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Food & Beverage Sector Note April 28, 2017 Food & Beverage Lotte Confectionery and Lotte Chilsung to also Overweight benefit from holding company conversion Company Rating TP (KRW) Lotte Confectionery BUY 250,000 Lotte holding company to also benefit three food companies Lotte Chilsung Lotte group announced plans to adopt a holding company structure. And, this BUY 2,250,000 Beverage should lift the value of Lotte Confectionary, Lotte Chilsung, Lotte Food and Lotte Lotte Food Hold - Shopping, which will be involved in the process of establishing Lotte Holdings (tentative name). As the Lotte group has the most complicated governance structure, including circular investments, improvements to managerial/governance transparency, managerial efficiency and the overall restructuring effects should outpace previous holding company conversions. Furthermore, equity value should improve as unlisted subsidiaries, including Korea Seven, Lotteria and Lotte Information & Communication, are expected to list. Furthermore, there are incentives for the three food players to increase synergies with Japanese affiliates, expand overseas operations and develop the value of property holdings. No reason for poor Lotte Confectionary share performance; Rakhat to return to operating company eventually After yesterday’s holding company announcement, shares of shares of Lotte Confectionary – which will be formed after merging the four investment companies (Lotte Confectionary Investment to merge with the other three investment companies after the spinoffs) – slipped 0.47%. First, there were concerns that the merger ratios of the investment companies is unfavorable as Lotte Shopping will have a larger stake in the holding company than Lotte Confectionary and as a re- rating occurred on the investment company news. While these subsidiaries are valued under a more aggressive DCF method, stakes do not appear overvalued as the total shareholder value of Korea Seven alone is estimated at W637bn. Second, the bigger concern is that Rakhat, a confectionary company in Kazakhstan, and other wholly-owned subsidiaries are being allocated to the investment company rather than the operating company. Typically, operating companies are valued higher than investment companies, and worries are mounting that synergies will be reduced as confectionary companies are separated. But, we believe stakes in these overseas confectionaries will be eventually transferred to the operating companies. The recently acquired overseas subsidiaries will be allocated to the investment companies as sales and stakes will be less than 30% that of the operating companies, so it is more favorable in terms of tax liabilities for the investment companies to hold these stakes. Furthermore, sales and stake ratios can change going forward. To establish a link between Lotte Holdings and the Lotte Confectionary operating company, the operating companies will have to hold stakes in the overseas subsidiaries after the spinoffs. As such, managerial efficiency improvements, a key value of the conversion, should not be eroded. Kyoung Ju Lee 822-3276-6269 [email protected] Youjin Jung 822-3276-6228 youjinjung @truefriend.com Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Food & Beverage Lotte Confectionary stakes to be revalued, synergies to grow with Lotte Japan Overall, Lotte Confectionary should benefit more from the holding company conversion. The value of equity stakes should grow backed by the listing of Korea Seven, Lotteria and other subsidiaries. If Lotte Shopping’s value grows after the spinoff, this would also bolster equity value. If the group’s plans proceed as expected, Shin Dong-Bin’s dominance over the group should be reinforced, and this will likely enhance synergies with Lotte Confectionary Japan. Over 70% of the Lotte group’s sales in Japan are generated from the food business, which is similar to that of Lotte Confectionary’s. If Lotte Confectionary Korea and Japan are combined, this would be the second-largest player in Asia. Given the potential synergies with Lotte Japan (Table 3), Lotte Confectionary shares should rise 26.9% compared to yesterday’s closing price, applying peer valuations. Lotte Chilsung investment stakes to be revalued, land value to grow Lotte Chilsung has more upside than Lotte Confectionary based on current share prices. Sales, OP and shareholders’ equity at the two companies are similar, but the market cap gap is almost 30%. As for Lotte Chilsung, the IPO of Lotte Information & Communications, Lotteria and other subsidiaries should bolster enterprise value. And, the value of the Seocho site may re-rate. Lotte World, which garnered substantial political pressure, has been completed, while efforts have been underway for several years to develop key property holdings in Seocho. If the Seocho property, which is allocated to the operating company, is valued at W1.5tn and affiliate stakes are valued at similar levels as peers, upside would reach 