UPDATE TO DAIRY ROAD DEMOGRAPHIC AND COMMUNITY NEEDS ASSESSMENT
FINAL REPORT Prepared for AUGUST 2018 Molonglo Group
© SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2018 This report has been prepared for Molonglo Group. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 East Lake and Dairy Road context 1 1.2 Molonglo Group’s proposed development 4 1.3 This report 4
2. PLANNING AND POLICY CONTEXT 6
2.1 Territory Plan 6 2.2 National Capital Plan 7 2.3 ACT Government policies, reports and initiatives 8
3. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 13
3.1 Catchment area 13 3.2 Existing population characteristics 13 3.3 Dwelling characteristics 21
4. SUPPLY OF FACILITIES AND SERVICES 28
4.1 Existing supply of services and facilities 28 4.2 Desired standards of service for community facilities 38 4.3 Distribution of Community Facility Zoned land 40
5. DEMAND FOR FACILITIES AND SERVICES 42
5.1 Demographic impacts on demand from Dairy Road 42 5.2 Demographic impacts of development elsewhere in East Lake 43 5.3 Demand for community facilities and services 45
6. KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 54
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: DAIRY ROAD SITE IMMEDIATE CONTEXT 1 FIGURE 2: DAIRY ROAD SITE IN SOUTH CANBERRA CONTEXT 2 FIGURE 3: EAST LAKE URBAN RENEWAL AREA 3 FIGURE 4: DAIRY ROAD CONCEPT PLAN 4 FIGURE 5: DAIRY ROAD SITE CURRENT ZONING 6 FIGURE 6: FYSHWICK PRECINCT MAP AND CODE 7 FIGURE 7: NATIONAL CAPITAL PLAN SUBJECT AREAS 8 FIGURE 8: PRECINCT A AS IDENTFIED IN EAST LAKE DRAFT PLANNING REPORT, 2007 10 FIGURE 9: DAIRY ROAD SITE AND CATCHMENT USED FOR ANALYSIS 13 FIGURE 10: AGE PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS 14
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FIGURE 11: AGE PROFILE, 2016 CENSUS 14 FIGURE 12: AGE AND GENDER PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS 15 FIGURE 13: RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, 2016 CENSUS 17 FIGURE 14: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, CATCHMENT AREA, 2011-2016 17 FIGURE 15: INDIGENOUS POPULATION, 2016 CENSUS 18 FIGURE 16: RESIDENT INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT (1-DIGIT LEVEL), 2016 CENSUS 19 FIGURE 17: POST-SCHOOL QUALIFICATIONS, 2016 CENSUS 19 FIGURE 18: WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, 2016 CENSUS 20 FIGURE 19: HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 2016 CENSUS 21 FIGURE 20: DWELLING TYPES, 2016 CENSUS 21 FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF USUAL RESIDENTS, 2016 CENSUS 23 FIGURE 22: DWELLING TENURE, 2016 CENSUS 23 FIGURE 23: MONTHLY MORTGAGE REPAYMENTS, 2016 CENSUS 25 FIGURE 24: WEEKLY RENTS, 2016 CENSUS 25 FIGURE 25: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES, 2009-2017 26 FIGURE 26: MEDIAN UNIT PRICES, 2009-2017 27 FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES, 2016 CENSUS 27 FIGURE 28: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – PRIMARY SCHOOLS 32 FIGURE 29: OTHER GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS LOCATED WITHIN CATCHMENT SUBURBS 33 FIGURE 30: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – HIGH SCHOOLS 34 FIGURE 31: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS - COLLEGES 35 FIGURE 32: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS IN CATCHMENT AREA 36 FIGURE 33: GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, 2016 CENSUS 37 FIGURE 34: TERRITORY PLAN LAND USE ZONES IN AREAS AROUND DAIRY ROAD 41 FIGURE 35: LOCATION OF ACT ARTS FACILITIES 47
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION GROWTH, 2006-2017 15 TABLE 2: PROJECTED POPULATION TO 2031 16 TABLE 3: PROPORTION OF RESIDENTS BORN OVERSEAS, 2016 CENSUS 16 TABLE 4: LABOUR FORCE STATUS, 2016 CENSUS 18 TABLE 5: DWELLING OCCUPANCY TYPE, 2016 CENSUS 22 TABLE 6: PROPORTION OF DWELLINGS - PUBLIC AND COMMUNITY HOUSING, 2016 CENSUS 24 TABLE 7: NUMBER OF PUBLIC HOUSING DWELLINGS, 2014 TO 2017 24 TABLE 8: EXISTING FACILITIES AND SERVICES IN CATCHMENT SUBURBS 28 TABLE 9: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS FOR GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 2019 32 TABLE 10: PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018 33 TABLE 11: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018 37 TABLE 12: DESIRED STANDARDS OF SERVICE FOR COMMUNITY FACILITIES 39 TABLE 13: COMMUNITY FACILITY ZONED (CFZ) LAND IN THE ACT 40 TABLE 14: PROJECTED POPULATION OF DAIRY ROAD 42 TABLE 15: PROJECTED AGE PROFILE OF DAIRY ROAD RESIDENTS 43
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TABLE 16: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MAXIMUM DWELLING NUMBERS AND POPULATION IN EAST LAKE 44 TABLE 17: ESTIMATED AGE PROFILE OF EAST LAKE RESIDENTS (EXCLUDING DAIRY ROAD) 44 TABLE 18: NUMBER OF POTENTIAL STUDENTS IN PEA CATCHMENT, 2016 48 TABLE 19: ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR SCHOOL PLACES FROM DAIRY ROAD 49
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1. INTRODUCTION
This section outlines the context surrounding the Dairy Road site, Molonglo Group’s plans for the development, and the purpose of this report.
1.1 East Lake and Dairy Road context
Dairy Road site The Molonglo Group’s Dairy Road site sits on Blocks 11 and 12, Section 38 Fyshwick, as shown in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1: DAIRY ROAD SITE IMMEDIATE CONTEXT
Source: SGS, 2018.
Figure 2 below shows the site within the suburb of Fyshwick and the wider South Canberra context. The site is in reasonably close proximity to both the Canberra Airport and Railway Station. Dairy Road currently houses a range of light industrial and commercial businesses, including the Australian Government’s COMCAR depot and Pickles Auctions. The site is also home to Capital Brewing Company, a number of small creative industry businesses, and new businesses catering to specialised recreational activities, such as BlocHaus and Vertikal Indoor Snowsports.
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FIGURE 2: DAIRY ROAD SITE IN SOUTH CANBERRA CONTEXT
Source: SGS, 2018.
East Lake The Dairy Road site is part of the East Lake Urban Renewal area, shown below in Figure 3. This area was identified as a potential future development location in 2004 in the Canberra Spatial Plan. Subsequent years have seen a number of planning studies undertaken for the site and its future development. The ACT Government’s vision is for the area to: “… become a lively, high-density urban community providing an Australian showcase of sustainable development. It is expected to provide a mix of housing choice in an environment of high quality open space and public realm, well connected to existing and new shops, employment opportunities, schools and other facilities.”1 Planning for the land at East Lake has undergone several iterations with different development scenarios put forward. Previous estimates have identified potential for up to 9,000 people to be accommodated in the area, with housing predominantly medium and higher density dwellings, and some industrial and commercial uses to be retained.
1 ACTPLA, 2007, ‘East Lake Urban Renewal,’ Fact Sheet, http://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/890991/East_Lake_Urban_Renewal.pdf
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FIGURE 3: EAST LAKE URBAN RENEWAL AREA
Source: ACTPLA, 2007.
Current planning and land release Planning for the development of the government-owned land at East Lake has been narrowed considerably from the study area shown in Figure 3, and is likely to include land adjacent the railway station and the Kingston Foreshore, fronting onto the Wetlands. Sites at East Lake have been put on the ACT Government’s current Indicative Land Release Program (ILRP), subject to Territory Plan Variations. In the 2020-21 financial year, 330 residential dwellings are slated for release, and a further 300 in the 2021-22 financial year.2
Jerrabomberra Wetlands Sustainability has also been an important aspect of the planning for East Lake, given its proximity to the Wetlands. The Wetlands Reserve covers around 200 hectares of land, and provides important habitat for local and migratory birds. The Wetlands is one of the most important wetland habitats in the ACT, and has an important role in Canberra’s biodiversity.3 In 2016 the ACT Government and Jerrabomberra Wetlands Management Committee produced a Concept Plan setting a strategy and design framework for the future of the Jerrabomberra Wetlands.4 The 2016 Concept Plan considers the relationship of the Reserve to future development in the East Lake area. The Jerrabomberra Wetlands Management Committee and the Molonglo Group have further collaborated to explore how the respective visions of the 2016 Wetlands Concept Plan, the vision for Dairy Road and the Government's vision for East Lake can be integrated. This integration study will guide and inform future built form, pedestrian and cycle connectivity, and capital works to protect existing habitats, develop additional terrestrial ecosystems and habitats, deliver world class visitor infrastructure, and develop environmental guidelines for capital works.
2 ACT Government, 2018, ‘Indicative Land Release Program 2018-19 to 2021-22.’ http://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1207295/Indicative-Land-Release-Program-2018-19.pdf 3 ACT Government, 2010, ‘Jerrabomberra Wetlands Nature Reserve Plan of Management 2010,’ https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/390673/WEB_Jerrabomberra_MP.pdf 4 See Woodlands and Wetlands Trust, 2018, ‘Enhancing,’ https://jerrabomberrawetlands.org.au/the-reserve/enhancing/
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1.2 Molonglo Group’s proposed development The proposed development site is bound by Dairy Road, the Monaro Highway, the railway line which links into Canberra’s railway station in Kingston, and the southern edge of the Jerrabomberra Wetlands. The Dairy Road development is expected to include mixed use facilities incorporating space for commercial premises, apartments and some town houses. The Concept Plan shown in Figure 4 provides an indicative layout for the site.
FIGURE 4: DAIRY ROAD CONCEPT PLAN
Source: Molonglo Group, 2018.
1.3 This report
Previous SGS report In 2016, SGS completed a Demographic and Community Needs Assessment for the Molonglo Group, which considered the potential impact of the Dairy Road development on demand for a range of community facilities and services in the area. This was included as part of the Molonglo Group’s application to rezone the site.
Current report and context As part of the process of obtaining support from the ACT Government for the required Territory Plan Variation (TPV) for the site, a revised and updated community needs assessment is needed. This report updates SGS previous report in light of the current planning context, new demographic data from the 2016 Census and other sources, and updated school enrolment information. This report also addresses comments provided by ACT Government Directorates on the previous report.
