UPDATE TO DAIRY ROAD DEMOGRAPHIC AND COMMUNITY NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT Prepared for AUGUST 2018 Molonglo Group © SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2018 This report has been prepared for Molonglo Group. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 East Lake and Dairy Road context 1 1.2 Molonglo Group’s proposed development 4 1.3 This report 4 2. PLANNING AND POLICY CONTEXT 6 2.1 Territory Plan 6 2.2 National Capital Plan 7 2.3 ACT Government policies, reports and initiatives 8 3. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 13 3.1 Catchment area 13 3.2 Existing population characteristics 13 3.3 Dwelling characteristics 21 4. SUPPLY OF FACILITIES AND SERVICES 28 4.1 Existing supply of services and facilities 28 4.2 Desired standards of service for community facilities 38 4.3 Distribution of Community Facility Zoned land 40 5. DEMAND FOR FACILITIES AND SERVICES 42 5.1 Demographic impacts on demand from Dairy Road 42 5.2 Demographic impacts of development elsewhere in East Lake 43 5.3 Demand for community facilities and services 45 6. KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 54 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: DAIRY ROAD SITE IMMEDIATE CONTEXT 1 FIGURE 2: DAIRY ROAD SITE IN SOUTH CANBERRA CONTEXT 2 FIGURE 3: EAST LAKE URBAN RENEWAL AREA 3 FIGURE 4: DAIRY ROAD CONCEPT PLAN 4 FIGURE 5: DAIRY ROAD SITE CURRENT ZONING 6 FIGURE 6: FYSHWICK PRECINCT MAP AND CODE 7 FIGURE 7: NATIONAL CAPITAL PLAN SUBJECT AREAS 8 FIGURE 8: PRECINCT A AS IDENTFIED IN EAST LAKE DRAFT PLANNING REPORT, 2007 10 FIGURE 9: DAIRY ROAD SITE AND CATCHMENT USED FOR ANALYSIS 13 FIGURE 10: AGE PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS 14 Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment i FIGURE 11: AGE PROFILE, 2016 CENSUS 14 FIGURE 12: AGE AND GENDER PROFILE, CATCHMENT AREA, 2016 CENSUS 15 FIGURE 13: RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, 2016 CENSUS 17 FIGURE 14: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION, CATCHMENT AREA, 2011-2016 17 FIGURE 15: INDIGENOUS POPULATION, 2016 CENSUS 18 FIGURE 16: RESIDENT INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT (1-DIGIT LEVEL), 2016 CENSUS 19 FIGURE 17: POST-SCHOOL QUALIFICATIONS, 2016 CENSUS 19 FIGURE 18: WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, 2016 CENSUS 20 FIGURE 19: HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 2016 CENSUS 21 FIGURE 20: DWELLING TYPES, 2016 CENSUS 21 FIGURE 21: NUMBER OF USUAL RESIDENTS, 2016 CENSUS 23 FIGURE 22: DWELLING TENURE, 2016 CENSUS 23 FIGURE 23: MONTHLY MORTGAGE REPAYMENTS, 2016 CENSUS 25 FIGURE 24: WEEKLY RENTS, 2016 CENSUS 25 FIGURE 25: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES, 2009-2017 26 FIGURE 26: MEDIAN UNIT PRICES, 2009-2017 27 FIGURE 27: NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES, 2016 CENSUS 27 FIGURE 28: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – PRIMARY SCHOOLS 32 FIGURE 29: OTHER GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS LOCATED WITHIN CATCHMENT SUBURBS 33 FIGURE 30: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS – HIGH SCHOOLS 34 FIGURE 31: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS - COLLEGES 35 FIGURE 32: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS IN CATCHMENT AREA 36 FIGURE 33: GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, 2016 CENSUS 37 FIGURE 34: TERRITORY PLAN LAND USE ZONES IN AREAS AROUND DAIRY ROAD 41 FIGURE 35: LOCATION OF ACT ARTS FACILITIES 47 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION GROWTH, 2006-2017 15 TABLE 2: PROJECTED POPULATION TO 2031 16 TABLE 3: PROPORTION OF RESIDENTS BORN OVERSEAS, 2016 CENSUS 16 TABLE 4: LABOUR FORCE STATUS, 2016 CENSUS 18 TABLE 5: DWELLING OCCUPANCY TYPE, 2016 CENSUS 22 TABLE 6: PROPORTION OF DWELLINGS - PUBLIC AND COMMUNITY HOUSING, 2016 CENSUS 24 TABLE 7: NUMBER OF PUBLIC HOUSING DWELLINGS, 2014 TO 2017 24 TABLE 8: EXISTING FACILITIES AND SERVICES IN CATCHMENT SUBURBS 28 TABLE 9: PRIORITY ENROLMENT AREAS FOR GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 2019 32 TABLE 10: PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018 33 TABLE 11: NON-GOVERNMENT SCHOOL ENROLMENTS, FEBRUARY 2018 37 TABLE 12: DESIRED STANDARDS OF SERVICE FOR COMMUNITY FACILITIES 39 TABLE 13: COMMUNITY FACILITY ZONED (CFZ) LAND IN THE ACT 40 TABLE 14: PROJECTED POPULATION OF DAIRY ROAD 42 TABLE 15: PROJECTED AGE PROFILE OF DAIRY ROAD RESIDENTS 43 Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment ii TABLE 16: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MAXIMUM DWELLING NUMBERS AND POPULATION IN EAST LAKE 44 TABLE 17: ESTIMATED AGE PROFILE OF EAST LAKE RESIDENTS (EXCLUDING DAIRY ROAD) 44 TABLE 18: NUMBER OF POTENTIAL STUDENTS IN PEA CATCHMENT, 2016 48 TABLE 19: ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR SCHOOL PLACES FROM DAIRY ROAD 49 Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment iii 1. INTRODUCTION This section outlines the context surrounding the Dairy Road site, Molonglo Group’s plans for the development, and the purpose of this report. 