DOCSLIB.ORG

Belarusian Y E a R B O O K 2020

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Belarusian Y E a R B O O K 2020 WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS NASHE MNENIE (‘OUR OPINION’) AGENCY FOR SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXPERT APPRAISAL Belarusian Y E A R B O O K 2020 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic oF Belarus in 2019 LOHVINAЎ Vilnius 2020 СOMPILED AND EDITED BY Аnatoly Pankovski and Valeria Kostyugova SCIENTIFIC REVIEWERS AND CONSULTANTS Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (NOVAK Laboratory of Axiometrical Research); Piotr Rudkovski, Doctor of Philosophy (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies — BISS); Irina Dounaeva, PhD (inDepenDent expert); Olga Shparaga, PhD, Associate Professor (European College of Liberal Arts in Belarus — ECLAB); Andrei Kazakevich, Doctor of Political Sciences (Institute of Political StuDies “Political Sphere”); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic Research anD Outreach Center — BEROC). ENGLISH VERSION TRANSLATED BY Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov ENGLISH VERSION EDITED by Max Nuijens EDITED FOR PRINTING BY Stefani Kalinowskaya THE YEARBOOK IS PUBLISHED WITH SUPPORT OF The iDeas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the eDitorial boarD. ISSN 1822-4091 © Website of the Expert Community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2020 © Agency for Social and Political Еxpert Appraisal, 2020 © Logvino Literatūros namai, 2020 СONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 6 STATE AUTHORITIES Nikolai Burov Presidential Administration: Preparing For the sixth presiDential term 11 PoliN a Makarova Government: PerFect storm aheaD 19 А N drei PorotN ikov National Defense: Building new partnerships 28 А N drei k azakevich Parliament: Growing a new political feld 41 d M itry k ukhlei Local Authorities: Struggle for the fnancial support of the center 46 FOREIGN POLICY d e N is MelyaN tsou Belarus — European Union: Normalization without qualitative breakthroughs 59 А N atoly Pa N kovski Belarus — Russia: Two decades of regressive integration 70 G e NNady Maksak Belarus — Ukraine: New people, old rules 80 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 3 А NNa Maria d y N er Belarus — Poland: Emphasis on security 87 А N drei Fyodorov Belarusian-American Relations: A viscious circle 96 s erG ei Bo G daN Asian, African, and Latin American Countries: Strategic reorientation or disorientation? 104 SOCIETY vadiM Mozheyko Civil Society: From street aDvocacy to internal fnancing 117 valeria k ostyuG ova Democratic Organizations: Capacity building 125 Е leN a a rtioM e N ko Mass Media: Seeming calmness amid accumulating threats 134 vladiM ir d ouN aev Schools anD Universities: EDucation policy deFormations 143 А N drei l avrukhiN Science anD Innovation: MoDernization insteaD oF innovation? 152 А lexaN der s hraM ko Religious Affairs: Period of unfulflled hopes and expectations 163 А N drei vitushka Health Care: Patching up old problems with olD methoDs 171 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 М axiM z h B a N kov Belarusian Culture: On the other siDe of the nation 181 А N drei vardoM atsky Public Opinion: A geopolitical shift 191 N atalia r yaB ova Research anD Analytical Centers: “Oligopolization” 197 ECONOMY d M itry k ruk Macroeconomic Situation: Typical year of stagnation 211 А lexaN der Mukha Foreign Exchange Market: Will there be enough reserves to withstand recession? 221 vladiM ir a kulich Labor Market Contraction 231 А lexaN der avtushko-s ikorski Energy Sector: End of the oil and gas rent 243 М aria a kulova Foreign Investment: IT is an island 252 О l G a l oiko IT Sector: Rapid growth and political empowerment 261 AUTHORS 269 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 5 EDITORIAL FOREWORD Belarusian Yearbook 2020 constitutes a comprehensive analysis of developments in the key segments of the state and society throughout 2019. The parliamentary election campaign (“the dress rehearsal for the presidential campaign slated for 2020”) amidst the exhaustion of resources for recovery growth and a gradual sinking into recession, extremely low effciency of ne- gotiations with Russia, as well as attempts of the authorities — inconsistent and belated — to adapt to the rapidly changing environment were the main processes that shaped the political agenda in 2019. Main trenDs oF the year Domestic policy • Against the backdrop of the 2019 parliamentary elections and the upcoming presidential campaign of 2020, all of the socioeconomic and political reforms remained frozen, with the political leaDership anD the security/law enForcement block actively opposing any “liberal” initiative. • The personnel challenge exacerbated, which was manifested in the lack of competences and professionalism of the presi- Dential “vertical”. • Representatives of alternative political Forces were ousted from the parliament following the parliamentary elections of 2019, party representation enhanced due to loyalist left- wing parties, and the parliament’s international cooperation weakened. 