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Report structure The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
▪ Section 2 describes the existing policy and planning context relevant to the site, with reference to ACT and Commonwealth Government policies. ▪ Section 3 outlines the demographic profile and characteristics of existing residents and households in the areas surrounding Dairy Road. ▪ Section 4 details the exiting supply of services and facilities around Dairy Road and expected standards of service. ▪ Section 5 considers the level of demand for facilities and services likely to be generated by Dairy Road. ▪ Section 6 summarises SGS’ key findings and recommendations.
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2. PLANNING AND POLICY CONTEXT
This section describes the existing policy and planning context for the site, with reference to relevant ACT and Commonwealth Government policies.
2.1 Territory Plan
Current zoning The Dairy Road Site is currently zoned as IZ1 – General Industrial, as shown in Figure 5 below. Residential uses are currently prohibited development under this zone. The IZ1 zoning aims to provide for industrial activities and related businesses over higher rent commercial office and retail uses.
FIGURE 5: DAIRY ROAD SITE CURRENT ZONING
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
Proposed rezoning The Molonglo Group is proposing to rezone the Dairy Road site from the current IZ1 to CZ5 – Mixed Use. This would allow for a mix of compatible land uses including residential development. The objectives of the CZ5 zone are:
▪ To encourage higher density residential development in locations with convenient access to transport corridors, and commercial and employment centres ▪ Create an efficient and sustainable urban environment and provide for a diversity of living, working and recreation opportunities ▪ Maintain and enhance environmental amenity and undertake development using best practice environmentally sustainable development principles ▪ Encourage a standard of urban design that is consistent with selected major avenues, approach routes and other strategically located areas ▪ Encourage activities particularly at street frontage level that contribute to an active public realm
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▪ Promote active living and active travel ▪ Provide a high quality public realm by facilitating active uses on ground floor levels, that connect with the wider open space, pedestrian and cycle networks to promote active travel and active living, and ▪ Provide a mixture of compatible land uses and integrate suitable business, office, residential, retail and other development in accessible locations so as to encourage walking and cycling, and maximise public transport patronage.
Fyshwick Precinct Map and Code The Dairy Road site sits within the area covered by the Fyshwick Precinct Map and Code under the Territory Plan, shown below in Figure 6. However, there are no additional rules or criteria which apply to the site itself. Land to the north, east and south of the site are subject to extra requirements regarding their use for industry and agriculture.
FIGURE 6: FYSHWICK PRECINCT MAP AND CODE
Source: ACT Government, 2016.5
2.2 National Capital Plan The Dairy Road site is not identified as a designated area under the National Capital Plan. However, some areas adjacent to the site are covered by specific NCA provisions, as illustrated below in Figure 7. The Wetlands adjacent the site to the north west are part of the National Central Area, while the Monaro Highway to the south east is designated under the Main Avenues and Approach Routes zoning. In regard to the latter, some special requirements apply to the land shown in
5 ACT Government, 2016, ‘Fyshwick Precinct Map and Code,’ effective 19 August 2016, http://www.legislation.act.gov.au/ni/2008-27/copy/110379/pdf/2008-27.pdf
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pink which flanks the Monaro Highway, primarily that any development in these areas should seek to enhance the character and quality of their surrounds.
FIGURE 7: NATIONAL CAPITAL PLAN SUBJECT AREAS
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
2.3 ACT Government policies, reports and initiatives
ACT Planning Strategy (2012) The ACT Planning Strategy is the guiding document for the development of the ACT to 2030.6 The Strategy will undergo a review in 2018.7 A focus of the Strategy is the development and intensification of development within Civic, town and group centres, and along key transport corridors, building on the established structure of the city to become more sustainable and compact. The strategy emphasises the importance of access to a range of community, sport and recreational facilities and services for all residents, particularly in providing opportunities for social interaction. Finding opportunities for the incorporation of community facilities within mixed use developments is identified as a specific action. There are also some specific actions identified for East Lake. These include short term actions to:
▪ Continue the development of Kingston Foreshore and prioritise development of East Lake to establish an exemplary sustainable development ▪ Commence land use investigation to address the benefits of extending rapid transport to East Lake amongst other options, and ▪ Continue investment in cycle and pedestrian routes for new developments at East Lake, and other areas of Canberra.
6 ACT Government, 2012, ‘ACT Planning Strategy – Planning for a Sustainable City,’ https://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/895076/2012_Planning_Strategy.pdf 7 See Burdon, 2018, ‘ACT Government to review territory’s planning strategy this year: Mick Gentleman,’ Canberra Times, 16 February, https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/act-government-to-review-territorys-planning-strategy-this- year-mick-gentleman-20180216-h0w7ms.html
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A longer term action identified in the Strategy is to construct schools in new residential areas where urban intensification is occurring, with East Lake identified as one of these areas.
Minister’s Statement of Planning Intent (2015) The Minister’s 2015 Statement of Planning Intent outlines the planning priorities for Canberra in the immediate, short and medium term of up to 5 years.8 In the development of the Statement, consultation identified the need for inclusive neighbourhoods, with a range of housing choices and community facilities, and a need to cater to all socio-demographic groups. Among the key priorities of the Statement are the creation of sustainable, compact and liveable neighbourhoods with better transport choices, and the delivery of high quality public spaces and streets through placemaking. Ensuring the quality of public spaces and streets was identified as a primary consideration for urban renewal areas.
Canberra Social Plan (2011) The 2011 Canberra Social Plan built on the previous 2004 Plan, and a commitment by the ACT Government to build a strong, vibrant and inclusive community. The vision of the Social Plan is for Canberra to be a place where all people reach their potential, make a contribution and share the benefits of an inclusive community. The Plan identifies that the ACT has a higher rate of attendance at sporting and cultural events than the Australian average, and that more than half of the population are registered library users. Key issues identified in the Plan include the need to help particular individuals and groups with their specific needs, cost of living pressures, and affordability of renting or owning housing. Reducing car dependence, making communities more resilient to economic and environmental shocks, and addressing obesity and chronic disease are also identified in the Plan. Commitments made in the Plan include for investment in community infrastructure which promotes connection and allows for diverse activities, for more flexible use of schools, libraries and other civic places, and the provision of common facilities which can cater to a wide range of activities, such as art, sport or recreation.
Indicative Land Release Program 2018-19 to 2021-22 In addition to the sites identified for release at East Lake, there are other sites near to Dairy Road scheduled for release. These include:
▪ Griffith and Narrabundah: 2018-19 – sites for 484 and 177 dwellings respectively, on RZ5 High Density Residential land, and ▪ Kingston: 2021-22 – sites for 685 dwellings and 30,900 square metres for mixed use on CZ5 Mixed Use land adjacent to the existing Kingston Foreshore. Further industrial land release is also planned for Fyshwick in 2021-22 (20,000 square metres, subject to TPV).9
East Lake Urban Renewal Draft Planning Report (2007) The most recent publicly available detailed planning report concerning the development of the East Lake area was prepared in 2007. This report summarised the site investigations previously undertaken for the East Lake site, and the expectations for the area following consultation with Government agencies and the community. The report was intended to provide a basis for broader consultation and testing of objectives. At the time of the report, the ACT Government was seeking to formalise a partnership with the CSIRO to make East Lake
8 ACT Government, 2015, ‘Statement of Planning Intent 2015,’ https://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/898278/Statement_of_Planning_Intent_2016-web- Access.pdf 9 ACT Government, 2018, ‘Indicative Land Release Program 2018-19 to 2022-22.’
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a showcase for sustainable development. The report identified the Dairy Road site as part of Precinct A, shown below in Figure 8.
FIGURE 8: PRECINCT A AS IDENTFIED IN EAST LAKE DRAFT PLANNING REPORT, 2007
Source: ACTPLA, 2007.10
The specific intentions for the development of this part of East Lake were for:
▪ Intensified uses at the Wetlands Foreshore Business Park to capitalise on the site’s proximity to Fyshwick and the Monaro Highway ▪ Expanded education development on Dairy Road to enhance community use and appreciation of the environmental values and quality of the Jerrabomberra Wetlands ▪ Increased tourism and recreational uses, and ▪ Opportunities to reuse wastewater and effluent from the Fyshwick Sewage Treatment Plant. The Report also recommended the exclusion of residential dwellings and restaurants or cafes from the precinct due to concerns over the potential for odour impacts from the treatment works. However, both the treatment works and the Dairy Road industrial complex have been in operation since the 1960s and odour has never presented an issue to the operations at Dairy Road. In mid-2018, the Molonglo Group worked collaboratively with the Environment Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate (EPSDD), the Environment Protection Authority and ICON Water to scope out and undertake an air quality and odour impact assessment to allay concerns about potential odour impacts. That assessment has been separately submitted as part of the supporting documentation for the proposed rezoning.
Climate change and greenhouse gas emissions The ACT Government has introduced new targets to limit the Territory’s greenhouse gas emissions. These include a target of zero net emissions by 2045, as well as:
▪ 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 ▪ 50-60% below 1990 levels by 2025 ▪ 65-75% below 1990 levels by 2030, and
10 ACTPLA, 2007, ‘East Lake Urban Renewal – Draft Planning Report,’ September 2007, https://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/890992/East_Lake_Draft_Planning_Report.pdf
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▪ 90-95% below 1990 levels by 2040.11 A Discussion Paper informing the preparation of the ACT’s next climate strategy identifies that appropriate land for future housing development will be important to achieving these targeted reductions.12 This includes through creating a compact urban form with short distances between destinations, and facilitating quality urban infill and redevelopment projects.
Affordable Housing Action Plan The Affordable Housing Action Plan Phase III (2011) outlined initiatives to improve housing affordability levels in the ACT. The key actions under the Plan focused on:
▪ Increasing the supply of rental accommodation ▪ Better utilising existing sites – including consideration of options for facilitating residential development on underutilised community facility land ▪ Relieving blockages to affordable purchase, and ▪ Delivering short term accommodation. More recently, the ACT Government has indicated that to meet housing need objectives, targets for public, community and affordable housing will be identified for residential releases in greenfield estates and identified urban renewal sites. For 2018-19, the ACT Government has set a target of 552 dedicated public, community and affordable dwelling sites, including 60 public housing dwelling sites and 20 community housing sites13.
