F A S T Update Madagascar Semi-annual Risk Assessment June to November 2006 T S A F © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | June to November 2006 | Page 2 Contents Country Stability and Cooperative International Events (relative) 3 Conflictive Government and Non-Government Events (relative) 5 Cooperative and Conflictive Domestic Events (relative) 8 Appendix: Description of indicators used 11 The FAST International Early Warning Program 12 FAST Update Subscription: www.swisspeace.org/fast/subscription_form.asp Contact FAST International: Country Expert: Phone: +41 31 330 12 19 Richard Marcus Fax: +41 31 330 12 13 mailto:
[email protected] www.swisspeace.org/fast © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | June to November 2006 | Page 3 Country Stability and Cooperative International Events (relative) Average number of reported events per month: 127 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: • During the second half of 2006 Country Stability and Cooperative International Events in Madagascar were primarily a function of the social and political actions in the run-up to the much anticipated 3 December 2006 presidential elections. Promises for extended economic aid and long term program planning on the part of donors and other international actors slowed as the administration of President Marc Ravalomanana drew towards political action. Considering the large number of challengers to the presidency, and the volatility of the opposition, Country Stability remained notably high. The downward trend in the Country Stability index in November 2006 is a reflection primarily of a single event, and its repercussions: the weak effort by General Andrianafidisoa (Fidy) to stage a military challenge to the Ravalomanana regime. • The first half of 2006, like much of Ravalomanana’s presidency, was characterized by high levels of foreign assistance.