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 Foreign policy • Overuse of regional security references in foreign policy in order to improve offcial Minsk’s international reputation; intensifed collaboration with individual EU member states. • A stalemate of the Belarus–Russia integration; extremely low effciency of negotiations between the Belarusian and Rus- sian leaDers. Economics • Ending recovery growth (slower output growth, inconsistent nature of economic activity). • Growing unfavorable momentum in foreign economic ope- rations, the external debt repayment schedule still being tense. • Growing need for new external fnancing. • Accumulating crisis disproportions in the labor market (spe- cifcally, labor shortage). Public opinion • Drop in the number of supporters of a union with Russia and increased number of proponents of European integration. • Slightly poorer assessments of the economic situation in the country and the economic status of householDs. Since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint enDeavor of the Belarusian expert community to com- pile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contem- porary history. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2020 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists rep- resenting various think tanks, including the Institute of Politi- cal Studies “Political Sphere”, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), Belarusian Institute for Public Administration Reform and Transformation (BIPART), School of Young Mana- gers in Public Administration (SYMPA), Minsk Dialogue Expert BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 7 Initiative, Ostrogorski Centre, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), MACROCENTER Macroeco- nomic Research Center, Belarus Security Blog analytical proj- ect, Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism (Kyiv), Institute of International Relations (Warsaw, Poland), Belarusian Analytical Workroom (BAW, Warsaw), Public Bologna Committee, Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal (Vilnius), and the web- site of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (“Our Opinion”). 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 S T A T E AUTHORITIES PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION: PREPARING FOR THE SIXTH PRESIDENTIAL TERM Nikolai Burov Summary In 2019, the Presidential Administration of Belarus made determined ef- forts to get ready for upcoming challenges, primarily to ensure Alexan- der Lukashenko’s re-election in a diffcult socio-economic and political situation. An attempt was made to reconsider the ideological compo- nent of domestic policy, reinforce the ideological platform and provide Follow-up inFormation and analytical support For the presiDential verti- cal. The composition of the ADministration was consiDerably reneweD. However, the Administration’s efforts were ineffective largely due to the inertia of the vertical and the conservative position of the head of state. As a result, the most important tasks — creation of an ideological platform for the presidential campaign, personnel policy, development of a new version of the law on public service and possible amenDments to the Constitution — have been performed in a highly conservative way. Trends: • Increasing problem of poor professionalism of the presidential vertical; • Request for ideological backing in the diffcult socio-economic and foreign policy situation; • Political emphasis on the preservation oF the inDepenDence anD so- vereignty of Belarus; • Renewal of the PresiDential ADministration leaDership as a conceptual solution. Ideological platform update One of the paramount tasks of the Presidential Administration in 2019 was to provide ideological backup to the parliamenta- ry and the future presidential elections. Two main propaganda STATE AUTHORITIES 11 emphases were chosen out of several options: first, to highlight the merits of the incumbent president in overcoming the crisis of the 1990s (Alexander Lukashenko spoke about this when visi- ting the Presidential Academy of Public Administration on Oc- tober 18, and addressing the upper and lower chambers of the parliament on December 5), and, second, to emphasize the value of Belarus’ independence and sovereignty, which only the in- cumbent president can guarantee. Attempts to add other topics failed. Much hope was pinned on the possible propaganda effect of the 2nd European Games, but the public remained generally inDiFFerent about them. The work with petitions fled by individuals who point at lo- cal issues was used, as always, as a tool to legitimize the sitting government. Once again, the Administration was instructed to closely monitor the compliance with the requirement to quickly respond to people’s complaints. To this end, monitoring groups were
