WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS NASHE MNENIE (‘OUR OPINION’) AGENCY FOR SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXPERT APPRAISAL Belarusian Y E A R B O O K 2020 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic oF Belarus in 2019 LOHVINAЎ Vilnius 2020 СOMPILED AND EDITED BY Аnatoly Pankovski and Valeria Kostyugova SCIENTIFIC REVIEWERS AND CONSULTANTS Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (NOVAK Laboratory of Axiometrical Research); Piotr Rudkovski, Doctor of Philosophy (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies — BISS); Irina Dounaeva, PhD (inDepenDent expert); Olga Shparaga, PhD, Associate Professor (European College of Liberal Arts in Belarus — ECLAB); Andrei Kazakevich, Doctor of Political Sciences (Institute of Political StuDies “Political Sphere”); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic Research anD Outreach Center — BEROC). ENGLISH VERSION TRANSLATED BY Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov ENGLISH VERSION EDITED by Max Nuijens EDITED FOR PRINTING BY Stefani Kalinowskaya THE YEARBOOK IS PUBLISHED WITH SUPPORT OF The iDeas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the eDitorial boarD. ISSN 1822-4091 © Website of the Expert Community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2020 © Agency for Social and Political Еxpert Appraisal, 2020 © Logvino Literatūros namai, 2020 СONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 6 STATE AUTHORITIES Nikolai Burov Presidential Administration: Preparing For the sixth presiDential term 11 PoliN a Makarova Government: PerFect storm aheaD 19 А N drei PorotN ikov National Defense: Building new partnerships 28 А N drei k azakevich Parliament: Growing a new political feld 41 d M itry k ukhlei Local Authorities: Struggle for the fnancial support of the center 46 FOREIGN POLICY d e N is MelyaN tsou Belarus — European Union: Normalization without qualitative breakthroughs 59 А N atoly Pa N kovski Belarus — Russia: Two decades of regressive integration 70 G e NNady Maksak Belarus — Ukraine: New people, old rules 80 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 3 А NNa Maria d y N er Belarus — Poland: Emphasis on security 87 А N drei Fyodorov Belarusian-American Relations: A viscious circle 96 s erG ei Bo G daN Asian, African, and Latin American Countries: Strategic reorientation or disorientation? 104 SOCIETY vadiM Mozheyko Civil Society: From street aDvocacy to internal fnancing 117 valeria k ostyuG ova Democratic Organizations: Capacity building 125 Е leN a a rtioM e N ko Mass Media: Seeming calmness amid accumulating threats 134 vladiM ir d ouN aev Schools anD Universities: EDucation policy deFormations 143 А N drei l avrukhiN Science anD Innovation: MoDernization insteaD oF innovation? 152 А lexaN der s hraM ko Religious Affairs: Period of unfulflled hopes and expectations 163 А N drei vitushka Health Care: Patching up old problems with olD methoDs 171 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 М axiM z h B a N kov Belarusian Culture: On the other siDe of the nation 181 А N drei vardoM atsky Public Opinion: A geopolitical shift 191 N atalia r yaB ova Research anD Analytical Centers: “Oligopolization” 197 ECONOMY d M itry k ruk Macroeconomic Situation: Typical year of stagnation 211 А lexaN der Mukha Foreign Exchange Market: Will there be enough reserves to withstand recession? 221 vladiM ir a kulich Labor Market Contraction 231 А lexaN der avtushko-s ikorski Energy Sector: End of the oil and gas rent 243 М aria a kulova Foreign Investment: IT is an island 252 О l G a l oiko IT Sector: Rapid growth and political empowerment 261 AUTHORS 269 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 5 EDITORIAL FOREWORD Belarusian Yearbook 2020 constitutes a comprehensive analysis of developments in the key segments of the state and society throughout 2019. The parliamentary election campaign (“the dress rehearsal for the presidential campaign slated for 2020”) amidst the exhaustion of resources for recovery growth and a gradual sinking into recession, extremely low effciency of ne- gotiations with Russia, as well as attempts of the authorities — inconsistent and belated — to adapt to the rapidly changing environment were the main processes that shaped the political agenda in 2019. Main trenDs oF the year Domestic policy • Against the backdrop of the 2019 parliamentary elections and the upcoming presidential campaign of 2020, all of the socioeconomic and political reforms remained frozen, with the political leaDership anD the security/law enForcement block actively opposing any “liberal” initiative. • The personnel challenge exacerbated, which was manifested in the lack of competences and professionalism of the presi- Dential “vertical”. • Representatives of alternative political Forces were ousted from the parliament following the parliamentary elections of 2019, party representation enhanced due to loyalist left- wing parties, and the parliament’s international cooperation weakened. 