Kingston Arts Precinct The Kingston Arts Precinct (KAP) is located in reasonably close proximity to Dairy Road, and will eventually house a number of arts organisations.14 The KAP already includes glassworks (in the former Power House building), the Fitters’ Workshop and the Old Bus Depot Markets. A winning tender was announced for development of the Kingston Arts Precinct in early 2017. The tender documents and masterplan for this site include an apartment building with around 150 units, about 7,000 square metres of arts facilities, a 4,000 square metre outdoor events space, retail and commercial development and office space. There is also provision for a hotel and child care centre.15 The KAP Strategy (2011) identifies a vision for the precinct to be dynamic, inspirational, and energetic, and a place where artists, cultural organisations and creative businesses make, teach, exhibit, perform and sell their work. It has been planned to be the ACT’s destination of choice for visual arts and culture.16 The arts and cultural activities within Dairy Road are envisaged by the Molonglo Group to complement rather than compete with the KAP. Dairy Road incorporates 20,000 square metres of existing industrial space within eight buildings. These buildings are to be retained as part of the future development. Such space is particularly rare in Canberra. It affords the opportunity for relatively low cost space for artisans, creative makers and innovators. It should be noted that the provision of such space is not dependent upon a rezoning of the land. The existing IZ1 General Industry zoning permits light industry and craft workshops.
11 Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate (EPSDD), 2018, ‘Nation’s climate action capital sets world-leading environmental targets,’ https://www.environment.act.gov.au/home/latest_news/nations-climate-action- capital-sets-world-leading-environmental-targets 12 ACT Government, 2017, ‘ACTs Climate Strategy to a net xero emissions territory,’ Discussion Paper, December 2017, https://www.yoursay.act.gov.au/application/files/6915/1305/0361/2017_ACT_Climate_Change_Strategy.pdf 13 ACT Indicative Land Release Program, 2018-19 to 2021-22. 14 Suburban Land Agency, 2018, ‘Kingston Arts Precinct,’ https://suburbanland.act.gov.au/kingston/kingston-arts-precinct 15 Lawson, 2017, ‘Geocon-led group wins tender to develop Kingston Arts Precinct,’ Canberra Times, 8 February, https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/geoconled-group-wins-tender-to-develop-kingston-arts-precinct- 20170208-gu84y6.html 16 Conroy et al., 2011, ‘Kingston Arts Precinct Strategy,’ prepared for artsACT, Chief Minister’s Department, March 2011, https://www.arts.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/527753/Kingston-Arts-Precinct-Strategy-Report.pdf
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Refurbishment of the existing buildings at Dairy Road is already underway and has already attracted a number of creative and innovative tenants.
ACT Healthy Waterways Project The ACT Healthy Waterways Project is a joint initiative of the Australian and ACT Governments to protect and improve long term water quality in the ACT and the Murrumbidgee River system. It includes the construction of a range of infrastructure including ponds and wetlands to reduce the amount of nutrients, sediment and pollutants entering waterways. Included in the projects funded through this initiative are wetlands in Eyre Street, Kingston, and wetlands associated with Jerrabomberra Creek and between Matina Creek and the Monaro Highway. These wetlands were all at the final design stage in mid-2018.17
17 See www.environment.act.gov.au
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3. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
This section outlines the demographic profile and characteristics of residents and households in the area around Dairy Road.
3.1 Catchment area A catchment area for the demographic analysis for Dairy Road has been identified, and consists of the suburbs of Barton, Kingston, Griffith, Narrabundah and Fyshwick, as illustrated in Figure 9 below.
FIGURE 9: DAIRY ROAD SITE AND CATCHMENT USED FOR ANALYSIS
Source: SGS, 2018.
These suburbs have been chosen as they are the areas that are closest to and most likely to be affected by development at the site. The potential impact of the development on suburbs further afield in the South Canberra area, such as Forrest and Red Hill, for issues such as planning for schools, are considered separately in Section 5 of this report.
3.2 Existing population characteristics
Age and gender
Age profile Figure 10 below shows the age profile of residents in the catchment area as of the 2016 Census. The catchment has a high proportion of people in the 25-29 years and 30-34 years age group, making up around 22% of the total population.
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FIGURE 10: AGE PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Figure 11 compares this age profile to the South Canberra district and the wider ACT. This illustrates that this area has a higher proportion of people in the 20-39 years age bracket (35.4%), and comparatively fewer children (17.4%) than both the district (19.9%) and the ACT (24.9%). The catchment suburbs also have a lower proportion of older people (14.4%) than South Canberra overall (17.0%), but this proportion is slightly higher than for the wider ACT (12.6%).
FIGURE 11: AGE PROFILE, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Age by gender Figure 12 below shows the age profile of the catchment area by gender. Around 51% of the catchment’s population were female in 2016. There were a higher proportion of males in the age groups under 24 years of age, with higher proportions of females compared to males in the 25-29 years and older (80+ years) age groups in particular.
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FIGURE 12: AGE AND GENDER PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Population growth
Recent population growth The growth of the estimated resident population in the catchment suburbs, South Canberra and across the ACT between 2006 and 2017 is shown below in Table 1. Over this period, the population in the catchment suburbs grew from around 13,000 to 16,800, an increase of 32.1%. This rate is much higher than the 19.8% growth in South Canberra and 22.4% across the ACT in the same timeframe.
TABLE 1: ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION GROWTH, 2006-2017
ERP 2006 ERP 2017 Change 2006-2017 % change 2006- 2017 Barton 1,016 1,498 506 49.8% Fyshwick 46 55 9 19.6% Griffith 4,110 4,688 733 17.8% Kingston 2,562 4,645 2,749 107.3% Narrabundah 5,719 5,997 319 5.6% Catchment 13,453 16,883 4,316 32.1% South Canberra 23,792 27,663 4,719 19.8% ACT 335,170 403,468 75,131 22.4% Source: ABS, 2017 and 2018.18
The rate and amount of population growth over this time varied substantially between the suburbs in the catchment. Kingston had easily the largest amount and rate of growth, doubling its population over this time. This is likely the result of the development of the
18 ABS, 2017, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016, Cat. No. 3218.0, released 28 July, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/3218.02016?OpenDocument; ABS, 2018, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, Cat. No. 3218.0, released 24 April, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/3218.02016-17?OpenDocument;
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Kingston Foreshore, whereas large scale redevelopment has not occurred to the same extent in the other suburbs in the catchment.
Projected population growth Table 2 shows the projected population of the catchment suburbs, South Canberra and the ACT to 2031. By 2031, there are expected to be an additional 3,560 people living within the catchment area, an increase of 23% from the estimated population in 2016.
TABLE 2: PROJECTED POPULATION TO 2031
SA2/Suburb 2016 2021 2026 2031 Change 2016- % change 2031 2016-2031 Barton 1,500 1,650 1,750 1,800 300 20% Fyshwick 40 50 410 1,350 1,310 3,275% Griffith 4,200 4,300 4,450 4,650 450 11% Kingston 4,100 4,700 5,000 5,200 1,100 27% Narrabundah 5,950 6,050 6,200 6,350 400 7% Catchment 15,790 16,750 17,810 19,350 3,560 23% South Canberra 26,590 28,450 30,460 32,900 6,310 24% ACT 399,900 430,400 462,800 493,500 93,600 23% Source: EPD projections, 2014, unpublished.
This growth is comparable to the expected growth across the South Canberra district and the wider ACT. The growth rate within the catchment is expected to differ, with Fyshwick having the highest overall growth over this period due to its small existing population. Higher rates of growth are expected in Kingston and Barton compared to Griffith and Narrabundah.
Country of birth Table 3 shows the proportion of residents in the catchment who were born overseas, compared to South Canberra and the ACT, and the top 5 countries of birth for each.
TABLE 3: PROPORTION OF RESIDENTS BORN OVERSEAS, 2016 CENSUS
% born overseas Top 5 countries Catchment 34.2% England, New Zealand, India, USA, Germany South Canberra 33.2% England, India, China, New Zealand, USA ACT 32.0% England, China, India, New Zealand, Philippines Source: ABS 2016 Census.
The catchment area has a slightly higher proportion of people born overseas. England is the most common country of origin for each area.
Religious affiliation Figure 13 below shows the proportion of people who identified with a religion in the 2016 Census. This illustrates that the catchment area has a higher proportion of people with no religion or secular beliefs (41.4%) than both the wider South Canberra district (39.1%) and the ACT (36.8%). The catchment has lower levels of affiliation with Christianity (40.2% compared to 43.8% and 45.4% respectively) and other religions by comparison.
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FIGURE 13: RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Change in religion Figure 14 illustrates the broad change in religious affiliation in the catchment area between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses. Consistent with trends across the ACT and Australia, identification with secular or no religion has increased over this time.
FIGURE 14: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, CATCHMENT AREA, 2011-2016
Source: ABS 2011 and 2016 Censuses. *Note: Fyshwick population excluded in this calculation due to change in SA2 boundaries.
Indigenous population Figure 15 below shows the proportion of the population in the catchment area who identified as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander, or both, as of the Census, compared to South Canberra and the ACT.
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FIGURE 15: INDIGENOUS POPULATION, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
The catchment area has a slightly higher proportion of people identifying as Aboriginal (1.4%) than the wider South Canberra district (1.1%), but this proportion is lower than the rate across the ACT (1.5%). The catchment had a slightly higher proportion of people who identified as Torres Strait Islander (0.1%), and a similar proportion of people who identified as both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, with this proportion being very small. The proportion of people who identified as Indigenous also differs between suburbs in the catchment, with Narrabundah having a substantially higher proportion of people who identified as Aboriginal (2.5%) than the other suburbs.
Employment
Labour force status Table 4 shows the labour force status of people in the catchment area compared to South Canberra and the ACT. The catchment area has a higher rate of people employed full-time (42.7%) than South Canberra (38.4%) and the ACT overall (34.5%). The catchment area also has a smaller proportion of people who work part-time, are unemployed, and who are not in the labour force.
TABLE 4: LABOUR FORCE STATUS, 2016 CENSUS
Employed Employed Away from Unemployed Not in labour Not stated/ full-time part-time work force applicable Catchment 42.7% 11.1% 2.8% 2.2% 20.0% 21.2% South 38.4% 12.1% 2.6% 2.2% 23.1% 21.6% Canberra ACT 34.5% 14.4% 2.9% 2.6% 22.3% 23.4% Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Industry of employment The most common industry of employment for residents in the catchment area is Public Administration and Safety, as shown below in Figure 16. Employment in this industry is also
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more concentrated than for South Canberra and the ACT overall, accounting for 24.0% of resident jobs compared to 20% and 16% respectively.
FIGURE 16: RESIDENT INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT (1-DIGIT LEVEL), 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Professional Scientific and Technical Services is the next most common industry, representing 6.4% of resident jobs, similar to the rate for the South Canberra district. The catchment area has comparatively lower levels of employment in industries such as Manufacturing, Construction, Retail Trade, and Accommodation and Food Services compared to the wider ACT.
Education Figure 17 below shows the proportion of residents in each area with post-school qualifications.
FIGURE 17: POST-SCHOOL QUALIFICATIONS, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
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This illustrates that people living in the catchment are more likely to have Bachelor (24.7%), Graduate Diploma/Certificate (24.5%) and Postgraduate qualifications than the wider ACT. Conversely, the wider ACT has a higher rate of people with Diploma and Certificate level qualifications.