Load more

Recommended publications
  • GOP Attacks Dems' $1.9T COVID-19 Relief Bill from All Angles
    Taste My Aruba: Friday Sustainable, February 12, 2021 Sea-to-table T: 582-7800 Savor www.arubatoday.com facebook.com/arubatoday instagram.com/arubatoday Page 10 Aruba’s ONLY English newspaper GOP attacks Dems’ $1.9T COVID-19 relief bill from all angles By A. FRAM, R. ALONSO- Democratic leaders hope ZALDIVAR and K. FREKING for House passage later Associated Press this month, with Senate ap- WASHINGTON (AP) — Re- proval and a bill on Biden’s publicans are attacking desk by mid-March. the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion “This is the moment,” said COVID-19 relief package Ways and Means Com- as too costly, economically mittee Chairman Richard damaging and overtly par- Neal, D-Mass., citing the tisan, an all-angles attempt pandemic’s human and to derail new President economic toll. Joe Biden’s top priority as As committees worked, it starts moving through a Republicans proposed Congress his party controls amendments spotlighting only narrowly.Four House what they see as the leg- committees worked Thurs- islation’s soft spots. Their day on their pieces of themes were clear: Demo- sweeping legislation that crats are overspending, would send $1,400 pay- hurting workers and em- ments to many Americans. ployers’ job markets, being It would also provide hun- too generous to some im- dreds of billions for state migrants, inviting fraud and and local governments rewarding political allies — and to boost vaccination allegations that Democrats efforts, raise tax credits dismiss as ludicrous. In this Feb. 9, 2021, photo, President Joe Biden meets with business leaders to discuss a coronavi- for children and increase rus relief package in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.
    [Show full text]
  • Belarusians' Views on the Political Crisis
    Belarusians’ views on the political crisis Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 14 and 20 January 2021 Notes on methodology We surveyed a total of 926 respondents between 14 and 20 January 2021. Our sample’s composition corresponds to the general structure of Belarus's urban population in terms of gender, age, and the size of respondents’ town of residence. The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Although various sources claim that only 75–82 percent of the population of Belarus use the web, internet users do remain more economically and socially active. Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, as Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well additional risks faced by the researchers who collaborated for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible. The statistical margin of error of our sample of 926 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.22%. All answers of all respondents are available as a SAV file. Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2 QUESTION 1 Did you vote for in the Belarusian presidential elections in August 2020? 23.2% Yes No 76.8% Chatham
    [Show full text]
  • Belarus INDIVIDUALS
    CONSOLIDATED LIST OF FINANCIAL SANCTIONS TARGETS IN THE UK Last Updated:12/08/2021 Status: Asset Freeze Targets REGIME: Belarus INDIVIDUALS 1. Name 6: ALIASHKEVICH 1: ALIAKSANDR 2: MIKHAILAVICH 3: n/a 4: n/a 5: n/a. a.k.a: ALESHKEVICH, Alexander, Mikhailovich Position: (1) First Deputy Head of the District Department of Internal Affairs in Moskovski District, Minsk (2) Head of Criminal Police Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):BEL0016 Date designated on UK Sanctions List: 31/12/2020 (UK Statement of Reasons):In Aliaksandr Aliashkevich’s position as First Deputy Head of the District Department of Internal Affairs in Moskovski/Moscow District of the city of Minsk and Head of Criminal Police, he is responsible for the repression and intimidation campaign in that district against peaceful protesters in the wake of the 2020 presidential election, in particular arbitrary arrests, excessive use of force and ill‐treatment, including torture. (Gender):Male Listed on: 05/10/2020 Last Updated: 31/12/2020 Group ID: 13938. 2. Name 6: ASTREIKA 1: ALIAKSANDR 2: VIACHASLAVAVICH 3: n/a 4: n/a 5: n/a. Title: Major-General Of Militia (Police Force) DOB: 22/12/1971. POB: Kapyl, Former USSR Currently Belarus a.k.a: ASTREIKO, Alexander, Viacheslavovich Nationality: Belarusian Position: Head of the Department of Internal Affairs of Brest Oblast Executive Committee Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):BEL0021 Date designated on UK Sanctions List: 31/12/2020 (UK Statement of Reasons):Aloaksandr Astreika is Head of the Department of Internal Affairs of Brest Oblast Executive Committee and Major General of Police.
