Belarusians’ views on the political crisis

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 14 and 20 January 2021 Notes on methodology

We surveyed a total of 926 respondents between 14 and 20 January 2021. Our sample’s composition corresponds to the general structure of 's urban population in terms of gender, age, and the size of respondents’ town of residence. The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Although various sources claim that only 75–82 percent of the population of Belarus use the web, internet users do remain more economically and socially active. Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, as Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well additional risks faced by the researchers who collaborated for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible. The statistical margin of error of our sample of 926 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.22%. All answers of all respondents are available as a SAV file.

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2 QUESTION 1 Did you vote for in the Belarusian presidential elections in August 2020?

23.2%

Yes No

76.8%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 3 QUESTION 2 Which candidate did you vote for in the Belarusian presidential elections?

Aliaksandr Lukashenka 11.2% 0.5% 21.2% Siarhei Cherachen

Hanna Kanapatskaya 13.0% 1.1% 0.5% Andrey Dzmitryeu 2.2%

None of the above

I destroyed my ballot or removed it from the polling station I decline to answer 50.4%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 4 QUESTION 3 In your opinion, which of the people on the list would make a good ? Choose up to three answers

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Maxim Znak 0.7% Maria Kalesnikava 8.2% Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 11.2% Veranika Tsapkala 0.8% Valery Tsapkala 9.6% Alexander Lukashenka 23.9% Andrey Dmitriyeu 2.1% Pavel Latushka 18.3% Anatol Liabedzka 0.6% Zianon Pazniak 2.4% Siarhei Tsikhanouski 8.6% Maksim Bogrecov 0.4% Vladimir Makei 4.4% Natalya Kochanova 1.3% Yury Karayeu 1.1% Vladimir Karanik 1.3% Syarhey Rumas 7.3% Kirill Rudy 0.1% 35.3% Mykola Statkevich 4.2% Pavel Sevyarynec 1.4% No one 19.3%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 5 QUESTION 4 Which of these people do you think would make the best president of Belarus?

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Maxim Znak 0.3% Maria Kalesnikava 4.2% Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 4.0% Veranika Tsapkala 0.1% Valery Tsapkala 3.7% Alexander Lukashenka 27.4% Andrey Dmitriyeu 1.3% Pavel Latushka 12.1% Anatol Liabedzka 0.1% Zianon Pazniak 1.3% Siarhei Tsikhanouski 5.8% Vladimir Makei 2.3% Natalya Kochanova 0.4% Yury Karayeu 0.1% Vladimir Karanik 0.6% Syarhey Rumas 4.3% Viktar Babaryka 28.8% Mykola Statkevich 2.1% Pavel Sevyarynec 1.0%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 6 QUESTION 5 How do you feel about the protests against the current government?

19.7% Completely negative 25.4%

Rather negative

I'm not sure 16.5% Rather positive

18.6% Completely positive

19.8%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 7 QUESTION 6 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the events that have taken place in Belarus in the past months?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I’m convinced that the election results were fraudulent 61.3% 24.8% 13.8%

I fully support peaceful protests 58.6% 24.5% 16.9%

Even if the elections weren’t completely transparent, I’m still happy with the 21.6% 18.0% 60.4% results overall I believe that the security agencies resorted to unjustified and excessive 67.2% 18.5% 14.3% force when breaking up protests on 9-11 August The actions of law enforcement during the break-up of protests was largely 20.1% 16.0% 63.9% justified

Violence against protesters must stop immediately 70.3% 17.2% 12.5%

I believe that the events of 9-11 August at the detention centre on Okrestina 60.1% 26.8% 13.2% Street should be considered torture I believe that the scale of violations committed by law enforcement officers 24.6% 22.6% 52.8% has been somewhat exaggerated

Agree Unsure Disagree

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 8 QUESTION 6 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the events that have taken place in Belarus in the past months?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I believe that protesters should have been dealt with even more harshly 10.6% 12.8% 76.7%

I would agree to an amnesty for law enforcement officers who used 30.8% 38.7% 30.4% excessive force against protesters if it would hasten the departure of… I sometimes feel that I haven't done enough to help overthrow the 39.8% 47.4% 12.9% Lukashenka regime I believe that the government should negotiate with those who don’t agree 70.2% 18.2% 11.6% with the election results

I think that protest activities are starting to wind down 51.1% 22.9% 26.0%

The government’s refusal to participate in negotiations could lead to an 57.0% 27.1% 15.9% increase in violence from both sides If the government refuses to negotiate, we risk ending up in a civil war 43.5% 32.7% 23.8%

An increase in violence from the government will sooner or later cause 54.1% 29.2% 16.7% protesters to respond in kind

Agree Unsure Disagree

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 9 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

There are too many civil servants and government bodies in Belarus 3.2%3.2% 13.2% 31.8% 48.5%