Household incomes Figure 18 shows the distribution of weekly household incomes across the catchment area, South Canberra and the ACT overall. This shows that the catchment had a relatively high rate of ‘not stated’ and ‘not applicable’ responses in the Census, as did the South Canberra districts.
FIGURE 18: WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Notwithstanding this, the catchment generally had a higher proportion of households earning more than $3,000 per week (24.7%) than across the ACT (22.9%), though this proportion was less than for the South Canberra district (27.7%).
Household composition Figure 19 below illustrates the household composition of the catchment area compared to South Canberra and the ACT as of the 2016 Census. Lone person households are the most common in the catchment area, with a higher proportion of these households (29.4%) compared to South Canberra (26.2%) and the wider ACT (21.7%). The catchment also has a slightly higher proportion of group households, at 5.3% compared to 4.3% and 4.2% respectively. The catchment has a much smaller proportion of couple households with children (15.5%) compared to South Canberra (19.1%) and particularly the wider ACT (28.7%). It also has a smaller proportion of couples without children, one parent families, and households with two or more families by comparison.
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FIGURE 19: HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
3.3 Dwelling characteristics
Dwelling types Figure 20 below illustrates the proportion of detached, semi-detached and apartment type dwellings in each area as at the 2016 Census.
FIGURE 20: DWELLING TYPES, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
The catchment area has a much higher proportion of flats, units or apartments, representing 59.2% of dwellings, compared to just 44.9% and 16.7% of dwellings in South Canberra and across the ACT respectively. Consequently, the catchment area has a much lower proportion of detached houses, at just 31.8% compared to 41.7% across South Canberra and 64.7% across the ACT. The catchment area also has a smaller proportion of semi-detached dwellings by comparison.
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Dwelling occupancy
Type of dwelling Table 5 below shows the proportion of dwellings of each occupancy type in the Census. The catchment area (also broken down by suburb) has a much higher proportion of unoccupied dwellings (14.7%) than the wider ACT (7.7%), and is similar to the proportion for South Canberra overall (14.5%).
TABLE 5: DWELLING OCCUPANCY TYPE, 2016 CENSUS
Occupied private Unoccupied private Non-private dwellings dwellings dwellings Barton 79.6% 19.6% 0.7% Fyshwick 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Griffith 83.5% 16.4% 0.2% Kingston 84.7% 15.3% 0.0% Narrabundah 88.7% 10.8% 0.4% Catchment 85.0% 14.7% 0.3% South Canberra 85.1% 14.5% 0.4% ACT 92.1% 7.7% 0.2% Source: ABS 2016 Census.
There is also variation between the suburbs within the catchment, with a higher rate of unoccupied dwellings in Barton in particular (19.6%) compared to Narrabundah (10.8%). This may be attributable to the proximity of the catchment to Parliament House, and indicative of a transient population associated with Parliamentary sessions.
Number of usual residents Figure 21 below illustrates the number of people usually resident in dwellings as of the 2016 Census. This shows that dwellings within the catchment area most commonly have one resident, accounting for 29.4% of dwellings, compared to 26.2% for South Canberra and 21.7% for the wider ACT. The catchment area also has a much lower proportion of households with three or more people (19.8%) compared to both South Canberra (23.8%) and the ACT (36.9%).
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FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF USUAL RESIDENTS, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Tenure Figure 22 shows the tenure types of dwellings in the catchment area compared to South Canberra and the ACT. Renting is the most common tenure type in the catchment area, making up 38.9% of dwellings. This is compared to 32.8% for South Canberra and 27.7% for the wider ACT.
FIGURE 22: DWELLING TENURE, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
A much smaller proportion of household owned their dwelling outright (16.7% compared to 22.7% and 23.8% respectively), and fewer households owned their dwellings with a mortgage (21.7%) than the rate for the ACT (33.6%).
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Public and community housing Table 6 shows the proportion of public and community housing dwellings in each area according to the 2016 Census.19
TABLE 6: PROPORTION OF DWELLINGS - PUBLIC AND COMMUNITY HOUSING, 2016 CENSUS
Public housing Community housing Catchment 5.6% 0.6% South Canberra 5.1% 0.5% ACT 5.3% 0.4% Source: ABS 2016 Census.
The catchment area at the time had a slightly higher proportion of both public housing (5.6%) and community housing (0.6%) dwellings compared to South Canberra and the ACT. The higher overall rate in the catchment was influenced by the substantial variation between the suburbs, with Narrabundah and Griffith having a much higher proportion of public housing (10.2% and 7.0% respectively) than the other suburbs. The proportion of public housing dwellings in the catchment area is likely to have been reduced since 2016, given the redevelopment of some larger public housing complexes.20 Data released publicly through a Freedom of Information Request, shown in Table 7 below, shows the following total number of public housing dwellings in the catchment suburbs as of June 2017. This shows a net decrease in the number across the catchment of 22 dwellings between 2014 and 2017, while across the ACT the number increased slightly.
TABLE 7: NUMBER OF PUBLIC HOUSING DWELLINGS, 2014 TO 2017
June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 Change 2014- 2017 Barton/Parkes 0 0 0 0 0 Fyshwick 0 0 0 0 0 Griffith 296 294 292 292 -4 Kingston 73 72 72 72 -1 Narrabundah 440 437 434 423 -17 Total catchment 809 803 798 787 -22 suburbs Total ACT 11,779 11,596 11,688 11,821 42 Source: Community Services Directorate, 2017.21
Housing costs
Monthly mortgage repayments Figure 23 shows the distribution of monthly mortgage repayments by households as of the 2016 Census.
19 These proportions may have changed since the Census, with the ongoing public housing renewal program in the ACT. However, the Census provides the most robust publicly available data at a detailed geographic level. 20 See, for example, Suburban Land Agency, 2018, ‘Future Projects,’ https://suburbanland.act.gov.au/urbanrenewal/future- projects. 21 Community Services Directorate, 2017, ‘Public Housing Stock by Suburb,’ FOI release, 22 November 2017, https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/1130724/Stock-by-Suburb-Report.pdf
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FIGURE 23: MONTHLY MORTGAGE REPAYMENTS, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census. *Note: Excludes ‘not applicable’ responses.
Of households who made mortgage repayments, a higher proportion of households in the catchment (29.5%) paid more than $3,000 a month than across the ACT (19.5%). The catchment had fewer households (11.7%) with repayment of less than $1,000 a month compared to South Canberra (13.2%) and the ACT (13.1%).
Weekly rents Figure 24 shows the distribution of weekly rents paid by households in 2016. Of the households who paid rents, there were a larger proportion of those in the catchment who paid more than $450 per week (42.1%) than across the ACT (29.3%), though this proportion was in line with the South Canberra district (43.8%).
FIGURE 24: WEEKLY RENTS, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census. *Note: Excludes ‘not applicable’ responses.
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A smaller proportion of households in the catchment area had weekly rents of less than $300 (18.6%) compared to South Canberra (21.0%) and the ACT overall (26.4%).
Property prices Figure 25 below shows the median sale price for houses in Griffith and Narrabundah between 2009 and 2017. The low number of detached house sales in the other suburbs means a median price for houses is not available. Over this period, prices have increased in both suburbs, though prices have been substantially higher in Griffith than Narrabundah, with the median for the former over $1.4 million in 2017.
FIGURE 25: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES, 2009-2017
Source: www.realestate.com.au, 2018.
Figure 26 below shows median unit prices for each of the suburb catchment suburbs, with the exception of Fyshwick (due to the low number of sales). As with houses, Narrabundah has generally had the lowest sale prices over this period, with units in Barton and Kingston generally the most expensive.
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FIGURE 26: MEDIAN UNIT PRICES, 2009-2017
Source: www.realestate.com.au, 2018.
Motor vehicle ownership Figure 27 below illustrates the number of cars owned by households as of the 2016 Census. Households in the catchment area are much more likely to own only one vehicle than households across South Canberra and the ACT, making up 40.5% of households compared to 35.9% and 33.0% respectively. The catchment also has a slightly higher proportion of households with no cars (5.9% compared to 5.4% and 4.9% respectively).
FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
Households in the catchment area are also much less likely to have three or more cars, accounting for only 5.8% of households, compared to 8.7% for South Canberra and 13.9% for the wider ACT.
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4. SUPPLY OF FACILITIES AND SERVICES
This section details the existing supply of services and facilities in the catchment area and expected standards of services for different catchment sizes.
4.1 Existing supply of services and facilities
Community services and facilities As most of the suburbs surrounding Dairy Road are well established, there are many existing community services and facilities available in nearby areas. Table 8 on the following pages shows the existing facilities within the catchment suburbs identified in the ACT Government’s ACTmapi database, with some information also collected from other sources. There are likely additional facilities and services (particularly private sector health and allied health services) not included in the ACTmapi database.