    [Show full text]
  • Belarusian Yearbook 2017
    WeBsite of the expeRt Community of BeLARus Nashe MNeNie 1 (‘Our OpiNiON’) AgenCy foR soCiAL And poLitiCAL expeRt AppRAisAL Belarusian Y e a r b o o k 2017 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2016 Lohvinaŭ Vilnius 2017 2 Belarusian YearBook 2017 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova english version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov english version edited by Max Nuijens scientific reviewers and consultants: Oleg Manaev, Doctor of sociology (independent institute of socio- economic and Political studies – iisePs); Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (laboratory of axiometrical research noVak); Alexei Pikulik, Doctor of Political sciences (Belarusian institute for strategic studies – Biss), Irina Dounaev, Ph. D. (independent expert); Olga Shparaga, Ph. D., associate Professor (european College of Liberal Arts in Belarus – eClaB); Andrei Kazakievich, Doctor of Political sciences (institute of Political studies “Political sphere”); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian economic research and outreach Center – BEROC); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the slovak annual Global Report). Prepress by: Stefani Kalinowskaya The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. © Website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2017 issn 1822-4091
    [Show full text]
  • Tracing Authoritarian Learning in Belarus, Moldova, Russia And
    Tracing Authoritarian Learning in Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine By Stephen Hall SSEES UCL PhD Thesis Word Count: 99,492 I, Stephen Hall confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. 1 Abstract The thesis addresses how authoritarian regimes remain in power, and the processes of learning they engage in, using the case studies of Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. I investigate six propositions, arguing that firstly, authoritarian learning differs from democratic learning because authoritarian regimes are concerned principally with survival and so learn best practices to ensure that they possess a full palette of survival practices. Secondly, there is a flattened learning hierarchy or network between authoritarian regimes. Thirdly, internal networks are important for learning among authoritarian regimes. Fourthly, success and failure are equally important for authoritarian learning. Fifthly, internal examples are as relevant to authoritarian learning as external examples. Sixthly, authoritarian regimes use a full palette of survival practices than just relying on repression. Therefore, authoritarian regimes are more likely to be concerned than democratic regimes about survivial, and so they develop a full palette of survival practices. The thesis argues that learning hierarchies are flattened. Success and failure are as important to authoritarian learning as each other, with authoritarian regimes drawing on both successful and failed examples. Similarly, internal sources of learning are as relevant to understanding authoritarian learning as external examples. Lastly, authoritarian regimes have a full palette of survival strategies than just relying on repression.
