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The Recipe for F&B

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The Recipe for F&B Analyst 한국희 Analyst 손예희 3774-1474 3774-1681 [email protected] [email protected] Weekly Update The Recipe for F&B: valuation Global / Food, Beverage and Tobacco Aug 28 2007 Vol. 1 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션 부담 완화 중 F&B Sector Performance <World> (%) 1W 1M 6M ■ 방어적 흐름 지속된 가운데 AP 개별 종목 상승률 돋보임 MSCI AC world 3.7 (4.3) (0.2) MSCI AC world F&B 2.4 (1.2) 1.6 지난 1주간 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 전반적으로 벤치마크 대비 언더퍼폼하였는데, 지난 6개 Relative Performance (1.4) 3.1 1.8 월간의 이른바 ‘defensive’한 주가 트랜드가 지속된 것으로 풀이됨. 즉 bear market에 서의 섹터 퍼포먼스는 상대적으로 양호하나, bull market에서의 주가 상승 탄력은 벤치 <AP ex. Japan> (%) 1W 1M 6M 마크 지수 대비 열등한, 전형적인 흐름을 보이고 있음. 지난 1주간 MSCI AC world, MSCI AP ex. Japan 9.1 (6.9) 8.5 MSCI AP ex. Japan, MSCI Korea 각각의 상대 퍼포먼스는 -1.4%, -2.5%, -1.4% 수 MSCI AC ex. Japan F&B 6.7 (4.6) 4.5 준에 그쳤음. 다만 유럽 및 미국 지역에 비해 아시아퍼시픽 지역의 지수 상승률이 높게 Relative Performance (2.5) 2.3 (4.0) 나타남에 따라, 음식료 섹터에서도 일본을 비롯한 아시아 지역의 개별 종목 수익률이 돋 보였음. Tingyi Holdings의 주간 상승률이 18.0%로 가장 높았고, 롯데칠성, 하이트, CJ <Korea> (%) 1W 1M 6M 등의 한국 음식료 종목들이 그 뒤를 이었음. 이에 비해 Pepsi, Coca-Cola를 비롯한 미 MSCI Korea 9.2 (9.7) 17.2 국 지역 beverage sector 및 Kellogg, Hershey 등의 food sector의 주가는 부진하였음. MSCI Korea F&B 7.8 (6.2) 12.3 Relative Performance (1.4) 3.6 (4.9) ■ A valuation perspective: KT&G, Hite의 PEG 배수 매력적 한국 F&B 섹터의 밸류에이션은 글로벌 및 AP peer 대비 큰 매력은 없는 상태임. 다만 역사적으로 보아 밸류에이션상 투자매력이 회복되는 국면이 진행 중인 것으로 판단됨. 즉 historical relative PER이 2004년말 최고점인 1.7x 및 2007년초 고점 1.6x 대비 상 당 폭의 조정을 거쳐 현재 1.3x 수준까지 하락했음. 특히 relative EV/EBITDA 기준으 로는 1.0x를 하회하기 시작했음. EPS growth 대비 PER 배수를 기준으로 하이트맥주 및 KT&G의 밸류에이션 매력이 큰 편이고, ROE 수준을 고려한 PBR 배수를 참고한다 면 KT&G가 매력적인 투자 대안. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 / Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 C ontents C I. Global F&B Sector Overview 5 II. Asia Pacific F&B Sector Overview 15 III. Domestic F&B Sector Overview 24 IV. Appendix: Company Profiles (Alphabetical orders) 30 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 / Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 그림목차 <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 5 <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Week Performance by industry 5 <Graph 3> Winners and Losers of Last Week 8 <Graph 4> PER - EPS Growth Map 9 <Graph 5> PBR - ROE Map 9 <Graph 6> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PER 10 <Graph 7> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 10 <Graph 8> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 11 <Graph 9> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 11 <Graph 10> Leading Global F&B : PEG 12 <Graph 11> Leading Global F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 12 <Graph 12> AP ex. Japan F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 15 <Graph 13> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Week Performance by industry 15 <Graph 14> Winners and Losers of Last Week 18 <Graph 15> PER-EPS Growth Map 19 <Graph 16> PBR-ROE Map 19 <Graph 17> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PER 20 <Graph 18> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PBR 20 <Graph 19> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month Dividend Yield 21 <Graph 20> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month EV/EBITDA 21 <Graph 21> Leading AP F&B : PEG 22 <Graph 22> Leading AP F&B : Forward 12 month PSR 22 <Graph 23> Korea F&B Sector Relative to MSCI Korea by industry 24 <Graph 24> Consumer Staple Industry’s Last Week Performance by industry 24 <Graph 25> Winners and Losers of Last Week 25 <Graph 26> PER - EPS Growth 28 <Graph 27> Tr.PBR - ROE Map 28 <Graph 28> PEG Valuation 28 <Graph 29> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative PER 29 <Graph 30> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative PBR 29 <Graph 31> Korean F&B’s Historical Relative EV/EBITDA 29 표목차 <Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation 6 <Table 2> Global F&B Comparative Performance 7 <Table 3> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Valuation 15 <Table 4> Asia Pacific F&B Comparative Performance 16 <Table 5> Korea F&B Comparative Valuation 26 <Table 6> Korea F&B Comparative Performance 27 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 / Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 Global Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 / Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 I. Global F&B Sector Overview 아시아퍼시픽 개별 종목들의 지난 1주간 글로벌 F&B 섹터는 전반적으로 벤치마크 대비 언더퍼폼. 이는 지난 6개월간의 이른 반등 폭이 컸던 한 주 바 ‘defensive’한 주가 트랜드가 지속된 것으로 풀이됨. 즉 bear market에서의 섹터 퍼포먼스 는 상대적으로 양호하나, bull market에서의 주가 상승 탄력은 벤치마크 지수 대비 열등한, 전 형적인 흐름을 보이고 있음. 세부 섹터별로는 최근 수익률이 가장 좋았던 음료(beverage) 섹터 의 주가 조정 폭이 가장 컸고, 식료품(food) 섹터의 주가가 가장 양호한 흐름을 보임. 지역별로 는 유럽 및 미국 지역에 비해 아시아퍼시픽 지역의 지수 상승률이 높게 나타남에 따라, 음식료 섹터에서도 일본을 비롯한 아시아 지역의 개별 종목 수익률이 돋보였음. Tingyi Holdings의 주 간 상승률이 18.0%로 가장 높았고, 롯데칠성, 하이트, CJ 등의 한국 음식료 종목들이 그 뒤를 이었음. 이에 비해 Pepsi, Coca-Cola를 비롯한 미국 지역 음료 섹터 및 전월대비 EPS 하향조 정이 가장 큰 폭으로 이뤄진 Hershey 등 식품 기업의 주가는 하락하였음. 최근 1개월간 가장 가파른 상승세 <Graph 1> World F&B sector Relative to MSCI AC World by industry 보였던 beverage sector의 조정 폭이 가장 컸음 (%) 110 108 106 Beverage 104 102 100 98 96 94 Tobacco Food 92 90 06/01 06/03 06/05 06/07 06/09 06/11 07/01 07/03 07/05 07/07 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 (2006/01/01=100) Consumer Staples 전반적으로 <Graph 2> Consumer Staple Sector’s Last Week Performance by industry 부진: beverage sector 수익률 가장 부진 (%) 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.0 Food World Food Tobacco Personal Products Staples Retailing Beverage Products Consumer Household 자료: Factset, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 절대수익률 기준 Aug 28 2007 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5 The Recipe for F&B: valuation Analyst 한국희 3774-1474 / Analyst 손예희 3774-1681 <Table 1> Global F&B Comparative Valuation Company Name Ticker Ctry Wgt MCap Sales Sales G (YoY) Net Inc. EPS G (YoY) EPS (MoM) OP Margin EBITDA Margin ROE 07E 07E 08E 07E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E 07E 08E (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) (%) (%) (USD bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Earnings Summary Altria Group Inc. MO-US US 6.0 145.7 37.9 (46.0) 3.9 9.1 (20.0) 7.5 0.0 0.0 36.6 37.1 37.9 38.5 52.0 44.0 Nestle S.A. NESN-CH SW 7.0 170.3 88.3 7.7 7.7 8.4 12.2 10.7 0.7 1.9 13.6 13.9 16.7 16.9 18.7 18.9 Coca-Cola Co. KO-US US 4.6 124.9 28.0 16.1 7.9 6.1 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 27.2 31.4 32.2 35.0 36.3 PepsiCo Inc. PEP-US US 4.6 110.2 38.6 9.9 5.7 5.6 12.7 9.9 0.9 1.0 18.7 19.3 22.5 23.2 35.3 38.8 British American Tobacco PLC BATS-GB UK 2.1 67.1 19.8 1.0 3.5 4.4 7.3 9.1 0.8 0.9 30.1 31.2 34.2 35.0 32.7 34.1 Kraft Foods Inc. KFT-US US 2.2 51.2 36.2 5.5 6.6 2.9 (7.2) 6.7 0.0 0.0 13.7 13.7 16.1 16.4 10.3 11.1 Japan Tobacco Inc. 2914-JP JP 0.9 48.7 54.0 31.3 9.5 2.3 26.2 (16.2) 2.0 5.9 7.1 6.0 9.5 9.9 13.4 9.2 InBev INB-BE BE 0.6 46.9 19.5 7.2 6.2 2.4 27.4 13.2 1.9 0.8 25.5 26.1 33.3 33.8 13.8 14.0 Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. BUD-US US 1.5 36.3 16.5 5.2 3.7 2.1 11.1 9.2 0.1 (0.3) 17.1 17.3 23.3 23.5 61.0 84.6 Groupe Danone BN-FR FR 1.4 36.2 20.2 5.1 12.7 1.8 5.1 10.8 (1.0) (1.1) 14.0 15.3 17.4 18.0 21.7 19.2 Archer Daniels Midland Co. ADM-US US 0.8 21.6 46.2 5.0 1.9 1.7 15.6 7.3 1.9 0.7 5.2 5.4 6.8 7.3 15.4 16.1 General Mills Inc.
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