Most money in Belarus goes to Minsk; not much remains for regional capitals, let 2.6%8.3% 25.2% 38.6% 25.3% alone district centres Loss-making government enterprises should be shut down, even if it leads to 9.2% 24.0% 25.9% 26.7% 14.1% growth in unemployment for 3-6 months

Belarus is dealing with the economic crisis better than its neighbours 33.9% 24.7% 23.6% 13.5% 4.3%

Belarus has good conditions for fostering business and entrepreneurship 32.8% 29.9% 19.4% 14.9% 2.9%

The vast majority of government officials, including powerful ones, are incompetent 3.6% 12.8% 21.4% 33.8% 28.4% and do not possess the necessary knowledge and skills to run a government

I often feel uncomfortable or ashamed of some of Lukashenka's words and deeds 6.7% 7.9% 16.5% 21.9% 47.0%

Alexander Lukashenka personally controls all aspects of government 2.5%6.6% 17.1% 29.1% 44.7%

It was Alexander Lukashenka who saved the economy and manufacturing sector 29.3% 19.3% 19.5% 20.4% 11.5% from collapse

Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 10 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Anyone who publicly opposes Lukashenka will be persecuted by the 4.3%8.2% 18.9% 25.7% 42.9% government There are government officials in Belarus who would make a better 5.3% 9.3% 26.1% 33.2% 26.1% president than Lukashenka, but they are afraid to stand as a candidate

Alexander Lukashenka is close to the people and sticks up for their interests 46.9% 15.4% 17.5% 12.8% 7.6%

Alexander Lukashenka is incapable of reforming Belarus’s political system 6.8% 8.6% 23.1% 20.5% 41.0% in a way that reflects the wishes of most Alexander Lukashenka mostly makes the right decisions, but they are 34.8% 18.1% 22.1% 19.6% 5.4% executed badly

A president should not be in power for longer than two terms in a row 6.4%6.7% 12.8% 22.1% 52.0%

Ordinary citizens of Belarus have no protection against arbitrary treatment 5.6%7.5% 13.4% 23.2% 50.4% from the government

The government's response to the current protests is completely justified 41.1% 16.3% 18.5% 14.8% 9.3%

Government bodies are not properly investigating the acts of violence 5.0%6.5% 19.3% 17.8% 51.4% perpetrated by law enforcement officers against protesters

Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 11 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Following the August elections, law enforcement officers used excessive 6.8% 8.7% 13.0% 19.3% 52.2% force

The law has stopped functioning in Belarus for the last half year 6.9% 11.9% 19.8% 20.3% 41.0%

Babaryka, Znak, Kolesnikova, Tsikhanousky, and a number of others were 8.0% 7.3% 22.0% 19.3% 43.4% jailed unjustly and baselessly

Belarus is handling the coronavirus pandemic well 30.6% 26.9% 16.3% 22.0% 4.2%

Belarus's healthcare system functions better than neighbouring countries’ 21.3% 26.6% 21.8% 24.9% 5.4%

Very many talented people have left the country since the elections 4.5%8.2% 17.3% 29.4% 40.5%

In today's Belarus, anyone who wants to work can 21.3% 34.3% 8.4% 23.7% 12.3%

Belarus’s educational system works better than neighbouring countries’ 17.7% 28.0% 25.6% 24.1% 4.7%

The ban on leaving the country for Belarusian citizens will help the country 39.8% 24.6% 14.9% 16.0% 4.7% deal with the coronavirus pandemic

Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 12 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

In general, I support necessary—if unpopular—government measures such 43.5% 25.8% 11.7% 14.2% 4.8% as increasing the retirement age, shortening maternity leave, and raising …

For the most part, Belarus can be described as a welfare state 18.3% 20.1% 21.5% 32.0% 8.0%

I believe that people who share my political views are in the minority 35.2% 24.2% 29.4% 8.5%2.7%

I don’t actually care what our country's flag is 27.3% 20.4% 13.5% 23.1% 15.8%

The white-red-white flag is a fascist symbol that ought to be banned 42.1% 15.2% 19.0% 8.6% 15.0%

Large-scale American and EU sanctions will do harm to Belarus 9.9% 16.8% 26.2% 32.0% 15.2%

A regime change will only benefit those who come to power. Ordinary 17.4% 20.8% 18.3% 24.6% 18.8% people will probably suffer Tsikhanouskaya and her party DO NOT truly express the interests of people 22.7% 16.7% 21.6% 16.1% 22.9% like me

Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 13 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% I believe that supporters of the protest movement are generally more 27.3% 18.0% 25.6% 17.6% 11.5% aggressive towards their ideological opponents than those who support… Protest leaders don’t have a concrete plan of action for what they will do 12.5% 16.9% 20.8% 27.8% 22.0% once they assume power

