WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS NASHE MNENIE 1 (‘OUR OPINION’) AGENCY FOR SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXPERT APPRAISAL BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2015 Lohvinaŭ Vilnius 2016 2 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 3 CONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 7 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova STATE AUTHORITIES Nikolai Burov English version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Taciana Tuluš Presidential Administration: English version edited by Max Nuijens Guarding the bankrupt ‘Belarusian way’ 13 Scientific reviewers and consultants: Ina Ramasheuskaya Oleg Manaev, Doctor of Sociology (Independent Institute of Socio- Economic and Political Studies); Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of Sociology The Kobyakov Cabinet: Circular firing squad 20 (Laboratory of Axiometrical Research NOVAK); Alexei Pikulik, Doctor of Political Sciences (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies — BISS), Irina Andrei Porotnikov Dounaeva, Ph. D. (independent expert); Olga Shparaga, Ph. D., Associate National defense in the context of regional threats 26 Professor (European College of Liberal Arts in Belarus (ECLAB)); Andrey Kazakevich, Doctor of Political Sciences (Institute of Political Studies Dzmitry Kukhlei Political Sphere); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center — BEROC); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Representative bodies: The parliament Program Director of the Slovak annual Global Report). of foreign affairs and Myasnikovich’s senate 35 Prepress by Stefani Kalinowskaya Oleh Fedotov Transparency of general jurisdiction courts: The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not Not always, not for everyone 44 necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. Dmitry Bruchovetsky Government Non-Governmental Organizations: A ‘dirty job’ goes to those who failed 52 FOREIGN POLICY 59 © Website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2016 © Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal, Anatoly Pankovski 2016 ISSN 1822-4091 © Logvino Literaturos namai, 2016 Belarus and Russia: From brotherhood to alliance 61 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 5 Dzianis Melyantsou Vladimir Dounaev Belarus – European Union: ‘Détente’ 2.0 72 Education: Between reforms and nostalgia for the ‘golden age’ 156 Andrei Fyodarau Belarusian-American relations: Andrei Laurukhin Changes are positive, prospects are vague 82 Science and innovation in times of crisis: To be or not to be? 164 Anna Maria Dyner Poland and Belarus: Natallia Vasilevich Cooperation of regions Religious sphere: as the engine of bilateral relations 90 Prayer for Belarus, prayer for Lukashenko? 171 Oleg Bogutsky Andrej Vitushka Belarus – Ukraine: Partnership beyond unions 98 Public Health: Consolidation and persistence 179 Andrei Yeliseyeu Belarus and developing countries: Maxim Zhbankov South Asia in priority 107 From a Nobel to GaraSH: self-constructing, independent culture 187 SOCIETY Barys Tasman Yury Chausov Sports during a crisis 195 Civil society: New geopolitical realities Yuri Drakokhrust and challenges of financial stability 117 Public Opinion: Back to Reality 204 Valeria Kostyugova Andrei Vardomatski Opposition parties and the presidential election: Self-withdrawal from the legal political process 127 Adaptation without borders. Full-year 2015 results 215 Alena Artsiomenko The Election and the Crisis ECONOMY as Determinants of Mass Media Functioning 138 Dzmitry Kruk Mikhail Doroshevich, Marina Sokolova Macroeconomic Situation: WWW: The limits of developing extensive infrastructure 146 Diving into a long recession 227 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 7 Alexandr Mukha EDITORIAL FOREWORD Money Market: Under pressure of the oil factor and debt burden 240 Belarusian Yearbook 2016 presents a comprehensive analysis Uladzimir Valetka of the key developments and current status of the main sectors Labor Market and Social Security: of the state and society in 2015. Three processes determined the political agenda last year – the presidential election, Who bears the burden of the economic downturn? 248 normalization of Belarus’s relationship with the West, and the economic recession. Aliaksandr Autushka-Sikorski According to observers, the 2015 presidential campaign was Energy Sector: not fundamentally different from previous campaigns to elect Energy rent plummets 259 the head of state due to vote rigging and fraud. However, the conflict-free environment of the election and the release of Maria Akulova political prisoners contributed to the normalization of Belarus’s Foreign Investment: relationships with the European Union and the United States. Only loans remain 265 Official Minsk’s most significant progress last year was in its foreign policy. Belarus’s neutral position on the conflicts involving Vadim Sekhovich Russia, its closest ally, which the country has maintained since 2013, grew even stronger in 2015. Minsk became a negotiating Real Economy: platform that welcomed a high-level diplomatic group of four A period of losses and expectations 273 countries (Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine) in a bid to resolve the crisis in the east of Ukraine. AUTHORS 280 The Eastern Partnership summit in Riga was relatively successful for Minsk as well. The agenda for Belarus’s relations with the EU deepened and expanded, and Russia had to put up with Minsk’s growing autonomy in foreign policy and build relations with Belarus based on Minsk’s new status. Furthermore, Minsk seeks to strengthen its position internationally by promoting contacts with Asia, especially in the security sector, where collaboration with that region proved to be quite successful. However, foreign policy progress did not help the authorities effectively address the main challenge – the degradation of the socioeconomic system. The lack of political will to introduce reforms alongside the wait-and-see attitude that replaces a strategic plan to develop the national economy aggravated the recession. The manufacturing sector, labor market, trade, and social sector were the most affected segments. New sectors that are little associated with the state – IT, telecoms, pharmaceuticals, etc. – succeeded the most. 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 Editorial Foreword 9 The authorities chose to tackle the economic decline by Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2016 were independent tightening controls, demanding more money from business analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various and citizens, and going back on their obligations. There were think tanks, including the Belarusian Institute for Strategic no other significant changes in Belarus’s internal policy last Studies (BISS), the Research Center of the Institute for year. At the level of public opinion, those developments – in the Privatization and Management, the Independent Institute of context of the economic crisis – affected the social optimism Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS), the Belarusian indicators. Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), the Most of the authors of the Yearbook have little optimism Institute of International Relations (Warsaw, Poland), the about the future, seeing no prerequisites for overcoming the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), eBelarus crisis in 2016. According to the forecasts provided by the book, Research Center, the Belarus Security Blog analytical project, the authorities still expect a positive change in the situation the Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal, and the and believe their control and extortion measures have enough website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (‘Our capacity. Therefore, the group of reformers, who made their first Opinion’). timid moves in the government in 2015, will hardly step up their activities in 2016. Structural reforms will be very unlikely, and the authorities will only try to mitigate imbalances, for example by selling some state assets and cutting directed lending. Experts doubt that political institutions other than the president – the government, parliament, and courts – will increase their political weight. Therefore, their forecasts regarding the upcoming elections to the House of Representatives of the National Assembly remain skeptical – they are expected to be completely controlled by the state, while the lower house will be formed by nominees of the ruling class. The third sector will hardly show any serious progress, as social pessimism and the invariably rigid framework for the operation of the private sector mean civil and political activity will not intensify in 2016. In Belarus’s social policy, controls will remain amid further reductions of state obligations. Positive forecasts only pertain to foreign policy: in 2016, Minsk’s independence as an international player will likely strengthen; however, in the foreseeable future, this process will not have sufficient capacity for political institutions inside the country to be emancipated. Since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a crucial annual initiative of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history. 10 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 11 STATE AUTHORITIES 12 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2016 13 PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION: GUARDING THE BANKRUPT ‘BELARUSIAN WAY’ Nikolai Burov Summary Throughout 2015, the Presidential Administration successfully blocked all attempts to carry out market or even pseudo-market reforms of the wrecked