1.1 East Lake and Dairy Road context Dairy Road site The Molonglo Group’s Dairy Road site sits on Blocks 11 and 12, Section 38 Fyshwick, as shown in Figure 1. FIGURE 1: DAIRY ROAD SITE IMMEDIATE CONTEXT Source: SGS, 2018. Figure 2 below shows the site within the suburb of Fyshwick and the wider South Canberra context. The site is in reasonably close proximity to both the Canberra Airport and Railway Station. Dairy Road currently houses a range of light industrial and commercial businesses, including the Australian Government’s COMCAR depot and Pickles Auctions. The site is also home to Capital Brewing Company, a number of small creative industry businesses, and new businesses catering to specialised recreational activities, such as BlocHaus and Vertikal Indoor Snowsports. Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment 1 FIGURE 2: DAIRY ROAD SITE IN SOUTH CANBERRA CONTEXT Source: SGS, 2018. East Lake The Dairy Road site is part of the East Lake Urban Renewal area, shown below in Figure 3. This area was identified as a potential future development location in 2004 in the Canberra Spatial Plan. Subsequent years have seen a number of planning studies undertaken for the site and its future development. The ACT Government’s vision is for the area to: “… become a lively, high-density urban community providing an Australian showcase of sustainable development. It is expected to provide a mix of housing choice in an environment of high quality open space and public realm, well connected to existing and new shops, employment opportunities, schools and other facilities.”1 Planning for the land at East Lake has undergone several iterations with different development scenarios put forward. Previous estimates have identified potential for up to 9,000 people to be accommodated in the area, with housing predominantly medium and higher density dwellings, and some industrial and commercial uses to be retained. 1 ACTPLA, 2007, ‘East Lake Urban Renewal,’ Fact Sheet, http://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/890991/East_Lake_Urban_Renewal.pdf Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment 2 FIGURE 3: EAST LAKE URBAN RENEWAL AREA Source: ACTPLA, 2007. Current planning and land release Planning for the development of the government-owned land at East Lake has been narrowed considerably from the study area shown in Figure 3, and is likely to include land adjacent the railway station and the Kingston Foreshore, fronting onto the Wetlands. Sites at East Lake have been put on the ACT Government’s current Indicative Land Release Program (ILRP), subject to Territory Plan Variations. In the 2020-21 financial year, 330 residential dwellings are slated for release, and a further 300 in the 2021-22 financial year.2 Jerrabomberra Wetlands Sustainability has also been an important aspect of the planning for East Lake, given its proximity to the Wetlands. The Wetlands Reserve covers around 200 hectares of land, and provides important habitat for local and migratory birds. The Wetlands is one of the most important wetland habitats in the ACT, and has an important role in Canberra’s biodiversity.3 In 2016 the ACT Government and Jerrabomberra Wetlands Management Committee produced a Concept Plan setting a strategy and design framework for the future of the Jerrabomberra Wetlands.4 The 2016 Concept Plan considers the relationship of the Reserve to future development in the East Lake area. The Jerrabomberra Wetlands Management Committee and the Molonglo Group have further collaborated to explore how the respective visions of the 2016 Wetlands Concept Plan, the vision for Dairy Road and the Government's vision for East Lake can be integrated. This integration study will guide and inform future built form, pedestrian and cycle connectivity, and capital works to protect existing habitats, develop additional terrestrial ecosystems and habitats, deliver world class visitor infrastructure, and develop environmental guidelines for capital works. 2 ACT Government, 2018, ‘Indicative Land Release Program 2018-19 to 2021-22.’ http://www.planning.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1207295/Indicative-Land-Release-Program-2018-19.pdf 3 ACT Government, 2010, ‘Jerrabomberra Wetlands Nature Reserve Plan of Management 2010,’ https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/390673/WEB_Jerrabomberra_MP.pdf 4 See Woodlands and Wetlands Trust, 2018, ‘Enhancing,’ https://jerrabomberrawetlands.org.au/the-reserve/enhancing/ Update to Dairy Road Demographic and Community Needs Assessment 3 1.2 Molonglo Group’s proposed development The proposed development site is bound by Dairy Road, the Monaro Highway, the railway line which links into Canberra’s railway station in Kingston, and the southern edge of the Jerrabomberra Wetlands. The Dairy Road development is expected to include mixed use facilities incorporating space for commercial premises, apartments and some town houses.