TABLE 8: EXISTING FACILITIES AND SERVICES IN CATCHMENT SUBURBS
TYPE SUBURB NAME Aged Accommodation/Care Barton Barton Aged Person's Units Kingston St Nicholas' Hostel St Nicholas' Home for the Aged Griffith Griffith Aged Persons' Units Baptist Care Narrabundah St Aidan's Court Upper Jindalee Nursing Home Mountain View Hostel Karingal Court Arts and Culture Barton St Mark's Library Kingston Canberra Glassworks Megalo Print Studio & Gallery Kingston Library Griffith Manuka Arts Centre Photo Access Chapman Art Gallery M16 Artspace Narrabundah Southside Gallery Goyder Street Community Library Fyshwick M16 Art Gallery Questacon Exhibitions for Hire Child Care Barton Birralee Education and Care Centre
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SDN Acacia Children's Education and Care Centre Only About Children Currawong Child Care Centre Telopea Park P&C School Age Care Program Kingston Honey Tree Early Childhood Centre Goodstart Learning Centre Griffith Manuka Occasional Child Care Centre Timeout Learning Centre Fun Fit Sports Vacation Care Narrabundah Narrabundah Early Childhood Service Narrabundah Children's Cottage YWCA St Benedict's After School Care Community Facilities Kingston Lone Fathers Association Australian Church Women Causeway Hall* Griffith Artsound FM The Rural Doctors Association of Australia DrinkWise Australia National Police Memorial South Canberra District Guide Hall Griffith Neighbourhood Hall Narrabundah Foster Care Association of the ACT Boomanulla Oval Southside Community Centre Grow ACT Fyshwick 1Way FM OzHelp Foundation Education Barton St Mark's Training College Telopea Park School Griffith Alejandr Malaspina Spanish Resource Centre St Edmund's College St Clare's College Om Shanti College Griffith Preschool Narrabundah Narrabundah Early Childhood School St Benedict's Primary School Narrabundah College Fyshwick CIT Health and Medical Kingston Wentworth Avenue Family Practice Kingston Family Surgery Morris Practice Griffith Oasis Medical Centre
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Bromley Group Family Practice Dr C Webber's Surgery Dr Elliot Simpson Paediatric Surgeon Men's Medical Clinic Narrabundah Narrabundah Family Medical Practice Winnunga Nimmityjah Aboriginal GP Clinic and Health Centre Hospitality and Sporting Clubs Barton Rugby Union Club National Press Club Griffith Canberra Services Club Eastern Suburbs Rugby Union and Amateur Sports Club Eastlake Football Club ACT Rugby Union Inc. Canberra South Bowling and Recreation Club Narrabundah Harmonie German Club Spanish-Australian Club Capital Golf Club Parks and Gardens Barton Telopea Park Bowen Park Kingston Causeway Neighbourhood Oval Sandalwood Street Neighbourhood Park Spinifex Street Neighbourhood Park Kingston Organic Community Garden Griffith Kingston Oval Griffith Oval Flinders Park Neighbourhood Oval Throsby Crescent Neighbourhood Park Narrabundah Narrabundah District Playing Fields Iluka Street Neighbourhood Park Errol Kavanagh Memorial Oval Narrabundah Community Garden Mill Creek Oval Places of Worship Barton Christian Science Church Canberra Masonic Centre Kingston Greek Orthodox Church of St Nicholas Canberra Baptist Church Griffith St Paul's Anglican Church Narrabundah St Aidan's Uniting Church Macedonian Orthodox Church St Kilment of Ohrid Buddhist Society of the ACT Pope John Paul II Polish Catholic Centre St Benedict's Catholic Church
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Lakeside Bible Church Russian Orthodox Church St John the Forerunner Russian Orthodox Church Fyshwick Vision Christian Fellowship Police and Emergency Services Fyshwick Fyshwick Fire and Ambulance Station Social and Welfare Assistance Griffith James & O'Brien Psychology Post & Ante Natal Depression Support and Information Belinda Barker Psychologist Elizabeth Allmand Counselling Services Fyshwick Canberra Recovery Services Centre Hands On Studio Salvation Army Sports and Recreation Barton Barton Tennis Club Griffith Manuka Swimming Pool Star Track Oval (Manuka Oval) Flinders Tennis Courts Canberra South Bowling Green ACT Table Tennis Centre Narrabundah Narrabundah Informal Use Oval Narrabundah Tennis Courts Narrabundah Velodrome Narrabundah Ballpark Fyshwick ACT Veterans Cycling Club Source: ACTmapi, 2018 and other sources identified by SGS. Note: the categorisation of facilities is generally as identified in the ACTmapi database. *Causeway Hall is undergoing refurbishment by the ACT Government, and does not appear to be available for existing community uses.
Schools and Priority Enrolment Areas
Government schools Figure 28 illustrates the Priority Enrolment Areas (PEA) for government primary schools in the catchment area. Students living in the suburbs of Fyshwick, Kingston, Griffith and part of Narrabundah have the choice between Forrest Primary and Red Hill Primary schools. The PEA school for Barton is Forrest Primary. Information on PEAs for relevant government primary schools in South Canberra for 2019 is also shown in Table 9.
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FIGURE 28: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – PRIMARY SCHOOLS
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.22
TABLE 9: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS FOR GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 2019
School PEA Description Forrest ▪ Barton Primary ▪ Deakin - eastern section School ▪ Forrest ▪ Fyshwick - is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Griffith - north of Caley Crescent and east of La Perouse Street is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Harman - is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Kingston - is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Narrabundah - east of Captain Cook Crescent and Jerrabomberra Avenue is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Oaks Estate - is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School ▪ Parkes ▪ Red Hill - North of Flinders Way ▪ Symonston - east of Monaro Highway is a shared PEA with Red Hill Primary School
Red Hill ▪ Fyshwick - is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School Primary ▪ Harman - is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School School ▪ Kingston - is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School ▪ Narrabundah - section west of Captain Cook Cr is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School ▪ Oaks Estate - is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School ▪ Red Hill - south of Flinders Way ▪ Symonston - is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School ▪ Griffith - north of Caley Crescent and east of La Perouse Street is a shared PEA with Forrest Primary School
Telopea Park ▪ This school runs a bi-national Australian-French program. The placements for this School P-6 program are ACT wide until the agreed capacity of this program is reached. Source: Education Directorate, 2018.23
22 ACTmapi, 2018, ‘Education,’ http://app.actmapi.act.gov.au/actmapi2/index.html?viewer=Education 23 Education Directorate, 2018,’2019 Priority Enrolment Areas by Suburb,’ https://www.education.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1192976/2019-Priority-Enrolment-Areas-by-Suburb_27- April.pdf
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Like the Telopea Park P-6 School, the Narrabundah Early Childhood School also does not have a PEA. The location of these schools is shown below in Figure 29.
FIGURE 29: OTHER GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS LOCATED WITHIN CATCHMENT SUBURBS
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
Table 10 below shows the number of enrolments in each of these schools as of February 2018, based on the ACT Education Directorate’s school census.
TABLE 10: PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018
School P K Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Total Capacity ex P ex P Red Hill Primary School 84 81 87 86 90 100 105 92 641 700 Forrest Primary School 43 67 69 70 69 79 79 74 507 600 Narrabundah Early Childhood School 75 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/a N/A 68 105 Telopea Park School N/A 85 89 81 86 84 65 68 558 600* Source: ACT Education Directorate, 2018.24 *Estimated. The overall K-10 capacity of Telopea Park School (1,505) has been allocated in a way that reflects enrolments in 2018.
The above table suggests that most of the public primary schools in the areas closest to Dairy Road are already approaching their enrolment capacity. It is not clear how many of the students currently attending Telopea Park Primary School or Narrabundah Early Childhood School live in the area, as these schools are not required to give priority to students living in the local area. Figure 30 below shows that Telopea Park is the PEA high school for all of the catchment suburbs. There are currently 852 high school students at the school. As noted above, the overall K-10 capacity of Telopea Park School is 1,505. If this is allocated in a way that reflects current enrolments, it is assumed that the capacity of the 7-10 component of the school
24 Education Directorate, 2018, ‘Census of ACT Schools February 2018,’ released 29 May 2018, https://www.education.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/1202139/February-2018-Census-Publication-Final-29- May-003.pdf
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would be around 900. If so, this school has only limited capacity to accommodate additional students.
FIGURE 30: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – HIGH SCHOOLS
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
The PEA catchment for Telopea Park High School in 2019 includes the following suburbs and areas:
▪ Barton ▪ Beard ▪ Deakin – eastern section is a shared PEA with Alfred Deakin High School ▪ Forrest ▪ Fyshwick ▪ Griffith ▪ Harman ▪ Kingston ▪ Narrabundah ▪ Oaks Estate ▪ Parkes ▪ Red Hill, and ▪ Symonston. The PEA college for the catchment suburbs is Narrabundah College, as illustrated in Figure 31 below.
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FIGURE 31: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS - COLLEGES
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
The PEA catchment for Narrabundah College in 2019 includes the following suburbs and areas:
▪ Barton ▪ Beard ▪ Deakin ▪ Forrest ▪ Fyshwick ▪ Griffith ▪ Harman ▪ Kingston ▪ Narrabundah ▪ Oaks Estate ▪ Parkes ▪ Red Hill ▪ Symonston, and ▪ Yarralumla. As of February 2018, Narrabundah College had a total of 939 Year 11 and Year 12 students, within its capacity for 1,102 students. This would suggest limited capacity to accommodate additional students.
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Across all schooling years from K-12 in the ACT there is evidence that some students are attending public schools outside their PEA. Information made available by the ACT Education Directorate has shown that 38% of Canberra’s public school students attended a school outside their PEA in 2016. In general, schools in areas with higher socio- economic advantage (such as in South Canberra) are more likely to attract additional students from other areas. In some cases, out-of-area students may come from families who previously lived in the school catchment but have since moved elsewhere. To the extent that there is scope to reduce the number of “out of area” students attending public schools in South Canberra, this could increase the capacity for these schools to accommodate additional students from areas such as East Lake and Dairy Road.
Non-government schools There are also a number of non-government schools located in the catchment suburbs. The location of these are shown below in Figure 32. Current enrolments at these schools are shown below in Table 11.
FIGURE 32: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS IN CATCHMENT AREA
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
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TABLE 11: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018
Primary schools P K Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Total St Benedict's Primary School N/A 20 18 26 28 30 17 16 155 Canberra Grammar School 128 86 95 96 122 141 123 120 911 St Bede's Primary School N/A 16 19 24 23 14 13 15 124 St Edmund's College N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44 52 69 165 High Schools Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total St Edmund's College 113 110 112 106 441 St Clare's College 205 166 181 168 720 Colleges Year 11 Year 12 Older Total St Edmund's College 90 110 N/A 200 St Clare's College 105 136 N/A 241 Source: ACT Education Directorate, 2018.
Data from the 2016 Census suggests that students in the catchment suburbs are more likely to attend government schools, for both primary and secondary years, than the wider South Canberra district and ACT. Overall, around 63% of students in the catchment attended government schools, compared to 52% for South Canberra and 60% for the ACT. The breakdown of this by primary and secondary schools is shown in Figure 33.
FIGURE 33: GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, 2016 CENSUS
Source: ABS 2016 Census.
More broadly, there has been a recent trend of increased enrolments in government schools compared to non-government schools, which has been observed in the ACT and across Australia.25 This will potentially have implications for demand for government school places, particularly where existing schools are at or reaching their student capacities.
25 See ABS, 2018, ‘Schools, Australia, 2017,’ Cat. No. 4221.0, released 2 February 2018, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Latestproducts/4221.0Main%20Features22017?opendocument&tabname=Su mmary&prodno=4221.0&issue=2017&num=&view=
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4.2 Desired standards of service for community facilities Community facilities are generally planned through a hierarchy of provision, with different community infrastructure facilities catering to different sized catchments. Catchments can refer to geographical areas and population size, and can be impacted by geography (e.g. topography, physical barriers, travel distance), population densities, relationships between centres (e.g. public transport accessibility) and the existing capacity of social infrastructure. Boundaries between catchments can vary for different types of facilities, as per the hierarchy of centres in the ACT under the Territory Plan:
▪ Civic and Town Centres – provide shopping, higher order community and cultural facilities, entertainment and recreation for population catchments between approximately 50,000 and 80,000. ▪ Group centres – provide a wide range of retail, business, community and recreation services for populations of between 20,000 and 30,000. ▪ Local centres – provide for convenience shopping and some local facilities and services for populations of between 2,000 and 5,000.