47.8% from the current share price. Meanwhile, the outlook for the beer division is robust, while the owner family may swap its stake in the operating company for a larger stake in the investment company. Figure 1. Lotte Holdings structure post divestiture Lotte Holdings Foreign Shopping Korea Seven Chilsung Lotte Giants Lotte Members subsidiaries Daehong Lotte Lotte HImart By the way Lotte Card Communications Development Asahi Lotte Global FRL Korea Lotte Logistics Lotte Insurance Lotte E&C Logistics Confectionery Woori Lotte Station Canon Korea Lotte.com Lotte Fujifilm Home shopping Building Food Lotte Gimhae Lotte JTB Lotte International Development CH Beverage Lotte Capital MJA Wine Suwon station Lotte Data Shopping town Communication Chungbuk Soju Songdo Hyundai info. Shopping town Baekhak Technology Beverage Korea STL Nestle Korea CS Distribution Lotteria Source: Lotte Group, Korea Investment & Securities 2 Food & Beverage Table 1. Split merger ratio Chilsung investment Confectionery Shopping Food investment investment (acquired) investment (merged) (acquired) Common Preferred (merged) A. Intrinsic value (W bn) 1,952.7 2,911.9 806.6 35.0 185.7 - Portion of intrinsic value 33.2% 49.4% 13.7% 0.6% 3.1% B. Shares outstanding 35,535,000 31,490,892 1,237,203 120,000 1,369,436 pre-divestiture (shares) C. Divestiture ratio per 70.4% 10.7% 35.4% 35.4% 17.4% share D. Shares outstanding post-divestiture (BxC, 25,012,241 3,368,845 437,857 42,469 237,566 shares) E. Intrinsic value (A/D) 78,070 864,374 1,842,221 823,202 781,717 F. Stock merger ratio (Acquired value per share 1.00 11.07 23.60 23.60 10.01 /Merged value per share) G. Divestiture/merger 1.00 1.18 8.35 8.35 1.74 ratio(CxF) H. Shares 25,012,241 37,299,024 10,332,128 1,002,143 2,378,750 outstanding(BxG, shares) Source: Lotte Group, Korea Investment & Securities Table 2. Ownership status of investment and operating companies Lotte Confectionery Lotte Chilsung Lotte Food Investment company Operating company Investment company Operating company Investment company Operating company Available for sale Available for sale Available for sale Lotte Qingdao Foods PT. LOTTE RND Center PT. LOTTE RND Center financial asset financial asset financial asset Lotte Confectionary Daehong Lotte Chilsung Beverage Lotte Shopping Lotte Global Logistics Lotte Global Logistics (S.E.A) Pte Communication Lotte Food Lotte Taiwan Lotte E&C Lotte Asahi Lotte Logistics Igis I Corporation Lotte Shopping I Lotte Food Igis I Corporation Lotte tation :uilding Lotte tation :uilding Lotteria I Lotteria I (orea even I Investment in affiliated Investment in affiliated companies companies Lotte Europe Holdings Chilippines,Inc. :.V. I I Lotte Lotte Investment in Investment in Lotte Food( eperate) Confectionery( eperate) Chilsung( eperate) subsidiaries subsidiaries Lotte Confectionery Chungbu1 oju Holdings :.V. Ra1hat , C :ae1ha1 :everage I Lotte Aodeli :everage I Joint venture investment stock Lotte Nestle (orea ourceE Lotte Broup, (orea Investment * ecurities 3 Food & Beverage Table 3 . Lotte Confectionery change in value post -divestiture (3 bn, X ) Comment Elimination of subsidiaries net income Scenario 1 Aperating company NC 52.3 from investment company (Worst) Blobal peers CE 20.4 CE applied to operating co 20.4 Total 1,271.3 Investment Net asset 1,843.0 company C: applied to investment co 0.7 Industry average Total 1,290.1 Aperating company NC 2,551.4 Blobal peers CE 215.50 Elimination of subsidiaries net income Scenario 2 Aperating company NC 52.3 from investment company (Moderate 1) Blobal peers CE 20.4 CE applied to operating co 20.4 Total 1,271.3 Investment Net asset 1,843.0 2015 company Cremium compared to industry C: applied to investment co 1.0 average Total 1,843.0 Total 3,114.3 upside 2.50 Elimination of subsidiaries net income Scenario 3 Aperating company NC 52.3 from investment company (Moderate 2) Blobal peers CE 20.4 CE applied to operating co 20.4 Total 1,271.3 Investment Net asset 1,843.0 company Core ubsidiaries ta1e :oo1 value Target value 4iff. Lotte hopping 8.70 548.1 838.7 290.5 Lotte Chilsung 19.30 355.5 544.2 188.5 (orea even 15.50 104.1 105.1 1.0 (orea 4ata Communication 5.10 39.5 43.1 3.5 Lotteria 13.50 78.7 75.0 (2.7) ubtotal 480.9 Total 2,323.9 C: applied to investment co 0.7 Industry average ubtotal 1,525.7 Total 2,898.1 upside 24.50 Elimination of subsidiaries net income Scenario 4 Aperating company NC 52.3 from investment company (Best) Blobal peers CER 20.4 Cremium rate 200 Considering synergy with Lotte ,apan CE applied to operating co 24.5 Total 1,525.5 Investment Core ubsidiaries 1,843.0 company Lotte hopping ta1e :oo1 value Fair value 4iff. Lotte Chilsung 8.70 548.1 838.7 290.5 (orea even 19.30 355.5 544.2 188.5 (orea 4ata Communication 15.50 104.1 105.1 1.0 Lotteria 5.10 39.5 43.1 3.5 ubtotal 13.50 78.7 75.0 (2.7) Core ubsidiaries 480.9 Lotte hopping 2,323.9 C: applied to investment co 1.0 Industry average Total 2,323.9 Total 3,849.5 upside 25.90 NoteE 1.
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