planetary climates research Links to NERC The IGCM can help to answer the question “Key processes determining the sensitivity of the strategy climate system” and “Natural variability and the link with climate change”, given its use in helping to understand processes important in climate change. Governance The model is available from the University of Reading- It is freely available for research purposes

5.3 Models used by NCAS Weather Although strictly beyond the scope of this study, it may be noted that over the past year or so there has seen a strong growth in interest in using the WRF (NCAR‟s Weather Research and Forecasting Model) to complement the UM and Met Office research models such as LEM (Large Eddy Model) and BLASIUS ((Boundary Layer Above Stationary, Inhomogeneous Uneven Surfaces) model. Experiments so far suggest that WRF can be supported as a community model for relatively little effort, given the extensive technical support from the USA and users find it well suited to process studies (it is easy to modify for sensitivity tests). It is likely that a wide range of models will continue to be developed and used. Distinctions between “climate” and “weather”, in term of modelling requirements are likely to continue to be blurred. 27 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

5.4 AtmosFOAM AtmosFOAM is the development of dynamical core of the global atmosphere with adaptive mesh refinement. The current research effort, through NCAS is very small – 1 researcher.

5.5 Key issues This area highlights issues already raised in the previous section, namely:  How to support legacy code still widely used in the community and how long for.  The increasing use of US community models.  How to identify and support key developments for the future.  How should NERC support the need for a new dynamical core, including links to JWCRP?

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6. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND AEROSOLS

6.1 Introduction This area revealed a wide variety of UK models and imports from the USA. A key recent development has been the integration of UKCA, and its aerosol model GLOMAP into the UM. This development is generally welcomed by the UK community and there is an expectation by many groups that there will be a migration towards UKCA in due course. However, to date, testing and availability in the UK academic community has been limited and hence researchers continue to use their current systems.

6.2 UKCA The objective is to develop, evaluate and make available a UK community atmospheric chemistry- aerosol global model suitable for a range of topics in climate and environmental change research. UKCA calculates changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol distributions as a function of time and related feedbacks into the climate system. It is designed as a component of the UM and a major recent achievement has been the integration of UKCA with the UM. UKCA uses the standard tracer transport schemes available in the UM, and uses diagnostics from the atmosphere model which are made available at each timestep. The main components of UKCA are the interface with the UM, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry schemes, together with aerosols, and components which couple the trace gases and aerosols to the radiation scheme of the UM. The principle task completed in the past year or so was to bring the entire UKCA model together in version 6.6 of the UM. Future versions of the UM will automatically include UKCA components. Working versions include:  Climate resolutions N48L38 (96x73, with 38 levels to 39km) for tropospheric chemistry development  N96L38 (192x145) for current tropospheric chemistry and aerosol modelling with HadGEM2-A and HadGEM3-A  N96L38 for running HadGEM2-ES (coupled AO with carbon cycle schemes) over 100 years  N48L60 (to 84km) in HadGAM1A for stratospheric chemistry (running for 100 years to provide stratospheric ozone predictions)  Running in demonstration AQ regional forecast model (146X182 with 38 levels) Work is currently in progress to make UKCA available at UM7.1 HadGEM3-A on HECToR and to develop an Extended Tropospheric Chemistry scheme in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre. The MODE Aerosol Package has been developed and tested in GLOMAP and now in UKCA These parallel strands are being combined at UM7.1 to produce a coupled Climate Community Model. The outputs are aimed at the following applications: Climate projections to 2100: The model is a state-of-the art chemistry/climate model, which is designed to perform centennial timescale integrations for IPCC assessments. Chemistry-ecosystem cycles: The model is also suitable to explore chemistry-ecosystem interactions, including natural emissions of VOCs and DMS, and deposition of ozone and nitrogen species in gaseous and particulate forms. Regional air quality: Air quality is a major concern during the coming century, with large increases likely in surface ozone and particulates at some locations. Ozone hole recovery: Investigation of the recovery of stratospheric ozone and links to climate change (and this problem intimately connects the Kyoto and Montreal Protocols).

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Status Core funding for model development comes through NCAS National Capability. NCAS funding also provides user support. Model development is also funded through Responsive Mode grants, and Research Programme funding from NCEO and QUEST. Core funding is very modest (2FTE for development, 1 FTE for computing support). The “hard core” developer/user community (mainly NCAS and Met Office) is ~15-20 people. But there is a much wider potential user/interest community - ~70 people were present at the UKCA launch event earlier this year. The community will grow as interactive ocean and vegetation schemes become integrated into climate prediction models (cf QESM). However QESM is not the only future development/exploitation route. An important consideration is how to encourage cohesion in the atmospheric chemistry community around UKCA.. Proximity to UM Fully integrated with UM and Met Office Visibility UKCA is fully integrated with UM – hence will have visibility where ever UM is internationally exported. Currently being using in Australia (CSIRO) New Zealand, for example. UKCA is part of WCRP/SPARC CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/CCMVal/ programme. Results show that UKCA is internationally competitive. UK groups have good visibility in Europe. Eg SCOUT-O3 EC (http://www.ozone- sec.ch.cam.ac.uk/scout_o3/ ) Framework project was coordinated by Cambridge group. Links to NERC Climate System strategy Including chemistry and biology in climate change Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system Natural variability and the link with climate change The role of the polar regions in the global climate system Earth System Science Global biogeochemical cycling Atmospheric composition Forecasting and mitigating natural hazards Impact of volcanic emissions on the climate Environment, pollution and human health Process studies and enhanced models of the dynamics of transport and transformation of pollutants .... in the environment Governance UKCA aims to be a genuine community model. Anyone who has access to UM has access to UKCA. Development is closely linked with UM. More could/should be done to make UKCA available to a wider range of users.

6.3 GLOMAP GLOMAP is the GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes. It is a family of aerosol physics/chemistry models of varying complexity that run in several host global dynamics models, including the QESM. The aim of the model is to simulate global aerosol and the impact on climate and Earth System processes, including natural aerosol (dust, forest fire smoke, sea spray etc) and anthropogenic aerosol (air pollution). The model simulates all aerosol emissions, microphysical processes, deposition, radiative impacts etc. Aerosol transport is provided by the host model. There are two principal versions of the model (GLOMAP-mode and GLOMAP-bin). They include the same processes but represent the aerosol in different ways (as modes or bins). GLOMAP is used in several host transport/climate models: GLOMAP-bin and –mode run in the TOMCAT CTM; GLOMAP-mode also runs in the UM (HadGEM models) as part of the UKCA 30 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 chemistry-aerosol-climate model. GLOMAP-mode is currently being implemented in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) to enable operational aerosol forecasts. The models have been run on global scales so far.

Status Funding of about £3M (primarily from NERC but also the EU) has supported GLOMAP development since around 2002. GLOMAP-mode development is currently supported by NCAS. Implementation in QESM and ECMWF models is supported by short-term projects. Long term funding is not secure. Current funding sources (Research Programme, Responsive Mode and EU) are as follows (typically 2-3 year projects): NCAS UKCA development NERC SOLAS NERC-AEROS (Leeds, Oxford, Met Office) NERC-AEROFORM (Leeds) NERC-STRAT (Cambridge, Leeds) NERC-ADIENT (Oxford, Imperial, RAL, Leeds) NERC-APPRAISE (core) (Leeds) NERC QUEST-QUAAC (Leeds, Manchester, Cambridge) EU – EUCAARI Integrated Project (40 EU partners) EU Marie Curie Training Network (10 EU partners) EU MACC ECMWF model development NERC Advanced Fellowship (D. Spracklen) There are 2 CASE studentships with the Met Office 5 other PhD projects at Leeds. Most of the model development and application is done at Leeds, but new overseas developers/users now exist or are planned (e.g., in Finland and at CSIRO in Australia). Proximity to UM The Met Office will be full user/developer of GLOMAP-mode. and Met Office Visibility ECMWF will be a full user/developer of GLOMAP-mode internationally It is used extensively by the University of Kuopio, Finland. It is planned to be used from 2010 at the University of Helsinki. CSIRO are planning to use GLOMAP and UKCA as part of an agreement with the Met Office. Links to NERC Climate system strategy Including chemistry and biology in climate change Atmospheric aerosols in the earth system: a review of interactions and feedbacks Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system The changing water cycle The role of the polar regions in the global climate system Earth System Science Changes in ocean ecosystems in response to increasing ocean acidity Global biogeochemical cycling Terrestrial processes and their interaction with the Earth system Ocean processes and their interaction with the Earth system Cryospheric change and its interaction with the Earth system Atmospheric composition What do records of past environments reveal about the operation of the Earth system? Governance It is a community model which others are free to use. GLOMAP-mode will be freely used by others as a community model in the UM as part of UKCA.

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6.4 CAM-Chem and WACCM CAM (the Community Atmosphere Model) is the atmospheric component of the NCAR community climate system model (CCSM). CAM-Chem is the name given to versions including fully coupled tropospheric chemistry and aerosol schemes (taken from the MOZART CTM). The model can be run in fully interactive modes with other CCSM components (ice, ocean, land). CAM-Chem (based on CAM 3.0) is run with the interactive Community Land Model (CLM), which drives e.g. biogenic VOC emissions. WACCM (whole atmosphere chemistry climate model) is the extended middle atmosphere version of NCAR‟s „CAM‟ model and also part of its community climate system model (CCSM). WACCM extends to 140 km while all high-lid versions of the UM stop at ~80 km. For that reason WACCM is particularly suitable for mesospheric chemistry.

Status Both models used in Leeds: CAM-Chem: 1 British Council grant at Leeds WACCM: 3-year NERC PDRA and studentship (2009-2012) Responsive Mode funding. No specific funding beyond that. US national funding for at NCAR (overall ~10s of positions), which should be secure. Proximity to UM Not applicable and Met Office Visibility WACCM, CAM, CCSM have a very high profile internationally. The „benchmark‟ in internationally many international model intercomparisons. Links to NERC Climate System strategy Including chemistry and biology in climate change Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system Natural variability and the link with climate change The role of the polar regions in the global climate system Earth System Science Atmospheric composition Governance The models are publicly available from NCAR. Development is best done in coordination/collaboration with NCAR to avoid duplication.

6.5 FRSGC/UCI Chemical Transport Model The FRSGC/UCI CTM is a 3-D global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport. The model is used to simulate the emission, transport, chemical transformation and removal of atmospheric trace gases in the troposphere, and to understand changing atmospheric composition and its effects on air quality and climate. Meteorological data are supplied off-line to drive the model, and the model may be run at different resolutions (typically 1-3° globally) with GCM or assimilated fields. The model has been a test-bed for schemes that are currently being implemented in UKCA and TOMCAT.

Status There is no central funding for the model; it has been developed over 15-20 years under a number of different research projects (mostly NASA-funded). There is currently no UK funding for this model but it is used at University of Lancaster Proximity to UM Not applicable and Met Office Visibility Modest user base worldwide internationally

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Links to NERC The model contributes to understanding links been air quality and climate, and allows strategy exploration of the role of natural and anthropogenic processes in controlling atmospheric composition, global change, and ecosystem inputs. The process focus is a key challenge highlighted in both NERC‟s climate and environmental pollution themes, and atmospheric composition/global change interactions are highlighted as a key challenge under the Earth System Science theme. Governance The model is actively maintained by Michael Prather at University of California, Irvine. The model is available for wider use with his agreement.

6.6 GEOS-Chem Global and regional atmospheric chemistry transport model driven by assimilated meteorological data. It simulates Ox-NOx-VOC tropospheric chemistry, heterogeneous chemistry; and tagged CO2, CH4, HCN, dust, CH3CN, CO, mercury, carbon and sulphur isotopes. It includes parameterisations to describe surface emissions from biogenic trace gases, oceanic trace gases, and dust; dry and wet scavenging processes.

Status There is core NASA money to support the ongoing development. There are approximately 30 international groups actively working on this, each with their own funding. The model originates from the NASA GISS transport model in the 1980s, and has been developed extensively by the atmospheric chemistry group at Harvard to the community model it is today. The chemistry modules within GEOS-Chem model are currently being made consistent with the NASA ESM framework. It is estimated that 15-20 people use GEOS-Chem in the UK, 8-10 of which are in Edinburgh Proximity to UM Not applicable and Met Office Visibility Groups in Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Holland, Switzerland, China, South Korea, internationally Japan, and Singapore. GEOS-Chem is used extensively in North America. Links to NERC  Chemistry and biology in climate change (Climate System) strategy  Atmospheric composition (Earth System Science)  Surface air pollution (Environment, pollution and human health) Governance The model is centrally managed at Harvard (model scientist, Daniel Jacob) and by a number of committees focused on particular aspects of the model, e.g., chemistry, GHGs, aerosols, emissions. There are no restrictions on its use or development. Model developments are encouraged to be returned to Harvard, where they are subsequently incorporated into the general release once they are evaluated.

6.7 HadAM3-STOCHEM and HadCM3-STOCHEM The model originated at the Met Office/Hadley Centre, and a version of it is still used there, although it is in the process of being superseded by HadGEM2 and UKCA (see above).

Status The Met Office originally funded model development; this funding has now mainly switched to UKCA. Most sources of funding in UK academic community now coming to an end Proximity to UM Coupled to HadAM3/HadCM3 and Met Office Visibility internationally

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Links to NERC  Chemistry and biology in climate change (Climate System) strategy  Atmospheric composition (Earth System Science) Governance The model is readily available to anyone interested in using it, although documentation is sparse, so it is realistically only available to those with some modelling experience. Versions of the model are being used at the University of Leeds, Bristol and Edinburgh.