Different facilities are needed at the local, district and regional levels, to meet different needs, such as specialist services which serve larger catchments than local services used by a smaller number of people. The co-location of facilities servicing different levels can create advantages, but also needs to take into account relevant population catchments and local contexts. While the hierarchical system in the ACT makes some provision for the fact that different services and facilities have different sized catchments, there is a need to allow for flexibility and to accommodate changes over time. One way to assess the available access to community facilities in an area is to refer to community facility provision benchmarks or ‘desired standards of service.’ These generally provide standard ratios for different types of facilities based on population thresholds, but often need to be modified for application to local situations of community facility provision. Social infrastructure benchmarks that have been used in other jurisdictions to guide social infrastructure provision generally apply to planning for new greenfield estates. There is often a need to accommodate different demand and supply factors when planning for social infrastructure in infill sites, or as part of urban redevelopment projects. Suggested standards of service for community facilities in the ACT provided to the ACT Government and used in previous work, are shown below in Table 12. Some of the facilities included in this table are generally provided for larger catchments, and are unlikely to be relevant to the demand for services generated by the Dairy Road development. Recent trends in provision of some types of facilities and services may also impact on the need generated by Dairy Road. For example, in recent years the Australian Government has increased its target for aged care outreach support per 1,000 people aged over 70 from 113 to 125, and reduced the demand and need for provision of nursing home places.26 Policy changes and recent trends in demand for facilities such as licensed clubs and religious facilities, also have implications for provision requirements. Some of the information in Table 12 needs to be reviewed to take into account these recent changes and trends.
26 Aged Care Financing Authority, ‘Funding and Financing of the Aged Care Sector,’ Short form report, page 7, July 2017, https://agedcare.health.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1426/f/documents/10_2016/acfa_annual_report_on_funding_and_financi ng_of_the_aged_care_industry_2016.pdf
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TABLE 12: DESIRED STANDARDS OF SERVICE FOR COMMUNITY FACILITIES
FACILITY TYPE RECOMMENDED RECOMMENDED STANDARD OF SERVICE HIERARCHY OF (PER POPULATION CATCHMENT) PROVISION General community spaces Meeting rooms Local 1: 2,500 Licensed clubs Sub-district 1: 5,000 Religious facility Sub-district 1: 2,000 Neighbourhood hall Sub-district 1: 10,000 Community Centre Sub-district 1: 20,000 Cultural facilities Community arts centre/theatre Sub-district 1: 30,000 Library District 1: 60,000 Educational/children’s facilities Government pre/primary school Local 1: 7,500 Non-government pre/primary school Local 1: 5,000 Government high school Sub-district 1: 20,000 Non-government high school Sub-district 1: 60,000 Government secondary college District 1: 30,000 Non-government secondary college District 1: 30,000 Early childhood school District 1: 60,000 Child care Sub-district 1: 4,000 Child and family centre District 1: 60,000 Youth centre District 1: 60,000 Health and social service facilities GP medical centre Local, Sub-district 1: 4,000 Allied health services Local, Sub-district Varies Community Health Centre District 1: 60,000 Social Service Organisations District, Region 1: 60,000 Services for older people Retirement village Sub-district Varies Previously 86 places per 1,000 people Nursing home Sub-district aged 70+ Aged day care centre District 1: 60,000 Senior Citizens Club District 1: 60,000 Emergency facilities Police station District 1: 60,000 Ambulance station District 1: 60,000 Fire and rescue station District 1: 60,000 Sports facilities and open spaces District playing fields District Varies Neighbourhood ovals Local 1: 7,500 Neighbourhood parks/playgrounds Local Varies
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Community Gardens District 1: 60,000 Fitness centres Local/District Varies Source: Buckley Vann Town Planning, 2013 (unpublished).
4.3 Distribution of Community Facility Zoned land The setting aside of land specifically for community facilities in the Territory Plan (CFZ Community Facility Zone land) has objectives as follows:
▪ To facilitate social sustainability and inclusion through providing accessible sites for key government and non-government facilities and services for individuals, families and communities ▪ To provide accessible sites for civic life and allow community organisations to meet the needs of the Territory’s various forms of community ▪ To protect these social and community uses from competition from other uses ▪ To enable the efficient use of land through facilitating the co-location, and multi-use of community facilities, generally near public transport routes and convenience services appropriate to the use ▪ To encourage adaptable and affordable housing for persons in need of residential support or care, and ▪ To safeguard the amenity of surrounding residential areas against unacceptable adverse impacts including from traffic, parking, noise or loss of privacy. The distribution of community facility zoned land across different districts of the ACT is shown below in Table 13. It should be noted that not all community facilities are located in land specifically zoned for this purpose.
TABLE 13: COMMUNITY FACILITY ZONED (CFZ) LAND IN THE ACT
District Total land (sqm) Total CFZ land CFZ as % of Population CFZ land per (sqm) total land (2017 ERP) person (sqm) Belconnen 113,651,771 4,326,800 3.8% 98,740 43.8 Canberra Central* 88,799,047 2,491,375 2.8% 83,635 29.8 Gungahlin 89,193,488 1,419,653 1.6% 75,780 18.7 Molonglo Valley 27,184,709 518,171 1.9% 5,847 88.6 Tuggeranong 160,034,146 2,615,779 1.6% 85,422 30.6 Weston Creek 18,037,303 1,053,002 5.8% 23,066 45.7 Woden Valley 30,499,637 1,297,296 4.3% 35,642 36.4 TOTAL** 527,400,100 13,722,076 2.6% 408,132 33.6 Source: ACTmapi, 2018; ABS 2016 Census; adapted by SGS. *North Canberra and South Canberra SA3s. **Note: Excludes non-urban districts and those without any CFZ land.
The table shows that the provision of CFZ land in the Canberra Central district (of which the subject site and catchment is part), is similar to but lower than the per capita and percentage rate of CFZ land across all of these districts. The provision per capita is also much lower than for districts like Belconnen and Weston Creek. Molonglo has a very high current per capita rate due to its small initial population and early stage of development. While these figures can be used as a guide for planning for new development areas, many community facilities can also be located in land zoned for other purposes. These include child care centres and medical services, which can be located in residential and commercial zones. As well as this, other facilities which provide for community needs (such as parks, playing fields, entertainment venues and other recreational spaces) have their own zoning under the Territory Plan.
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In general, suburbs that include one or more schools are likely to have a higher proportion of CFZ land, and older suburbs are also likely to have a higher proportion of CFZ land than newer suburbs. Figure 34 shows Territory Plan land use zones in areas around Dairy Road, with CZF land shown in yellow. As illustrated, there are a number of CFZ sites in the suburbs surrounding Dairy Road.
FIGURE 34: TERRITORY PLAN LAND USE ZONES IN AREAS AROUND DAIRY ROAD
Source: ACTmapi, 2018.
In assessing the need for additional community facility land to be provided, it is appropriate to consider both the availability of CZF land in adjacent areas, and the potential to include community facilities in other land use zones. The 2012 ACT Planning Strategy emphasised the importance of providing access to a range of community, sport and recreation facilities and services for all Canberra residents. A specific short-term requirement was also to identify opportunities to include community facilities in mixed use developments as part of the preparation of master plans. As noted above, a longer term action identified in the Strategy is to construct schools in new residential areas where urban intensification is occurring, with East Lake specifically identified as one of these areas.
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5. DEMAND FOR FACILITIES AND SERVICES
This section considers the level of demand for facilities and services that may be generated by the Dairy Road development.
5.1 Demographic impacts on demand from Dairy Road Data provided by the Molonglo Group for initial planning purposes, indicates that there may be up to 2,404 dwellings in the Dairy Road development, based on the expected maximum number of townhouses and apartments on the site. The estimated population of Dairy Road is 4,161, as shown in Table 14 below. This estimate has been calculated based on the average occupancy rate for apartment and semi-detached dwellings in Kingston as of the 2016 Census.
TABLE 14: PROJECTED POPULATION OF DAIRY ROAD
Housing type Number of dwellings Assumed average number Expected population of occupants Apartments 2,359 1.7 4,060 Townhouses 45 2.2 100 Total 2,404 - 4,161 Source: Molonglo Group, 2018 and ABS 2016 Census.27
SGS has prepared a likely age profile for these future residents of Dairy Road, as shown below in Table 15. For the purpose of these estimates it has been assumed that all of the apartments will be in blocks that are four or more storeys high. The age profile of residents in different dwelling types reflects the age profile by dwelling type across the whole of the ACT at the time of the 2011 ABS Census. Similar information has not been made available from the ABS 2016 Census.
27 Assumed average occupancies based on calculation using General Community Profile – Kingston SA2, ‘G32 Dwelling Structure,’ available from http://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/801061131?opendoc ument
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TABLE 15: PROJECTED AGE PROFILE OF DAIRY ROAD RESIDENTS
Age (5-year groups) High rise Projected Townhouse Projected Total apartment apartment (semi- townhouse population dwellings % population detached) population dwellings % 0-4 years 2.72% 110 6.76% 7 117 5-9 years 1.13% 46 4.78% 5 51 10-14 years 0.89% 36 3.86% 4 40 15-19 years 2.10% 85 4.85% 5 90 20-24 years 15.56% 632 12.38% 12 644 25-29 years 25.78% 1047 14.61% 15 1061 30-34 years 15.08% 612 11.37% 11 624 35-39 years 8.18% 332 8.39% 8 341 40-44 years 5.09% 207 6.97% 7 214 45-49 years 4.48% 182 6.00% 6 188 50-54 years 4.87% 198 5.43% 5 203 55-59 years 4.42% 179 4.48% 4 184 60-64 years 3.69% 150 4.19% 4 154 65-69 years 1.77% 72 2.45% 2 74 70-74 years 1.26% 51 1.38% 1 53 75-79 years 1.02% 41 0.87% 1 42 80-84 years 1.17% 48 0.69% 1 48 85-89 years 0.57% 23 0.42% 0 24 90-94 years 0.18% 7 0.11% 0 7 95-99 years 0.03% 1 0.02% 0 1 100 years+ 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0 TOTAL 100% 4,060 100% 100 4,161 Source: ABS Census and SGS calculations.
5.2 Demographic impacts of development elsewhere in East Lake At this stage, no specific decisions have been publicly announced about the total number of dwellings or the mix of dwellings likely to be included in the East Lake urban renewal area (which for this purpose does not include Dairy Road). Information provided by the ACT Government to SGS in 2016 indicated that the East Lake Urban Renewal Area could include up to 3,000 dwellings.28 If so, it is likely that most of these dwellings would be apartments. For the purpose of these estimates, SGS has assumed that half of the population would be living in high rise apartments (four or more storeys) and half would live in lower rise apartments (up to three storeys). The following tables assume that such dwellings would have an average occupancy of 1.7 persons per dwelling, consistent with the assumptions for Dairy Road, based on the average occupancy of apartments in Kingston at the time of the 2016 Census. The information in Table 16 and in Table 17 does not include provision for development at Dairy Road.
