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Lotte Confectionery (004990 KS) Food & Beverage August 30, 2011 Company Report Lotte Confectionery (004990 KS) Food & Beverage Expecting overseas momentum Woon-mok Baek +822-768-4158 [email protected] Trim TP to W2,000,000; Maintain Buy rating Amy Lee We trim our target price for Lotte Confectionery to W2,000,000 (from W2,200,000) +822-768-3066 because: 1) the companyÊs 2Q11 domestic earnings were weaker than expected [email protected] due to unfavorable weather and cost increases, and 2) our 2011 earnings forecasts were cut to reflect the companyÊs bleak 3Q outlook (low temperatures are likely to dampen strong seasonality for the ice cream business). Although the companyÊs overseas operations remain brisk, their earnings contribution is still insufficient to offset domestic sluggishness. However, we maintain our Buy rating, taking into account: 1) an expected earnings rebound in 2012 and 2) the rosy secular growth prospects for the companyÊs overseas business. Buy (Maintain) 2Q11 Review: Weak at home, but brisk overseas Target Price (12M, W) 2,000,000 Share Price (11/08/29,W) 1,538,000 Lotte Confectionery reported lower-than-expected 2Q11 results (under consolidated Expected Return (%) 30.0 K-IFRS). Revenues and operating profit expanded only 9.3% YoY and 3.1% YoY, EPS Growth (11F, %) -33.5 respectively. Despite strong confectionery sales, domestic revenues fell below our Market EPS Growth (11F, %) 2.3 estimate, growing only 6.6% YoY, due to tepid ice cream sales (caused by frequent P/E(11F, x) 23.2 rains). With the companyÊs COGS climbing 15.2% YoY, operating profit growth Market P/E(11F, x) 9.7 KOSPI 1,829.50 lagged behind revenue growth in 2Q. However, overseas revenues continued to Market Cap (Wbn) 2,186 prevail, jumping 25% YoY. Of note, Chinese revenues leaped by 40% YoY. Shares Outstanding (mn) 1 Pretax profit and net profit showed respective YoY growth of 10.6% and 9.7%, thanks Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 2 to a decline in equity-method losses. With Lotte Europe Holdings (ownership stake Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 4 of 32%; a holding company for the Russian subsidiary; engaging in confectionery Dividend Yield (11F, %) 0.3 Free Float (%) 49.0 and hotel businesses) posting smaller losses, Lotte Confectionery saw its equity- 52-Week Low 1,218,000 method losses decrease to W2.4bn in 2Q11, from W5.3bn in 2Q10. 52-Week High 1,908,000 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.5 Still optimistic about secular overseas growth Price Return Volatility (12M 2.0 In 2011, Lotte ConfectioneryÊs overseas revenues are projected to surge 45% YoY. Daily, %,SD) Foreign Ownership (%) 55.4 In particular, China is important for the company, given that Chinese operations Major Shareholder(s) account for 25% of the companyÊs total revenues. In 2011, Chinese revenues are Lotte Aluminum et al. (49.97%) expected to grow 40% YoY as Lotte Confectionery completed its facility investments Silchester International Investors LLP (8.99%) in China and finished the restructuring of its Chinese subsidiary (i.e., write-off of Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder Advisers, LLC uncollectible accounts receivable, termination of relationships with ailing customers, (6.5%) Price Performance and personnel reshuffling). (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -14.6 10.7 24.3 Relative -0.4 16.3 18.6 § Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 160 KOSPI 12/09 1,567 99 6.4 97 68,058 185 58 4.6 18.9 0.8 11.4 140 12/10 1,794 115 6.4 142 99,691 207 70 5.7 15.1 0.8 11.8 120 12/11F 1,897 152 8.0 94 66,277 235 97 3.5 23.2 0.8 10.0 100 12/12F 2,076 185 8.9 142 100,064 262 107 4.9 15.4 0.8 8.6 12/13F 2,234 207 9.3 175 122,766 293 142 5.6 12.5 0.7 7.2 80 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests 60 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates 40 8/10 12/10 4/11 8/11 Please read carefully important disclosures at the end of this report. August 30, 2011 Lotte Confectionery In light of the subsidiaryÊs efforts to expand its market share, promote the Lotte brand, expand its customer base through retail channel reorganization, and diversify its key brand portfolio, the secular outlook for Lotte ConfectioneryÊs China operations seems rosy. Although the Chinese subsidiary remains in the red, profitability should improve gradually, as revenue growth should enable it to increase capacity utilization and achieve economies of scale. We expect the subsidiary to break even by 2012. Once it turns to positive, its contribution to Lotte ConfectioneryÊs earnings is likely to expand quickly. Lotte Confectionery aims to become AsiaÊs top confectionery and ice cream player, generating annual consolidated revenues of W7.6tr by 