6.8 TOMCAT/SLIMCAT, p-TOMCAT These are global off-line 3D chemical transport models, forced by analysed winds and temperatures (e.g. ECMWF, MO). Model can be used for atmospheric tracer studies or full chemistry runs. Main components are atmospheric transport (advection, convection, boundary layer mixing) and chemistry (stratospheric, tropospheric, idealised). The first version of TOMCAT was written by the PI, Martyn Chipperfield at Meteo-France, Toulouse in 1991. Since then development has occurred in Cambridge and now Leeds. The model was developed from scratch. SLIMCAT was originally a „stratospheric‟ version of TOMCAT (with isentropic coordinates) but now the code is merged into a single „whole atmosphere‟ CTM with different options for the vertical coordinate (and other processes). The p-TOMCAT variant is used at BAS to understand major past changes in methane; diagnosing how ice core parameters would react to past atmospheric chemical changes; understanding the import and export of chemicals from the Antarctic atmosphere.

Status Support from NERC Responsive Mode grants or EU. Aside from work of PI, other development and maintenance is performed as a sideline of NERC/EU science projects. PI‟s department in Leeds has a Computer Officer (Dr S. Pickering) who helps with technical coding issues and support of model webpages/ discussion forum. Proximity to UM Has been integrated into UM. But this is now being superseded by UKCA. and Met Office Visibility The model has been widely used in EU projects such as GEOMON and SHIVA. internationally Links to NERC Climate System strategy Including chemistry and biology in climate change Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system Natural variability and the link with climate change The role of the polar regions in the global climate system Earth System Science Global biogeochemical cycling Terrestrial processes and their interaction with the Earth system Ocean processes and their interaction with the Earth system Atmospheric composition Governance The model is installed on HECToR and thus available to any NERC researcher with an account there. For other machines the model is available by request to the PI. For people with access to the model there is no restriction on use.

6.9 Key issues The audit has revealed a very wide range of models, both originating in the UK (eg UKCA, GLOMAP, TOMCAT/SLIMCAT, HadAM3-STOCHEM) and from the USA (CAM-Chem, WACCM, FRSGC/UCI, GEOS-Chem, MEGAN). A number of issues were raised by respondents to the audit:

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 UKCA integration with the UM provides an opportunity for the UK. To encourage increased development and use of UKCA sufficient resources must be put in place (people, computing). There is a danger that without sufficient resources, including issues of access to UM, chemistry modellers will go elsewhere – eg lots of well supported (but not necessarily better) US models are readily available.  Off-line chemical transport models are an excellent way of testing sub modules used in ESMs. Direct development of code within a model like the UM is very slow. All modules should be tested in simpler models (eg chemistry in a CTM) and the transferred to the ESM when they work.  As well as chemistry, CTMs can tests many other sub modules (surface models etc).

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7. LAND

7.1 Introduction The main land model, integrated into the UM and part of QESM is JULES. Section 7.2 considers JULES and its main components. Not all activities are directly related to JULES – other activities include development of a carbon cycle data assimilation system based on the BETHY terrestrial biosphere model and the development and use of a number of dynamic global vegetation models (HYBRID, LPJ, SDGVM).

7.2 JULES and its components The main components of JULES are “physically based” models of:  land surface fluxes of heat, moisture and carbon. The energy balance of the vegetation layer and the underlying surface (soil or snow) is modelled.  soil heat and moisture fluxes  carbon stored in vegetation and the soil. JULES is the land surface model in the UM and originates in the Met Office, but can also be run in “standalone” mode, driven by observations of near-surface meteorology. JULES is based on the MOSES model, with later modifications. A dynamic vegetation model (TRIFFID in the current version of JULES) can used to simulate the distribution of plant functional types. Simple models of phenology are included. The QUEST initiative has added the following components of JULES:  the Ecosystem Dynamics (ED) vegetation model which has been developed to replace TRIFFID  the ECOSSE model of soil C and N  the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN) model  the SPITFIRE model of fire processes and emissions  the MEGAN model of VOC emissions (see Section 7.3)  JULES-crop, a version of JULES which includes a parameterisation of crop lands JULES is also interfaced into the IMOGEN4 global climate impacts model.

Status The lead management organisations are Met Office and CEH. They also use the model in their projects –these projects are a mixture of externally funded (e.g. EU) and core funded (National Capability). Dedicated support for JULES is limited. A JULES office was created employing one person (employed by Met Office) 50% funded by Met Office and 50% funded by QUEST (NERC Research Programme funding). The additional funding from NERC was to incorporate the QUEST developments. What will happen after the QUEST money runs out (September 2010), has not been decided yet. The other major land surface models available are: CLM (the US community Land Model), Orchidee (the French land surface model) and CABLE (the Australian land

4 IMOGEN (An intermediate complexity climate model for impacts scenario generation) is a computationally efficient modelling system designed to undertake global and regional climate change impact assessments. A pattern-scaling approach to climate change drives a gridded land surface and vegetation model (JULES). The structure allows extrapolation of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to different future pathways of greenhouse gases, including rapid first-order assessments of the land surface and associated biogeochemical cycles.

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surface model). There are alternative modules that could potentially be used within JULES to represent the carbon cycle (for instance LPJ and the Sheffield Vegetation Dynamic Model) but JULES is the only UK-based Land Surface Model (combines hourly energy balance, hydrology and carbon and nitrogen cycling). Proximity to UM Part of the UM and Met Office Visibility The model is used internationally, both operationally as part of the UM and for internationally research. In the spring 2010 it will be added to the suite of land surface models included in LIS: NASA‟s Land Information System. In addition, there has been some discussion about using JULES in a Hyper-resolution model of the globe (1km) being built by a US research partner (Princeton University). Links to NERC The improved understanding and description of the land surface in climate and earth strategy system models is an essential part of NERC strategy. The continuing development of JULES will underpin the Climate System and Earth System Science themes and make contributions to the other NERC science themes. Governance The model is a “community” model. Anyone can use it for research once they have signed a licence agreement that they will use it so. There are 6 institutions in the UK who own the model collectively (the developers of the new code). They have drawn up a licence agreement that allows them use in non-research activities. The JULES management committee meets twice a year and decides on operational and science issues – such as version control, responsibilities, science meetings etc.

7.3 MEGAN MEGAN – the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature Biogenic emission model, used stand-alone or as a component of an ESM. The model uses information about vegetation cover, plant functional type, soil moisture and climate variables (temperature, photosynthetically active radiation) to derive emissions of isoprene, terpenes and other hydrocarbons into the atmosphere. The model is used in Lancaster and Sheffield (QUEST funding), at CEH (JULES) and in Edinburgh. Lancaster is currently initiating a UK users group for the MEGAN model and is coordinating UK development efforts. It is highlighted here as an important link between land and atmospheric chemistry.

Status Model development in the US is funded by NCAR; contributions from Lancaster have been supported under the QUEST Research Programme QUAAC project. Proximity to UM It has been integrated into JULES (see Section 7.2) and hence into the UM and QESM and Met Office Visibility As the primary model of biogenic emissions, MEGAN has very wide use internationally internationally in atmospheric chemistry/aerosol and climate models Links to NERC Biogenic emissions constitute an important Earth System process, providing the strategy mechanism for a number of important climate system feedbacks, and strongly influencing atmospheric composition; this type of model is thus a vital part of any ESM development. Governance The model is maintained by Alex Guenther (NCAR) and the latest version is periodically made available for public use

7.4 Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System CCDAS is a variational data assimilation system based on the terrestrial biosphere model BETHY coupled to an atmospheric transport model TM2 capable of assimilating various observations

37 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 related to the carbon cycle or terrestrial ecosystems such as atmospheric CO2 concentrations, remotely sensed vegetation activity or local eddy covariance measurements. Model outputs are global gridded datasets of terrestrial carbon fluxes and their uncertainties as well as atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their uncertainties, used directly to analyse the terrestrial carbon cycle and its response to climate variability / change. The model can be used to investigate terrestrial carbon cycling processes and constrain these processes by various observations of the global carbon cycle and the land surface.

Status CCDAS is currently funded partly by QUEST Research Programme funding, by the EU FP6 project IMECC and M. Scholze‟s (Bristol) Responsive Mode NERC fellowship. Proximity to UM The CCDAS framework will be adapted by the University of Exeter and the Hadley and Met Office Centre for a JULES based CCDAS Visibility CCDAS was initially developed by an international consortium with scientists from the internationally Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany, FastOpt, Germany, and CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia (now LSCE, France). A number of similar developments are taking place around Europe (CCDAS- ORCHIDEE in France, CCDAS-JSBACH in Germany) Links to NERC CCDAS addresses a number of the NERC Earth System Theme challenges (global strategy biogeochemical cycling, terrestrial processes and their interaction with the Earth System, atmospheric composition), but also with relevance to those in the Climate System Theme (key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system, natural variability and the link with climate change). Governance CCDAS is jointly further developed by the University of Bristol, FastOpt and LSCE..

7.5 Global Dynamical Vegetation Models Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) provide information for carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes and vegetation distribution and potential shifts associated with climate change. A number of models are currently used and/or under development in the UK. TRIFFID is the model currently integrated into JULES and used by the Met Office in HadGEM2-ES. A new development, ED/SPITFIRE, has been funded as part of the QUEST programme for integration with JULES and is expected to supersede TRIFFID in future operational models such as HadGEM3-ES. Alternatives in the UK include LPJ (used in Bristol), HYBRID (Cambridge) and SGDVM (Sheffield). Models are generally “owned” by their PIs (eg including C Prentice, for LPJ; A Friend, Cambridge, for HYBRID; F. I. Woodward and M.R. Lomas, Sheffield for SGDVM). Groups working on any particular model tend to be very small The models differ in detail, emphasis and approach. For example comparing HYBRID and JULES/TRIFFID: HYBRID follows separate soil moisture and temperatures for each land surface type within each grid-box; HYBRID contains more explicit detail concerning canopy level processes, including an improved leaf-level photosynthesis model; HYBRID contains different physiological approaches to plant metabolism, including growth and allocation; HYBRID simulates actual competition and vegetation dynamics, whereas JULES/TRIFFID uses a more aggregated approach; HYBRID contains simpler surface physics (including hydrology) parameterisations than JULES. Overall, JULES is very much more orientated towards predicting biophysical feedbacks with the atmosphere, whereas HYBRID is focussed on predicting vegetation processes, including carbon dynamics.

7.6 Key issues Comments during the audit suggest that while much progress has been made in recent years including biological processes within ESMs, the present level of effort is well below that required to incorporate realistic interactions between biology and the physical processes of the climate system.

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The audit suggests that here is a shortage of experienced researchers in the field of vegetation dynamics and fire modelling. Comments during the audit also suggest the visibility of JULES in the international community is not as high as some other models (CLM, Orchidee).

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8. PHYSICAL OCEAN

8.1 Introduction NEMO is the main ocean circulation model in the UK community now and much of the effort in NERC centres and Met Office is directly related to NEMO. Other models are used, for example, to challenge and explore the physics in NEMO (eg the development of CHIME with an isopycnic model, see Section 4.3.1). ICOM has been described as the “next but one generation” ocean model This is a revolutionary way to model the ocean, using a grid which is unstructured (eg elements can have arbitrary shapes) and adaptive (the grid can change in time). Thus the grid will increase its own resolution automatically wherever the flow needs it (eg in regions of strong horizontal gradients or if small- scale eddies or currents begin to form). These two models are described below with some additional comments on other ocean models used by NERC Centres.

8.2 NEMO The NEMO ocean modelling system comprises the OPA ocean model, the LIM2/3 ice model, and the PISCES and LOBSTER ecosytem models. The model was originally developed by LOCEAN in Paris (CNRS laboratory at the Jussieu University). NEMO is similar to other models such as MOM4 which have been developed in the US. The main part of NEMO used and developed by the UK community is the OPA ocean model. As discussed in the following sections, the UK has a number of alternative ecosystem models (HadOCC, MEDUSA, ERSEM, PlankTOM) and tends, at present, to use the CICE sea ice model. Hence in the discussion below “NEMO” may be taken to refer mainly to the OPA part of the model. NEMO is the main model at NOCS, funded through Oceans 2025. Global integrations at 1°, ¼° have been completed and NOCS is starting a global 1/12° model. Biogeochemistry (MEDUSA – developed at NOCS) is now running in NEMO ¼ model. NOCS is actively involved in developing physical, ice, and ecosystem model improvements, and also technical improvements to the code and system. NEMO has been taken up by the Met Office for both modelling of the climate system and operational ocean forecasting. The HadGEM3 family of models will have a NEMO ocean (see Section 3 and 4.2). NOCS and Met Office are working closely on integrating NEMO into the HadGEM series. The highest planned resolution, at present, will be the ¼° ocean model from NOCS which is being transferred to the new joint Met O- NERC supercomputer, MONSooN. The plan is to carry out a 200 year integration on MONSooN to test the model before it is coupled to the atmosphere and other components. It will also be used for data assimilation runs. In addition to getting the NEMO ¼ model onto MONSooN, NOCS staff are actively involved a number of other aspects of the Met Office MORPH3 programme (for HadGEM3 development), eg analysing existing Met Office runs, helping diagnose and correct what is going wrong, developing new parameterisations (eg for vertical/ diapycnal mixing).. The operational oceanography at Met Office (FOAM group) is also switching to the NEMO based system, in line with French MERCATOR group. Coordination of this is through the European GMES MyOcean project. Both NOCS and NCEO are involved in this effort. NEMO will also be used at NCAS-Reading, for the next generation of HiGEM (HiGEM2 will use a NEMO ocean – this could well be the NOCS 1/12° ocean model that NOCS is now starting to develop). Further scientific coordination of high resolution NEMO modelling across Europe is achieved through the DRAKKAR programme.

