Belarusians’ views on the political crisis Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 14 and 20 January 2021 Notes on methodology We surveyed a total of 926 respondents between 14 and 20 January 2021. Our sample’s composition corresponds to the general structure of Belarus's urban population in terms of gender, age, and the size of respondents’ town of residence. The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Although various sources claim that only 75–82 percent of the population of Belarus use the web, internet users do remain more economically and socially active. Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, as Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well additional risks faced by the researchers who collaborated for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible. The statistical margin of error of our sample of 926 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.22%. All answers of all respondents are available as a SAV file. Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 2 QUESTION 1 Did you vote for in the Belarusian presidential elections in August 2020? 23.2% Yes No 76.8% Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 3 QUESTION 2 Which candidate did you vote for in the Belarusian presidential elections? Aliaksandr Lukashenka 11.2% 0.5% 21.2% Siarhei Cherachen Hanna Kanapatskaya 13.0% 1.1% 0.5% Andrey Dzmitryeu 2.2% Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya None of the above I destroyed my ballot or removed it from the polling station I decline to answer 50.4% Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 4 QUESTION 3 In your opinion, which of the people on the list would make a good president of Belarus? Choose up to three answers 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Maxim Znak 0.7% Maria Kalesnikava 8.2% Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 11.2% Veranika Tsapkala 0.8% Valery Tsapkala 9.6% Alexander Lukashenka 23.9% Andrey Dmitriyeu 2.1% Pavel Latushka 18.3% Anatol Liabedzka 0.6% Zianon Pazniak 2.4% Siarhei Tsikhanouski 8.6% Maksim Bogrecov 0.4% Vladimir Makei 4.4% Natalya Kochanova 1.3% Yury Karayeu 1.1% Vladimir Karanik 1.3% Syarhey Rumas 7.3% Kirill Rudy 0.1% Viktar Babaryka 35.3% Mykola Statkevich 4.2% Pavel SevyaryneC 1.4% No one 19.3% Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 5 QUESTION 4 Which of these people do you think would make the best president of Belarus? 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Maxim Znak 0.3% Maria Kalesnikava 4.2% Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 4.0% Veranika Tsapkala 0.1% Valery Tsapkala 3.7% Alexander Lukashenka 27.4% Andrey Dmitriyeu 1.3% Pavel Latushka 12.1% Anatol Liabedzka 0.1% Zianon Pazniak 1.3% Siarhei Tsikhanouski 5.8% Vladimir Makei 2.3% Natalya Kochanova 0.4% Yury Karayeu 0.1% Vladimir Karanik 0.6% Syarhey Rumas 4.3% Viktar Babaryka 28.8% Mykola Statkevich 2.1% Pavel SevyaryneC 1.0% Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 6 QUESTION 5 How do you feel about the protests against the current government? 19.7% Completely negative 25.4% Rather negative I'm not sure 16.5% Rather positive 18.6% Completely positive 19.8% Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 7 QUESTION 6 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the events that have taken place in Belarus in the past months? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% I’m convinced that the election results were fraudulent 61.3% 24.8% 13.8% I fully support peaceful protests 58.6% 24.5% 16.9% Even if the elections weren’t completely transparent, I’m still happy with the 21.6% 18.0% 60.4% results overall I believe that the security agencies resorted to unjustified and excessive 67.2% 18.5% 14.3% force when breaking up protests on 9-11 August The actions of law enforcement during the break-up of protests was largely 20.1% 16.0% 63.9% justified Violence against protesters must stop immediately 70.3% 17.2% 12.5% I believe that the events of 9-11 August at the detention centre on Okrestina 60.1% 26.8% 13.2% Street should be considered torture I believe that the scale of violations committed by law enforcement officers 24.6% 22.6% 52.8% has been somewhat exaggerated Agree Unsure Disagree Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 8 QUESTION 6 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the events that have taken place in Belarus in the past months? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% I believe that protesters should have been dealt with even more harshly 10.6% 12.8% 76.7% I would agree to an amnesty for law enforcement officers who used 30.8% 38.7% 30.4% excessive force against protesters if it would hasten the departure of… I sometimes feel that I haven't done enough to help overthrow the 39.8% 47.4% 12.9% Lukashenka regime I believe that the government should negotiate with those who don’t agree 70.2% 18.2% 11.6% with the election results I think that protest activities are starting to wind down 51.1% 22.9% 26.0% The government’s refusal to partiCipate in negotiations Could lead to an 57.0% 27.1% 15.9% inCrease in violenCe from both sides If the government refuses to negotiate, we risk ending up in a civil war 43.5% 32.7% 23.8% An increase in violence from the government will sooner or later cause 54.1% 29.2% 16.7% protesters to respond in kind Agree Unsure Disagree Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 9 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% There are too many civil servants and government bodies in Belarus 3.2%3.2% 13.2% 31.8% 48.5% Most money in Belarus goes to Minsk; not much remains for regional capitals, let 2.6%8.3% 25.2% 38.6% 25.3% alone district Centres Loss-making government enterprises should be shut down, even if it leads to 9.2% 24.0% 25.9% 26.7% 14.1% growth in unemployment for 3-6 months Belarus is dealing with the economic crisis better than its neighbours 33.9% 24.7% 23.6% 13.5% 4.3% Belarus has good conditions for fostering business and entrepreneurship 32.8% 29.9% 19.4% 14.9% 2.9% The vast majority of government officials, including powerful ones, are incompetent 3.6% 12.8% 21.4% 33.8% 28.4% and do not possess the necessary knowledge and skills to run a government I often feel uncomfortable or ashamed of some of Lukashenka's words and deeds 6.7% 7.9% 16.5% 21.9% 47.0% Alexander Lukashenka personally controls all aspects of government 2.5%6.6% 17.1% 29.1% 44.7% It was Alexander Lukashenka who saved the economy and manufacturing sector 29.3% 19.3% 19.5% 20.4% 11.5% from collapse Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 10 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Anyone who publicly opposes Lukashenka will be persecuted by the 4.3%8.2% 18.9% 25.7% 42.9% government There are government officials in Belarus who would make a better 5.3% 9.3% 26.1% 33.2% 26.1% president than Lukashenka, but they are afraid to stand as a candidate Alexander Lukashenka is close to the people and sticks up for their interests 46.9% 15.4% 17.5% 12.8% 7.6% Alexander Lukashenka is incapable of reforming Belarus’s political system 6.8% 8.6% 23.1% 20.5% 41.0% in a way that refleCts the wishes of most Belarusians Alexander Lukashenka mostly makes the right decisions, but they are 34.8% 18.1% 22.1% 19.6% 5.4% executed badly A president should not be in power for longer than two terms in a row 6.4%6.7% 12.8% 22.1% 52.0% Ordinary citizens of Belarus have no protection against arbitrary treatment 5.6%7.5% 13.4% 23.2% 50.4% from the government The government's response to the current protests is completely justified 41.1% 16.3% 18.5% 14.8% 9.3% Government bodies are not properly investigating the acts of violence 5.0%6.5% 19.3% 17.8% 51.4% perpetrated by law enforcement officers against protesters Disagree completely Mostly disagree I’m not sure Mostly agree Agree completely Chatham House | The Royal Institute of International Affairs 11 QUESTION 7 To what extent, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Following the August elections, law enforcement officers used excessive 6.8% 8.7% 13.0% 19.3% 52.2% force The law has stopped functioning in Belarus for the last half year 6.9% 11.9% 19.8% 20.3% 41.0% Babaryka, Znak, Kolesnikova, Tsikhanousky, and a number of others were 8.0% 7.3% 22.0% 19.3% 43.4% jailed unjustly and baselessly Belarus is handling the coronavirus pandemiC well 30.6% 26.9% 16.3% 22.0% 4.2% Belarus's healthcare system functions better than neighbouring countries’ 21.3% 26.6% 21.8% 24.9% 5.4% Very many talented people have left the country since the elections 4.5%8.2% 17.3% 29.4% 40.5% In today's Belarus, anyone who wants to work can 21.3% 34.3% 8.4% 23.7% 12.3% Belarus’s educational system works better than neighbouring countries’ 17.7% 28.0% 25.6% 24.1% 4.7% The ban on leaving the country for Belarusian citizens will help the country 39.8% 24.6% 14.9%