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Lotte Confectionery (004990 KS) February 28, 2011 Korea-Equity Research Lotte Confectionery (004990 KS) Food & Beverage Woon-mok Baek +822-768-4158 [email protected] Amy Lee +822-768-3066 [email protected] Chinese business to take off in 2011 Buy (Maintain) Bloomberg: 004990 KS Target Price (12M, W): 1,850,000 Raise TP to W1,850,000; Maintain Buy rating Share Price (02/25/11, W): 1,370,000 Despite stable domestic operations, Lotte Confectionery’s share price has moved in line Expected Return (%): 35.0 with the KOSPI due to the sluggish performance of its overseas operations (especially Sector: Food Products in China). However, things will likely change, as the company’s Chinese subsidiary is Sector Rating: Neutral expected to show sales growth and swing to positive in 2011 following the completion of EPS Growth (11F, %): 13.2 restructuring. In light of this bright outlook for its Chinese operations, we maintain our Buy rating. Furthermore, we raise our target price to W1,850,000 (from W1,700,000) Market EPS Growth (11F, %): 24.2 because we revised up our 2011 earnings forecasts for the company. P/E (X): 12.7 Market P/E (02/25/11F, x): 9.6 Chinese operations to get back on track in 2011 Market Cap (Wbn): 1,947 Shares Outstanding (mn): 1 Until the end of 2010, Lotte Confectionery invested W500bn in its overseas business, but to no avail. The company’s overseas business only showed stagnant sales and Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000): 1 suffered an operating loss. Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn): 2 Margin Balance ('000 sh): 0 However, the company’s sales in China are likely to turn upward in 2011, driven by: 1) the liquidation of its non-performing bonds and ailing customers in 2010, 2) localization, Dividend Yield (11F, %): .3 3) the expansion of direct operations, and 4) product portfolio diversification. Free Float (%): 49.0 52-Week Low/High: 1,170,000/1,570,000 In 2011, Lotte Confectionery’s Chinese subsidiary aims to post sales of W140bn (up from W80bn in 2010) and reach a break-even point (from an operating loss of W15bn in Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return): 0.6 2010). Price Return Volatility (12M Daily,%,SD): 1.6 Foreign Ownership (%): 42.5 Domestic operations to stay robust despite negative external factors Major Shareholder(s): In spite of the deteriorating external factors facing food and beverage companies, Lotte Lotte Aluminum et al. (49.97%) Confectionery is projected to deliver sales growth of 8.2% and operating profit growth of Silchester International Investors LLP (9.7%) 10.4% in 2011. The domestic confectionery market is anticipated to expand in 2011, Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder Advisers, LLC and won appreciation should be favorable for the company, which relies on imports for (6.5%) 60% of its raw materials. And cost burdens should remain minimal if commodity food Price Performance prices are not raised. Even if commodity food prices increase, the company should be (%) 1M 6M 12M able to offset the subsequent cost increase by releasing new products and revamping Absolute -4.3 9.3 16.4 its existing products. Relative 1.6 -3.9 -7.3 FY Sales OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn)(Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 140 KOSPI 12/08 1,245 90 7.2 178 125,285 145 59 10.3 10.4 1.0 12.3 120 12/09 1,317 112 8.5 96 67,233 165 17 4.5 19.2 0.8 12.1 100 12/10P 1,416 151 10.7 136 95,367 214 59 5.5 15.8 0.8 11.2 80 12/11F 1,532 167 10.9 153 107,954 242 73 5.8 12.7 0.7 8.8 60 12/12F 1,643 181 11.0 175 123,050 252 78 6.3 11.1 0.7 8.1 40 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates 2/10 6/10 10/10 2/11 Please read carefully important notices at the end of this report. February 28, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Ready to reap the benefits of overseas investments As of end-2010, Lotte As of end-2010, Lotte Confectionery invested W500bn in its overseas business, but to no avail. Confectionery invested The company has yet to record equity-method gains from Guylian due to goodwill amortization, W500bn in its overseas while its Chinese subsidiary has shown stagnant sales and suffered an operating loss. However, we expect business to turn around in 2011. First, the consolidated financial statement will begin to business, but to no avail show operating profit from Guylian, as the company will no longer be required to amortize goodwill under the new IFRS system. Second, we expect the Chinese operation to show sales growth and swing to positive territory in 2011 after