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NEMO is also in use at POL which is developing a version for shelf seas, with tides, water clarity, specialised turbulence models etc, using expertise derived from the development on POL‟s in- house POLCOMS shelf sea model. All activity within NCOF (National Centre for Ocean Forecasting) which includes Met Office operational, NOCS, POL, PML and ESSC, is focused around NEMO. Availability and development of NEMO are critical to UK modelling efforts. The model forms the basis for coordinating all ocean modelling activity, both in the context of systems for climate prediction and for operational ocean forecasting. Plans are now well-coordinated through JWCRP, NCOF, HiGEM, Oceans 2025.

Status Main funding through Oceans 2025, JWCRP, NCAS (HiGEM2) – primarily Research Programme funding with small elements of National Capability. Proximity to UM Fundamental to development of UM and operational ocean forecasting and Met Office Visibility Widely used in UK and Europe. UK as above. NEMO also the main ocean model in internationally France (CNRS, MERCATOR, IFREMER, LEGI-GRENOBLE), also being used in Germany (IFM-KIEL), and some take up at KNMI. Also in use in Canada (University of Alberta; DFO-Canada), Mexico, China, Korea, Ireland, Spain etc. In addition to the discussion above international projects involving NEMO include: 1. HadGEM3 porting for seasonal prediction in KMA under collaboration with UKMO - Korea Meteorological Administration 2. Studies of the circulation of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico - CICESE km 107 Carr. Tijuana-Ensenada Ensenada B.C. MEXICO 3. Hypoxia in the East China Sea - State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310012 China 4. Tidal drag and current flow on extra-solar aquaplanets - National University of Ireland, Galway 5. The role of freshwater in the high latitude North Atlantic and Arctic-North Atlantic links- (Paul Myers), University of Alberta, Canada 6. Global ocean modelling with emphasis on the NA and Arctic.- (Dan Wright, Youyu Lu, Fred Dupont, Zeliang Wang) Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Canada 7. VANIMEDAT. A Spanish research project on interannual and decadal sea level variability in the Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic Area. -Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado.Madrid, Spain 8. LIM, the Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model- Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium 9. NEMO as part of EC-Earth - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), NL- 3721 AE De Bilt Links to NERC NEMO is central to the whole UK ocean and climate modelling community, and will strategy form the ocean model for the Met Offices next climate model (HadGEM3) and operational system. It will also form the ocean component of HiGEM2 (the next high resolution UK community climate model). These models will be critical to the delivery of NERC‟s strategy and theme challenges, which are focused on improved prediction of regional climate changes on seasonal to decadal timescales. Governance The model is governed through a consortium agreement with partners CNRS, MERCATOR, Met OFFICE, NERC. The model is freely available to other users to use as a research tool. To become a member of the consortium (other members are now being considered) the partner should provide one man-year per year of effort to the NEMO system team for model development. The partner then has a voice in the consortium, and the steering committee guides the development of the model.

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8.3 ICOM ICOM is a finite element based ocean circulation and process model, utilising adaptive unstructured mesh methods. The model is non-hydrostatic and has been applied, to date, to a range of laboratory, idealised process and global scale applications. The primary science driver is the importance of smaller scale processes (that are currently not able to be represented at the grid resolutions used by today‟s models) in global scale dynamics, and the construction of a model that is capable of using higher resolution in regions of importance, without the need to use high resolution everywhere and hence wait many years for exa-scale computing to become available (eg as would be required for 1km scale global modelling). The model is being constructed so that it can be used to address science questions that today‟s models will not be able to answer for many years because of resolution/computational limitations, eg, the inclusion of narrow boundary currents, overturning in marginal sea overflows, localised convection, and coupling of the global ocean with shelf seas. The focus to date has been on the development of the ocean model core numerics, this is nearing a level of maturity that two-way coupling with other models (ice, atmosphere) is a priority. If these models are to be developed successfully, there is a need for long-term support, to realise the potential of the model, to remain at the forefront of cutting-edge numerical methods, and to support a user/developer community.

Status Current funding comes from a wide variety of short term grants and contracts from NERC Responsive Mode and Research Programme funding, EPSRC, Leverhulme Trust, Imperial College London (the Grantham Institute and Dept. Earth Science and Engineering), Fujitsu, BP. Faculty positions and research fellowships have been supported by Imperial College. A number of applications-based PhD positions have been supported by Imperial College. Currently the model has not been widely released and is only run at collaborating institutions, eg POL, NOCS, BAS. A limited release to „beta testers‟ is expected for mid-2010 with a wide release expected soon after that. The time scale for this is dependent on issues such as ensuring code robustness and usability are at an appropriate level, significant work towards this goal has been conducted over the past year. Proximity to UM and Met Office Visibility internationally Links to NERC Climate: the model offers the possibility of coupling the global scale with regional strategy impacts in a single framework. Improved representation of relevant processes will lead to improved understanding of the coupled climate system, improved predictive capabilities and the development of improved parameterisation in other models (e.g. if in the short-medium term simpler, faster models still need to be used for longer-period ensemble runs). The ICOM group is also developing stochastic based methods which are able to provide estimates of model uncertainty. The use of mathematically rigorous error estimates also provides the opportunity for simulation outputs with meaningful error bounds. A recently funded NERC project joint with the British Antarctic Survey will expand applications to the priority area of polar regions. Earth system science: The group is currently developing an ecosystem model within ICOM joint with NOCS. Longer term development of next-generation versions of other components of the Earth System can be envisaged. The flexibility of the modelling framework means that the model is also being applied to mantle convection simulations (1851 Fellowship), and also a number of geologically ancient applications related to hydrocarbon exploration (Leverhulme and BP funding). ICOM also plans to contribute to other themes: Natural Hazards (NERC Advanced Fellow; impacts, landslides, tsunami), Sustainable Use of Natural Resources (Severn Estuary renewable power generation; Imperial PhD project) and Technologies (advanced numerical methods and computing). 42 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

Governance The model has been in development at Imperial College with collaborations with Oxford University, NOCS, POL, BAS, Daresbury Laboratory, Heriot-Watt University, Fujitsu, and BP. The model is open source (under a GNU LGPL license). Code contributors (or their employers) own copyright but agreement for this to be freely distributed under open source license is sought before code changes are accepted in the central repository located at Imperial College. Importantly, no proprietary code is necessary at any stages of model use (cf. the use of Matlab and commercial visualisation packages by some codes for pre and post- processing of data). The view is that a community model should have absolutely no restrictions at any level.

8.4 POLCOMS POLCOMS has been developed at POL to incorporate features suitable for the modelling of baroclinic processes on the shelf, at the shelf-slope and in ocean regions to allow long term coupled ocean-shelf simulations. It is often associated with ERSEM, a shelf seas ecosystem model developed at PML (see Section 9.2). It is envisaged that GCOMS – an adaptation of POLCOMS- ERSEM for global shelf seas will continue to be used for research purposes, particularly to investigate climate impacts on shelf seas. However as NEMO-shelf gains credibility it is likely that use of POLCOMS will decline.

8.5 Other models As well as NEMO, ICOM, POLCOMS and GCOMS discussed above, a range of other physical ocean models are developed or used at POL, for specific purposes. These are listed here for completeness but may be considered, strictly, outside the scope of the present study:  FVCOM 3D unstructured grid hydrodynamics (structured in vertical); shelf seas. Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model; US community model  WAM a 3rd generation deep water spectral wave model, which has been modified for shallow water (ProWAM).  SWAM also a 3rd generation wave model intended for shallow water applications but based on the same physics as WAM and ProWAM  Sediment transport model. Calculates suspended sediment transport, bed load sediment transport, morphological and statigraphy evolution in POLCOMS.  GOTM General Ocean Turbulence Model – a suit of vertical mixing parameterisations. Two other ocean models were reported during the audit:  NOCS is using the US HYCOM model in the development of CHIME (see Section 4.3.1)  BAS has coupled the US MICOM model to the CICE sea ice model ( see Section 11.2) to carry out research into the Antarctic continental shelf processes and ice-shelf melting and freezing.

8.6 Key issues There was general consensus amongst responses from the audit that NEMO should be the main ocean model for the short to medium term and that ICOM presents an exciting development for the long term. Consideration should be given to a two model approach with NEMO providing the „business as usual‟ community model that allows the community to get on with the simulations and incremental developments. While ICOM development should be supported to provide a vision for the future.

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One element which was reported to be underrepresented in current effort is accurate representation of shelf seas and the land-ocean interface into Earth System Models (e.g. carbon pumping, and shelf seas effect on deepwater circulation and water mass formation).

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9. OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMISTRY

9.1 Introduction Ocean biogeochemistry modelling is an area of rapidly increasing importance and global visibility, as it has been realised that there is a potential for climate change and rising CO2 to have major impacts on marine ecosystems and these in turn could (a) have significant feedback effects on CO2 and climate, and (b) add to the already serious stresses on fisheries. This realisation has motivated major modelling efforts in several countries, notably the USA, France and Canada, and (crucially for the modelling efforts) an intensification of laboratory, mesocosm and field experimental research on plankton physiology and marine ecosystem dynamics. The UK community is current divided regarding the most appropriate level of complexity for ocean ecosystem modelling. There are a number of approaches to improve and enhance the current Met Office model, known as diat-HadOCC. MEDUSA, similar in structure but with more up to date parameterisations, is now running in NEMO at NOCS. MEDUSA is not as complex as other ecosystem models such as ERSEM and PlankTOM.

9.2 ERSEM ERSEM (the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) is a mature plankton functional type model that was initially developed by a EU FP3 project. It is related to NPZD (Nutrient Phytoplankton Zooplankton Detritus) type models but includes several refinements necessary to correctly represent the key processes of temperate shelf ecosystems; the main ones being some plankton community complexity, the microbial loop, variable nutrient stoichiometry, variable carbon : chlorophyll ratios and a comprehensive description of benthic biochemical and ecological processes. Top closure is provided by a relatively simple mesozooplankton description. The units of currency of ERSEM are Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Silicon & Oxygen and optionally Iron. There is an additional model which adds the sulphur cycle, via the biological production and fate DMSP/DMS. ERSEM may be coupled to a range of hydrodynamic models in 1D (GOTM) or 3D (POLCOMS or NEMO) which provide information on temperature and salinity, mixing and circulation or run alone in „aquarium‟ mode. The resolution is ~7km with 32 sigma layers. Much effort has been applied to the evaluation of this model system. ERSEM, or its close relation the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM), have been applied to other systems including tropical upwelling and oligotrophic situations and globally with some success. ERSEM has recently been extended to include the carbonate system giving it a predictive capability for future acidification states; impacts on ecosystem processes are being coupled in, as information becomes available.

Status Model originates from the ERSEM 1 &2 EC MAST projects which ended in 1996. The current version has been extensively refined over the last decade by PML. NERC funding comes through NERC National Capability and Research Programme funding from Oceans 2025, QUEST fish, UK SOLAS, NCEO. Further funding comes through a number of EC programmes (MEECE, ECOOP, MyOcean) Proximity to UM Links mainly with operational ocean forecasting and Met Office Visibility Numerous collaborations, eg HCMR Greece (Triantafillou), INGV and University of internationally Bologna (Pinardi, Vichi, Zavatarelli), Univ Autonoma Baja California, Inst Invest Oceanol, Ensenada 22830, Baja California Mexico, U. Hamburg (Moll), U. Bergen (Bellerby), U. Southern China (Gou), Sun Yat Sen University Kaohsiung Taiwan (Yu) Links to NERC Earth System Science: by enhancing our understanding of global biogeochemical strategy cycles (C:N:P:Si, biogases) through better understanding of shelf seas processes and their interaction with the Earth System. Climate Systems: by developing high resolution regional predictions for decision 45 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

making which will enable society to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Biodiversity: through investigating the impacts of climate and anthropogenic drivers on plankton community structure, habit and ecosystem resilience. SUNR: through impact on natural resources fish, links through to economics, policy and societal vulnerability and the environmental impacts of carbon capture and storage. Governance There are no restrictions on its use for research purposes. PML does not licence it for commercial application. Svn version control of the core library and the coupler, version control for the driving GCMs is generally provided by the developers of the respective sub-model.

9.3 MEDUSA MEDUSA has two classes of phytoplankton (diatoms, non-diatoms), two zooplankton (micro and meso), two detritus (slow and fast sinking) and three nutrients (nitrate, silicate, iron). As such, it is relatively simple in structure as compared to, for example, ERSEM and PlankTOM, but nevertheless incorporates sufficient complexity to address key climate feedbacks (e.g. associated with altered iron inventory). Thus, NOCS believes it to be an appropriate level of complexity for global and basin-scale climate studies (e.g., see Anderson, 2005; Anderson, in press). The model was developed in collaboration with the Met Office. It is similar in structure to Diat-HadOCC, but incorporates the latest parameterisations. The model is currently being tested in ¼ degree NEMO, and NOCS is shortly due to start a 50 year hindcast. One focus will be a study of the response of biogeochemistry in the Arctic to changing climate over the next 50 years.

Status Funding through NERC National Capability and Research Programme routes, eg Oceans2025 Proximity to UM Similar to Met Office diat-HadOCC and Met Office Visibility internationally Links to NERC Earth System Science: by enhancing our understanding of global biogeochemical strategy cycles (C:N:P:Si, biogases) through better understanding of shelf seas processes and their interaction with the Earth System. Governance

9.4 PlankTOM PlankTOM is a global marine biogeochemistry model that includes an extensive representation of marine ecosystems (lower trophic levels) based on Plankton Functional Types (PFTs). The main goal of PlankTOM is to understand and quantify the interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry (both impacts and feedbacks), particularly those mediated through CO2 and marine ecosystems. The model represents the marine cycles of C, N, O2, P, Si, and a simplified Fe cycle. The model estimates the air-sea fluxes of CO2, O2, DMS, and N2O. PlankTOM has several levels of resolution depending on the number of PFTs represented. In its most complex form (PlankTOM10), ten PFTs are represented including bacteria, six phytoplankton and three zooplankton. Its simplest version (PlankTOM4) was used to identify the processes driving the recent saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink. PlankTOM10 is the most comprehensive global biogeochemistry/ecosystem model available worldwide. It is therefore suited to address feedbacks, both internal to the ocean and within the 46 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

Earth system. The developers have gathered and analysed >7000 data points to parameterise the model, and >200,000 data points to evaluate the results. This is a unique model that is closely based on observations. However because of its complexity, PlankTOM10 cannot be tuned by random parameter optimisation. A major part of the model development is therefore the synthesis of large databases for the parameterisation and evaluation of all model components. Here, the support of the international consortium is an asset. The size of the model also makes it difficult to spin up to equilibrium.