2018 (including overseas revenues of W4.3tr). Table 1. Lotte ConfectioneryÊs 1H11 earnings results (Wbn, %) Value % YoY 1Q10 2Q10 1H10 1Q11 2Q11 1H11 1Q11 2Q11 1H11 Revenues 367 423 790 417 462 879 13.6 9.3 11.3 Operating profit 28 54 83 36 56 92 26.6 3.1 11.2 Pretax profit 34 45 79 38 50 88 11.4 10.6 10.9 Net profit 25 39 64 25 42 67 0.6 9.7 6.1 OP margin 7.7 12.9 10.5 8.6 12.1 10.5 - - - Net margin 6.8 9.1 8.0 6.0 9.2 7.7 - - - Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Quarterly earnings forecasts for Lotte Confectionery (Wbn, %) 2011F 2012F 1Q 2Q 3QF 4QF Annual 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF Annual Revenues 417 462 529 489 1,897 463 512 574 526 2,076 Operating profit 36 56 46 13 152 31 62 75 17 185 Pretax profit 38 50 16 4 119 31 60 73 21 185 Net profit 25 42 12 3 94 24 46 56 16 142 OP margin 8.6 12.1 8.7 2.8 8.0 6.8 12.2 13.0 3.2 8.9 Net margin 6.0 9.2 2.3 0.6 5.0 5.1 9.0 9.8 3.1 6.9 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 3. Revisions to Lotte ConfectioneryÊs 2011~2012F earnings forecasts (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % Change % YoY 11F 12F 11F 12F 11F 12F 11F 12F Revenues 1,923 2,099 1,897 2,076 -1.3 -1.1 5.7 9.4 Operating profit 162 189 152 185 -6.5 -1.9 32.4 22.0 Pretax profit 133 185 119 185 -10.0 -0.1 -16.5 54.9 Net profit 101 137 94 142 -6.3 3.7 -33.5 51.0 OP margin 8.4 9.0 8.0 8.9 - - - - Net margin 5.2 6.5 5.0 6.9 - - - - Note: A decline in 2011F net profit is attributable to the exclusion of Lotte ShoppingÊs equity-method gains (W85bn in 2010) Based on K-IFRS, Lotte Shopping = available-for-sale securities (not equity-method investments) Source: Daewoo Securities Research estimates Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 30, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Figure 1. Confectionery shipment growth Figure 2. Ice cream shipment growth ('000 tonnes) (%) ('000 tonnes) (%) 30 Confectionery shipments (L) 40 70 Ice cream shipments (L) 40 % YoY (R) % YoY (R) 60 30 25 20 50 20 40 10 20 0 30 0 20 -10 15 -20 10 -20 10 -40 0 -30 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Korea, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 3. CPI for confectionery Figure 4. CPI for ice cream (05=100) (05=100) 160 160 Ice cream Popsicles 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 60 80 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Statistics Korea, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 3 August 30, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Figure 5. 2011F Overseas revenue forecasts for Lotte Confectionery Figure 6. Long-term revenue targets for Lotte Confectionery (Wbn) (Wtr) 120 8 2010 Russia 2011 Vietnam Pakistan India 90 6 Guylian China 60 4 30 2 Domestic 0 0 Guylian China India Pakistan Vietnam Russia 2010 2011F 2018F Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 7. Lotte ConfectioneryÊs overseas markets **Belgium **China - In 2008, acquired Guylian, - Entered Chinese market in 1994 the premium chocolate brand **Russia - Subsidiaries: Lotte Food Holding (holding company) - Established Asia HQ in Shanghai, China - Lotte Europe Holdings Lotte China Investment (holding company) - Subsidiary: Lotte Confectionery Holdings - Expected to generate Lotte China Foods, Lotte Qingdao Foods profit from 2012 Lotte Ice, Lotte Packaging (Beijing) LH Foods (joint venture with HersheyÊs) - Operating branches: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Qingdao, **Pakistan Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu - Acquired Kolson in 2010 -MS: 2nd in snack,1st in pasta, 4th in biscuit - K.S. SULEMANJI ESMAILJI & SONS **Vietnam - In 2007, acquired BIBICA, - VietnamÊs 2nd largest confectionery company: Manufacturing base for Southeast Asia **India - Subsidiaries: BIBICA Corporation, Lotte Vietnam - Acquired Parrys in 2004 -MS: 3rd in Indian candy market **Indonesia - PT. Lotte Indonesia - Subsidiaries: Lotte Foods India, Lotte India **Taiwan - Lotte Taiwan **Philippines - Lotte Confectionery Pilipinas **Malaysia - Lotte Malaysia Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 4 August 30, 2011 Lotte Confectionery Lotte Confectionery (004990 KS/Buy/TP: W2,000,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/10 12/11F 12/12F 12/13F (Wbn) 12/10 12/11F 12/12F 12/13F Revenues 1,794 1,897 2,076 2,234 Current Assets 715 682 711 802 Cost of Sales 1,108 1,157 1,264 1,358 Cash and Cash Equivalents 227 176 163 219 Gross Profit 687 740 812 876 AR & Other Receivables 236 239 257 276 SG&A Expenses 572 579 629 669 Inventories 159 156 179 193 Operating Profit (Adj) 115 161 183 207 Other Current Assets 15 18 19 20 Operating Profit 115 152 185 207 Non-Current Assets 3,296 3,392 3,498 3,615 Non-Operating Profit 28 -51 0 27 Investments in Associates
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