WeBsite of the expeRt Community of BeLARus Nashe MNeNie 1 (‘Our OpiNiON’) AgenCy foR soCiAL And poLitiCAL expeRt AppRAisAL Belarusian Y e a r b o o k 2017 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2016 Lohvinaŭ Vilnius 2017 2 Belarusian YearBook 2017 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova english version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov english version edited by Max Nuijens scientific reviewers and consultants: Oleg Manaev, Doctor of sociology (independent institute of socio- economic and Political studies – iisePs); Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (laboratory of axiometrical research noVak); Alexei Pikulik, Doctor of Political sciences (Belarusian institute for strategic studies – Biss), Irina Dounaev, Ph. D. (independent expert); Olga Shparaga, Ph. D., associate Professor (european College of Liberal Arts in Belarus – eClaB); Andrei Kazakievich, Doctor of Political sciences (institute of Political studies “Political sphere”); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian economic research and outreach Center – BEROC); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the slovak annual Global Report). Prepress by: Stefani Kalinowskaya The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. © Website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2017 issn 1822-4091 © agency for social and Political expert appraisal, 2017 © logvino literaturos namai, 2017 3 CONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 7 State Authorities Nikolay Burov Presidential administration: expecting a miracle 13 Ina Ramasheuskaya Government: economic necessity vs. social obligations 21 Andrei Porotnikov national defense: self-reliance is the only option 29 Andrei Kazakievich Parliament: Changes without consequences? 37 Dmitry Kukhlei local authorities: stronger representative vertical and heavier economic responsibility 45 Dmitry Bryukhovetsky nongovernmental organizations: How to fit in the trajectory? 53 4 Belarusian YearBook 2017 ForeigN policy Anatoly Pankovski Belarus – russia: Towards a revision of the alliance 61 Denis Melyantsov Belarus – european union: quantity doesn’t translate to quality 67 Andrei Fyodarau Belarusian-american relations: Disturbing outlook against the background of positive developments 75 Anna Maria Dyner Poland and Belarus: a new opening? 83 Oleg Bogutsky Belarus – ukraine: Period of ‘mature partnership’ 91 Andrei Yeliseyev Belarus and Developing Countries: logical stagnation 100 SOCIETy Yury Chausov Civil society: From crisis to development in a different environment 111 5 Valeria Kostyugova Political Parties: Development under a low ceiling 120 Elena Artiomenko Media: a lack of consistent media policy in a changing geopolitical situation 129 Mikhail Doroshevich, Marina Sokolova ‘Digital transformation’: To what extent is the country ready to embrace it? 136 Vladimir Dounaev education policy: The power of old decisions made by someone else 144 Andrei Laurukhin state Program of innovative Development: Back to the old track 152 Natalia Vasilevich The religious sphere: The calm before the storm 160 Andrei Vitushka Health Care: Status quo above all 168 Maxim Zhbankov social parasites and downshifters: counterintuitive culture 177 6 Belarusian YearBook 2017 Borys Tasman sports: The worst olympic year ever 184 Oleg Manaev Public opinion: a growing feeling of instability 191 Natalia Ryabova research and analytical Centers 203 Economy Dmitry Kruk Macroeconomic situation: locked in recession 215 Alexander Mukha Currency Market: stability gained at the cost of private incomes 224 Vladimir Akulich labor market: Trapped in low-paid employment, unemployment and poverty 232 Alexander Autushka-Sikorski energy sector: end of the oil and gas rent era 244 Maria Akulova Foreign investment: Measures to improve the investment climate 251 Vadim Sekhovich real economy: no progress 258 Authors 265 7 EDITORIAL FOREWORD Belarusian Yearbook 2017 presents a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society in 2016. Further immersion into recession, parliamen- tary election, normalization of the relationship with the West amid growing confrontation with russia – these are the main processes that determined last year’s political agenda. The overall situation developed within the basic trends outlined by our experts in the previous Yearbook, and, therefore, within the limits of their forecasts. no fundamental changes were observed in the country’s internal politics. Despite the deepening of the socioeconomic crisis and associated demand of the liberal wing of the ruling class for limited market reforms, the government’s activity was characterized by the negation of the need for institutional transformation. in socioeconomic policy, conservative trends prevailed with the explicit imperative for binding people to their jobs in the inefficient public sector. The lack of proposals and actions to overcome the crisis and reform the economy were feverishly made up for by various control and expropriating measures (see, for example, Decree no. 3 “on the prevention of social parasitism”), which built on ideologically-motivated instructions by the head of state and his administration. limited changes could be observed during the parliamen- tary elections of 2016: political parties enjoyed record represen- tation since 1995. For the first time since 2000, representatives of the party opposition and civil society received seats in the parliament. The number of representatives of the power verti- cal decreased. Furthermore, the traditional cyclicality in the attitude of the authorities to the opposition was broken: previ- ously, in the wake of the presidential elections, the authori- ties built up repressive practices against their opponents and consistently weakened them as a new election cycle started. in 2016, this trend was not observed; moreover, representatives of the broadly understood opposition were granted access to the state media. 8 Belarusian YearBook 2017 However, these changes, aimed to advertize the growth in political pluralism, can hardly be referred to as the commence- ment of political reforms, because they were inconsistent and were traditionally offset by a fair number of countermeasures and restraints (including the ultimate figures for the representation of parties in the parliament, which is not sufficient to engage in collective activities). Progress in Belarus’s foreign policy can only be observed with respect to the relationship with the european union, which has been in the normalization phase since 2014. in 2016, most of the sanctions against Belarusian citizens and companies were lifted, contacts at the top level were renewed, and financial assistance of the european union expanded, along with the agenda for dialogue. The parliamentary elections did not cause a cold spell in the relationship, and even created preconditions for pursuing inter-parliamentary dialogue. amid the improvement of the Belarusian–european rela- tionship, Belarus’s engagement with developing nations was stagnating, whereas its relations with its key partner – the rus- sian Federation – moved into a crisis phase and were revised in many essential areas (military, oil and gas, trade, culture, and political interaction). negative trends that became visible in 2014–2015 grew stronger in the national economy. The recession (which per- sisted) and deterioration of the financial position of companies were further aggravated by the reduction in russian crude oil deliveries by more than 20% due to political and economic dis- crepancies between Minsk and Moscow (it became an important reason behind the drop in Belarus’s GDP). experts also point to the conspicuous reduction in social standards, worsening of the status of households, and growth of social tensions. These trends, along with some others, have been reflected in public opinion. economic health remained unstable, the stance on the authorities became more critical, and the wish for change seemed more explicit. Because there will be no automatic exit from the recession, in 2017, experts forecast that it will continue and, possibly, grow even deeper. The existing economic conditions are serious preconditions for implementing institutional reforms; however, Editorial foreword 9 forecasts are very cautious about these reforms, since the go- vernment’s medium-term planning still rests on its faith in the improvement of the regional economic situation and taking out new loans. The need for coordinating possible economic transforma- tion and traditionally conservative social policy, as well as the need for reducing social tensions, which became obvious in the spring of 2017, will cause one of the critical collisions of the year. in its foreign policy, Belarus will seek to keep its independence (primarily in its relations with russia); however, the possibil- ity of the resumption of repression against opponents of the regime, alongside the insufficient dividends that Minsk derives from the normalization of its relations with the West set certain limitations in his area. since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint act of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptua- lize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2017 were independent