    [Show full text]
  • The Protests in Belarus: Insights from Minsk and the Western View
    1 THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE Vilnius, Lithuania August, 2020 THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW 2 ANDREI YAHORAU Senior analyst of the Centre for European transforma- tion. Master of Political Science. A. Yahorau graduated from Belarusan State University, department of political science, and holds a master’s degree in political science. He has been working in the political research area since 2001. Andrei Yahorau is one of the founders of the only specialized political science magazine in Belarus “Politi- cal sphere” (Palitychnaja Sfera) and he is the magazine’s deputy editor. Since 2005 he has been an expert and the head of analytical group of the Humanitarian Techniques Agency. Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime, tained and severely beaten, and the beatings established as a result of a constitutional and torture continued at places of detention. coup in 1996, is currently facing the most se- The authorities’ goal was to quickly suppress rious political crisis in all the years of its ex- the protests; their tactics, however, produced istence. After the cynically rigged election on effects opposite to those intended. People on 9 August 2020, masses of people took to the the streets began to respond to the violence streets of their cities to protest. The official- by confronting the police. On the second day ly announced results of the election in which of protests, that is, on 10 August, protesters Lukashenko won 80.1 % of the vote, while his began erecting barricades in the streets of main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, received Minsk; in some cases, the confrontation be- just 10.1 %, radically diverged from the views of tween police and protesters lasted for several the majority of Belarusians.
    [Show full text]
  • CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM in BELARUS: IMITATION and REALITY Lukashenko’S Bleak Intention and the Pitfalls of Democratic Transition
    CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN BELARUS: IMITATION AND REALITY Lukashenko’s bleak intention and the pitfalls of democratic transition Andrei Yeliseyeu | December 2020 | The collecting of proposals by the authorities on amendments to the Constitution is nearing completion in Belarus. Having started this process, Lukashenko, in his traditional style, wants to shift the focus from the really pressing expectations and needs of Belarusian society to issues that are insignificant for Belarusians and preserve his power. Soviet parallels and the scenario with the presidency of Kachanova Well-crafted formulations about the constitutional process as a means of resolving the political crisis and a cure for public discord are designed to divert attention from the total delegitimization of Lukashenko and the legal default and criminal actions of state bodies. The OSCE report on the situation in Belarus within the framework of the Moscow Mechanism cites the assessment of the Secretary General of the World Organization against Torture Gerald Steybrock, from which it follows that this may be one of the most serious violations of international law: “Such cruel treatment of such a large number of Belarusians, which can confidently be called torture, is disgusting in its scale. Given its systematic nature and scale, it clearly indicates a crime against humanity.” The actual expectations of most Belarusians are the resignation of Lukashenko and the holding of fair elections to all government bodies, the return of legality in the country, including the release of political prisoners, as well as the trial for murders, torture, and beatings of civilians. The current pretense of constitutional reform does not in any way address these issues, especially considering that the process is entirely under Lukashenko’s con- trol.
    [Show full text]
  • Nazis' and Poles' Atrocities. State-Run TV Keeps Riding Its
    Nazis' and Poles' atrocities. State-run TV keeps riding its hobby-horse of 20th century wars while undermining the protests Monitoring of State TV Narratives in Belarus (15/03/2021 – 21/03/2021) The purpose of this monitoring is to study how the Belarusian state conveys its ideological narrative. The most important mechanism for conveying its narrative is the evening broadcast. Then the informational function of media is complemented, and sometimes replaced by, the broadcasting of official ideological messages. We monitor the outputs of the Agency of the Television News (ATN), which prepares the news broadcasts for the Belarus- 1 channel (“Panorama” and Sunday’s “Main Airtime”), the channel ONT (“Our News”, “Saturday’s Edition” and “Contours”), and the channel STV (“24 Hour News” and “The Week”). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Throughout the week, state channels have been promoting political and historical topics. The key narrative was the preservation of the memory of the Second World War, the atrocities of the Nazis during the war years and building patriotic education on this basis. Monitoring of State TV Narratives in Belarus Page 1 of 11 Issue 35 (15/03/2021 – 21/03/2021) From the historical theme, the state-run TV seamlessly transitioned to denouncing opponents, frequently employing a technique of linking the complicity with the Nazis with the opposition symbols, as well as airing anti-Polish rants in connection with the centenary of the Peace of Riga, after which Western Belarus became part of Poland. STV editorials retain the most aggressive orientation fishing for geopolitical sensations, conspiracy theories and mystical explanations of what is happening in the country and the world.
    [Show full text]