28 This information was provided to SGS by the then Land Development Agency (LDA).
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TABLE 16: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MAXIMUM DWELLING NUMBERS AND POPULATION IN EAST LAKE
Housing type Number of dwellings Average number of Expected population occupants Apartments 3,000 1.7 5,100 Source: ACT Government, 2016 and SGS calculations, 2018.
As noted previously, sites for residential development at East Lake have been included on the ACT Government’s current Indicative Land Release Program (ILRP), subject to Territory Plan Variations. In the 2020-21 financial year, 330 residential dwellings are slated for release, and a further 300 in the 2021-22 financial year.29 Using a similar process as has been used for Dairy Road (above), SGS has prepared estimates for the likely age profile of the residents of up 3,000 new apartments in East Lake. These estimates are shown in Table 17.
TABLE 17: ESTIMATED AGE PROFILE OF EAST LAKE RESIDENTS (EXCLUDING DAIRY ROAD)
Age (5-year groups) High rise Projected high Low rise Projected low Total apartment rise population apartment rise population population dwellings % dwellings % 0-4 years 2.72% 69 3.94% 100 170 5-9 years 1.13% 29 1.83% 47 75 10-14 years 0.89% 23 1.13% 29 52 15-19 years 2.10% 54 2.54% 65 118 20-24 years 15.56% 397 14.48% 369 766 25-29 years 25.78% 657 24.57% 627 1,284 30-34 years 15.08% 385 15.42% 393 778 35-39 years 8.18% 209 8.61% 220 428 40-44 years 5.09% 130 5.43% 138 268 45-49 years 4.48% 114 4.90% 125 239 50-54 years 4.87% 124 4.76% 121 246 55-59 years 4.42% 113 3.58% 91 204 60-64 years 3.69% 94 2.62% 67 161 65-69 years 1.77% 45 2.00% 51 96 70-74 years 1.26% 32 1.36% 35 67 75-79 years 1.02% 26 1.11% 28 54 80-84 years 1.17% 30 0.88% 22 52 85-89 years 0.57% 15 0.61% 16 30 90-94 years 0.18% 5 0.21% 5 10 95-99 years 0.03% 1 0.03% 1 2 100 years+ 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0 TOTAL 100% 2,550 100% 2,550 5,100 Source: SGS, 2018.
29 ACT Government, 2018, ‘Indicative Land Release Program 2018-19 to 2022-22,’ http://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1207295/Indicative-Land-Release-Program-2018-19.pdf
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5.3 Demand for community facilities and services Using the above demographic information, projected population and age profile, and the Desired Standards of Service shown in Table 12, the following potential need for community facilities and services as a result of the Dairy Road development has been identified. Where the additional demand generated by other development in East Lake is also likely to impact on the capacity of current community facilities to meet future needs, this is also discussed.
General community spaces
Meeting rooms, neighbourhood halls and community centres The benchmarks shown in Table 12 above suggest there is a need for one meeting room for every 2,500 people at the local level, one neighbourhood hall for every 10,000 people at the sub-district level, and one community centre for every 20,000 people at the sub-district level. For the additional population generated by Dairy Road, this suggests a need for 1-2 meeting rooms. As illustrated in Table 8, the catchment area currently includes a wide range of community facilities which are likely to include venues and spaces that can be used for a range of community meeting and activities.
FINDING For a new development such as Dairy Road, it would be desirable to provide a space on- site that can be used as a meeting facility by residents. This space could be part of a mixed-use development, or a stand-alone structure that could be used in conjunction with outdoor activities, including informal recreational activities or environmental protection activities. It would be desirable for a facility to be available for use by a wide range of households, including families, single adults, older people and people with a disability.
Licensed clubs The benchmarks in Table 12 suggest a need for one licensed club for every 5,000 people at the sub-district level. The ACTmapi database identifies 10 existing clubs within the catchment suburbs. This exceeds the suggested level of provision. In addition, SGS views this ratio as no longer relevant given recent changes within the licensed club industry, including that recent years have seen the closure of a number of smaller clubs and the consequent growth of larger facilities. These changes are also likely to have been influenced by changes in the ACT Government’s policy towards licensed clubs, and concerns about over-reliance on revenue from gaming machines.
FINDING SGS sees no need to provide specifically for additional licensed club sites to service the additional population generated by Dairy Road.
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Places of worship The benchmarks identified in Table 12 for places of worship suggest a need for one religious facility per 2,000 people at the sub-district level. This suggests there may be a need for at least two additional sites for religious uses to service future residents of Dairy Road. However, as shown in Table 8, there are already 14 sites within the Diary Road catchment suburbs used as places of worship and for other religious uses, exceeding the suggested level of provision. Given recent trends in demand for spaces for religious uses, including the growth of so-called ‘mega’ places of worship,30 and the continued decline in the proportion of people identifying with religion, SGS considers that this benchmark is likely to be outdated and excessive compared to actual needs.
FINDING SGS does not see a need for the provision of additional sites for churches or other religious uses as part of the Dairy Road development.
Cultural facilities Table 12’s benchmarks identify a need for one community arts facility or theatre for every 30,000 people to service a sub-district population, and one library for every 60,000 people. The ACT Government’s Arts Policy Framework has identified that the ACT is relatively well- catered to in terms of access to arts facilities, but that funding for maintenance and upgrades to existing facilities is required.31 There is an existing concentration of arts facilities around Civic and the Inner North, along with the substantial cluster located at the KAP, illustrated below in Figure 35. As detailed above, the ACT Government has plans to further enhance this area and its activities, building on existing businesses including the Glassworks, the Old Bus Depot Markets, and the Megalo Print Studio and Gallery. As previously identified in Table 8, there are also a number of other facilities located nearby in the catchment suburbs. The Molonglo Group has indicated that the cultural offering of Dairy Road will complement the role and facilities of the KAP. It will be pitched at innovative and creative industries, creative makers and artisans, who will progressively move into the precinct as it is developed. These activities are defined in the Territory Plan as ‘light industrial’ or ‘craft workshops,’ and respond to emerging trends including:
▪ A resurgence in craft and bespoke manufacturing (e.g. furniture production) ▪ Higher demand for better quality local products (e.g. craft brewing) ▪ A higher propensity for consumers to pay for quality goods, and ▪ Advancements in information technology and innovation. The current zoning, crown lease, and existing industrial buildings at Dairy Road have the potential to accommodate such uses. The Molonglo Group has advised that their intention is for the development to include the retention and adaptation of existing industrial buildings on the site. This will transition the precinct from its traditional industrial role to one more in line with the wider objectives of the East Lake area. This process has begun with the curation of the types of new tenants currently accommodated at the site.
30 See ACT Government, 2009, ‘Future planning for religious community in the ACT,’ Research Paper, September 2009, https://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/891977/Future_planning_for_religious_community_in_the _ACT_m.pdf 31 See ACT Government, 2018, ‘2015 ACT Arts Policy,’ https://www.arts.act.gov.au/policy/2015-act-arts-policy
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FIGURE 35: LOCATION OF ACT ARTS FACILITIES
Source: ACT Government, 2016.32
FINDING SGS does not recommend the provision of additional sites specifically for arts facilities, but suggests that if a multi-purpose facility is to be provided, that this should be suitable for arts-related activities. The role of Dairy Road as a complement to existing and future arts activities at the KAP, would likely meet the needs of the resident community in this area for arts related activities. There is currently an ACT library facility located in Kingston, though this has restricted opening hours compared to other ACT libraries. The opening hours of this facility could be reviewed to meet increased demand from associated population growth at Dairy Road and East Lake.
Education and children’s services
Government schools The benchmarks in Table 12 suggest that one government pre/primary school be provided for a population of 7,500 at the local level, one government high school be provided at the sub- district level for a population of 20,000, and one government secondary college be provided at the district level for a population of 30,000. As identified previously, there are a number of existing government schools within and nearby to the catchment suburbs.
32 ACT Government, 2016, ‘Arts Facilities,’ http://www.arts.act.gov.au/our-arts-facilities
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Assessing the need for new schools in the catchment area is complicated by uncertainty around the provision of a school as part of East Lake, the need for which had previously been foreshadowed by the ACT Government. As part of previous work undertaken by SGS for the ACT Government in the East Lake area, it had been indicated that a school oval or Community Recreation Irrigated Park (CRIP) would also likely be included with the school. A future school at East Lake would be expected to be able to accommodate future demand for places from Dairy Road. Using the benchmarks in Table 12, the combined population of the Dairy Road development and East Lake would generate the need for a government primary school. However, given that much of the proposed residential development in East Lake and Dairy Road is likely to be medium or higher density housing, the number of school students generated is likely to be significantly below the number generated in greenfield developments with more detached housing. Estimating demand for schools and the potential impact on existing facilities in the area based on population figures and PEAs, does not factor in the number of students who may be attending these schools from outside their PEA. As mentioned previously, it has been estimated that 38% of public students in the ACT in 2016 attended a school outside their PEA. In addition, there is no publicly available information on the extent to which students from areas around East Lake are likely to be accommodated in the Narrabundah Early Childhood School and Telopea Park Primary School, which do not have priority enrolments catchments. Table 18 below shows the total number of potential students based on the age of residents in the relevant local catchment areas as of the 2016 Census. As mentioned previously, there are areas within the primary school PEA catchments which are shared between Forrest and Red Hill Primary Schools, meaning that each school would not necessarily have to cater to all of these students. A number of these students would also attend private schools within the catchment or in other parts of the ACT. Around 36% of primary students in the catchment suburbs attended a non-government school in 2016, along with 39% of secondary students.
TABLE 18: NUMBER OF POTENTIAL STUDENTS IN PEA CATCHMENT, 2016
School PEA Total number of potential Est. potential number of Current capacity students (2016) public schools students Forrest Primary* 1,073 687 600 Red Hill Primary* 1,241 794 700 Combined Forrest & Red 1,659 1,062 1300 Hill Primary Schools PEAs Telopea Park – High 1,183 722 900 (estimated) School** Narrabundah College*** 933 569 1,102 Source: ABS 2016 Census. *Population aged 5-12 years. **Population aged 12-16 years. ***Population aged 16-18 years.
As detailed above, the ACT Government’s published figures on enrolments suggest that all of these schools are approaching or at their existing student capacity, and will therefore have limited ability to accommodate new students generated by Dairy Road. Table 19 below shows the estimated additional demand for school places generated by Dairy Road, using the age profile in Table 15, and the estimated proportion of attendance between government and non-government schools in the 2016 Census for the catchment suburbs.