Status In the past, funding during 2005-2008 from NERC Research Programme (QUEST Marquest and QESM projects) and from the European Union Carboocean and Eur- Ocean projects. Prior to this, model developments were primarily funded by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena and by the European Union. Currently there is very limited until the end of 2010 by a mix of funding from the NERC Research Programme ESM-Interim funding and from one new Responsive Mode standard grant. No secured funding past these dates. Proximity to UM Links via QESM and Met Office Visibility The model was built through collaborations with the International Dynamic Green internationally Ocean Project, a group of ~40 scientists who met during 7 workshops. The model output has been used to help construct the global carbon budgets published annually by the Global Carbon Project and has been used by a wide number of international groups. A highly effective scientific management structure is in place which includes the international consortium and many collaborations on individual questions within the UK and abroad. Links to NERC This model directly feeds into the following science themes of strategy Climate System: Including chemistry and biology in climate change Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system and Earth System Science: Changes in ocean ecosystems in response to increasing ocean acidity Global biogeochemical cycling Ocean processes and their interaction with the Earth system The model is also particularly well designed to quantify the importance of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and climate, and the extent of potential ocean deoxygenation in the future. Governance This is a public model. The full model code is already available on the web site.

9.5 Key issues NERC‟s Quantifying and Understanding The Earth System: Scientific Liaison Group meeting on 4 April 2008 met to share information about organisational strategies for ocean biogeochemistry modelling, and identify common areas of engagement and potential for action through a longer term UK strategy. The responses received from the audit suggest that the recommendations from the meeting are still valid. The meeting made a set of recommendations for immediate action based around:  Commonality in model resolution  Collating metadata of datasets available to validate models  Building links between QUEST and other biogeochemical data assimilation groups.

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Other issues which needed to be addressed over the longer term include levels of diversity and linking biology and physics. The group felt that there is too much diversity by chance and not design. It was proposed that one core code should be configured that would be compatible with different biological modules (ERSEM, PlankTOM, MEDUSA etc), where the modules could be switched on or off depending on the complexity required. This kind of framework was felt to be a good starting point but would require resource in the form of a core team to manage version control. In the medium term the aim would be to use NEMO as a single physical core and develop biological system modules that can be activated depending on the complexity required and the research question being addressed. The same model would work at timescales from days to millennia, and at resolutions required for operational forecasting and earth system modelling, whilst maintaining the ability to trace between the hierarchies of complexity and the ability to assimilate physical (and, later, biogeochemical) data. Technical support was needed for version control and to induct new users. In the longer term, to meet the research challenge of linking adaptive grid ocean physics models to models of marine biological processes, using ICOM as the best current example, and later coupling these linked models to models of atmospheric processes.

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10. ICE SHEETS AND SHELVES

10.1 Introduction Ice shelves are the critical interface between ice sheets and the ocean, and their inclusion in ESMs is an essential step for more accurate projections of sea-level rise. In addition, ice shelves are important drivers of the meridional over-turning circulation that is responsible for the transport of ~90% of the heat around the planet. Coupling of ice shelf models to ESMs is now a high priority. Two models have been developed in the UK: Glimmer-CISM, originally funded through GENIE and BASISM – a bespoke model used by BAS.

10.2 Glimmer-CISM Glimmer-CISM is a thermomechanical ice sheet model, engineered for ease of coupling to climate models. Present release (1.0.18) uses the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA). The model is under active development by groups in the UK (Universities of Bristol, Edinburgh and Swansea) and USA (Montana State University, Los Alamos National Laboratory), including addition of higher-order stress model, improved coupling to GCMs and nested grid capability. Given the international profile of the model, it has the potential to become the leading ice sheet model internationally for coupled climate studies.

Status Past funding: GENIE (NERC eScience, 2003-5); NERC CPOM (2005-7) Present funding: NCEO; JWCRP; US NSF IPY grant (Jesse Johnson); US CCSM funding (Los Alamos) Funding from NERC through a number of Responsive Mode grants, as well as Research Programmes such as NCEO and JWCRP is primarily aimed at model development and specific applications. Funding for longer term support of Glimmer- CISM is lacking, at least in the UK. Proximity to UM Adaptation of coupling to HadCM3 is in progress. Funding through JWCRP. and Met Office Visibility The model is well-known internationally: inclusion in CCSM and US SeaRise project internationally (for IPCC AR 5) gives high visibility in North America. Users in USA (Montana, Los Alamos), China, Switzerland (Zurich), Italy, Russia. Glimmer-CISM use and development was also a key topic during a recent international ice sheet modelling summer school held in Portland, Oregon (August 2009). Links to NERC The ice sheets are a key uncertainty in predictions of climate change. Continued strategy development of models such as Glimmer-CISM is crucial for reducing these uncertainties. As such, the model addresses the NERC Climate Change, Earth System Science and Natural Hazards themes. Governance Contributors retain copyright on their contributions. Most development occurs on a public repository (www.berlios.de), but contributors are granted privacy for novel, unpublished innovations. Public releases are made at regular intervals, licensed under an open-source license (currently GPL). Release of new code is by mutual agreement between contributors. It has a well-defined version numbering system; the model is well-documented, and is supplied with a suite of test configurations, as used in the published validation. Model development uses Subversion for version control. Process overseen by international steering committee (Rutt (chair), Payne, Hagdorn, and three members representing CCSM Land Ice Group: Jesse Johnson (Montana), Bill Lipscomb (Los Alamos), Steve Price (Los Alamos)).

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10.3 BASISM BASISM, is the ice sheet model used by BAS and is based on a thermo-mechanically coupled ice- sheet simulator with horizontal (“membrane”) stresses. The user community in the UK includes BAS, Leeds, Bristol and Durham but it is not used internationally.

Status NERC National Capability support at BAS Proximity to UM It has been used asynchronously with HadCM3. and Met Office Visibility Not used internationally internationally Links to NERC Direct link to ES theme (past environments, ice sheet response to climate and sea- strategy level change; and Climate theme (hydrological cycle); Natural Hazards (sea-level rise). Governance BAS developed and “owned”; freely available on request.

10.4 Key issues For Glimmer-CISM the main issues are:  Fragmented funding focusing on particular projects could cause dissipation of development effort, resulting in multiple versions of the same model, with diminished profile and reduced confidence in model provenance and verification.  Lack of baseline support for model administration, caretaking, documentation, and public access facilitation.  Challenges associated with coordinating a large, geographically-separated group of developers, and maintaining a single model code suitable for multiple applications. Respondents for both Glimmer-CISM and BASISM commented on their disconnection from other major UK ESM developers. Some Glimmer-CISM funding through JWCRP may help to alleviate this.

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11. SEA ICE

11.1 Introduction Sea ice is a critical component of the Earth system not only for the climate but it also plays a major role in high latitude ecosystems. Current ESMs have limited skill in simulating observed sea ice (extent, thickness, spatial and temporal variability) in both hemispheres. Key improvements required are much better micro-scale physical parameterisations such as melt ponds in the Arctic, and snow ice formation in the Antarctic. There are two main sea ice models used in the UK: CICE from Los Alamos (LANL) and LIM which is part of the NEMO suite. The community of UK developers and users is very small and the only other model reported during the audit is FRUGAL (Fine Resolution Greenland and Labrador sea intermediate complexity model).

11.2 CICE When the decision was made at the Met Office to change to NEMO for ocean modelling there was also a need to change the sea ice model. At the time LIM2 was considered but rejected as it was considered to have inferior physics to that already in the HadGEM1 UM. The Met Office had worked with Los Alamos (LANL) for HadGEM1 ice developments and both CPOM and POL were also working with CICE. Another factor in favour of CICE was the full-time support for CICE by Los Alamos, including a code repository which is regularly updated. CICE includes:  Elastic viscous plastic rheology  Multilayer thermodynamics  Multiple ice categories. Work at Met Office focuses on ensuring compatibility and integration with the UM atmosphere model. At CPOM the main emphasis is on improving the physics. The model is being used to assess the recent changes in the Arctic sea ice cover, future changes in the Arctic sea ice cover, and areas of the model that require improvement. The model is being used in combination with satellite data and process studies/models. At BAS the model is combined with the MICOM isopycnic ocean model (from U of Miami) and a bespoke representation of ice shelves to carry out research into polar continental shelf ocean and sea ice processes and ice shelf-ocean interaction, relevant to the stability of ice sheets (hence sea level rise) and global ocean thermohaline circulation (hence general climate).

Status NERC support at CPOM through NCEO National Capability and Research Programme. Model also used at BAS and POL. Discussions are under way with the LANL regarding the implementation of the CPOM sea ice model developments into the official release of CICE. Proximity to UM Sea ice model of choice at Met Office and Met Office Visibility CICE is widely used by University groups in the USA, by LANL, and by the US internationally National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Links to NERC Climate System: Key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system; The strategy role of the polar regions in the global climate system Earth System Science: Forewarning of abrupt changes in the Earth system; Cryospheric change and its interaction with the Earth system Governance The CICE model has been developed by LANL but is freely available. There are no restrictions on its use or development.

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11.3 LIM CICE and LIM3 (the latest release) have similar physics. LIM3 has introduced salinity of ice as a prognostic variable. LIM is the standard sea ice model packaged with NEMO. Details regarding status and access are as for NEMO.

11.4 Key issues There was no strategic decision at the Met Office to use CICE – it was just the best option at the time. Since LIM comes bundled with NEMO, the choice of model will remain under review. At CPOM, the main issue is the need for additional fund to allow developments in sea ice physics to be incorporated into official releases of CICE.

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12. OTHER

12.1 Solid Earth The audit resulted in one response in the area of “solid Earth”, describing TERRA and related codes. This area was considered on the boundaries of the scope of the survey but is noted here for completeness. The code simulates mantle convection and mantle circulation. The model is trying to answer questions such as – why do we have plate tectonics – how does plate tectonics work – how has plate tectonics (and mantle flow) affected the surface, over time; how does the interior „work‟ and drive all surface dynamics. Arguably such models are part of a complete Earth system science model since mantle circulation is the main very long term driver for the Earth system.

Status Support for science investigations using the models is provided by NERC Responsive Mode grants. There is no support from NERC for the model itself. Proximity to UM Not applicable and Met Office Visibility The model is widely used internationally, eg by group in Germany; Australia; USA; internationally Canada. Also workers in many places are using direct outputs from TERRA – this group is even larger – but includes workers at Utrecht, Netherlands; Lausanne, Switzerland; Shell (Houston and Rijswik); Bayreuth, Germany; Stanford Univ, USA. Links to NERC Dynamics of the Earth‟s interior and their manifestation at the surface strategy Governance The model does not have a formal governance structure. It is made readily available on request. The code is held within an SVN repository at Cardiff which is mirrored at Munich. The code changes are regularly checked by a Build-bot set-up which tests the code on various machines, architectures, compilers for a number of cases. Through SVN and strong links to other major developers the main development trunk will be managed soon – with leading input from Cardiff. There are no restrictions on its use or development (other than that the original authors be acknowledged).

12.2 Couplers Couplers for linking model components did not emerge as a major issue during this audit. Where relevant responses noted that standard couplers such as OASIS or the Met Office‟s bespoke FLUME are used. The main input to the study in the area of couplers concerns the development of the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG). The BFG 1 and 2 are research meta-couplers that take a generative programming (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_programming) approach to coupling. Model components, their required coupling and the resultant coupled model target information are described in XML and the appropriate wrapper code is generated from the description. BFG has been shown (or is currently being developed) to be able to generate coupling code that targets OASIS3, OASIS4, ESMF (Earth System Modelling Framework, USA), TDT (from PIK), MPI, Grid based MPI, web services or `in-sequence‟ argument passing (equivalent to a sequential implementation). In all cases the underlying science code does not change. BFG isolates the science code from the coupling implementation and allows the user to choose the most appropriate underlying coupling system. It can, therefore, be considered to be a meta-coupler, rather than a coupler in its own right. The BFG isolation approach to model coupling has been adopted by the Met Office FLUME project Therefore, FLUME-compliant model components are BFG compliant and vice versa.

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A number of GENIE coupled model configurations have also been coupled using BFG in the NERC GENIEfy project. A FLUME-compliant JULES is also being developed for the QUEST ESM within the NERC QESM project. BFG has been demonstrated to work with the lower resolution longer time scale GENIE coupled model as well as being developed for the higher resolution HadGEM family configurations (via FLUME and QESM); this promises to facilitate the coupling of model components at different resolutions.

Status Funding is through NERC Research Grants (Responsive Mode and Research Programme). A limited amount of (EU) funding is available in the METAFOR and IS- ENES projects. Currently approximately 2 years funding over the next 4 years for BFG research. There is no funding for support.. Proximity to UM Compatible with UM coupler FLUME and Met Office Visibility BFG is being evaluated by the US Curator project to see whether it can be used to internationally generate ESMF coupling code for ESMF compliant components. BFG is also being developed as part of the METAFOR and IS-ENES projects Links to NERC BFG facilitates scientific output by making it easier to couple components together and strategy to choose the underlying communications (coupling) system. It should therefore make it easier for coupled model developers to investigate links and feedbacks in ESM. Governance BFG is currently licensed by the University of Manchester and is free for academic use. Developers (U of Manchester) would create an open-source release of the software were it to become a NERC ESM tool. Couplers may need to be considered in a broader context, eg linking climate prediction and impacts models.