The agenda of protest leaders is too radical for most of the country 14.2% 18.3% 42.3% 16.4% 8.8%

Tsikhanouskaya and her party are being financed by Western intelligence 19.1% 14.1% 31.2% 18.4% 17.2% agencies Neither the government nor the protest leaders are doing anything 6.0% 15.3% 25.8% 36.5% 16.5% constructive to overcome the crisis If Alexander Lukashenka were to suddenly disappear, representatives of the 11.0% 20.1% 27.9% 29.7% 11.3% protest movement would be able to cooperate with government officials to… The government and protest leaders should attempt to engage in dialogue 3.5%3.9%11.7% 45.8% 35.2% and search for mutually beneficial solutions Protest leaders are not really trying to engage in dialogue with government 18.7% 24.1% 23.6% 19.7% 13.9% representatives If Viktar Babaryka were in the place of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the ruling 8.1% 15.2% 45.0% 26.2% 5.5% elite and protest leaders would already have come to an agreement

Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 14 QUESTION 8 In your opinion, when will Alexander Lukashenka cease being the president of Belarus?

By March of 2021 12.5% 6.0% 8.9% By June of 2021 5.5% By the end of 2021

In 2022 (in two years) 22.0% In 2023-2024 (longer than two years, but before his term ends) In 2025 (when his term ends) 27.8%

In 2030 (he’ll serve another term) 7.7% In 2035 or later (he’ll serve at least 9.6% two more terms)

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 15 QUESTION 9 Changes of leadership can make people worry for various, often justified reasons, especially when one leader has run a country for such a long time. Which consequences of a leadership change do you personally worry about? Please choose up to three options 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Persecution of those who support the current government 7.4% Collapse of the current government system 17.2% An increase in crime 16.8% Cancellation of social welfare benefits 19.9% Growth of unemployment 27.2% Sale of government assets 17.6% Decrease in salaries and pensions 38.6% Deficits of food and essential goods 8.6% Growth in corruption 17.7% Breaking off relations with Russia 17.1% Other (please specify) 1.2% I’m not sure 6.0%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 16 QUESTION 10 Generally speaking, what is your attitude towards Russian President Vladimir Putin?

18.4% 15.1%

Very positive Mostly positive Mostly negative 11.7% Very negative I’m not sure 38.8% 15.9%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 17 QUESTION 11 Recently, has your attitude towards Vladimir Putin improved, got worse, or stayed the same?

8.4%

Improved

Got worse 52.1% 39.5% Stayed the same

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 18 QUESTION 12 Following the events of August 2020, under the leadership of Lukashenka Belarus received a loan from the Russian Federation worth several billion dollars. In your opinion, if the protest leaders assume power, should Belarus pay off this debt to Russia?

Belarus SHOULD NOT pay back debts to Russia accepted by 39.3% Alexander Lukashenka after August of 2020 Belarus SHOULD pay back debts to Russia accepted by Alexander Lukashenka after August of 2020 60.7%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 19 QUESTION 13 In your opinion, is the Russian government attempting to draw closer to representatives of the protest movement, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya or the Coordination Council?

6.1%

Yes

No

93.9%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 20 QUESTION 14 And is Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya or the Coordination Council attempting to draw closer to Russia?

36.9%

Yes

No 63.1%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 21 QUESTION 15 In your opinion, are Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Coordination Council pursuing a closer relationship with Russia or Western countries?

22.3%

Western countries

Russia 5.2%

I'm not sure

72.5%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 22 QUESTION 16 To what extent do you trust or distrust the institutions listed below?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Independent media 10.2% 20.1% 20.2% 41.9% 7.6%

The Orthodox Church 12.5% 20.0% 22.1% 34.0% 11.4%

The campaign of Viktar Babaryka 16.7% 14.8% 25.8% 31.6% 11.1%

The Catholic Church 11.8% 15.9% 30.5% 33.5% 8.2%

My company’s management 12.8% 21.4% 25.9% 32.6% 7.4%

The Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya campaign 27.9% 13.3% 20.1% 25.7% 13.1%

The Coordination Council 21.2% 16.4% 24.1% 27.7% 10.5%

Independent trade unions 11.1% 21.2% 28.5% 33.4% 5.7%

The army 22.5% 24.2% 16.8% 26.3% 10.2%

The tax authorities 25.1% 25.8% 18.4% 26.9% 3.7%

The police 39.6% 23.6% 11.5% 19.7% 5.6%

Distrust completely Mostly distrust I’m not sure Mostly trust Trust completely Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 23 QUESTION 16 To what extent do you trust or distrust the institutions listed below?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

The President of the Republic of Belarus 47.3% 12.6% 16.1% 13.9% 10.2%

The Constitutional Court of the Republic of Belarus 40.0% 19.3% 17.5% 18.4% 4.9%

The National Anti-Crisis Management 15.8% 21.5% 40.8% 16.8% 5.2%

The Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus (the government) 38.2% 22.9% 17.1% 17.7% 4.1%

