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Opium Survey 2007 Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007 October 2007 ABBREVIATIONS AEF Afghan Eradication Force ANP Afghan National Police GPS Global Positioning System ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics RAS Research and Analysis Section (UNODC) UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2007 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report: Survey and Monitoring Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Eng. Ibrahim Azhar (Director) Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director) Survey Coordinators: Khiali Jan (Central zone), Abdul Mateen (Nangarhar zone), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Hirat Zone), Fida Mohammad (Balkh Zone), and Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (Badakhshan Zone), Technical staff: Sayed Mehdi (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ghulam Abbas (Remote Sensing Analyst), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Data Expert), Arzo Omid (Data Clerk), Mohammad Ajmal (Data Clerk), Sahar (Data Clerk). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Christina Oguz (Country Representative) Shirish Ravan (Project Coordinator, RAS/ICMP) Nazir Ahmad Shah (National Project Coordinator) Ziauddin Zaki (Data Analyst) Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Assistant) Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Nangarhar zone), Abdul Jalil (Balkh zone), Abdul Qadir Palwal (Kandahar zone), Fawad Alahi (Hirat zone), Mohammad Rafi (Badakhshan zone), Rahimullah Omar (Central zone), Sayed Ahmad (Kandahar zone), Abdul Rahim Marikh (Nangarhar zone), Fardin Osmani (Balkh zone) Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Kandahar zone), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Nangarhar zone), Altaf Hussain Joya (Hirat zone), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (Badakhshan zone), Lutfi Rahman Lutfi (Balkh zone) Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaq Mezhgan Aria (Administrative Assistant) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Tashkent) Hakan Demirbuken (Regional Expert for South-West Asia & Project Supervisor, RAS/ICMP) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Anja Korenblik (Programme Manager, RAS), Thibault le Pichon (Chief, RAS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer, RAS/ICMP), Patrick Seramy (Database management, RAS/ICMP), Thomas Pietschmann (Research Officer, RAS). The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions. The UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the European Commission and the Governments of the United Kingdom, Finland and the United States of America. This report, and other ICMP survey reports can be downloaded from: www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 35 2 FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.1 OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION............................................................................................................................. 36 2.2 OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION DENSITY .......................................................................................................... 58 2.3 CANNABIS CULTIVATION................................................................................................................................... 58 2.4 OPIUM YIELD.......................................................................................................................................................... 60 2.5 ERADICATION ........................................................................................................................................................ 71 2.6 POTENTIAL OPIUM PRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 86 2.7 SECURITY................................................................................................................................................................ 90 2.8 DRUG TRAFFICKING ............................................................................................................................................ 91 2.9 OPIUM FARMERS................................................................................................................................................... 93 2.10 REASONS FOR CULTIVATION, NON-CULTIVATION AND STOPPING CULTIVATION OF OPIUM POPPY ............................................................................................................................................................................. 96 2.11 LOANS .................................................................................................................................................................... 99 2.12 EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AND FARMERS’ EXPECTATIONS .................................................................. 102 2.13 INCOME GENERATION FOR FARMERS........................................................................................................ 104 2.14 ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION ................................................................................................................................... 107 2.15 OPIUM PRICES.................................................................................................................................................... 109 2.8 MIGRATION........................................................................................................................................................... 113 2.16 ESTIMATED VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION AND INCOME OF OPIUM POPPY-GROWING FARMERS..................................................................................................................................................................... 116 2.17 POTENTIAL VALUE AND INCOME TO THE AFGHAN ECONOMY......................................................... 120 3 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................................... 123 ANNEX I: OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION IN AFGHANISTAN PER PROVINCE (HECTARES), 2002- 2007 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 153 ANNEX II: INDICATIVE DISTRICT LEVEL ESTIMATION OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION, 1994-2007 (IN HECTARES)............................................................................................................................... 154 ANNEX III: ERADICATION FIGURES BY DISTRICT (2007) ................................................................... 163 ii Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007 PREFACE The world’s leading drug producer In 2007 Afghanistan cultivated 193,000 hectares of opium poppies, an increase of 17% over last year. The amount of Afghan land used for opium is now larger than the corresponding total for coca cultivation in Latin America (Colombia, Peru and Bolivia combined). Favourable weather conditions produced opium yields (42.5 kg per hectare) higher than last year (37 kg/ha). As a result, in 2007 Afghanistan produced an extraordinary 8,200 tons of opium (34% more than in 2006), becoming practically the exclusive supplier of the world’s deadliest drug (93% of the global opiates market). Leaving aside 19th century China, that had a population at that time 15 times larger than today’s Afghanistan, no other country in the world has ever produced narcotics on such a deadly scale. In Afghanistan, the total export value of opium and heroin being trafficked to neighbouring countries in 2007 is $US 4 billion, an increase of 29% over 2006. That means that opium now accounts for more than half (53%) of the country’s licit GDP. This export adds value with every border that its crosses. By the time the heroin hits the streets of Moscow, Paris or London, it could be worth 50 to 100 times as much as in Kabul (taking changes in purity into account). Therefore, while opium is profitable to some Afghan farmers, these sums – though significant in relation to the local economy – are only a fraction of the major profits that are being made world-wide by criminals, insurgents and terrorists. A divided country On aggregate, Afghanistan’s opium production has thus reached a frighteningly new level, twice the amount produced just two years ago. Behind this headline we note however an important development -- a fault- line now divides the country, with opium cultivation trends moving in opposite directions. In centre-north Afghanistan, despite massive poverty, opium cultivation has diminished. The number of opium-free provinces more than doubled, from 6 last year to 13 in 2007. A leading example is the province of Balkh, where opium cultivation collapsed from 7,200 hectares last year to zero today. Other Afghan provinces should be encouraged to follow the model of this northern region where leadership, incentives and security have led farmers to turn their backs on opium. In south-west Afghanistan, despite relatively higher levels of income, opium cultivation has exploded to unprecedented levels. This year around 70% of the country’s poppies were grown in five provinces along the border with Pakistan. An astonishing 50% of the whole Afghan opium crop
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