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13. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

13.1 Introduction There is increasing international collaboration in the development of ESMs, not least due to the costs of their development, and the associated computing costs of running large experiments with them. International cooperation aids the development of models through entraining more resources into model development than would be possible with funding from a single centre. International cooperation also facilitates model inter-comparison through the development of common standards and coordinated experiments. It also provides access to models for research centres with the expertise to use them in experiments, but without the resources to develop their own. The requirements for cooperation have been overlaid upon a natural scientific competitiveness to generate the highest quality models. This has lead to different countries and research institutes within them adopting different approaches to and degrees of international cooperation. The spectrum of model development arrangements ranges from single institute/nation models through to international community models where development shared amongst a wide range of contributors. These different organisational models are often reflected in the governance and availability of the models to users outside the development teams, with community models associated with free availability and an emphasis on user support. In practice though, most major models are available to the research community, with restrictions on use for commercial purposes.

13.2 International access, collaboration and visibility, Met Office

13.2.1 The Met Office approach to access Access to the HadXXX family is available to the research community under license and recently there has been a significant increase in collaboration between the NERC community and the Met Office, which is now embodied in the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme. Access to the UM internationally is through bilateral cooperation and license agreements and these have been concluded with:  Australian Bureau of Meteorology  Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)  Norwegian Meteorological Institute  South African Weather Service  National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NZ)  Korea Meteorological Administration  Ministry of Earth Sciences (India).

13.2.2 International collaboration and visibility Until recently, the core modules for almost the entire UM and HadXXX families of models were developed and maintained in-house at the MOHC. More recently component models not originating in MOHC nor in the UK have been incorporated (NEMO-ocean, French origin and CICE-sea ice , US origin). Other models such as JULES-land and UKCA-chemistry and aerosols have been developed jointly with NERC funded researchers. The international collaboration and visibility of the Met Office models extends far beyond bilateral cooperation agreements regarding access to the UM or development of particular modules. In particular the UM has featured very prominently in international model intercomparison experiments and IPCC assessments – indeed historically this has been one of the main drivers for the MOHC programme.

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The MOHC also participates in a range of EU Framework projects aimed at model development in collaboration with European partners. For example ENSEMBLES is a five year climate change research project involving 66 partners from across Europe led by the Met Office, and funded by the European Commission to study the likely effects of climate change across Europe as a whole. Other collaborations include the UK-Russia Climate Change Science Collaboration Project funded by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the UK Japan Climate Collaboration (together with NERC, Section 4.2.1).

13.2.3 International Standing of HadXX Models Objective measures of quality of models are difficult to come by because the models are highly complex and some models perform better in some tasks and some geographic regions than others. Nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged in the community that the Met Office‟s Hadxxx family of models are amongst the highest quality and best respected of those available internationally. This view is supported by objective measures of models‟ ability to re-create past climates developed by Reichler & Kim (2008)5 who developed a single index of model error and applied it to three generations of Climate Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIP1-3). The index, was based on a weighted mean of grid-point errors for climate models when compared with validation data (mostly over the period 1979-1999). The results are shown in Figure 7.

Hadxxx ECHAMx

NCAR CCSMx GFDL

Figure 7: Measures of model error for the three CMIP experiments 1-3, and the Pre-Industrial Control experiment of CMIP-3. Reichler and Kim (2008).

5 Reichler, T.and J Kim (2008), How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today‟s Climate?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 89, 303-311 56 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

As mentioned above, there are limitations to this approach. The measure is based on mean climate, and models that produce a good mean to not necessarily represent extremes well. They may also not produce specific events well – the monsoons, or El Nino events for example, and compensating errors can give a false impression of accuracy. Finally, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future skill. Notwithstanding these caveats the consistent high performance of the Hadley Centre family of models over a long period of time is notable.

13.3 International access, collaboration and visibility, NERC

13.3.1 Overview of NERC policy on international collaboration NERC‟s strategy commits NERC to working internationally to find solutions to global problems and acknowledges the benefits international collaboration brings. These can include greater science impact, higher quality science and the promotion of excellence through training, international comparison and knowledge exchange. In addition, duplication of effort and expense can be avoided by shared science planning and management; shared funding of major infrastructure; joint access to facilities, data and knowledge; shared synthesis, reporting, dissemination and uptake activities; and shared networking, communication and science advocacy. NERC hosts several international science project offices, of relevance to climate and Earth system science, at its research and collaborative centres, including:  International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2009  Climate Variability & Predictability (CLIVAR)  Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS)  Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)  Global Environmental Change & Food Systems (GECAFS)

13.3.2 International collaboration in ESM Sections 4 to 12 note many different types of international collaboration for the models developed and used with funding from NERC. Significant types of collaboration and specific examples include:  NUGEM which was developed as part of the UK Japan Climate Collaboration (UJCC) is a collaboration with Japanese scientists based at the Earth Simulator in Yokohama.  The HRCM programme has committed to deliver decadal predictions using HiGEM for the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which will directly inform the next IPCC assessment report on Climate Change (AR5).  Output from UKCA has been submitted to a major model inter-comparison project run by the WCRP SPARC.  In the spring 2010 JULES will be added to the suite of land surface models included in LIS: NASA‟s Land Information System.  Global reach of climateprediction.net is achieved through worldwide volunteer computing.  There are numerous international scientific collaborations using models originating in the UK.  UK scientists lead and participate in EU Framework programmes.  Many of the models used and developed in the UK originate overseas. NEMO and CICE have already been noted above. A wide range of US models are commonly used (chemistry, weather/atmosphere, ocean). Users often cite ease of access and good support as reasons for turning to US models.

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13.4 Other International approaches to access and collaboration There is a diversity of models and approaches in the US. The NCAR community models (CCSMx) embody the open, community approach and level of support offered by users have been highlighted by respondents to the audit questionnaire. The chemistry component of the models CAM-CHEM in particular is used extensively in NCAS. In addition the CCSM suite includes a “whole atmosphere model” with a top height of 140KM (compared to 80 Km for the Hadley family. The CCSM models were have considered a benchmark standard in coupled climate models for many years and early versions performed very well in the CMIP comparisons described above. However, the programme as suffered staffing and funding difficulties in NCAR over recent years. The last main release of the full model, CCSM 3.0, was over 5 years ago and there are slippages in the programme for next version intended to form the basis of AR5 experiments, which was due for release in Summer 2009. Other main US models represented in the CMIP come from NASA (GISS) and GFDL (CM2.x). The GFDL development is closer to the Hadley approach, with development focused in one centre. The CM2.x models were a clean break from the past with all the main coupled model components (the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface models) developed from new code sets. It was one of the highest performing models in Reichler & Kim‟s evaluation. GFDL is currently working on three models (CM2M, CM2G, and CM3) involving different permutations of evolutions for the ocean and atmosphere components. CM2G uses the GOLD ocean model with an isopycnal coordinate system. GOLD is a prototype hybrid-coordinate model that can take advantage of hybridising different coordinate systems in particular parts of the water column. A second isopycnal model is also under development in the US by the HYCOM consortium which is a multi-institutional effort sponsored by the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP), as part of the U. S. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), to develop and evaluate a data-assimilative hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure (generalised) coordinate ocean model (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model). HYCOM is the model used by NOCS in CHIME, but the development is noted here because it is a relatively rare example of a partnership involving operational, research and private sector organisations. The collaboration includes Fugro-GEOS, Shell and ExonMobil amongst others with interest in the ocean forecasting capabilities of the model. The approach in Germany mirrors aspects of the Hadley Centre and GFDL approaches. Like the Hadley Centre, the Max Plank Institute (MPI) is the prime developer of the model (the ECHAMx series shown on Figure 8). A Community has built up around the MPI models using the COSMOS framework which incorporates the various earth system components of the MPI climate model and the OASIS coupler, but this is primarily a user/feedback community rather than a shared development community. However, unlike the Hadley case, the MPI model is completely separate from the operational weather model run by Deutsch Wetterdienst (DWD). The proximity of the Hadley family of climate models to the operational NWP model run by the Met. Office is often cited as a strong beneficial in terms of efficiency of development and sharing of computer resources. However there are disadvantages to the arrangement. Technically there are compromises to be made in satisfying two user communities and there are also IPR and licensing restrictions on the models that come with their basis in the UM. These issues are avoided in the German model, which may be one factor in a steadily improving performance of the MPI models in the CMIP comparisons.

13.5 ESM Consortia As cooperation evolves, a number of ESM consortia are emerging. These represent more or less tightly coupled groupings of organisations seeking to cooperate over standards  The development of the Earth System Modelling Framework (ESMF). This US initiative aims to create a single flexible modelling framework out of the three major US models (CCSM – NCAR mentioned above, GFDL/NOAA – Dept Commerce/NOAA, GISS - NASA),

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allowing interoperability of model components and open access to model components as well as the ESMF itself.  The community around the MPI models using the COSMOS framework.  The development of EC-EARTH. This is a European-wide initiative lead by KNMI and involving Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. The aim is to develop a community climate model based on the atmospheric core of the ECMWF weather forecasting model. The first version of EC-EARTH was released in March 2007 and a new version is expected to contribute to the AR5. There are also a number EU framework projects which contribute to closer cooperation. ENSEMBLES was noted above. A recently started project is IS-ENES (Infrastructure for a European Network for Earth System Modelling) which aims to foster:  The integration of the European climate and Earth system modelling community  The joint development and evaluation of ESMs  High-end simulations enabling to better understand and predict future climate change  The application of Earth system model simulations to better predict and understand future climate change impacts. The complementary PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) project is preparing the creation of a persistent pan-European HPC service. While IS-ENES and PRACE are not presently aiming to produce a single European Earth System Model, there is already a trend towards increased standardisation and commonality. Figure 8 summarise the models and components in use in the main European centres. For this it is clear that there is considerable standardisation occurring in some components, notably the coupler and the ocean model.

Institute Country Model Coupler Atmosphere P. Ocean Sea Ice Chemistry Land Meteo-France CNRM France ARPEGE-NEMO OASIS ARPEGE-IFS NEMO LIM MOCAGE LPJ CMCC Italy C-ESM OASIS ECHAM5 NEMO LIM ? SILVA MPI Germany COSMOS OASIS ECHAM5 MPIOM MPIOM MESSy JSBACH KNMI The Netherlands EC-Earth OASIS IFS NEMO LIM TM5 H-TESSEL Met. Office UK HADGEM3 OASIS UM NEMO CICE UKCA JULES CNRS/IPSL, France FRance IPSLCM OASIS LMDz NEMO LIM INCA ORCHIDEE

Figure 8: Main European models and components The atmosphere components are typically based on the dynamical core from the centre that is hosting the model, so there is considerable diversity here. The European centres have mostly standardised around LIM (though a table of international US models would show a similar standardisation around CICE). The atmospheric chemistry and land components still show complete diversity and it would be expected that these would be areas for consolidation over the next few years.

13.6 Key issues The HadXXX family of ESMs from the MOHC continues to provide the UK with a world leading capability. However there is significant trend towards consolidation in the USA and in Europe. An important issue for NERC is its level of international ambition and how this should be achieved in an international market place.

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14. KEY ISSUES The main sections of this report described models by thematic domain. However in analysing the results of the audit it is clear that there are other dimensions to be considered in devising a strategy that will meet the UK‟s future needs. These are described in this section.

14.1 Degree of diversity In most areas a range of models is available or being developed by the UK. An underlying question is whether NERC should encourage diversity or a traceable hierarchy of models. For example, the UM (HadCM3 to the HadGEM3 family and their components) and close derivatives form a traceable hierarchy (Figure 6). In the traceable hierarchy changes are made to address particular issues, but in principle the consequences of any change are understood. So for example FAMOUS is a faster version of HadCM3 but changes to make it faster are understood. In contrast GENIE is not part of a traceable hierarchy but based on a different set of models. Different approaches, not part of a model hierarchy, may also be required to challenge mainstream developments, address new problems or provide radically new solutions (eg the unstructured, adaptive grids such as ICOM). Diversity is the mainstay of climate and Earth system science at the international level, where much of the effort is to compare and contrast the outputs of different, independent models.

14.2 Types of activity supported NERC funding supports several different types of activity related to model development, each of which provides valuable functions at different stages of the model development life-cycle. The main types are:  Model maintenance and support. Effort required to maintain and make available “operational” version of current models and heritage models that are widely used in the research community – for example supporting the current use of HadCM3 and its derivatives  Model evolution. Development of enhanced versions of existing models that improve the physics/parameterisation, the resolution, or the number of processes included. For example the HiGEM activities and development of JULES.  Challenging and blue sky research. Activities that either challenge the current status quo to highlight deficiencies in present models or propose entirely new modelling methods. For example HYCOM/CHIME and the development of ICOM.

14.3 Model based activities and support required The audit tried to distinguish between “users” and “developers” of models. In practice, those responding to the audit carry out a wide spectrum of activities from developing substantially new models, through to using models and outputs from previous model runs. NCAS-CMS provides access to models and supports many models and model configurations, creates tools to exploit model outputs and prepares model inputs. The group also trains, helps and assists over 200 UM users in the UK. Overall the messages from the audit suggest additional support is needed for “users” in a number of areas:  Providing access to models (see below regarding governance)  Installing models on local computers or clusters. There is significant support on national computers (HECToR, MONSooN) through NCAS-CMS. There is also limited support for local computer services but users‟ expectations are very high and cannot always be satisfied with resources available.  Providing better storage, access and visualisation of model outputs – with many large models producing order 0.1-1Tbyte of data per model year this is a growing concern. A central catalogue of previous model runs available to the NERC community was suggested during the audit.