restructuring. In light of this bright outlook, Lotte targets overseas sales of W500bn (up 67% YoY) in 2011 and plans to achieve overseas sales of W4.4tr in 2018 through additional M&As. Figure 1. Lotte ConfectioneryÊs overseas business profile **Belgium **China - Acquired Guylian, premium chocolate brand in **Russia - Entered Chinese market in 1994 2008 - Lotte Europe Holdings - Subsidiaries: Lotte China Investment (Holding company) - Established Asia headquarters in Shanghai, China - Expected to generate Lotte China Foods, Lotte Qingdao Foods - Subsidiary: Lotte Confectionery Holdings profit from 2014 Lotte PengCheng, Lotte Packaging (Beijing) Lotte Shanghai Foods LH Foods (Joint venture with Hershey’s) - Operating branches: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Qingdao, **Pakistan Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu - Acquired Kolson in 2010 -MS 2nd in snack, MS 1st in pasta, MS 4th in biscuit markets **Vietnam **India - Acquired BIBICA, - Acquired Parrys in 2004 Vietnam’s 2nd largest confectionery company in 2007 -MS 3rd in Indian candy market - Manufacturing base for Southeast Asia - Subsidiaries: Lotte Foods India, - Subsidiaries: BIBICA Corporation, Lotte India Lotte Vietnam Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 2. 2011 Overseas sales and OPM targets for Lotte Confectionery Figure 3. Lotte ConfectioneryÊs long-term sales target (Wbn) (%) (Wtr) 150 12 8 Sales (L) Russia OP margin (R) Vietnam Pakistan 120 8 India 6 Guylian 90 4 China 4 60 0 2 30 -4 Domestic 0 -8 0 China Guylian India Pakistan Vietnam Russia 2010 2011F 2018F Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 2 February 28, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Chinese operations to get back on track in 2011 2011F: Chinese In 2011, the Chinese subsidiary aims to post sales of W140bn (up from W80bn in 2010) and subsidiary to post sales reach break-even point (versus operating loss of W15bn in 2010). Although these targets are growth of 75% and reach aggressive, they appear to be somewhat achievable considering that Chinese sales grew 29% YoY in January. break-even point We expect the Chinese subsidiary to improve, in light of: 1) the leadership shift from Lotte Japan to Lotte Korea; 2) the liquidation of non-performing bonds and termination of relationships with ailing customers in 2010; 3) localization; 4) expansion of direct operations; 5) synergies with China-based Lotte Shopping; and 6) product portfolio diversification. Domestic operations to remain robust despite external factors Robust domestic Despite the deteriorating external factors facing food and beverage companies, we expect sales operations in 2011 on the and operating profit to improve by 8.2% and 10.4% in 2011. The domestic confectionery market back of: 1) confectionery should expand in 2011; we have noted consistent improvement since 2008 when the market suffered from multiple crises, including melamine contamination of dairy products in China. We market growth, 2) won anticipate production efficiency to improve thanks to the acquisition of Kirin, leading to higher appreciation and 3) new market share. products Table 1. Lotte ConfectioneryÊs quarterly earnings forecasts (Wbn, %) 2010P 2011F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Annual 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Annual Sales 317 370 398 332 1,416 346 404 428 3541,532 Operating profit 27 52 56 16 151 31 59 59 17 167 Pretax profit 42 47 68 19 176 43 66 70 22 201 Net profit 34 36 53 13 136 33 50 54 17 153 Sales growth 6.1 5.0 9.0 10.4 7.6 9.3 9.2 7.5 6.8 8.2 OP growth 56.5 21.1 27.6 99.3 34.7 16.4 13.2 6.5 4.7 10.4 Pretax profit growth 10.5 -3.7 17.5 TTB 24.9 1.0 39.9 2.9 15.3 13.7 Net profit growth 12.7 -4.5 20.2 TTB 41.8 -3.8 41.6 1.5 27.5 13.2 OP margin 8.5 14.2 14.0 4.9 10.7 9.0 14.7 13.9 4.8 10.9 Net margin 10.7 9.6 13.3 3.9 9.6 9.4 12.4 12.6 4.7 10.0 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Revisions to Lotte ConfectioneryÊs 2011~12 earnings forecasts (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % Change % YoY 11F 12F 11F 12F 11F 12F 11F 12F Sales 1,462 1,536 1,532 1,643 4.8 6.9 8.2 7.2 Operating profit 150 161 167 181 11.3 12.6 10.4 8.3 Pretax profit 176 199 201 229 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.0 Net profit 138 155 153 175 11.5 12.6 13.2 14.0 OP margin 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.0 - - - - Net margin 9.4 10.1 10.0 10.6 - - - - Source: Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 3 February 28, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Figure 4.
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