Lotte Confectionery (004990)
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Company Brief March 9, 2017 Lotte Confectionery (004990) 12M rating BUY (Maintain) THADD impact on shares 12M TP W250,000 from W250,000 Up/downside +29% Chocolate factory jointly owned with Hershey to halt production - Output at Lotte Shanghai Foods, a chocolate-making joint venture between Lotte Stock Data Confectionary and Hershey, will be suspended one month from July due to fire KOSPI (Mar 8, pt) 2,095 safety violations. Stock price (Mar 8, KRW) 194,000 - Lotte Shanghai Foods was established in 2007 as a joint venture with Hershey. Market cap (USD mn) 2,407 And, LH Foods (50-owned by Lotte Confectionary) and Lotte (China) Investment Shares outstanding (mn) 14 (wholly-owned by Lotte Confectionary) hold a 50% stake in Lotte Shanghai 52-Week high/low (KRW) 280,600/162,000 6M avg. daily turnover (USD mn) 5.1 Foods. Free float / Foreign ownership (%) 37.3/34.3 - Lotte Shanghai Foods contributes to earnings at Lotte Confectionary on an Major shareholders (%) equity-method basis with 2016 net sales estimated at W120bn (W121bn in 2015) Lotte Aluminum Co.,Ltd and 11 62.7 others and NP at W5.7bn (W5.6bn). First Eagle Investment Management, 7.5 LLC Capital in China businesses already down sharply Performance - Book value of the eight China subsidiaries, including Lotte Shanghai Foods, is 1M 6M 12M estimated at W30bn as of end-2016. Absolute (%) (9.6) 14.1 (24.4) - Lotte Shanghai Foods is the largest company in terms of net assets, followed by Relative to KOSPI (%p) (11.0) 12.6 (32.0) Lotte China Foods. 12MF PE trend - If these types of retaliatory measures persist over the long term, additional losses (X) 12MF PER (LHS) (W' 000) 400 may be incurred by Lotte Confectionary’s China operations. 40 price (RHS) 350 - But due to sluggish earnings, capital at China subsidiary has already eroded to 35 300 only about 20% of consolidated OP and the fixed cost burden has eased on 30 250 25 sustained restructuring. 200 20 - We estimate 2016 operating results at the China subsidiaries will be in line YoY 150 15 (W78bn in 2015) while operating losses should narrow more than W10bn to 100 10 W12.1bn. 5 50 0 0 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 THADD issue unfavorable for shares, but adopt reasonable approach Source: WISEfn consensus - Lotte Confectionary should be indirectly impacted due to the unfavorable effects on affiliate stakes, including Lotte Shopping (7.9% stake), which has significant exposure to China. 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Sales (W bn) 2,225 2,258 2,248 2,355 2,457 chg. (% YoY) 12.6 1.5 (0.4) 4.8 4.3 Operating profit (W bn) 115 144 128 155 174 Net profit (W bn) 2 79 84 124 144 EPS (KRW) (203) 5,345 5,510 8,173 9,463 chg. (% YoY) NM NM 3.1 48.3 15.8 Kyoung Ju Lee EBITDA (W bn) 206 240 228 256 276 822-3276-6269 PE (x) NM 42.6 32.4 23.7 20.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 15.4 13.6 12.9 11.9 Youjin Jung PB (x) 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 822-3276-6228 ROE (%) -0.1 3.0 3.1 4.8 5.7 [email protected] Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 Note: Net profit and EPS are based on figures attributed to controlling interest Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Lotte Confectionery (004990) - Going forward, we believe shares will be catalyzed by the sustained high growth in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the adoption of a holding company structure and the IPO of unlisted subsidiaries, in addition to the geopolitical tensions between Korea and China. Figure 1. Lotte Confectionery’s China stake breakdown Note: Stake and net assets as of 3Q16 Source: Company data, Korea Investment & Securities 2 Lotte Confectionery (004990) Changes to recommendation and price target Company (Code) Date Recommendation Price target Lotte Confectionery (004990) 03-11-15 BUY W250,000 03-08-16 BUY W290,000 10-24-16 BUY W250,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 3 Lotte Confectionery (004990) ■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. stock ratings based on 12-month forward share price performance relative to the market index BUY: Expected to outperform the market index by 15%p or more Hold: Expected to underperform or outperform the market index by less than 15%p Underweight: Expected to underperform the market index by 15%p or more Korea Investment & Securities does not offer target prices for stocks with Hold or Underweight ratings. ■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. stock rating allocation (as of Dec 31, 2016) BUY Hold Underweight (Sell) 77.6% 21.1% 1.3% Note: % of companies under coverage with this rating ■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. sector ratings for the next 12 months Overweight: Recommend increasing the sector’s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. Neutral: Recommend maintaining the sector’s weighting in the portfolio in line with its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. Underweight: Recommend reducing the sector’s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. ■ Analyst Certification I/We, as the research analyst/analysts who prepared this report, do hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities and issuers discussed in this report. I/We do hereby also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. ■ Important compliance notice As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or the public appearance (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month), Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Lotte Confectionery. There is no actual, material conflict of interest of the research analyst or Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates known at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Lotte Confectionery in the past 12 months; Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not received compensation for investment banking services from Lotte Confectionery in the past 12 months; Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Lotte Confectionery in the next 3 months. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates was not making a market in Lotte Confectionery’s securities at the time that the research report was published. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. does not own over 1% of shares of the companies mentioned in this report as of March 9, 2017. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. has not provided this report to various third parties. Neither the analyst/analysts who prepared this report nor their associates own any shares of the company/companies mentioned in this report as of March 9, 2017. Prepared by: Kyoung Ju Lee 4 Lotte Confectionery (004990) Global Disclaimer ■ General This research report and marketing materials for Korean securities are originally prepared and issued by the Research Center of Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., an organization licensed with the Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea. The analyst(s) who participated in preparing and issuing this research report and marketing materials is/are licensed and regulated by the Korea Financial Investment Association in Korea only. This report and marketing materials are copyrighted and may not be copied, redistributed, forwarded or altered in any way without the consent of Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. This research report and marketing materials are for information purposes only. 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