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14.4 Governance Models have a wide variety of governance and funding structures. There are a number of broad categories with different conditions of access and funding.  Operational models: Operational models have the following characteristics: o Licensed by the owner o Responsibility for integrating new developments rests with the owner o The owner determines the how much information is released, often full information is only shared internally in the owner organisation o Fully supported for operational use within the owner organisation, including a well defined system for version control o Related data may be made available, under license. The main operational models are the current or near current versions of the UM, including climate variants used to provide inputs to IPCC assessment reports.  Community models: Community models have the following characteristics: o Freely available, eg downloadable o Generally flexible and supportive of integrating new developments initiated by the research community. New developments or changes to the "official" version are usually approved through a steering committee. The detailed work on various aspects of the model are organised in working groups of scientists who come together to work on topics on which they share common interest. o All information is shared; models are fully documented and tested on different platforms o Fully supported by separate funding to research, eg help desks, FAQ o All data files, both input and output are freely available. This mode of working is common in the USA, eg Community Climate System Model (CCSM) from NCAR. Community models are particularly attractive for non-expert users and for developers who wish their developments to have a high international profile.  Research models: There are two main types of research models: legacy operational models (eg HadCM3) and new development models. In general the models are: o Available for collaboration o New developments are the responsibility of the developer and new code remains under individual ownership. o Information sharing is informal, eg through research papers, meetings o Supported mainly through research funding, therefore models tested on a limited number of platforms, with some documentation and limited help o Data files may be available. Broadly the UK has adopted an operational/research mode of working, whereas in the USA activities are based around a community/research mode of working. Some UK models such as JULES and UKCA have been described in the audit as “community models” but the levels of long term support, current governance structures and availability/access suggest significant improvements are required to realise these aspirations fully. Pros and cons are considered, where relevant, in the previous thematic sections.

14.5 Scale and complexity The audit did not look in detail at next generation computing requirements, as this has been addressed in other studies for NERC. For reference, some typical computing requirements, collected during the audit, are provided in Appendix D. Climate and Earth system models can push the boundaries of capability computing, both in terms of raw CPU usage and data volumes produced. The three main factors are: increasing resolution, increasing complexity and a desire to understand variability, either through increased model time or through ensembles. The computing challenges are

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 The time to solution (a target is ~1000 times reality, ie a 250 year model run takes 3 months elapse time).  As resolution, complexity, ensembles, experiment lengths increase in input and output sizes also increase. For some big experiments I/O time dominates. Models need flexible input/output mechanisms tuneable for different computer systems. In addition an experiment is not complete when raw data is output. Analysis of data (feature tracking, statistics, re-gridding) all requires significant computational time to complete the experiment.  To build full Earth system models or mix and match model components from a variety of sources means integration of diverse modelling components: o Models have different discretisations and different decompositions, hence the challenge is to load balance the experiment o Models have different performance characteristics, hence the challenge is to optimise all model components to the computer architecture o Models have different I/O strategies, hence stopping and starting experiments is a challenge, as is post processing of the raw model output data.  Model codes need to be portable, flexible and tuneable. However typical models may have ~1M lines of code, are mostly written in Fortran, represent many 1000s of person-years of effort, have been used for a broad range of experiments representing a large body of work. Hence retaining model expertise as models evolve requires considerable effort.  Model codes need to be scalable and efficient as cores per processor increases. Over the next 5-10 years the clock speed of individual processors is expected to increase only slowly, so increases in computational capability are expected to come mainly through an increase in the number of processors. Massively parallel supercomputers with ~O(100,000-1M) processors are expected. The numerical algorithms in the UM that have been developed to simulate the atmosphere on previous generations of supercomputers are not suitable for use on massively parallel machines. Current models are already reaching their limits of parallelism on O(1000) processors, and routine optimisation efforts will not deliver sufficient improvements to exploit the next generation supercomputers. Hence there is an urgent need to commence the research and development of a new UK atmospheric dynamical core model, suitable for both weather and climate applications, designed from the outset to exploit the new computer technology. An issue for the ESM strategy will be how to anticipate and integrate future computing requirements and likely availability.

14.6 Timing and evolution In developing its strategy NERC needs to consider the evolution of requirements and technological capabilities on a 5-10 year timescale. This will take us beyond the publication of IPCC AR5 in 2013 and into the era of massively parallel supercomputers.

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A. LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS TO THE AUDIT The following table lists those who contributed to the audit. There were 3 types of contributions:  Q: contributors filled in the ESM questionnaire – all questionnaires returned to the study team have been collated in the “Catalogue of responses”.  I: contributors were interviewed by the study team – the questionnaire acted as an interview guide.  N: contributors provided additional written material – often by email, either to clarify an aspect of the completed questionnaire or as a follow up to an interview.

Surname First Institution Other contributors Model Q I N name General Hoskins Brian Grantham Institute General discussion √ Sutton Rowan U of Reading, General discussion √ NCAS Mobbs Stephen U Of Leeds, General discussion √ √ NCAS Rodger Alan BAS Modelling at BAS √ Barkwith Andrew BGS DAEM study, √ catalogue of all models used by NERC centres Bennett Ben Red Oak HPC study √ Consulting Lunt Dan U of Bristol Traceability and √ documentation of models Bengtsson Lennart U of Reading International √ dimension Valdes Paul U of Bristol General discussion √ GENIE, FAMOUS Prentice Colin U of Bristol General discussion √ √ LPJ O'Neill Alan U of Reading, General discussion √ NCAS Steenman- Lois U of Reading, General discussion, √ Clark NCEO IT support Gurney Robert U of Reading General discussion √ Met Office/Hadley Centre Gordon Chris Overview, model √ evolution Martin Gill Atmospheric √ modelling, HadGEM3-A Senior Cath Atmospheric √ modelling, HadGEM3-A Hewitt Helene Ice modelling, CICE √ Jones Chris Land, carbon cycle, √ JULES Boucher Olivier Atmospheric √ √ chemistry, aerosols, land UKCA, JULES

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Surname First Institution Other contributors Model Q I N name Collins Bill HadGEM2 √ √ Wood Richard NEMO, HadOCC √ Climate and ESMs Vidale Pier Luigi U of Reading, Len Shaffrey (U of High Resolution √ √ NCAS Reading), Dave Stevens Climate Programme (UEA) (HRCP). High resolution families: HiGEM/HiGAM, NUGEM/NUGAM, HadGEM3-H Joshi Manoj U of Reading On behalf of the QESM QESM √ √ development team: Manoj Joshi, Jonathan Gregory, Annette Osprey, Corinne Le Quere, Erik Buitenhuis, John Pyle, Luke Abraham, Ken Carslaw, Graham Mann, Eleanor Blyth, Doug Clark, Rupert Ford, Allan Spessa, Rosie Fisher, Oliver Wild, Josh Fisher, Josh Hooker Gregory Jonathan U of Reading, Met QESM, FAMOUS √ Office Gray Lesley U of Reading NCAS Climate Group, HadGEM vertically √ Reading extended Woolnough Steve U of Reading NCAS Climate Tropical HadGEM family √ Group, Reading Megann Alex NOCS NOCS CHIME CHIME (HadCM3 + √ Community HYCOM ocean) Smith Robin U of Reading FAMOUS development FAMOUS √ √ group: Robin Smith, Annette Osprey, Jonathan Gregory Allen Myles U of Oxford HadSM3-N48; √ HadCM3L-N48; HadCM3-N48; HadAM3-N96; HadAM3-N144; HadRM3-50km; HadRM3-25km Mineter Mike U of Edinburgh HadCM3 plus √ variants, including HadAM3, FAMOUS Tett Simon U of Edinburgh HadCM3 – including √ its FAMOUS configuration; HadGEM2 Wang Zhaomin BAS HadCM3/HadGEM1/ √ HadGEM2, HIGEM, FAMOUS, MITGCM, IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models Muri Helene Universite HadCM3 (and √ Catholique de possibly FAMOUS) Louvain, Belgium

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Surname First Institution Other contributors Model Q I N name Wolff Eric BAS Chemistry and Past HadAM3 enabled with √ climate programme water isotope Orr Andrew BAS Climate variability & HadCM3/HadAM3 √ modelling group / Climate programme Singarayer Joy U of Bristol Bristol Research Initiative HadCM3 plus √ for the Dynamic Global variants Environment (BRIDGE) and the Bristol Glaciology groups at the University of Bristol. [Prof. Paul Valdes, Prof. Tony Payne, Dr. Ros Death, Dr. Rupert Gladstone, Dr Dan Lunt, Dr Joy Singarayer, Dr Tamsin Edwards, Dr. Peter Hopcroft, Dr Ron Kahana, Dr. Davide Tarsitano, Dr Julia Tindall and several PhD students] Edwards Neil OU GENIE Team GENIE √ √ √ Lenton Tim UEA Additional comments GENIE √ √ GENIE Team: Prof Andy Watson, Dr Agatha DeBoer, Dr Martin Johnson, Dr Philip Goodwin, Dr Valerie Livina, Dr Sudipta Goswami, Dr Eric Buitenhuis, Greg Colbourn, Nem Vaughan. Hargreaves Julia JAMSTEC GENIE √ (Japan) Kump Lee Pen State (USA) GENIE √ Oliver Kevin OU GENIE √ Atmospheric dynamics Cnossen Ingrid BAS Hua Lu, Middle IGCM1 & IGCM3 √ Atmosphere Dynamics (MAD) group within the Climate programme of BAS Joshi Manoj U of Reading, NCAS Climate group IGCM √ NCAS based at Reading (Lesley Gray, Mike Blackburn, Chris Bell) plus collaborators at Oxford (David Andrews, Matt Rigby) and BAS (Hua Lu) Gadian Alan U of Leeds NCAS Weather NCAS Weather (LEM, √ UM, WRF Weller Hilary U of Reading AtmosFOAM √ Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols Pyle John U of Cambridge UKCA √ Braesicke Peter U of Cambridge UKCA √ Carslaw Ken U of Leeds GLOMAP √

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Surname First Institution Other contributors Model Q I N name Arnold Steve U of Leeds CAM-Chem √ Chipperfield Martyn U of Leeds John Plane, Leeds WACCM √ √ Wild Oliver U of Lancaster FRSGC/UCI √ Chemical Transport Model (CTM) Palmer Paul U of Edinburgh Edinburgh users of GEOS-Chem √ √ GEOS-CHEM (8PDRAs, 1PhD) Stevenson David U of Leeds On behalf of group: David HadAM3-STOCHEM √ Stevenson, Ruth /HadCM3-STOCHEM Doherty, Ian MacKenzie Wild Oliver U of Lancaster On behalf of the MEGAN √ Atmospheric Science group at the Lancaster Environment Centre, particularly Nick Hewitt and Kirsti Ashworth Wolff Eric BAS Chemistry and Past pTOMCAT √ climate programme Chipperfield Martyn U of Leeds TOMCAT/SLIMCAT √ √ Land Blyth Eleanor CEH Doug Clark, Richard JULES √ √ Harding, CEH Spessa Allan NCAS-Reading ED -SPITFIRE √ Fisher Joshua U of Oxford FUN √ Osborne Tom U of Reading JULES-crop group in JULES - crop √ Reading Sholze Marko U of Bristol The CCDAS group: CCDAS √ Marko Scholze, Wolfgang Knorr, TiloZiehn, Tomomichi Kato Friend Andrew U of Cambridge HYBRID, SIMEARTH √ √ Woodward Ian U of Sheffield SDGVM √ Williams Mathew U of Edinburgh JULES √ Physical ocean New Adrian NOCS Ocean Modelling and NEMO √ √ √ Forecasting Group, NOCS Holt Jason POL POL POLCOMS, NEMO, √ √ ERSEM, CICE, ICOM Others FVCOM, WAM, SWAM Sediment transport model. GCOMS, GOTM all used by POL modelling group Young Emma BAS POLCOMS √ Piggott Matthew Imperial College ICOM model ICOM √ √ development team, Imperial College Srokosz Meric NOCS ICOM, NEMO, √ √ MEDUSA

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Surname First Institution Other contributors Model Q I N name Shuckburgh Emily BAS MITgcm, NEMO √ Ocean biogeochemistry Allen Icarus PML On behalf of the PML ERSEM √ √ ecosystem modelling group J Blackford, M Butenschon, L Polimene, R Torres, S Ciavatta, Y Artioli, R Holmes

Anderson Tom NOCS Biogeochemical MEDUSA √ √ √ modellers in OMF, NOCS Le Quéré Corinne UEA Also on behalf of Erik PlankTOM √ √ Buitenhuis, UEA Ice sheets and shelves Rutt Ian U of Swansea Response is on behalf of GLIMMER-CISM √ the UK Glimmer-CISM Steering Committee and members of the user community. Signatories to this document: Tony Payne (Bristol), Magnus Hagdorn (Edinburgh), Nick Hulton (Edinburgh) Hindmarsh Richard BAS Ice sheet/ice sheet BASISM √ modelling group Sea ice Feltham Danny UCL Seymour Laxon, UCL CICE √ √ Bigg Grant U of Sheffield FRUGAL – Fine √ ResolUtion Greenland And Labrador sea intermediate complexity model Holland Paul BAS MICOM/CICE √ New Adrian NOCS LIM2/3 √ Solid Earth Davies Huw U of Cardiff TERRA √ √ Couplers Ford Rupert U of Manchester Graham Riley Bespoke Framework √ Generator (BFG)

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B. RELEVANCE OF MODELS TO NERC THEME CHALLENGES The following table cross references the models described in this audit with the NERC theme challenges. Respondents to the audit were asked specifically to note the relevance of their modelling activity to the Climate and Earth system science themes. These are shown first in the table. Some also commented on relevance to other themes. For completeness all the NERC theme challenges are listed and where information was provided in the audit this has been noted.