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 Foreign policy • Overuse of regional security references in foreign policy in order to improve offcial Minsk’s international reputation; intensifed collaboration with individual EU member states. • A stalemate of the Belarus–Russia integration; extremely low effciency of negotiations between the Belarusian and Rus- sian leaDers. Economics • Ending recovery growth (slower output growth, inconsistent nature of economic activity). • Growing unfavorable momentum in foreign economic ope- rations, the external debt repayment schedule still being tense. • Growing need for new external fnancing. • Accumulating crisis disproportions in the labor market (spe- cifcally, labor shortage). Public opinion • Drop in the number of supporters of a union with Russia and increased number of proponents of European integration. • Slightly poorer assessments of the economic situation in the country and the economic status of householDs. Since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint enDeavor of the Belarusian expert community to com- pile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contem- porary history. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2020 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists rep- resenting various think tanks, including the Institute of Politi- cal Studies “Political Sphere”, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), Belarusian Institute for Public Administration Reform and Transformation (BIPART), School of Young Mana- gers in Public Administration (SYMPA), Minsk Dialogue Expert BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 7 Initiative, Ostrogorski Centre, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), MACROCENTER Macroeco- nomic Research Center, Belarus Security Blog analytical proj- ect, Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism (Kyiv), Institute of International Relations (Warsaw, Poland), Belarusian Analytical Workroom (BAW, Warsaw), Public Bologna Committee, Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal (Vilnius), and the web- site of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (“Our Opinion”). 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2020 S T A T E AUTHORITIES PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION: PREPARING FOR THE SIXTH PRESIDENTIAL TERM Nikolai Burov Summary In 2019, the Presidential Administration of Belarus made determined ef- forts to get ready for upcoming challenges, primarily to ensure Alexan- der Lukashenko’s re-election in a diffcult socio-economic and political situation. An attempt was made to reconsider the ideological compo- nent of domestic policy, reinforce the ideological platform and provide Follow-up inFormation and analytical support For the presiDential verti- cal. The composition of the ADministration was consiDerably reneweD. However, the Administration’s efforts were ineffective largely due to the inertia of the vertical and the conservative position of the head of state. As a result, the most important tasks — creation of an ideological platform for the presidential campaign, personnel policy, development of a new version of the law on public service and possible amenDments to the Constitution — have been performed in a highly conservative way. Trends: • Increasing problem of poor professionalism of the presidential vertical; • Request for ideological backing in the diffcult socio-economic and foreign policy situation; • Political emphasis on the preservation oF the inDepenDence anD so- vereignty of Belarus; • Renewal of the PresiDential ADministration leaDership as a conceptual solution. Ideological platform update One of the paramount tasks of the Presidential Administration in 2019 was to provide ideological backup to the parliamenta- ry and the future presidential elections. Two main propaganda STATE AUTHORITIES 11 emphases were chosen out of several options: first, to highlight the merits of the incumbent president in overcoming the crisis of the 1990s (Alexander Lukashenko spoke about this when visi- ting the Presidential Academy of Public Administration on Oc- tober 18, and addressing the upper and lower chambers of the parliament on December 5), and, second, to emphasize the value of Belarus’ independence and sovereignty, which only the in- cumbent president can guarantee. Attempts to add other topics failed. Much hope was pinned on the possible propaganda effect of the 2nd European Games, but the public remained generally inDiFFerent about them. The work with petitions fled by individuals who point at lo- cal issues was used, as always, as a tool to legitimize the sitting government. Once again, the Administration was instructed to closely monitor the compliance with the requirement to quickly respond to people’s complaints. To this end, monitoring groups were