State security agencies 40.2% 21.1% 16.4% 16.2% 6.1%

Local government bodies 33.6% 30.1% 15.3% 18.1% 2.8%

Judicial bodies 43.0% 22.0% 15.0% 16.3% 3.8%

Official trade unions 36.3% 25.9% 18.1% 16.5% 3.3%

The Protestant Church 17.7% 21.3% 42.7% 15.9% 2.5%

The National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus (parliament) 41.2% 21.2% 19.3% 14.3% 4.0%

State-run media 48.1% 21.9% 13.7% 13.7% 2.6%

The Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus (Tsentrizbirkom, TsIK) 55.0% 14.3% 15.7% 10.3% 4.6%

Distrust completely Mostly distrust I’m not sure Mostly trust Trust completely Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 24 QUESTION 17 An All-Belarusian People’s Assembly is planned for February. Do you know about this event, have you heard something about it, or is it your first time hearing about it?

19.3% I know all about it 33.2%

I’ve heard something about it but I don’t know the details

This is my first time hearing about it

47.6%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 25 QUESTION 18 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (APA)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

The APA is a good representative for all Belarusians 14.0% 20.4% 65.6%

The APA's decisions can be trusted 15.8% 22.9% 61.3%

I think it would be right for the APA to change the constitution or create a new one 18.5% 30.2% 51.3%

The APA does not truly represent the interests of people like me 62.4% 23.9% 13.7%

The APA is a puppet organisation created to further the interests of Lukashenka 61.3% 25.4% 13.2%

I don’t understand the purpose of the APA's meeting 56.2% 20.2% 23.6%

The APA is an effective way to foster dialogue between the government and its 18.3% 25.6% 56.1% opponents

The APA expresses the beliefs of the people 15.9% 21.4% 62.7%

I think it would be acceptable for a new president to be elected at the APA rather 7.5% 24.5% 68.0% than via a general election

Agree I'm not sure Disagree

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 26 QUESTION 19 Many opinions exist on how government posts should be filled. These opinions can be divided into three main groups:

1) Officials should be appointed to government posts by the head of state 2) Officials should be elected by their peers, just as cardinals elect the pope or members of parliament elect a prime minister 3) Officials should be appointed through a general election, just as presidents are elected by eligible citizens

In your opinion, how should the following posts be filled? You may indicate several answers for each question.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Head of the Council of the Republic (the upper chamber of the National… 13.7% 44.0% 33.2% 13.1% Head of the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of the National… 8.8% 48.5% 31.8% 14.5% Members of the House of Representatives 6.6% 26.6% 56.7% 13.4% Prime Minister 32.5% 36.1% 23.9% 11.3% Health Minister 33.0% 42.8% 15.8% 12.0% Chair of the Constitutional Court 20.2% 47.0% 25.5% 12.1% Chairs of district courts 8.7% 52.6% 28.1% 13.9% Prosecutor General 26.1% 46.6% 19.9% 12.6% District prosecutors 9.2% 54.0% 25.3% 15.3% Heads of district-level internal-affairs departments 11.5% 50.6% 24.0% 17.4% Heads of the regions 17.7% 28.8% 46.3% 11.2% District heads 10.1% 31.2% 49.5% 12.7% Heads of major government-owned enterprises 19.3% 50.7% 19.0% 15.3% University rectors 13.6% 59.4% 14.8% 14.9%

Appointed by the head of state Elected by colleagues Elected by the general public I'm not sure Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 27 QUESTION 20 Which of the following state symbols do you feel closest to?

26.0% The white-red-white flag, the Pahonia emblem 32.6%

The red and green flag, the official emblem of Belarus

None of the above

41.4%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 28 QUESTION 21 Two people delivered a New Year's address to the Belarusian nation: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Alexander Lukashenka. Which of these addresses did you watch LIVE (at 23:50 on 31 December 2020)?

21.2% The address of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

The address of Alexander Lukashenka 47.4%

Neither 31.4%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 29 QUESTION 22 Which of these addresses did you watch RECORDINGS of?

19.4% The address of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

The address of Alexander Lukashenka 15.6%

Neither 68.1%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 30 QUESTION 23 Belarus sometimes applies the ultimate form of punishment: the death penalty. Do you approve or disapprove of the death penalty in Belarus?

10.4% 16.8% I fully approve

I mostly approve 17.5%

I mostly disapprove

I disapprove entirely 29.8%

I’m not sure/I'd rather not say 25.6%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 31 QUESTION 24 In general, do you believe that most people are trustworthy, or that people should be very cautious before trusting others?

30.4%

Most people are trustworthy

People should be very cautious

69.6%

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 32 Contact information Dr Ryhor Astapenia [email protected]

Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 33