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Climate System challenges

Develop high resolution regional HRCM HiGAM. NEMO ERSEM predictions for decision making; NUGAM POLCOMS Biology in ICOM ICOM

Enable society to develop mitigation and All All All All All All All All adaptation strategies through climate science GENIE (links to socio- economic models)

Improve and expand observations to Vital for all modelling activities validate climate change detection and prediction

Increase knowledge of the physical, QESM UKCA, JULES, NEMO PlankTOM, GLIMMER- FRUGAL chemical and biological feedback GLOMAP, SDGVM MEDUSA CISM, processes GENIE CAM-CHEM, CHIME WACCM, GEOS- CHEM, TOMCAT/ SLIMCAT, STOCHEM, MEGAN

Improve understanding and modelling of All All All All All All All All key processes determining the sensitivity of the climate system

Improve understanding of natural All All All All All All All All variability and the link with climate change;

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Improve understanding of the changing CHIME, GLOMAP JULES- BASISM water cycle and how it will affect water Isotope crop availability and quality enabled HadAM3

Increase knowledge of the role of the CHIME, UKCA, MITgcm/NEMO GLIMMER- MICOM- polar and tundra regions in the global Isotope GLOMAP, CISM CICE- climate system enabled TOMCAT. POLCOMS ICOM, HadAM3, SLIMCAT, p- FRUGAL, GENIE, TOMCAT, CICE HadCM3 CAM-CHEM

Earth System Science challenges

Provide forewarning of abrupt changes in HadCM3, MICOM- the Earth system HadGEM CICE- family, ICOM, FAMOUS, FRUGAL, QESM, CICE GENIE

Changes in ocean ecosystems in GLOMAP PlankTOM response to increasing ocean acidity

Destabilisation of methane hydrate stores GENIE under global warming

Improve knowledge of the interaction GENIE between the evolution of life and the Earth

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Global biogeochemical cycles FAMOUS, UKCA, JULES, GCOMS GCOMS, QESM, GLOMAP, JULES- ERSEM, GENIE, CAM-CHEM, crop, ED- PlankTOM, Isotope TOMCAT/ SPITFIRE, MEDUSA enabled SLIMCAT, p- FUN, HADAM3 SLIMCAT, SDGVM, FRSGC/UCI, CCDAS MEGAN

Dynamics of the Earth‟s interior and their GENIE TERRA, manifestation at the surface ICOM

Terrestrial processes and their interaction GENIE, GLOMAP, JULES, with the Earth system QESM CAM-CHEM, JULES- TOMCAT/ crop, ED- SLIMCAT SPITFIRE, FUN, SDGVM, LPJ, HYBRID, CCDAS

Ocean processes and their interaction HadCM3, GLOMAP, NEMO, PlankTOM, MICOM- with the Earth system HadGEM TOMCAT/ POLCOMS, MEDUSA CICE- family, SLIMCAT MITgcm/NEMO, ICOM GENIE POL suite of models

Cryospheric change and its interaction HadCM3, GLOMAP, GLIMMER- MICOM- with the Earth system HadGEM CISM CICE- family, ICOM, GENIE FRUGAL, CICE

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Atmospheric composition Vertically UKCA, extended GLOMAP, HadGEM CAM-CHEM, family WACCM, FRSGC/UCI, GEOS- CHEM, STOCHEM, TOMCAT/ SLIMCAT, p- TOMCAT, MEGAN

What do records of past environments FAMOUS, GLOMAP, p- GLIMMER- reveal about the operation of the Earth GENIE, TOMCAT CSIM, system? isotope BASISM enabled HadAM3

Biodiversity challenges

Improve understanding of biodiversity‟s ED- role in ecosystems: processes, resilience SPITFIRE, and environmental change SDGVM

Develop new tools and techniques to describe biodiversity and its function

Improve approaches for measuring abundance and distribution of biodiversity and its functions

Enable society to predict and mitigate effects of biodiversity change on processes that sustain life

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Develop integrated tools for assessing the benefits of biodiversity

Sustainable Use of Natural Resources challenges

Extending the Resource Base

Meeting the Renewables Challenge ICOM POLCOMS

Sustaining water and soil Life Support SDGVM ERSEM Systems

Valuing Environmental Services

Natural Hazards challenges

Integrated Risk Assessment & Scientific Advice

Uncertainty in forecasting and risk UKCA GLIMMER- MICOM- assessment CISM CICE- ICOM

Storms HRCM NCAS Weather

Floods NCAS Weather

Droughts, Heatwaves & Wildfires NCAS ED- Weather SPITFIRE

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Coastal Erosion & Flooding BASISM, GLIMMER- CISM

Landslides & Subsidence ICOM

Volcanoes UKCA

Earthquakes

Tsunami ICOM

Environmental Pollution and Human Health challenges

Improve measurement and monitoring of the distribution of pollutant and pathogens at required time and space scales

Improve knowledge of processes and UKCA, models of the dynamics of transport and FRSGC/UCI, transformation of pollutants and GEOS- pathogens in the environment CHEM

Improve assessments of pollutant and pathogen exposure and risk to humans

Understand the impacts of waste management activities on the environment and human health

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Climate/ESM Atmospheric Atmospheric Land Physical ocean Ocean Ice sheets Sea ice Solid Earth dynamics chemistry, biogeochem and shelves aerosols

Technologies challenges

Improve Remote sensing instruments, their reliability and the platforms that carry them

Deploy intelligent field sensors that work independently

Deploy novel laboratory/analytical instruments in critical fields (e.g. genomics and proteomics)

Make use of the latest developments in ICOM computing power and scientific data repositories

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C. FUNDING STREAMS Respondents were asked to describe the funding situation for their activities. Following the main audit, NERC provided further information regarding the NERC funding stream for the activities: “National Capability”, Research Programme” or “Responsive Mode”.

NERC MO Other Model NC RP RM HRCM     (NCAS Willis Research Network) QESM  Vertically extended HadGEM    CHIME  FAMOUS  Isotope enabled HadAM3  Climateprediction.net  HadCM3     (eg DECC. Defra) GENIE  FRUGAL  CCSM (NCAR)   (US model) MITgcm  (US model) IGCM () () WRF   (US model) LEM, BLASIUS    AtmosFOAM  UKCA     (EU FP) GLOMAP     (EU FP, ECMWF) CAM-CHEM (US model) WACCM  (US model) FRSGC/UCI (US model) GEOS-CHEM    (US model) HadAM3-STOCHEM TOMCAT/SLIMCAT   (EU FP) p-TOMCAT  JULES (and components)    (EU FP) MEGAN  (US model) CCDAS   LPJ   HYBRID, SIMEARTH SGDVM   NEMO    (EU FP, French origin)

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NERC MO Other Model NC RP RM ICOM   ( EPSRC, Leverhulme Trust, Imperial College London (the Grantham Institute and Dept. Earth Science and Engineering), Fujitsu, BP) POLCOMS     (EU FP) POL models (various)    (EU FP) HYCOM (in CHIME)  (US model) MICOM   (US model) ERSEM   (EU FP) MEDUSA   PlankTOM   (EU FP) GLIMMER-CISM   ( US NSF IPY grant (Jesse Johnson); US CCSM funding (Los Alamos)) BASISM  CICE   LIM TERRA  BFG   (EU FP)

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D. INFORMATION ON TYPICAL COMPUTING REQUIREMENTS The audit asked for computer resources required for typical model runs. Where information was provided by responding to the survey, this is tabulated on the following pages.

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Typical model Resolution Time-step Length of Output data Machine/ CPU Elapsed Time configuration model run generated by (type / number Hours one year of processors) model run Climate, ESM, atmospheric dynamics HiGEM N144L38; 20 mins Atm; 265 years 0.2TB HECToR / 128 6144 hours per 2 days per year 1/3° ocean 15 mins Ocn year HiGAM N144L38 15 mins 120 years 0.1TB HECToR / 128 3072 hours per 1 day per year year NUGAM N216L38 15 mins 250 years 0.2TB ES/96, 3840 CPU hours 15 hours per HPCx/256 per year year HECToR/512 NUGEM N216L38; 15 mins Atm; 20 years 0.3TB ES/96 4 days per year 1/3° ocean 15 mins Ocn HadGEM3-HA N216L63 15 minutes In development, 0.4TB HECToR / 512 18,400 core 1.5 days per year but about 10 hours / year years so far (NOT YET OPTiMISED) HadGEM3-HA N216L85 12 minutes 1 year 0.5 TB Met O IBM / 31,000 core In development HECToR 1024 hours / year, NOT YET OPTIMISED HadGEM3-HAO N216L85; 12 minutes In development 1 TB Met O IBM NA ¼° NEMO QESM N48L60/ 20 mins 100 years 0.5 Tb HECToR/128 300,000 100 days ORCA2 CHIME Atmospher Atmosphere: Pre-industrial Atmosphere Bull / 8 Bull: 2,500 hours Bull: 100 days HadAM3 e 3.75° x 30 minutes control run: 200 ~5MB 2.5° x 19 years Nautilus SGI Nautilus: ~500 Nautilus: ~20 layers; HYCOM v2.1.34 Ocean: 36 Ocean ~80 MB Altix / 16-32 hours days Ocean minutes 1.25° x 1.25° x 25 layers 79 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

FAMOUS version XDBUA N24L11 60 mins 100 years 26MB QUEST linux 192 1 day – atmosphere, ocean, atmos atmos, 12 cluster / 8 NPZD biogeochemistry, 2.5x3.75L2 hours ocean fixed vegetation, fixed 0 ocean atmospheric CO2 HadCM3 3.75x2.5° 30 mins 200 years Variable: 2GB QUEST HPC/8 ~4200 (520 ~3-4 weeks atm 1 hour (up to 15GB) raw hours on each 1.25x1.25° /150MB+ proc.) for 200 ocn processed years HadCM3L 3.75x2.5° 30 mins 200 years Variable: 1.5GB QUEST HPC/16 ~2000 ~2 weeks atm 1 hour (to 10GB) raw 3.75x2.5° /150MB+ ocn processed HadAM3 3.75x2.5° 30 mins 30 years Variable: 1GB to HPC ~640 ~1-2 days atm 10GB raw (Bluecrystal)/64 HadAM3H 1.875x1.25 15 mins 30 years Variable: 10Gb HPC ~18000 ~2-3 weeks ° atm to 15GB raw (Bluecrystal)/64 HadRM3 Variable 5 mins 30 years Variable: 9Gb to HPC ~11000 ~2 weeks (0.44° up to 15GB raw (Bluecrystal)/64 0.22° atm) genie_eb_go_gs 36 x 36 3.65 days 3000 years 2 MB Any single 1 1 hour (physics only) gridboxes x (ocean) (per restart) processor 16 ocean levels genie_eb_go_gs 36 x 36 3.65 days 800 years 4 MB Any single 1 1 hour _ac_bg (with 16 gridboxes x (ocean) (per restart) processor biogeochemical tracers) 8 ocean levels

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GENIE v4746 36x36x16 around 36 500 years never looked - altix IA64 2048 for a 64 member 2.3h hours - easily processor - ensemble, 1.8h different manageable GENIE runs on 1 per ensemble modules use cpu - enabling member (I quote different large ensembles, for 64 since time timesteps typically 256 per member actually increases for larger ensembles) GENIE v4746 36x36x16 500 years 8 processor less than 1 hour less than 1 hour Jan’08 MacPro (can run 8 members at once ~same speed) GENIE 36x36x16 ocean 5000 year spin 1 Mb (but output HPC cluster 5 hours per 150 days eb_go_gs_ac_bg_el timestep ~3 up followed by only written out (Linux) ensemble (physical climate and days 2000 year e.g. at years member coupled carbon cycle transient run 1,10,50,100,500, 1 processor per without sediment and (e.g. for 1000,5000 - user ensemble rock weathering) emissions configurable). member scenarios) both spin-up and transient run as 400 - 1000 member latin hypercube simulation GENIE eb_go_gs 36x36x16 ocean 2000 years 0.5 Mb High-end 1.5 hours (physical climate only) timestep ~3 Desktop PC days 2000 year spin-up for e.g. tutorial experiment

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GENIE eb_go_gs 36x36x16 ocean 500 years 0.5 Mb Computing Lab 45 minutes timestep ~3 PC 500 year CO2 tutorial days experiment run with GUI and real-time visualisation GENIE eb_go_gs 36x36x8 ocean 500 years 0.5 Mb Computing Lab 15 minutes timestep ~3 PC 500 year CO2 tutorial days experiment run with GUI and real-time visualisation FRUGAL Coarse 1 degree to 3 hours 1000 years 1 GB Normal PC 120 5 days 6 degrees, 19 levels in ocean, 1 level atmosphere FRUGAL Fine 20km to 1 45 minutes 50 years 3GB Normal PC 1000 50 days degree, 19 levels in ocean, 1 layer atmosphere MITgcm 1/6 degree, 20 years 30TB HECTOR/ 180 86400 hours 120 hours 42L (quad cores) IGCM3 T42L38 18 min. 2 years 2.9 GB x86_64/1 18 1 day IGCM3 T42L26 18 min. 50 years 12 GB x86_64/1 400 17 days IGCM3.1 T31L26 20 mins 50 years 10 Gb Linux box / 1 140 6 days Atmospheric chemistry