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TABLE 19: ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR SCHOOL PLACES FROM DAIRY ROAD
School type Estimated number of potential Estimated government school students students Primary (P – Year 6) 96 62 Secondary (Year 7 – 10) 47 28 College (Year 11 – 12) 28 17 Source: ABS 2016 Census and SGS calculations.
FINDING The additional demand for school places generated by Dairy Road in isolation is not likely to require the provision of a new school – primary, secondary or college. However, considering the wider context of limited capacities in existing schools in the area, the development at Dairy Road provides impetus for the inclusion of a school site within East Lake, as previously foreshadowed by the ACT Government.
Child care The benchmarks in Table 12 suggest that one long day care centre should be provided for a population of 4,000 at the sub-district level, equating to a need for around four centres for the combined catchment suburbs based on the current population, and up to five for the projected population to 2031. Table 8 indicates that there are currently a number of child care centres operating within the catchment suburbs. It is likely that some of the children attending these centres do not live in the catchment areas, as these facilities would be conveniently located for parents dropping off children closer to their workplaces. Given the proximity of the Kingston Foreshore and the East Lake areas in general to major employment centres at the Parliamentary Triangle and Barton, SGS has previously estimated that there could be demand sufficient for at least two additional centres, providing for around 120 places. As shown in Table 15, Dairy Road is likely to generate demand for around 117 more children in the 0-4 age group. Though not all families would seek child care places for their children, consideration could be given to the provision of a child care centre on-site as part of the development.
FINDING The Dairy Road development is not likely to generate enough children and demand to fully justify a new long day care centre. However, if a new day care centre was provided, the site’s proximity to workplaces such as the Parliamentary Triangle and Barton would mean it would be a very convenient location for parents living and/or working in the area.
Health and social service facilities
General practitioner and health services The benchmarks in Table 12 suggest a need for one GP Medical Centre for a population of 4,000, at the local or sub-district level. However, there may be additional demand generated
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for these services due to the concentration of employment in the catchment suburbs, particularly in Barton, Kingston and Fyshwick. Table 8 suggests that there are already around ten GP services within the catchment suburbs, above the suggested requirement for the resident population. The benchmarks also suggest the need for one community health centre at the district level for a population of 60,000. The nearest such centres to Dairy Road are located in Civic and Woden. It is assumed that these centres could provide for the expected increase in the population generated by Dairy Road, however, additional funding for services could be required. There are no specific benchmarks given for the provision of allied health services. However, given the expected population of Dairy Road and the area’s close proximity to employment centres, there may be scope to include on-site provision for such services.
FINDING The benchmarks suggest there is no specific need to provide additional sites for general practice or community health facilities as a result of Dairy Road, though the capacity of existing services may need to be augmented. Consideration could be given to including provision for private medical and allied health services as part of mixed use developments at Dairy Road.
Social services Table 12’s benchmarks suggest that social service organisations generally provide for district or regional catchments with populations of up to 60,000. As illustrated in Table 8, there are a number of social service organisations currently located in the catchment suburbs. Family and social support services in the ACT are provided by a range of non-government organisations, with funding provided through service provision contracts with the ACT and Commonwealth Governments. The resources of these organisations are also supplemented by donations and volunteer input. Much of the assistance provided is through outreach activities. Organisations currently delivering services to people living in the South Canberra area include Southside Community Care, Woden Community Services, St Vincent de Paul, Anglicare, YWCA and the Salvation Army. There is no indication of a specific need to provide additional accommodation for social support organisations as part of the Dairy Road development, as services can be provided from existing facilities and through outreach activities. However, funding for services may need to be increased to meet the demand likely to be generated by the increased population in the catchment.
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FINDING The benchmarks suggest that there is no specific need for additional social service facilities to meet demand generated by Dairy Road, though the capacity of some services may need to be adjusted.
Services and facilities for older people
Aged Care Facilities and Services As shown in Table 8, there are already a number of aged care facilities and services in the South Canberra area. Provision for aged care facilities and services is generally considered from a sub-district or district perspective. As the population ages, there is likely to be an increasing demand for both supported and independent living accommodation suitable for older people, as well as for outreach services. As identified previously, the catchment area and South Canberra more broadly already have a higher proportion of older people compared to the ACT as a whole. Much of the funding for residential aged care and support services for older people is provided by the Australian Government. As identified above, changes to the aged care system at the Federal level in recent years have given greater priority to the provision of home care packages and more flexible delivery arrangements. As part of this, the ratio for the allocation of funds for aged care beds (nursing homes and hostels) has been reduced to 78 beds per 1,000 people aged over 70, from 86 beds per 1,000 people prior to 2014, with a consequently higher ratio for the provision of at home care (with the target rising from 27 per 1,000 people aged over 70 prior to 2014 to 45 per 1,000 by 2022). In the longer term, the need for additional nursing homes and retirement villages will also partly depend on the needs and preferences of older people, including their preference for outreach support rather than specific older persons accommodation. Older people currently living in detached housing in the South Canberra area seeking to downsize may be attracted to newer, more compact housing provided in East Lake or Dairy Road. Options for older persons accommodation similar to the Goodwin Homes development at Crace could also be considered for East Lake or Dairy Road. Such a facility would need to have easy access to shopping, public transport, and aged care and support services. SGS understands that the Molonglo Group will be looking to benefit from its learnings from the development of NewActon, including the application of place making principles that allow for places to be meaningful to a wide demographic. The provision of facilities at NewActon has seen an older demographic among its visitors, who are already actively engaging with community life in the precinct. Importantly, the Molonglo Group will play an ongoing role as the curator of publicly accessible spaces and services at Dairy Road.
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FINDING There are a range of existing facilities and services used by older people located in the catchment suburbs and wider district of South Canberra. The expected population generated by Dairy Road is not likely to push the population of the wider area over the threshold of need for an aged day care centre or senior citizens club identified in Table 12. The estimated age profile in Table 17 suggests that there would potentially be around 175 people aged over 70 at Dairy Road, equating to a need for around 14 nursing home places and eight at home care places, using the Commonwealth Government benchmarks. This is unlikely to be enough demand to support a new aged care facility. However, there would be benefits to increasing the range of housing options available in the area for older people who may be looking to downsize, including suitable medium and higher density adaptable housing as part of Dairy Road. This may assist in allowing older people to retain their independence while living within easy access of facilities, enabling them to ‘age in place.’
Emergency facilities
Police, ambulance and fire services The benchmarks shown in Table 12 suggest that police, ambulance and fire stations should be provided at the district level, catering for a population of around 60,000. The ACT Government, through the Emergency Services Agency, has undertaken a review of the provision and location of emergency service facilities as part of an Upgrade and Relocations Program for the whole ACT. The location of facilities is influenced by required response time targets. The Upgrade and Relocations Program has assumed a significant increase in population in areas within 10 kilometres of the city centre, including the East Lake precinct. The current nearest Fire and Ambulance Station to Dairy Road is in Dalby Street in Fyshwick. The nearest police stations are located in Civic and Woden.
FINDING The ESA Upgrade and Relocation Program has taken into account the general increase in population proposed for areas within 10 kilometres of the city centre, including the East Lake area. As such, no additional facilities are seen as necessary to service Dairy Road and East Lake.
Sports facilities and open space Table 12’s benchmarks suggest that district playing fields and community gardens should be provided at the district level. Neighbourhood ovals, parks and playgrounds are generally provided at the local level, catering to smaller population catchments.
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The catchment suburbs already include the district playing fields at Narrabundah, and a number of parks and sporting facilities. Kingston and Narrabundah also have existing community gardens.
FINDING Additional open space, such as an oval or Community Recreation Irrigated Park, may be provided as part of a future school site in East Lake, which could be used by Dairy Road residents. The benchmarks in Table 12 suggest there is no need to provide for additional community gardens for Dairy Road. However, given that there are likely to be a significant proportion of people living in higher density dwellings without access to private gardens, there may be additional interest in such facilities. SGS therefore suggests that consideration be given to the identification of spaces that may be suitable for a community garden. This would be consistent with the Molonglo Group’s intention to provide for and maintain quality public and community spaces, as has been the case at NewActon, which includes community organic vegetable gardens. The public open spaces provided as part of the NewActon development have been used by a wide cross-section of the community and encourage participation in events and activities. Planning for facilities as part of Dairy Road will also need to consider the Community and Recreation Facilities Location Guidelines General Code and Estate Development Code, particularly concerning the planning of neighbourhood parks, playgrounds and sporting facilities.
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6. KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This section summarises SGS’ key findings and recommendations for the need for community facilities and services generated by the Dairy Road development.
Community facilities are important in providing spaces for residents, workers, students and visitors to meet, participate in activities and programs, and for community service provision. Community uses include neighbourhood meeting places, schools, libraries, health care, cultural activities, religious services, emergency service facilities and outdoor recreation. Provision of community facilities can add economic benefits, such as increases in the prices people are prepared to pay for property due to improved amenity. SGS understands that Molonglo Group intends to build on what has been learned and successfully implemented at NewActon. Like NewActon, it is proposed that Dairy Road will include a range of spaces, activities, services and community development programs to allow the community to engage in multiple ways. The Molonglo Group intends to create places meaningful to a broad demographic, and to retain an on-going role as the curator of the publicly accessible spaces and services at Dairy Road. ACT Government guidelines, including the Community Facility Development Code provide additional planning, design and environmental controls for the provision of community facilities, which will need to be adhered to in the development of the site. Desired Standards of Service for the provision of community facilities and services (Table 12) give some guidance on the needs of population catchments of different sizes, though some may be more relevant in the current context than others. To meet the demand generated by the Dairy Road development, SGS recommends that consideration be given to the on-site provision of facilities including:
▪ A general meeting hall or facility that could be used by residents, which could be part of a mixed use development ▪ A child care centre providing long day care ▪ Scope for additional health and social support services as part of mixed use developments ▪ Housing suitable for older people, including adaptable units ▪ Community garden space(s), and ▪ Local parks and playgrounds in accordance with requirements in the ACT’s Community and Recreation Facilities Location Guidelines General Code and the Estate Development Code. The timing for the provision of these facilities will need to factor in overall development sequencing. However, it would be desirable to have an on-site meeting place established early on in the development to support interaction and engagement between residents. The provision of community gardens and a child care facility may need to be timed to avoid the adverse impact of construction activities that may be occurring on adjacent sites. SGS has previously been advised that a new government school and associated open space is being considered by the ACT Government as part of the development of East Lake. Students from Dairy Road would need to be accommodated at this school, given existing capacity constraints on other schools in the area.
Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment 54
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