1 THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE Vilnius, Lithuania August, 2020 THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW 2 ANDREI YAHORAU Senior analyst of the Centre for European transforma- tion. Master of Political Science. A. Yahorau graduated from Belarusan State University, department of political science, and holds a master’s degree in political science. He has been working in the political research area since 2001. Andrei Yahorau is one of the founders of the only specialized political science magazine in Belarus “Politi- cal sphere” (Palitychnaja Sfera) and he is the magazine’s deputy editor. Since 2005 he has been an expert and the head of analytical group of the Humanitarian Techniques Agency. Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime, tained and severely beaten, and the beatings established as a result of a constitutional and torture continued at places of detention. coup in 1996, is currently facing the most se- The authorities’ goal was to quickly suppress rious political crisis in all the years of its ex- the protests; their tactics, however, produced istence. After the cynically rigged election on effects opposite to those intended. People on 9 August 2020, masses of people took to the the streets began to respond to the violence streets of their cities to protest. The official- by confronting the police. On the second day ly announced results of the election in which of protests, that is, on 10 August, protesters Lukashenko won 80.1 % of the vote, while his began erecting barricades in the streets of main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, received Minsk; in some cases, the confrontation be- just 10.1 %, radically diverged from the views of tween police and protesters lasted for several the majority of Belarusians. The gap between hours. The violence continued over the next the apparent number of supporters of change two days; the number of detainees exceeded and the election results triggered mass pro- 7 thousand people, and two people died. tests. In the entire history of the country’s in- Large industrial enterprises (BelAZ, Grodno dependence, the authorities have not encoun- Azot, BMZ, MTZ, and others) joining protests tered anything similar, neither in terms of the on 11–13 August, as well as protests ex- number of protesters, in terms of geography, panding in geography to almost 50–60 cities nor in terms of the duration of the protests. forced the authorities into temporary retreat. On the evening of the first day of the protests, On 13 August, Natalya Kochanova, chairper- that is, on the evening of 9 August, the author- son of the upper house of the parliament (un- ities responded with unprecedented violence til 2019, she had been the head of the Presi- against the protesters. For the first time, rub- dent Administration), announced the release ber bullets, stun grenades, and water cannons of some of the detainees (and they began were used against them. Protesters were de- to release them) and called for de-escala- THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW 3 tion. Street violence temporarily stopped, but in the event of increased instability indicates protesters organised mass flash mobs and the instability of his position. This situation formed solidarity chains. The symbolic ac- creates enormous risks for the independence tions of women in white, lining up along the of Belarus. At the same time, the provision of streets in many cities, were particularly strik- such assistance by Russia will critically un- ing. It was noteworthy that street protests dermine the existing pro-Russian sympathies began to spread to residential areas of large of Belarusians. The protests do not have any cities, visually present everywhere. This re- pronounced geopolitical orientation: they duced the effect of state propaganda, which cannot be called pro-Western or anti-Russian. sought to represent the protests as protests The masses of people only take to the streets of a small number of people, to nothing. to demand Lukashenko’s resignation and the appointment of new elections. By the sixth and the seventh day of the pro- tests, the number of enterprises on strike had Until now, the issue of political representation grown to two dozen enterprises, including of protesters remains a significant problem. major industrial giants. A partial erosion of The symbolic trio, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the vertical power structure began. Belarus Veronika Tsepkalo, and Maria Kolesnikova, state TV workers joined the strike; heads of who actually represented the united forces some state institutions, Belarusian ambassa- of change during the election campaign, fell dors to Switzerland and Slovakia expressed apart after the departure of Svetlana Tikha- their support for protesters. On Sunday, novskaya and Veronika Tsepkalo. The po- 16 August, mass rallies were held in Minsk litical leadership vacuum created problems and most cities of Belarus. After eight days of with regard to the political representation of protests, the number of protesters grew from protesters, who had no established demands tens of thousands to about 500,000 people in for several days. It was only on the fifth day the capital and, probably, to 1 million people of the protests that the headquarters of Ma- in the whole country. The geography of the ria Kolesnikova, as well as Svetlana Tikha- protests expanded to almost all cities. novskaya herself publicly announced their demands to the authorities, which, in short, What is happening in Belarus can surely be were as follows: an end to the violence, the re- called a democratic revolution. However, lease of all political prisoners, the resignation a radical change in the situation in favour of Lukashenko and the appointment of new of protesters has not yet come. Lukashenko elections. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya stated the continues to control central and local author- need to create a Coordination Council, which ities, as well as national security, defence, had to include representatives of citizens’ or- and law enforcement agencies. Not a single ganisations and associations. Such a Coor- high-ranking official has yet sided with pro- dination Council could become a representa- testers, and no cases of law enforcement of- tive body of protesters and a potential group ficers refusing to carry out orders have been capable of negotiating with Lukashenko on recorded. Lukashenko’s appeal to Russia and his resignation. Vladimir Putin with a request to refer to the CSTO mandate and to provide security as- On 14 August, an extraordinary meeting of sistance to Belarus in suppressing protests EU foreign ministers, convened at the initia- THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW 4 tive of Poland and Lithuania, stated that the tlement are positive initiatives, although the presidential election in Belarus was not free acceptability of such a scenario for the Belar- and fair; however, it did not call the sitting usian authorities remains unclear. president illegitimate. Ministers also agreed The forced stay of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in on the need to sanction those responsible for Lithuania creates opportunities for the Lithua- the violence, repression and falsification of nian government to establish direct contacts election results. Taking into account the un- with her. Taking into account the absolute derstandable EU desire to increase pressure necessity to support Tikhanovskaya in Lithu- on the Lukashenko regime, it should be rec- ania, as well as the necessity of humanitarian ognised that there are controversial aspects support for victims of repression and symbol- with regard to a sanctions decision as well. ic solidarity with protesters, official Lithuania, Sanctions cannot have immediate effects on nevertheless, should avoid public alliances the development of the current political crisis, with Tikhanovskaya. Such actions will have and they are only of symbolic importance. a negative effect on the development of the More decisive EU involvement in the current situation in Belarus, as they could provide situation is necessary, including the follow- Belarusian and Russian propaganda with an ing: extensive measures of diplomatic pres- additional reason to present the events in Be- sure on sector ministries in cooperation with larus as inspired by the West. the EU; temporary suspension of assistance programmes, including programmes of inter- Now, for the first time in a quarter of a cen- national financial institutions (WB, EIB, EBRD) tury, the situation in Belarus is in the hands and international organisations (UNDP, WHO); of the Belarusian people. The victory of the creation of a working group on the current sit- democratic forces has never been so close; uation in Belarus, including representatives however, it is too early to write off the Lu- of EU institutions, ministries of foreign af- kashenko regime. Today, two choices remain fairs of EU countries, international organisa- for Lukashenko: negotiations with protesters tions (CoE, OSCE), as well as Belarusian civil or the announcement of a state of emergen- society representatives and representatives cy. In the second case, the consequences will of expert organisations. The proposals of be unpredictable for the country. Lithuania and Poland to mediate in crisis set- THE PROTESTS IN BELARUS: INSIGHTS FROM MINSK AND THE WESTERN VIEW 5 EDWARD LUCAS Edward Lucas is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He was formerly a senior editor at The Economist. Lucas has covered Central and Eastern European affairs since 1986, writing, broad- casting, and speaking on the politics, economics, and se- curity of the region. A graduate of the London School of Economics and long-serving foreign correspondent in Ber- lin, Vienna, Moscow, and the Baltic states, he is an interna- tionally recognized expert on espionage, subversion, the use and abuse of history, energy security and information warfare.