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GLOMAP-TOMCAT Usually 30 mins (T42) 1-10 years (T42) 0.1 Tb for 10 Hector/32 ~400 CPU-hrs 1 model year in T42L31 years simulation per model 12 hrs (32 CPUs) (2.8ox2.8o (T42) simulation year lat/lon) Also run at T21L31 (5.6o) & T106L31(~ 1o) GLOMAP in UKCA in the N96L38 or 30 mins 3-100 years 0.4 Tb for 10 Hector ~1000 CPU-hrs 1 model year in UM N96L85 years /MonSOON per model year 16 hrs (64 CPUs) 64 GLOMAP in UKCA in N48L60 1 hour 3-100 years 1 Tb for 10 yrs Hector/64 ~1500 CPU-hrs 1 model year in QESM per model year) 24 hrs (64 CPUs) CAM 3.5.14 (tropospheric 2.0 x 2.5 3 months Varies (e.g. NCAR IBM 1.77 hours wall chemistry, interactive L26 ~4200 Mb per Power 575 clock land/biosphere, no year with all (Bluefire) / 8 ocean) species output nodes (256 cpus) and land model daignostics) WACCM 3.1.9 (whole 1.9 x 2.5 1 year Varies (e.g. ~500 NCAR Bluevista / 12 hours atmosphere chemistry, no L66 Mb per year) 128 ocean) WACCM 3.1.9 (whole 4 x 5 L66 1 year Varies NCAR Columbia 6 hours atmosphere chemistry, no / 104 ocean) WACCM 3.1.9 (whole 4 x 5 L66 1 year Varies Hector / 32 12 hours Depends on atmosphere chemistry, no queue (typically a ocean) factor 2 slower than execution time) WACCM 3.1.9 (whole 4 x 5 L66 1 year Varies Hector / 128 4.5 hours atmosphere chemistry, no ocean)

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FRSGC/UCI Chemical 2.8°x2.8° 1 hour 1 year 10-100 Gb HPCX / 16 ~30 node hours ~2-3 days Transport Model (CTM)T42 resolution HadAM3-STOCHEM 100,000 air 30 min dyn 5 years 1.4 GB HECToR/ 32 1280 8 days parcels 5 min chem. mapped on 3 hour to a 5°x5°, coupling L19 grid ‘SLIMCAT’ – full 5.6 x 5.6 x 60 mins 30 years Varies. Typically PC (quadcore) 240 240 hours (no stratospheric chemistry L32 (separate 300 Mb with (OpenMP) (8 hours per queueing) shorter sub global output 2x year) timesteps of per month. chemistry and some advection) ‘TOMCAT’ – detailed 2.8 x 2.8 x 30 mins 5 years Varies. Typically Hector / 32 CPU 100 Depends on tropospheric chemistry L31 800 Mb per year (MPI) (20 hours per Hector queues year) (typically a factor two slower than model execution time) ‘TOMCAT/GLOMAP’ – 5.6 x 5.6 x 60 mins 2 years Varies PC (quadcore) 170 170 hours coupled tropospheric L31 (85 hours per chemistry/aerosols year) ‘TOMCAT/GLOMAP’ – 2.8 x 2.8 x 30 mins 2 years Varies Hector / 32 CPU 110 coupled tropospheric L31 (MPI) (55 hours per chemistry/aerosols year) ‘TOMCAT’ simple 1.1 x 1.1 x 15 mins 10 years Varies Hector / 32 CPU 60 idealised tracers L60 (6 hours per year) Land JULES2.0 1º land grid ~30mins ~10 years A few 10s of MB Sun / 1 ~48 ~2 days

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JULES including ED and 2-3 1 hour 100 years Approx 1TB UNIX cluster About 70 3-5 days SPITFIRE... GLOBAL degrees 4 nodes RUN MEGAN v2.04 0.5°x0.5° 1 hour 1 year 9 Gb/tracer/year PC / 1 1 1 hour global Land C-cycle CCDAS N24L11 60 mins 100 years 26MB QUEST linux 192 1 day version XDBUA – atmos atmos, 12 cluster / 8 atmosphere, ocean, 2.5x3.75L2 hours ocean NPZD biogeochemistry, 0 ocean fixed vegetation, fixed atmospheric CO2 Hybrid6.5 1/4° lat/lon 30 mins 100 years 0.5GB Darwin / 2340 106 5 hours cores (use 22) SIMEARTH 1.0 10 regions, 1 month 200 years 0.5 MB PC 0.5 0.5 hours global SDGVM 070607 Global 1 1 day 600 years (500 40 MB for Yearly Personal PC, 100 25 hours degree spin-up + 100) (optionally, Quad core, using 16,000 monthly and parallel mode sites. daily are available, along with outputs other than the default) Oceans NEMO ¼° global model 1/4 °, 64 24 mins 50 years 0.4 TB HECTOR/ 321 200,000 hours 30 days for 50 levels in the processors per 50 year run year run vertical 1D - GOTM ~2-5m in 200’’ 1 -10 years ~ 50 MB Desktop 5’/year 5’/year vertical POLCOMS-ERSEM AMM 1/6ox/19o 5min physics 45-years 62GB HECTOR/512 100,000 8 days 20min ecosystem Atlantic margin- 1/10 20’ 50+ ~100GB PML Cluster/ 64 600/year 12h/year POLCOMS degree

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POLCOMS 1/20° x 5 secs 6 months 240GB HECToR/128 640 6 hours 1/40° (barotropic);2 (South mins Georgia (baroclinic) shelf and adjacent ocean) GCOMS- ERSEM 1/10 20’ 6*12 yrs 6*100GB HECTOR / 1000 600/year/domain 6h/year/domain POLCOMS degree Western channel 1 nm 10’ 5yr ~100GB PML Cluster / 64 1500/year 30h/year ERSEM NEMO Global 1 1h Decadal ~ 300GB PML Cluster / 800/year 15h/year degree 128 Western Channel + 7km 20’ 1 yr ~ 1 TB PML Cluster / 64 60/year/ensembl 1 hr /year Ensemble Kalman Filter e data assimilation Requires (50-100 ensembles) PlankTOM5 2° * 1.1° 1.6 hours 153 0.5TB HECTOR / linux 10000 27 days *31 levels cluster 16 PlankTOM10 2° * 1.1° 1.6 hours 153 0.6TB HECTOR / linux 15000 38 days *31 levels cluster 16 Ice sheets and shelves GLIMMER EISMINT 2 61 x 61 x 5 years 200,000 years ~1MB Intel Xeon 5140 412seconds 412s scenario A (see Payne et 11 processor (64 bit, al. 2000). 2.33GHz), with Thermomechanical, 4GB of RAM. shallow ice BASISM1.3 2.5km 50years 100000 years 150GB AMD 8core 24 8 hours Sea ice CICE regional Arctic ORCA1: 1° 1 hour 50 years 54 MB Apple MacPro 8 72 24hrs standalone Tripolar core running grid OSX Server

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NEMO-CICE regional ORCA1: 1° 1 hour 44 years 400 MB Apple MacPro 8 144 48hrs Arctic Tripolar core running grid OSX Server NEMO-LIM2 global ORCA1: 1° 1 hour 44 years 3 GB UCL Legion 160 40hrs Tripolar cluster / 64 grid nodes used MICOM-CICE 0.4 deg 15 mins 40 years 60GB BAS HADES/1 2400 100 days (Bellingsha (baroclinic) usen Sea) Solid Earth TERRA (Circulation 12.5km >10,000 yrs 120 M Yrs 60 GB HECTOR / 512 24*512 1 days model – with LBR plate globally files, mt=512/256) throughout mantle TERRA (convection, 12.5km >10,000 yrs 3.5 G Yrs 60GB * number HECTOR / 512 24*512*30 30 days mt=512/256) globally of dumps throughout mantle

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E. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AQ Air Quality AR Assessment Report (IPCC) BAS British Antarctic Survey BASISM British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model BETHY Biosphere-Energy-Transfer-Hydrology (model) BFG Bespoke Framework Generator BFM Biogeochemical Flux Model BGS Britsh Geological Survey BLASIUS Boundary Layer Above Stationary, Inhomogeneous Uneven Surfaces BRIDGE Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment CABLE CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange CAM-CHEM Community Atmosphere Model - Chemistry CCDAS Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System CCMVal Chemistry-Climate Model Validation CCSM Community Climate System Model CEH Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CHIME Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment CICE Community Ice CodE (Los Alamos Sea Ice Model) CLM Community Land Model CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (France) CPOM Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia) CTM Chemical Transport Model DAEM Data and Applications for Environmental Modelling DAMTP Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics DGVM Dynamic Global Vegetation Model Diat-HadOCC Diatom - Hadley Center Ocean Carbon Cycle DMS Dimethyl Sulphide DMSP Dimethylsulphoniopropionate DRAKKAR European informal consortium DWD Deutsch Wetterdienst ECHAM Global Climate Model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECOSSE Estimating Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions ED Ecosystem Dynamics (vegetation model) EMIC Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity EPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council ERSEM European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model 88 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

ESM Earth System Model(ling) ESMF Earth System Modeling Framework ESSC Environmental Systems Science Centr EU European Union FAMOUS Fast-running climate model based on HadCM3 FLUME FLexible Unified Model Environment FP Framework Programme FRSGC/UCI Frontier Research System for Global Change/University of California Irvine FRUGAL Fine ResolUtion Greenland And Labrador sea intermediate complexity model FTE Full Time Equivalent FUN Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen FVCOM Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model GCM Global Circulation Model GCOMS Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System GENIE Grid-ENabled Integrated Earth system model GENIEfy Grid-ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework for the community' GEOS-CHEM Global and regional atmospheric chemistry transport model GHG GreenHouse Gas GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies GLIMMER-CISM GENIE Land Ice Model with Multiply Enabled Regions – Community Ice Sheet Model GLOMAP Global Model of Aerosol Processes GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security GNU LGPL GNU Lesser General Public License GODAE Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment GOLD Generalised Ocean Layer Dynamics (model) GOTM Generalised Ocean Layer Dynamics GPL General Public License HadAM Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model HadCM3 Hadley Centre Coupled Model3 HadGAM Hadley Centre Global Atmosphere Model HadGEM Hadley Centre Global Environment Model HadOCC Hadley Centre Ocean Carbon Cycle HadOM Hadley Centre Ocean Model HECToR High-End Computing Terascale Resource HiGAM High resolution Global Atmosphere Model HIGEM High resolution Global Environment Model HOMME High Order Method Modeling Environment HPC High Performance Computing 89 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

HRCM High Resolution Climate Modelling programme HYBRID A dynamic global vegetation model HYCOM Hybrid-Coordinate Ocean Model I/O Input/output ICOM Imperial College Ocean Model IGCM Intermediate complexity Global Circulation Model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPR Intellectual Property Rights IPY International Polar Year JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology JSBACH Jena Scheme for Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg JULES Joint UK Land Environment Simulator JWCRP Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme KMA Korea Meteorological Administration KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut LANL Los Alamos National Laboratory LEM Large Eddy Model LIM Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model LIS Land Information System LOBSTER NEMO biogeochemical model LPJ “Lund-Potsdam-Jena” vegetation model LSCE Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement MEDUSA Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation and SequestrAtion MEGAN Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature MICOM Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology MITgcm Massachusetts Institute of Technology Global Circulation Model MO Met Office MOC Meridional Overturning Circulation MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre MOM Modular Ocean Model MORPH3 Model for improved Regional Prediction – HadGEM3 MOSES Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme MOZART Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers MPI Max Planck Institute MPI Message Passing Interface NC National Capability NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) NCAS National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences

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NCAS-CMS National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences – Computational Modelling Support NCEO National Centre for Earth Observation NCOF National Centre for Ocean Forecasting NEMO Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean NERC Natural Environment Research Council NOCS National Oceanography Centre Southampton NOPP National Ocean Partnership Program NPZD Nutrient Phytoplankton Zooplankton Detritus NSF National Science Foundation (USA) NUGAM Nippon-UK Global Atmosphere Model NUGEM Nippon-UK Global Environment Model NWP Numerical Weather Prediction OAPP Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford OASIS Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil; a distributed O-AGCM coupler developed at CERFACS. OPA Ocean model in NEMO ORCHIDEE French Global Land Surface Model OU Open University PDRA Post Doctoral Research Assistant PFT Plant Functional Type PI Principal Investigator PISCES NEMO biogeochemical model PlankTOM Plankton Types Ocean Model PML Plymouth Marine Laboratory POL Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory POLCOMS Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System ProWAM Third generation Wave Model p-SLIMCAT Three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (CTM), polar version PUMA umui PUMA machine Unified Model User Interface QESM QUEST Earth System Model QUAAC QUEST Atmospheric Aerosols and Chemistry QUEST Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System RAPID Rapid Climate Change programme, NERC, also RAPID-RAPIT RM Responsive Mode RP Research Programme SDGVM Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model SIA Shallow Ice Approximation SIMEARTH an Earth system model of intermediate complexity SLIMCAT Three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (CTM) 91 NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009

SPARC Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate SPITFIRE Spread and Intensity of Fire Emissions STOCHEM 3D lagrangian tropospheric chemistry model SUNR Sustainable Use of Natural Resources SVN Subversion (software) SWAM 3rd generation wave model intended for shallow water TDT Coupling framework, PIK THCMIP Thermohaline Circulation Model Intercomparison Experiment TM2 Global Atmospheric Tracer Model TOMCAT Three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (CTM) TRIFFID Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics UCL University College London UEA University of East Anglia UJCC UK Japan Climate Collaboration UKCA UK Chemistry Aerosol community model UKCP09 UK Climate Projections 09 UM Unified Model UoR University of Reading UViC University of Victoria, Canada, EMIC VOC Volatile Organic Compound VOCALS-UK Vamos Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study - UK WACCM Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model WAM Wave Model WCRP World Climate Research Programme WRF Weather Research and Forecast model

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